Here it comes: Syria

[Onceapilot]

DC has started it, a conflict to replace the old one! What do we bring to this debacle?:uhoh:

[500N]

Care to explain further ?

[Kitbag]

Guessing this (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22305444) has something to do with it?

[vulcanised]

I think we're certainly being teed up for something.

Here we go again http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/censored.gif

[smujsmith]

Whatever the political f**c*wits try to say, I would suggest that no one, no one will believe any talk of Weapons of most distraction etc etc. Bliar at least ensured that politicians can no longer use the "intelligence" excuse. I saw a comment in a newspaper report on this today where someone suggested that before committing military resources all politicians and top level military should sign a legally binding agreement that, if found to be a false claim (the weapons of mass distraction) they will accept being sent to the War Crimes Tribunal for judgement. Personally I would be happy with a punishment for falsity being double tap from a Hereford hooligan. Obviously this could divert attention from the parlous state of our country.:hmm:

Smudge

[Tankertrashnav]

"Growing evidence of weapons of mass destruction" - oops, sorry, I mean chemical weapons :O

I'm well out of it, as thankfully is my son who has recently become a civilian but on behalf of our armed forces I pray that we stay well out of this mess.

[Melchett01]

I would think we are still a long way off from doing anything. Kofi Anan has already said there is no military solution in Syria and despite their insistence that the use of WMD would constitute a 'red line' even Obama is being massively cautious and making oblique references to the Iraq debacle, after which it will take a hell of a lot more than the intelligence community declaring because we said so. That said, there has always been a conflict between the Spooks and the politicians and the later's use of what could be very nuanced intelligence reporting for blunt political purposes, so any argument between the Spooks and politicians could well degenerate into he said she said.

IMHO, the context of any alleged use rather than the actual use will be what acts as a trigger. If it can be proven that the Regime has ordered a strike, that is one thing. However, proving that conclusively will be very difficult. It could well be a case of a rogue commander at a local level making a decision on his own initiative. Or it could be a case of Syrian logistics not being up to par, with mixed stockpiles, poor record keeping, old weapons with markings that have become obscured all contributing to an inadvertent firing of CW rounds when Ahmed was told to break open a box, take said round and fire in a given direction.

Until you can prove the first of those without any doubt and can conclusively discount the other 2 contexts, then nobody in their right minds would get involved in a civil war on the grounds of alleged WMD use.

[NutLoose]

Errrr didn't we used to treat in the UK and learn how to treat Saddams Kurds that he'd used all sorts of nasties on, I remember seeing the films of nerve and blister agents. Odd how the world seemed to sit on its hands then, at least one thing has changed for the better if it is now seen as a step to far.

[smujsmith]

My Lord Melchett

With respect to your argument, I would dare to proffer that the Bliar and Bush personages, never, had problems with fabricating myths to embolden their claims to greater knowledge. Embellished by the churlish Campbell no doubt. Regardless, why do we have any interest in this internecine mish mash of disingenuous and ill suited characters ? I suspect this is the current governments "distraction" from its inability to look after our own country. In 10 years time we will regret becoming involved and, how many civilian and British servicemens deaths is this all worth ? Sorry if its a bit on the serious side, but this sh1t is serious!

Smudge

[Willard Whyte]

Glad I ditched my reserve liability day 1 of redundancy.

[newt]

Another medal guys!!:ok:

[Captain Radar....]

I'm seeing reports of people supposedly affected by Sarin having dilated pupils.
It's a long time since I did GDT but I seem to remember that one of the symptoms of nerve agent poisoning is contracted pupils. I don't understand why someone hasn't pointed that out. Perhaps it doesn't matter, chemical warfare might be chemical warfare, but maybe touting the use of Sarin is meant to hit a nerve!

[air pig]

I give you three words only, Dr David Kelly RiP

[phil9560]

Let the manipulation recommence-here we go again !

[Tiger_mate]

Fact: There are 196 countries on earth.

Why must the UK be Sherriff every time someone kicks off?

It must be because we can afford to!

What with all those pay rises the military have had in recent years.

It is time someone in a suit in London accepted that we are no more then a Defence Force with a Nuclear card left over from a different era hidden in our back pocket and that we should limit our games to a home front scenario.

[Liam Gallagher]

Ever wondered where Syria got their chemical weapons from?

If anyone wants to reply with cut and pastes from their favourite media outlet, please be aware that an equal number of journals will have a contrary view.

[Courtney Mil]

Captain Radar,

Pinpoint pupils for nerve agent, indeed yes. But those casualties had been treated with atropine, which has the opposite effect. I was once treated with atropine and the effect is fully dilated pupils, complete inability if the eye to accommodate to bright light or to focus. And the effects of atropine poisoning can last a very long time, depending on dosage.

There is another important feature of sarin, once manufactured, it has a very short shelf life. It is easy to store as two component chemicals, which can be mixed to create sarin ready for use. That involves either deliberately mixing sarin and loading it into a weapon or using a binary weapon which does the mixing when used - e.g. a shell that mixes the two components when fired.

Does Syria own binary CW?

If not, this probably wasn't someone taking an existing weapon out of long term storage - there is no arsenal of sarin shells left over from the Cold War.

[Pontius Navigator]

It as been pointed out to me that one of the 'casualties' calmly stretched with his arms above his head and crossed his legs.

The other, also repeated over the last 3 days, purportedly shows a casualty being intubated. Apparently the patient should be unconscious and his head tipped as far back as it will go to get the tube in. We didn't see that, nor did we see if it was a short make believe tube or a proper one.

If the evidence is there why do we only see the same clip on every bulletin?

[Lonewolf_50]

Who used it is still debatable.

What "it" is is being asserted as sarin.

Thin.

Oh, and just what is to be done?

I note that China and Russia are not keen on intervention.

[air pig]

PN, someone who is intubated is quite capable in the right situation to tolerate having an endotracheal tube (ET) in their trachea and be quite wide awake and able to communicate by gestures, writing or by asking the right question. The dubious bit is that its not connected to anything, so why is he intubated? As you suggest this could be like the Libyan TV report where a supposedly badly injured man did a Lazerus when he thought the camera was off him.

[gehenna]

Why should the UK get involved in sorting this mess out?

Why should the British tax-payers foot the bill to sort out another mess which was not of our doing?

Why should our military personnel be put at risk yet again, to a cause which will take an eternity to sort out?

It's time that we stopped trying to emulate the US as being the 'policeman of the world.'

Let those in that part of the world get together and come to an agreement as what to do, and keep the UK well out of it.

It is farcical that the 'rebels' say that the outside world is not doing enough, failing to supply weapons and finance them; who the hell do they think they are making such demands; they are no better than those they are fighting.

[lj101]

Gehenna

This may help.

BBC News - Syria crisis could change face of the Middle East (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13132960)

[Rosevidney1]

From stable to chaos. Why are we helping the rebels, pray? Can anyone anticipate a happy ending for that ruined and divided country? For all our sakes we should have nothing to do with expediting the end result. Nothing at all.

[SADDLER]

Have to agree with the above.
It seems Hauge and co can't wait to start buying weapons for the rebels.
We all know what way this will end up.

[smujsmith]

This just feels and sounds like the Bliar lead in to Iraq 2. Lots of reference to "intelligence" etc etc. Surely, after Iraq etc, the Camoron cannot fall for the same spin, Campbell, Dr Kelly sh1te that we've had before. I know that "history has a habit of repeating itself" but, surely not so quickly ? Although, the current mob are desperate for some "off topic" diversionary stuff, to avoid their poor performance. I just have a very bad feeling about Syria, I'm no military strategist, I just don't believe it will do anyone in this country any good.

Smudge

[cargosales]

Gehenna

This may help.

BBC News - Syria crisis could change face of the Middle East (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13132960)

I agree, that is, or rather was, an extremely good article. Given that it's from April 2011.

The only teensy problem is that the casualty figures quoted in the article .....

"The death toll today after upheavals in a number of Syrian towns and cities is possibly in the low hundreds with many more injured - exact figures are hard to come by - but the regime still shows every bit as much tenacity in facing down its opponents."

... have been repeated on an almost daily basis ever since..:(

[Courtney Mil]

For all the predictions of doom here, it's pretty obvious that the politicians are doing everything they can to find excuses not to get involved. I think many of you are jumping the gun. B O'Bama is being very quiet about his "red line". They will stay out of this - albeit for all the wrong reasons.

[Deepest Norfolk]

Somebody with a bit of clout and a few balls should stand up and say"FFS, Dave, with what and with whom? because you've scrapped it all or fired them all!".

DN

[tonker]

Learn lessons of 100 years of interfering, stop at home, mind own business.

[Lonewolf_50]

I ask again of the pols:
Get involved to achieve what end?

It is all well and good to tell the generals and their troops "go and sort it out" but you need to have an objective in mind and a follow up that ... seems to often come off as "not quite sorted out" which leads to more trouble.

Case in Point: France, US, Lebanon, 1982/1983.

"Go and do something."

OK, we went and did something, and achieved ... what? :confused:

[TheWizard]

There are other ways of getting drawn in to this
Report: Missiles fired at Russian passenger jet over Syria - ITV News (http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-04-29/report-missiles-filed-at-russian-passenger-jet-over-syria/?)

[500N]

"Case in Point: France, US, Lebanon, 1982/1983.

"Go and do something."

OK, we went and did something, and achieved ... what? http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/confused.gif"



One hell of a lot of dead soldiers.

[500N]

"There are other ways of getting drawn in to this
Report: Missiles fired at Russian passenger jet over Syria - ITV News (http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-04-29/report-missiles-filed-at-russian-passenger-jet-over-syria/?)"


Jesus. Lucky they only exploded close and didn't hit it and detonate.

Russia is going to be mighty pissed.

[Sandy Parts]

I know we've agreed to not sell them arms - maybe we could flog them all our old Browning 9mm now we are getting Glocks? - surely they don't count:E

[TBM-Legend]

"Give more guns to both sides and negotiate with the winners!"

We must stay away from this mess. If necessary fund Israel to tidy it up...

PS: There isn't much oil and gas there is there?:confused:

[lj101]

TBM

Actually ...... Leviathan gas field

Research suggests there may be as much as 122 trillion cubic feet of natural gas waiting to be tapped off the coasts of Syria, Lebanon and Israel, as well as Gaza, according to a study last year by the US Geological Survey.


Read more: Vast gas fields found off Israel's shores cause trouble at home and abroad - The National (http://www.thenational.ae/news/world/middle-east/vast-gas-fields-found-off-israels-shores-cause-trouble-at-home-and-abroad#ixzz2RxHIWznr)
Follow us: @TheNationalUAE on Twitter | thenational.ae on Facebook

There is.

[The Nip]

Why is killing a handful of people with WMD any worse than killing thousands with( .........) insert method?

I am not saying it is right, but then again the killing of tens of thousands of Afghans, Iraqis, Syrians is just as wrong. Unless there is a correct way of killing someone.

[Pontius Navigator]

At least it's good to see the Korean situation has been sorted.

Now if there was a calamity in the sub-continent, say a building collapsing with hundreds killed, that might solve the near east problem.:\

Just how much of this is driven by the media? Does Joe P care one way or the other? Clarke was saying that UKIP supporters are xenophobic closet racists. He may be correct, but how many Tory (and former Tory) or Labour or Liberal supporters hold the same views?

The supporters of intervention and subsequent immigration seem to have their own agenda which is not Defence of the UK Home Base.

[Lonewolf_50]

For The Nip:
Unless there is a correct way of killing someone
There is, among professional military organizations. See reference to LOAC and Geneva Conventions, among other multilateral agreements.

If I may try to link this thread to something of interest to military aircrew:
Wall Street Journal April 29, 2013 Pg. 10
U.S. Analysis Of Syria's Russian-Made Air Defenses
By Adam Entous and Julian E. Barnes

Russia has helped to build up, modernize and maintain Syria's air defenses since 2007, working quietly and often in secret. Here is a look at what U.S. government officials say the Russians have provided:

SA-5 Gammon Multiple surface-to-air missile systems with a range of 175 miles. Can hit aircraft taking off from Cyprus, where the U.S. has a base.
Designed for use against bombers, can be integrated into other air-defense radar systems. Number of systems unknown.
(LW Note: back in the 80's, those were of some concern when we were playing tag with the Mad Colonel.)

SA-22 Pantsir-S1 A transportable antiaircraft gun and surface-to-air missile with a range of about 12 miles, this system can be used against a range of targets including cruise missiles, aircraft and helicopters. They were exported from Russia to Syria in August 2008. Numbers: 36 combat vehicles/launchers.

SA-17 Grizzly This missile system, with a range of up to 20 miles, includes an integrated radar that can engage multiple targets coming from various directions. Numbers: total of 10 launchers.

SA-26 Pechora-2M With an operational range of 17 miles, this missile system is better against maneuvering targets but is only effective at lower
altitudes. Numbers: total of 96 to 150 launchers and two missiles per launcher.

SA-2 Guideline An older technology, guided from the ground, these surface-to-air missiles are used against high altitude aircraft. Ranges vary but can be up to 28 miles. Numbers unknown. (LW Note: it may be old, but it can still kill you).

SA-6 Gainful A mobile antiaircraft system mounted on a tank-like vehicle, it has a range of about 15 miles. Numbers: four transporters each with three missiles and three gun systems.

SA-8 Gecko The system includes an integrated radar enabling it to independently track and engage aircraft, but it is limited to short ranges of about 9 miles. Numbers: four combat vehicle transports, each with six missiles and a three radar-guided antiaircraft guns.

SA-9 Gaskin A short-range infrared antiaircraft system that can hit targets up to 5 miles away. Numbers: four transporters, each with one missile and radar guided antiaircraft gun.

