Here it comes: Syria

[Melchett01]

The US government is trying to increase public support, so they are going to declassify intelligence that supports their case.

Let's hope it's better than Curveball's was back in 2002/03 then.

[Melchett01]

No it doesn't.

It suggests the effects are illegal i.e run counter to the Law of Armed Conflict and various Humanitarian Laws (which the Syrians may or may not be signatories to).

SCUDs per se are not illegal, what you do with them might be. Those same effects could be produced by an other heavy artillery, armour or air assets not just SCUDs. If you want to declare SCUDs illegal, then there's a whole lot of other military assets and capabilities in the line before them to be declared illegal at the same time.

[Lonewolf_50]

Eclectic:
Having had to become conversant in the rules of war, aka LOAC, I don't give two figs what the cnuts at Amnesty International think or pontificate about. The use of a conventional weapon is not inherently illegal.

Should a government bomb and rocket its population? I'd say, generally, no. Is it illegal? That's a philosophical question. The "crimes against humanity" card is selectively played, so I find it a dishonest platform from where to preach. If Assad is gassing his own population, however, that charge may stick if it can be shown that it was his faction that did such things.

Once a civil war is underway, particularly a civil war where foreign powers are funding, feeding and arming those fighting a given government, your simple black and white interpretation is out the window.

I am not on side with Assad, I think he's a despot.

Problem is, he's the official and recognized government of Syria still. At the moment, he is dealing with an armed insurrection (from his point of view) that is funded and supported by foreign powers. It isn't as simple as you are trying to paint it. Also ...

Opinion does not equal fact, Eclectic.

Let that concept soak in for a moment, OK? ;)

EDIT2: Melchett01, thanks, I was editing as you were posting, I agree with your point.

[Lonewolf_50]

Yugoslavia, part three.

Consider what it cost the people in Yugoslavia to become the six smaller nation states they are now.

Hint: it's red.

1. No free pass for Syria.
2. Who is going to put together a Dayton agreement that will get all parties in Syria to agree to the lines on the ground that you suggest? Like in Yugoslavia, there is a lot of mixing "on the ground" between groups. Well, there was before this civil war started.
3. Who besides you cares if the Sunni and Salafist sector is not adjacent to Israel? What Israel cares about probably doesn't matter to whatever parties would need to form to craft an agreement like the one in Dayton.

How many need to die before various parties are desperate enough to get involved in such a partition?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Arab League have the money, men and equipment to take any action they see fit.

I don't see why the f#ck we are getting involved at all.

[ORAC]

Eclectic, see here. Syria, shattered (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-will-syria-shatter/2013/08/14/0ff9fcd6-043f-11e3-9259-e2aafe5a5f84_story.html)

As to the question of why Assad and the military would use chemicals. They had too. I've done a lot of research, I haven't kept the links, but it goes something like this.

The Syrian army has a top echelon of staff and units who are Alawite and control the major weapons such as chemical, aircraft etc; the bulk of the foot soldiers were Sunni.

Since the civil war started the army has had mass defections and, on the ground, massive casualties plus defections. Think our losses in Afghanistan but a hundredfold. They are now in the position where they hold there own sliver of Syria (see my link above), though even there they are under attack. Outside that area they hold the towns and the roads, but little outside.

Now, when it comes to rebel held towns and suburbs in those areas they don't have, or can't afford to lose, the ground troops to go into clear them. So they are increasingly relying on artillery and chemical weapons to try and crush them.

Not sure where this will end, but it will be messy.

Strategically, at the end of WWI the ME was a mess as the remnants of the Ottoman empire disintegrated. The winners deliberately divided the area up so that the new nations had a mix of the different religions, tribes, ethnic types etc and a ruling class from a minority to ensure some sort of consensus was required to govern. They'd been doing the whole "divide and conquer" thing for centuries, and it's lasted a 100 years - which isn't bad.

It's now all falling apart. The options are to try and stick it together again; try and engineer another solution which will last 100 years; or sit back and watch the carnage.

There are, as they say, no easy choices (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/michael-gerson-a-complex-path-to-ending-syrias-war/2013/08/26/c7173532-0e7b-11e3-bdf6-e4fc677d94a1_story.html).

Best of luck whoever tries.

[langleybaston]

Somebody enlighten a simple ex-Met. Man please.

Just why should we bother to intervene, given that we don't/ haven't done so in other countries similarly self-destructing?

What is our strategic interest, other than remaining the poodle at the foot of the USA bed?

Is it just that Obama shot his mouth off over red lines and now has to put his missiles where his mouth is?

By my reckoning my entire Income Tax contributions over a lifetime will perhaps buy one Tomahawk and its share of the launch platform.

My understanding is that life for the Syrian "on the Clapham omnibus/ donkey" was rather better three years ago than it is now.

But what has it got to do with me, fed up as I am with post-colonial adventurism and the world daily hating us more and more?

Perhaps it would be best to ignore the shouting, shooting and looting and let them sort themselves out in due course, at which time one side or the other emerges from the rubble terminally weakened and insignificant.

[Hangarshuffle]

I don't think so. I don't think the House of Commons can call on or order the PM not to commit UK forces to action. Simply debate. Stand to be corrected. He hasn't got the backing of the British public, I've seen several polls now that seem to indicate that at least (my opinion only again).
Perhaps he will ask Parliament for backing and the house will divide and vote?
I've just watched the PM walk into No10 Downing Street and was actually imagining him going into an immediate series of briefings -FO, Military, Conservative Seniors and Cabinet.
If he turns to his military advisors which I imagine are the Chiefs of Staff, and asks them "what can I do" what will they advise him? What can they offer him?
What actually will the PM be aiming to do with military action? Is that the first question they will ask him>?

My humble guess each service will offer a limited response solution. RN limited TLAM attack. RAF some sort of air attack and the Army some sort of SF ground attack. All aimed at chemical weapons stockpiles. Or a combined approach. Which on read-back actually will achieve very little in the scheme of things.

I'm very much against any form of further military action and intend to write to my own MP tonight and plead for us not to become involved with this any further. Praying that all our people remain safe and far from harms way.

[Hangarshuffle]

I agree Langley I too only a humble ex ranker and I truly think we are heading towards an utter disaster and a terrible shame and mistake. I am actually ashamed to have a Prime Minister like Cameron. He seems too young, unintelligent, un-travelled, inexperienced...self important.. false.
What is it with this current crop of Parliamentarians? Have they not had enough of it yet? Perhaps if they were to shed their suits and go abroad into these areas and actually see the blood and the tears close up they wouldn't be so keen to order our people to the fight. To witness the craziness of it all.
I actually rarely write or post on Prune - I have little of interest to say, am not particularly intelligent and am more that prepared to simply read other peoples more intelligent thoughts, stories and adventures, but these recent days have driven me mad. I cannot actually believe what I hear coming out of the mouths of the British Foreign Secretary or Prime Minister.
Enough.

[langleybaston]

Thank you!

My wife has forbidden me to mention Syria, apparently I am becoming terminally boring on the subject.

I am a lifetime patriot/ monarchist/ armed forces supporter and hitherto true blue Conservative voter.

Gay marriage was the last straw for me, so I cannot say that this Syria nonsense will make me abstain or vote UKIP, but the posturing just confirms me in my opinion of Cameron and his abject party.

Abstain or UKIP it is.

[TomJoad]

Thank you!

My wife has forbidden me to mention Syria, apparently I am becoming terminally boring on the subject.

I am a lifetime patriot/ monarchist/ armed forces supporter and hitherto true blue Conservative voter.

Gay marriage was the last straw for me, so I cannot say that this Syria nonsense will make me abstain or vote UKIP, but the posturing just confirms me in my opinion of Cameron and his abject party.

Abstain or UKIP it is.

Langley and Hanngarshuffle

I find that I agree with most of your thoughts re any engagement in Syria. Having said that, as to why should we do something, I always feel compelled by the humanitarian call. Pictures and revelations over the recent weeks have been shocking and one cannot help but feel for the ordinary folk in Syria caught up in all of this. I'm not naive though and I know that military action is the bluntest of tools. What to do - in all honesty I do know what is correct course of action. What I would say though, and I am walking on eggshell saying it, your vote after all is your concern, but please please think very careful about UK IP - they are not an honourable party. Please do not take offence, I respect your right to vote and your right to choose, I am just very very wary of UKIP.

[Ronald Reagan]

TomJoad, whats the alternative to UKIP besides not voting?
Tory = warmongers
Labour = warmongers
Lib Dems = not as bad as the above two but lovers of the EU. Plus they were part of the government that conducted military action in Libya. Impossible to vote for any of those three.
So besides BNP and Green, it does not leave much choice besides UKIP!
Besides Nigel Farage seems against any military action in Syria, for that reason alone his party is worth voting for. If Camerloon and Hague do go to war I look forward to seeing the look on their faces when they lose the next election, being voted out due to being the losers that they are.

[smujsmith]

Gentlemen,

It's a bit disturbing to see the subject matter drifting from Syria to UKIP. There's some really good comment on this thread which is a world away from the bellicose posturing and fantasy espoused by our erstwhile, beer swilling (allegedly), Foriegn Secretary. It's also the only place I can now find where a discussion can be had (on Syria), with no preconceived "guilty party". I don't know where this crisis is going, hopefully we will not be involved, but I really (as a UKIP member) don't believe UKIP have a dog in this fight. I just hope the fat git who represents us at the trough will take note of the many E mails he will have received today and vote against any military action, before proof. I know at least 20 of my ex service mates have fired them off to him today.

Smudge

[TomJoad]

TomJoad, whats the alternative to UKIP besides not voting?
Tory = warmongers
Labour = warmongers
Lib Dems = not as bad as the above two but lovers of the EU. Plus they were part of the government that conducted military action in Libya. Impossible to vote for any of those three.
So besides BNP and Green, it does not leave much choice besides UKIP!
Besides Nigel Farage seems against any military action in Syria, for that reason alone his party is worth voting for. If Camerloon and Hague do go to war I look forward to seeing the look on their faces when they lose the next election, being voted out due to being the losers that they are.

Ronald - like I said I don't profess to have the answer, and I am not aligned to any party; no lover of either tory or labour. Yes abstain or accept that you are not voting on a single issue and petition the hell out of your MP. I don't think Cameron will push us down that path, and I don't think Labour would go for it either - the public mood in the country certainly wont. I may be proved wrong - hope not. I don't know maybe I have UKIP wrong but I think we have seen the face of that type of party before and they are not what I want to represent Britain.

[spooky3]

cameron-recalls-1-1-522x293_zpsf4d6c578.jpg Photo by egnsean | Photobucket (http://s1070.photobucket.com/user/egnsean/media/cameron-recalls-1-1-522x293_zpsf4d6c578.jpg.html?sort=3&o=2)




Just the look on this morons face in the above link is enough to make anyone vote UKIP, i know i will!

[MPN11]

Eye Bleach, please.

Can you wear those clothes and be taken seriously? Apparently so!
Can you vote for anyone with a beard? If you are a LibDem or Green!

By their clothes shall ye know them.

[TEEEJ]

RAF Coningsby Typhoon jets training delayed by Syrian crisis

The 29 (Reserve) Squadron has delayed routine, annual exercises that usually take place in Akrotiri, Cyprus.

RAF Coningsby Typhoon jets training delayed by Syrian crisis - Local - Boston Standard (http://www.bostonstandard.co.uk/news/local/raf-coningsby-typhoon-jets-training-delayed-by-syrian-crisis-1-5429093)

[Ronald Reagan]

Eclectic, not much difference between Liebour and Tory:-

Liebour = Afghanistan and Iraq
Tory = Libya and possibly Syria.

The last two are far smaller in terms of UK military forces deployed but it does not make them any less wrong. Sadly the Lib Dems were part of the government that carried out the attack upon Libya.

I just saw on the news Cameron foaming at the mouth over war, baby brother Milliband seems keen so far, Clegg also seems keen.

So for anyone who is opposed to these pointless little interventions there is not choice other than UKIP.

This is an important issue, most of us seem against UK intervention in Syria, a strong message has to be sent to the political elite of the three old parties that we the people are sick and tired of what they are doing. Supporting a new party is likely the best way to go, probably the only way to go.

[MPN11]

I say no more ...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1433507117014&set=a.1356029900132.2046656.1213005570&type=3&theater

[air pig]

Lets get back to the original point and away from 'party' politics and ask the questions:

1. What are the rules and legality of action/s
2. What are the briefings given to all party leaders under Privy council rules.
3. How solid is the intel, remember the so called intel prior to GW II, lies and more lies given as the truth, remember the late Dr David Kelly.
4. What is the end game and exit strategy.
5. What is the cost likely to be both human and financial.
6. Tell the Arab states that this is their problem and not ours, they have the money and resources.
7. Who secures any remaining CW.
8. Assad would be a fool not to disperse his weapons and delivery systems.

I am of the opinion that the UK needs to stay far away from this and only support Jordan and Turkey dealing with the refugees. If Assad and his regime are severely hit by western forces, how will that play in the Arab and wider world. If as a 'wounded animal' he attacks Tel Aviv with Scud mounted CW, will we support the inevitable strike back with nuclear weapons by the Israeli's.

This is, as I have said, that we need to stay away and not pander to politicians sense of importance and inflated moral outrage. They have done nothing about the North Koreans, the rampant kleptocracy's and murderous failed states in Sub Saharan Africa, so why start with Syria.

CW is an abomination, but so is the hacking off of arms legs and mass rape of men women and children in Africa, but we do nothing about that and many more have been killed and injured there than in Syria. I suspect even speaking out on this would be declared as 'racist' by the so called liberal elite and soft and indeed poor politicians we have today. None are statesmen/women that measure up to some we have seen in the past.

