Here it comes: Syria

[Pontius Navigator]

I would imagine some of the plan revisions will be in respect of basing rights, or lack of them, RoE, force levels as well as target sets - Air Defence, offensive, logistics, infrastructure and so on.

In one exercise as we neared a political show-of-force demonstration we had expected the MNC to select a target and make an appropriate noise.

He didn't.

He selected a large target set, far in excess of what we expected, as he wanted to have a firm military effect as well as a simple political one.

I imagine there will be a similar dichotomy between your political and military leaders.

[Pontius Navigator]

I see there is some debate about supporting the rebels. There is only a hard core - 15% - of baddies and the rest are goodies they say. Or whatever statistic they pluck out of the air.

So, let's see. There are two sides in conflict - Assad and the rebels.

Assad is knocked out of the game and there are two sides in the conflict - goodies and baddies.

The baddies are knocked out of the game and there are two sides in the conflict - goodies and not so goodies.

Now, where have we seen that before?

[Ronald Reagan]

Interesting video of a Syrian woman begging McCain to not support military action:-
Emotional Woman Attacks John McCain on Syria at Town Hall - 9-5-2013 - YouTube (http://youtu.be/hzH7BxFEzDs)
Also this on RT:-
'Visit to Syria Christian village could be one-way ticket as rebels rage' - YouTube (http://youtu.be/FSkNruTAtyQ)

[Eclectic]

Russia sending a "special cargo" to Syria: ??? "??????? ??????????" ???????????? ? ????? | ??? ??????? (http://ria.ru/defense_safety/20130906/961251320.html)

Is this S-300? If so Israel will go apoplectic and will strike.
Is this Tor? Far more likely. Won't annoy Israel and is specifically designed to take out Tomahawks.

Obama should have attacked last weekend.

[Lonewolf_50]

Lone Wolf, what I suspected and we are of like minds then. Except you need one helluva lot of boots that western powers don't have and the civil populace doesn't want and the host country hates.
Yep. In a nutshell. :ok:

[Pontius Navigator]

Well our politicos, yours and mine, seem very keen to get in there and kick ass.

Well rather get us in there and kick ass while they give us their full support.

[NutLoose]

Ne're daring deeds,
Nor battles fought,
Teach those to come,
It's all worth naught.

NL

[Airborne Aircrew]

One wonders why we haven't heard a peep from this "lady"...