[ORAC]

Israel has conducted airstrike in Syria - U.S. official (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/04/uk-syria-crisis-israel-usa-idUKBRE94300U20130504)

(Reuters) - Israel has conducted an airstrike in Syria, apparently targeting a building, a U.S. official said on Friday. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, declined to elaborate. CNN quoted two unnamed U.S. officials as saying Israel most likely conducted the strike "in the Thursday-Friday time frame" and that Israel's warplanes did not enter Syrian airspace.

CNN said the officials did not believe Israel had targeted a chemical weapons facility. CBS News cited U.S. sources as saying Israel targeted a warehouse.

There was no official confirmation. Syrian U.N. Ambassador Bashar Ja'afari told Reuters, "I'm not aware of any attack right now."

A White House spokeswoman referred questions on the CNN report to the Israeli government. The Pentagon declined comment.

In Jerusalem, an Israeli military spokeswoman said, "We do not comment on reports of this kind."

A spokesman for the Israeli Embassy in Washington said, "We cannot comment on these reports, but what we can say is that Israel is determined to prevent the transfer of chemical weapons or other game-changing weaponry by the Syrian regime to terrorists, especially to Hezbollah in Lebanon." Hezbollah fought a 34-day war with Israel in 2006.

The CNN report said that during the time frame of the attack, the United States had collected information showing Israeli warplanes overflying Lebanon.

In January this year, Israel bombed a convoy in Syria, apparently hitting weapons destined for Hezbollah, according to diplomats, Syrian rebels and security sources in the region.

[glad rag]

BBC News - Israeli strikes on Syria 'co-ordinated with terrorists' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22419995)


Damascus airstrikes
BBC News - Damascus military facilities 'hit by Israel rockets'

"Syrian state media said the rockets hit the Jamraya research centre, which Western officials have suggested is involved in chemical weapons research"

"It is the second suspected Israeli strike in Syria in two days."

Israeli jet shot down over Damascus: Hezbollah TV | News , Middle East | THE DAILY STAR (http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2013/May-05/216036-israeli-jet-shot-down-over-damascus-hezbollah-tv.ashx#axzz2SQtH1bmF)


:}

"BEIRUT: An Israeli warplane was shot down by Syrian air-defense units during a raid near Damascus early Sunday, Hezbollah's Manar television station reported, citing security sources in the Syrian capital.

There was no independent confirmation of the claim and Israel did not comment on the raid reports.

[ExRAFRadar]

Ignore- could not post vid

[Eclectic]

Israel were not too unhappy with the Assads running Syria, the family provided little trouble for decades.
The revolutionaries contain many salafists (including lots of volunteers from abroad, including the UK). Israel doesn't want these people running a country on their borders.
So to strike against Assad means they have a bigger problem. Or several.

Syria has Fateh-110 missiles from Iran, these are accurate super Scuds with a 200 mile range. Syria also has a substantial chemical weapons capability. Both of these give Israel sleepless nights. Especially if Syria supply Hezbollah with the missiles. Or just about anyone with the chemical weapons.

Jamraya is a collection of military complexes that are behind a mountain to the west of Baghdad, not a long way from the Lebanese border. This is the second time Israel has hit it. But this time they went in much bigger and took out an assortment of targets. Including using earth penetrators against the many bunkers there. That they succeeded to some degree in their aims can be seen with the immense firework display visible from Baghdad, which could well have been Fateh-110 solid fuel going up.

It looks like the West is planning a safe zone in the north, next to the Turkish border, which would then be declared as a no fly zone. This would help stem the refugee problem and give the West a vehicle to control the political process amongst the Syrian opposition, minimising salafist power. Expect Typhoons to be flying out of Akrotiri to enforce this.

[Easy Street]

It looks like the West is planning a safe zone in the north...which would then be declared as a no fly zone....Expect Typhoons to be flying out of Akrotiri to enforce this.

What about the Syrian fixed air defences? And air bases? And IADS? And mobile SAM? A no fly zone is not an easy or low-political-cost option in this particular instance. Although I will agree that it is lower cost than many of the alternatives, I don't see it being especially likely, given the enormous set-up "costs" required (both in materiel and political capital).

[Lonewolf_50]

Eclectic, did you mean "Damascus" when you wrote "Baghdad?" in your post?:confused

You hypothesis on the no fly zone near Turkish border makes some sense to me.

[GreenKnight121]

Or perhaps he meant Beirut.

[Eclectic]

OOPS! Senior moment.

A safe zone next to the Turkish border could be enforced with Patriots inside Turkey + AWACs.

Then SEAD could be done progressively till air superiority is achieved.

[angels]

I am not a military man, but I would say they hit something....

LiveLeak.com - Israel Bombing Syria

[Eclectic]

The politics for a safe zone have been discussed in the Economist newspaper (which is very well connected on both sides of the Atlantic) for some months. As in this article from last November. Middle East and Africa: Syria?s agony | The Economist (http://www.economist.com/news/21566341-it-will-be-worse-it-gets-better-syrias-agony)

The idea was promoted publicly in America by Senator John McCain the week before last: PressTV - McCain urges 'safe zone' for Syria rebels (http://www.presstv.ir/usdetail/300430.html)

The debate on this has hotted up considerably over the last couple of days since the Israeli strikes: Democrats and Republicans think US closer to arming Syrian rebels, after Israeli strikes | Fox News (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/05/06/democrats-and-republicans-think-us-closer-to-arming-syrian-rebels-after-israeli/)

America just recently put a lot of diplomatic effort in getting Turkey and Israel to kiss and make up. Mainly for handling the Syrian situation. The Americans are training Syrian rebel fighters at camps in Jordan and Turkey (with UK assistance). The Americans are indirectly supplying arms by the CIA orchestrating the supply activities of the Arab gulf states. America also has special forces in position to act should the chemical weapons situation escalate. So have the Russians.

The problem is that all the American, UK and Gulf aid is wasted whilst Assad maintains air superiority. He can drop oil drums full of TNT from helicopters on to bread queues (a favourite tactic) with total impunity. So sooner or later, to some degree, that air superiority will need to be degraded. We won't give the rebels MANPADs because they could fall into the hands of salafists and end up being used at a civil airport near you. Though the rebels have captured some MANPADs and used them effectively. They shot down an Assad helicopter yesterday.

The safe zone makes a lot of sense because it can be very flexible and progressive and because the Patriot batteries are already in place. We could implement it this afternoon. Then gradually extend the size of it and implement SEAD. This would help stem the refugee tide, which has become a major problem. Also it would give the West a degree of political control, thus reducing the power of the salafists.

Politically we have learned a lot from Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. With what we know now we would have done these campaigns very differently. We cannot get a country to switch instantly from being an oppressive dictatorship to being a Western liberal democracy. All we can do is to work towards the replacement regime being less bad. Mali being an example of how our doctrine has changed.

Some may say why should we. And they have a very valid point. The problems for the West iinclude young people being radicalised who then wage asymmetrical warfare against us, as in 9/11. Some would say that American policy has made this worse rather than better. Then there is our reliance on Arab petrochemicals. The situation here has changed very rapidly and very fundamentally with fracking in America. It has changed the global strategic balance. Then there are WMDs. Bliar and Bush lied to us about these so we are very cynical. However the Tokyo underground sarin attack proved just how devastating a small amount can be in the hands of the wrong people. And in Syria today there are lots of the wrong people and lots of nerve gas.

Syrian nerve gas: NBC Weapons: What Is Known About Nerve Gas In Syria (http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htchem/articles/20130501.aspx)

"Syrian nerve gas is stored at some fifty locations all over the country." So we have an accident waiting to happen. The salafists could very easily release this in the London or New York undergrounds if they got their hands on it.

[Ronald Reagan]

Puts a different spin on things!
UN accuses Syrian rebels of chemical weapons use - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10039672/UN-accuses-Syrian-rebels-of-chemical-weapons-use.html)
Typical of the west to support the wrong side yet again!

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

One of the problems with any kind of international law on conflicts is that such laws derived from a situation where all sides were clearly located and expected to 'play by the rules'. Not only are there now many anti-Western groups not linked to easily definable geographic areas, but those groups are specifically exploiting the international law loopholes to further their causes. Al Qaeda et al are in breach of every single condition of the Geneva Conventions. We are mugs to keep 'playing by the rules' when they don't.

To my mind, the two questions the three questions that come into play about any action by nation states are:
Will it work?
What message does this send out for now and the future?
What are the consequences if we do nothing/fail?

I feel the worst crime, morally, is losing. This is where me and those who claim that, for example, the fire- and atomic bombings in WWII were immoral part company. Losing to the totalitarian regimes would have been a far worse moral crime than the deaths of x hundreds of thousands of unarmed citizens ensuring the end of the war.

That said, I object to quite a number of current 'illegal actions' on the above grounds. The invasion of Iraq and subsequent occupation didn't 'work'. I'm not convinced most rendition 'worked'.
I think the current Israeli bombing works. They are targetting specific weapon systems which could cause grave consequences for their people. There has been minimal collateral damage (or you can bet it would have been on every Arab TV channel), and they clearly hit weapons targets as shown by the secondaries.

[Lonewolf_50]

Ronald:

Their evidence isn't as hard as they'd like it, but it seems to be as good as the evidence that the regime may have.

Eclectic's point overrides either consideration: if there are fifty or so locations where such stuff is stored, then the sarin gas is a bad news event just waiting to happen, within or beyond Syria.

[Eclectic]

Regarding the rebels using sarin, this is eminently possible. They have captured several major Assad bases and the weapons in them, this is how they got their MANPADs. With Assad's sarin being widely dispersed it would be surprising if the rebels hadn't found some. And, as Assad has been using sarin for about a month, why not hit back in kind?

Sarin degrades pretty quickly when stored. So it is usually created by mixing two precursors immediately prior to use. This sometimes happens within the shell. Otherwise it could be quite technically demanding, requiring expertise from the rebels or the presence of specially trained defectors.

[Pontius Navigator]

Wouldn't a no-fly zone in the north create a free-fly zone in the south and nearer Israel?

I can see how Patriot can enforce a narrow no-fly zone on the Turkish border but how far and how low?

Then don't confuse Air Superiority with Air Supremacy. The latter is required for a NFZ, the former will mean the airspace is continually contested and sometimes we would lose.

[Lonewolf_50]

If I may quote this for thruth:
Then don't confuse Air Superiority with Air Supremacy.
Tough to have the latter when there are MANPADS within the airspace volume in the hands of someone not on your side. :cool:

[SASless]

Assad has diddled the Pooch....he has authorized combat action against the Israeli's! So he is going to fight a Civl War and the Israeli's....now that is chutzpah!

[500N]

SAS

Do you have a source for that ?

[SASless]

Yes....know nothing of the credibility of the source however.

http://www.thetower.org/exclusive-assad-green-lights-palestinian-operations-against-israel-on-the-golan-heights-threatens-missile-attacks-syrian-tv/

[Eclectic]

Syria attacking Israel on the Golan Heights: Rockets fired from Syria fall in Israel-occupied Golan - Daily News Egypt (http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/05/06/rockets-fired-from-syria-fall-in-israel-occupied-golan/)

[racedo]

One of the problems with any kind of international law on conflicts is that such laws derived from a situation where all sides were clearly located and expected to 'play by the rules'.

No sides in a war play by the rules and they haven't done for centuries.

The Moralising by the press that somehow there is respect for International law is blowing smoke to make it look like they are the good guys and others the bad guys.

In war there ain't any good guys.

[racedo]

Assad has diddled the Pooch....he has authorized combat action against the Israeli's! So he is going to fight a Civl War and the Israeli's....now that is chutzpah!

I believe BiBi took a call from the Russians today in Shanghai......there will be no more air attacks as otherwise Syria will have right on its side in attacking Israel.

BiBi wouldn't be in Shanghai if there was an attack going to occur................it will all go calm.

[SASless]

Self Defense is always a Nation's Right!

Nothing about Assad is "right".

I said at the end of the Gulf War (the first one), we should road march the US Military through Syria to the Med and put them on ships there as it would solve a problem with Syria and make the homebound freight a lot cheaper than having to go the long way round.

[500N]

Jesus SAS, they couldn't even go to Bahgdad and you wanted
them to march to the Med, cleaning up all the xxxx along the
way :O

Nice idea.

Would have stopped Syria from being a large entry point for
rebels in Gulf Two.

[Roland Pulfrew]

Nothing about Assad is "right".

Well except that prior to the western supported "Arab Spring" men and women in Syria had access to education, reasonable health care, access to work, relative prosperity, freedom of religion, relative peace and security (a bit like Iraqis under Saddam).

What have they got now? And what will they have when the Islamic Terrorists finally win, with western support? I'll put money it won't be better than what they had under Assad and in several respects it will be a lot worse.

[Lonewolf_50]

The rocket fire was “apparently connected to the situation inside Syria,” she added, suggesting Israel was not targeted but that it was a spillover of fighting between the Syrian regime and rebels.

“The Israeli army combed the sector the rockets fell in and informed the UN
forces deployed in the Golan,” the spokeswoman said.
I doubt the Israelis will consider it a casus beli

I suspect they don't want to get involved in the Syria fight, and that Assad is to them a lesser of two evisl sort of deal.

[GreenKnight121]

Israel invading Syria would be a huge gift to Assad, as the more radical Islamicists in the rebels would immediately shift all of their attention to the IDF forces, taking most of the pressure off Assad's loyalists.

Israel knows this, which is why the only thing they are doing is hitting arms shipments heading from Syria to Lebanon.

[Lonewolf_50]

Andrew J. Bacevich (http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2013/05/08/road-damascus/oYCHc6T67btNAVoSRyX3dJ/story.html)
An excerpt from his recent comments on the security issues in Syria
Recall that the modern Middle East is a relatively recent creation. It emerged from the wreckage of World War I, the handiwork of cynical and devious European imperialists. As European (and especially British) power declined after World War II, the United States, playing the role of willing patsy, assumed responsibility for propping up this misbegotten product of European venality -- a dubious inheritance, if there ever was one.