[MPN11]

Too thoughtful for my current state, air pig, but strongly agree on first looks at points 4 and 6.

I have no time for the entirety of Arabism, but had hoped this might have been one of those occasions when they might have got off their gold-plated chairs and done something constructive for their brethren.

Wrong sort of Islam?

[smujsmith]

Air pig,

Good points, well made. We seem to be following a path last trodden in 2003, when spin and rumour supplanted real intelligence, and look what we ended up with. As you say, many are the atrocities committed in Africa etc, where our pollies care not a jot. I have to say, if I believed that anything that we are about to witness will stop further atrocities in Syria, I would support it. I suspect its more "hair shirt" politics than an honest attempt to control CW. I'm also still struggling to understand how the killing that will result from this action, will be done with no evidence of guilt. What would the pollies do if the UN announced that opposition forces had carried out the attack. As a country, we have been lied into war in the recent past, I'm sure if they get involved in Syria, they should produce the evidence before a bomb is dropped.

Smudge

[Ronald Reagan]

Hans Blix: U.S. has ?poor excuse? for Syria incursion now - Salon.com (http://www.salon.com/2013/08/27/hans_blix_u_s_has_poor_excuse_for_syria_incursion_now/)

Hans Blix Warns Obama 'US Is Not World Police' As Syria Action Looms (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/08/27/hans-blix-syria-world-police_n_3823362.html)

[Uncle Ginsters]

This thread reminds me of the John Stuart-Mill quote learned some years ago:

“War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things, the decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth a war, is much worse. When a people are used as mere human instruments for firing cannon or thrusting bayonets, in the service and for the selfish purposes of a master, such war degrades a people. A war to protect other human beings against tyrannical injustice; a war to give victory to their own ideas of right and good, and which is their own war, carried on for an honest purpose by their free choice, — is often the means of their regeneration. A man who has nothing which he is willing to fight for, nothing which he cares more about than he does about his personal safety, is a miserable creature who has no chance of being free, unless made and kept so by the exertions of better men than himself.”

[air pig]

It seems that the IDF had several overflights of Lebanon today.
Gathering target data for Uncle Sam?

Probably just for their own conventional and nuclear targeting data uploads, anyway what are sources for your supposition of IASDF overflights.

I've written to my MP, even though she is a labour front bencher asking her to vote against the idea of a strike, so will follow orders. As below via the They work for you website:

Dear Maria Eagle,

With regard to the recall of Parliament to discus the situation in
Syria. I would request that you vote against military intervention on
the following grounds:-
1. The UN inspectors have not had time to finish their inspection let
alone analyse their specimens, data or evidence, the last time this
happened was before the start of GW II and the very suspicious death of
Dr David Kelly. What did he know and would have revealed?
2. What is the exit strategy?
3. How robust is the intelligence, I remember the former leader of your
party giving a 45 minute warning in the House before GWII and at the
Security Council by Colin Powell using UK data
4. Most importantly we do not know who deployed the chemicals thought
to be Sarin, until we have the evidence how can we launch an attack
5. If the Assad regime is attack and hit back by targeting Tel Aviv
with CW armed weapons, would you support the Israeli government, which
they surely would retaliate with nuclear weapons.

I reiterate, that you should vote against action even defying a party
'whip' as a matter of conscience.

Yours sincerely,

Air pig.

Got try and at least register a protest against this foolishness, even with the cynical view it will be ignored and be dismissed as both a closet racist and 'little Englander'

[langleybaston]

quote: UKIP is the grumpy old men's party.

I am sorry I introduced politics, it didn't help here

BUT I AM INDEED A GRUMPY OLD MAN so you might say "home at last!"

When the Arabs and also sensible nation states like Switzerland decide to have a pop at Assad I will begin to feel that I am wrong in my opinions.

Until then I am vehemently opposed to action against the legal Syrian murderous government and their backers.

[West Coast]

Only have to clear corridors and maintain them, don't have to take out all the kit.

[Lonewolf_50]

air pig:

I do not agree with your alarmism in re the Israelis necessarily using nukes.

I seriuosly doubt that their response to any Syrian attack would be other than conventional.

They have ample conventional means to hand, and do not need to invite the charge of over reaction that would make them the bad guy and play right into the hands of various Iranian and Arab world parties who seek an excuse to go after them, politically or otherwise.

If Assad launches a strike on Israel (I am not sure why he would) he knows full well that they'll whack him smartly at the very least.

[Robert Cooper]

Bombing Assad for using chemical weapons risks triggering a bloody escalation. If the regime digs in and uses chemical weapons again, or launches retaliatory attacks against the U.S. and its allies in the region, Obama will come under fierce pressure to respond more forcefully, increasing the chances of full-scale war.

Russia and Iran could up the ante, too, by backing Assad more powerfully in response.

We shouldn’t forget that the last time the United Nations investigated claims of chemical weapons use in Syria, its inspectors concluded that it was the rebels and not Assad’s forces who were likely behind the sarin gas attack.

We need to tread carefully here!

Bob C

[air pig]

air pig:

I do not agree with your alarmism in re the Israelis necessarily using nukes.

I seriuosly doubt that their response to any Syrian attack would be other than conventional.

They have ample conventional means to hand, and do not need to invite the charge of over reaction that would make them the bad guy and play right into the hands of various Iranian and Arab world parties who seek an excuse to go after them, politically or otherwise.

If Assad launches a strike on Israel (I am not sure why he would) he knows full well that they'll whack him smartly at the very least.

Lonewolf 50, thank you for your comment. I make the assertion for the following reasons:

1. During Gulf War 1, it was said that the Israeli's had James Baker warn the Iraqi's off, about using WMD through the UN.
2. The Israeli's reserved the right to use the Samson option and did have their nuclear weapons uploaded during GW1.
3. Considerable air and special forces assets were deployed in the Iraqi western desert to hunt for Scuds.
4. The actions of a despot in bringing the house down on himself and people rather than surrender and end up like Hussain, Ghadaffi or Coschescu (sp) and end up on the end of a rope or in front of a firing squad.
5. And, I have made this comment in the past, that after having 6million co-religionists industrially murdered over 12 years along with millions of other victims of Nazi Germany they would not allow it to happen again, no matter the cost. This has been displayed at Entebbe and in Ethiopia and in actions capturing Eichmann and the recent Dubai debacle.

My comments are not meant to to be alarmist just a view that needs to be made as the consequences of not thinking this thing through will have devastating consequences not just for the people of Syria but the region and the world.

[Lonewolf_50]

airpig, thank you for the reply.
bottom line up front:
My comments are not meant to to be alarmist just a view that needs to be made as the consequences of not thinking this thing through will have devastating consequences not just for the people of Syria but the region and the world.
Good point, and we are in accord on your general concern. If I may offer a rejoinder to points raised.
1. During Gulf War 1, it was said that the Israeli's had James Baker warn the Iraqi's off, about using WMD through the UN.
2. The Israeli's reserved the right to use the Samson option and did have their nuclear weapons uploaded during GW1.
3. Considerable air and special forces assets were deployed in the Iraqi western desert to hunt for Scuds.
4. The actions of a despot in bringing the house down on himself and people rather than surrender and end up like Hussain, Ghadaffi or Coschescu (sp) and end up on the end of a rope or in front of a firing squad.
5. And, I have made this comment in the past, that after having 6million co-religionists industrially murdered over 12 years along with millions of other victims of Nazi Germany they would not allow it to happen again, no matter the cost. This has been displayed at Entebbe and in Ethiopia and in actions capturing Eichmann and the recent Dubai debacle.
Point 1: there was more to that than the Israeli issue, and Saddam shot Scuds at them anyway to try and drive a wedge between the US and its various Arab allies GW1. Didn't work.
Point 2: Of course they do. What's the point of having nukes if you don't reserve the right to use them, in extremis? As I see it, that has naught to do with current situation. I'd say their nuclear target list includes zero target sets in Syria, for a lot of reasons (proximity being one). Check a bit further east for their target list, I'd say.
Point 3: Irrelevant to the current situation, but possibly relevant if Assad tries to copy Saddam's Scud attacks on Israel.
Point 4: That indeed is the wild card, and the great unknown. Speaking of the Samson option ... pulling the house down indeed! :eek: To what extreme will he go? Your guess as good as mine.
Point 5: Israel will do what is necessary to ensure Israel survives. Agreed. In the long term, use of nukes may turn neutrals against Israel who aren't antagonistic now. The Strategists in Israel have to think long term, not just deal with a present problem. I think the smarter ones know that, and do that.

Thanks again for your views, you raise some good and troubling points.

[tartare]

Hollande describing a `vile act that threatens world peace' and Jay Carney telling White House reporters `expect it this week.'
Likely to see some surprising tactics etc used I think.
Since Kosovo and even Libya, experience with UAVs has increased considerably.
I remember reading something a few years back that said militarily, the US is not now a superpower, it is a hyperpower - with a military exponentially more lethal than GW1.
Personally, I think Putin and the Iranians are all talk.
They'll make all the noise in the world publicly beforehand, but openly confront the Americans in any significant way, or try and whack Israel with anything of substance?
They wouldn't dare.
With respect to those who hold different opinions (and we should hang our heads in shame for Rwanda) I think it's time to smash Assad.
Yes there'll be collateral damage, an Alawite/Shia/Sunni/Salafist mess afterwards, but are we really going to stand back and let someone like this gas his own people?
The speed with which the UK, France and other Allied nations have swung in to back the US suggests to me that the politicians and intel agencies know something we don't - yet.
Maybe sometimes the spooks do get it right.
This is different to Iraq (we don't have that terminal idiot Bush 43 in the WH, or a slippery little toad like Blair in Downing Street). As much as you all may dislike Cameron and Obama - I sense they've got a bit more integrity than those two.

[air pig]

Lonewolf 50, I suspect we are not too far apart with this situation. In regard to:-

1, The Israeli's were worried about the use of CW or radiological warheads in particular things like Cobalt 50 I believe, they did have Patriot as a defence and could tolerate conventional strikes as they did not want to break the coalition apart. The diversion and deployment of special forces, UK SAS AuSAS and Delta and the creation of Scud hunting boxes.
2. Under SALT and SALT II if I remember correctly the agreement was that nuclear weapons would be targeted at non national areas such as oceans, but how long does it take to upload a new target package.
3. Could be factor if this gets really very nasty and do we want troops from either country in a hostile CBRN environment.
5. Israel will always ensure its survival and right to exist and have fought for that since 1948. Sometimes a long term view is difficult when met with a potentially existence terminating short term problem. I suspect various Israeli governments like any responsible government holding WMD has had many discussions even crisis of conscience about the use of WMD in national defence and survival. The UK and the US will have had them.

I suggest that you try ARmy RSE - Army Rumour Service (ARRSE) (http://www.arrse.co.uk) and the thread in Interests and Hobbies, history thread about the release of historical papers about nuclear war preparedness. Interesting current affairs programme on BBC in the UK www.bbc.co,uk/newsnight showing now, available on iPlayer later.

As I said, we are not too far apart, just view this impossible position slightly differently.

Regards

Air pig

[Airborne Aircrew]

Really, why do we care?

No matter what it's a lose - lose situation. The USA has already screwed up twice in the Middle East in the last couple of years giving the radicals control in countries they never had before. So Assad is another "nasty man" but why is it our business? Let him kill his people enough that they actually have the power to throw him out themselves...

[Lonewolf_50]

Question 1:
Assad abdicating? First link raises that question of him considering exile in Iran. Betting the under on that.

Question 2:
is this funny or what? (http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/18y9p24qtwunwjpg/original.jpg)

:8

[AtomKraft]

My 2p worth.

1. What's the difference between killing a thousand civvies with guns and shells, and killing a thousand civvies with chemicals?

As far as I can tell, there's no difference.

We don't give a flying f*ck when he kills 10,000 with guns- but if he kills a few hundred by gassing them- we get all outraged and something must be done.

:rolleyes:

And what are we going to do anyway? As usual, where is our strategy?

ie, what do we hope to achieve, with our intervention, what are we doing it for? That sort of thing.

No amount of good tactics can compensate for second-rate strategy.

Also, no-one- including political parties, can say whether they are for or against military intervention, until the strategy has been outlined! Only when it has been made clear what we are trying to do can folk say whether they are for it, or against it. The actual tactics are very secondary here.

2. This is Syrians, killing other Syrians, in Syria.
What exactly has it got to do with the UK?

[air pig]

Assad: abdicating, more like getting the family out so they do not become hostages or obtaining political cover in the UN or meeting the Russians/Chinese on friendly ground.

AA and AK, totally agree with your points of view.

[Melchett01]

Eclectic,

That report doesn't make me feel any warmer or fuzzier. In fact it just seem to confirm my suspicion that they really don't know what's going on and this is a knee-jerk reaction by liberal western powers offended that not everybody shares their sense of 'fair play'.

When they are trying to make a case for military action, and in doing so describe a meeting of Obama's National Security Team which reportedly included " “detailed analysis” of evidence about the chemical attacks that provides “a near air-tight circumstantial case that the Syrian regime was behind it.” it doesn't fill me with confidence.

How on earth can you have a near air-tight circumstantial case? It's like being a little bit pregnant! It can't be done. It's either air tight and provides a robust case for action or it isn't. I just hope the powers that be can count, because right now it looks like they are trying to put 2 and 2 together - for all our sakes they had better come up with 4.

[air pig]

How on earth can you have a near air-tight circumstantial case? It's like being a little bit pregnant! It can't be done. It's either air tight and provides a robust case for action or it isn't. I just hope the powers that be can count, because right now it looks like they are trying to put 2 and 2 together - for all our sakes they had better come up with 4.

