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The only thing this has made me realise is that most numpty’s in this country have no idea about statistics and probability. Maybe Mathematics should be emphasised more in the curriculum? Basically what the media have been crapping on about in the last 2 days is exactly the same as a person standing under a tree in a storm and whinging they got struck by lightning. It’s pretty much the same probability.
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If a country removes all restrictions on distancing, masks and testing, the unvaccinated cohort, if subsequently infected, will suffer the same proportional fate that we see now: about 2% die, about 30% have some long tern ill effects, and some fraction of those have a disability. The same bleak outlook that informed our response a year ago remains in play, although with a reduced rate of infection.
I have a few problems with people choosing not to immunised.:They will all eventually burden the health care system to one degree or another. Some will eventually burden the long term care system. Some (after the inevitable sporadic infections) will prevent reliable freedom of movement across borders because of the predictable political response. There will be the attendant economic losses in the travel and hospitality industries that will go unpunished. The subset of the population that is unvaccinated will become a political constituency that may shape policy to the detriment of the greater good. The degree of herd immunity we will accept must must must reflect the degree of vaccine uptake that the will demand of our neighbours. If we as a nation demand a 100% covid safe life then we must demand of each other a 100% immunity. Same as polio, same as small pox. The cost may end up being ten lives lost. The individual risks remain tiny, and should be discussed that way. Few people seem able (or schooled) to perceive risk or chance accurately. |
Originally Posted by Australopithecus
(Post 11021584)
I agree that the incidence of blood clots in general after the Oxford-AZ jab seems to mirror what you'd expect in the same unvaccinated population over the same time, but the rare kind of clotting event, the CVST, seems to be over represented in the data.
The risk is still minuscule compared to the virus, less than shark attacks for surfers/divers, about the same as lightning strike deaths. Much less chance of dying than winning a lottery. As far as herd immunity goes: even the sober scientists at the CDC suggest that more than 70% of the population has to be vaccinated for herd immunity to begin in the USA. Same for Europe. Here, where even a single case triggers panic, you have to expect that total elimination is the only way we can ever again enjoy a robust aviation industry free from the snap lock-downs. That means, by extension, that we are going to need an almost total vaccination uptake. Since that isn’t going to happen without serious coercion, I wonder if the government has mapped out a strategy to force vaccinations regardless of whatever superstitions people harbour? Since the Premiers want a zero-risk Covid response, the only way to avoid more lockdowns is a zero-risk population, which means a 100% immunity program. Otherwise, we are going to be closed to retail international travel forever. Unless of course the various governments re-educate the public about the balance of risks and accept say a flu-like mortality rate. Anecdotally I have had my AZ jab, and have detected no &;)$(6z$$d covfefe. On edit: Ahhh! I smell toast! If you're not at risk, why get vaccinated? Look at the demographics where COVID has the most serious effects. Those already close to or exceeding the average life expectancy. Gee if I was living in a nursing home right now (family visiting once a week if I'm lucky, laying in my own **** for hours, surrounded by other old grogan's) I would be licking every light switch hoping to catch the bug to put me out of my misery. So let's get on with it. Let those who want the vaccine get it and those that don't and accept a level of risk, get back to normal life. |
And there you have it. Ignorance and selfishness in the guise of freedumb. Q.E.D.
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Originally Posted by Australopithecus
(Post 11021628)
If a country removes all restrictions on distancing, masks and testing, the unvaccinated cohort, if subsequently infected, will suffer the same proportional fate that we see now: about 2% die, about 30% have some long tern ill effects, and some fraction of those have a disability. The same bleak outlook that informed our response a year ago remains in play, although with a reduced rate of infection.