Now it's all coming undone. {Aside: Lonewolf_50 notes that Yugoslavia came undone similarly, and was constructed similarly}

Today, from the Maghreb to Pakistan, the order created by the West to serve Western interests is succumbing to an assault mounted from within. Who are the assailants? People intent on exercising that right to self- determination that President Woodrow Wilson bequeathed to the world nearly 100 years ago.

What these multitudes are seeking remains to be seen. But they don't want and won't countenance outside interference.

Anyone fancying that the United States can forestall this quest for self-determination should think again. Anyone who thinks Washington can bend the process to suit our own purposes needs to undertake a remedial study of the Iraq War.

Americans have long entertained the conceit that we are bigger than history. We provide the drumbeat to which others march. Sorry: Not so.

By way of comparison, think of those stories about the sea encroaching on some Nantucket or Plum Island home. Those immediately affected might delude themselves into thinking that a bit of sand replenishment will save the day. Grown-ups know better. Ultimately, the winds and tides, reinforced of late by climate change, will have their way.

So too with the Greater Middle East. Pressure on Obama to "do something" about Syria continues to mount. Perhaps he'll refuse. I hope so. Or perhaps he'll cave, with Syria becoming yet another active theater in what has become America's endless War To Be Named Later. One thing is certain: US intervention in Syria won't affect the tsunami of change that is engulfing the Islamic world.
Why should we consider what Bacevich writes? Well, he's one of oure brotherhood, albeit currently a professor of history and international relations at Boston University. He's been critiquing US security policy for decades. I don't always agree with him, but he usually gets me thinking.

I think he got this one right.

His Bona Fides:
Bacevich graduated from West Point in 1969. He served a one year tour in Vietnam, 1970 to 1971. {The first book of his that I read was on Vietnam}. Later he held posts in Germany, including 11th ACR, and in the Persian Gulf. Retired Colonel. He holds a Ph.D. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ph.D.) in American Diplomatic History from Princeton University (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princeton_University). Taught at West Point (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Point) and Johns Hopkins University (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johns_Hopkins_University), now at Boston University since 1998.

Bacevich's son, a first Lt, was killed in action in Iraq by an IED (In Iraq, near Samarra) in 2007. (3rd Bn, 8th U.S. Cavalry Regt, 1st Cav.) Bacevich is of Lithuanian ancestry, and has described himself as a "Catholic conservative.

In this article his criticism of both GW Bush and B Obama (http://www.newrepublic.com/blog/foreign-policy/76091/non-believer#)regarding America's wars is concisely presented. Punch line:

"Who is more deserving of contempt? The commander-in-chief who sends young Americans to die for a cause, however misguided (Bush), in which he sincerely believes? Or the commander-in-chief who sends young Americans to die for a cause in which he manifestly does not believe and yet refuses to forsake?" {Lonewolf notes: the latter could also be said of LBJ}

[Roland Pulfrew]

And here is a slightly different take from the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22456875)

Whatever happens, I think that the "west" should steer well clear of arming the terrorists in this case, unless (and its probably already too late) we want to see another ME country tearing itself apart because of a split in Islam several hundred years ago. Whatever one may think of the current/former leaders of Syria, Iraq, Libya etc these countries did not suffer the religous slaughter that now pervades each country and which is likely to endure for years :(

Lonewolf

Not sure that the "venal Europeans" can really be "blamed" for Yugoslavia; the desire to form such a state was driven largely by the population involved (at least according to Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creation_of_Yugoslavia)). And of course the fact that the US "assumed responsibility" was nothing to do with US access to oil, was it? Not saying that Mr Bacevich is entirely wrong, just that there is a bit of pro-American and anti-European rhetoric in that article. :=

[Eclectic]

Russia to supply 6 Grumble launchers and 144 missiles to Assad. This is a substantial strategic game changer and would deter the Israelis from further action. Also any Western enforced no fly zone would be a lot more difficult to police.

Story from WSJ: U.S. Is Warned Russia Plans Syria Arms Sale - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324059704578471453006383248.html?dsk=y)

[Eclectic]

Turks very keen for a no fly zone. Erdo?an: Türk hastanelerinde kimyasal silahtan etkilenmi? Suriyeli yaral?lar var - WSJ.com (http://www.wsj.com.tr/article/SB10001424127887323744604578474303581525558.html)
Akrotiri will be busy.
What UK assets will go? GR4s for SEAD + AWACs + tankers?

[TEEEJ]

The Russian Foreign Minister has cleared up the rumours of S-300s being supplied to Syria.

No S-300 supplies planned, Russia finalizes standing Syrian weapons contracts - Lavrov

Russia is not planning to supply Syria with any weapons beyond the current contracts that are nearing completion, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said refuting speculations that Moscow was going to sell S-300 air defense systems to Damascus.

“Russia does not plan to sell,” Lavrov told reporters on being asked on S-300 air defense systems rumors. He stressed that Russia has only been fulfilling contracts that have already been signed with Syria for defensive weapons.

No S-300 supplies planned, Russia finalizes standing Syrian weapons contracts - Lavrov ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/russia-syria-weapons-sell-103/)

[ORAC]

Turkey-Syria border town hit by car bombs (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10051049/Turkey-Syria-border-town-hit-by-car-bombs.html)

Syria's civil war spilled over the border into southern Turkey on Saturday when a series of car bombs killed 40 people in the town of Reyhanli.

This was the bloodiest incident on Turkish soil since the onset of Syria's civil war in 2011. Four explosions near the town hall devastated the centre of Reyhanli in the Turkish province of Hatay. Muammer Guler, the interior minister, told local media that 40 people had been killed and at least 29 wounded. The government made no accusations about responsibility for the attack, but Ahmet Davutoglu, the foreign minister, said: “Those who for whatever reason attempt to bring the external chaos into our country will get a response.”

After the bombings, local people vented their anger by vandalising cars with Syrian number plates and attacking Syrian refugees. Thousands have arrived in the area, raising tension with the Turkish host population. Reyhanli, with a population of about 60,000, is near the Cilvegozu frontier crossing with Syria.

Turkey has openly supported the Syrian rebels fighting President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, allowing them to arm, train and recruit using bases inside its territory. Accordingly, Syria’s regime has a motive for striking back by attacking Turkey. In the past, Syrian forces have fired artillery shells and mortar bombs over the border, killing five Turks in the village of Akcakale last October.

In the past, the Turkish army has often retaliated in kind. After the Akcakale incident, when a mother and her three daughters were among the dead, Turkey responded by bombarding targets inside Syria.

[Lonewolf_50]

Might the PKK be stirring the pot? :sad:

[racedo]

Could be just as easily be the Qatari and Saudis falling out because FSA is imploding and joining Al Q or Russia targeting a supply route or M16 trying it on.

[Lonewolf_50]

M16 trying it on?

Can you explain to me what that means?

By M16 did you mean MI6? :confused:

[ORAC]

May be true, might be Turkey setting up a casus belli, but expect either Syrian forces to be hit hard or a almost undeniable demand for a No Fly Zone.

Turkey Blames Syria for Bombing (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323716304578478631250320680.html)

REYHANLI, Turkey—Turkey on Sunday blamed groups connected to Syria's intelligence service for two car bombings that killed at least 46 people in a Turkish border town a day earlier, the deadliest sign yet that Syria's civil war is spilling over into neighboring states. A pair of car bombs exploded in Reyhanli, a small Turkish town near the Syrian border. More than 40 people were killed and over 100 were injured by the blasts. Photo: Associated Press.

Turkish officials said Sunday that security services had arrested nine people, all Turkish citizens, including the alleged mastermind, after two car bombings ripped through Reyhanli, a small town close to Syria. Syria denied any involvement in the bombings. Turkey's interior minister, Muammer Guler, said an investigation showed that the huge blasts—which damaged almost 500 shops, 300 homes and 60 vehicles—were carried out by a "terrorist organization in close contact with Syria's intelligence agency."

The government didn't immediately publish evidence that showed Syrian involvement, although Deputy Prime Minister Besir Atalay said a number of the suspects had confessed links to Syrian intelligence services................

[VinRouge]

Just as likely to be FSA trying to trigger a western response. I wonder how much of the headline massacres, use of chemical weapons has in fact been the FSA (read al q) trying to cross lines in the sand and invoke a NATO intervention.

Do we really want Al Q on the Mediterranean coast?

[Lonewolf_50]

Not sure who "we" is but I sure don't. I see nothing good coming from that.

[reynoldsno1]

Jabhat al-Nusra - usually reckoned to be the most successful of all the rebel groups, these guys make the Syrian Army look like a charity organisation. They have been categorised by the US as a terrorist organisation, but are Sunni-backed and led (probably) by a Golani i.e a Syrian formerly from the Golan Heights. These guys are capable, and capable of anything ....

[Eclectic]

The sizeable Kurdish community in Syria are a complication. The Turks don't want to supply and train Syrian opposition only to end up as the victims.
Ultimately the Kurds would like to have their own country carved out from northern Iraq, a chunk of Turkey and a chunk of Syria. Just now in Syria they are asking that any post conflict settlement is a federal state with a semi-autonomous Kurdish state within a state (much like they have achieved in Iraq).

The Turks are in the middle of the process of coming to a political settlement with the Kurds. They have Abdullah Öcalan in jail, which makes him very available for negotiations.

Lots of information about the various political machinations here: ORSAM (http://www.orsam.org.tr/en/homepage.aspx)

[racedo]

Can you explain to me what that means?

By M16 did you mean MI6? http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/confused.gif

Could be MI6 with M16s...............
damm spelling gremlins and those who spot them ;)

[Lonewolf_50]

Eclectic, did you forget that chunk of Iran for the Kurds? :E

[GreenKnight121]

And the smidge of Armenia...
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Kurdish-inhabited_area_by_CIA_%281992%29.jpg/734px-Kurdish-inhabited_area_by_CIA_%281992%29.jpg

[Lonewolf_50]

in this morning's news (http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/14/18244907-sheer-savagery-syrian-rebel-rips-out-soldiers-heart-human-rights-watch-says?lite), we have the report of some bizarre behavior by the leader of one of the Islamic faction's the not quite famous (until this morning's news coverage) Omar al-Farouq Brigade ...
A Syrian rebel commander has been caught on video cutting out the heart of a soldier and biting into it, Human Rights Watch said late Monday.

Amateur video posted online shows a man cutting into the dead solider's torso and removing his liver and heart. The New York-based rights group identified the man as Abu Sakkar, a founder of the rebel Omar al-Farouq Brigade.

In the video, which prompted outrage on all sides of the country’s deadly
civil war, the man says: "I swear to God we will eat your hearts and your
livers, you soldiers of Bashar the dog,”according to HRW.
Given that the soldier was already dead, I am not sure if this constitutes an atrocity, but it sure is a great way to get people to condemn you and your side.

Abu, you may regret this little stunt. You wanted attention, I think you'll get it ... and maybe not the kind you were looking for.

[Training Risky]

I think desecration of dead bodies is a war crime...or maybe at worst against the Geneva Convention.

I seem to recall a case of a Para making a necklace of ears from dead Argies immediately after some of the engagements had finished. I think he got in trouble for that...

[Eclectic]

Is cutting the heart out of a corpse and eating it any worse that blowing people up with a missile from a UAV piloted from an air conditioned room thousands of miles away? Or shooting up insurgents from a mile out with 30mm ammo fired from the nose of an Apache? Limbs still get ripped from torsos, people are decapitated in the process and innocents caught in the mix.

[Lonewolf_50]

Eclectic: to some people, desecration of a corpse is offensive for a variety of reasons. Your attempt at moral equivalence misses the point.

Whomever died, and however he died, he's dead. The civil war in Syria is terrible enough.

To then take the trouble to descerate the corpse for ideological purpose, or for some act of showmanship, is a different sort of horror, with different motivations than fighting in a war.

[Roland Pulfrew]

Is cutting the heart out of a corpse and eating it any worse than blowing people up with a missile...

Err, yes! Deliberate mutilation of a corpse is, IIRC, a war crime. Given the way that certain parts of the world reacted to the video of some US personnel simply urinating on a dead taliban, then I hope (but do not expect) the same condemnation and rioting from the citizens of those same countries. One law for some........:hmm:

[ImageGear]

International Criminal Court

Article 8 (2) (b) (xxi)
War crime of outrages upon personal dignity
Elements
1. The perpetrator humiliated, degraded or otherwise violated the dignity of one or
more persons.49
2. The severity of the humiliation, degradation or other violation was of such degree as
to be generally recognized as an outrage upon personal dignity.
3. The conduct took place in the context of and was associated with an international
armed conflict.
4. The perpetrator was aware of factual circumstances that established the existence of
an armed conflict.


49 For this crime, “persons” can include dead persons. It is understood that the victim need not personally be
aware of the existence of the humiliation or degradation or other violation. This element takes into account
relevant aspects of the cultural background of the victim.

Imagegear

[Eclectic]

It appears that this incident was instigated by the perpetrator looking at was on his victim's phone. There he found video of Alawites abusing Sunni women.
“We opened his cell phone and I found a clip of a woman and her two daughters fully naked, and he was humiliating them”

Syrian rebel defends eating dead soldier's organ as revenge - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10057420/Syrian-rebel-defends-eating-dead-soldiers-organ-as-revenge.html)

[Lonewolf_50]

Eclectic, are you defending this desecration as justifiable? :confused:




Wry thought: cell phones cams keep causing people grief, even after they are dead! :eek:

[Lonewolf_50]

An interesting piece on what got this Syria civil war going, a few years back.

Without Water, Revolution (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/19/opinion/sunday/friedman-without-water-revolution.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)(Written by Tom Friedman, NYT))
Caveat: Friedman is full of crap as often as not, but he may be on to something here.

He sees the war through the prism of draught, and of the government's poor water policy. In Texas, we have similar issues at hand with the boom in the Eagle Ford Shale region, which also has ground water issues in an agricultural region. Eerie parallel ...