War without evidence, fantastic, reminds me of the slimeballs Blair and Campbell over GW II and their manufactured evidence if not lies. Why they are not waiting for the inspectors but that happened with Blix before GW II and we know what happened there. If the Americans want to attack, to my mind let them carry on.

Some female on Newsnight from the ? US State Department wittering on about the idea of attacking Syria, probably has never been down the road to Walter Reid to see the consequences of sending people to war.

[smujsmith]

Atomkraft,

A seriously important point you make there. The outrage amongst Western politicians regarding the use of Chemical weapons, begs that very question. Why is it OK to gun down 10,000, but gas 1000 and its end of the world, eyeball rolling faux moralistic spin is my opinion. Meanwhile, for all the assertions of "evidence" we still await US or UK Government publication.evidence of Assads guilt. After 2003 I have no trust in any Politician or Political lacky in their assertions of certainty. What do we think our governments reaction to a UN announcement that the Rebels had done this ? I suppose they would blame Assad because he was the President at the time.

Smudge

[Airborne Aircrew]

sense of 'fair play'.

I do believe that, nowadays, when people are fighting for their lives "fair play" is a bu!!sh1t concept that is only considered by those that have only ever sat in the comfort of their own homes whilst being protected by those who see "fair play" as an opportunity to win. YMMV...

[500N]

I agree.

It has all the hallmarks of tying to fit a round peg into a square hole.

Obama and his red line comment means he has to do something,
as so well explained in that article posted earlier and / or someone
said, we need to do something, let's drop a few bombs, what options
do we have !


air pig
"probably has never been down the road to Walter Reid to see the consequences of sending people to war."

+ 100 :D

Every member of Congress should go and every member of Parliament
in the UK should go to the UK Hospital.

[500N]

AA

Agree.

That's why we keep losing, we tie a hand behind our backs
and use Marquess of Queensberry rules in a Muay Thai fight !

[henra]

The speed with which the UK, France and other Allied nations have swung in to back the US suggests to me that the politicians and intel agencies know something we don't - yet.


You mean like in Iraq?

Seriously - Your trust in politicians is breathtaking! :eek:

As dozens of other very reasoned Posts here have stated: What exactly is the strategy and goal of a military action?
Military action should never be just about: Don't stand there - just do something!?
It should be the result of careful evaluation of all alternatives and clearly fit into a well defined strategy and also include Backup and Exit strategies.
Everything else invariably leads to a big mess.
Where can I find those strategies for Syria again?

[air pig]

500 N: in the words of the Kevin Costner Untouchables film, 'you don't bring a knife to a gunfight'.

One must wonder why there a lot of Saudi air force aircraft in the UK at Coningsby, Brize and through Mildenhall reportedly doing Green Flag type exercises.

Eclectic : unconfirmed is the operative term, and as asserted by others could it be a 'false flag' Saddam and sons had a few doubles in the past.

air pig
"probably has never been down the road to Walter Reid to see the consequences of sending people to war."

+ 100

Every member of Congress should go and every member of Parliament
in the UK should go to the UK Hospital. I'd drag them down to the Queen Elizabeth and Hedley Court by the scruff of their necks to ask forgiveness for their follies in committing men and women to war on a lie, leading with Blair then Campbell.

[tartare]

Guess your breath will just have to be taken Henra.
Who's to say there isn't a plan - and an exit strategy.
I imagine the reason you can't find them is because they'e classified?
Will this sort of scenario have been wargamed to death at the Pentagon and elsewhere - I think so.
I think those making the decisions are well aware of what it may mean in cost of lives and (possibly) maimed servicemen.
Iraq looms large as an egregious, ****ty, cynical lie of a war - and I believe history will reveal that Bush went in there for no other reason than the fact that Saddam wanted to kill his daddy - not about oil or anything like that.
Blair followed because he is a card carrying narcissist.
So there - I don't have faith in all politicians.
This is different.
In this case quite happy to be called naive, armchair general or whatever.
Still believe it's the right thing to do.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Tartare:

Who's to say there isn't a plan - and an exit strategy.Recent history is a good indicator...

As someone just said... Trusting the polis in this basically only costs the lives of good men and women. Time to send the polis and let the good people stay home... Then they will have a better appreciation for human life.

Up until 20-30 years ago most polis had served in WWII etc. and understand what it means. Now we have a bunch of useless wankers throwing bodies down range with no care in the world.

No matter what we do it will be the wrong thing for the region and will end up being the wrong thing for us, (UK and US)... Screw them, let them squabble amongst themselves and then deal firmly with the result.

[Melchett01]

I do believe that, nowadays, when people are fighting for their lives "fair play" is a bu!!sh1t concept that is only considered by those that have only ever sat in the comfort of their own homes whilst being protected by those who see "fair play" as an opportunity to win. YMMV...

AA - the only people getting worked up about this are the US, UK and Fr - all countries with centre / centre left administrations and a generally Liberal outlook on life, who are keen to send other people to war when their dinner table conversations get a bit too close for comfort and they need to feel as though they are doing something.

If Syria is such a problem, why are the Arab states not squaring up to Assad? Why are they not front and centre, after all, this is in their own back yard, not ours. They are the ones with the most to lose when this all goes horribly wrong. Or alternatively, just what do the Arab states know or understand that we seemingly don't?

And what the heck is YMMV!?

[Ronald Reagan]

Dave and Will go mad in Syria - YouTube (http://youtu.be/CSu1EQkA3_I)

[Airborne Aircrew]

Melchett01:

after all, this is in their own back yard, not oursAgreed... Why are we caring... I don't know a single one of these people and, frankly, I trust none of them. We need to stay out of their silly squabbles. There's a time to act and a time to sit back and watch people screw up... After missing three or four opportunities to do so maybe this is the time to be wise...

YMMV = Your Mileage May Vary... :ok:

[AtomKraft]

tartare.

I admire your trust in our leaders. They must wish there were more like you.

I've got no problem with us acting in Syria.

But before we do, I'd just like to know:

1. What do we hope to achieve by our action? And how might we effect this?
2. When we've done it, will we and the Syrians be better or worse off?
3. What are the chances that our intervention will make things worse or better, in the long term?
4. If we go in, how will we leave?

All, as I'm sure you appreciate, the 'nuts and bolts' of any military operation.

When I've seen these points outlined, I'll be able to decide if my representatives are acting prudently, or just making complete cnuts of us all, like they did the last couple of times that they waded in without a fukcing clue what the hell they were trying to do, what the consequences might be, and how the f%ck they were going to get out!

Once bitten, twice bitten......:rolleyes:

[air pig]

AA - the only people getting worked up about this are the US, UK and Fr - all countries with centre / centre left administrations and a generally Liberal outlook on life, who are keen to send other people to war when their dinner table conversations get a bit too close for comfort and they need to feel as though they are doing something.

If Syria is such a problem, why are the Arab states not squaring up to Assad? Why are they not front and centre, after all, this is in their own back yard, not ours. They are the ones with the most to lose when this all goes horribly wrong. Or alternatively, just what do the Arab states know or understand that we seemingly don't?

Your first paragraph is I feel is very true, in that they'd never wave their sons or daughters off to war, that's for the 'ordinary little people' who are not 'one of us' but in the world of the old saying is 'that they sleep soundly in their beds because rough men stand on the walls to protect them'

The second paragraph, every time they've gone to war against another country usually Israel, they have had their a**es handed to them in bag after a damn good kicking and being told to get back in their boxes, but very good at torturing and killing their own people when the opposition is week or non existent.

[tartare]

AA, AK - your viewpoints respected.
A question - has Obama visited Walter Reid?
One thing I would point out about the man.
I do respect the fact that he's made sure he is personally involved in approving every kill decision r/e drone strikes.
Although I wouldn't even remotely classify myself as a democrat... ;)

[NutLoose]

Here's another interesting twice

US ?backed plan to launch chemical weapon attack on Syria, blame it on Assad govt?: Report (http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=73219)

[AtomKraft]

500N

The reason we keep losing, is because there is no proper goal (strategy) set at the beginning.

There's really no other reason for our continual arse-kickings.

Before you start one of these 'wars', you need to know exactly what you are starting it for.

You need to know exactly what you wish to achieve, and why.

You need to know roughly how you hope to achieve it- and how long you're prepared to stick with the fight- ie, how badly you want to win.

Ask yourself these questions on the Vietnam war for example (or Iraq/ Afghanistan?)

If we do 'something' in Syria, let us at least decide what we hope to achieve, before trying to achieve it.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Tartare:

A question - has Obama visited Walter Reid?

Yes, he met a Corpseman there...

[500N]

"One thing I would point out about the man.
I do respect the fact that he's made sure he is personally involved in approving every kill decision r/e drone strikes."

I'm not so sure on that.

To me it says here is someone who can't delegate and wants to be talking
directly to the pilot of the bomber on it's way to XYZ.

And why have Sec of Def, CJCS etc if you can't set a set of parameters
and which they then follow ?

It's a bit like briefing him on say the OBL raid of the insertion options
and then asking him which one he wants. WTF would he know.
Tell him what options have been looked at and then which one you
chose and why then all he needs to do is give the go ahead.

if you were briefing a military commander, different kettle of fish
as he would likely be able to call on 20+ years of experience.

[500N]

AtomKraft

Agree.

I am used to the military method of giving / taking orders.

[Avitor]

Cameron resembles a pampered little dog yapping out of some rich old Auntie's handbag.

[Ronald Reagan]

BBC News uses 'Iraq photo to illustrate Syrian massacre' - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/9293620/BBC-News-uses-Iraq-photo-to-illustrate-Syrian-massacre.html)

[NutLoose]

The reason we keep losing, is because there is no proper goal (strategy) set at the beginning

Smart weapons, air superiority, and all the high tech in the world will NEVER win a war, for that you need feet and lots of them on the ground to take, overwhelm and hold that ground.
You spend hundreds of thousands of pounds on equipment that can be taken out by one man and a £20 RPG or needs a man walking in front sweeping a path for it.

Look at Afghanistan, you have lots of little enclaves while the rest of the Country is a no go, they have operations from what i see on the news, move in take an area then pullback because they never have had the manpower to hold it. You will never win anything and hold it when your Army manning would struggle to fill a football ground, let alone a Country.

[West Coast]

How does one know how to roughly achieve an objective in anything above a tactical situation before you start? I agree an objective should be clear, but warfare is an evolving, dynamic unknown. If you attack me, I'm going to do my damnedest to figure out your plan and counter it requiring you to counter as well.

You try and make it sound simple. Something's simply can't be broken down to some basic element.

[Bill4a]

With apologies to Douglas Adams, as the bowl of petunias said "Oh no not again!"
Come on you bunch of c:mad:s (sorry, I meant career politicians) please learn the lessons from history and lets not go there ..... please?
Can we really afford to get involved, either morally or more to the point financially? As so many have said already 'they' wont thank us for it, and see it as just more 'Western aggression'.
But what do I know? :ugh:

[West Coast]

Nutloose

I don't see this as a war to win or lose. Lobbing a few cruise missiles is a punitive measure.

[NutLoose]

Which gets you absolutely nowhere. What do you gain from that? You may take out some of his infrastructure but what is stop him being re supplied?

You might lob a few Cruise missiles but can you see that ever being the end of it?

Ever since Maggie Thatcher we seem to have inherited a bunch of gun ho politicians who think that butting into other people's wars is the way they can stamp their mark on History.

This is going to end in a turgid mess, so Chemical weapons have been used, that never stopped the world ignoring Saddam when he was using them for years on the Kurds did it. One just hopes Syria haven't got any in this Country.




..

[Airborne Aircrew]

Nutloose:

Look at Afghanistan,

We Brits should know better... We played this game in the 1840's(?) and watched the Russians try again more recently... Shame on us for not learning...

[500N]

AA

They left one alive, Assistant Surgeon William Brydon,
but only to tell the story !

[500N]

West Coast

"How does one know how to roughly achieve an objective in anything above a tactical situation before you start? I agree an objective should be clear, but warfare is an evolving, dynamic unknown."

You have the overall Mission and then you have the missions within this that
collectively go to achieve the overall Mission.

You could call it Strategic versus Tactical with tactical missions used to achieve the strategic mission.

[West Coast]

500

Having a mission has no bearing on how to achieve it. Your plan on day one likely isn't going to resemble what the plan is on the last day, whether the objective is achieved or not. I think it's folly to think you have an idea of how to achieve the goal of winning before the war begins. You have your day one plan and adapt from there as the situation dictates.

[500N]

West Coast

I think we agree with each other, it's just the way we each word things.

:ok:

[Robert Cooper]

A Reuters poll last week found popular support for entering the Syrian war was only 9 percent. When Obama orders what is now seen as an inevitable attack on government forces there, he will be initiating what will likely be the first-ever military campaign of the modern era launched without popular support.

Given that Syria has weapons of mass destruction, formidable allies in Iran and Russia and is near enough to bomb Jerusalem, the idea of yet another intervention escapade does not sit well with folks here.

Secretary of State John Kerry declared that the evidence of a chemical weapons attack last week in Syria in "undeniable," but offered no proof of who did it.

Putin agrees that chemical weapons were used in Syria, but does not agree with the U.S. assessment that they were deployed by government forces rather than Islamist rebels.

Hossein Sheikholeslam, the director general of the Iranian parliament’s International Affairs bureau, says Israel will be the “first victim” of any U.S.-led military strike on Syria, predicting that President Bashar Assad’s regime would fight back against the Jewish state.

Our concern should be preventing those chemical weapons from falling into hands of Hezbollah, that should be guiding our action, not expressing moral outrage and widening the conflict.

