They all went away quicker than this one didn’t they? Stupid people are making this one stick around for ever

I guess we'll have to see. The Spanish flu, the Hong Kong flu and SARS all took years to contain.

What is your estimate of the number of lives saved through the mitigation steps taken Australia, versus the cost of those steps, so far Mick?

Round thousands of lives and round billions in cost.

Back of the napkin, lives saved would have to run to around 47,500 - 48,000 (that's taking the US/UK deaths/million rate and applying to our population less the number of deaths we've had). What would you put the cost at? The $311 billion budget number for government relief and support? That'd be around $6.5 million per life saved in crude terms.

This is the problem, lockdowns to most of you are the go to solution. F$&k that no lockdown let it go let’s experience what Italy and UK had ppl need to see what this virus can actually do. Make rest of Australia close to NSW costing 1 Billion a week let everyone see shop fronts boarded up The Ppl need to see hard reality. Ppl scared of getting vaccine because of BS they see on Facebook or Instagram without reading the real facts Then, the ppl will realize there is only one way out and that’s the jab. Plenty of AZ waiting to be used also Pfizer on the way. NSW could very well be the only state open to international by 2023 whilst rest of the country keep open close over 1 case of the next Delta variant.

This eradication rubbish by keep closing major city’s is not the solution 18 months on and we are in no better position then when this started.

And I am waiting to see what happens when the UK ‘goes rouge’. Let’s all have a Summer Holiday.

I predict it’s going to be a disaster. I hope I’m wrong.

It certain that the cost is far (far) more than the 'government' - do you mean Federal alone? - budget for just 'relief and support'. Given your obviously well-informed and researched posts, I'm surprised you'd price it on that very narrow basis.

I reckon Australia's 'let it rip' rate would have been lower than the UK and USA, given demographic differences, but I'll accept your numbers for 'back of napkin' purposes.

(SOPS: It's "goes rogue", not "goes rouge". The latter is a cosmetic...)

Yes, I just ran the Federal budget numbers there, at least in part for the sake of getting back to you in a reasonable timeframe. I'll have a further look at it over the next few days and look to roll in the state spending but there's at least a starting point there - we're going to be looking at something in the order of around $10+ million per life 'saved'.

The problem with trying to cost this thing beyond a fairly simple, fairly narrow basis is that calculations rapidly become complex. Even doing just lives saved versus federal government spending is a bit flaky in that it ignores the cost of a death, even if it's just in terms of whether there's a net cost/benefit to government (beyond that there's almost certainly a cost to the economy).

If you try to do it on a GDP basis then that needs to be comparative as well. We've doubtlessly spent more at the government level but our bounce-back in terms of GDP has been comparatively stellar. You'd have to ask if we were clocking over 30,000, 40,000 or 50,000 deaths what would that look like in terms of business confidence, productivity, and the like.

As I said, as soon as you start breaking out from the super-simple approach the calculations get super-messy.

Yep, 35,000 cases overnight, with Wimbledon and the England v Italy Euro Cup Final tomorrow it should go ballistic. A Kent Dr that does regular Covid updates on his
Youtube channel predicting 100,000 cases in the next couple of weeks. What will Boris do? We will see how hospitalisation go as well. They are up to 50% vaccinations
so this could be an eye opener or a trial when we get to the 50% mark. Glady's is in dreamworld regarding her 80% figure.

Gosh you really love to promulgate some fear mate. I reckon you’re going to need plastic sheets with all the bed wetting nonsense you sprout here.

Sweden with no lockdowns, schools mostly open, little mask wearing has had 14,000 deaths and a population of 10mil.

Population is centered in cities but unlike Australia most people live in apartments and not houses. So for 25 mil in Australia would have been 35-40k. If it behaves the same way.

However that doesn’t count those deaths that were of the old and at risk who were likely in their last days and wouldn’t survive a bad cold let alone a 2 year covid pandemic.

No one seems to be able to explain why Singapore has 36 deaths from 60k cases.