http://www.pprune.org/data:image/jpeg;base64,/9j/4AAQSkZJRgABAQAAAQABAAD/2wCEAAkGBhQSERUUDxQUFRQUFhQUFRQQFBQUFBUUFBQVFBQUFBUXHCYeFxoj GRQUHy8gJCcpLCwtFR4xNTAqNSYrLCkBCQoKDgwOGg8PGCkfHBwpLCkpKSks LCwsKSkpKSkpKSkpKSkpKSkpKSwpKSkpKSkpLCksKSkpKSkpKSkpLCwpKf/AABEIAMMBAwMBIgACEQEDEQH/xAAcAAABBQEBAQAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAQIDBAYFBwj/xABMEAABAwICBQYKBggFAgcAAAABAAIDBBESIQUxQVFxBiJhgZGhBxMUMlSU sbPB0hYjJEK08CU1YnJ0gpLRQ1JTc/EzojREZJOywtP/xAAZAQADAQEBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAQIDBAX/xAAjEQEBAAIBBAIDAQEAAAAAAAAAAQIRAxIhMVEEQRMycWEi/9oADAMBAAIRAxEAPwDecn+T1KaSmJpqYk08BJdBCSSYWEkktzNyr/0bpPRaX1eH5E3k6fsdN/DU/uI1eL002qf0bpPRaX1eH5E08nKT0Wl9Xg+RXcaTEnpO1L6O0notL6tB8qQ8n aX0Wl9Wg+VXSUl0aG1E8naX0Wl9Xh+RIeT1L6LS+rw/IryTH2b/AOyy5OSYRpx4XKqDuT9L6LS9P2eEAdeBc6qoqXVHSUzj0U8AHbhyCs6R0gDl 93YNrrfDpXErtIkDWGjcMu/WV52fLllXdjx44o6qhgb50FK3hTwnvLQuPO6C+UMHVTwewNzUMjnSutGOjG7 4BXqTk8ALuLnE6ydx123KsZfuqsUqSsgxWdT0/QfERW6wW5LV6LoaV7Remps//Tw/KqA5Oxa2q/DR+LN26h+dSvx4TcduuzQNKf8Ay1L6vB8if9HqX0Wm9Xh+RQU9XuIO+39l0Y JQQuvj5N9nHyYaVfo7S+i03q8PyJfo7S+i03q8HyK+hbsFD6O0votN6vB8iT 6PUvotN6vB8i6CEBQ+jtL6LTerwfIk+jtL6LTerwfIuihAc/6O0votN6vB8iT6PUvotN6vB8i6CEBz/o9S+i03q8PyI+jtL6LTerw/IughMOf9HaX0Wm9Xh+RH0dpfRab1eH5F0EIDn/R2l9FpvV4PkR9HaX0Wm9Xh+RdBCA5/0epfRab1eH5EfR2l9FpvV4PkXQSFAeGeESgjZpGZsccbWgQ2ayNjWi8ERNgB YZklCn8Jf6ym4Qfh4kKFx6/yfP2Om/h6f3EavErm8n3fZKb+Hp/csV+6aTroxJhckumDyUXTQoaioDRziozymM3VY49V0kfJ2bVxtJ6XGoeaO87 lV0jpkm+G9uj2DpWSr9IPkJzDWjIDEDbszJXk553OvTwwmMdCu02Acs3dw6g uW+dz83HXkFUbHx4n4D4q7o2LG8H7rT1IkW0WiqIBoy1LpFihpm2CnN9a3iE RCmbJsUUuZyStjUqvhUmYWuu2+fT2hdGiqTYEHnXHBwJA7VSrXANz6uhVNHV 1nWOw96qXVlYZT6bcFKmRPuAQnr0Y8+wJUITIJbISgIBLJFIIidiY9mSASyR OQQgGoQhACEiEAJEpSJh4p4Sv1lNwg/DxIR4Sv1lNwg/DxJFC49a5Pn7JTfw9P7livXXO0AfslN/D0/uWK/dNJUXSIumA99hfcsvpCvLicwLHW7V+ehaKrPMPBYLSk1nG+e4ahbpP9lwfKt 7R2fGnmo6x8b/OeX22N5revWfYqL3tGprQBqyue/IdipVumDewyAysB7Fz46lz3WOoa/7LlxwtddykdCSUvNhqP5zK0uhIcLLnZqG/iuLQU23f7BsWhZSPDQIwNnOcbkcBlfhdaa0W9rM9c8eaG9Zz/sFLR6WLjZ9vzuXBqdHZWfJIXbyLHqAFv+U/RtOWkE35vRa9/jwVbVp3ayctzFxuy7lz6ercHeeP3SQe0bFcq4C6PWd65ElAHtDXtIz1tuHHo yOrggXGxf05UXgxDW0tJHWL+1ciKbnAg2xZg7Dvafau1RaIwxubc4HAjDJzi L3+9u3ArKB3i3mKQXacx1ZG3SPijzGOXavTtBzExi9rjcundZnk9L9WwtB6C dZABuL8N+5aVd3Fd4xwck1kclCaFIyO60QfTx3K6DWgKvE2ye56i1UmkjnKp KU8yprnAogqBIU8sSFivaTLJClTSUyCS6RCAEIQgPE/CV+spuEH4eJCPCV+spuEH4eJClceq6AP2Sm/h6f3LFfuqWgnDySm/h6f3LFdDU0i6LpSExz7BFGivFwshpfRvOd2k/BaiSc9A45+xZvTmkGtDi4j2X+K4Pk5S6dvx8bHnulYbOsO9EcYYADrJAA1a9 vYlqdIPe8nJo/ZABI2XOtQxwOLgTrOrr1KcfGm19tLoc3PWVroRksro2HCbbQV3PLDY9Czt7t cYt1MQyyFlUjfiNmjJtrnpKqVNcX80XIGu2zeEwxOIsxxbfY21r9YTl22d5z 8/wBm1r7lAx4vnhuMxfaNhG9cciU80ji4aj021hOmiLWjnFxG094y1BFpb3Wia 8EfnNYbTTfr32zwvBHBzQfaV2oNI3HN61m9JVX18l8+d15ZEd3cnjdsOSd25 5M1F4wCCCDccdvx7StXCy46FiOSlWDkXXB4X3js+K28TsIyPUdo4711cOX/AC4eXHumESlLlE6VMMi2YpTMmGYqMuShyZHB5TgUzGmF6CTYkhkUN0t09A4l NRdIqBboSXSXQDkiS6EB4r4Sv1lNwg/DxIR4Sv1lNwg/DxIUqepaBP2Sn/h6f3LF0BIuboE/ZKf+Hp/csV66pB5emSnLJISkdextrU5TcVje7jaRrH23cQFjdKEvOZJ6TtWu0pSuOs5 cf7LNVkLG5uN+heNlvq7vXw1rs4T4Q3M5nXfYAnaH0lEJSJi1ptkZDZu24zy 3KHSc5OrLO/ZqC4lczNdWE3NVllem7bqi0hE+Q+JeHtDrXF7X6/auwRfLf/wvM9BVJZJlt1jhn7Lr0qllD2gjiFnyY9NaceW4oVkkkQGANI1XdcBvS62xXN BxTTsDmuiGZGQcRlexBvqNlZLbqBtIGm7btOu7HOZnvs02vmUTS+/06zdETZfWRC7cXmk2O4561wdIPnZOIrxOBbiLg118ydl9w1q2DlbFJYZDnvv Y69uezXdJS0DWXLRmTcucS5xOq5ccymWsp5pG04bxOs8FkNIc4ucP85N+JJH tWk5Q1/ioXEec+zGcTt6hc9SzzXAgjoHcpl0zy7reg60scL6u5ej6OrMbQWnqOpYXQ1 KyXEx3NcCcJ7LgrR6HaY3YT0W3EXsVXHlZkz5ZLGoZJdPxKCLbx+CfdelPDz 6kxoxJl0XTI/Ei6ZdF0A/ElxKO6LphJiRdMukBQD7oumXRdAPui6ZdF0B4z4ST+kpuEH4eJCb4Rz+kpuE H4eJKpXHqGgT9lp/4en9yxXbqhoI/Zaf+Hp/csV26pmddDtSbdF0rNiXTN6axt16j0lZSscT5xsOn4b16TU0jXizhf29qyGk +R0uI+Ks4HVidY9eS4M/jWXcd/H8ia1WOqDc9GwLnVA519gHdqWwrOQdSG3YWOdtAcQeDSRY9yyFbSSQuLZ2lj tzxhNujoV44WeRc5fCGCTA9rtzge/8AsVt9HVBjOH7utvDd1LCPhJF7WHTlfpt8VsqZ2KNp2gDvCjljTirSQ1QJsf yVaeW61nGutrT/ACyQai1w6TYrB0RoXtaNduCSWZoas4dKSbWDrcLKeiDpCMZy1lPYyu/DO8oNL+NnwtPNi5v85849gt1FT6KOdtpNh1/my4lTo50EjmuHODiLHaLmx+K1XJjRZc4OIIANusJ5T0x37dfROiyx7ri+dj1 HJw3bupaGCiOK+dunMqzTU1hmM9dwrYyXVjwxx5c1OYnYky6W66tOY/Ei6ZdF0wkui6ZdF0A+6Lpt0l0A+6Ey6W6AddLdR3RdAPukum4kXQHjfhH/AFjNwh/DxISeEU/pGbhD+HiQpXHp2gj9lp/9iD3LFdxLn6CP2Wn/ANiD3LFdxKkJAUXTAEmJIJLpMSgkqmtIDnNBOYDnAEgayASsjyo8IbIOZTYZ JNrzmxvC3nHu4oONq59hc6hrJyA4lcXSHKOib/1pYHEbLCUj+kFeRaU5QzVBvO9z+gk4RwaMh2Ki+RTauYvRdO8uaAsLWU/jjfIOYImZbSfOt0W27FWojfYG3scLdTb54R0DV1LAMIxtxebcX4XF+662XJ+ tDw5t+cxzm9JAccJ7PYuXn8Ov481XdEQIzUMlJuJVmM2UrLLl27LFWHR2/PiulSR2KY09X53KVpsEqNErtFtls4izgcnC1wd4uq9BytZTyGnrMIsA5szGk Ah1zaVgvhPSMugJNM8oY6WIF5u9wJZGDznG+RO5u8+1eXVmkHSyOkkN3ONz8 ANwAy6l1cEu9/Tk59a19voGkrWSNxRPa9u+NwcOu2pTYl4BozTEkDw+F5Y7e06+gjUR0FehaC 8JrXWbVtwn/UjF2/zM1t4i/BdrhuLfYkXVamq2yNDo3Ne06nMII7QpcSaUmJF1GHJcSAkui6ZdF0A+6XEo7 ougH4kYky6LoB5KLpl0XQR90t1HiRdAeP8AhFP6Rm4Q+4iQm+EQ/pGbhD7iJClpHpWg3fZaf/Yg90xXbrk6Eq2+TQZ6oIPdMVzytu9PcQsmptll271lNPcvWR3ZT4Xuzu8+YD 0D7/s4qpy85R4GiKJ3OcCXkG1mHIN/mz6h0rzmWe6mdmnmRc0xpqSVxdI4ucdp3bhuHQuRjuUVL8+CSLens9JsQGvs SY7qFjrlS3spXA85fnWrD618U7nxmxxE9Fib2I2jNVMSmrvOvvbGe2Nvxups 2cuvDUUXLlhFpmOad7OcOy9/aurT8r6bbJbi1w+C84ISWWV4Ma1nyMnpk3LelaMnl37jHH22HeuLV8u3yEMp 24MRt4x9nOA2kN1CwzzvqWNDVYgNmud0YBxfe5/pDv6gicOMF58r/h9ZWGSRz3EkuN8zc2+6OyyjuoiU4nJbyaYb2exykjlsq7SlxKidzRem5IXYo XuYduE5H95up3Wt5oTwjtdZtU3Cf9SMHCf3m6x1di8siep2TIKzb36Cpa9oc xwc05hzTcHrUmNeR8lOVTqZ4DiTE4jG3d+23cR3r1Vk4IBBBBFwQdYOYIVbZ WaT4kuNQ4kuJPZJcSMSrsnB1EG24p+JIJsaTEosSMSYTY0YlFiRiQSXEkxKL GlxIG3kvhCP6Qm4Q+4jQm+EA/pCXhD7iNChpPDUUFQBTwYcz4qH3bV0C8Wub9S52ioR4iH/AGovdtVblFpc08JLTznXYy+8jM9Q+C8zqty1G2oxPKCu8ZPK4asRDT+y3mt9 i5GPPj7UrnqPFmvRnaJNc65T3usExgzRK65QZ8RsEt00pwCAcFNVaozvjb/2uez/AOoUTtSmlF4ozuMrOxzXj3hSpqpSFOKQhUkimqeaGN2gYnfvSAHuZgHalo4Q 54DvNF3P/caMTu0C3EhRTSlzi52txLjxJuUvs0ae4piVyZFBSgpAhAOaU5r1GEjSmS5DM tpyS07cYJHeYMr3PN2AW3LBwuzXQ0RWeLla7YHZ9LfvDsus8+8Dd19XM+zoC bHWATYKm3TUzSMbje2eepd6ophIwtDi0HMOZlwXGreTBc9tnkt+/e1+pcM5d+R00/RE4dIcLnXdrABy6Su/JT286V2XFVtHaPjh8y4NrEka+KvOc38hH5rPA6EbJQC3603OoG+adJO3HhMp DnbL27E0Paba+zUoTSxl1yBcHXbaj8+RdCyKcjMyuIGoXzVD6QjnBshuNQOW Q+K6McDTtB6yoX6DiJvgbffcqpz32PxuXNylkB5hOrirejNPPe1xkcW4bam3 Oe4K/HoxrRzWBNjoSDk0C+66L8i/Q6K865bE+WyXdc2hztb/AAY0JvLWMitlvui9zGhdOOdslPTYaKm+ohvsii921Y7ltXYpw3Yxg7XG5Ps7 Fp9GRnyeI6h4uO2/zG5rD8pqjFUyW+6Qz+gAE9t1ycE3yX/BHKc5NBzQ5RYl6Ck7DkVG3WlvkiMJkla1StamsatJyI5N+WVbI3ZRNvJM8mw bDHYvJcchfJt/2uhGhtwHsU7Yvqf3ZB/3sP8A+a91+iFM7SMcxhg8mFCXljWMdDiD7XAAwu5jiQei6q1fIWilfSxCNjH zkzvNJ41kL6eMPLS0k2a76yLVnzjsRS28MMSaWL2HTXgtpR4oRulgklqBExj 5Y5vGRYudKy2Ysy7szlax1rkad8FjYnBkE0z5XSNjjZNSyRxyOcdlQOYAG4n E7mmwJTLbzwR4YSdsjsA/cZZzz1uMY/lcqbmr0TTPgtqWmNsb4JLEQ4RIWOY4Ave5wkAyLi83G8Lj6e8G9dSROmniAi ZbE9kkbwLkNFwDfMkbNqUVtkE5yCErtSKCApyhKZjLeCQTJEt7przmgHwnNT RO1qCEqSPWgPVeSUzZqZhcedH9W7q80/0kdhXWNGCeaVh/BxpUMmdG/wA2Ru3/ADt5w7sQXo7m8BwXm8uPTkuaURSW2p5pRdXS4DYl8b0ZrM1JtIN6d5EN/YFaebpr7oCB1IDt7lINHD/NZK4H/hNxnLI8UGcaT9r2qN1L+12lL4w3zChlBvqvxRsPN+XDLV0vCL3MaE3lv/42XXqi9zGkXfh+sZ1qKOqa2jZI7IMhjPHDGPbZeXzSEkuOskk8SbnvK0OlK4 ikjZfzmxi37OBrj8FnCo4MdbvsoYXJ0LNp6lG4KWIc0dq6lB5T4mJls1YY1N KRrVsOTHJGonhLxNHTQSu8VinldG2dzQTgDR54Fna8sjuKycQW+Zy6pTSU0U 1H42SlY9kYe8eTuLwBjkZrccr233z3USpPyNqIqZlQyVpE0xpmtge+77vdEC HjmujOE6zaxC6lHWaWpXmMse40kbms+qbO2LGxpa0OYCbFrRYE7lc0R4UWM8 hhZjhghBbUnAx4kGEWwNFyBjucsxfatXorlBDNHUugljdLPUucGeUeTS+KaG Qsc0kYgcMYIFs8WxFJ5/o/wkzQCnjqIGSGlc4xmQvjlGNr2EG/Q87NgVscu6aWZsslLMBG8zSNFZNIzGbtY6KNxDWvxvBGqwDlt9E0rJIKgV4d eqnNIzx7mSvbhiwMb4xgseeJSCNp13UknJujYJGmCBwp6eFhJp/GAykOs57Ixie62E5Z8/pStEee8seXUFZHBThkrmMlD31FU2MzCPEbsYI9Ywutc5nCNZzXE8JvKllbVl 9OXeJbHHGwOBbfDdxJaf2nHsWw0Tomiqq6SkfTQi8BdHLTxVMGGQXJJjkcDq c05i1x0rCcsfI4pGw0TS8Qc2WeRzj4+RvNdhZfCxmLcM+AzAyxSgoKalVQlk yQKUpj0ghhdbJSvKrXzCuU9Tgcx9gcJzBF7jaOy6ASMqRpzRVQYHlozAN2ne w5tP8ASQmgoC9o2q8XK1w+64O7Dc9117HDWjDzc+jZxJXiLjYgr1LQtQJIGO JyLG2truBZ3eFxfKnijbVQSg5OtxBuD0J0kzNh1my5MIyUzn3tvH5C5JVyui JG7Cku053XLEudtyHSAWAvnfXtKe9+B1bdRs7ba0eWtJzXJacuvX0qR7uaLa 9vwRs9un5ay+pIKljiuLFWXyvmTl1a09sZve+Q2J3sq2xg+Xjh5fLbdD7iNC pcsT9sk4R+6Yhd+H6z+Mq4M1ZjjhA+7HY333I/+Iaq5KZD5o4JxWskhyGPKsAauAVVysQeaLphLGFKFGEt0wma5arwb6IbU6Rg jkaHMBc97XC7S1jCbEHWMWHJZEOV7Rmm5ad/jKaR0b7EYmGxsbXGrMZDsVJr1es0FQ1NbHTQRUlnzPDn0ckrZo44Wuc9skds IJcA3EDtyVSLwZQvD5Y55I2tq3wQh0RnDhG/AC4ssRd7XjFqAtdYPk1yuloqjyiIMdIQ5p8cC4EPILjkQbkjXfaVsuS3hXdH 5LAYZC1jpfG+JON87psTgWxkDneMde1zrQnSjHyArvGyRsexjIZmtbI+cxxe NcGvYYgcy+z27L3Nr3XVh5P6YcZZIKjA3G7FesAdzPqg59ri5EYzJzWq0RNH TRzSF8wYZZ5Jo6ktLX862QfmwAljHPBLbtJJIvbznSPKKOHR1TRiMx1U9W58 7AwBkcbX3EQcMjbA0ZZc47FMzmXhWrHIqeUFXTVUz/KHeUZxSSse2QuAsC0PINxzWi4/yrNPffrNz1au+/YnPcob6z0+zL4J7GilNSpLJGLpHhInBAUZDmpXuy6bptTCRnsUd80E6QdjjH +aLLjG45f0uNuDwoQVHBNY32Z3G9pFnDsupCLEjdt3jYevWkEjtS2fIfS48W 6J2tpxN4OyI7fasWDkuhyZqsFTHfIOOA/zZA9tlny49WJy6esU7wBq79qnxDXs/OapAC2HYM79O26kbUNBsbk7LajlqXl3KfR3JM54vzdg6057ciB0nVqNtaoh+ ZLQTlcHVq2Kw6YkWOWrPijG+0bVYarLM338Vca652/naqE0V9tjewtsIVmncWnM3O3dwT8K3ohZfJpwm+u19uxPYHNJ3b97tqYY8yR/x0KxiBGvVe/WkdrzPli77ZJlsj90xCk5as+2y8IvcxpV6OH6z+IYsTkDL2BHlDt/cEIXQs10p/Nk/wAodv7ghCAPKXb+4J3lTt/cEIQQ8qdv7gjyp2/uCEJwqPK3b+4f2Vqh0jI0nC61xbU3VcHd0BIhV9iNfFy6rPEsHjRzb2vFCT5 5FiSy7hZxBBve+ayNfpaWSSR8jrue97nGzRclxJyAsOASIWWMkVb3VvKnb+4 JoqXb+4JUKiL5U7f3D+yTyp2/uCVCAb5S7f3BL5S7f3BCEBC2U55pMZulQgqVspUjqh2Wexo1DYLBCEAoqXb+ 4IbUu36s9Q1oQgNUOVlTl9YNQ/w4u/mqOXlVU5/WDZ/hxbP5UIXL+PD1EkdypqSBeTf9yP5UtNysqQLCTLdgjPtahCfRj6gidvK+qv8 A9Qbf8OL5UxvK2pvfxgv/ALcXyoQjox9QHHlhVf6g/wDbi+VLHywqgSRIM9f1cXyoQn0Y+obh6Y0vLLM58jruOG5wsGpoAyAtqAQhC 1kmif/Z