Bob C

[500N]

"Our concern should be preventing those chemical weapons from falling into hands of Hezbollah, that should be guiding our action, not expressing moral outrage and widening the conflict."


IMHO, if Hezbollah wanted CW, they would get them and not necessarily
from Syrian Stockpiles. Although I think that they know that the wrath of Israel
would come down on them like a ton of bricks without any gloves if they deployed them.

[Robert Cooper]

Today (Tuesday) the White House began to lay out a public justification for a possible bombing of Syria, saying the nation’s use of chemical weapons is a threat to U.S. interests — a scenario that would allow Obama to order military strikes against Syria without requiring authorization from Congress or the United Nations.

I don’t quite see what the threat to our interests is, but I guess he does.

In the meantime, Carla del Ponte, a member of the U.N. Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria, told Swiss TV there were “strong, concrete suspicions but not yet incontrovertible proof,” that rebels seeking to oust Bashar al-Assad had used the nerve agent. She said “Testimony from victims strongly suggests it was the rebels, not the Syrian government, that used Sarin nerve gas.”

So who knows where the truth lies. Maybe everyone should all calm down until the UN inspectors have finished their job.

Bob C

[500N]

" So who knows where the truth lies. Maybe everyone should all calm down until the UN inspectors have finished their job."

Not going to happen.

They, the US, UK et al have made up their minds they are going to do
something and want to do it before any further concrete evidence is
found to the contrary.

Just my HO.

[VinRouge]

I just love how we are backing the side that used power drills for executions in Iraq, and who can forget the Chlorine tanker bomb outside the little girls school too?
We should be slaughtering these suufiists in droves.

I personally find the suggestion we need to support these sort of people abhorrent. :ugh:

[Onceapilot]

Political media tempo is now almost a morph of the hype seen during the "WMD" excuse before GW2. The US and UK politicians seem absolutely desparate to go with the escalation plan. Every concievable reason to "do the right thing" is being touted, without the slightest hint of a strategy or appreciation of the outcome that might result.
Just like a desparate gambler, the politicians are going to put their all their capital on a spin of the roulette wheel!:uhoh:

OAP

[enginesuck]

The possible ramifications have not been worked out here, yes CW are abhorrent but so are conventional weapons when used on a civilian population. Before acting here the US and UK leadership need to work out which brand of Islam they want to support. This sectarian conflict will not be solved with western intervention. Islamic peoples want to live under a dictatorship- it suits their mindframe and motivation. I think Iraq would have been better off with Saddam still in power. Controversial i admit.

[aviate1138]

The UN is as effective as a chocolate fireguard and until the UN speaks as one voice to pressurise Assad and that means Russia and China swapping sides [no chance!] then we should stay well away from any involvement. Let Tony B Liar spout his inanities [justifying his previous actions!] and frankly if Cameron pursues his 'derring do' line on Syria he has lost the next election for sure.

[tartare]

The newspaper that can't spell reveals a new development (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/28/israeli-intelligence-intercepted-syria-chemical-talk) - allegedly.
Meanwhile - wonder how many TLAMs they'll unleash?
Let's see - x4 Arleigh Burkes with 90 tubes each = 360?
Say x2 Ohio class = 300 TLAMs.
Any French subs headed that way?
Plus x1(?) Trafalgar class boat - total load 30 TLAMs? = 690ish in total at approx US$1.1m each?
Surely they'll need more than that... excuse my ignorance if I have any figures wrong.

[Lonewolf_50]

Atom Kraft:
1. What's the difference between killing a thousand civvies with guns and shells, and killing a thousand civvies with chemicals? As far as I can tell, there's no difference. We don't give a flying f*ck when he kills 10,000 with guns- but if he kills a few hundred by gassing them- we get
all outraged and something must be done.

Point well made. That said, we do give a hoot about the other killings, otherwise the support to rebels would not happen.
Some points later made, various participants.
1. No amount of good tactics can compensate for second-rate strategy.
2. This is Syrians, killing other Syrians, in Syria. What exactly has
it got to do with the UK?
3. How on earth can you have a near air-tight circumstantial case? It's like being a little bit pregnant!
4. The only people getting worked up about this are the US, UK and Fr - all
countries with centre / centre left administrations and a generally Liberal outlook on life, who are keen to send other people to war when their dinner table conversations get a bit too close for comfort and they need to feel as though they are doing something.

If Syria is such a problem, why are the Arab states not squaring up to Assad? Why are they not front and centre, after all, this is in their own back yard, not ours. They are the ones with the most to lose when this all goes horribly wrong.
I asked the same question in the early 90's about the European nations, and Bosnia. :p
Or alternatively, just what do the Arab states know or understand that we seemingly don't?
That they do OK at defending their own homelands, but they really suck these days at fighting outside of their own borders. The days of the spread of Islam by the sword are long gone. Why? Their soldiers / conscripts are more cynical than you or I.
Atom Kraft
1. What do we hope to achieve by our action?
2. When we've done it, will we and the Syrians be better or worse
off?
3. What are the chances that our intervention will make things worse or
better, in the long term?
4. If we go in, how will we leave?
All, as I'm sure you appreciate, the 'nuts and bolts' of any military operation.
FWIW, while I concur with your points, point 3 doesn't fit lobbing missiles to make a statement. Your missiles go in, blow stuff up, and there is no group of folks who need to leave.

Robert Cooper
Our concern should be preventing those chemical weapons from falling into hands of Hezbollah, that should be guiding our action, not expressing moral outrage and widening the conflict.
Aye.
Today (Tuesday) the White House began to lay out a public justification for a possible bombing of Syria, saying the nation’s use of chemical weapons is a threat to U.S. interests — a scenario that would allow Obama to order military strikes against Syria without requiring authorization from Congress or the United Nations.
I suppose that once again, the War Powers Act comes in handy for a sitting president. Not the first, won't be the last.
I don’t quite see what the threat to our interests is, but I guess he does.
I don't see it either.
aviate 1138
The UN is as effective as a chocolate fireguard
Well said.
Eclectic:
Iran and Syria have a mutual defence pact: https://www.google.com/hostednews/af...Uw1bYoR4fBdrew
"The two countries pledge their mutual support regarding territorial independence and integrity in terms of international and regional authorities,"
Your suggestion is that America want Iran to become involved as a pretext for destroying their nuclear ambitions. In this case, hitting Syria is bait to get Iran to do something they wouldn't normally do.

I don't think the Ayatollahs and RG leadership got to where they are today by being idiots. I don't care for them, but that doesn't make them stupid.

[PowerDragTrim]

What terrifies me is that all the investigation seems to have been on whether chemical weapons were used and little attention on who might have deployed them. 'It was Assad!' our politicians keep yelling. But I have seen no evidence produced to show this as a fact.
It seems to me that Assad has most to lose by using them, whereas the rebels have most to gain by dragging the West into their war.
There are many pictures of women and children gassed, but not a lot of 'fighters' in the laid out bodies.
It cannot be beyond the realms of fantasy that the opposition actually gassed some of their own side; they would of course be declared martyrs and gain all the appropriate after-life privileges.
We are being manipulated into another Arab war and I can only that our Parliament has the guts to stand up and say so.

[BEagle]

14th century people with 21st century weapons are unlikely to see reason.

I note that the wretched Bliar has made an unwelcome reappearance - presumably to give Call-me-Dave and Hague-the-Mekon some top tips on how to get away with illegal wars?

[phantomstreaker]

This is an incredibly emotive thread and very informative. Has anyone considered that as the US is allegedly going to run out of money again mid October unless the Senate increase the ex trillion $ overdraft. Isn't this a little bit convenient timing to start a Middle eastern war. All of a sudden extra cash is available?:uhoh:

[Ronald Reagan]

There's no public support for a Syrian war - YouTube (http://youtu.be/7VUMamkRcaw)
The only mainstream party leader of a UK party who is 100% against military action in Syria.

[langleybaston]

Oh! Oh! Brilliant interview.

"UKIP LEADER ENDORSES VAST MAJORITY OF INFORMED OPINIONS ON PRESTIGIOUS MILITARY AVIATION SITE"

Don't say I didn't tell you!

[ORAC]

Norman Tebbit: Syria: I hope I can support the Government tomorrow, but I'm not yet persuaded to do so (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/author/normantebbit/)

[airwaverider]

Syria: Phone Calls 'Prove' Regime Behind Attack (http://news.sky.com/story/1134277/syria-phone-calls-prove-regime-behind-attack)

[Ronald Reagan]

» Intelligence Suggests Assad Not Behind Chemical Weapons Attack Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind! (http://www.infowars.com/intelligence-suggests-assad-not-behind-chemical-weapons-attack/)

[Onceapilot]

So, it looks like Cameron has blown it. Committed to military action with the US and France on Sunday morning, he now looks likely to be marginal on domestic support in the house of commons and, his UN manouvre looks likely to stall for time.
What a quandary! Will he go for it anyway? Whatever he does, I think he has blown it, assisted by his little friend William.


OAP

[Ronald Reagan]

EXCLUSIVE ?We?re tired of wars? - Nigel Farage explains why we MUST resist striking Syria | UK | News | Daily Express (http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/425185/EXCLUSIVE-We-re-tired-of-wars-Nigel-Farage-explains-why-we-MUST-resist-striking-Syria)

[NutLoose]

Out of interest what exactly could you target?

If you went for his Chemical stockpiles surely the risk is high of spreading the stuff all over the shop as you would never be guaranteed to take them out 100% in which case what would you hit?

I noticed that slimey Hague was on discussing the meeting where the cabinet agreed for action, that they decided unanimously that the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime was unacceptable and that the world could not stand by ..... NOT that they had all agreed on action against them.

[TomJoad]

Except he (Farage) does not explain - that man and his party are full of trite vacuous statements more at home in the student debating club. He is not helping the situation.

[Ronald Reagan]

TomJoad, yes he is helping! We have the fools Cameron and Hague talking about war, war and more war! We have Farage as the only mainstream UK party leader who does not want to get involved. This will give people who are sick of all these little wars a party to vote for come the next election and in all future elections. Farage is speaking for a great majority of the British people when he speaks in this way. The British military doing nothing in in Syria is the best possible outcome.

If you want peace in future then vote UKIP, for more wars then any of the others!

[NutLoose]

What Ronald said, have to agree he is the only one that appears to be following what the people want, and after all a politician is the voice of the people and a servant thereof.

[robin]

I have little doubt the children in the Commons will support 'call me Dave'


My concern is that there isn't an end game unless boots go back on the ground. Remind me again how many of Hague's, Cameron's, Clegg's and Obama's children are serving in the forces....

[NutLoose]

It should be de rigour that the first Aircraft, landing craft or tank into what ever country we invade should be carrying a senior politician from the Government of the day..... That would curb the Gunho attitude they have.

[500N]

Nutloose

Agree. And they can stay at point all the way to the end !

And I said either on this or the other Syrian thread, a visit to
Walter Reed or Headley Court.

[West Coast]

Narrowly speaking is an elected official there to give the public what they want on every issue?
We're trying that experiment here and it's not going so well.

[fantom]

Might it be that he is going to the Commons hoping to lose the vote and thereby save face by not going to war?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

AFAIK, the only UN documented use of chemical weapons so far has been by... Western-backed rebels trying to make it look like Assad's forces did it.

See Ronald Reagan's link above.

[Rosevidney1]

Thomas Hardy wrote:
‘Peace upon earth!’ was said. We sing it,
And pay a million priests to bring it.
After two thousand years of mass
We’ve got as far as poison gas.

Only 2 things are necessary for war. The will and the capacity. I can't see the former and the coagulation has denuded us of the latter.

[NutLoose]

Well if there is any truth to this, welcome to WW3 part 1

Putin Orders Massive Strike Against Saudi Arabia If West Attacks Syria | EUTimes ? Iranian.com (http://iranian.com/posts/view/post/19821)

Saudis offer Russia secret oil deal if it drops Syria - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10266957/Saudis-offer-Russia-secret-oil-deal-if-it-drops-Syria.html)

[Pontius Navigator]

Nutloose, we agree.

On local radio yesterday a caller proposed the perfect solution.

Give all the politicians a rifle and tin hat. We'll follow.

[TEEEJ]

Nutloose,

Welcome to the world of the conspiracy nuts and hoaxers!

The story 'Putin Orders Massive Strike Against Saudi Arabia If West Attacks Syria' is a fabrication of Sorcha Faal (David Booth). If you thought Alex Jones (Infowars) was bad then David Booth making stuff up under 'Sorcha Faal' goes even further.

Sorcha Faal... Internet Hoax Queen Courtesy of David Booth..., page 1 (http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread304918/pg1)

[500N]

PN

"On local radio yesterday a caller proposed the perfect solution.

Give all the politicians a rifle and tin hat. We'll follow."

+ 100

That is gold :ok:

I'd follow, with my bayonet attached to my rifle just to give them
a prod along if they started having second thoughts.

[smujsmith]

I see that "Liebore" have proposed an amendment to tomorrow's debate, suggesting that no military action is taken until UN reports confirm the culprits. I see no reason whatsoever why every MP in the house of conmen can't support that. After all, no conviction without a proof of guilt is surely the norm for our country. Back that and make Hague and Co wait. This is becoming a frenzy too far I believe.

Smudge

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

We'll follow.

"...at a safe distance, and only out of curiosity"

as my old IOT FS used to say

[Airborne Aircrew]

Nutloose:

Give all the politicians a rifle and tin hat. We'll follow.

I say bollocks... Defense cuts preclude the issue of the helmet... Screw them like they screwed the military... :ok:

[500N]

We only need to tell them that it will be over by Christmas
and home "without firing a shot" :O

[TomJoad]

TomJoad,

Farage is speaking for a great majority of the British people when he speaks in this way. The British military doing nothing in in Syria is the best possible outcome.