“The drought did not cause Syria’s civil war,” said the Syrian economist Samir Aita, but, he added, the failure of the government to respond to the drought played a huge role in fueling the uprising. What happened, Aita explained, was that after Assad took over in 2000 he opened up the regulated agricultural sector in Syria for big farmers, many of them government cronies, to buy up land and drill as much water as they wanted, eventually severely diminishing the water table. This began driving small farmers off the land into towns, where they had to scrounge for work.
Then, between 2006 and 2011, some 60 percent of Syria’s land mass was ravaged by the drought and, with the water table already too low and river irrigation shrunken, it wiped out the livelihoods of 800,000 Syrian farmers and herders, the United Nations reported.
“State and government was invented in this part of the world, in ancient Mesopotamia, precisely to manage irrigation and crop growing,” said Aita, “and Assad failed in that basic task.”
The best jobs in Hasakah Province, Syria’s oil-producing region, were with the oil companies. But drought refugees, virtually all of whom were Sunni Muslims, could only dream of getting hired there. “Most of those jobs went to Alawites from Tartous and Latakia,” said Zakaria, referring to the minority sect to which President Assad belongs and which is concentrated in these coastal cities. “It made people even more angry. The best jobs on our lands in our province were not for us, but for people who come from outside.”

Comment on the sectarian nature of the civil war, in contrast to the war for independence from France? The motto then:
“Religion is for God, and the country is for everyone.”
That attitude seems to no longer be popular.

This of course isn't the only point of view on this civil war, but it informs somewhat the mechanism by which so much of the population was open to radicalization: despot exploits people and resources, and massive move from rural to urban settings by a displaced population.

Recipe for revolt.

[VinRouge]

with the number of islamist suufi nutters getting turned into worm food, including a large influx of the most extreme black flag waving aq, supporting both sides gets my vote. At the very best, we should just leave them to it. from previous footage, its oretty obvious these people want to live on a sixth century battlefield, consuming human organs. why should i risk my neck to defend the indefensible?

the Phrophet made it pretty clear what would happen to those engaging in fitna.

[NutLoose]

Luckiest rebels out there, watch the anti tank missile just clear the turret at about 1.12 mins

Video: Missile Misses Tank by Inches - Middle East - News - Israel National News (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168051#.UZYWA8rEfTo)

[Lonewolf_50]

Close shave. I wonder if the tank crew was shooting at the anti tank missile firing position. Some AT weapons leave a pretty large visual signature when they go off.

[racedo]

Seems like FSA now getting zero support as Assad having weathered the storm and been resupplied and retrained the spring campaign is winning back lost territory.

Benghazi is potentially having a direct impact as US pulls its supply lines and the other GCC states realising the $$$$ don't all go that far.

The fact that native population haven't joined up in their millions pretty much gives an end game which is unlikely to be pleasant and scores will be settled.

[500N]

That was close.

I couldn't freeze frame it on my system, anyone manage to work
out what type it was ?

[Lonewolf_50]

Looks like the Israelis and Syrians are getting on each others' nerves near Golan ... more fun.

Israel and Syria clash on Golan Heights cease-fire line - World News (http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/21/18398270-israel-and-syria-clash-on-golan-heights-cease-fire-line?lite)

News this morning seems to confirm, from Hezbollah and Syrian sources, the Hezbollah and Syria are "shoulder to shoulder" in a few fights in central/west Syria.

Not pleased to see that ... :(

[TEEEJ]

500N wrote

I couldn't freeze frame it on my system, anyone manage to work out what type it was ?

http://i66.photobucket.com/albums/h261/TOMMYJO/ATGM.jpg

[ORAC]

Hmmmm, American FGM-148 ATGM (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FGM-148_Javelin)????

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/Army-fgm148.jpg/300px-Army-fgm148.jpg

[Heathrow Harry]

the rebels have been using the Russian Metis (AT-13 Saxhorn) IIRC

[ORAC]

Definitely not the Metis-M (http://warfare.be/db/catid/261/linkid/1663/)

http://www.army-guide.com/images/metis-m00z0f0g-12.jpg

[500N]

I couldn't find anything Russian that looked like it
but that doesn't mean it's not.

It certainly looks close to the Javelin.

Any thoughts from anyone ?


If it is a Javelin, does that mean US Troops might be on the ground
or the US has supplied a few to the rebels ?????

[tonker]

And now it arrives here..

'Shootings' and 'machete attack' in south east London: live - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/10074029/Shootings-and-machete-attack-in-south-east-London-live.html)

[Lonewolf_50]

If it is a Javelin, does that mean US Troops might be on the ground
or the US has supplied a few to the rebels ?????
US troops on the ground fighting for the Assad side?

Not likely. IIRC, that video is a shot of a rebel group in action with a tank.

Various gear of war has been infiltrating into Syria via a few of our allies in the Persian Gulf for the past few years, to support various insurgent factions.

They have plenty of American kit that might get slipped across a border here and there ...

[Onceapilot]

Russia will deploy S-300 according to BBC:ouch:.

oap

[Ronald Reagan]

BBC News - EU ends arms embargo on Syria rebels (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22684948)

Its totally insane, giving weapons to terrorists. Its really the UK and France to blame for this, wonder what the real agenda is. The real axis of evil in the world are the UK, France and USA what with all their badly thought out little interventions, actually more like the axis of incompetence.

[Lonewolf_50]

Would the West be doing any of this were the Saudis and a few others not the major suppliers of crude to the industrialized world?

Think back a bit, and ask yourself if the EU and NATO intervention in Bosnia would have happened were the above not an issue? I got a few inklings back in the mid 90's that the Saudis had an influence behind the scene on behalf of the Muslim faction in Bosnia. I do know that Iran had a few hundred Pasdaran in country.

Arming the rebels allows the war to go on longer, which allows more martyrs for the faith and more dead and dying among many and sundry. It also allows for making more refugees who try to flood into Turkey, where they meet a cool reception. They also flood into Jordan, where they may destabilize the government, which is a replay of what led to Black September back in 1970. Keeping the fighting going seems, on the face of it, a way to spread the instability into neighboring countries. Is that what UK and France want?

Here's an out of the box idea; stop the refugee flow. You have to stand and fight.

How would that change the course of events?

Yes, it sounds heartless, but when one triggers the 'fight or flight' response something profound changes in the behavior.

It's an idea, but probalby impossible to implement, and maybe not an idea that would end the fight sooner.

[dead_pan]

Why deploy the S-300 to deter western intervention when it appears there is absolutely no prospect of that? Maybe its more to deter the Israelis and, if so, what else will the Syrians be shipping in under this improved AD cover? Was it revealed what weaponry the Israelis went after a few weeks back?

Maybe Iran are trying to truck something in to northern Lebanon...

[Pure Pursuit]

Why on earth would you want to prevent the innocent from leaving an area of mass murder and random killings?
:ugh:

[Lonewolf_50]

You miss the point, and your presumption of innocence is unwarranted, as refugees arnen't only little children. I also note your inability to think out of the box. Did you bother to read the whole post, which means all of the words, phrases, and sentences? :confused:

If you have to fight to protect your family, and there is no escape, the cornered rat mode may change how things play out.

Of course, you may also assume the fetal position and join the long line of dead victims.

It depends.

[Pure Pursuit]

I fully understood your post however, I satnd by mine.

You are quite correct to assume that not all refugees are innocent however, I would hazard a guess that many of them are. To that end, it would be outrageous to close the door on them and leave them to it.

IMHO, the biggest news of the day was Israel's response to the suggestion that S-300 systems are enroute to Syria. It will be interesting to see if they are targetted by Israel in an attempt to maintain the option to over fly the country should they need to.

[Lonewolf_50]

The IAF will already have some plans in place to neutralize and take out those missiles on the occasion that they need some room over Syrian airspace. Their other concern is being shot at in Israeli airspace, though at the moment I doubt Assad wants to add to his problems.

EDIT:
From here: (http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/28/18557392-israel-warns-of-action-over-russian-plan-to-give-missiles-to-syrias-assad?lite)
“They are trying to basically prevent the escalation of the Syrian conflict not only into neighboring countries, but also into a region-wide conflict. This is what we’re talking about today: Is the fire in Syria devouring and consuming other countries in the region?”
heh, the first domino to fall was Iraq. ;) That is what is spreading to other countries ... more or less.

Also: the Egyptians shut off the attempts and infiltration from Gaza into their land. Funny, genocide didn't happen. Granted, small border, and there were leaks/tunnels.

Others have the same right the Egyptians did to refuse those fleeing entry.

I empathize with the Turks whose city has been inundated with refugees (http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/27/18473267-syrian-refugees-targeted-in-turkish-town?lite&pos=3), and I empathize with the refugees. They are at the mercy of whomever and wherevver. Crap position to be in.

Objective comment: if you flee your country, you concede defeat vis a vis whomever it is that you are fleeing, be it government or the local Sunni group or the local jihadis or whatever.

[Ronald Reagan]

The IAF should not be flying over Syria in the first place. If any other country in the world simply attacked another sovereign nation because they felt like it then the repercussions would be very harsh indeed.
I have always supported Israel in the past BUT there needs to be a limit on what they are allowed to do.

[Lonewolf_50]

Ronald, that's a valid point, and has a valid counter: why should Israel allow Hezbollah access to more weapons if they can prevent it? Syria is aiding and abetting the arming of Hezbollah, and for that matter, Hezbollah is fighting shoulder to shoulder in Western Syria with Assad's forces.

It's not as black and white as you'd like it to be.

Civil wars are messy enough, and are even messier when outsiders get involved.

See Spanish Civil War of 1036-1939 for a stellar example.

[TEEEJ]

Interesting development in regards to Russia going ahead with the Syrian S-300 contract. Will they now go ahead with the Iranian S-300 contract? Certainly the Iranians engineer and technicians will be all over the system once delivered to Syria. Will the crafty Russians deploy personnel to jointly man the system to deter Iranian interest and Israeli air strikes? Interesting times ahead?

Various media are quoting apparent tough talk from the Israeli Defence Minister.

Israel "will know what to do" if Russia delivers highly advanced anti-aircraft missiles to Syria, Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said Tuesday.

AFP said this was “an apparent allusion to another air strike” on Syria.

"The deliveries have not taken place – I can attest to this – and I hope they do not. But if, by some misfortune, they arrive in Syria, we will know what to do," Yaalon said.

Yaalon: We'll Know what to Do If Syria Gets S-300 - Defense/Security - News - Israel National News (http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/168404#.UaTb4EDVCSo)

[dead_pan]

If any other country in the world simply attacked another sovereign nation because they felt like it then the repercussions would be very harsh indeed.

Hmm, I can think of several recent examples where there were no repercussions at all (North-South Korea, Russia-Georgia, US-Iraq).

It is intriguing all this fanfare about the S-300 given there is no air threat to the regime at present. Were the Saudis or Qataris, or maybe the Turks, up to something? Not sure if the former has any airbases in the north of their country - if so these would be no more than a few tens of minutes flying time from Syrian airspace.

[Rosevidney1]

The EU idea to arm the Syrian rebels is disgusting and the results unpredictable to say the least. Try this little thought 'Were we pleased when the Libyan government supplied arms to the IRA?'
Someone is bound to say it is not the same sort of thing. :ugh:

[Ronald Reagan]

Totally agree Rosevidney1. These terrorists in Syria are terrible. I have just watched two videos of them chopping off people's heads with a machete!
Yet the west supports these people!!!! We ruined Libya and Iraq, now the west wants to ruin Syria!!!! The UK, France and USA are the real axis of evil in the world. Basically if there are any good guys in this its Russia and China yet again trying to stop western warmongers. The stronger those two nations get all the better for world stability. If they can stop the west in its tracks then that's a very good thing.

[Lonewolf_50]

Basically if there are any good guys in this its Russia and China yet again trying to stop western warmongers.

Check your meds, Ron. When China and Russia are the good guys, the jig is already up.


Aside: Self hating Westerners are a despicable lot. You don't want to be in their company.

Rosey: Your points have some merit. Some of the problem with arming the various rebels is that it prolongs the war, ups the body count, and continues with the refugee flow into neighboring nations.

None of that is good.

[smujsmith]

Rosevidney

In my humble opinion a truly erudite question. Unfortunately, with the way things are in modern politics, history, and the learning of it, seems to mean little now. Spin is King. After the recent bombing in Boston, I was struck by the sympathy and support shown to the citizens of that city by our media, politicians and public. I remember sitting in a bar in Boston (back in the days), watching "locals" tossing dollar bills into IRA (NORAID) collection buckets, at a time when Canary wharf bombings etc were happening. I, like all of us I'm sure, hoped that no one would be hurt. We are now, IMHO, going down the same route of arming the people who will eventually use the weapons against us, and no I'm not suggesting the IRA did Boston, just it's a similar lesson we should remember, and should steer well clear of it. Out of interest, what is our history with Syria ? Do we have some sort of moral obligation to get involved, post colonialism etc ? It's all very confusing to me, simpleton what I am, and once the likes of Bill Hague get going, well, I remember a certain Blair and Iraq.:oh:

Smudge

[Ronald Reagan]

We in the west gave up being the good guys a long time ago. The Russians and Chinese have not in recent years engaged in war after war and always seem to prefer to talk or simply trade with anyone/everyone! We in the west seem to think we know best yet cannot even run our own nations properly.
My friends all over the world, in Russia, China, South America, the Middle East, South America, New Zealand, even in our own nations think we are mad with what we are doing, not only mad but wrong, yet our own leadership have their own agenda, its most certainly not in the best interests of the people.

[Lowe Flieger]

Syria: We should not arm the rebels - Defence Management (http://www.defencemanagement.com/feature_story.asp?id=22714)

I agree with John Baron - see link above.