I have a few problems with people choosing not to immunised.:They will all eventually burden the health care system to one degree or another. Some will eventually burden the long term care system. Some (after the inevitable sporadic infections) will prevent reliable freedom of movement across borders because of the predictable political response. There will be the attendant economic losses in the travel and hospitality industries that will go unpunished. The subset of the population that is unvaccinated will become a political constituency that may shape policy to the detriment of the greater good. The degree of herd immunity we will accept must must must reflect the degree of vaccine uptake that the will demand of our neighbours. If we as a nation demand a 100% covid safe life then we must demand of each other a 100% immunity. Same as polio, same as small pox. The cost may end up being ten lives lost. The individual risks remain tiny, and should be discussed that way. Few people seem able (or schooled) to perceive risk or chance accurately. You bring up a very valid point. This is the burden of a population pre vaccination rollout. |
Simple. Deny the jab and lose Medicare benefits for COVID related illness plus, financial liability if you cause infection to others. Money is a great motivator.
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JJ789
You are clearly but a child. You obviously have no knowledge of compulsory polio and TB vaccinations in the early 60s for all children. |
Originally Posted by JJ 789
(Post 11021696)
Ridiculous, the government can't force vaccinations. Unless you would like Australia to model itself on China? We're already a nanny state before this whole COVID business. Gee Australian's have become real apathetic pussies.
If you're not at risk, why get vaccinated? Look at the demographics where COVID has the most serious effects. Those already close to or exceeding the average life expectancy. Gee if I was living in a nursing home right now (family visiting once a week if I'm lucky, laying in my own **** for hours, surrounded by other old grogan's) I would be licking every light switch hoping to catch the bug to put me out of my misery. So let's get on with it. Let those who want the vaccine get it and those that don't and accept a level of risk, get back to normal life. |
Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer
(Post 11021905)
No problem. Could you all gather your things and go live on your own island? Antarctica's available. Cheers.
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Originally Posted by JJ 789
(Post 11021696)
Ridiculous, the government can't force vaccinations. Unless you would like Australia to model itself on China? We're already a nanny state before this whole COVID business. Gee Australian's have become real apathetic pussies.
If you're not at risk, why get vaccinated? Look at the demographics where COVID has the most serious effects. Those already close to or exceeding the average life expectancy. Gee if I was living in a nursing home right now (family visiting once a week if I'm lucky, laying in my own **** for hours, surrounded by other old grogan's) I would be licking every light switch hoping to catch the bug to put me out of my misery. So let's get on with it. Let those who want the vaccine get it and those that don't and accept a level of risk, get back to normal life. On the subject of nanny states, still booking people for jaywalking? |
Originally Posted by Buster Hyman
(Post 11021862)
Simple. Deny the jab and lose Medicare benefits for COVID related illness plus, financial liability if you cause infection to others. Money is a great motivator.
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Originally Posted by Buster Hyman
(Post 11021862)
Simple. Deny the jab and lose Medicare benefits for COVID related illness plus, financial liability if you cause infection to others. Money is a great motivator.
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Originally Posted by Vag277
(Post 11021863)
JJ789
You are clearly but a child. You obviously have no knowledge of compulsory polio and TB vaccinations in the early 60s for all children. However I've already been given an exemption by a very understanding doctor so that's a relief working in the aviation industry, but for the rest who feel like they may be "forced", I suggest they look into their rights. |
Originally Posted by JJ 789
(Post 11021969)
However I've already been given an exemption by a very understanding doctor so that's a relief working in the aviation industry, but for the rest who feel like they may be "forced", I suggest they look into their rights.
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Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer
(Post 11021905)
No problem. Could you all gather your things and go live on your own island? Antarctica's available. Cheers.
Could you gather all your things and go live in a totalitarian / authoritarian ****hole? China or North Korea's available. You'd fit right in at the Uygher "re education" camps where the Government decides what medical procedures you will have :ok: |
Originally Posted by turbantime
(Post 11021994)
If you have a condition preventing you from taking the vaccine then I would suggest you are not able to hold a Class 1 medical. Good luck at your next renewal.