If you want peace in future then vote UKIP, for more wars then any of the others!

Doubtful, very, very much. Don't confuse a desire to avoid military action with a vote of confidence for these loons. They are and will remain a marginal force in UK politics. IMHO of course - we will need to disagree on that one then.

[TomJoad]

"...at a safe distance, and only out of curiosity"

as my old IOT FS used to say

:D:D:D Yes, if only.

Tom

[CoffmanStarter]

The House of Commons will have to hold two votes before it can back "direct" military action in Syria, the government has announced.

MPs, returning early to Westminster on Thursday, will debate a motion on a "strong humanitarian response" to an alleged chemical weapons attack.

A second vote on military action will only happen after the UN has considered reports by its inspectors, it adds.

Labour said David Cameron had "changed his mind" under pressure.

The Motion ...

"This House:

"Deplores the use of chemical weapons in Syria on 21 August 2013 by the Assad regime, which caused hundreds of deaths and thousands of injuries of Syrian civilians;

"Recalls the importance of upholding the worldwide prohibition on the use of chemical weapons under international law;

"Agrees that a strong humanitarian response is required from the international community and that this may, if necessary, require military action that is legal, proportionate and focused on saving lives by preventing and deterring further use of Syria's chemical weapons;

"Notes the failure of the United Nations Security Council over the last two years to take united action in response to the Syrian crisis;

"Notes that the use of chemical weapons is a war crime under customary law and a crime against humanity - and that the principle of humanitarian intervention provides a sound legal basis for taking action;

"Notes the wide international support for such a response, including the statement from the Arab League on 27 August which calls on the international community, represented in the United Nations Security Council, to 'overcome internal disagreements and take action against those who committed this crime, for which the Syrian regime is responsible';

"Believes, in spite of the difficulties at the United Nations, that a United Nations process must be followed as far as possible to ensure the maximum legitimacy for any such action;

"Therefore welcomes the work of the United Nations investigating team currently in Damascus. Whilst noting that the team's mandate is to confirm whether chemical weapons were used and not to apportion blame, agrees that the United Nations Secretary General should ensure a briefing to the United Nations Security Council immediately upon the completion of the team's initial mission;

"Believes that the United Nations Security Council must have the opportunity immediately to consider that briefing and that every effort should be made to secure a Security Council Resolution backing military action before any such action is taken. Before any direct British involvement in such action a further vote of the House of Commons will take place.

"Notes that this motion relates solely to efforts to alleviate humanitarian suffering by deterring use of chemical weapons and does not sanction any action in Syria with wider objectives."

More here on the BBC News HomePage ...

BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23862114)

[maxred]

I note that the wretched Bliar has made an unwelcome reappearance - presumably to give Call-me-Dave and Hague-the-Mekon some top tips on how to get away with illegal wars?

This wretched creature, Tony B Liar, should be strapped to the first, inevitable, cruise, lobbed by the Coalishon, he is after all the 'PEACE ENVOY'.

I actually despair......

[TomJoad]

I see that "Liebore" have proposed an amendment to tomorrow's debate, suggesting that no military action is taken until UN reports confirm the culprits. I see no reason whatsoever why every MP in the house of conmen can't support that. After all, no conviction without a proof of guilt is surely the norm for our country. Back that and make Hague and Co wait. This is becoming a frenzy too far I believe.

Smudge

Agreed .

[Onceapilot]

DIVIDE AND RULE. DC's latest googlie. See BBC's latest, on plan for TWO votes in UK Parliament. Only a desperate political situation could precipitate such measures. A conditional win by Cameron in Parliament on Thursday will be "overtaken by events" on Sunday morning as UK forces strike back.
Just my opinion.

OAP

[CoffmanStarter]

OAP ... I think you may be right ... But hope you are wrong :(

[Dunky]

They're so desperate to rush into someone else's war. What's the hurry, Syria isn't going anywhere. If the UN can get a resolution agreed, and if other countries are willing to take action, then maybe we could be part of the coalition, though I think the prospects of those politicians who vote in favour of our involvement may find their careers cut short at the next election. We don't need to follow the US in everything, we didn't get involved in Vietnam, and we shouldn't get involved in this. If we can't afford to keep our roads in a good state, not to mention the budget cuts to the MoD, how can we afford this? Where's the money to come from? Politicians, there isn't an honest one amongst them.

[smujsmith]

A very astute photo I came accross

http://i1292.photobucket.com/albums/b572/smujsmith/image_zps40ab70fe.jpg (http://s1292.photobucket.com/user/smujsmith/media/image_zps40ab70fe.jpg.html)

Perhaps Camoron shaping up to get "in shot" tomorrow. Or is it someone else ?????

Smudge

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

OAP is probably right. There is no need for the military option to be mentioned otherwise in the first vote. It should properly be left until the second vote when the UN report is in.

How stupid are Labour??

p.s. sharpen up smuj, you can come across that pic on the previous page

[Levelling_the_Land]

Lots of fast jet noise high above East Anglia today. On my hols not a million miles from Cromer and there's been a day of constant background rumble, and it isn't thunder...

[Dunky]

p.s. sharpen up smuj, you can come across that pic on the previous page

Must be a Nav, behind everyone else :E

[alemaobaiano]

a rocket and projectile identical to those used in last week's chemical warfare attack

AFAIK nobody has identified which side was responsible, much less the delivery system used last week, so stating as a fact that it is "identical" is merely your opinion, as usual.

There are other videos doing the rounds of various rebel groups prepping their chemical weapons, why haven't you posted those?

[NutLoose]

The only weapon against a gas attack I would entrust to the cronies we have in power occupying Westminster is...

http://supermart.ae/product_images/s/648/alka_seltzer_classic__25101_zoom.jpg

[smujsmith]

Ohh Dunky,

Never did I rise to the exalted status of master race, let alone "one winged". Fox 3 my bad on that, it's just such an appealing shot that does the old "picture says a thousand words". Apologies to all for any repetition.

Smudge

[NutLoose]

I must admit Eclectic, for a proffesional and well equipped military such as the Syrians have, that launcher does look a bit of a lash up that's been knocked up down some backstreet, one would imagine if the regime stockpiled Chemical Weapons they would have also procured vehicles to launch them, it's a bit like buying bullets but not the gun to fire them.





..

[Robert Cooper]

Some interesting comments from Ryan Crocker, a career diplomat with long experience in the Middle East, and who served as the U.S. ambassador to Syria.

Quote:

“I was in Lebanon when the Israelis invaded in June of 1982, and the entire Syrian air force was basically just destroyed in a matter of hours because of inadequate air defenses,” said Crocker. “The Syrians learned from that and have spent decades with their Russian allies developing a highly advanced, well-integrated air defense system,” Crocker continued. “That's what makes a no-fly zone so much more dangerous in Syria than in, say, Iraq or Libya. There's every chance we would lose aircraft.”
“Whatever we say or don't say, they are going to continue the fight. There's just no question about it. Whether we talked about red lines a year ago or did not talk about red lines a year ago, it doesn't change the calculus of the Syrian regime at all," Crocker said, "They are utterly ruthless and utterly determined to win a fight for their survival.”

Bob C

[henra]

I must admit Eclectic, for a proffesional and well equipped military such as the Syrians have, that launcher does look a bit of a lash up that's been knocked up down some backstreet, one would imagine if the regime stockpiled Chemical Weapons they would have also procured vehicles to launch them

That's what crossed my mind as well. Is that really a Rocket Launcher procured and used by a regular Army?
What indications can we find in the vid that those are indeed regular Syrian Army troops?
Did you just conclude it from the title of the vid?
My first Impression was rather: Another Group of Rebels having DIYed indigenious weaponry.

[500N]

"“The Syrians learned from that and have spent decades with their Russian allies developing a highly advanced, well-integrated air defense system,”"


It didn't do them much good when the Israelis bombed the Nuclear Reactor,
allowing over 10+ Israeli aircraft to fly over 2/3rds of Syria to get there ?

Regardless, I agree, it is a different environment.

[air pig]

The Syrians learned from that and have spent decades with their Russian allies developing a highly advanced, well-integrated air defense system,”"


It didn't do them much good when the Israelis bombed the Nuclear Reactor,
allowing over 10+ Israeli aircraft to fly over 2/3rds of Syria to get there ?

Regardless, I agree, it is a different environment.

Didn't the Israelis hook through Turkey for that raid and they did have people on the ground target designating.

[500N]

I thought they only returned through Turkey (as they dropped the
drop tanks in Turkey).

Yes, from the reports I read, they had troops on the ground designating
the target.

Going to check now re the route in.


Edit
I can't find it. Either way, the location is still a long way inside Syria.

[West Coast]

There have been advances (and some setbacks) in SEAD technology in the Western world as well. That said, the Syrians have downed US aircraft in the past.

[Airborne Aircrew]

One really wonder why around 100,000 people in Syria can die "conventionally" and no-one really cares but when a couple of hundred or so die by chemical we need to start a war...

Who went to war over Bhopal? Other than a few lawyers no-one really gave a sh1t... Are we saying that Indians are worth less then Arabs?

[NutLoose]

Eclectic,
Could be, but the rocket itself didn't look like a Bodge job, looked like a proper missile, not your average DIY superstore Special, so you would have thought they'd have launchers for it? Just thinking out loud.


Actually Bhopal still irks me as no one ever went to Jail and the poor buggers are still suffering because the site was never cleaned up......
I often thought BP should have turned round to the US bleating about cleaning up the Gulf of Mexico spill debacle, the compensation over it and reminded them about Bhopal.

..

[air pig]

I thought they only returned through Turkey (as they dropped the
drop tanks in Turkey).

Yes, from the reports I read, they had troops on the ground designating
the target.

Going to check now re the route in.


Edit
I can't find it. Either way, the location is still a long way inside Syria.

I would have thought they would drop the tanks on ingress rather than egress in case the have to in the unlikely event engage in combat. I too, cannot find the routes, maybe they were never published for they may have needed them for later use.

[air pig]

1,200 of the ballistic missiles I named were manufactured in Syria.
So they should be able to make short range rocket artillery.

Not if you buy them in kit form and just assemble them.

[500N]

air pig

"I would have thought they would drop the tanks on ingress rather than egress in case the have to in the unlikely event engage in combat. I too, cannot find the routes, maybe they were never published for they may have needed them for later use."

Understand that fully but I am not a pilot so can't expand further.

Here is one reference, not the original one I knew about.
I haven't cross checked any of the info in this.

The Aviationist » Operation Orchard (http://theaviationist.com/tag/operation-orchard/)

The fact they got through, took out an Air Defence System
close to the target and did the whole thing uncontacted I thought
was pretty good.

[TomJoad]

Actually Bhopal still irks me as no one ever went to Jail and the poor buggers are still suffering because the site was never cleaned up......
I often thought BP should have turned round to the US bleating about cleaning up the Gulf of Mexico spill debacle, the compensation over it and reminded them about Bhopal.

..

Agreed - it was conveniently forgotten. I remember watching some American senator baying for BP's blood - I couldn't think how hypocritical. The actual damage done by the BP incident was grossly overestimated in comparison to Bhopal. It was blatant that their intention was to bankrupt BP for commercial gain. The poor sods in India were discarded without thought. Anyway we drift.

[thing]

Not like the Yanks to be hypocritical though is it.

I might add the Yanks as a nation not as individuals.

[Sunfish]

This is all BS, exactly as it was with Iraqs WMD. Anyone who elieves otherwise is either a nutcase or a paid agent provocateur.

The attempt by KSA Prince Bandar to bribe Russia demonstrates the modus operandi of KSA. One can therefore be forgiven for suspecting Cameron and Hollande have been similarly approached and bribed, perhaps personally, perhaps as a Government. Make no mistake, Saudi Arabia has purchased this war.

The Americans? They are owned lock stock and barrel by AIPAC, the America Israel public affairs committee and will do Israels bidding.

THe hypocrisy of the "responsibility to protect" crows is self evident and the allegations of CW use by Assad are extremely unconvincing.

If CW had been used it wouldn't be "300 dead and 3000 injured" it would be the reverse: "3000 dead and 300 injured" the medicos and stretcher barers would be among the dead as well.

Furthermore, exactly why would Assad risk a western strike when he was already winning? Where was the coordinated follow up attack by Syrian troops in full CW protection gear?

This whole thing stinks to high heaven and we risk starting WW3 as a direct result..

[Airborne Aircrew]

If CW had been used it wouldn't be "300 dead and 3000 injured" it would be the reverse: "3000 dead and 300 injured" the medicos and stretcher barers would be among the dead as well.

Not true... If it was Sarin then it becomes more effective, (it evaporates more quickly and gets into the atmosphere), as temperature rises but, similarly, it becomes less persistent, (it is effective for less time)... So emergency workers could walk in quite easily as long as they stay away from any pools of it and the existence of pools would depend on the delivery method - pools would indicate a very primitive delivery.

[Ascend Charlie]

So what is worse - killing people by leaving their bodies intact but poisoning their systems, or blowing bits off them and poking holes in them so they bleed to death or die from infections and peritonitis?

It's a heck of a lot cleaner to remove intact bodies than retrieve bits of toasted flesh from a crater.

Still not nice to kill your citizens, and we are being a bit hypocritical in many ways.

[tartare]

A link here to a balanced Scientific American article (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=too-late-chemical-weapons-syria) on Sarin, how long it lingers and what inspectors test for.

[NutLoose]

So Simon Hughes was on the news saying they were just going to target the storage and production of CW's, pray tell how blowing seven shades of poo out of the site does not contaminate that site and release a cloud of the stuff into the atmosphere to drift downwind?
It would seem to me that the "coalition" may end up releasing more CW's onto the local populace than the incident that caused it in the first place.. That of course is if they haven't already been dispersed.