A foreign policy predicated on not interfering in the internal affairs of another country is a sound policy in my opinion. In the last 20 years, there has been marked shift whereby we have sought to impose our solutions on others. This may be well-intentioned, with ulterior motives, or both, but does not always have the effects we intend. The role of peacemaker often means eventually becoming the lightning-rod for all factions in a civil war.

Our direct involvement should be limited to supporting the charities which try to alleviate the suffering of those caught up in the mayhem.

LF

[reynoldsno1]

... I'm sure the IDF will be doing a lot of people's dirty work for them.

[Ronald Reagan]

Rand Paul: Senate Is Arming Al-Qaeda and Rushing to War in Syria (http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/congress/item/15515-rand-paul-senate-is-arming-al-qaeda-and-rushing-to-war-in-syria)

[Lonewolf_50]

There are a lot of good arguments for "let them play" but you do run into a real political problem.

"Hey, you lot helped out Bosniaks, why didn't you help Syria? You lot helped stop the civil war in Libya, why not Syria? You lot, using the UN, spent a lot of time and effort helping in Somalia, for good and ill, why not in Syria?" "

This conversation can take some unfriendly and nasty turns. So modern politics, in the globalized political environment, and membership in things like the UN, lead to political moves that might not otherwise be taken due to quid pro quo.

If you do this, or help there, we'll do that, or not do the other.

It goes on constantly.

[Heathrow Harry]

Rwanda, Libya, Somalia, Afghanistan, Cambodia, Angola..... all hard cases

Don't think you can ever be dogmatic about when and where you will/won't intervene

[Rosevidney1]

Lonewolf _50, The UN is past redemption and has for a long time failed to be fit for any useful purpose. It is incredibly bureaucratic and expensive and has been a talking shop for the pampered representatives of many lands for far too long. The world got rid of the League of Nations quickly enough when it was seen to fail. How much longer will we have to endure shovelling money into the UN and its myriad agencies?

[Lonewolf_50]

I find the UN good for some things, piss poor in others.

You and I can complain about it, but I don't see it going away any time soon. So, as it's there, use it as a tool. Not the only tool, but a tool. To choose not to is to limit ones options unnecessarily.

Your point on UN corruption and bureaucracy is both noted and agreed.

[ORAC]

Grauniad: • The first shipment of Russian anti-aircraft missiles has arrived in Syria, Bashar al-Assad has said, according to Lebanese TV. The Al-Manar TV channel owned by the Shia militant group Hezbollah, which has joined the Syrian civil war on Assad’s side, said it would air a full interview with the Syrian president later today.

Israel has indicated it is likely to attack the weapons if they fall into the hands of Hezbollah or other hostile groups. "I don't know how upset the Russians would be if, at some point between payment and the installation of this technology in Damascus by Russian experts, something was done to damage the weaponry. As long as no Russians were hurt and they got paid, I don't think they would care," an Israeli diplomat told the Guardian yesterday.

The Russian move to fulfil its longstanding deal with Syria is widely seen as being retaliation for the EU’s move to drop its arms embargo on the Syrian rebels.

[Lonewolf_50]

Stage is being set for this civil war to continue for quite some time.

Is that everybody's aim? :confused:

[ZeBedie]

S300 range of 200km must be more than any air to surface anti-radiation missile, I guess?

[GreenKnight121]

That's the intercept range as part of a functioning integrated air defense network.

Syria doesn't have one of those anymore, so the actual intercept range will be much shorter.

[GreenKnight121]

The radical Sunni rebels have been getting weapons, because their suppliers have been ignoring the EU's weapons embargo, and such.

The Shiite supporters of Assad, and Assad's government, are still getting weapons, mainly from Russia and Iran.


The only group which hasn't been getting weapons is the "moderate opposition", because they won't agree to the political terms the suppliers of the radicals, and because their supporters have been obeying the arms embargoes.


Those are who the EU has decided need arms.

Think, as it stands now, if Assad falls, who is best positioned to take over by "right of arms"... the unarmed moderates or the armed radicals?

[TEEEJ]

Russian sources are now disputing the claims of S-300 delivery by Assad.

A spokesperson told the Guardian that the foreign ministry was preparing to issue an official statement on the S-300 delivery, but would not disclose when it would be released.

Syria 'will not receive Russian S-300 missiles for at least a year' | World news | guardian.co.uk (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/may/31/syria-russian-s-300-missiles)

Russia unlikely to send S-300 missiles to Syria before autumn - Interfax | Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/uk-syria-crisis-russia-missile-idUKBRE94U0BN20130531)

Syrian contract for upgraded MiG-29s.

Russian arms manufacturer signs contract to sell at least 10 MiG fighter jets to Syria - The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/russian-arms-manufacturer-signs-contract-to-sell-at-least-10-mig-fighter-jets-to-syria/2013/05/31/0546ca24-c9cc-11e2-9cd9-3b9a22a4000a_story.html)

[Ronald Reagan]

Turkish Police find Chemical Weapons in the Possession of Al Nusra Terrorists heading for Syria | Global Research (http://www.globalresearch.ca/turkish-police-find-chemical-weapons-in-the-possession-of-al-nusra-terrorists-heading-for-syria/5336917)

[ORAC]

The trouble in Syria now seems to have an increasing chance of exploding throughout the entire Middle East....

Muslim Brotherhood cleric calls for Sunni jihad in Syria (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10094590/Muslim-Brotherhood-cleric-calls-for-Sunni-jihad-in-Syria.html)

The spiritual mentor of the worldwide Muslim Brotherhood movement has risked further inflaming sectarian tension across the Middle East by using highly charged religious rhetoric to call for a Sunni "jihad" in Syria.

Yusef al-Qaradawi, who is based in Qatar and has been a leading voice supporting the Arab Spring, warned that Iranian Shia were trying to "eat" Sunni Muslims, who are a majority in the Muslim world.

He referred to Alawites, the followers of the Muslim sect to which President Bashar al-Assad of Syria belongs, as being "worse infidels than Christians or Jews". He also used the deliberately contemptuous term "Nusayris" when talking about them. He was particularly critical of the roles played by Iran, which is largely Shia, and the Lebanon Shia militia Hizbollah whose name translates as Party of God but which he called "Party of Satan", in supporting the Assad regime.

"There is no common ground between the two sides because the Iranians, especially conservatives, want to eat the Sunni people," he said............

The Muslim Brotherhood, though a Sunni, Islamist movement that has given birth to a number of jihadist offshoots, has been held up as a "moderating" force within Arab Spring countries with which the West "can do business". Egypt has a Muslim Brotherhood president, while the coalition government in Tunisia is led by a Brotherhood-linked organisation backed by Dr Qaradawi.

Dr Qaradawi himself, who is Egyptian by birth but has lived in Qatar for many years and is regarded as a key factor in the active role the Qatari royal family has played in backing the Arab Spring uprisings with arms and money, has a controversial record in the West.

However, his latest comments, made in a mosque in Qatar on Friday, go beyond his previous political sermons. He himself acknowledged he had become more radical. "People involved in reconciliation between the sects... said that I used to be the one calling for reconciliation and doctrinal unity. They asked why I don't take up that call again. "Well, I called for reconciliation but I found it did not bring the sects closer. They benefited from it and we failed to take advantage." He also apologised for his past words in favour of Hizbollah. "The Shia deceived me," he said. "I was less mature than the Sunni scholars who were aware of the truth of that party."

He said Sunni Muslims around the world should not wait for the West to help the rebel cause against the "Nusayris", the Iranians and "the party of God". "They are the party of Satan, the party of the tyrant," he said. "The party of God does not kill Muslims, and these people draw close to God by killing Muslims."

The war in Syria has split the region largely along sectarian lines, with Sunni Gulf and North African states largely supporting the rebels, and Shia Iran and Shia communities in Lebanon and Iraq supporting the regime.

The city of Tripoli in northern Lebanon has already seen fighting between Sunni and Alawite districts, while there has been a rise in sectarian violence in Iraq where many Sunnis have tribal links to Syria but the government represents the majority Shia community and is close to Iran.

[TEEEJ]

Russia has not yet delivered S-300 missiles to Syria: Putin

AFP - Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday Moscow had not yet delivered its sophisticated S-300 missiles to the Damascus regime despite hints from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad that such shipments had already been made.

"The contract was signed several years ago. It has not been realised yet," Putin said at a joint press conference with EU leaders. "We do not want to upset the balance in the region."

Russia has not yet delivered S-300 missiles to Syria: Putin - FRANCE 24 (http://www.france24.com/en/20130604-russia-has-not-yet-delivered-300-missiles-syria-putin)

“As for the S-300s, it’s one of the best air defense systems in the world,” Putin said following a Russia-EU summit. “It’s a serious weapon. We would not like to tip the balance of power in the region. We signed the contract a few years ago. It has not been implemented yet.”

Russian contract for delivery of S-300s to Syria yet to be fulfilled - Putin ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/putin-s300-syria-contract-207/)

[Lonewolf_50]

He said Sunni Muslims around the world should not wait for the West to help the rebel cause against the "Nusayris", the Iranians and "the party of God".

"They are the party of Satan, the party of the tyrant," he said. "The party of God does not kill Muslims, and these people draw close to God by killing
Muslims."

The war in Syria has split the region largely along sectarian lines, with Sunni Gulf and North African states largely supporting the rebels, and Shia Iran and Shia communities in Lebanon and Iraq supporting the regime.

The city of Tripoli in northern Lebanon has already seen fighting between Sunni and Alawite districts, while there has been a rise in sectarian violence in Iraq where many Sunnis have tribal links to Syria but the government represents the majority Shia community and is close to Iran.
If you get the foreigners to move out and away, these folks don't have anyone else to fight with, so they fight each other. (Point of reference is regional).

If that's what they want, that's what they'll get. We'll see whether or not he's yet another "spokesman" making a lot of noise, or if he's a leader whose general direction is followed by others ...

My recommendation: invest in body bag futures. :mad:

[BEagle]

Sunni and Shia?

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a341/nw969/SampC_zpsd78b1c98.jpg (http://s14.photobucket.com/user/nw969/media/SampC_zpsd78b1c98.jpg.html)

Or Sonny and Cher?

[Eclectic]

Presumably Putin has not delivered the S-300s because Israel have had a quiet word with him explaining what would happen next. They won't tolerate a new threat in the area that could operate in a big slice of their own airspace.

This is becoming more and more a proxy war. With Iran supporting Assad and Hezbollah on the Shia side and Saudi and Qatar supporting the FSA and the Salafists on the Sunni side.
The large scale involvement of Hezbollah seems to have turned the current tide in favour of Assad who is using them, along with air power, to do some substantial ethnic cleansing of Sunnis out of Alawite areas. The Sunni's are responding by bombarding Hezbollah areas in the Lebanon. So we are getting a regional conflict. Israel will strike against Hezbollah every time they think strategy dictates that they must.

We should definitely not get involved in any way or form. Neither side occupies the moral high ground. Over 100 Brits are in Syria fighting with the Salafists, getting training and radicalisation, this they will bring back to the UK with them and cause much trouble. MI6 should be acting directly against these individuals.

Turkey complicates things. Till now they have been incredibly supportive of the Syrian opposition, acting as a conduit for weapons and training, as well as putting Patriots along the border. However they did not react when the Syrians shot down their Phantom. The current disturbances could distract the Turkish government away from the Syrian issue and if the army take over they would probably be likewise distracted. Or maybe they would be more hawkish.

Certainly we live in interesting times, with no outcome certain and with events certain to be very unpredictable. The biggest real danger to us is Syrian chemical weapons finding their way to the West for fundamentalist terrorist use. Followed by the danger of MANPADs being used at Western airports.

[GreenKnight121]

Ah, yes... Israel the secret superpower!

Capable of dictating to Russia, secret funder of all the world's wars, puller-of-strings in the capital of every nation of the world.

We are all helpless against the Zionist Conspiracy!

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:



See men in the shadows much? How's that tin-foil hat fit?

[henra]

Ah, yes... Israel the secret superpower!

Capable of dictating to Russia, secret funder of all the world's wars, puller-of-strings in the capital of every nation of the world.


Maybe not directly but given that Russia has a vested interest in the Assad Regime in order to Keep their sole Mediterranean Base, Russia might Re- think which wepaons to deliver based on 'Cost'/Benefit Analysis.
While S-300s won't help Assad much against the rebels it would be a direct threat to Israel. Israel hasn't yet got too much involved in the conflict.
Russia will prefer that it stays that way. In contrast to Russia, Israel has never shied away from intervening directly if they consider appropriate. So Israel could easily help shifting the powers in Syria if they feel it necessary. For Russia that is much more delicate.

Therefore I wouldn't go so far to say they could dictate but still they might be able to convince Russia that sending some MiGs down there is still OK but sending the S-300 is not a good idea. at the same time Russia can put some pressure on Israel not to intervene, threatening to deliver the S-300. Once delivered they can't use that any more.
So there even might be something to it....

[smujsmith]

I see that this evening, the French are insisting that Assads mob are using Sarin gas. This based on:

1. Blood samples tested in France.

2. France has access to Sarin gas, if not from French sources I'm sure Bill Hague would gladly help out.

The "results" were passed to the UN who agreed, Sarin gas was in evidence, but they "could not" confirm the origin. I'm starting to smell a Bliar around somewhere. I'll take the flak, but could somebody tell me why we have to see more bodies shipped home, more people attacked and butchered on our streets because once again politicians fed us a load of bollocks? My personal opinion is that our beloved Foreign Office has picked a side, got it wrong and now are too proud to accept that the country is not with them. Once again, the smell of Bliar is in the air.

Smudge

[fergineer]

You will get no flak from me Smuj I think you could be right, I would not listen to anything the polies say any more

[West Coast]

No danger in completely disregarding what someone to include a poli says now is there?

[Eclectic]

The most hawkish Western nation over Syria is France.
The reason is simple. Francois Hollande, the president, is a socialist and so is making a huge mess of running the country. This is making him deeply unpopular. A good war would distract the voters and maybe make him less unpopular. It worked for Margaret Thatcher with the Falklands and Gulf wars.