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Originally Posted by kingRB
(Post 11022000)
Could you gather all your things and go live in a totalitarian / authoritarian ****hole? China or North Korea's available. You'd fit right in at the Uygher "re education" camps where the Government decides what medical procedures you will have :ok:
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Originally Posted by JJ 789
(Post 11021969)
Again, look at the severity of polio vs COVID. So I pose the question, as an individual in my mid 30's where this virus poses a very small risk, why should I be vaccinated?
However I've already been given an exemption by a very understanding doctor so that's a relief working in the aviation industry, but for the rest who feel like they may be "forced", I suggest they look into their rights. I imagine most countries, including Australia, requiring a vaccination for entry if you don’t want to pay for lengthy quarantine. |
Originally Posted by JJ 789
(Post 11022011)
There's no condition preventing me holding a class 1 medical. As I said, they're a very "understanding" doctor and are pragmatic in their understanding of this pandemic
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Originally Posted by JJ 789
(Post 11021969)
Again, look at the severity of polio vs COVID. So I pose the question, as an individual in my mid 30's where this virus poses a very small risk, why should I be vaccinated?
However I've already been given an exemption by a very understanding doctor so that's a relief working in the aviation industry, but for the rest who feel like they may be "forced", I suggest they look into their rights. 2. You got an exemption for what? As of now there's no requirement to be vaccinated for anything. And as others have pointed out as soon as CASA finds out you have a medical exemption for a vaccine they'll be interested to know what medical condition you have that is so bad you can't get a vaccine but supposedly still can hold a medical. The only conditions I think prevent you from getting vaccinated are those with severe anaphylaxis or those with significant comprised immune systems, both of which I'm sure will prevent you from holding an aviation medical. |
Originally Posted by JJ 789
(Post 11022011)
There's no condition preventing me holding a class 1 medical. As I said, they're a very "understanding" doctor and are pragmatic in their understanding of this pandemic
Might be handy that you’re a pilot, because you know farking nothing about medicine. |
Originally Posted by dr dre
(Post 11022036)
1. You get vaccinated not so much to protect you, but to protect the vulnerable around you by having some level of pre-existing antibodies in your system. You don't contract the virus if exposed or if you do contract it the pre-existing antibodies ensure your illness is asymptomatic or very mild which therefore lessens the risk of spread to more vulnerable people, those who can't be vaccinated, those whom the vaccination didn't produce enough antibodies. It's actually imperative that younger people get vaccinated as they are more mobile and more likely to spread the virus.
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Exemption from the non mandatory vaccine?? Sounds legit
how much you pay for the “exemption”?? |
So a “pragmatic” doctor giving you an exemption for a non-mandatory vaccine which may endanger your aviation medical. Doesn’t sound like a very smart doctor to me.
OR You’re full of sh*t. I’m going with the latter. Reminds me when our airline made masks mandatory for staff (before it become mandatory for pax). There was an uproar from cabin crew and how they would be obtaining exemptions. It was pointed out from our medical officer that if you need an exemption then you’re not suitable for duties on an aircraft. That shut them up quick smart. Now it’s turned to vaccinations and as another poster has pointed out, they’ll need it for international flights and I’d imagine my airline will remove these people from international duties and place them on LWOP. |
Didn’t there used to be a “don’t feed the trolls” sticky on every PPRuNe forum? Something about sciolists IIRC.
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Originally Posted by JJ 789
(Post 11021969)
Again, look at the severity of polio vs COVID. ........
They are different diseases and hard to compare directly, but COVID would appear to be just as serious if not more so than polio. |
More serious than polio, really?
Paralysis is often permanent, although total or partial recovery can occur through compensation by muscles not affected. Weakness or paralysis present 12 months after onset, which occurs in two-thirds of patients with paralysis, is usually The case fatality ratio for paralytic polio is generally 2% to 5% among children and up to 15% to 30% among adolescents and adults. It increases to 25% to 75% with bulbar involvement. |
Careful cherry picking data....