Sorry.. spell check got me.

We will wait and see.

My understanding is that they took a pre-emptive approach to hospitalisations. On top of their very aggressive early testing regime they pre-emptively hospitalised anyone 45 and over who returned a positive test regardless of whether they were exhibiting symptoms or not. You can probably add the relatively compliant culture to that.

Because Asia is regularly exposed to seasonal coronaviruses they have a better innate immunity than European countries.

the days of mass casualties in overrun hospitals are over. Doctors have a good list of therapies now including corticosteroids, zinc and Vitamin D supplements, monoclonals..and other things..

they no longer send Covid patients home with useless remdesivir to wait it out.

Your information on Sweden is VERY wrong!

Many many months ago "people" all said that Sweden had it right with "no lockdowns" but even Sweden admitted they had it wrong.

Schools were shut (most) and they had very stringent travel restrictions (no more than 2km from memory) for a long time - cell phone were used for tracking!

Life was not normal in Sweden.

Many countries have "low" death numbers v COVID cases, there are a number of ways to count the deaths I assume?

But more telling is there are many countries with little or no resources to fight COVID and 12/18 months later the villages and small towns are not noticeably devastated. Australia did some testing in PNG and that result was 50% COVID positive many months ago now.

Can you provide a reference for that? I have family in Sweden with school age children and not once have they mentioned those sorts of restrictions or events. At one point they wanted to keep their children home from school and government authorities threatened action against them if they did so (not really good for Australian's living there that can't easily return home).

For the record I (and my family) don't disagree that the Swedish government got things wrong. Neighbouring countries shut their borders for a while to Sweden and the Swedes also got to a point where they were asking their neighbours for assistance with hospital admissions as their own were approaching capacity.

About 55K or the around 63K total cases were from the workers dormitories here in Singapore. They are all mostly young and fit individuals. So do not fall into the age brackets/risk categories most associated with death as a result of the disease the virus causes.

As for the other about 8K which is made up of about 5K of overseas infections and 3K of community since the start of all this, a positive result means it is off to hospital for treatment or if deemed well enough a stay in a community care facility until clear of the virus.

Onya gladys

Ok… the person was 90, however the first death has occurred. Police find people playing cards together.. and IKEA stays open. What wil it take, Gladys?

IKEA has to stay open, what if you recently moved and need furniture, you expect people to live in an empty house with no bed, nothing to sleep on etc. not everyone in a city of 5 million is in the same situation.

The first death in what, 6 months? And she wasn't 90, she was in her 90's, already well past the average life expectancy for someone in their age range, which, IIRC, is somewhere around 82-83. My question - to which there will never be an answer - is "Replace Covid with Influenza, would she have survived that infection?"

While any death is tragic, I cannot fathom why we have, and are continuing, to spend such sums as mentioned by MickG when the Government has placed a specific value on human life for everything else - yet with Covid they've thrown that right out the window and are throwing money around like confetti, with scant regard for who is going to pick up the tab at the end of the party.

If that figure is even close to reality, based on around 45,000 deaths, it is obscene. No person is worth that amount of spending, no matter who they are. The Government's own figure puts a health adult, with 40 years ahead of them at only $6M, and your typical healthy adult is not the one's we are protecting - but they are the ones who are going to be stuck paying this several-hundred-billion-dollar bill for generations to come, and they've got absolutely no say in it!

That's ridiculous, and be buggered if I know what the answer is. There was a group of teens at an 18th party for fuxake! Talking to the inlaws who live down that way, they reckon the Rozzers are now set up with ANPR technology on the roads in and out of their local area - and not a minute too soon, if you ask me.

I might not necessarily agree with lockdowns, et al, but when they're imposed, everyone has an obligation to comply with them.

The Federal Government didn’t spend the money on saving lives.

The Federal Government spent the money on keeping the economy going, to keep people in jobs, and to help business survive.

They did a similar thing a decade ago, and it was generally regarded as a good investment.