As for nerve gas. It is obvious that both sides have it, the rebels having captured it from bases they have over-run. So who has used it? Why would Assad when he can just drop oil drums full of explosives from helicopters onto Sunni crowds, such as bread queues? But the rebels have a very good reason to use it. They can pin the blame on Assad and so bring in the American intervention that they so desperately want and need.

At the moment we are being fed a lot of disinformation by Hague, France, the Russians, the biased BBC, all the Middle East Sunnis, all the Middle East Shias and anyone else with a vested interest. Cynicism is the only sensible position to adopt. Certainly with so many fundamentalist nutters on the rebel side we would very easily make things much worse by intervening.

In reality we are probably headed for a no fly zone in the north of Syria. Enforced by Turkey, UK, France and USA. Luckily Obama is an indecisive wimp who sits on his hands and the Turkish government is otherwise occupied.
The rationale behind the no fly zone will be to stem the huge flood of refugees, which in itself is massively destabilising. Also Lebanon is a powder keg which is about to explode and further conflate the problem.

Ho hum, interesting times.

[Not_a_boffin]

Regrettably, we're in this territory...

Nuke the entire site fom orbit - YouTube

[Heathrow Harry]

"Ah, yes... Israel the secret superpower!"

Wellllll...

Don't they have N weapons?

And a bigger airforce than Germany or the UK or France???

Plus a substantial army which is way better equipped than many in Europe??

They don't have much of a Navy true - but I reckon in terms of deliverable armed power they probably come second after the USA

[Eclectic]

@GreenKnight121
Israel is a strategic nuclear power. With around 200 warheads and Jericho III ICBMs to deliver them with.
Their military has a long history of striking with impunity anywhere they want to. They are exceptionally well trained, motivated and equipped. For instance we got much of our UAV technology from them and they lead in ABM technology.
They are a democracy with a popular and very strong prime minister who can be guaranteed to act as and when necessary. Mossad, their intelligence agency, knows more about what is happening inside Middle Eastern countries than their own leaders do.

Russia is a clapped out and highly corrupt shamocracy which is depopulating and has a critically ageing demographic. Their economy depends totally on gas and oil. They are led by an unpopular idiot dictator who postures like Mussolini and who is afraid of girls (Pussy Riot). Their military is also highly corrupt and based on a culture of bullying. They have trouble getting their rust bucket ships to sea or their geriatric aircraft in the air. A typical military breakfast includes copious vodka.

Syria is in the Eastern Mediterranean, an area where Israel has had overwhelming military capability for decades and has demonstrated this comprehensively and repeatedly.
Russia's presence in the Eastern Mediterranean is several levels down from that of the boy scouts. If they do anything that strategically raises the threat against Israel then Israel would have no compunction in acting, quickly and with full force. If Russian "technicians" are casualties then Israel will not give a damn. And Putin, for all his posturing stupidity, knows this.

[Roland Pulfrew]

an area where Israel has had overwhelming military capability for decades and has demonstrated this comprehensively and repeatedly.


Excepting, of course 2006 where they arguably got their @rses kicked by Lebanese Hezbollah (sp?), despite apparent "overwhelming military capability". At best it could be called a draw; at worst a defeat for the Israeli Military - just saying.

[Ronald Reagan]

Eclectic, I think that both Bibi and Putin are popular in their own respective nations. I remember hearing a former CIA man saying in his opinion that Putin is one of the most capable and switched on leaders in the world, mainly due to his FSB background, a leader who really understands what is going on and how the game is played. He is certainly more capable than any western leader. Most of my Russian friends like him.

Granted Bibi is highly switched on aswell.

While I agree Russia had huge problems things are improving and their military is certainly not anything the way you describe. They are either military power number 2 or 3 in the world, its hard to say if China or Russia is number 2. Eventually China will be number 1 power in the world.
If you were to add Russian and Chinese forces together right now you end up with something that really comes close to matching if not surpassing the US military.

Israel has probably the best trained military on Earth and are indeed powerful, far more so than any European nation, but they are not in the same league as Russia, China or the USA.

In conventional terms Turkey is a very powerful nation, her conventional forces are far stronger than any European military.

The west is supporting the wrong side in Syria. Russia and China are right to point this out, sure they have their own agenda, but it does not make them wrong.

[Lonewolf_50]

The news report that in Turkey police captured some folks with Sarin gas, folks who were tied to one of the Sunni factions, doesn't seem to have grown legs.
Was the report bogus?

[ORAC]

While I agree Russia had huge problems things are improving No, economically, militarily and in terms of population Russia is in terminal decline. Just a matter of when - especially since the only real market that had left - gas/oil - is dying due to the discovery/exploitation of shale.

A biased, but knowledgable blog on Russian politics and industry.

Streetwise Professor (http://streetwiseprofessor.com)

The west is supporting the wrong side in Syria. There's a right side? And do we have to support either?

[Ronald Reagan]

ORAC, I would agree its best for us not to get involved at all, yet we are openly supporting the rebels, the worst of the two sides in my opinion.

As for Russia, having a vast nation, a small population and being rich in resources has got to be a good thing. I mean look at many of the European nations, small, hugely overpopulated, no resources, hugely in debt. Japan is the same. While Russia is hardly a top economic player I would say things are not nearly that bad for them. If their situation is regarded as bad then I cannot imagine how bad its going to be for UK, Europe, Japan etc.

I have always felt that the UK, Europe, USA and Japan are all in terminal decline. That the future is China, India, South America, maybe Russia due to her resources. I certainly think Russia has a better future than the EU.

I was reading recently how some of the most fertile ground for growing crops in the world is in Russia, with modern technology that's going to be another important industry for Russia to exploit. There will be a huge market with the people of China and India.

[Ronald Reagan]

Lonewolf_50, the west probably killed the report as it makes the rebel good guys look bad.

[Party Animal]

ORAC,

No, economically, militarily and in terms of population Russia is in terminal decline.

I cannot comment on the economy, nor population decline however, the Russian Navy is certainly not going downhill. A huge increase in spending is working its way through their system resulting in some excellent new submarines etc, shortly coming into service (well advertised from unclassified sources by the way).

As this post is about Syria, Russian defence material exports are obviously doing well too.

[Eclectic]

@Party Animal

And Russian military kit worked so well against us in Iraq and Libya?

And the Israelis have no problem flying over Syria with impunity when they feel like it.

[Heathrow Harry]

ORAC wrote

"especially since the only real market that had left - gas/oil - is dying due to the discovery/exploitation of shale."

that only applies in the USA ORAc - Saudi/Russia/Iraq can still produce zillions of barrels of conventional oil at prices that are way below shale oil costs - which is why so far it hasn't taken off anywhere else

The US produces shale oil because it has almost run out of conventional - but the cost per bbl for Saudi production is lass than a$ 1 a barrel I believe

Shale oil needs something like 10-15 times that price to work even in the States

[Ronald Reagan]

Eclectic, it worked well against US aircraft in Vietnam!

Also the west has not gun up against Russian kit operated by Russians for a very long time. I think the wars you mention and the way they went more reflects the quality of the military forces of those nations rather than the equipment.

Many have underestimated the Russians before and paid a very heavy price for that. Never underestimate the Russians.

When it comes to the west and its wars the Russian and Chinese people are fully behind their governments, they think one day the west may go against them, a kind of who will they attack/invade next?! Through these wars we lose any possible means of portraying ourselves as the good guys to the people of so many nations. We make ourselves look like the bad guys.

[Tankertrashnav]

We should definitely not get involved in any way or form. Neither side occupies the moral high ground.


Probably the most indisputable statement so far in this whole discussion, Eclectic.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

to take the statement a step further, from a partisan point of view we are better off having half the muslim world trying to kick the sh!t out of the other half - keeps them (mostly) off our backs!

Taking sides would be rank stupidity. Diplomacy requires us to weep, wail and gnash teeth, etc, but for f#cks sake DO nothing.

[bcgallacher]

Where did all this common sense come from? The UK population really does not give a toss if the followers of the religion of peace kill each other in industrial quantities. Any regime change will just substitute one group of corrupt murderous thugs for another.

[Dak Man]

Is CMD losing the plot?

His commons statement on Monday was confused to say the least.

By backing the "rebels" he's siding with AQ.

This is a Sunni Vs Shiaa fight, have they ever stopped fighting in 1300 years?????

Is Assad as bad as he's made out to be?

Assad is Iran's best ally in the region, ergo any negotiated peace would need to have Iran's backing.

This is not about democracy, the Saudi's back the "rebels" and the last time I looked Saudi Arabia was hardly a shining light of democracy.

It could be a pre-cursor for a conflict with Iran, but the pesky Ruskies have outmonoeuvred everyone by supporting Assad - my goodness, how this could so easily escalate.

CMD is heading towards Blair like rationality prior to 2003 :ugh:

[Roland Pulfrew]

Very nice summary (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10100943/Can-David-Cameron-explain-why-he-has-put-us-on-al-Qaedas-side.html) DakMan ;)

[Dak Man]

fek me, someone agrees with me and the Torygraph, will have to change my opinion now.

[Lonewolf_50]

Report today was: Austria pulling its troops (360 of them) out of the Golan. The UN force in the Golan is about 1000. I seem to recall some bad things going on previously in this region when the UN bails ... cross border fighting starts.

Not a good sign, in re Syria and Israel.

Things possibly getting messier. :p

[GreenKnight121]

Austrian peacekeepers withdraw from Golan Heights | New Europe (http://www.neurope.eu/article/austrian-peacekeepers-withdraw-golan-heights)
Austrian peacekeepers withdraw from Golan Heights By Karafillis Giannoulis (http://www.neurope.eu/author/new-europe-online-gk-0) | June 11, 2013 - 2:32pm


The Austrian peacekeepers in the demilitarised zone of Golan Heights are withdrawing from the area due to safety reasons and a lack of freedom of movement.

The tension is rising in the Golan Heights, as the Syrian rebels seized the Quneitra crossing late last week in an incident that injured two of the UN peacekeepers. After the incident, Austria announced its intention to remove its troops from the area.

On 11 June, al Jazeera reported that the Austrian peacekeepers left Golan Heights and headed to the main UN base on the Israeli side. Austria is expected to remove all of its UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) troops sent in the area later this month. At this point it is important to emphasise that the EU Member State contributes about one-third of UNDOF in the Golan Heights.

On 7 June, the members of the UN Security Council had expressed their concern at the escalation of tension in the Golan Heights. Ambassador Mark Lyall Grant of the UK said that the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations (DPKO) is currently looking to engage with countries, able and willing to increase their troops in the Golan Heights and fill the gap that will be left by the Austrian withdrawal. According to Grant officials from DPKO, “will also be looking at the possibility of new troop contributors and getting them into the theatre as soon as possible, at the same time as trying to encourage the Austrians to slow down their departure from the theatre and dissuade any other current troop contributors from withdrawing troops.”

Grant stressed that it’s important for UNDOF to continue his key role in guaranteeing the 1974 ceasefire disengagement agreement between Israel and Syria. Therefore the presence of UNDOF in the Golan Heights, a region which was captured by the Israeli forces during the 1967 Six-Day War, remains extremely crucial for the prevention of any spill-over effect.

The gradual withdrawal of the Austrian peacekeepers is not the first, as Japan and Croatia have also withdrawn their troops in recent months as battles between the two Syrian sides had spread into the ceasefire zone.

Russia has declared its willingness to fill the gap in the Golan Heights but the 1974 UN international agreement that created the UN force in the area, doesn’t allow any member of the UN Security Council to participate in the mission.

[spooky3]

BBC News - Syria death toll at least 93,000, says UN (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-22886730)

[flyhardmo]

I can't help but wonder if our governments and other gulf states didn't send weapons, advisers and combatants to the 'rebel' then this war would have been over a long time ago and the death toll would have been significantly reduced.

[glad rag]

Indeed, our political leaders seem determined to leave us with blood soaked hands no matter what.

[smujsmith]

Well, I think anyone who follows public commentary on daily press reports will see, there is little appetite for supporting Hague or Cameron in supplying weapons. However, like Bliar before them, selective "recognition" of the people's wishes will obviously come in to play. What I do believe is that the people with the "blood on their hands" , will be the ones that push for supplying arms, against the wishes of joe public.

Smudge

[Dak Man]

Smudge, you're not the Shakyboat Smudge that did the (in)famous Smudge disapperaing trick on the ML2 course are you?

[smujsmith]

Dak Man,

Sorry mate, I've watched many, silly in my opinion, "shaky boats" people jump out of my perfectly serviceable aircraft, but doubt I would ever have the temerity to claim to be one. Shaky - maybe, especially these days, boats - not as long as there's an alternative. Or are you referring to the, "Im just going to check something on the roof of the aircraft, don't let the loadie put the hatch back in"?

Smudge (ex Airman, not Royal Marine) :ok:

[Eclectic]

So, as predicted, the Western allies in this folly are going for a no fly zone (or maybe two, one along the Lebanese border and one along the Turkish border).
It will be interesting to see how they implement this.
The day one SEAD phase will be interesting against such a strong integrated air defence.
It will be interesting to see which forces "our" side deploys. Presumably from a mixture of carriers and Akrotiri.
Will they go OTT (as usual) and pre-emptively take out the Syrian airforce on the ground?
Will Israel just sit there and watch? And what will Iran do?

[Ronald Reagan]

I am sickened and ashamed at the UK and USA for doing this. Its none of our business and all this talk of chemical weapons reminds me of Iraq 2003, yet another lie.
If only the Russians and Chinese would do more to stop this imperialism, maybe one day they will! I hope the rest of the world understands its not the majority population in the UK/USA who want this but a ruling elite who are very far removed from reality.
Handing over Syria to a bunch of radicals is a very bad idea, giving said people weapons and training is also a very bad idea.