http://www.pprune.org/data:image/jpeg;base64,/9j/4AAQSkZJRgABAQAAAQABAAD/2wCEAAkGBhQSERQUExQVFBUWGBcYGBgXGBgXGBgWGBcVFxcXHBQYHSYeGBok GhQUHy8gIycpLCwsFR4xNTAqNSYrLCkBCQoKDgwOGg8PGiwkHyQsLCwsKSws LCksLCwsKSwpLCwsLCwsLCwsLCwsLCwsLCwsLCwsLCwsKSwsKSwsLCwpLP/AABEIAPcAzAMBIgACEQEDEQH/xAAcAAABBQEBAQAAAAAAAAAAAAAFAgMEBgcBAAj/xABEEAACAAQEAwYDBQQKAQQDAAABAgADBBEFEiExBkFREyJhcYGRMqGxBxRC wfAjYtHhFSQzUnKCkrLC8TRDc3SiFiXi/8QAGgEAAgMBAQAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAwQAAQIFBv/EAC0RAAICAQMCBAUEAwAAAAAAAAABAhEDEiExBEETIlFhBTKBsdFxkaHwIzP h/9oADAMBAAIRAxEAPwCnv8Vhr0j0tSCBYXiOJ1zE2mCsbknbaOY00YJEqnN7W teNC+zentKmtbd7ewEUan8XI5RpvBlLlpU/eJb3Mb6Z3P6G9NFgUQ4phIGkd7MeJ8yY6BBamEiat9/zj0tBewA9ocXeKIJbU845UNlUm17Am3W0OEQlxEIfP/E3EYq6hi8vLYkAMb2tpa0QJ6DISR3bfq0H+KuDZorJ7IoEsvcEmwsbHlrveA j4LMZu8Qq+BuP9Y5+0bi6QNoC0zLmve4NwvgYnSaEFAbaqe8PzgjNl/hZVcbXYDP5hxv6xAqSyXUMFa1upI5bxEyMf7EBSb5R4fTwir15uxtrE9ZjEh XsFB1ufijk+gysWFip2I2iF2CRKI1gtNq81PkN9Dp/CI4WHqQ6FLXMY7lsHIhUg9YdFQ2x1HSC1PRgMrDccutoZrKM5yQuhOkbcWtz GoGlriH6NtbdYS0rf9aw9LsFJ16qeh6Rnkux6ZO5AxEDjXnDTNcx3tLC0CUa KJVOi5lNiban8os0qTcXDAeoir0OJGVnsAcy5dRfSDmG4/KWWBMlszDmD7RicWzcXR6nUE8rQSkMo0PPpA2lFr+EWnhjhE1aZnmCXLJIuN WNt7Dl6ws4ObouPIMkzSR3ddbXvz/ONowSRlkSlAOijkekD8B4co6RR2cssw/G/eb0voPSLAMQ6LDeHCsfc02LEs9IUsg+ENffT0EeNS3WGNiiSsiFCUBziD2p6 mBmO40tNKLMRc6LmOniT4D56CMtpESJ2K47KkHL8bn8IPzPSBE3iIn4sq+Fx f2394pczFxMJN5jk6lj3AfIAX9r+JG0KpbrrqTyC3t7sSWPr6QrLLfA1HCly WedXZtdQOugv5XMQKqglnV1QX5s2p/ygRBn460tfgzOfEKPcD5an6wMbGZhazrLB3Nplj6ggkesRZWW8SZJnYHKY3B UDwA+RyiGH4ZVxYAMemgPz5xHqKkMPiA8nH+4G/wAoXhVcZTAEgg7G9/S9h9INGbYGeNIEYjwVOB/sy45ELcjwIiB/QE5LjsnA6ZWjZcLqQ9usF+xVfiIF4YTTQk1JOj51qMEe2bI/mVNvpEGRSsZgyS3JU3NlJ0G97Dbxj6OxCsXLkUfLeIKgsCNBcWtYa/KMvc2m+5gdUxRs66ox2O6nn5RLSvVgLXJ6WjSqnhCU80s6Z/A7ewibScDUh17EelxG1aBuSujF62kLEsoYdb/xgbc7co+g3+zmkbTIyg72Y/nGJcVYWKarnSV1VGIXrblGJruaQHKwq0eyGOsDAyxssPKFLUkQgrHBLMQstT TugtGqcAy/6mnm31MZFmJ5afWLjwjxwZSLT5ALE95mNtTfXSF8dJsIuTU1WJKCKeOI5h/HKHkCfqY6McmHecf8qgQzqRqi5IIWTFIauY7vNPrb6R4Lf8DN5ljE1FFwetl r8TqPMiMsxzFfvVQz7qDZb65QNrLsCd+uvLaJvFVQZFMzBMuYhQbdf5AxRJu JsoCjTTl8RJ313H61gGSTewxhS5LQKgKQAbt5XP8A3E9asgasVXnl+I+F9/QRUqWfkUcieZNvQD8+cEKeq0udeg/XLw94Uew6lYbk4gXbJLQL1JJvb957Et5QufOlS9Nzzyjn4D4R8z4c4GCssth qT82Owv0tqfDzhMxdhe7Hc7egHIfX60m7LcRc2eHNguv71j+Voam4c6qWXXq OvpBjDcOsNoITaYhdYbjsBlGxGB40LCx7yGxHiLXtFsl4kJ4va3Lfl1jIhMM ipbXRhc+caRwjM7SUDBYPehLLGtwjOHtsLQun2+QhybJ8odpltuLwdLcVYz2 YF9r/ADhdINIC8QU5LKRLBuLa76eUDghXdCtuYZhFuVbA1G3ZepYj544/P/7CoP7/AOQi8YpxqslLynJcfhLMw9ddIzXGMReomtMa12NzbaBzkmqCgt213hynmAN5 9doam05iVh7qLKyXMCfBY9Mw4Obg2PTl7wh6LLoSIJBlBstgegiFNkEk3gUZ s3Q/PDXuCBEcTiCSWGv1iZLpze/KH5eHqx1/RiakuSi//ZlhImUzO4vdyBfwtf5xepWDoPwj2iPwdgv3aklS+drt/ibU/WLBLlQ1GJtsgDDgOQ9oeFGImdnHWSNUVZQftZoz9xVxayTELX8bqLDmbt9Ty jHcPmm+Z9vH+Mbr9qVIz4c+Vc2VkY62AAbVvHfbxjERLObUi/IdPprAMqGMLJHbkm4F/U/W0dNUTuR6fxiLozWJDdenl5/rzL0eDmZpLGgGukJyVD0LY1Iqje/QfL9CCVDUjMLnXpv7+MOf0Cstf2pNzso1YnewUXJMRZkiYHUJKdB1svPqb3J/WsVCPcJL0LxSTgEvbW20CK3iiz5RLz+p09BBTBKI9kVmd5tbHe2giunBLB1z 5Zl9DlDAG+9m0/W/KDQd7mZxa2BPFlWDMkOBlDXVh0Nxb6xpfAsoCUttit/ctFCx7h9/ugYv2pSYrZrWJGx+o9o0ThuR2SS0zXGQWOXKbeIJ3hiPKObmDU5frClXSFTE h12GT1hhcij4IdQASsIxGkHYuttWU/SG5FUJlRkXUINTyzHl6CCtdKAB8RF8syuD5crWKuwJ1BI+cMvUWF7gxYvtFw QyKx9O6/fXprv84qbXgDjTo2h1qkmGwNd4QHiRTsutxrpa/WMvYgz2zEjUwYlVBQWyg+MNiRLDC4AOm3jEtpqDS494DJ3wjaJCCLhwBwyZ8 4TWH7GWdL/iYcvIRE4U4MmVbBzdJI3bm3gt/rGv0FCspFRFCqosAImLE29TIkTUAtDqiEIsLh5EZ1YVbWEnTzhxFtFmQFxvI Z6CoVLXyE6i+gIY/IR88h+6bE+P6vtH0/W0gmS3lnQOrLfpmBF/nHzLjGDTaaa8iaCGViNviHJgehGsLZltYzge9EWlfUW9P4xo/BlhLuRqTzijYRgzObkEDrY29+saHhNPklrCM9zqYo1yWNaFG1C2J0uLX8ohz uHxmu5JH66Q/T14SBuMY20xhLlmxbS/QczEjQaibToocBdhp0EcrpCI4ZgNdL+PnAatmVEkAKqGWvO5zn06wNqcTm1O YElcvLn5mDY/Qzl4LVichXllRrm7tvPQQQNGwaWC1gpANunOKlwpWs9RJltfRxf01/KNVSjHPzhiCtWcnqXUqQ3TyDfX4eR8IeqaUEaaRIUxFqXI0zLe/wCLpBVyKvgi4VhSyQbbkkk9SYYnVYeYwB+HS3XrE/tiO9o3gpgdIo+/m2NzcRuOzsG+KAfHPB/32mIUDtZfeTx6r6xgNTThGKsCpBIIbQg9I+slSM++0n7MFrAZ8iyzwNRsJg6 HofGMzjq3NJGCTVF9I6kq8draB5Mwy5qMjKbFSLERKkshAy3vz15QCWxdERk NtBr15+USaaSxX4CfSC6kACwtHGqNd/aA62+xqjaJHFE0hBLoJ1mJVRmlKO7e/wCLTaHZfElWcuWhPfZlGadLGq3ve19NDEigMz+rar/aTv8AnCqYv/VyWUDtZvL/ANyOgV9SOvENectqOUMzlBefzF77LtoYnYBxT202ZTzZfZT0J0vdWAtcq1tb XENU4ciUc+n3h+XjMgZjX7JpU/NZlqyl/CYQpHziWVRc66tSRLaZMbKqi5JjL+LPthqaaYqpS5FcZkM74mW+hyA93yOsW nHv21dS0zMSmV57DrkKhQfVgfSGsY4Gpa+pdqjOxlqirZytgQSdopkoi8OcT 4pV0y1CSaPI2awZ5itZSQdgRyMVzj7D6yop0qp0iVLyAayphYlWNxcEDY689 zF7wDDZVPRtKlkhEM0Lc3Ngzc+ccraaWaJVNyGWWp8iVB+sYnuqCQ8rszDDu NqdZASahEwCwyrdHPIg7A+drQew3EA6gjYi8ZxxPgD0s6YlmCBtDb8JJy67b RcqBGEpG0Jyi9iCDoNQRv1jnThpOtjzOTpljcAiBCzpkjNMWQ065sShBYDlo eXleJlNU3G8S6ObcWtA4jNWNy6ubMUHJKUG2jub633FtNoC1zzVsssySxPeK DNlXW5LX35ARYKibMIyqM3gdYgTEm/jFgIZxVYHKnp5I+AVqU02XNmsFCnMzHyIG3jFxH2gUZ1+9S7HlexHvGerxcl LNZcizCykEG/dB6Ac9IkjjWndFlmUFAy6FUa5W3UA8tochBqNpWcjPNORoMnjmlNgs+WfNlE SnxKmYh2nS3IBAAZSNd9LxSsPqJVS+ZaanmFAbqUVTY271tb7Wh5cPpA7mbh 6jMRbKqkKAoFuXO59YpzSdNP9hfUXU1StZZZFrX7pWJMmj2LbxnTYXh4pwFV 5E/u/tFExWU3FyGGhsLxYeFuJTeZInT1fsyOznN3e1Q9Qbd4bGL1x9SbFxAjxWKFx tjVQ8uetNNyLJl5mddWdztLS3zPlFT+zHDKirao+9TqtMgQqM8yX8Wa513+E Rs1Zo/FXBFNXpacneHwzF0dfXmPAxjfEf2QVlKS0kfeJX7mj28U5+kaTJ4YmdnTkVl WDMYBv2t9MrNoCPARyowKpVahlrqn9mbLcofwqde7rq0U0mWYVJnsrsjqVbk rAgg+RjrC251jZsU4Am1E1Um1LTO5nzNLlkg3y2uANN4C0n2OdogczACb/APp+J/egLxq9iUybScWn+r6HR5vI/vQum4qNqfutpMmH4T+/4QZoX1p9B8U7kP3oeon0ptv7Sby/xxun6mwHI4lmZZXcb+3c/Cer+EBeLeIpn3ckqwC1Ye5BAuGB5+UXeROOWTt/5D8vGZFc48lGbSGXp36xV121YD2iU/UogYZi85sRSZlmMxpr63OjMDcA7CLJQ4pUGbOIlvuvLoohrDrri5XQZKSWth t8R0+UWTDZ5zzzf/1PoqxGvctFTk11V92mES2se1N/Vo5V1FX2Esdm28ocuog0awiiN2tmV7XIFySduu8D8Z4tRZahWLFCrdB3eXWM qDfBepIhYxPqA0szkVUGe+cjKdBvfffaIlJXicCwAAOmmg002G0VbiDiSZPJ eYxJNwo5AdAOUEODnJkXO2dreI0/O/tAs8VGNWNdK25hWdLKG49o9T4sykkrpBB0BGsDa+l07pjnO1ujqLYIHilAN9 YHTcZeaGyC5sSPOxsPEmBJpj/OJ1GMvpDGGTvcDml5aRQVxA9pmIKtzuLNfx5wXqWnzVUS5gUc7m369on8T4N 2ksOo74+YJvY+8BcGmWjodP1MclxRx82Fw3DODzamlmJOQDMmpAN1Yc7cxcb g28I2jC8Uk1clJq2GYfCbZlYaMpHUGMgl7am0edlvuQeTKbEeNxDjimLJ0a9 OwVCdoEY1w8vZOefKIfAXHqziKaewE4aI3KZbl4Pptzi24/TXp2I3hbPGscn7Ft7HzvLwlzJqJyzHBlvawYgWv4RNNfWIsgSqiaGmyyxOdr 2AJtv4GH6KqWXR1aswzu9gvM7a26bwinnzFm04lyzMdJPw6/iBvt4NCHm39vx+TAheJMQlyJEwVU3JmI3BykaW1HS8Sf8A8txM07z/AL1Myl8oFl9T8PpDmGy81DVynWzS2DgHcXOvzBiwYdMlS8LltMll0K2YC25J udfGKlllH9/45I5V+4PwqvxCeUdcQmMlu+MwDXttYDTWCk6RV31qp/8AraAVJIlyK6nNM90nWut72Dcj9fSNIamBhXPkmmt3QOTdkOh3p/8AFO/5Q9Q7U3/uTP8AnEWhqV/q2v4pv/KHKOrUCm1HxzP+cdhDpIknuyf/AJD/AFeAnFTfsV/+dL/3rBKTWLaT3h/bv/zgLxTVr2SC4/8AOT/eIhAthuuL1J6SJI+bmJk/G5VLLnzZzhR2jhQd3awsqjcny23OkU6v43lUWIVjspmMyylVVIA0Uk5mPwjU cifCM9xHG5lZVB5m7PoovZQWuVUHYfXcxZC44hizsBc2GgtfYdPeBOK1FgEH xNYD1j0180xegJPtqPrENQWms51tdV8zpBJTpFRjuPUWFmqqFlL8AsGPRf4m xjSqnDwigKAALWA2Agf9neBZFaYw1f8AI6RbKulzAj2jy2XrdWff5eDv4MKh jruV0aiB85AzWubQXm0TC4sYiU2HsTaxMN2nuFoipSX15df4D844lJfy5/kvnFh/o7u2OnUc4XKoPCwGw6Qpm6tQWmHJXhXyB5uH3Xz094peJYb2M5rCylrDzsPz jVGpe8g8zFYx/D7ypzW1Ukj/AFCF+k6h48qZjNiU4NFVQ8/5xFxKpypc6cgOZP8AAQ8jmKzjWIZ3NthovlzP68I9mp7HnHHc7T4hlmobkEM pzDdbEG48Rv6R9LUfElNXU7mnmrMsLldnX/FLNmHna0fKiJY66xOpatkIZWKsNipII8iNRA5PWmmTTsXyqr6JZrBqRyQxv3 zYm/SLFhVdTtWKVklZjyswbNpawOXLy/lGeLxXNZ5TzT2hlMCL2DHW9iwGvmbwYq+Me3rJU2nllXAyqrWOYkEcrdYQng k1Xs97AODDxxOm7Oon/d2uX7OaM+99b9BEzhnFpU9TTLTskoKT3jmBBO1/WKxSK5p69XXK4KOR0NzeLTwZiVTMEsPJAk5NJg52AA584Xy40ov8+38mWqRG xWRTYbMlulOXZr2OY907aA36wQo+LmdSTTTF1tazdBrt4/KE/aRItTy5g3luD7/zERZOM4oyqyy5ViARtsf80DUVPGpPn1bJVqxNJj0gdheandMzNrte9vrCqbH 6cdiDNQZWcm7DS+a31inTcbzG+RfaGhjGtyik+IH8I63jRGXKi8ScYkWlftZ ek5ie8NAc9jv4iK5x3jiLTgS3UuakuLG9gouG08bRC/p6WLkyZZvr8K/wim4tWdo5awUE6KALAdLRtTjJbFp2MVuIPOmmY5u7G5Py+kTcCW84H+6CfW1 h9YFiCNLUNKW4X4+ZB1AJGnhcNr18opGyxmYMxJ/W1/pBng/DfvM1zbuobX/fYfkPqIojVrvoDa/Iafzjafs1wfsaNbjV2Zj8gPkI5vxLM4YqXLHejhqnb7FooKQS0CjkIemS7ws R4iPNUdW9yDMQ/wDcMy5LE7gDoP5QQZI7ljNPiwusjiVClkw9lhURIw5WRkS7k+kV3iFQKOcTz P1YD84s8saGKzxfKvhtRbkM3syn8oJj+eP6oqXyszHFKoS5bHYtoPzMVMNck wSxuuDso6LqPHf+EDVEe17HnHyJLaw4rQyx1hYMWUPiZDlNVmWyuvxKQw81N x8xEW8dvE5KaNjpsMedNnTkA7GqkAr3h8TAMBbzuPSG8GlYhIEuVeUspSL95 L5L6+PWA3AeMylp17SfLlvKchVckXW+YHTl33HpBepx6jLXM+SdHFgjkjP42 1tyvHKkpJuLVr9PQTdp0HOLaM1FKVVkuxFizAKbHrFckYdiKgKKmSAvdtnXS 3L4Ykji+iMlZbTWJRgwKy2G2++19dojzuMaK9lLZdbZpVzqSd82u8YhGUVpr 90Ral2/gqaoNoQ9Hz0EPKDvt1trClm8rG/jDRrcD4oMi2G5gFPOvlBXGZ15lulv4wIENwVRQxBUjqiJk46KOgA/P8zEYLew6kCJsqmadOWWguzsFUeJNh9Ytut2FSvYOcK4AZrK5GhOnkDYn309 I3LDJGSWq9ICYJgKylVV2QBR420v67+sWSUNI8l1HUPPO+x3seJYo0Ljscj0 Lmj1o9aPXj14hD0ceO3hLmKLEnRTAfGpIeinqTYFHBPQWOsGJvwxV+Nqvs8M qCNyMn+tgv0JjWOOqcUvVEbqLZhFTMzzHYAKCdFF7AcgLknQaakxwR631jse 1POkeHIbhcQoUY7CY7EIT8FClyrbEH3Gv0vB37nLEVijnZZit0I9ucWtmB5Q vmbTsFJtDZoEcb2htsBB2MP2AsYbM83NrexgOtmNbFiVbn+vyhwzT+heHSNN dR6CG6tlWW5HIH6RN7KplRqpmZmY7kk+5hhRDjwlRDwyKlfGvmPrFx+znB2m TptQHEsU6XDsLgM1wTbnZBMPnlinyfiv0BPsDb52jbPs+4cVcNVZi37f9o4u Re9soNuWVV08THP6/N4eKvXb8jnS49c79AvKxnJIlOyZTMsbE2CqWQXY8rK4JHgRHKfiQmblOQKJU x2F++GUK9iL6AIwB01YN0ghV4Kk0qX1AFgvL40fXrfIot0v1hRwSTYAoDYML 3N2z/GWYWLE63v1jz8HjS3R1Jam9gPIxqbMlzcz9m8iUTNyqptNDMbDMCLFZf8A9/KCTS5i0rGZOcuELlwEUghcxUWW1rgjUE67xLfDpZ7S6D9rbtN+9YWF9ekRMa x2nkgrPddQQUtmYg73Qcj42EavW6hH+DNaVcmDpNROlNJA7SeexaZMDzFUAn swNSPhBD2HiYjUk2dMaWC00gSZBYrP7LvTM7sSCDnNivtEeo+0SQCSshmuMt 2yKSuvd0zaanSE0/GNC7AzaYIwtZjLR7ZbZdQMwAsLWGlobWDKlbx/39LAeJB7KRYsdlMWkhZk1M0wIcjZQVyuzG1t7JvAoVU77yqhpuUz+zVmdeyK S1XtFKWzFyA5B0ufKLHT1EucqzEKzADdWFjY2I06GxI66wo0aG3cXRs+w+O9 83+K/OEo5NKpoYcb3TAcusmzBSr2hUzUmszBVJ0y5TYi2ma0UzjTEpxw6WHZWE1id EymyMtr6kX1J0A8o0X+iklsXkypau3xG2W433ANtdYqPGWCFqEqJQHZKSpEw mw0ZgFt3tramDdPkgssfS/b3/4ZyRk8b/Qxq+to8x0Meb4o4+0eqOGMneFwlt47EKOx2Ex28Qh5YtlO4ZFPMgfSKmsWzA ZQaSDYE3IN/PTy3EAz8WDmrJPYL5gRxqS+x0hU1wu9odSWttz7mEm2uASI7TgdL3/KIuJf2LEcrDzuQIkhFB5RExqYOyIHVfrDCa1I2qbK2THo5zj0OBx+kkF2yjd 8qD/M6iPpLDJQSWqjZQAPICwjBuA6Dta6Up1AOc/5dR87Rv0hbCOB8Uncox9Dq9FHytj8cvHM0VvjzGjIp8qGzzSVB5hbd8+xA/zRzMcHkkoLuNzahFyYM4n42Yv2FJq18pddSW2yy7c/3vbrDeD/AGeFu/VObnUop1/zTNdfL3iT9n2AqkoVDAF3+D91Nrjxb6W6mLjeHsudYP8AFh29X3bF4YvE8+T 6Iy/jvD5cibLSTLCjs8xsSSSWIFySSfhi1zOBKeZKQZTLfIt2Un4rC5KnQ6xVOLZ vaYlksbZpSf7b/wC4xqN431GbJDFjqTumzGLHGU52tjLJi1GF1Ghup88kxRyI5Ee4jS8LxJZ8p ZqbMNuYOxB8QYGcZ0Am0c241QZ1PQrqfcXEA/sxrDlnS+QKsPUEH/aIxla6jB4r+aOz9zUF4WTQuHwXhog4hLujA8wYmkxGrB3THKHonzljNJ2VQ6 cgSB5bj6xDflBjjH/zp3g1v/qIDTN49rik5Qi36I87lVTaXqIflHo88eggM5zhRhHOFGIQ8IsnDT9yYCdAQf cW/KK4IOcLTyJjKPxL81N/oTGMi8pTDayQ1tuohXYW/vegiclKddAL77Dy2hY00I205Qm0Z0LuV95hPRfS/wA4g4pKIl+ZH5wT7LvcoG8QzrWTn8R+gH5wTHHzGIrcCLvHiY9L5xxjDYcvX 2Sygama391AP9Tf/wAxsKTdIxf7MKvJOmjqq/In+MalLro8x8Rvxmdvo/8AWgx2kUP7T7/sGG3fHr3T9AfaLSKuBvEWHiqkNL/F8Snow29DqPWFelyrFljJ8B8+PXjcUR8P42kSaOTmbM4QL2ab3Xu68lGnP5w ArOMKqrbs5IKA/hl/Fb959wP9Iir0yrLnhahXCqbOq6MP5eXLaNXwWqkCUPuyoU/c6/vc7/4tY6maOLpvOo6m97fH9/tiONzz+Vuku3czGXIZpvYrYzMxWwI+IXuL7cjFgwbjedSns5wZ1XQq2jr5E/Q+4gfwzWE4ndpeuecdvxWf+cXDixqVpd6myG3dYW7TyUbsPA6eUF6nqIuccW SNppcc37GMOF6XOEqpi+IeLJL0MxpbgmYOzA/EC2913FluYg/ZlI7s6ZyJVR/lBJ/3CKBQUrT5olyhmJOl9LL/AHm6ADUxruEUi08lJS7KNT1J1LephXqow6bC8UXbk7+gfp9WfJra2X3DOeGK iboYjtUxEn1UcdHQqjG+OafLWzD/AHiG+VvyivvvFw+0eWDMR/Gx+sU9t49h0ktWGL9vsee6mOnI0JeOR1to5DQucG8KMIXcwuIWdEScPnZJqN e2o9jofrEaOxKvYpmgtIJAObS/r/CIcwtfcw/QVv7NGGhKg9fA/nHnmjqB6Xjnu+ALZ6cqLmbwueegilVU8uzMeZ/6EWfiN2lysrKyljbUEC25335e8VPrDmNbWGo5L2MJMKXaEkwQsn4BiXYz1bk dD5GNOpcWuBrGOsdYt/C9UXSxOxtHK6/ApLWdDo8teQ0BMSh1a8nbX9eMC6Sg0vcwQlUPQxwZJI6yZBxzDBUjvSsrjZw dR4HTvDwisNwtVyjmlNr1Vijfr1i+pJcbGF9pM5qDBsXV5MS0xe3owOTBDI7 fJmsvCa5GzKkxW17wYA6794NziRS8JzpjXmzFS+5JLsfbT3MaGJh/uxxrHdAYPL4jlfCSBLo8fewfg1DKplyy9SfiYkFmt1ty8BpBJcQiPMQcktEa ZSOfhU/SOfJub1Se47FKKpE9sQHWIdViItvEIyTsbqfGAuL50BvcDrblBceNSdGJzpF e40r87AdCPfX+XvFdO8O4lOzP5b+f/QEIVb38I9Xgx+HBRPP5p65tiW2hELMIgwE8sKEIWFAxCxUejkeBiFFlwCeWl lf7p9bHUD3vBTsW5HTzgBww95uUG2YeWo1+l4tpkDm1vUH84Ty7SozpbK/x/jRm1TIScsruKPGwLH1P+0RWs+kFeKCDVzj1a/uBAcpDa4CPkdhsw5DZi2UNtBvh2pysPPWApETsINngGeOqDQXE6kjX8PawXo YKrTjcQEwGaHlhSbECC0iaVNjHlJqmd2L2JUs+sSFUGIxF4UkwjeBGx808cE ofoQ5KmAw6ViixEunUam3tCJjk6AR1geRjjziFNzFUWCcUkA6EaxnPGOPlLy FYMeZ3yjpfrFo4tx3sZTMPi2HTMdv4+kZOSWJJ1J3J6mO18P6bU/Elwvuc7q8+laF3G1EOLvre3gbfOxjxjkd9HJYqY9yToPAe0MmHYaMQoSphWa ELCwIosTrCgkLAjsQhLwdD28oLcsXUADc3No0lcHm2Hcb2MUPg+lLVsi2tmz HyUFj9I101NtL294HNJs1GNmUcW0uSff8AvKD6i4P0EAA+sdj0FJPaTFX0hs x6PRGYORPwZRnN/D6x6PQPJ8jNw+ZGn4QtlW3SDigHXUR6PR5TJyd+HA9LMPqoPhHI9AQgrsbcz EiS/WPR6KLQ6WERalri0ej0ZIZt9qE23YoNL5mPpYD6mKEoj0ej1fQL/BH6/c4fVf7WJaPCPR6HRU9DTx6PRCHFhwGPR6KIdEKzR6PRZCwcB1GSrzm5sj7eO URof9NId0+kej0U4pm4ukf/2Q==
https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTnBwnzSI5zDPSqeg7leIvwOzSYHEGbEauwtAftiwg _scqgT9vN
http://www.politifake.org/image/political/1103/cindy-sheehan-liberal-double-standard-political-poster-1300975165.jpg

