maybe 2024..Economist Chris Richardson has warned international travel for Australians is likely to remain restrictive until 2024.

The Deloitte Access Economics partner in his quarterly business outlook said he expects international borders will re-open only gradually.

For Australia, there will be some sort of quarantine remaining for incoming travellers for some time.

"That keeps international travel - both inbound and outbound - pretty weak in 2022, and it may not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024," he said.

AJ seems to be pressing on tho, good hopefully it happens.

Qantas holds firm on international travel plan

Qantas is holding firm on its planned return to regular international services on October 31, despite the Prime Minister’s admission the majority of Australians will not be vaccinated against COVID-19 until 2022.

The airline announced in February international flights would recommence to most of its pre-COVID destinations in late October instead of July, based on the federal government’s vaccination program.

At the time, Qantas CEO Alan Joyce said the airline would require passengers on all but domestic and trans-Tasman flights to be vaccinated for their own safety as well as that of crew.

In a statement released late Monday, Qantas said they were “closely monitoring the recent developments in the rollout of vaccines in Australia”.

“The government has not updated its timeline for the effective completion of the vaccine rollout and at this stage there’s no change to the planned restart of our international flights,” said a Qantas spokeswoman.

“We’ll continue to have dialogue with the government.”

It follows the revelation last week there was a small risk of blood clots developing as a result of the AstraZeneca vaccination, prompting a recommendation for people under 50 to discuss the issue with their doctor.

On Friday Scott Morrison announced his government had secured an extra 20 million doses of the Pfizer vaccine, but they would not arrive until the last quarter of 2021.

There is nothing stopping them flying if they want to - why October, why not now? Nothing much will change between now and then.

So, the rollout has been delayed. That should give us plenty of time to figure out what we do once everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated. Personally, I think that once we reach that point then borders need to reopen to vaccinated travellers - otherwise what’s the point of getting vaccinated?

From Melbourne University
https://medicine.unimelb.edu.au/__da...April-2021.pdf

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....43105d14a1.png

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-...ally/100065224

This is from the people who told us, at first, there was nothing to worry about.😷

Well, at first there was nothing to worry about. Stage 3 clinical trials can only be so big, and a risk that is 1:200,000 at worst isn’t likely to appear until after widespread use. Even then, its still a pretty tiny risk for something that could prevent a far worse outcome.

Would you refuse an AZ jab if you lived anywhere but the A-NZ bubble?

Nope! I’ve had AZ the risk is of blood clots is less than the risk my wife takes taking contraceptive.

And the Australian people are putting up with this?

I think at the moment we’re trying to get through this vaccination debacle first.

I think the elephant in the room is most other democracies are ramping up for Quarantine free travel within months, not years. “First in line for vaccines?” Morrison has just showed his true self, a knifer that backstabbed a fellow politician. These idiots face a dramatic fall, not if but when, I think it will be soon. They will be pulled with the rest of the world into opening international travel. The sad fact is we are below the half way mark against all worldwide countries on vaccination rates. “ First in line!” Scotty from marketing is about to see the result of being an incompetent idiot.

I think you are dreaming. Election due in the next 12 months ( approx).. you really think they will open the borders and let it rip.. while we live almost Covid free? I don’t think so.

Every decision will be made with the election in mind.

Can’t call it now because they stuffed up the vaccine rollout.

Can’t leave it to the last minute because that gives the impression that they’re just hanging on hoping things will get better.

Greg Hunt has come out and said that even if we all get the vaccine, that doesn’t mean the borders will open. He is making the case for the poor vaccine rollout: “you still wouldn’t be going anywhere even if we hadn’t stuffed it up, so really our delay is of no consequence.”

Managing expectations - isn’t that what Scotty from Marketing is good at? It will be very interesting to see if the LNP use the “keeping us all safe” line that McGowan used to get back into power.

People are going to vote based on the fact that their relatives in their 70s and 80s haven’t died of COVID rather than obsessing over a lack of international travel. Who cares about travel when your destination is locked down anyway.

Most people aren’t that keen for the vaccine anyway and don’t care it’s being delayed.

That is cherry picking at its finest. Most are ramping up for quarantine free travel? Yes, to a handful of places no one wants to travel to anyways. This is at least another 12 - 18 months off until the places people actually want to travel to are all at the same level.

For the UK the places that are soon to be on the green list are Isreal and Gibraltar. Those two sought after summer holiday destinations.

this. There have been plenty of warnings recently. Listen to what the experts are saying. This year is written off. 2022 is questionable, limited travel bubbles, we might be at 50% by the end of 2022. The head of retail at Sydney airport has said they don’t expect normal travel numbers for at least a couple of years. I posted his comment before. Also posted was Chris Richardson from Deloitte ..