Moscow unconvinced by US evidence of Syrian chemical weapons use ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/syria-chemical-weapons-moscow-692/)

US to give military support to Syrian rebels as ?red line' crossed ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/us-claims-assad-chemical-weapons-671/)

[ShotOne]

Govt says today no decision taken....which presumably means RAF operations in support of Al Qaeda start sometime soon. Best of luck boys!

[Dak Man]

Thanks for clarifying Smudge.:ok:

When I think about Syria and the Middle East in general, I'm always mided of the interview that Gen Wes Clark gave a while back.

GENERAL WESLEY CLARK SPEAKING 2007 ON IRAN LIBYA SYRIA IRAQ AND 911 - YouTube

[Lonewolf_50]

General Clark ... I guess he was wrong about the seven countries in five years, eh? :p

I'll suggest to you that he was leaving a lot out of that story. ;)

[smujsmith]

You just can't help but get that horrible feeling that all of our politicians are off on a military adventure that they feel they can always blame on, intelligence reports, military can do attitude etc etc. We see real proof that the vast majority of the "bosses of Westminster" (us) have no interest in becoming involved in this conflict. I also ask, that should an indigenous grouping within UK decide to "kick up" against the government, would we be obliged to support them with weapons, and (as Mr (I was in the Air Force)) McCain says, Air cover and a chance to make their point. I suspect that we are off on another expedition to "big up" the political agenda. When it goes wrong they will blame the Army, Navy and Air Force. More than 90 % are said to be against any involvement into Syria, why do the politico's persist? I do have a feeling of Deja vu.

[dctyke]

Start getting those tents back up at Incerlik, Op Deny Assad? Unless, of course the Turks are having their own civil war by then. :ugh:

[smujsmith]

I'm wondering if LCRA might not be a more logical "aircraft carrier" for both our and our US allies air fleets, as they maintain the "Air superiority"espoused by McCain. Turkey seems to have enough problems at the moment. US basing in Israel is also an option. If LCRA was used what do we think the Cypriots might think of incoming missiles, aimed at denying the airfield to our Air Force? It's all a "buggers muddle" to me. Of course, our leaders will have this all thought out by now !!!

Smudge

[Dak Man]

LW50, regail us of what you're suggesting he left out.

[SOSL]

It's "regale" DM not "regail".

It means to entertain lavishly with food and drink. If only everyone could do that with all their so-called enemies!

Rgds SOS

[dctyke]

If we arm the FSA there will be somebody regaling......recent past experiance has shown some 'freedom fighters' will head from bank to bank, museum to museum etc.

[SADDLER]

I agree with many of the posters, that we should not be involved in this adventure which will only arm our future enemies.
Our only hope is if the Russians step in and say stop, or else.

[glad rag]

NBC/WSJ poll: Americans oppose intervention in Syria - First Read (http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/06/11/18905791-nbcwsj-poll-americans-oppose-intervention-in-syria?lite)

[Dak Man]

SOS, thanks for clarifying, my response has 3 fs in it.

[Heathrow Harry]

see the Americans are leaving their F-16's and Patriots in Jordan "just in case"

[Eclectic]

Rebel/Sunni with MANPAD

eHqC-A1BVn8

After the fall of Ghaddafi arms flooded out of Libya and were used by rebels as diversely located as Mali and Sinai.
In Syria the Rebels have captured these MANPADs when they have overrun government bases. What is to prevent these weapons being smuggled out of Syria into the West to be used at a civil airport near you?
And if we provide the extra MANPADs and ATGMs the Rebels are asking for doesn't that just increase the probability of weapons being smuggled out? An ATGM could make a mess of a high value city centre building.

[Rosevidney1]

I never thought I'd find myself agreeing with a Russian leader instead of our own, and I am increasingly depressed with the actions of the leadership of our traditional friends. It appears that we could well walking into a total disaster. Ronnie Reagan's oft quoted remark is particularly apt " Don't just do something, stand there!"

[NutLoose]

Lets face it, if it wasn't for western and eastern greed and the fact we armed them all in the first place they would still be riding around on camels waving swords, and they'd all be armed equally.

To arm any side is sheer lunacy, as for Chemical Weapons, didn't seem to bother the west when Saddam was killing the Kurds with them, but then he was delivering the oil.

We will never learn, we can put our noses in other people's wars and arm them whist at the same time stripping our military of their assets.

In a strange way i wish the Cold War would come back, because there were checks and balances, the Americans would not have dared invade any countries in the Middle East as they knew that it could trigger a Third World War, worked both ways...sadly that check has gone.

[ORAC]

So did Russia deliver those S-300/SA-10 to Syria or not?

Jerusalem Post: IDF not commenting on report Israel attacked Syrian airport (http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/IDF-not-commenting-on-report-Israel-attacked-Syrian-airport-316796)

The IDF was not commenting on a report on a Syrian TV station associated with the rebel forces that Israel attacked on Sunday night the military airbase Al-Miza, West of Damascus, Israel Radio reported. The report noted that a rebel organization had taken responsibility for the attack after the explosion to took place on Sunday night.

The TV station reported that Israel bombed advanced weapons and radar systems that were recently brought to the airport, according to Israel Radio.

Eye witnesses said that the explosions were large and that neither the Assad regime nor the rebels had the capability to create explosions of such a magnitude.

[dead_pan]

I wonder how much of this talk is being driven by the House of Saud and the Qataris? No doubt they are increasingly worried about being humiliated by Assad - he clearly has the upper hand, courtesy of Hezbollah.

[Ronald Reagan]

If the reports this morning are accurate then 4,000 Iranian Revolutionary Guards are on their way to Syria to help support Assad. Its a weird world when I look on such people as being the ''good guys''. But compared to the other side they may almost be a bunch of caring liberals!

The earlier post about the Cold War was a good one. Maybe soon China will offer a balance to the US. With Russia and India thrown into the equation things get even more complicated.

[Eclectic]

Syria is a multiple proxy war.
Between Sunni (Saudi & Qatar) and Shia (Iran)
Between America/UK/France and Russia.
Between Israel and Hezbollah/ Iran.
Between Jihadists/Salafists and moderate Islam.
Between Qatar and Russia for European gas supplies.
+probably more!
Plus the two big regional powers (Turkey and Israel) are flexing their muscles to show how important they are. And to choose the future shape of a neighbour country.
Plus the Kurds are trying to build a greater Kurdistan nation.

Then there is the co-operation between the security services of Russia, NATO and Israel to try and control extremist Islamic terrorists, chemical weapons and MANPADs.

[AtomKraft]

Rebels-One, tank crew- Zero.

These things really burn.:uhoh:

LiveLeak.com - Syria - Tank "ultrakilled" in Darayya.

[Ronald Reagan]

G8 summit begins: Vladimir Putin accuses David Cameron of betraying humanitarian values by supporting Syrian rebels - UK Politics - UK - The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/g8-summit-begins-vladimir-putin-accuses-david-cameron-of-betraying-humanitarian-values-by-supporting-syrian-rebels-8661048.html)

[Ronald Reagan]

Iran to send 4,000 troops to aid President Assad forces in Syria - Middle East - World - The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-to-send-4000-troops-to-aid-president-assad-forces-in-syria-8660358.html)

[Eclectic]

There are already 8,000 Saudis fighting in Syria on the side of the rebels.
70 went back to Saudi recently in body bags. Including 4 women!

Bodies of 70 Saudi fighters return from Syria: Report - Tehran Times (http://tehrantimes.com/world/108588-bodies-of-70-saudi-fighters-return-from-syria-report)

[Rosevidney1]

There are now Islamists from 42 countries involved - including the UK. What happens when they return to this country? Oh, we already know the answer to that, don't we?

[racedo]

Oh, we already know the answer to that, don't we?

They get retrained and lined up for another UK Govt gig.

[Ronald Reagan]

PressTV - UK planned war on Syria before unrest began: French ex-foreign minister (http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/06/16/309276/uk-planned-war-on-syria-before-unrest/)

[500N]

Pretty good hit on that Tank.

Was that just an RPG or something a bit more potent ?

[AtomKraft]

It was an RPG allegedly. RPG-29 maybe?

Russki anyway....

I expect that was the bag charges for the main ammo cooking off. :uhoh:

[dead_pan]

The crewman who got out the back looked 'well done' to me.

[500N]

Yes, I wouldn't have liked to have been inside.

Powder burns fast and furious once lit.

[Melchett01]

If the situation in Syria was that much of an issue it required active and aggressive intervention at the state level, then as it's their backyard, I would expect the neighbouring Middle Eastern states would have got invovled from the outset. As it is, they have sort of stumbled and bimbled into it by accident and even now are doing little more than tinkering on the edges. That says something about how much of an issue the rest of the Middle East viewed the Syrian situation, that is of course until western liberal values were imposed on CNN footage and there was outrage in Islington.

But for all their liberal values, I would just ask the politicians to answer one question: how did we, UK plc, feel when it transpired that the Libyans were arming the IRA? Because this is a carbon copy - we are seeking to arm a section of society in another country because we believe they are right, whilst the sitting government believes that very same section of society to be terrorists.

Dress it up however you like, but that is what is happening and it goes to demonstrate how two faced, cynical and fickle politicians can be when required.

[ORAC]

Sunni and Shia jihad in Syria (http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3772/sunni_and_shia_jihad_in_syria)

Italian DM: Will Syria Boil Over Into Regional Conflict? (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130616/DEFREG01/306160004/Italian-DM-Will-Syria-Boil-Over-Into-Regional-Conflict-)

The Shi'ite crescent holds its ground (http://www.investigativeproject.org/4045/the-shiite-crescent-holds-its-ground)

[dctyke]

I wonder what would Cameron say if Assad invited Russian 'peace keeping' troops in. That would certainly put an end to any no flying zone. Never ever seen pp community mainly support the Russian stance against the 'good guys' :hmm:

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Are we totally sure that we are backing the right side?

I have a number of Syrian friends, who are all Sunnis. Without exception they all support the govenment forces and are horrified about the atrocities being performed by the rebels in the name of Islam. One of the guys knew personally the conscript who was 'eaten' on camera.

They agree that Assad isnt the best example of leadership in many respects, but he kept Syria reasonably stable, multi-ethnic and allowed all forms of religion.

One of my mates has expressed his views on Facebook and has had several death threats if he ever goes back to Syria.

This is a horrendous war in every respect, but arming bands of extremist thugs doesnt feel the right solution to me. As has been said many times before, we have no real idea of the identity of the end users of the weaponry.

[Eclectic]

The rebels, in a step change of capability, are starting to use the 1,000 AT-5 Konkurs missiles supplied to them by Saudi Arabia. These have a range of 4Km and can take out a T72.

iCLnsY2t780

There are videos of the rebels using them to do precisely this.

Telegraph article: Syrian rebels get first heavy weapons on the front line of Aleppo - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10131063/Syrian-rebels-get-first-heavy-weapons-on-the-front-line-of-Aleppo.html)

QRYgJdv4-2E

The continued use of ATGMs on this scale will gradually take armour out of the equation in the conflict.

Also Iraqi Shiite militias are now poring in on the side of the rebels. Making the conflict even more sectarian.

[Rosevidney1]

The Telegraph reckons that there are now 700 British Moslems in Syria fighting Jihad. With luck they will forget to return to our shores.

[nomorehelosforme]

The Telegraph reckons that there are now 700 British Moslems in Syria fighting Jihad. With luck they will forget to return to our shores.

Yes leave them there!

[Heathrow Harry]

lot cheaper than sending the Army I guess... they even pay their own way there...........

[racedo]

lot cheaper than sending the Army I guess... they even pay their own way there...........

And no requirement to repatriate them.

[Eclectic]

Regime air superiority not absolute.

LeRjAHS7tFk

[downsizer]

^^ That's quite an old event....

[Eclectic]

Two from this morning:
knLbHR8dAyI

a6JP_Hm0uSo

[AtomKraft]

Good shootin'! :ok:

[Ronald Reagan]

Very sad loss of the crews. Bunch of damn terrorists.

[Milo Minderbinder]

"there are now 700 British Moslems in Syria fighting Jihad"

No, there are "now 700 British Moslems in Syria learning and perfecting Jihad" prior to returning the skills to the UK.....

[downsizer]

Two from this morning:




They may be dated this morning but I'm pretty certain they are recycled older videos pumped out by "FSA" propagandists. I've been watching videos from this conflict closely for some time and I'm certain I've seen both of those a while ago, just trying to pin down when.

Interestingly the number of videod attempted shoot down of helos has plummeted of late. Which could mean a few things, either Assad is running out of crews or Helos OR he is preserving what he has due to the threat level. Also there has been a marked increase in FW activity and strikes....

[NutLoose]

I hope they all got their passports stamped when they arrived so they can be refused re entry.... Ahhhh wishfull thoughts..

Poor buggers in those Helicopters, don't forget although war some little kid somewhere will be crying because daddy didn't come home tonight.

[Ronald Reagan]

At least 600 Russians and Europeans fighting alongside Syrian opposition ? Putin ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/russians-europeans-putin-syria-063/)

[flyhardmo]

The UN is not convinced of Chemical weapons use by Assad. Russia is not convinced.

No proof who used chemical weapons: UN (http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/2013/06/22/07/11/no-proof-who-used-chemical-weapons-un)

Maybe by keeping the war going and supporting the 'rebels', it's the only way Britain can get rid of their home grown extremists without the racist, anti- freedom tag. don't worry those terrorists we support now will find their way back to the west but now with proper training.:ugh:

I think the US is jumping on the in to justify this.
US training Syrian rebels 'for months' (http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/2013/06/22/13/43/us-training-syrian-rebels-for-months)

[VinRouge]

Sick of hearing about this allu snackbar character.