[Pontius Navigator]

Is this S-300? If so Israel will go apoplectic and will strike.
Is this Tor? Far more likely. Won't annoy Israel and is specifically designed to take out Tomahawks.

The Slava will annoy someone else too.

[SASless]

PN,

The Politicians are all for us being sent to kick Ass....right up and until it starts going badly....then they very quickly forget they voted to send us there to begin with and immediately throw all the responsibility on us.

John (who served in Vietnam as you may recall) Kerry is a prime example of that.

John Kerry confirms to MSNBC he opposed Iraq War he voted to authorize | Twitchy (http://twitchy.com/2013/09/05/john-kerry-confirms-to-msnbc-he-opposed-iraq-war-he-voted-to-authorize/)

[ORAC]

Memories of the Soviet "Cyprus Buoy" Landing Ship back in the 70s. It supposedly had enough armour and troops to evacuate the USSR embassy in Nicosia if the Turks went for the rest of the island.

Russian Ships Heading To Mediterranean (http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ships-syria/25097867.html)

http://gdb.rferl.org/2B367637-13E7-4A1A-9A41-7EDE694B8AC0_mw1024_n_s.jpg

Russia's Interfax news agency says four Russian ships are on their way to the eastern Mediterranean.

The report on September 6 said two large landing ships and a reconnaissance ship had passed through the Dardanelles Strait entering the eastern Mediterranean. It said a third landing ship has left the Black Sea port of Sevastopol and would sail toward the eastern Mediterranean after picking a "special cargo" in Novorossiysk.

Kremlin chief of staff Sergei Ivanov said on September 5 that Russia is boosting its naval presence in the Mediterranean, "primarily" to organize a possible evacuation of Russians from Syria. It is unclear how many ships Russia has there.

The United States already has a strong naval presence in the region ahead of possible U.S. military strikes in Syria following a suspected chemical-weapons attack.

[Ronald Reagan]

Putin was brilliant at this G20, its impressive he not only has China with him, but India and Brazil with him to. Good to see India understanding which block of nations her future is with, the same with Brazil. Also Indonesia and Argentina, may have been others but cannot find the list online.
The only ones with Obama are the same old tired puppets such as UK, France, Canada, Australia, Japan and South Korea plus some others. Plus those nations do not all support military action. So in effect the old nations reaching the end of their dominant time against the new emerging powers.
Also the Pope, Ban Ki Moon and Herman Van Rompuy have spoken out against military action.
Seems opinion in congress is going against intervention to as congressmen and senators are being contacted by thousands of Americans at a ratio of about 10 to 1 against military action in Syria.

[SASless]

We have thrashed the down sides of attacking Syria.....why not devote some time to arguing about the UP Side to NOT Attacking Syria.

Surely there are good things that will flow from the American People and Congress telling the President and his White House Advisors we want no part of new Wars or aggression against Middle Eastern Nations.

Is that not one of the common complaints by those who hate us so....our constant military presence and attacks against Islamic and Arab Nations and interests?

Perhaps there is very good news should we clip the President's Wings on this....as it will also affect future Presidents as well.

I maintain we have been far too slow to speak out against the national leadership when they start to take us to War for some trumped up bull**** reasons.

We can still defend American National Security Interests and at the same time scale way back on our military adventures!.

[NutLoose]

And I agreed with what Putin said about the UK, it's just it hasn't sunk into the our politicians thick heads that we no longer are a major player.. They seem to believe that you can reduce the Military down to a pittance and have the best of both worlds... As for Cameroon the buffoon, his reply was cringeworthy and had all the hallmarks of a petulant child..

The UK best at everything and invented every sport played around the World :ugh::ugh:

Smacks of my dads bigger than yours.

Cameron to Putin: Britain is the best at everything ever (http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/cameron-to-putin-britain-is-the-best-at-everything-ever/)



..

[SASless]

When did you guys start chasing Goat Stomachs around the pasture on horseback?:E

[Ronald Reagan]

Syria: Russia will stand by Assad over any US strikes, warns Putin - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10291879/Syria-Russia-will-stand-by-Assad-over-any-US-strikes-warns-Putin.html)

[Broadsword***]

The only ones with Obama are the same old tired puppets such as UK, France, Canada, Australia, Japan and South Korea plus some others.

None of those countries are exactly down on their uppers, in terms of wealth or influence, Ron.

[Ronald Reagan]

They are all in decline though Broadsword***, guess Australia and Canada have a future due to their resources but certainly not in the same league as China, India, Russia etc. As is often the case when Washington commands, UK, Australia, Canada and France obey. Give it a decade or two and its likely to be a very different geopolitical world.

[NutLoose]

Except we haven't.

[Ronald Reagan]

Our government would have if they could though! Some in the government still wish they could and want another vote in parliament, to keep voting until they get the 'right' result. Such loyal puppets. Luckily public opinion was such that enough MPs blinked! I hope it goes the same way in the USA.

[NutLoose]

True, and it was the best thing they have ever done, it gave me the feeling there is a glimmer of Democracy..

I watched John McCain on TV tonight and the only thing that came over was whooooo Bottox OD.. None of them seem to in touch with reality

[Ronald Reagan]

NutLoose, I agree with you totally.
As you say a glimmer of democracy. Its really a disgrace it was such a close vote, it should have been a huge majority against military action but still, it was the right result in the end.

As for McCain, I once respected him so much. I am shocked at his position on this.

I think from now on before further military interventions we should have the government of the day making the decision to go to war, then both houses of parliament voting, then provided it gets through them both, the people of this country get a referendum. If it fails at any hurdle then we do not go to war. I do not see how military action can take place if a majority of the people are against it. Maybe the only exception should be if our homeland itself is in huge danger and requires urgent response.

[Broadsword***]

I watched John McCain on TV tonight and the only thing that came over was whooooo Bottox OD

See, he and Putin do have something in common.

[SASless]

Nutty,

You talking about the big lump on McCain's left cheek?


If you are....he has had Cancer in that place on his cheek.

[Pontius Navigator]

SASLess, this thread has bounced along with pro-US, anti-war and back with lots of digression, will they won't they, should they shouldn't.