For Australia, some form of quarantine will remain for some incoming travellers for some time," Deloitte partner Chris Richardson wrote.
"That keeps international travel (both inbound and outbound) pretty weak in 2022, and it may not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024."
Much of Mr Richardson's forecasts rely on the speed of Australia's COVID-19 vaccination rollout, which he predicts to overtake that of the virus mutating.
"Central to the speed of that grind will be the ongoing tug-of-war between mutations and vaccinations," he wrote.
"But we continue to see vaccinations as the more likely winner of that struggle.
"So although some pain will linger – particularly as the mutations mean international borders will remain less-than-fully open for longer – most of Australia's economy looks on course to be close to pre-pandemic normal by Christmas 2021."

I asked an umbrella salesman for a weather forecast. He said it was going to rain. :p

https://www.news.com.au/travel/trave...96ab9e6c2a615a

Don’t hold your breath !!

well maybe you can provide a better source then. . And I think Richardson’s credentials are somewhat better than yours on this kind of matter....as is the head of retail at Sydney airport. After all they would be trying to be positive and be optimistic in their forecasts if anything. They have nothing to gain by painting a overly pessimistic picture of the future of international aviation.

Meanwhile the federal health minister says this, as per the link posted in the post above. Got a smart arse response to that.

Australia may not open up its borders even after everyone in the country has been vaccinated against coronavirus in an attempt to sustain its 'Zero Covid' strategy, the country's health minister has revealed.

'Vaccination alone is no guarantee that you can open up,' Greg Hunt said on Tuesday. 'If the whole country were vaccinated, you couldn't just open the borders.'

The health minister cited a range of other relevant factors, including transmissibility and the longevity of vaccine protection.

It’s clear we need to cycle the Vaccine 1.0 this year and lower the cases.

Next year Vaccine 2.0 and continue to push the herd immunity card. Many countries will get there and the trialing of opening up countries to each other will commence.

2023 onwards we can start pulling the walls down across the world.

December 2023 the majority of the world can open up. The hard work has been done.

It will die off throughout the years of 2024/25. Those poverty stricken countries will finally catch up.

I really wouldn’t want to tell Aussies how to run their country, but this is total insanity isn’t it?

I would actually call over 100000 dead in the UK total insanity.

speaking of insanity, this whole thing has been insane ..Nearly a quarter of registered Covid-19 deaths are now people who are not being killed by the virus, new official figures show as Boris Johnson comes under renewed pressure from Tory backbenchers to end the third lockdown sooner than planned.

The latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveals that 23 per cent of coronavirus deaths which are registered are now people who have died 'with' the disease rather than 'from' an infection.

This means that the person who has died will have tested positive for Covid-19 at some point, but that the disease was not recorded as the victim's primary cause of death on their death certificate.

I think the UKs open border let it rip policy was total insanity. Even now the UK Gov is not committing to when it will allow overseas travel.

Australia's & NZs closed border has been politically and economically hugely successful in comparison to just about anywhere else.

This always seems to be the comeback. A tragedy yes, but only 1 in 5 deaths last year were caused by Covid - not that this is of any solace. We are now below our average death rate. Some people would’ve died last year anyway, not that I’m attempting to justify these numbers of course.

But this policy that Australia is following is reliant on the likes of Bolsonaro actually taking Covid seriously, otherwise Brazil will just become a hotbed for variants. Africa will probably never become fully vaccinated. India will probably only vaccinated a quarter of their huge population this year. China and their vaccine diplomacy seems to have totally tanked. Russia and it’s questionable vaccine supplies.

If Australia goes down this road, they will never reopen - and news flash, there won’t be the need for any long haul pilots anymore. This smacks of scare tactics - the same messages of vaccinations not the only answer coming out of other countries in the last 1-2 days too.

Yes, back in post #4344... keep up old boy. :)

As for Deloitte, I think they have a vested interest in a pessimistic outlook, given that they also provide consultancy services on how to manage COVID-19.

“We had a focus group with Deloitte, they recommended more focus groups...:p”

That being said, I can’t recall the federal govt using the term ‘Zero Covid Strategy’ before this announcement. It appears as if the election campaign has begun.

To a point you are correct, but it was also Hobson’s choice. In early March 2020, probably around 4-5 million UK citizens were overseas working or living outside the country (including myself working). Testing was also poor in every country outside China and no one had much of an idea what they were dealing with.

The UK is one of the most densely populated countries in Europe and has one of the most densely populated aviation systems in the world in London. Closing the border to all and sundry would not have prevented the virus coming in, just slowed it down by 24 hours (those words a direct quote from our CMO).