..

[CaptainProp]

Airborne Aircrew -
One really wonder why around 100,000 people in Syria can die "conventionally" and no-one really cares but when a couple of hundred or so die by chemical we need to start a war...

:D

[ORAC]

Russian news agency quoting military source that they are deploying an ASW ship [destroyer/] from the Northern Fleet and the ASW cruiser Moscow from the Black Sea to the Med.

Don't they have to get permission/give notice to the Turks to transit the Bosphorus?

[500N]

Christ, it will be all over by the time they get there !

[Courtney Mil]

Nutloose,

I have a possible answer to that. As I understand it, Sarin stores very badly; it degrades quite quickly giving it a relatively short shelf life. To get around this, it is typically stored as two separate components that are mixed to produce Sarin and then loaded into whatever delivery system they. Alternatively, the two components are loaded into a shell, bomb, etc, and these are mixed as the weapon is released, dropped, fired - I.E. a binary weapon.

The upshot is that the storage facility probably does not contain Sarin. That said, the chemical precursors aren't very nice, just nowhere near as bad as nerve agent.

[tartare]

So if binary - they may be able to hit the storage facilities and not necessarily release finished sarin?
Assad is certainly getting plenty of time to relocate, hide, move assets...

[ORAC]

Sky reporting the MOD as stating that they are deploying 6 Typhoons from CY to Akrotiri in the AD role in a "defensive posture".

This is a rebranding of the 29 Sqn det or an additional detachment?

[TEEEJ]

Orac wrote


Russian news agency quoting military source that they are deploying an ASW ship [destroyer/] from the Northern Fleet and the ASW cruiser Moscow from the Black Sea to the Med.

Don't they have to get permission/give notice to the Turks to transit the Bosphorus?

The Moskva isn't coming from the Black Sea but from the Caribbean. She has been on a goodwill tour of Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. She is still a long way off!

MEXICO, August 27 (RIA Novosti) - A Russian naval task force, led by the Moskva missile cruiser, arrived Monday on a visit to the Venezuelan port of La Guaira, local media reported.

The Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, is accompanied by Udaloy-class destroyer Vice Admiral Kulakov from the Northern Fleet and the Ivan Bubnov tanker.

During the visit, which will last until August 29, the crews of the Russian warships are expected to meet with their Venezuelan colleagues and bestow honors to former President Hugo Chavez, who died of cancer on March 5.
Before the visit to Venezuela, the naval task force stopped at the ports of Cuba and Nicaragua. After August 29, the warships are scheduled to visit Spain and Portugal.

Russian Warships Dock at Venezuelan Port for Visit | Defense | RIA Novosti (http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20130827/182983285/Russian-Warships-Dock-at-Venezuelan-Port-for-Visit.html)

See following for movements

Bosphorus | (http://turkishnavy.net/category/bosphorus/)

See following on the treaty

Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Turkish_Stra its)

[NutLoose]

Thanks,

Anyone notice when Sabre rattling and we are going to war talk was going on you couldn't get "Slimy Hague" and "call me Dave" off the Air.

Now their bubble is seemingly getting burst and their plan is falling apart with them having to bow to pressure from Parliament and the Country, they vanish from the Airwaves and shove "round peg in a square hole Clegg" on to the TV to avoid being made to look wrong, and Clegg couldn't even look straight at the camera but avoided eye contact.

Though one feels the only reason Labour are being so against it is they are trying to distance themselves from the own near historical balls up under the name of BLiar.

I know about Binary Weapons Coff, but would they be stored at separate facilities or on site? in which case would a few explosions mix them and disperse them for you?

..

[air pig]

Not true... If it was Sarin then it becomes more effective, (it evaporates more quickly and gets into the atmosphere), as temperature rises but, similarly, it becomes less persistent, (it is effective for less time)... So emergency workers could walk in quite easily as long as they stay away from any pools of it and the existence of pools would depend on the delivery method - pools would indicate a very primitive delivery.

Very true, but it does depend on the 'quality' of the Sarin loaded as a binary system it appears to be quite stable until the final mixing. If this is 'bathtub' Sarin the degradation I suspect will be far quicker and unstable.

So Simon Hughes was on the news saying they were just going to target the storage and production of CW's, pray tell how blowing seven shades of poo out of the site does not contaminate that site and release a cloud of the stuff into the atmosphere to drift downwind?
It would seem to me that the "coalition" may end up releasing more CW's onto the local populace than the incident that caused it in the first place.. That of course is if they haven't already been dispersed.


Hughes is a fool at the best of times and is probably maneuvering to stab his leader in the back (his normal position). His knowledge of anything military is I suspect about the level of a braindead slug, he'd rather disband the armed forces and usu the money for socially useful PC projects.

[captbod]

AA.

Not true... If it was Sarin then it becomes more effective, (it evaporates more quickly and gets into the atmosphere), as temperature rises but, similarly, it becomes less persistent, (it is effective for less time)... So emergency workers could walk in quite easily as long as they stay away from any pools of it and the existence of pools would depend on the delivery method - pools would indicate a very primitive delivery.


AA is correct in saying that Sarin is primarily a non persistent type of nerve agent and it is normally delivered in liquid form or as a gas. I would argue however that the ability to move around completely unprotected would be unwise especially in the immediate aftermath of an attack. As AA said if there were large concentrations of liquid in the vicinity then the local area and the area downwind of the concentration would present a substantial vapour hazard requiring at least the use of a respirator. This is assuming of course that we are talking about the real deal as opposed to the "Bath tub" type.

[air pig]

captbod

AA is correct in saying that Sarin is primarily a non persistent type of nerve agent and it is normally delivered in liquid form or as a gas. I would argue however that the ability to move around completely unprotected would be unwise especially in the immediate aftermath of an attack. As AA said if there were large concentrations of liquid in the vicinity then the local area and the area downwind of the concentration would present a substantial vapour hazard requiring at least the use of a respirator. This is assuming of course that we are talking about the real deal as opposed to the "Bath tub" type.

One did notice that the hospital staff did not have any form of PPE when the causalities were admitted and I suspect that the 'rescuers' were in the same position re equipment. So why were there no reported casualties in the hospitals due to clothing contamination. This leads me to postulate that 'bath tub' Sarin was used which being unstable evaporated and degraded quickly.

[langleybaston]

Hey, people, do I detect a touch of old fashioned democracy clicking in over the last 24 hours?

Jaw jaw is better than war war .................

my old mate Winston said that to me some time back.

[air pig]

AA

my old mate Winston said that to me some time back

Wasn't that Roosevelt or maybe Truman who also said 'walk softly and carry a big stick'

[langleybaston]

I think so, but he/ they didn't say it in my hearing.

However the first Duke of Wellington told me that

"if it is not essential to change, then it is essential not to change" ....... almost the definition of a conservative, which I used to be.

[air pig]

Here is a copy of the JIC report as published today.

/www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/235094/Jp_115_JD_PM_Syria_Reported_Chemical_Weapon_Use_with_annex.p df

Lord West the former Defence Minister on Sky demanding substantive evidence.

[Lonewolf_50]

I am now trying to gey my brain to see something clearly:

If Syria never signed the international protocol, what illegal thing have they done if they used chemical weapons, but didn't use it in a war against another nation? No, I don't think using poison gas on the citizens is right, nor moral, but I'd like a few more data points for understanding.

As noted by others, the last two years have seen plenty of dead citizens using conventional munitions. Is that illegal is some way?

Here's a thought: is it really "illegal" for there to be a civil war within a country? Think about that: no few nations have been born, or changed, for better and for worse thanks to a war within their own borders, both with and without international participation.

[Courtney Mil]

Captbod,

Yes, Sarin is non-persistent, regardless of what the journos say. It's very volatile and in the Syrian heat would not remain in liquid form for more than about half an hour - even in the cold it will only last some 7-10 hours.

NutLoose,

I'm Courtney, not Coff, Mate. :ok: I wasn't trying to be patronizing, sorry. As to your point, even if the precursors were stored on the same site, they still need to be mixed effectively. Blowing up storage tanks wouldn't do that very well. In any event, extreme heat helps break down most nerve agents.

AirPig,

Re the "bath tub" Sarin. The Russians decided that the Sarin used in the Aleppo CW attack back in March was not factory made as it did not appear to contain stabilizers. They used that 'fact' to claim that it had been made by the rebels. But those stabilizers are only there to extend the shelf life, not to make it more persistent. Again, given the temperatures, victims' contaminated clothing only poses a threat for around 30 minutes with Sarin. We also saw a lot of water being sprayed around in the videos of the latest attack. Water breaks Sarin down very effectively. So I don't think there was too much risk to unprotected rescuers and doctors, but I don't think that can be used to assess where it came from.

[Courtney Mil]

Lonewolf,

They did not sign the Chemical Weapons Convention, but they did sign the Geneva Protocol. Unfortunately that does prohibit the manufacture or stockpiling of CW, just its use, which some folks seem to think they have.

Syria is a member of the UN and, so, I guess they are bound by the existing resolutions. For example, UN Resolution 1540, which mostly about proliferation, but I haven't read the entire thing so there may well be bits in it about production, stockpiling and deployment.

Like you, just thinking.

[dead_pan]

Here's a thought: is it really "illegal" for there to be a civil war within a country? Think about that: no few nations have been born, or changed, for better and for worse thanks to a war within their own borders, both with and without international participation.

Under what auspices were the various protagonists in the Bosnian conflict brought to book? There are UN conventions on human rights etc relating to not deliberately targeting civilians, genocide etc. I haven't read the legal justification yet but perhaps it relates to the fact the Syrian leadership has knowingly broken these.

Cameron has a point - if we do nothing now, we in effect legitimize the use of CW. Tricky situation, as I can't imagine what we could possibly achieve through a limited strike, other than either maybe persuading Assad to be more careful or re-double his efforts using conventional forces.

The stakes are also getting very high with many players angling behind the scenes - Israel must be gearing up save they get drawn in (they could use our intervention as a final justification, if ever one was needed to go after Iran).

[langleybaston]

Quote: Cameron has a point - if we do nothing now, we in effect legitimize the use of CW

I disagree. Why are "WE" the world's policeman? Might as well say "if Switzerland does nothing .................."

Nothing to do with me, count me out, I am not into post-colonial policing, not any more I am not.

Too many potholes in roads round these parts, too few policemen, to squander assets and perhaps lives on foreign adventures to preserve our "status" as a "super power", seat on Security Council etc.

The country may just be wiseing up to the realities.

[500N]

Cameron is certainly worked up over not being allowed to do
what he wants to do.

I see he acknowledges the public not believing anything they are
told any more.

[Robert Cooper]

Statements from the UN are saying that their CW team is only out in Syria to determine if in fact an attack took place, not to determine who did it!

The whole political posturing game is turning into a circus.

Bob C

[Basil]

I don't see us striking Russia for using CW in London; or N Korea because of the way the Kims treat their nationals.

[langleybaston]

W H A T ???????

[500N]

Didn't Russia use some sort of Chemical Weapons in Georgia
when they squashed the uprising ?

[Ronald Reagan]

George Galloway and David Davis were brilliant in the commons today.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Langley:

I believe the London reference Basil made was to the assassination of that chap in london with the poisoned brolley or whatever it was.

[ORAC]

I believe the London reference Basil made was to the assassination of that chap in london with the poisoned brolley or whatever it was. I believe it was in reference to the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisoning_of_Alexander_Litvinenko). That was radioactive rather than chemical, bit I'll take the point as it's NBC.

[NutLoose]

Either way, I don't think the chap cared which it was.

The Russians have used "Chemical Weapons" in the past, there was the attempt to free those hostages using a none lethal gas, but it proved far from it.



Chemical Weapons in Russia: History, Ecology, Politics (http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/cbw/jptac008_l94001.htm)

[Interested Passenger]

if you take the law into your own hands doesn't that make you a vigilante? and how often are vigilantes found to have beaten up the wrong guy?

The UN is the nearest thing to the world court/police. unless they decide action is required, keep the hell away.

[ShotOne]

Dire as the situation there is, it's hard to see how it will be improved by lobbing missiles in. It's also striking to see just how little enthusiasm there is for this adventure even on a military forum!

[Basil]

George Galloway and David Davis were brilliant in the commons today.
Must try to find that.

p.s. Re my previous: Wasn't sure whether the murder of Litvinenko should be classified as N, B or C.

[Pontius Navigator]

Shot, are you implying that those in a military forum should be all in favour of lobbing their toys around?

The raison d'etre for British Servicemen is to prevent wars not cause them. However if needs be they would wish to be peace making forces rather than peace keeping ones.

Another lack of enthusiasm might be attributed to the continued cuts in capability.

[air pig]

Eclectic: There has always been a U2 detachment at Akortiri Don't know if its used as a transit point to the airbase at Al Dafra in the UAE. This is not new news, in fact if you look at pprune its been a subject over a number of years.

[Lonewolf_50]

Pointius, another PoV from the ranks would be

"If you are going to have me kill people and blow things up, and put my but in the vicinity of high speed lead, the least you can do is have a good reason to do so."

[air pig]

Basil:

Must try to find that.

p.s. Re my previous: Wasn't sure whether the murder of Litvinenko should be classified as N, B or C.

Technically it was R = radiological as in CBRN protection.

[ksimboy]

Couldn't Mr Cameron get the concrete evidence from the same chaps as Alistair Campbell did?

[air pig]

Lonewolf 50.

"If you are going to have me kill people and blow things up, and put my but in the vicinity of high speed lead, the least you can do is have a good reason to do so."