In all this I have lost the thread. With no hint of sarcasm, can you remind me, are you for a strike or not?

[ORAC]

A New Revolt of the Generals? (http://blogs.defensenews.com/intercepts/2013/09/a-new-revolt-of-the-generals/)

Back in the bloody Iraqi spring of 2006, a group of retired Army and Marine Corps generals including former Central Command chief Gen. Anthony Zinni and several two-star generals who had left the service after commanding troops in Iraq in 2004 and 2005, created a huge stir when they publicly demanded the resignation of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.

Dubbed the “Revolt of the Generals,” the episode sparked furious debate over the long-held tradition of former officers declining to publicly criticize their former civilian bosses—especially during wartime.

This morning, highly respected retired US Army Maj. Gen. Bob Scales wrote a sharp opinion piece (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/us-military-planners-dont-support-war-with-syria/2013/09/05/10a07114-15bb-11e3-be6e-dc6ae8a5b3a8_story.html) in the Washington Post that exposes similar explosive issues within the Pentagon with regard to the possible war with Syria.

The difference here is that Scales makes his point about his displeasure with the Obama administration not as a former officer, but by using the opinions of what he claims to be “dozens” of active duty officers, all of whom he says are “embarrassed” to be associated with the White House’s bumbling of the situation:

After personal exchanges with dozens of active and retired soldiers in recent days, I feel confident that what follows represents the overwhelming opinion of serving professionals who have been intimate witnesses to the unfolding events that will lead the United States into its next war.

They are embarrassed to be associated with the amateurism of the Obama administration’s attempts to craft a plan that makes strategic sense. None of the White House staff has any experience in war or understands it. So far, at least, this path to war violates every principle of war, including the element of surprise, achieving mass and having a clearly defined and obtainable objective........................

[ORAC]

Iran Plots Revenge, U.S. Says (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323893004579057271019210230.html)

WASHINGTON—The U.S. has intercepted an order from Iran to militants in Iraq to attack the U.S. Embassy and other American interests in Baghdad in the event of a strike on Syria, officials said, amid an expanding array of reprisal threats across the region.

Military officials have been trying to predict the range of possible responses from Syria, Iran and their allies. U.S. officials said they are on alert for Iran's fleet of small, fast boats in the Persian Gulf, where American warships are positioned. U.S. officials also fear Hezbollah could attack the U.S. Embassy in Beirut...........

The Iranian message, intercepted in recent days, came from Qasem Soleimani, the head of Revolutionary Guards' Qods Force, and went to Iranian-supported Shiite militia groups in Iraq, according to U.S. officials. In it, Mr. Soleimani said Shiite groups must be prepared to respond with force after a U.S. strike on Syria.

Iranian officials on Friday denied their government was plotting attacks in Iraq against the U.S. Alireza Miryousefi, a spokesman for Iran's United Nations mission, said the allegation was baseless and meant to "provoke the Congress" into authorizing a strike on Syria. "We should remember that relying on U.S. intelligence reports from anonymous officials will repeat the tragedy of Iraq," he said.............

Some officials believe a direct response from the Syrian or Iranian governments is less likely than reprisals from allied militant groups, such as Hezbollah. Hezbollah, whose members have been fighting alongside government forces against the Syrian rebellion, could be used to launch rocket attacks against U.S. military assets or American allies, including Israel.

When the U.S. went to war with Iraq in 1991, Saddam Hussein fired rockets at Israel. Officials in Mr. Assad's government have threatened to strike Israel, as well as Syria's neighbors Jordan and Turkey if they aid the U.S.

For days, American officials have said they were particularly concerned about potential attacks on Turkey and Jordan. U.S. officials haven't reinforced defenses in those countries, but both already have Patriot batteries capable of shooting down incoming missiles or fighter planes. Jordanian officials have said they also fear they could be hit by rockets or that Syrian forces would force new waves of refugees across the shared border, overwhelming the kingdom.

Other U.S. allies also are worried about an increased threat of retaliation. French officials said they are concerned Hezbollah could target the hundreds of French troops taking part in a U.N.-backed peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon..............

[Pontius Navigator]

boots boots boots
marching up and down again

but are they cold feet?

[glad rag]

I love the toughness of arm chair generals like SASless commenting on executions of prisoners:





You won't be so matter of fact if its a couple of Tornado crews being beheaded as war criminals - which they will be if there is no U.N. resolution. You also might not be so logical if it is your granny who freezes to death without Russian gas next winter.

To put it another way, you tossers sound EXACTLY like the idiots who sat and watched as we sleepwalked into World War One.

Get it through your heads that this is serious and pontificating about weapon performance and other stuff is just plain obscene. This thing can explode in all our faces, including in Britain, and we are fools if we think otherwise.

Absolutely correct. This idiocy [Syrian intervention] has to STOP.

We should also take a very hard look at where our energy comes from and take a monumental step forwards.

[Broadsword***]

You won't be so matter of fact if its a couple of Tornado crews being beheaded as war criminals - which they will be if there is no U.N. resolution.

International law is by no means clear that the use of military force must always be authorised by the UN Security Council. There is a developing legal framework for military intervention on humanitarian grounds. Known as the Responsibility to Protect, or R2P, it was born out of the humanitarian disasters of the 1990s in Kosovo and Rwanda.

You also might not be so logical if it is your granny who freezes to death without Russian gas next winter.

Melodramatic and highly unlikely: Russia's economy is highly dependent on gas exports to Europe, so withholding those exports for any sustained period would start to hurt the Russian economy. Also, 93.5% of the energy consumed in Europe is covered by sources other than Russian gas – and natural gas, unlike oil, faces direct competition from other fuels and technologies.

Transport modes and routes for gas have also diversified. Until the early 2000s, most of Europe’s imports came via pipelines. But over the past decade, Europe has become a major customer in the rapidly growing market for liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is transported by sea.

[Pontius Navigator]

Broadsword, I suspect that as far as the Syrians are concerned a UN resolution or the Geneva Convention would be irrelevancies should aircrew be downed and captured by either side.

[SASless]

PN,



I do not believe the President has any authority to order an Attack on the Syrian Government.....NONE.

The 1973 War Powers Act grants three options for the President in ordering our Military to attack.

1- In response to an Attack
2- To prevent an Imminent Attack
3- By authorization of Congress

Under our Constitution only Congress may Declare War.

The Syrians have not attacked us, and do not have the capability to do so, and have not threatened to do so.

In plain language, I am absolutely dead set against any attack against the Syrian Government by US Military forces.

I think there are many other options and considerations that need to take place first that would both be far more effective, less costly in lives (ours and theirs), and would be better received by the World community and the Islamic Nations and Peoples than an Attack of any kind.

Right now....the American People by an 8-1 or 9-1 margin agree with my position.

It is only the political elite in this country that are pushing for this War.

[NutLoose]

Nutty,

You talking about the big lump on McCain's left cheek?


Nope, mainly all around his eyes do not look his age, most of his face has a pulled taught look. May be because of his cancer treatment, but it belies his age.

[dead_pan]

To put it another way, you tossers sound EXACTLY like the idiots who sat and watched as we sleepwalked into World War One.

Sunfish, have a gander at this article and tell us what you think:

The left's irrational fear of American intervention | Niall Ferguson | Comment is free | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/06/left-irrational-fear-us-intervention-syria)

Yet the president may not be able to sustain his brand of minimalist interventionism until 2016. While all eyes are focused on chemical weapons in Syria, the mullahs in Iran continue with their efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. The latest IAEA report on this subject makes for disturbing reading. I find it hard to believe that even the pusillanimous Obama would be able to ignore evidence that Tehran had crossed that red line, even if it was drawn by the Israeli prime minister rather than by him.

The Iranian factor is one of a number of key differences between the break up of Yugoslavia and the breakup of countries like Syria and Iraq.

The Middle East is not the Balkans. The population is larger, younger, poorer and less educated. The forces of radical Islam are far more powerful. It is impossible to identify a single "bad guy" in the way that Slobodan Milosevic became the west's bete noire. And there are multiple regional players – Iran, Turkey, the Saudis, as well as the Russians – with deep pockets and serious military capabilities. All in all, the end of pan-Arabism is a much scarier process than the end of pan-Slavism. And the longer the US dithers, the bigger the sectarian conflicts in the region are likely to become.

The proponents of non-intervention – or, indeed, of ineffectual intervention – need to face a simple reality. Inaction is a policy that also has consequences measurable in terms of human life.

[SASless]

I have said General Dempsey and other Senior US Military Commanders have no backbone.

If this doesn't define the problem then what does?

The Military Leadership has a Moral obligation to refuse orders they know to be "Wrong".

They must stand up....and refuse....meaning by Resigning or being Fired....but stand up they should. I see it as a Duty....and a decision based upon their "Honor".

Robert H. Scales: A war the Pentagon doesn't want » The Commercial Appeal (http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2013/sep/07/robert-h-scales-a-war-the-pentagon-doesnt-want/)

[PPRuNe Pop]

Hey guys! You are not going to get away with these kind of opinions and the way they are being put. You know better than that and that is why, if it continues, the posts will be pulled - as one has gone already. Very offensive - amongst other things.

Think before you post please. Remember those who might read such stuff.

[Eclectic]

Syria: western activists volunteer to become 'human shields'

Syria: western activists volunteer to become 'human shields' - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10292367/Syria-western-activists-volunteer-to-become-human-shields.html)

Utter fruitcakes.
Where were they when Assad was launching WP, Scuds and Sarin into the civilian areas of Aleppo?

[TomJoad]

Syria: western activists volunteer to become 'human shields'

Syria: western activists volunteer to become 'human shields' - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10292367/Syria-western-activists-volunteer-to-become-human-shields.html)

Utter fruitcakes.
Where were they when Assad was launching WP, Scuds and Sarin into the civilian areas of Aleppo?

It is indeed, truly difficult to understand the rationale here. Again, perhaps their actions are more politically aligned than would appear.

[Hangarshuffle]

Fine words but that time is over. 1500+ dead by chemicals and its black dark outside. You drew the line. (If he is going to attack the clock in my house says 2149 out here). Do it and match your windy rhetoric or shut up and go to bed.
(America now sickens me beyond belief).
Pisssed and sick.

[Rosevidney1]

Hangarshuffle claims 1500+ dead by chemicals. So easy to say - just prove it. Even the unfortunate John Kerry (who is not noted for understating the case) didn't put it that high. Lets call an end to this inflationary habit, shall we? Now pray tell us how you KNOW who was responsible.
America has been on Britain's side in 2 world wars yet you find the country to be so sickening as to be unbelievable?
Now you imply that you are inebriated I think we are quite safe in discounting anything you say. :(

[Ronald Reagan]

George Galloway: Dogs of War Slaver over Syria, Powder keg for Disaster - YouTube (http://youtu.be/I6qMCb14K3s)

Superb

[Toadstool]

Rose

I don't think anybody disputes the fact that a number of people, numbering in their hundreds at least, died due to a chemical weapons attack/incident/accident. The real disputable issue at hand is who was responsible.

Now go back ten years when we rushed to war in Iraq partly based on two falsehoods. Colin Powell standing up in the UN talking about these mobile biological weapons trucks and Tony Blair saying that Saddam could launch chemical weapons at our interests within 45 mins.

The fact that Saddam used chemical weapons in the past is also irrefutable. Although the weapons inspectors could find no real evidence of lingering stockpiles of weapons, and Saddam had also sent a number of documents to the UN showing how they had disposed of said weapons, the coalition still rushed to war against public opinion and with the absence of irrefutable proof.

Fast forward 10 years with the world weary of war in Iraq and Afghanistan and the proof that Al Assad's use of chemical weapons not being 100% we now find ourselves in a bit of a quandry.

I am going to stick my neck out. Yes we've heard that we did nothing while thousands of Syrians have died during this Civil War. We also did nothing in Rwanda and Darfur and many other places, as if these are all excuses as to why we should do nothing now. If 100% proof is found that Al Assad used chemical weapons against his own people then this is a red line, whether we like it or not. There are many treaties and conventions that say as much. As the self appointed world's policemen we have a duty, at times, to act. What that act is I am not clever enough to know but, if it stops Al Assad or anyone else in the future from using such weapons, then isn't this a good thing?

[SASless]

Galloway made one mistake.....he said the American Political Class (or words to that effect meaning those pushing for War) had not been stopped. He is correct in that but left off the most important word that should have been in his statement....."YET".

The American People are adamantly against this push for War, the House of Representatives will more than likely respond to that pressure by Voters....and the Senate unfortunately will probably vote with a very small majority to endorse Obama's demand for approval.

Where that leaves us is quite interesting....the Senate for...and the House Against....the People Against.....and the President for.

This is going to be a true Constitutional Crisis if Obama fails to get Congressional Approval in both Houses and convince far more of the People to support him in this......and then goes out and on his own and orders an Attack on Syria.

If you think you see turmoil now....wait till that happens!

[Pontius Navigator]

SASLess, thank you for your prior reply.

It seems to me that there are very few (any?) on this on thread advocating any military intervention.

It seems that most populations of most countries would concur with that position.

It also seems that neighbouring countries are fearful of the fall out.

Even Tony Blair says that they are repeating the mistake that he and GWB made of not considering 'what next'?

Is 'something must be done' even a practical statement? Firing missiles is ipso facto and admission that our leaders are fresh out of ideas.

Why is no one pushing for a ceasefire, a separation of combatants, and a UN Green Line?

[SASless]

I also wonder why the International Community, including Obama, have not gone that route....having let this Civil War drag on for Two Years without any serious effort to bring it to a halt.

There have been plenty of reports of atrocities by both sides in this and no real hand wringing over those.

I wonder why the International Red Cross have not been involved in confirming the treatment of the Wounded and Prisoners and worked to ensure they are being rendered humane treatment?

Is it neither side takes Prisoners and do not treat the other sides Wounded when they take possession of the battlefield thus no need for the Red Cross to do what they normally do in situations like this?


Obama made a big point about the WMD Treaty the Syrians did not sign onto....why not the Geneva Accords on treatment of Prisoners and Wounded?

Which treaties and rules must the parties to a non-international armed conflict respect?

The parties to non-international armed conflicts are at minimum required to comply with Article 3 common to the Geneva Conventions and with rules of customary IHL. These rules guarantee humane treatment to each person that finds him- or herself in the power of the enemy and require that persons wounded in the hostilities, including wounded enemy fighters, be collected and cared for without discrimination.