If they had just slammed the door shut, what would’ve happened? Where would these people have gone (ah, do what Australia did).

We have put up with a lot,particularly here in victoria so in reality i dont think its a great problem for the majority of aussies if they cant leave the country for a year or 2.
What is far more important in my opinion is that we can lead a pretty normal life,get the economy going again & do most things that we enjoy.
Being able to travel overseas for 2 or 3 weeks a year does not compensate in any way for being lockrd down for days,weeks or months.

I take it you’re not an international airline pilot then? Perhaps if your livelihood had been stripped you’d think differently?

What Victorians went through is terrible. It should never have happened. However your fear of future lockdowns should not create an imposition on the rest of us who want to be able to travel without unreasonable restrictions. It is not right to keep people locked up in their own country when they’ve taken reasonable precautions and wish to travel.

What are these reasonable precautions you are going to take that guarantees you won’t bring the virus back in the next say 6-12 months?
Has there been some announcement that the vaccine will prevent transmission and knowledge of how long it is effective for?

Yes. Preliminary data indicates the vaccines do prevent transmission as well as negating the effects of the disease. How long it’s effective for is yet to be determined, however the vaccines seem to be doing better than expected.

Reality is the Liberal Party have nothing to lose federally by just using McGowans playbook with the International borders. If they were to open up and the virus gets into a Labor state they will just lock everyone up and blame the Federal Government. So they really have nothing to lose unless there is consensus from all the State governments on how to deal with international travellers importing the virus.

What Victorians went through was an example of what happens when you let the virus into the wild. It only takes one or two unchecked to let it rip. About 800 people died.

Now you call for relaxation of international border restrictions.

I’m very interested in these reasonable precautions you speak of, and how exactly you intend to determine who amongst us will or won’t take these reasonable precautions.

The whole Sydney Northern Beaches outbreak was allegedly caused by certain “exempt” folks who were expected, or “trusted” to take reasonable precautions. And didn’t.

Another coffee spilling moment.

No,im not an international pilot & your comment is 100% correct-no argument there however is there an answer that suits everybody?
I see today there are 5 new cases in vic hotel quarantine so obviously theres lots of it outside our border.
Do you open up & ignore whats coming in?
What is acceptable?

Release from Qantas this morning.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/ap...jW6FG0Biigg3B3

- wearing a mask in all public places (like pretty much every country outside of Aus/NZ requires)

- sanitising/washing hands frequently

- COVID tests on departure from overseas

- BEING VACCINATED

But if you want a 100% “gold standard” guarantee that no one will bring the virus back, it doesn’t exist.

But if you are seriously saying ZERO cases is the only solution for Australia, that’s completely unrealistic and a massive overreaction to the threat.

IF, the effectiveness of vaccines drives down the rates of hospitalisation and mortality to the point it’s close to a normal influenza outbreak, isn’t that good enough to get back to normal?!!

Current real world data (in Israel and soon to follow USA/UK) shows these vaccines work. Dramatically lower rates of hospitalisation and mortality means the vast majority of people are safe from COVID.

But expecting ZERO cases to be the end goal, is just utterly ridiculous.

“Travellers”
 

Just to add...

- 1/3rd of Australians are born overseas.

- in a normal year, up to 1 Million Australians live overseas.

The issues with the border closure has NEVER been about going to Bali or skiing in NZ. Honestly we can all survive for 12-24 months without that.

But what it does affect is the millions of Australians with family on another side of the closed border. This policy has been poorly handled from the start. There are many examples of better quarantine systems (Taiwan, Singapore, NZ to name a few) that still provide protection for the local population.

This policy isn’t sustainable. It’s unreasonable to expect Australians to cop it for 2-3 years.

If you don’t have family overseas or back in Australia, I’m sorry but you just don’t get it. It’s NOT about “going on holiday”....

Unless COVID Mutates and dies out, it's not going anywhere. Just like the Flu.
The Vaccines, in theory, will reduce the spread and the effects enough, that it wont overwhelm the Health Systems. People will still catch it, spread it and die from it. Same as all the other Viruses we've learned to live with.

The World has put it's faith in the Vaccines, and with it, the loosening of travel restrictions will follow. The Media needs to stop making it front page news everytime there's a positive case because it's giving people the impression that Zero COVID is an achievable goal long term. It's not... Globally, we passed the point of no return over 6 months ago.

Many of us chose to get Vaccinated, others didn't. Each to their own. But when the World gets back to normal, there will be very little sympathy for Anti-Vaxxers demanding borders be closed again when COVID creeps back into NZ/AUS. Unless we get lucky with a Vaccine that can actually eliminates it (doubtful), it's going to be with us just like Flu.