AND DAMN WELL PROVIDE ME WITH THE EQUIPMENT TO DO IT do you hear Blair/Brown in particular and now Cameron and Osborne, anything else I class as Acts against the State of which the armed forces are part. In past time this was classed as High Treason and the sentence was hanging drawing and quartering.

[smujsmith]

With the greatest respect, it seems to me that our great leader and his sychophants are busy turning this into the latest version of Corry/Strickly/big Brother. The whole political argument is being reduced to a popularity contest, mainly for people who have no idea of the "real" consequences of their actions. Unfortunately, whilst I have the greatest respect for my fellow PPruners, I doubt that many of our fellow countrymen even understand what is happening here or care. And who knows, maybe, the same people are saying "I'm looking forward to all those "exciting" arrival pictures of our Tomahawks". I'm just an old bloke who has been unlucky enough to live in a time when decency, honesty and integrity seems to have gone by the board. It's a very sad time to be an Englishman.

Smudge

[langleybaston]

there are few outbreaks of belief on this forum.

[Airborne Aircrew]

I'm afraid this knee jerk stuff is absolute proof of the ignorance of our "great leaders" when the subject of fighting any kind of war be it civil or uncivil raises it's head... They just don't appreciate that unless we resort to pillow fighting with our enemy this stuff isn't pretty. There isn't a "nice" way to die in war whether you are a civilian or a soldier/sailor/airman. In the past they have managed to curry up sufficient popular support to make themselves look good. I'm afraid I agreed with the decisions to go into Iraq and Afghanistan.

Two questions remain for me:

1. Why don't I think this potential conflict is a good idea?

2. What is the justification?

To answer the first question, I have seen our vaunted leaders management of modern conflict. Rather than the traditional way of fighting a war, (walk in, kick arse, leave them to sort out their problems), the new way of fight a war is walk in, kick arse, underfund and under-equip your fighting men, tie their hands with silly ROE's and make them stand around being shot at until they are hit. In short, for some reason we feel a need to coddle our defeated enemy at the cost of our soldiers. That's wrong. Additionally, sofar we have managed to pick the wrong side in Libya and Egypt, what makes them think they are going to get it right this time. Someone recently said, "Are we about to become Al Quaida's Air Force?"...

In answer to the second question: If whoever had put soldiers on the street to inject bleach into each individual who died would we have the same level of outrage? Probably not. Because you can't claim it as a WMD. The stupidity is that, nowadays, some half arsed domestic terrorist who makes a frigging pipe bomb is getting charged with making/using Weapons of Mass Destruction. Yet, amazingly, the same government charging those idiots is throwing 2000 pounders around willy nilly and without remorse. But, really, when it comes down to it, does it really matter how you kill someone. The result is the same. Dead people. When someone has killed many thousands of people with bullets and big bombs does it really matter if they pop a few with an unconventional weapon that ceases to be dangerous in a short time... Think of all the minefields in the world that still kill years after the conflict is over.

There's no good reason to go into Syria so, "if it ain't broke" let's not try to fix it lest is cost us many more brave men and women. There's no winning by throwing a few TLAM's around because whoever ends up winning will hate our intervention anyway.

So, to be blunt. They are a sovereign country, screw them, let them sort it out themselves then decide what to do with the resulting regime.

[air pig]

Eclectic:

e U2s.
Looks like these came via Fairford: FighterControl ? Home to the Military Aviation Enthusiast ? View topic - help with identifying aircraft in Wiltshire

Which for years has been a U2 transit airfield since OLUK was disbanded at least 10 years ago on paper. This is usually a monthly thing rotating aircrew and frames to Al Dafra and back to Beale in California. IT US NOTHING NEW, SO THIS IS NOT A NEW DEPLOYMENT.

For pity's sake stop looking for things and thinking they are signs of an increase in activity when its perfectly normal.

[air pig]

Eclectic: ballcocks

Very interesting traffic at Akrotiri and Dhekalia. With photos:

Includes B2, drones, 19 C130s on the ground:

US Stealth Drones, Bombers, C-130s In Cyprus? | Zero Hedge

For a starter the drone is an XB47, the B2 doesn't need to use Akrotiri, increased Hercules activity, deploy aircraft, you require stores, personnel, specific equipment and more importantly ammunition. the latter can only be carried in a very specific way.

[Martin the Martian]

That first picture is the X-47 demonstrator. And having never been to Cyprus and therefore very unfamiliar with the place, the background doesn't fit the descriptions I have seen.

And why would B-2s be deployed to Cyprus, which is not a designated FOB for the type?

I detect more than a hint of BS here.

[air pig]

MtM:

He's been doing this for days.

AP.

[

[NutLoose]

To answer the first question, I have seen our vaunted leaders management of modern conflict. Rather than the traditional way of fighting a war, (walk in, kick arse, leave them to sort out their problems), the new way of fight a war is walk in, kick arse, underfund and under-equip your fighting men, tie their hands with silly ROE's and make them stand around being shot at until they are hit. In short, for some reason we feel a need to coddle our defeated enemy at the cost of our soldiers. That's wrong. Additionally, sofar we have managed to pick the wrong side in Libya and Egypt, what makes them think they are going to get it right this time. Someone recently said, "Are we about to become Al Quaida's Air Force?"...

Unfortunately it's the Politicians "Call of Duty" form of warfare, sitting at home in a comfy armchair watching the "game" unfold on the big telly in the corner. Safe in the knowledge you are safe from it effecting your day to day life, whilst bringing out rules based on some sense of fairplay that get people killed while falling over to be seen as Politically correct.

It's only when they finally go up against some Bast*rd big enough that fires back and missiles start dropping in Westminster and Downing Street will the likes of Hague finally get the message as he fills his pants.

Iraq was a classic when Bush declared the war over, problem was they didn't get the agreement of the other side on that. Neatly when things like that happen, those that carry on their war either home or away suddenly become "terrorists"

[orgASMic]

Eclectic, do you read the threads or just blindly post drivel? Your rock solid source @drroymurphy is a fantasist at best, as anyone who has actually been to Akrotiri could tell you just from those tweets.

[SASless]

AA,

Quit sugarcoating it....tell us what you really think!


But.......AMEN Brother!:D:D

[Airborne Aircrew]

Nutloose:

Iraq was a classic when Bush declared the war over, problem was they didn't get the agreement of the other side on that. Neatly when things like that happen, those that carry on their war either home or away suddenly become "terrorists" As you say they'd be terrorists. The question is, since the mission was accomplished, (the removal of SoDamnInsane), why were our soldiers left there to be terrorized. Let them terrorize each other. Leaving our men and women there is, really, allowing ourselves to be terrorized by proxy. That's the dumbest idea in the world. Had we left they'd have been so busy squabbling amongst themselves they wouldn't even know where the West is if we tattooed a map on their stupid foreheads...

[Airborne Aircrew]

SAS:

I'm being as nice as I can right now...

Thank you... :ok:

[edwardspannerhands]

From the Whitehall edition of Pravda:

Typhoons deploying to Cyprus (http://www.raf.mod.uk/news/archive/typhoons-deploying-to-cyprus-29082013)

[Courtney Mil]

George Galloway and David Davis were brilliant in the commons today.

Sorry, would that be the same George Galloway that always comes out in favour of everything that is completly against Britain's interests. The anti-British MP?

I heard his speach today and, whilst it was very well constructed and delivered (as always), it carefully sidestepped all the points that had been made, along with most of the facts. He is very good at taking people in - anything to win the votes from people that other MPs and candidates neglect to target, for whatever reason.

Go fish.

[Courtney Mil]

AA, you put your argument well. I would only take issue with one of your points (the rest seem pretty sound).

if it ain't broke" let's not try to fix it

Mate, it is broke.

[Lonewolf_50]

There's no good reason to go into Syria so, "if it ain't broke" let's not try to fix it lest is cost us many more brave men and women. There's no winning by throwing a few TLAM's around because whoever ends up winning will hate our intervention anyway.

So, to be blunt. They are a sovereign country, screw them, let them sort it out themselves then decide what to do with the resulting regime.
OK by me.
FWIW, I found the answers (http://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/518820-syria-24.html#post8020021)to my questions a few pages back that Courtney Mil tried to help me answer. The strictly legal basis really isn't there.

AA, I like your bit about "are we to become Al Qaeda's Air Force in Syria?"

That would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
Our pols don't even understand the question as asked.

[Courtney Mil]

Linerider,

It wasn't the Americans, it was actually Daily Mail foreign agents. It was a move designed to create the ultimate scoop for the DM. And to think, they almost got away with it. Problem now is the pending reprisal CW attack by the CIA on the DM offices, sanctioned by the Government under the special relationship.

LoneWolf,

Our pols don't even understand the question as asked.

It's OK. Neither do ours.

[Lonewolf_50]

Courtney, I had to go back and see what linerider posts, but when I did, it made your post a joy to read.

Goodonya, mate! :ok:

[NutLoose]

They just LOST THE VOTE... no's have it 285 against 272

[BEagle]

Hardly surprising, given Clegg's performance in that speech of his.....:hmm:

[glad rag]

Sorry, would that be the same George Galloway that always comes out in favour of everything that is completly against Britain's interests. The anti-British MP?

I heard his speach today and, whilst it was very well constructed and delivered (as always), it carefully sidestepped all the points that had been made, along with most of the facts. He is very good at taking people in - anything to win the votes from people that other MPs and candidates neglect to target, for whatever reason.

Go fish.

UuzlwFXeW3A

[TEEEJ]

Linerider

The e-mails were faked. Britam was hacked but the hacker obviously created the 'smoking gun' e-mail using the header from another e-mail found during the hack.

Everything is the same including the message ID and the time stamp. The only thing changed is the date.

Sirian Issue.eml - Pastebin.com (http://pastebin.com/QkWVJuDC)

Iranian Issue.eml - Pastebin.com (http://pastebin.com/Di2Fwtuj)

The hacking of Britam Defence, a company run by former SAS chiefs with many Middle Eastern clients, is being investigated by cybercrime and counterterrorism specialists at Scotland Yard. The security services are also believed to be studying the breach.

Iran ?faked British chemical weapons plot? | The Sunday Times (http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article1206917.ece)

Syrian e-mails hacked on Britam Defense? - News - Politics - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Video (http://voiceofrussia.com/2013_01_31/Syrian-e-mails-hacked-on-Britam-Defense/)

[500N]

Cameron won't be able to strut the stage for a few more days
with his mate Obama, if he gets to do it at all.

[hanoijane]

Sorry, would that be the same George Galloway that always comes out in favour of everything that is completely against Britain's interests. The anti-British MP?

You may well consider him to be so, but if you'd followed his advice you wouldn't have been part of the stunningly successful Iraq adventure, would you?

George might be bad, and he might be mad, be he has an annoying track record of being right too.

[essexlad]

Forgive my simple thinking as im only a small cog in the very big wheel. But can you even attack a chemical weapons store should we decide to get involved?

[racedo]

They just LOST THE VOTE... no's have it 285 against 272

Not a shock as people remember Iraq war and what happened then.

CMD wanted a war to make his name.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Courtney Mil:

Mate, it is broke. Only if you're Syrian. If you aren't then what responsibility do we have to try to fix the internal squabbles of some other country? This time around we aren't even going in on the grounds that Syria are threatening in any way to use their WMD's externally, (the ones that most likely came from Iraq and maybe a few others they already had), we are planning on going in on the grounds that they allegedly used them against themselves... Sort of like beating yourself over the head with a cricket back and hoping someone will come along to stop you.

Personally, I'm fed up with fixing other people's crap. I have a phrase I use at work a lot. "A screw up on your part does not necessarily mean there's an emergency on mine"...

I think that applies here....

[Basil]

air pig,
Basil:

Quote:
Must try to find that.

p.s. Re my previous: Wasn't sure whether the murder of Litvinenko should be classified as N, B or C.
Technically it was R = radiological as in CBRN protection.
Much indebted.

[WE Branch Fanatic]

Peace in our time....

[air pig]

BBC reporting that Assad's SCUDs are being deployed from their barracks, sensible move, reduce any loss rate and maybe into more protected areas or as Sadam would have done into built up areas.

[Courtney Mil]

Glad Rag,

Re you video there. Sorry to be slow in rseponding - 47 minutes to watch.

Excellently briefed, scripted and delivered. All the evidence produced against him was "fake" and there was a lot of "you did it first", etc. about it. What a brilliant speaker. But it does nothing to change my opinion of him.

[Courtney Mil]

AA,

I don't disagree with anything you say there. But no one can deny, it is broke. My concern is that in today's global environment, nothing this big simply stays inside some imaginary boudaries and has no effect on the rest of the world. I'm not arguing one way or the other at the moment, unlike many here, I would like to see and hear more before I can even start to make my mind up.

I am not for action without knowing the facts so far and without considering the consequences, proposed action and desired end game.

I am not aggainst action until we have a decend assessment of what that may mean to whomsoever carried out this attack.

My cards on the table.

[glad rag]

Courts, I wouldn't wish to change any of your opinions, we are all our own men [now] ;).

However much as I have learnt to despise both politicians and those associated with revenue collection..... to quote someone much smarter than I...

"he is the complete opposite of our current invidious, emetic and hypocritical politicians and functionally illiterate masses who are told how to think by tabloids."

I don't agree with his politics <70%, but when he stands up and speaks out, [as on the question time program when he denounced the SNP for what they really are], people listen and hopefully open their eyes to the politicians BS.

cheers

gr.

[Courtney Mil]

I agree with that, GR.

[NutLoose]

Big question now is...

Now the UK's people have spoken in that we want no part of this, how does the USA now stand in regard to utilising UK Sovereign bases to launch such an attack from.. i.e Akrotiri

Posted on the BBC's website comments


what a great tw*et in light of the commons vote

Ian Bremmer, US political scientist and president of Eurasia Group research and consulting firm tweets: "Hard earned lesson for Obama on red lines: set them by yourself ...and you're left to enforce them by yourself."