The outbreak of an armed conflict has significant consequences on the legal obligations of those involved in the fighting, especially regarding their use of force. Indeed, IHL permits a far greater degree of force against lawful targets, though within strict limits aimed at protecting civilians, than what is allowed in situations of violence other than armed conflict.

Among the rules that the parties to an armed conflict must respect when conducting hostilities, there is the prohibition of direct attacks against civilians; the prohibition of indiscriminate attacks; the obligation to respect the principle of proportionality in attack; and the obligation to take all feasible precautions in planning and executing military operations so as to avoid as far as possible civilian casualties.

What happens if the parties to a non-international armed conflict do not respect their obligations under IHL?

Each party to an armed conflict is required to respect and ensure respect for IHL by all those acting on its instructions, or under its direction or control. It must be emphasized that each party must respect IHL even of its adversary does not; in other words, the obligation to respect IHL does not depend on reciprocity.

As regards serious violations of IHL occurring in non-international armed conflicts – also known as war crimes – States must criminally prosecute persons suspected of committing such violations. Under certain conditions, alleged war criminals may also be referred to the International Criminal Court.

I should stress that the ICRC, in keeping with its special status under international law and as a neutral and independent humanitarian organization, does not in any way get involved in the investigation and trials of war crimes, this being the sole responsibility of States.

In a non-international armed conflict, are captured enemy fighters considered prisoners of war?

No. The term "prisoner of war" refers to a special status afforded by the Third Geneva Convention to captured enemy soldiers ("combatants") in international armed conflicts only. Prisoners of war cannot be prosecuted for acts that are lawful under IHL (for example, for having attacked enemy forces). In contrast, in a non-international armed conflict, IHL does not prevent the prosecution of captured rebel fighters for the mere fact of having taken up arms, although IHL encourages governments to grant the broadest possible amnesties at the end of an armed conflict, except for persons suspected of, accused of, or sentenced for war crimes.

If armed groups can be party to an armed conflict, doesn’t this give them a form of legitimacy they don’t deserve?

As is recalled in Article 3 common to the Geneva Conventions, the mere fact that an armed group – be it labelled "criminal," "freedom fighters," "terrorist" or otherwise – is party to an armed conflict does not give it any particular status under IHL. It does, however, create legal obligations for the armed group, as for any party to an armed conflict – in particular, the obligation to ensure that its members respect IHL at all times.

But the application of IHL does not affect the sovereignty of a State or a government's right to suppress rebellion through armed force and to prosecute insurgents under its own laws.

The sole objective of IHL is to minimize suffering in armed conflict. It regulates only how the fighting takes place, and not why it occurs. In internal armed conflicts in particular, IHL imposes obligations on each side without regard to the legitimacy of those taking part in the fighting, which is governed by other bodies of law.

[Onceapilot]

An interesting week to come! My previous prediction was (thankfully) overtaken by public reaction in the free world, IMO.
Obama is on a limb here. He hesitated then, aquiesced to weight of political opinion about Afghanistan. I think he will not now commit to direct military action here, whether or not he gets approval. Just my opinion.

OAP

[TomJoad]

Why is no one pushing for a ceasefire, a separation of combatants, and a UN Green Line?

:D:D:D most sensible question asked so far.

[Broadsword***]

Why is no one pushing for a ceasefire, a separation of combatants, and a UN Green Line?

They can push all they like. Assad is winning and he has the (apparently unconditional) backing of China and Russia. It is simply not in his interest to agree to a ceasefire, until such time as he feels he might be going under.

[Pontius Navigator]

Assad is winning and he has the (apparently unconditional) backing of China and Russia.

A UN ceasefire and separation of forces requires a UN Resolution. If that is passed then the backing by China and Russia would cease.

Pushing for a cease fire is not dependent on China and Russia acquiescing, that only happens once voted in the UN. While Russia will stand up to the USA, indeed it is probably only supporting Assad because the USA is supporting the rebels, it would cease to do so if international opinion supported a ceasefire resolution.

If a resolution is passed it also means that no country can continue to back one side of the other.

The UN problem is then how to insert peace-keeping forces without first inserting peace-making forces. However it did work in Serbia.

[Airborne Aircrew]

1500+ dead by chemicals and its black dark outside.Wow, 1.5% of all estimated casualties were from chemicals and there is no convincing evidence to say who used them.

Why do you suddenly care about 1500 when you weren't screaming for us to go to war over the other 98,500? Why is that? There was probably an equal distribution of men, women and children killed by "conventional" means and they are just as dead as the 1500 so what, pray tell, is getting you people so all fired up?

Since we don't know for sure who used the chemicals the "excuse' that we are going in to stop potential terrorists gaining access holds no water. If the potential terrorists didn't use the weapons then weakening Assad pushes the chemical weapons into the hands of the potential terrorists. If you weaken Assad the only way to prevent the potential terrorists from getting the chemicals is to put boots on the ground, lots and lots of them. Good luck with that and, guess what, there's no knowing if the potential terrorists already have some of the chemicals and haven't used them. So the west has absolutely nothing to gain by going into Syria. Nothing, zero, zip, zilch, nada...

Any action against Syria will also bring Iran and potentially Russia and China into the mix.... Do we really want to start messing with them because 1.5% of the casualties in Syria were killed in a way some of us don't like?

Final question. If O'Bummer takes any offensive action in Syria does he have to send his Nobel Peace Prize back?

[Toadstool]

Why is no one pushing for a ceasefire, a separation of combatants, and a UN Green Line?

The international community and both sides in the conflict have actually pushed for a ceasefire, albeit sporadically. ISTR that an initiative to get both sides to the table was rejected by the rebels.

A green line...where? There are pockets of fighting all around the country. Where would you draw this squiggly green line?

While Russia will stand up to the USA, indeed it is probably only supporting Assad because the USA is supporting the rebels

Partly incorrect. Syria and Russia have been allies for some time, mostly due to the fact it is one of it's major arms importers in the region. I agree though that it is partly to do with Russian anger at the USA and the West for our actions over the last few years and Putin probably thinks enough is enough. It doesn't bode well though and I agree that the next few days/weeks could make for interesting times.

[TomJoad]

If O'Bummer takes any offensive action in Syria does he have to send his Nobel Peace Prize back?

You really do not do yourself any credit SASless - despite your previous calls to be respectful.:ugh:

[spooky3]

Bottom line the UK/US has lost all credibility, this thing will be decided by those with some clout not the UK/US end of!

[Broadsword***]

This thing will be decided by those with some clout not the UK/US end of!

If by that you mean Russia and China, they do have the luxury of being able to do pretty much whatever they want internationally, without having to pay heed to what the folks back at home think.

[Ronald Reagan]

Syria chemical attack is 'rebels' provocation in hope of intervention' - Putin - YouTube (http://youtu.be/SqNPdeN5K3E)

[dead_pan]

Any action against Syria will also bring Iran and potentially Russia and China into the mix

In the not too distant future the Iran issue is going to come to the fore and we'll be faced with the same question again. When it does, the stakes will be considerably higher and we may not be able to stop one particular ally in the region acting unilaterally (especially if we do back down, as I suspect we now will), possibly with its own nuclear weapons. By putting a big marker down now in Iran's puppet state may make China blink and realize that their present stance is courting disaster. My only concern is that the Russian's are too stupid to blink; they've found our weakness and will exploit to it to the full.

[spooky3]

If by that you mean Russia and China, they do have the luxury of being able to do pretty much whatever they want internationally, without having to pay heed to what the folks back at home think.


Precisely

[Airborne Aircrew]

Tom:

You really do not do yourself any credit SASless

If you can't tell the difference between an American hero and a British superhero then there is no hope for you... :E

[TEEEJ]

Ronald,
Putin clutching at straws yet again. Sounds like he has been on the Alex Jones conspiracy website. What next? Will he be offering up the Britam Defence fake e-mails as fact?

Maybe he should have been tasking his intelligence services to monitor all sides in the conflict? After August 21st I bet he has now tasked his intelligence services to keep an eye on Assads and government comms?

[TomJoad]

Tom:



If you can't tell the difference between an American hero and a British superhero then there is no hope for you... :E

If you two want to wear your underpants over your trousers then fellas knock yourselves out:ok:

But thanks for the corrcetion, my apology to SASless:\

[spooky3]

The days of western influence over middle eastern affairs are over, we are an irrelevance as far as they are concerned, we should just move on and let them get on with it.

[finestkind]

Way to many, way too hard. We chase our tail. There are instances in recent history (last 100 years) where genocide, senseless killing etc, have occurred with significant debates and finger pointing in later years as to why this was this allowed to happen. Why did we stand back and allow the defenceless, women and children not only be killed but brutally so.

" All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing".

What a wonderful statement. Can someone define what evil is (one man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter) and more importantly who the good men are?

[NutLoose]

This thread is starting to sound like the script to the G-20 summit. Still trying to work out with one of you is Angela Merkel.

:E

.

[Ronald Reagan]

TEEEJ, Putin is President of Russia, one of the most powerful nations on Earth with one of the finest intelligence agencies. What he says carries a great deal of weight with a great many people around the world. The same can be said of China.

dead_pan. Why are you so worried about Iran and it having nukes? If we are smart and don't keep causing them problems I think its highly unlikely they will simply attack us. Besides we have our own nuclear forces, enough to totally destroy them if they ever launched a nuclear strike against us. If they simply get nukes and use them to deter any foreign aggression against them then I see no problem. I don't lay awake at night worrying other nations will simply nuke us, though if we keep waging war across the region and make them hate us enough I guess anything is possible. If we actually worked with Iran, traded with them, treated them as we would any other nation then any attack by them upon anyone is unlikely.

As for Israel, well they can do what they wish, if they start something and bring Russia and China down on them so be it, I hope it does not happen. I would only ever give them military support if they were attacked in a large way to begin with, I would certainly wish to defend them then, but if they start it however then tough luck.

There is a good chance that with policies of continued intervention you could begin the war your trying to avoid!

[spooky3]

Thing is we have shown our hand like a bad poker player re Afgan/Iraq for zero achievement, the populace of the west have no confidence in their leaders and just don't want to know, like i say we are irrelevant, it will be leaders with clout that make the decisions not ours.

[ORAC]

Putin is President of Russia, one of the most powerful nations on Earth with one of the finest intelligence agencies. http://ilmondodifigenia.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/uomo-rotfl.gif

[Airborne Aircrew]

Tom:

If you two want to wear your underpants over your trousers then fellas knock yourselves out

What are underpants?

[Eclectic]

Putin is just on a propaganda trip for the gullible. There is no way he believes the report himself.

Anyhow the most comprehensive and neutral description of the Ghouta attack is on Wikipedia: 2013 Ghouta attacks - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Ghouta_attacks)

[dead_pan]

Why are you so worried about Iran and it having nukes?

Let me think...

:ugh:

[Ronald Reagan]

spooky3, I agree totally. Our leaders have made us totally irrelevant on the world stage it amazes me, some small nation with a tiny military strutting around as if we are still the British Empire. As time goes by expect us to have even less influence.

They want to keep doing interventions but have cut the military to something as tiny as it is today.

[dead_pan]

it will be leaders with clout that make the decisions not ours

Maybe more clout (in this instance) but absolutely no principles. Theirs is a truly depressingly and bleak view of the world.

[Toadstool]

IMHO Iran wants Nukes because it wants to be safe. Yes I agree that the sheer stupidity of some of their leaders regarding Israel means that we are wary of them. If you look at it from their point of view you can imagine how they feel. The West have been meddling in Iran for some time now, even to the point of being complicit in overthrowing a government and replacing a leader with a puppet.

In addition to this, it is bordered on both sides by countries with whom it has either been at war or has been occupied by troops of countries who are blockading it economically. There have been numerous threats and rumours of attacks by other countries against its facilities and indeed, the stuxtnet attacks which crippled their reactors. Lets not forget that Obama himself said that such attacks on the USA would be considered an act of war.

Now of course things are slightly different. There is a new leader in power who even tweeted greetings and congratulations to Israel on its last holiday.

I don't believe Iran, one of the oldest civilisations in the world would seriously attack Israel unless the country and its leaders had a death wish. In order for Iran to be completely safe from a perceived attack, they would like a nuclear weapon, if only to give them a bargaining chip, just as North Korea has done.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Now of course things are slightly different. There is a new leader in power who even tweeted greetings and congratulations to Israel on its last holiday.

If that isn't the most naive statement since Neville Chamberlain said there would be peace in his time then I don't know what is... :ugh:

[Toadstool]

Oh AA you old curmudgeon, although of course the message from Iran's new leader was greeted by Israel and the West with a less than lukewarm reception. Its a start though don't you agree, or do you prefer Ahmadinejacket?

Are you saying that policies, ideals etc can't change?

Oh ye of little faith. From small acorns....

I may be naive, but hopefully there are others with slightly more influence and adaptability who may be more receptive.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Toadstool:

Did you see the recent report that says that communications from Iran into Iraq are instructing people to attack the US embassy and US interests should the US take any action in Syria?

Google it... It's not hard work... Trusting what the mass media is feeding you is easier... But you end up being fooled by people you probably are brighter than...

Just a thought...

[TEEEJ]

Ronald,

Will you ever learn in regards to Infowars and other similar websites? Debka has the Chinese Navy already secretly positioned off the Syrian Coast. :ugh:

I notice that infowars has already put their spin on it with the following.

The report states that additional PLA warships have also been sent to the region but that their identity is unknown.

Not a single mention of why the Chinese vessels are in the region in the first place. I wonder why? The reason is to suck in the gullible that actually think that China has dispatched these vessels specifically for the Syrian crisis.

The Jinggangshan is part of the international anti-piracy patrols off Somalia and the region.

The 15th convoy fleet comprises three ships -- amphibious docking vessel Jinggangshan and missile frigate Hengshui from the navy's Nanhai Fleet, and supply ship Taihu from the Beihai Fleet -- carrying three helicopters and 800 troops.

China sends escort fleet to Somali waters (http://eng.mod.gov.cn/Database/MOOTW/2013-08/09/content_4461311.htm)

The Task Force that was relieved.

Chinese naval escort task force calls at Singapore port (http://eng.mod.gov.cn/DefenseNews/2013-09/06/content_4464443.htm)

Quite amusing watching the conspiracy nuts get over excited in regards to this.

According to DEBKAfile, Beijing has already deployed a number of warships opposite Syria in secret. If the latest report is confirmed, this will be the largest Chinese deployment in the Middle East in its naval history :ugh:

A Chinese landing craft with 1,000 marines for Syria ? reports (http://www.debka.com/newsupdate/5640/)

[10Watt]

Broadsword***,

lovely map and nice to see Nigeria doing so well these days, ... just who

provides the "wad" for Freedom house to do this work ?