The economies of the countries that let covid rip suffered more than Australia’s did.

International aviation and tourism has, however, of course been decimated.

Well, yes and no. You need to remember that the need to keep the economy going was largely driven by the public health decisions that drove closing the international border, the initial lockdown, restrictive practices such as social distancing and the like. They were all aimed at preserving public health (also known as 'saving lives').

But your point shouldn't be lost - any assessment of the efficacy and efficiency of Australia's approach needs to consider both the public health outcomes (deaths, hospitalisations, etc) AND the economic outcome (GDP, unemployment and the like). That economic component was what was missing from the simple dollars spent per lives saved analysis I offered last night.

Vic border to close to NSW at midnight. And people from the NT in NSW being told to come home. Here we go.

You seem to be inferring the data is now past tense. This is far from over. The true cost to economies are not likely to be known for decades. If NZ and Australia don't have some form of exit strategy they will almost certainly be suffering the economic fallout long after other countries are on the path to recovery.

With Delta/Lambda affecting those as young as 15 is the death of anybody affected still a valid strategy?

That seems to be what Marketing and Boris are planning

Quote from NZ Hansard from Thursday this week
"

• Question No. 3—Finance

  3. Dr DUNCAN WEBB (Labour—Christchurch Central) to the Minister of Finance: What recent reports has he seen on the New Zealand economy?
  
  Hon GRANT ROBERTSON (Minister of Finance): I know that this is a popular moment in the day for everybody. The Government's efforts to secure the recovery has been recognised once again by the global ratings agencies. Standard & Poor's global rating said in its mid-year update released yesterday that New Zealand's strong fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic, as well as the confidence in the Government's public health measures, have seen the economy recover much faster than expected. The ratings agency expects New Zealand to outpace its peers in the Asia-Pacific region, noting that economic activity has returned to its pre-pandemic trend in early 2021, making New Zealand one of the first countries to do so.
  
  Dr Duncan Webb: What impact has the economy's recovery had on the labour market?
  
  Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Well, the Government's efforts to secure the recovery are reflected in the jobs market, which is going from strength to strength. The SEEK New Zealand Employment Report increased by 1 percent in June from the previous month to another record high for job advertising numbers. For the year, job ads rose to 115 percent, while job ad numbers are now 24 percent above pre-COVID highs—
  
  Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: On a trend basis, job ads were above pre-COVID levels for all regions. Unemployment has fallen to 4.7 percent, and while there are challenges for businesses in finding workers, this is, in fact, a reflection of a stronger-than-forecast economic activity and the economy operating above pre-COVID levels. The Government will continue to work with businesses to support them as the recovery continues.
  
  Dr Duncan Webb: What other reports has he seen on the New Zealand economy?
  
  Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Thank you very much. The latest global dairy trade auction shows prices are consolidating and actually declining 3.6 percent. The easing in prices comes after strong gains earlier in the year, which is, in turn, due to robust global demand for New Zealand dairy products. Economists are saying that the decline in prices is partly due to strong milk production, which rose 9.3 percent in May, compared to the same month a year ago. For the entire 2020-21 season, production rose 2.7 percent. Commentators expect dairy payouts to farmers to retain near-historic highs in the new season, which is positive for farm incomes, positive for the regions, and positive for the economy overall."
  
  This report from Stats NZ makes interesting reading
  https://www.stats.govt.nz/informatio...h-2021-quarter
  
  My feeling is that the only problems NZ has are outside our direct control
  1. Australia can't control the Covid outbreaks because a cadre of Australians refuse to do as they are told
  2. We have fishing boat crew who arrive in AKL, are transferred by car to NPL, then test positive on the vessel so the vessel has to go to WLG for quarantine. (This one could have been solved if the crew had been refused entry)
  3. Returnees undergo mandatory isolation and are negative on release. They then develop symptoms in the community. (The 14 day incubation period is reported as insufficient for Delta/Lambda)
  

I hear what ur saying,many dont agree with lockdowns but hasnt everyone got an obligation to comply as you say.
I listened to a 35 yr old doctor who got covid last year talking on a melb radio station.
He gave a very in depth account of how it affected him & its taken him 9 months or so to feel normal again.
He stressed highly to get the jab & not only protect yourself but those who you love & cherish most.
For those that disagree,thats your choice but maybe think how it would feel if you were the 1 to pass it to someone you admire or love.