In all seriousness, the opposition can go to hell. Anyone who supports or cosies up to AlQ can especially go to hell.Lets not forget the attrocities they (AlQ) commited in Iraq, executions using hand drills, beheaddings, use of chlorine gas against school kids, this and a whole host of other frankly barbaric acts. Didnt one of them get video'ed eating the organs of another human being recently?

I dont buy that just Assad has been using chemical weapons and I dont buy that the "freedom fighters" havent been commiting attrocities to get media attention for their "cause".

This is a civil war fought on the grounds of ethnc cleansing. By all means, protect the innocent who have been caught between the crossfire, but lets not get into a regional proxy war where there can be no winners.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Problem is, you can't protect the innocents when the crossfire is still going on. At the root of this is not a desire to get involved on either side per se, but the problem of whether involvement will stop said crossfire. My take is that any foreign intervention will just get both sides shooting at you, and the innocents will still get killed.

As perhaps with many civil wars, the only options for the innocents are to flee the warzone or to cease being innocents and choose sides.

[Ronald Reagan]

Lavrov slams US, UN for undermining Geneva peace talks on Syria ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/lavrov-syria-geneva-us-084/)

I would go as far as saying Assad is almost a saint compared to most of the rebels!

[VinRouge]

Rather than a complete no fly zone, perhaps the un, Russians, Chinese and west could support a safe zone on a borderland of Syria that could be policed to keep both Syrian opposing sides out? This would allow said civil war to continue, but kept contained from the rest of the populace who Desire a war free, pitiful existence? It would need an international police force and the ability to use lethal force to ensure its not used as a smuggling route for weaponry into the country.


There are issues with soverignity etc and where you use as safe zone, but surely Assad and the rebels, if they have an ounce of humanity, could support such a proposal whilst they go at each other hammer and tongues?

[Rosevidney1]

Remember the Abu Nidal Organisation some decades ago? Their stated aim was 'the destruction of Israel and the uprising of the Islamic world in total revolution'. Not much has changed since, has it? If the UK government does send arms to the rebels I will renounce my citizenship.

[smujsmith]

I was just watching Billy Hague on TV. I can't remember the last pollie who was so enthusiastic to "get involved" and seemingly so frustrated by public opinion. My concern is that "public opinion" is what puts him in his job. Now, and I know I may be being naive, why do we have to go through the b@llocks of this kidology ? For some reason, Cameron, Hague and no doubt other, like minded, weapons manufacturers, are already thinking of their increasing bank balances and rubbing their mitts together. So, announce it and take your chance with the plebs. But that would require a bit of honesty, not a term oft bandied about at the palace of Wasteminster.

Smudge

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Judging by Hague's apparent glee in arming the terrorists, I am sure he will give a heroes welcome back to the 700 UK radicals who have joined the Jihadists. Perhaps he has already prioritised that they will get the weapons first!

I have always been a ardent Conservative supporter, but this current bunch are totally beyond contempt. As untrustworthy and slimy as Blair and Brown.

Where is the conclusive proof that Assad has used chemical weapons, and not the Jihadists?

We have entered a dark time with a very uncertain final outcome for the Middle East and Europe. There will be many more aircraft blown out of the sky, other than Syrian.

[spooky3]

Syria: 'Friends' Agree Urgent Rebel Support (http://news.sky.com/story/1107015/syria-friends-agree-urgent-rebel-support)

[Eclectic]

There is a theory that the West not supplying weapons has radicalised the conflict.
For two years the FSA has been starved of everything they need. Meanwhile the extremist nutters of al-Nusra have been amply supplied by Saudi Arabia & the Gulf States. So very many troops on the ground switched from FSA to al-Nusra.

What is for sure is that the biggest problem for the West coming out of Syria has been the huge growth in al-Nusra. Their being equipped with modern weapons and receiving lots of training and military experience. And their further radicalisation of large numbers of young men from all over the world, including from the UK. Syria is now a breeding ground for the very worst kind of islamic terrorist nutter. Once the Syria conflict is over they will turn their resources against the West.

Hopefully Mr Jones from Hereford will prevent the British ones from returning home.

[smujsmith]

Eclectic,

Re "Mr Jones from Hereford". I'm with you on that, but it would require a little "prior planning and previous communication", something our current Wasteminster jokers seem bereft of. Seriously, Hagues incessant ranting and, seeming, ignorance of public opinion does little to endear him or his chums to my sympathies.

Smudge

[racedo]

Hague was out of his depth as a snotty teenager at the tory party conference all those years ago...............nothing in history since has altered that fact.

[NutLoose]

And all that goes back to never having had a proper job, MP's shouldn't be allowed to stand until they have had 10 years work experience in the real world, it might stop all these stupid laws we get and the ever increasing paperwork.

[Eclectic]

The social media is the only way to follow events inside Syria. Our old fashioned mainstream media are doing a bad job. They don't report most stuff and when they do they are well behind events on the ground.

There is a blogger who has created a meta resource of all the social media he can find. This is an amazingly rich, possibly definitive, source of events in Syria in near real time.

If anyone is interested here it is: http://brown-moses.********.ie/2012/06/syrian-channel-listings.html

Oops! The Pprune website software is censoring the url!!!!
Look up Brown Moses Blog on Google. Then look at Other Links in the right hand column and click Syrian "Youtube Channel Listings".

[Lonewolf_50]

LW50, regail us of what you're suggesting he left out.
Dak, when you understand that in the clip presented he was speaking politically, I can assure you that he edited his tale very carefully to present a particular story. That is what smart people (and Wesley Clarke is quite bright) do when they operate in the political arena. What is put out by pols and "the truth" often have a delta between them. :p Not just an issue with W Clarke.

You will also note, hopefully, that there was a considerable time lag between what he related and his speaking about it in public. Years, in fact.

Think, Dak. Why do you suppose that was?

Beyond that, I know quite a few folks who worked in the Pentagon around the time between 9-11 and the serious Op Plan prep for Operation Iraqi Freedom.

Their take is similar but different to his version of what went down within the Pentagon: the contingency plan for going back to war in Iraq (I was in a CPX or two that modeled it, early-mid 90's) which had been prepped and revised frequently for about a decade, was move to "make an op plan." Why? Because it takes for freakin' ever to put a plan that big together and then get it blessed. :mad::mad:
Now, why did the J3/J5 folks have to do that? Someone wanted the option to activate the contingency plan. In that regard, what W Clarke was narrating was very, very old news. Ancient, actually.

For me, at the time, it was to note that the first iteration of the con plan to op plan to go forward got General Shinseki set aside, because he told the truth to politicians in power. That's what he got for doing his job. :mad::mad:

Anyway, you are free to believe whatever you want to believe, and with your previously demonstrated bias, I am sure you will. Look up the term "confirmation bias" and I think you'll understand what I mean.

[Dak Man]

Hi LW50, thanks for the response, although I have no idea how you conclude bias from ramblings (opionionated or otherwise) on a cyber forum. Sometimes it's good to play good cop and bad cop in order to strike a balanced opinion.

[Lonewolf_50]

But for all their liberal values, I would just ask the politicians to answer one question: how did we, UK plc, feel when it transpired that the Libyans were arming the IRA? Because this is a carbon copy - we are seeking to arm a section of society in another country because we believe they are right, whilst the sitting government believes that very same section of society to be terrorists.
Melchett01: good point

Also Iraqi Shiite militias are now poring in on the side of the rebels. Making the conflict even more sectarian.
The trick is to find them, target them, and kill them. Likewise with the Sunni militias coming in to support the Al N faction.
Problem is, you can't protect the innocents when the crossfire is still going on. At the root of this is not a desire to get involved on either side per se, but the problem of whether involvement will stop said crossfire. My take is that any foreign intervention will just get both sides shooting at you, and the innocents will still get killed.
Fox 3, well said. :ok:
As perhaps with many civil wars, the only options for the innocents are to flee the warzone or to cease being innocents and choose sides.
Yes. That's an option.

EDIT:
Vlad says it makes no sense to arm terroristic Islamists
At least 600 Russians and Europeans fighting alongside Syrian opposition ? Putin ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/russians-europeans-putin-syria-063/)

I mostly agree with him, but there's one small bit he's not mentioning.

This whole dick measuring contest has to do with regional strategy, which means Iran. The US did Iran a huge favor by taking out Saddam. So, now that has to be corrected for. Looked at through that lens, a few hundred thousand dead Arabs of various sorts in the middle east doesn't matter, does it? See 8 years of war between Iran and Iran for an interesting parallel on what price is deemed suitable to give Iran the mickey.

[ORAC]

Dozens dead as Syrian war spreads to Sidon in Lebanon (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/dozens-dead-as-syrian-war-spreads-to-sidon-in-lebanon-8672131.html)

Snipers out on the streets as Lebanese army scours city for anti-Hezbollah cleric

[Lonewolf_50]

The Washington Post reported this morning that the Russians are pulling what few of their citizens remain in Syria, at Tartus, out.

Their task force will, when needed, make port calls in Cyprus. (I imagine elsewhere as well, depending upon political things ... )

The article implied that this isn't a sudden move, but a culmination of slowly removing some 30,000 Russian citizens from Syria over the last year or so.

It also makes me wonder: removing a potential source of friction between UN/NATO and Russia should our pols get a bit more froggy? :confused:

Not sure what to make of this.

[downsizer]

Apparantly there were only 4 permanent servicemen at Tartus anyway....

[TEEEJ]

Interesting report, Lonewolf.

The report has appeared in the Russian media.

All personnel withdrawn from Russian navy base in Syria - diplomat

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister says all personnel had been evacuated from the navy resupply base in Tartus, Syria, adding that not a single Russian military serviceman remained in the country.

Mikhail Bogdanov made the announcement in an interview with the Al-Hayat newspaper. “Presently, the Russian Defense Ministry has not a single person stationed in Syria. The base does not have any strategic military importance,” the newspaper quoted the Russian official as saying.

Russian media have verified the statement and the business daily Vedomosti quoted an unnamed source in the Defense Ministry as saying that this was true as all military and civilian personnel had been evacuated from the Tartus base and there were no Russian military instructors working with the Syrian military forces. The source added that the withdrawal was prompted not only by the increased risks caused by the ongoing military conflict, but also by the fact that in the current conditions any incident involving Russian servicemen would likely have some unfavorable reaction from the international community.

All personnel withdrawn from Russian navy base in Syria - diplomat ? RT Russian politics (http://rt.com/politics/navy-diplomat-syria-base-251/)

The Black Sea Fleet Amur Class Repair Ship PM-138 is still hove to at Tartus. She arrived there during late April 2013. PM-138 regularly sends a Morse weather message. I just checked the 18Z transmission on 8345 Kilohertz. The weather report contains a lat long, course and speed.

8345 RCV DE RBIZ 27181 99349 10358 22200 @1813Z

34.9N 35.8E Hove to Tartus, Syria

34.9N 35.8E - Google Maps (http://goo.gl/maps/AlddA)

Image of PM-138 on her way to Tartus to replace Amur Class (PM-56)

PM-138 Russian Floating Workshop Passing Through Bosphorus | (http://turkishnavy.net/2013/04/27/pm-138-russian-floating-workshop-passing-through-bosphorus/)

The following website is excellent for keeping track of Russian Navy movements through the Turkish Straits.

Russian Warship Movements Through Turkish Straits (Part 15) | (http://turkishnavy.net/2013/06/20/russian-warship-movements-through-turkish-straits-part-15/)

[Lonewolf_50]

Teej, thanks.

The Russian task force remaining in the Med is the more important consideration, and I don't think it's going anywhere any time soon.

[TEEEJ]

No problem, Lonewolf.

The Admiral Kuznetsov Carrier Group is scheduled to make a return to the Mediterranean by the end of 2013. The Russians are also seeking use of a Cypriot air base and port facilities.

Financially strapped Cyprus is looking at allowing Russian military aircraft to use an airbase in Paphos, the country's defense minister said this weekend.

Cypriot Defense Minister Fotis Fotiu told the Nicosia daily Fileleftheros the country was "studying the possibility of providing in certain cases" the use of the Andreas Papandreou Air Force Base for Russian military aircraft.

He also indicated allowing Russian warships to use the port of Limassol was under consideration, less than two weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the restoration of a permanent presence for the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean.

Cyprus considering Russian use of Limassol port, Paphos airbase - UPI.com (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2013/06/25/Cyprus-considering-Russian-military-use-of-airbase-port-facilities/UPI-23571372133220/)

The Admiral Kuznetsov heavy aircraft carrier will be ready to act as part of a Russian naval group in the Mediterranean by the end of 2013, Navy Commander Adm. Viktor Chirkov said.

"The cruiser will complete its planned maintenance at the end of the year. It is expected to put out and perform a number of missions in an offshore oceanic zone as part of a group.

Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier to start long-range mission in Mediterranean in late 2013 | Russia Beyond The Headlines (http://rbth.ru/news/2013/06/01/admiral_kuznetsov_aircraft_carrier_to_start_long-range_mission_in_medite_26615.html)

[VinRouge]

Another day, another atrocity...

Catholic Priest 'Beheaded by Al-Qaida Fighters' in Northern Syria - IBTimes UK (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/485091/20130701/syria-catholic-priest-beheaded-francois-murad.htm)

[Robert Cooper]

During a congressional hearing on Syria’s religious minorities on Tuesday last week, testimony came out that Syrians are asking why the Unites States is supporting the Islamic extremists who want to turn Syria into an Islamic state.
In an opening statement at Tuesday's hearing, Chairman Smith said statistics show "that Christians are even more fearful for their lives and safety than other segments of the Syrian population."
Nina Shea, director of the Hudson Institute's Center for Religious Freedom, testified that Islamic insurgents are targeting Christians for "ethno-religious cleansing."
Christian Solidarity International CEO Dr. John Eibner, recently in Syria and who also testified at the hearing, said the United States should work with Russia to negotiate a peace rather than help Sunni Muslims turn the country into an Islamic state.
Interesting concept there, work with the Russians to get a solution, but I doubt if Obama would go for that.

Bob C