[GreenKnight121]

And also... what are the politics of that organization.

I can produce lots of such maps by myself, with no data whatsoever.

Unless a source that is accessible to the public accompanies such graphics then the graphic, however true it may be, has no actual validity whatsoever.

[downsizer]

I'm a little shocked that posters are also trying to claim Wikipedia as a good source!!!

[dead_pan]

According to DEBKAfile, Beijing has already deployed a number of warships opposite Syria in secret.


Well it depends how they define 'opposite'. They could mean the other side of the globe ;)

I'm not sure how anyone could deploy a warship to the Med w/o anyone noticing...


Posted from Pprune.org App for Android

[dead_pan]

If that isn't the most naive statement since Neville Chamberlain said there would be peace in his time then I don't know what is...

Yet you're all for non-intervention in Iran's puppet? Doesn't quite stack.


Posted from Pprune.org App for Android

[Eclectic]

I am shocked that posters don't think that Wiipedia is a good source.

[Broadsword***]

Broadsword***,

lovely map and nice to see Nigeria doing so well these days, ... just who

provides the "wad" for Freedom house to do this work ?

10Watt

I think the Mods binned the original post, as the map turned the page panoramic.

http://cfile208.uf.daum.net/image/213F1850518260FC2134B8

Linky to mahusive map: herehttp://pooyaka.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/freedom-map.png

Freedom House's funding is a fairly mixed bag (needless to say, Chinese and Russian donations are thin on the ground.)

Over $250,000
U.S. Agency for International Development
U.S. Department of State
The United Nations Democracy Fund

$100,000-$249,999
Google, Inc.
International League for Human Rights
Leon Levy Foundation
Lilly Enowment Inc.
The Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation
The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation
The Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Open Society Institute
Smith Richardson Foundation
Walter J. Schloss

$50,000-$99,999
The George W. Bush Institute
National Endowment for Democracy

$25,000-$49,999
21st Century ILGWU Heritage Fund
American Federation of Teachers
Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade
Daniel Rose
F.M. Kirby Foundation
The Iraq Foundation
The John Hurford Foundation
Open World Leadership Center
Ottaway Foundation
The Albert Shanker Institute
Visa, Inc.
William H. Taft IV

$10,000-$24,999
Amgen Corporation
British Embassy Astana
Carleton S. Fiorina
David Nastro
Embassy of Canada to the United States
Embassy of the United Kingdom to the United States
Free Voice
Goli Ameri
Irish Aid
MacLeod Family Trust
Philip D. Harvey
Taiwan Foundation for Democracy
United Nations Development Fund for Women
William S. Edgerly
Yen Chuang Foundation

$5,000-9,999
Carter Center
D. Jeffrey Hirschberg
The Harman Family Foundation
The Irfan Kathwari Foundation, Inc
Jennifer Windsor
John C. Whitehead
Kenneth Juster
Theodore N. Mirvi

[Heathrow Harry]

Argentina & Mongolia are GREEN????? :yuk::yuk:

[Broadsword***]

Argentina
Freedom in the World 2013

OVERVIEW:

The government of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in 2012 continued indirect government censorship through the discriminatory allocation of official advertising and increased unfair tax treatment of political opponents. Official corruption remained a problem, with Vice President Amado Boudou becoming the latest government official to face allegations of illegal enrichment. Meanwhile, Argentina also continued to try and convict perpetrators of human rights violations committed during the “dirty war”.
More Argentina | Freedom House (http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2013/argentina)

Mongolia
Freedom in the World 2013

OVERVIEW:

Parliamentary elections held in June 2012 were deemed to have been free and fair, further confirming Mongolia’s status as Asia’s only post-socialist democracy. The election was won by a coalition of the Democratic Party, Justice Coalition, and Civil Will Green Party, led by Prime Minister Norovyn Altankhuyag. In August, former president Nambaryn Enkhbayar was convicted on corruption charges and sentenced to 2 1/2 years in jail. Pervasive corruption remained a problem in 2012, particularly in the country’s mining sector. More Mongolia | Freedom House (http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2013/mongolia-0)

[Pontius Navigator]

The population of Syria is about 22m. About 74% are Sunni, 16% are Alwari and 10% Christian.

About 30% are refugees or in need of aid.

As most of the insurgents are from that Sunni group it is clear that an attack on Assad's minority is a support of a revolution.

IIRC the US support of Castro was support of a revolution and that went well didn't it.

Despots and dictators may be minority and oppressive rulers but they do bring stability.

Western freedoms to non-western peoples who have not previously been free seem to bring instability.

Maybe the vocal majority (in UK) know a truth when their politicians don't.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Dead Pan:

Yet you're all for non-intervention in Iran's puppet? Doesn't quite stack.

Where's the threat to Europe or the USA? Stacks perfectly my old son, stacks perfectly...

[TomJoad]

Dead Pan:



Where's the threat to Europe or the USA? Stacks perfectly my old son, stacks perfectly...

I am right in thinking them Airborne that your credo is - no intervention unless there is a threat to us? Serious question, there has been so much flip flopping on this thread that it is hard to keep track:ok:

Re underpants - clue in the name, bit like Airbourne Aircrew;)

[Ronald Reagan]

With all this build up its going to be great if Congress votes no! If it does go ahead and Iran or/and Russia get directly involved, even if they simply start giving lots of weapons to Assad it could get very messy. I suppose our leaders desire to fight for Al Qaeda is so great they cannot help themselves.
I so hope Congress votes a great big NO!

[Airborne Aircrew]

Tom:

I believe I made my position fairly clear right here (http://www.pprune.org/8036467-post1311.html).

Ronald:

I agree... Egg production in the USA will have to double to generate the amount that will be on O'Bummer's face...

[SASless]

Flip Flopping? In your mind perhaps....but not by those who oppose any Military Action against Syria.

We have all been firmly and inalterably opposed and remain so.

Perhaps you are confused and think you are posting to a different thread somehow.....or that is one of your throw away lines you like to use.

[TomJoad]

Tom:

I believe I made my position fairly clear right here (http://www.pprune.org/8036467-post1311.html).



Yeah I took a look at that but it didn't addresses the question I asked. And it's a genuine question - no hidden agenda - I would like to know.

Do you think we should ever intervene when there is no direct threat to us?

Tom

[TomJoad]

Flip Flopping? In your mind perhaps....but not by those who oppose any Military Action against Syria.

We have all been firmly and inalterably opposed and remain so.

Perhaps you are confused and think you are posting to a different thread somehow.....or that is one of your throw away lines you like to use.

SASless,

The questions we ask, the statements we make are always of our own mind fella. Well mines are anyway, hope yours belong to you.:ok:

So, just in case there is still any ambiguity, in my mind, there has been lots of posturing on the thread. Lots of what appears to be strongly held opinion and not any lack of puerile mud slinging at our politicians. So like I said just wanted a straightforward opinion. Maybe you could share your thoughts on the question. Don't worry if you don't want to. Cheers fella.:ok:

[SASless]

Post 1285 back on 7 June in a direct response to PN....was one such post.


PN,



I do not believe the President has any authority to order an Attack on the Syrian Government.....NONE.

The 1973 War Powers Act grants three options for the President in ordering our Military to attack.

1- In response to an Attack
2- To prevent an Imminent Attack
3- By authorization of Congress

Under our Constitution only Congress may Declare War.

The Syrians have not attacked us, and do not have the capability to do so, and have not threatened to do so.

In plain language, I am absolutely dead set against any attack against the Syrian Government by US Military forces.

I think there are many other options and considerations that need to take place first that would both be far more effective, less costly in lives (ours and theirs), and would be better received by the World community and the Islamic Nations and Peoples than an Attack of any kind.

Right now....the American People by an 8-1 or 9-1 margin agree with my position.

It is only the political elite in this country that are pushing for this War.





Or....back on 4 Sep.....

AK.....that is exactly my point....or hoped you would understand that was anyway.

Exactly....what the hell have the Syrians done to the United States of America.....that gives us the right to Attack them?

That is the thrust of my arguments for the past ten days...to two weeks.

I wrote the first part somewhat tongue in cheek trying to suggest that if we as a Nation decide to wage War....then we as a Nation....should gear up for it....go on a Total War footing. Mobilize the Reserves, start conscription, convert our manufacturing to strictly military goods and only those absolutely necessary consumer goods, enact rationing, and then....focus our every effort on wreaking havoc upon the Enemy whoever and where ever they are.

Here is a video of yesterdays Senate Hearings....actually one small segment.

General Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs (sounds of spitting heard), was unable to answer the question "What is our Objective for this Attack the President wants us to authorize (or words to that effect)?". His response....."I don't know.".

Kerry, Hagel, and Dempsey made like the Three Stooges yesterday....and they are Obama's A-Team?

Rand Paul's Epic Showdown with John Kerry - Fox Nation


One key comment by Senator Paul.....he mentions "Not one American has told me they support a Military Attack of any kind on Syria!".

My Democrat Senator's Facebook page had over 500 posts on it....and less than five offered any support for an attack and none called outright for an attack.

The American People are not for this....not at all....it is the Democrat Party Party and the Obama Regime pushing for it. Most Democrats shall vote for the Resolution Authorizing the Attack simply because they cannot bear to see Obama embarrassed over this. He fecked it up when he made the Red Line comments, did not start developing a Coalition, did not take it to foreign leaders, and then Assad opted for the "Or Else" and Obama was caught flat footed between bases. Right now he is doing that old Baseball Run Down thing....and no matter how he tries....he is going to lose....either in Congress or in the eyes of the American People.
Last edited by SASless; 4th Sep 2013 at 19:26.


If you go way back to the very early few pages you will see where I opined that at the end of Gulf War I, we should have road marched our Army to the Med and loaded it on Ships there.....removing Assad on our way through Syria. Had we done that....we would have accomplished what Obama seems to be trying to do now but we would have had all of the assets we needed on hand and an Army that was finely honed for Combat.

It would have been just as wrong then as the proposed Attack today is....but perhaps would have met with far less resistance both at home and abroad.

I have wondered how things would be today in the Region had we done that back in the mid -90's and how it would have turned out re Egypt, Libya, and Lebanon.

[TomJoad]

With all due respect you are telling me what your constitution thinks not you. I was seeking your opinion on the justness of intervention where there is no direct threat to us. I only raised it because AAs position of clarity on the issue in his previous post. Look, you clearly don't want to engage so let's just leave it there. Perhaps I was wrong maybe we do not all post our own minds thoughts. As always, cheers fella.:ok:

[air pig]

Gentlemen, we have now come to a position of stalemate on all sides. I suggest that we leave this discussion until action is taken by the outsiders in this conflict.

As I see it:

The UK, not going to do anything unless in concert with the USA after a Security Council resolution, which will not be forthcoming and there is no hope of pushing a debate and agreement in Parliament.

The USA, sends cruise missiles in, is that an act of war and a war crime and in conflict with the US Constitutionas they have not been attacked and therefore have no right of retaliation in self defence.

The Russians, sends more supplies, assistance and keep a warm water port in the Med.

The Chinese, as above.

The Iranians, as above also keeping their lines open to Hizboullah in Lebenon

The EU, incapable of militarily taking part unless the USA starts operations and supports the the EU forces with intelligence (contradiction in terms) C4ISTAR tankers S/DEAD and heavy lift.

The UN, incapable of anything unable to act and deadlocked in the Security Council.

We have had in two years many thousands of deaths for which little has raised concerns in general. The use of chemical weapons has moved it the front of peoples consciousness, but the electorates of both the UK and US want little if anything and are in fact hostile to the idea of intervention in any form. The have been deceived in the past from Iraq onwards through the so called Arab Spring and look what a disaster that has been, remember Libya and Egypt. In the former Hiliary Clinton, you and Obama bear responsibility for the deaths of the Ambassador, by your actions or lack of at a critical moment. Sometimes what countries need is a dictator with his knee on the throat of the population to maintain a 'civilised' society.

I am afraid the stupidity of Obama stating publically that the use of CW was a 'red line' is typical of politicians who let their mouths flap in the heat of the moment to obtain a headline which comes back to bite them in the a**e when they have to make good that statement. This is a classic of my old headmaster, 'whenever I open my mouth some fool says something'
.
I have posed the point before, what is the difference of being disembowelled by a burst of AK 47 fire, result of an artillery barrage or a Sarin attack. Many will die and continue to die in this conflict, it is religious, political and factional, outsiders who are not of the same culture or thought processes, such as beheading or shooting people because they don't pray at the right times or numbers at a set part of the day, do not comprehend or understand the insanity.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Tom:

Do you think we should ever intervene when there is no direct threat to us?

Each situation is different. If an ally is threatened then one might consider intervention but a civil war where no good will come of our action I say no.

[dead_pan]

AA - would the use of CW justify intervention? I know it hasn't in the past but this situation is different in that Syria may well have been put up to this, or at allowed to act in this manner, by its backers as a direct challenge to the west. You've agreed that Iran are a potential threat.

[Courtney Mil]

Regarding the idea that the US - or the UK for that matter - should only take military action if there is a direct threat or action against said countries doesn't chime with Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty:

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.


Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.


Again, not arguing for or against action in Syria (and not I'm suggesting that you're all a bunch of pacifist, bleeding-heart, gutless, appeasement monkies), I'm interested in how folks here would consider the situation in Europe under the Nazi boot. Should other nations stand back and tut quietly whilst millions were being gassed, shot, starved, experimented upon, etc? I'm not talking about the fact that we were already at war, I'm considering the moral arguments.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Dead pan:

until we know for sure used the weapons we are simply pointing the gun and pulling the trigger without a meaningful target.

[SASless]

Court,

When I see every single NATO country bellying up to the Bar with combat forces and Political Resolve I shall accept your view. Until then....I strongly object to my Country going it alone on this Fool's Errand.

[SASless]

TJ,

Off to the Peanut Gallery with you.

[TomJoad]

I'm interested in how folks here would consider the situation in Europe under the Nazi boot. Should other nations stand back and tut quietly whilst millions were being gassed, shot, starved, experimented upon, etc? I'm not talking about the fact that we were already at war, I'm considering the moral arguments.

One thing is for sure the prevailing thought from our allies back then wasn't hampered by the complex morality we have to day. Thank God for us they decided to intervene then.

[Courtney Mil]

I shall accept your view

I din't express a view, did I. I thought I'd simply stated a part of the NATO treaty and asked a question. :ok:

[TomJoad]

Tom:



Each situation is different. If an ally is threatened then one might consider intervention but a civil war where no good will come of our action I say no.