I look forward to the outcome of your further analysis.

But, just as a matter of principle: Are you suggesting that we should put no price on the cost of things like the curtailment of liberties or the mental health implications of the 'lock downs' and other government actions? No price?

It would be nice to be able to reduce all factors to a dollar figure but that often proves difficult, to the extent that it remains one of the largely intractable problems with public policy to this day.

Could we perhaps agree that the costs of the mental health implications, curtailment of liberties and the like are roughly equivalent to the costs of the mental health implications, social dislocation and economic impacts associated with some 40,000-odd excess deaths over the period. That would solve one maths issue.

Liberty is priceless and the government has already missed several payments..it’s time for the people to call in the debt

It’s moments like this I’m glad this libertarian nonsense hasn’t infected Australian culture like it has the USA, and most of us know to do the right thing (most of the time) and contribute to a well functioning society rather than worry about their individual wants. Examples - higher compliance with mask wearing and anti vaxxer/lockdown protests barely noticeable here in Oz.

The fact Qld/WA/NT already have most of their liberties back is a testament to that fact.

I'm chuffed to be able to expose some of the specious arguments of someone who's obviously a formidable intellect.

No: There is no automatic correspondence between the costs of the 'lockdown' and other restrictions imposed on the one hand and the lives saved on the other.

Your argument only begs the question.

I just saw on the News here, pictures of Sydney today. Masses of people out and about, no social distancing, no masks. Is this for real? Is this really happening? If it is, it’s no wonder the case numbers keep going up.

SOPS, it's called covid fatigue. When Melbourne recorded 100 cases it took 16 weeks to get to zero. If Sydney get to 100 tomorrow (as Gladys indicated)
the mental pain just fogs up your brain. That's what lockdowns do, (it's like chemo) it may temporary reduce cases, they also mentally disintegrate you
and stress your wallet and relationships. We are humans and we are meant to be social beasts.

Seems like it:

At one venue, Sydney’s Centennial Park, a visitor said it was “mayhem” with cars and crowds and that she had “never seen it so busy”.at Centennial Park, where the park’s centre was closed off, people crowded around the edges and customers crammed into the cafe without masks while failing to observe social distancing rules.

“It was busier than the Easter Show,” one park visitor, identified as Natasha, said

“Cars were honking horns, we were getting pushed off the footpaths and on to the horse track.

At Bondi, which has had more than 70 “venues of concern” listed by NSW Health, including 20 on the “close contacts” list, maskless people strode the promenade by the beach.

At Double Bay, a personal training group appeared to have done exactly what Premier Berejiklian warned against: “If you are outdoors exercising in a group of ten, make sure the ten doesn’t become 20”.

Elsewhere in Sydney, including at Flemington Markets, people crowded in to do their Saturday morning shopping, while a reader reported that at Darling Square, “every outdoor table and bench is full”, and that Sydney Park was “packed like a normal Saturday”.

And that was a week ago.

The government should’ve locked down earlier and been serious about it rather than saying “pretty please” but the populace have to lift their act, otherwise they’ll be in their “sort of” lockdown until after winter and aviation will continue to be adversely affected.

OK I'll bite because seriously interested.

Short and sweet - what (fairly specifically) would matty do as supreme leader?
Point form great - can expand if required later.
Explaining how to deal with the states/federal conundrum would be appreciated within the (short) answers.

Ta!

What does Sydney not understand ???

I hope this kind of crap isn’t what we have to look forward to when our vaccination rates are around the uk’s current level. But alas I suspect it might be.