[500N]

Nutloose

Would the US use Ak or even need to ?


The US has history of using UK bases to launch air raids from,
albeit from the UK itself so is it too far to stretch that to OS bases ?

[NutLoose]

I mean that in the past we have allowed UK bases both here and overseas to be used, due to the Vote does that in effect prevent that happening.

..

[tonker]

On one Hand I witnessed Milliband and his entourage of ex trots celebrating, and on the other coverage of an Air Force attack napalming a school.

Nobody politically will come out of this well, but if there is another attack resulting in large amounts of deaths, Milliband will be turned upon.

[500N]

NutLoose

Interesting question.

[The Sultan]

The UK should just surplus their whole "military" as irrelevant and rely on the French to protect them.

There are times that someone needs to go downtown to punish slaughter of innocents even if it is to send a message that they need to insure no one can use their WMDs without paying a price.

The Sultan

[NutLoose]

Personally I feel

Milliband is doing it for political reasons , it gives him the perfect chance to say ( come the next election ) we learnt from Iraq and refused to go down the BLair route, thus in one stroke they look like the good guys that are listening to the electorate and finally casting off some of the stigma of Iraq that has been hanging around their necks like excessive baggage. It also upsurps Cameron and makes him look like Son of BLiar, thus shifting the emphasis onto him, especially if it all goes pear shaped like it probably will.
Cameron and Hague are also coming over as looking indecisive with the frequent changes of tact as the proverbial carpet keeps getting pulled out from under them.

[Airborne Aircrew]

The Sultan:

There are times that someone needs to go downtown to punish slaughter of innocents even if it is to send a message that they need to insure no one can use their WMDs without paying a price.You seem to feel strongly about this and I applaud that. Can we therefore assume that, if I buy your rifle, ammunition and basic needs you will blaze a trail ahead of the rest of us or are you just having a bleeding heart moment that, should you ever actually be expected to bleed, you will weasel your way out of.

No response required, we all know your "do something to help them quickly but don't interrupt my latte when you do" type.

[tartare]

AA - cheap shot.
The guy was just making a point.
Some of us civilians would have dearly loved to serve - but may not have been able to for various reasons.
In my case - 14 prism dioptres of esophoria meant I couldn't fly commercially or in the military. Where possible many of us turn up to the dawn parades, say thank you, support those of you in uniform and remind our kids of how important the armed forces are.
And we watch videos like this Ian Pannell piece here on an alleged incendiary bomb hit (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-23892594)from fast jet on a Syrian school - to always remember what wars are like.

[Nervous SLF]

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[SASless]

If we do wind up sending brave young men and women into battle over this....in time Sultan will insult their service as he has so many times in the past.....and has been warned about doing several times. Matter of fact....he had a couple of vacations from here over that kind of conduct as I recall.

[tartare]

My apologies then if that's the case.
I wasn't aware of that history and I stand corrected.

[Pontius Navigator]

You can't get more popular opinion than on a local radio phone in. The callers were moderate and argued logically (it was before pub rise).

There was the odd Christian that thought we should step in to stop the slaughter of the innocents but the majority, while repressing sadness, took the view that it should not be the UK as one of the World police yet again.

[PowerDragTrim]

Cameron and Hague failed to get the vote partly because they did not convince Parliament that they could control the resulting conflict.
This is the point that all politicians fail on.
Who would have predicted that an assassination in the Balkans would lead to the deaths of 15 million people in Europe?
Obama made a loose statement on 'red lines' and he must now sort his own problems out and not drag us in as well.
Thank heavens that Parliament has shown some mettle at last.

[t43562]

Words are interesting. Being a 'policeman' is bad and watching someone getting beaten up in an alley is good as long as one is sad about it and says one cares. One might as well admit that one doesn't really care very much.

I suppose my view on all this is coloured by being from Zimbabwe and I admit that I'm a latte sipping civilian.

[Pontius Navigator]

Words are interesting. Being a 'policeman' is bad and watching someone getting beaten up in an alley is good as long as one is sad about it and says one cares. One might as well admit that one doesn't really care very much.

I suppose my view on all this is coloured by being from Zimbabwe and I admit that I'm a latte sipping civilian.

t, a New York policeman may feel very sad watching a video of someone getting beaten up in a different State and probably really does care, but is not about to jump in his patrol car and high tail it there.

The point that most of here hold is that we should not be a de facto world policeman. The UN has not appointed us as such so we have no rights to act as such.

While you, as a latte sipping civilian, (whatever that is) seem to both care and believe in intervention, many or your tea drinking compatriots are not.

[JagRigger]

Personally I consider we should get involved, but not with the current shaddow of a military force we now have.

If we are to watch the slaughter of the innocents, it is the fault of the asset strippers who have reduced our armed forces to the level where we cannot commit.

[Courtney Mil]

Listening to the post-mortem of the vote on the radio this morning, mythoughts turned from the effect this will have on the politicians (like I care)and on future events in Syria to the effect this will have on the future of ourarmed forces. If we now live in an era when, according to commentatorsthis morning, public and political opinion is so fervently against the UK’smilitary involvement in anything outside of our own territorial waters (or,perhaps the UK ADR) I wonder how long it will be until someone starts to reflecteven more seriously on the need to spend £33.8Bn on deployable forces.

I’m assuming that no one is questioning the need for effective self-defence (well, maybe George Galloway),but it’s hard to ignore the public reluctance to engage militarily in any othercapacity in the wake of Iraq and Afghanistan. There was reasonable support for a limited involvement in Libya, but noone wants another Vietnam.

So given that, we may now find it much more difficult to justify therequirement for a sizeable offensive capability. What, for example, is the point of us buying intoa platform such as F-35, ships such as the new carriers, thousands ofdeployable troops and all their gear when it seems that money is needed forbenefits, schools, the NHS and HS2?

Any thoughts?

[mymatetcm]

About time all MPs children aged 18 and over had to do military service as a prerequisite when holding office, maybe we would get a more thought through approach to war like policy. If the Royal Family can participate fully in the military and on operations why can not politician’s kids? How many currently populating the services?
We don’t have the man power or the resources to become involved in this issue no matter how distressing recent events have been, and what did we do in Rwanda to stop the slaughter?
It would also be interesting to see the AAR assets of the RAF cope with towlines in the Region if we could provide any.

[charliegolf]

AA wrote:

There's no winning by throwing a few TLAM's around because whoever ends up winning will hate our intervention anyway.

Puma Crewman- not so daft eh?

Nobody (sane) likes what is happening there. But you have to toss a coin to decide who the least nutty side is in this, and the outcome will be exactly as AA describes. Let the Arab League sort it out; or Israel when they get pissed off enough. Ask yourself why the former IS NOT acting to sort it out- and be led by the answer.

CG

[Pontius Navigator]

and what did we do in Rwanda to stop the slaughter?

We followed America's led and refused to acknowledge that it was genocide. Clint has said more recently that it was one of his biggest regrets that he did not intervene. One might think cynically that he could say that once he was out of office.

Courtney - we may now find it much more difficult to justify the requirement for a sizeable offensive capability. . . . when it seems that money is needed forbenefits, schools, the NHS and HS2?

Any thoughts?

The Russians had the size of it when they declared they had Peace Making Forces not Peace Keeping Forces.

Defence policy has never really featured in Government manifestos. Yes, we declared a Peace Dividend, yes, they declared there would be a Strategic Defence Review (and another one) but what about a very basic policy.

Does Britain want a Peace Making Force or a Peace Keeping Force?

In FI, GW1 and GW2, we clearly employed Peace Making Force. Post GW2 and in Afg the role has been largely Peace Keeping, albeit a robust form of Peace Keeping.

Translate that to Syria today and we would have to commit a force that has largely been in a Peace Keeping role for the past 10 years. Would it fit?

[Mechta]

Nutloose:

Quote:
Iraq was a classic when Bush declared the war over, problem was they didn't get the agreement of the other side on that. Neatly when things like that happen, those that carry on their war either home or away suddenly become "terrorists"
As you say they'd be terrorists. The question is, since the mission was accomplished, (the removal of SoDamnInsane), why were our soldiers left there to be terrorized. Let them terrorize each other. Leaving our men and women there is, really, allowing ourselves to be terrorized by proxy. That's the dumbest idea in the world. Had we left they'd have been so busy squabbling amongst themselves they wouldn't even know where the West is if we tattooed a map on their stupid foreheads...

Someone had to keep the locals out of the way whilst Bush and his cronies plundered the oil and the the best bits of Baghdad real estate.

[FantomZorbin]

CM & JR

I totally agree with your points. Those who have been so quick to emasculate the Armed Forces should consider the speed with which our 'capability gaps' have been highlighted to the rest of the world and left us found wanting. We are viewed as being an embuggerance to any military foray as we can never achieve without the aid of superior forces.

Regrettably, any credibility the UK may have had has evaporated in a puff of party political hot air. The Emperor's new clothes have long gone.:(

[Dengue_Dude]

I've surprised myself.

I actually agree with what the politicians have decided (whatever their motivation) If someone gives me a drink when I'm thirsty, just to make themselves feel better, I still get the drink.

This country does not need another war. Shouldn't even be in the sandpit now.

Also, 'we' the nominally Christian 'West' can't be seen piling in to 'murder' good Muslims - they're busy blowing each other away. Sunni vs Shiite or vice versa - let them get on with it. Before the bleeding hearts give it 'what about the kids?', it didn't bother us overmuch in WW2 when each side was happy to bomb cities. It's utterly tragic, but it won't go away if we pile in to shore up tottering politicians' careers.

I truly believe that their is enough resource in the Middle East to sort their own **** out. WE are not the world's policemen despite what our 'special' allies seem to think. The billions spent in the Sandpits (various) could have paid for a lot of the infrastructure that's being dismantled for lack of funds.

NIMBY - bet your ass.

[Alber Ratman]

Glad the MPs have done what most people in the country want (and most people actually serving in our armed forces want too), and that is not to get involved unless its absolutely proven without question who did what. I would like to see one year of my life where NO British serviceman has been put in danger in a conflinct or on an operation that really has little or no reason in justification of defence of this country. Strong capable defence forces to deter and use if required yes, not to throw at every corner of the middle east for political smarty points..

[BEagle]

This country does not need another war. Shouldn't even be in the sandpit now.

Also, 'we' the nominally Christian 'West' can't be seen piling in to 'murder' good Muslims - they're busy blowing each other away. Sunni vs Shiite or vice versa - let them get on with it.

So, to paraphrase, you're saying "It's just w*g on w*g - who gives a $hit?"

:hmm:

[bcgallacher]

At last a house of commons with some common sense. They thwarted the ambitions of Cameron and his poodle Foreign Secretary to put more British military lives at stake for no benefit to Britain.You would be hard pressed to find any ordinary citizens who would be willing to sacrifice one British soldiers life for Syria.After the wonderful results of intervention in Afghanistan,Iraq and Libya is our Prime Minister really that dim that he does not know when to come in from the rain.As an aside - how many of those MPs that voted for military action have sons or daughters in the armed forces? We are cutting back on funding for the poorest in our society yet Mr Cameron wants to fire cruise missiles at a million dollars per copy at the Syrians - I think he needs a rapid change of priorities.The good thing that comes from this is that his chances of being the next Prime Minister are about zero.

[NutLoose]

Mr Cameron wants to fire cruise missiles at a million dollars per copy at the Syrians

It could have been taken out of the Overseas Aid Budget :E


..

[4ROCK]

Not many moons ago I was witness to some pretty horrific 'atrocities' over in Bosnia - a similar situation to the Syrian tribal disaster we see unfolding. The UN were as impotent as they currently are - but until someone with big clanging cajoles takes charge of that organisation we will continue to have all this dreadful 'posturing' by Obama, Cameron, Hague etc. every time some despot comes under a bit of 'popular' pressure.

I really hope this will be a step change in the current British military crusade mentality - and yes, if we can now scale down our military inventory to reflect our new 'policy' then great - we might save some cash to spend on the NHS and win a few more Eurovision Song Contests!

[Ronald Reagan]

I just saw a piece on RT saying that neither Jordon, Iraq or Egypt will allow military action against Syria to be launched from bases in their nations or over flights of their territory.

My faith in MPs has been restored a little, I am proud of this country for not doing anything. I hope the French people can stop Hollander and the American people can stop Obama.

Even though Labour did the right thing, what a bunch of hypocrites they are. I suppose one can say they went with public opinion which is a good thing. But I don't like them and never will. Good seeing the look on some of the Tory faces though, ha ha!

[SRENNAPS]

and yes, if we can now scale down our military inventory to reflect our new 'policy'

Me thinks that we had already done that :ugh::ugh:

[Pontius Navigator]

the current British Politians' military crusade mentality

[goudie]

Never thought I would see the day when MP's actually did something right...for whatever reason.
'Call me Dave' is well out of touch with popular opinion.

[dead_pan]

Yep - shame they didn't have the moral conviction to do the same 10 years or so ago.

America has got itself in a proper tangle over this. I can quite imagine the conversations with their Sunni allies in the ME "So you overthrew the Iraqi regime for allegedly possessing WMD, and supported the overthrow of Gaddafi who was just about to start the industrial slaughter of his people, yet in Syria, where Assad is flagrantly using WMD and killing his people in their 10s of thousands, you decide to what, exactly?" The ghosts of of previous justifications loom large...

[Kerosene Kraut]

We'd need to get the UN going again. If it can be blocked all the time it's useless. Bring back diplomacy for your daily dictator business and keep the military as a true last option.