From your source in context:Most people who get infected with poliovirus (about 72 out of 100) will not have any visible symptoms. About 1 out of 4 people with poliovirus infection will have flu-like symptoms that may include:
A smaller proportion of people with poliovirus infection will develop other, more serious symptoms that affect the brain and spinal cord:
--------------- Your sample set is not of the whole population - you have referred to 2-10% of those exhibiting one symptom of "smaller proportion" of 25%. Polio is also predominantly spread via the focal oral route. You can't usually get it just being in the same room as someone else. |
Originally Posted by turbantime
(Post 11022069)
...they’ll need it for international flights and I’d imagine my airline will remove these people from international duties and place them on LWOP. Perhaps they’ll be able to get a transfer to Australian operations only (if applicable for the airline) where I suspect it won’t be mandatory to have a vaccine but that could still involve some restrictions on your movements when in slip port depending on the local health rules in play at the time. |
There's no condition preventing me holding a class 1 medical. As I said, they're a very "understanding" doctor and are pragmatic in their understanding of this pandemic Nope. They’ll be sacked. If having a vaccine is a requirement for entry into the UK, or USA, or Singapore, or anywhere an international pilot flies to, and a pilot refuses the vaccine, then they’re not able to fulfil the ‘inherent requirements’ of the job. Perhaps they’ll be able to get a transfer to Australian operations only (if applicable for the airline) where I suspect it won’t be mandatory to have a vaccine but that could still involve some restrictions on your movements when in slip port depending on the local health rules in play at the time. |
Originally Posted by 1A_Please
(Post 11022448)
AJ has already hinted he may look to a domestic ban on unvaccinated people once the rollout is complete at the end of 2021 so QF will be unlikely to be employing any unvaccinated staff in any customer-facing role.
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Given the border measures required of interstate travellers during flare-ups, would it be surprising if states like WA require a vaccination for all visitors? I would certainly expect something like that if there are more community transmission events.
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The question is whether they have the authority to do so. I’m not convinced they do.
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Originally Posted by JJ 789
(Post 11021969)
...as an individual in my mid 30's where this virus poses a very small risk, why should I be vaccinated?
Originally Posted by JJ 789
(Post 11021969)
However I've already been given an exemption by a very understanding doctor....
“To whom it may concern, this pilot is exempt from COVID vaccination but in all other respects is in excellent health. Sincerely, Dr Duck. |
Article in the Australian, following NZ PM announcement tomorrow could see a no quarantine travel bubble open as early as Friday.
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Originally Posted by patty50
(Post 11021944)
Let’s roll out this theory to all aspects of healthcare consumption. I’ll take my COVID liability if oldies and fatties take on age and fat related illness liability.
Originally Posted by KRviator
(Post 11021964)
So...Uhh, those 8,500 deaths and tens of thousands of instances of lung cancer caused by intentional and voluntary tobacco consumption should cough up (pardon the terrible pun), for their own treatment too?
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Originally Posted by SHVC
(Post 11022616)
Article in the Australian, following NZ PM announcement tomorrow could see a no quarantine travel bubble open as early as Friday.
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Given how good Australia and NZ are doing with the virus having almost eradicated it, which is what ppl want guess. If they fear for their safety now NZ may as well just close up and throw away the key, its time to get on with life.
My concern is how are the arrivals/departures going to be managed? if we have one arrive from Auckland and there is also an ANA/Emirates or China flight arrival are they all let loose in the arrivals hall one flight let loose in the public others off to a hotel after all mingling in close proximity through the terminal. |
Originally Posted by Chris2303
(Post 11022966)
Which is something, anecdotally anyway, that a large number of New Zealanders do not want, fearing for their own safety.
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Originally Posted by SHVC
(Post 11022979)
My concern is how are the arrivals/departures going to be managed? if we have one arrive from Auckland and there is also an ANA/Emirates or China flight arrival are they all let loose in the arrivals hall one flight let loose in the public others off to a hotel after all mingling in close proximity through the terminal.
So I reckon Australia will have this issue well under control. |
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