Thanks AA.:ok:

[TomJoad]

TJ,

Off to the Peanut Gallery with you.

As telling as ever SASless.:D

[TomJoad]

Regarding the idea that the US - or the UK for that matter - should only take military action if there is a direct threat or action against said countries doesn't chime with Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty:

.

I may be wrong here so please correct me if I am; didn't we use Article 5 as justification for standing with the US when they went into Afghanistan post 9/11? Again I stand by to be corrected but. I think it was the only time article 5 has been invoked in NATOs history. If so, then intervention only if we are directly threatened, does not appear to be immutable - not on our past record. Without question, as others have said the ghosts of our involvement in Iraq are having a heavy influence here.

[air pig]

I may be wrong here so please correct me if I am; didn't we use Article 5 as justification for standing with the US when they went into Afghanistan post 9/11? Again I stand by to be corrected but. I think it was the only time article 5 has been invoked in NATOs history. If so, then intervention only if we are directly threatened, does not appear to be immutable - not on our past record. Without question, as others have said the ghosts of our involvement in Iraq are having a heavy influence here.

Article 5, if I remember correctly was invoked by the USA on 9/11 as the RAF deployed an E3 to the States.

Collective defence

The principle of collective defence is at the very heart of NATO’s founding treaty. It remains a unique and enduring principle that binds its members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit of solidarity within the Alliance.

This principle is enshrined in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. It provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.

NATO invoked Article 5 of the Washington Treaty for the first time in its history following the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States.


From the NATO website.

[ORAC]

Glenn Beck, Savage, Levin Join Rush in Opposing Attack (http://www.newsmax.com/newswidget/Beck-Savage-Levin-Limbaugh/2013/09/07/id/524370?promo_code=EB8D-1&utm_source=National_Review&utm_medium=nmwidget&utm_campaign=widgetphase1)

Conservative talk radio hosts are among those leading the charge in opposition to military action in Syria, offering predictions of dire consequences and criticizing President Barack Obama's strategy.

From Glenn Beck and Mark Levin to Rush Limbaugh and Michael Savage, conservative talk show hosts lashed out at Obama's plans to attack Syria, with Hugh Hewitt one of the few voices supporting the action..........

The opposition is not confined to television and radio airwaves. The website RightWingNews conducted an email poll of conservative bloggers and found overwhelming opposition.

Of the 46 bloggers who responded, 84.8 percent answered "No" to the question of whether they thought Congress should give Obama authorization for any sort of military operation in Syria. Only 7 said that Congress should grant approval.

[NutLoose]

Did i get the feeling Kerry's news briefing today was an attempt to move away from Military action?

[Broadsword***]

Conservative talk radio hosts are among those leading the charge in opposition to military action in Syria, offering predictions of dire consequences and criticizing President Barack Obama's strategy.

The key words here are 'conservative talk radio hosts'. If Obama said today was Sunday, those clowns would find an excuse to argue that it was not.

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

I'm interested in how folks here would consider the situation in Europe under the Nazi boot. Should other nations stand back and tut quietly whilst millions were being gassed, shot, starved, experimented upon, etc?

I think you might find that nasty chaps stamping into someone elses Country to steal things and be generally beastly is not quite the same as chaps stealing and being beastly inside their own Country. This may be particularly true when some of the beastliness isn't illegal inside their own Country. Just a thought.

[TomJoad]

Did i get the feeling Kerry's news briefing today was an attempt to move away from Military action?

In the interview posted on the BBC site he makes it clear that he believes that there is no military solution but he is determined that Syria must be held accountable by the international community. He makes reference to what they are now calling the crossing of an "international red line". We must wait now to see what comes out of his further meetings.

BBC News - John Kerry: 'There is no military solution' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24008545)

[TomJoad]

I think you might find that nasty chaps stamping into someone elses Country to steal things and be generally beastly is not quite the same as chaps stealing and being beastly inside their own Country. This may be particularly true when some of the beastliness isn't illegal inside their own Country. Just a thought.

So the acid test is whether the crime is not against property rather than humanity - humanity falling below the bar, surely not!. Legality by what measure ?

[dead_pan]

until we know for sure used the weapons

Now you're beginning to sound like Putin. We will never know for sure, however the evidence is pointing pretty strongly in one direction, with scant if any in any other.

[NutLoose]

I wonder if the no military solution is because Putin has inferred that they will get involved ?

[Eclectic]

Here's pretty good article by Russian 2-star Army PVO general on Syrian AD and its potential vs NATO strike

Íàöèîíàëüíàÿ îáîðîíà / Ãåîïîëèòèêà / ÏÂÎ Ñèðèè: ñïàñåíèå èëè èëëþçèÿ? (http://www.oborona.ru/includes/periodics/geopolitics/2012/1008/17389386/detail.shtml)

Use your browser auto translate.

[dead_pan]

I wonder if the no military solution is because Putin has inferred that they will get involved ?

He's done more than inferred - he pretty much said as much at the end of the G20. He was always going to back Assad, it was just a matter of how far. Now we know.

This looks like our Cuba moment...

[Airborne Aircrew]

Tom:

He makes reference to what they are now calling the crossing of an "international red line".

That's him trying to pull O'Bummer's arse out of the fire... Without a sensible plan etc. he was stupid to have made that statement. But, funnily enough, he made it anyway.

[SASless]

Back in 1963, Hans Morgenthau was quite vocal in his opposition to the Vietnam War has this to say about the Government's push to become engaged. It holds to the current situation. Bold Text is my doing.

The Constitution assigns to Congress the right to declare war. How can Congress discharge this function if its members and the citizens who have elected them are precluded from discussing the merits of the issues that might lead to war? The Constitution implies that Congress has a choice in the matter of war. How can it make that choice if neither it nor the people it represents have the right to debate the issues? To say that the most momentous issues a nation must face cannot be openly and critically discussed is really tantamount to saying that democratic debate and decision do not apply to the questions of life and death and that, as far as they are concerned, the people have given carte blanche to one man. Not only is this position at odds with the principles of democracy, but it also removes a very important corrective for governmental misjudgment. –HANS MORGENTHAU, APRIL 3, 1965


General H. R. McMaster, in his book "Dereliction of Duty" ends his account by saying the following:

The War in Vietnam was not lost in the field, nor was it lost on the front pages of the "New York Times" or on the College Campuses. It was lost in Washington, D.C., even before Americans assumed sole responsibility for the fighting in 1965 and before they realized the Country was at War;indeed, even before the first American Units were deployed. The disaster in Vietnam was not the result of impersonal forces but a uniquely human failure, the responsibility for which was shared by President Johnson and his principle military and civilian advisers. The failings were many and reinforcing: arrogance, weakness, lying in the pursuit of self-interest, and above all, the abdication of responsibility to the American People.


I maintain we are seeing exactly the same thing happen right here before our eyes. Obama and his military and civilian advisers are repeating those same mistakes in order to support a failed Presidency all the while ignoring the Will of the People.

[Eclectic]

Assad probes Akrotiri: RAF Scrambles Typhoons over Cyprus after 'Goad and Probe Sortie' by Rogue Syrian Jet - IBTimes UK (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/504481/20130908/raf-typhoon-jets-syria-cyprus-turkey-f.htm)

[SASless]

Now he's done it!

Threat to a NATO Ally....rally all of NATO, recall Parliament.....muster the Horse Guard....Tally Ho! Chaps!;)

[TomJoad]

You really are an excitable chap SASLess. Ask the staff to leave the lights on in your room tonight:E

[Easy Street]

I'm interested in how folks here would consider the situation in Europe under the Nazi boot. Should other nations stand back and tut quietly whilst millions were being gassed, shot, starved, experimented upon, etc? I'm not talking about the fact that we were already at war, I'm considering the moral arguments. I'm against intervention in Syria because there are no clear "good" guys. Both sides have shown murderous intent and a rebel victory would spell the end for all sorts of minorities who could survive only in the relative stability of Assad's police state, so it's certainly not a clear-cut "intervene to save the xxx people from genocide". When there is no obvious right answer, the case for respecting the will of the international community is much stronger.

In Courtney's example there is one protagonist setting about a genocide, but with no threat of counter-genocide from the other side. There is thus a much clearer moral imperative to intervene on the side of the victims, and while achieving international consensus is never likely to be 'easy', it would surely have been more straightforward than in the Syria example. We saw this in the Balkans, where the Serbs showed un-reciprocated genocidal intent.

So, I think it's perfectly possible to have a consistent moral viewpoint that leads one to be pro-intervention in some cases, and anti-intervention in others. There's no black and white in this argument!

Edited to add: The "good" side will never be whiter-than-white; the trick is to see through the actions of rogue elements and identify the true intent behind each side's actions.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Tom:

SAS is one of the least excitable chaps around... ;)

[TomJoad]

Tom:

SAS is one of the least excitable chaps around... ;)

Must be the underpants then tonight - he's maybe got them on too tight.;)

Which one is he?

Batman and Robin - Only Fools and Horses Christmas Special - YouTube

[Pontius Navigator]

Nice article, except it relates to an incident on 2nd Sep I believe. Also typical media photo grab - get me a picture of two Typhoons.

One is a T1 the other an F2 and neither is armed.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Tom:

<Snigger>

[NutLoose]

Have we the budget to arm them?

[dead_pan]

SAS is one of the least excitable chaps around

At the rate he's going he'll soon only be seeing his own posts. Still, at least he'll be happy (hopefully he won't disagree with something he posted earlier and send himself off to the 'Peanut Gallery').

BTW I'd be amazed if he's reading this as its a dead cert I would have crossed one of his red lines in the past (my joke about Barbara Bush for starters ;))

[Airborne Aircrew]

Dead pan:

That doesn't make SAS excitable, in fact, quite the opposite... He's so laid back he'll only converse with intellects that exceed 85-90 unless the individual is also respectable. He cuts off those that might make him excited....

You should try it... ;)

[TomJoad]

Hell I'd need to loose 120 IQ pints just to say hello to him :E

Guys the topic is serious enough - lighten up;)

[Airborne Aircrew]

Tom:

Hell I'd need to loose 120 IQ pints just to say hello to him

How many IQ pints are you posting from? http://www.hqrafregiment.net/images/smilies/laughingat.gif

[TomJoad]

Tom:



How many IQ pints are you posting from? http://www.hqrafregiment.net/images/smilies/laughingat.gif

Oh bless AA its a quote from The Big Bang Theory - sorry over your head.

At least we have lightened the mood:) Anyway where is Batman?

[500N]

"Anyway where is Batman?"

Isn't he right next to YOU Robin ? :O

[Airborne Aircrew]

Tom:

Oh bless AA its a quote from The Big Bang Theory - sorry over your head.I'm sorry... I don't watch that mindless, mass debilitating television. I had to look up "The Big Bang Theory"... I'm sure it's hilarious. Not really quality comedy though is it, but each to their own, I'm sure you giggle uncontrollably. Is it the "canned laughter" that initiates that little tickle in your throat?

I waste my time engaging my daughter in things that would educate her... As I said, each to their own...

Of course, right now, I'm watching Football... The American version.... :ok:

[NutLoose]

"Anyway where is Batman?"

Isn't he right next to YOU Robin ?

They drive a 3 wheeler too, called Tornado.

[TomJoad]

Tom:

I'm sorry... I don't watch that mindless, mass debilitating television. I had to look up "The Big Bang Theory"... I'm sure it's hilarious. Not really quality comedy though is it, but each to their own, I'm sure you giggle uncontrollably. Is it the "canned laughter" that initiates that little tickle in your throat?

I waste my time engaging my daughter in things that would educate her... As I said, each to their own...

Of course, right now, I'm watching Football... The American version.... :ok:


Oh dear, I feel so unworthy now! It's actually filmed in front of a live audience so no cans - but that is a trivial observation. Don't feel that educating the yung uns is ever a waste of your time; but as you say to each their own personal philosophy. American version of football eh, who would have though:D

Anyway, back to Syria...

[TomJoad]

They drive a 3 wheeler too, called Tornado.

:D:D:D

Yes but which one is AA and which is SASless?

[dead_pan]

That doesn't make SAS excitable, in fact, quite the opposite... He's so laid back he'll only converse with intellects that exceed 85-90 unless the individual is also respectable. He cuts off those that might make him excited....

You should try it...

Thanks for the advice however that may be a little difficult seeing as I usually ply my trade over on JB, unless of course you're talking aggregate IQs :ok:

[tartare]

That Russian article Eclectic posted is quite interesting.
80 per cent of the Syrian air defence arsenal is `obsolete'.
That piece certainly puts paid to the claims of a very modern and networked AD network.

[Eclectic]

Someone's attempt at an infographic of the naval disposition: http://i.imgur.com/8dcb00X.jpg

[SASless]

At the rate he's going he'll soon only be seeing his own posts.


Now DP....if I were an excitable type perhaps I might have made a rash decision re your continued longevity upon my screen....but as I am not....I have not.

The way to my Peanut Gallery is not by having a differing view or opinion.....it is all contingent to the manner in which it is rendered.

If we did not differ on topics....how boring it would be.

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

So the acid test is whether the crime is not against property rather than humanity - humanity falling below the bar, surely not!.

I'm not sure I actually understand the question; or if it was a question. I wasn't trying to start a debate on the balance of seriousness of offences against property against those against the person.

Anyway,


Legality by what measure ?

The measure is whether a Country has gone into another country with the intention of subduing it or otherwise asserting its self appointed authority (eg NAZI Germany). Balanced to this is a Country exercising its own authority and laws within its own borders (eg Syria). The point I was making is that the actions of what the "Nazi boot" did in Europe is not relevant or equivalent to what Assad may or may not be doing in his own Country. I'm not saying that its morally right, but legallity doesn't always mirror morality.

My own view is that until the head shed UN decrees that foreign intervention is legal, we should keep our beaks out. If, on the other hand, yer man Assad was to be daft enough to make a direct offensive threat to a NATO Member (and not simply responding in principle to a threat made by a NATO Member), that becomes a whole new argument.

[SASless]

The German BND says now that Assad did not order the Chemical Weapon Attack....or at least their intercepts do not prove he did.

Now how does this alter the situation?

Does this become a situation that Assad should address, perhaps with UN assistance?

Is there a deal that can be struck between the USA/UK/France/China/Russia that will stop the march to War and return this to the UN for discussion?

Syria chemical weapons attack not ordered by Assad, says German press | World news | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/08/syria-chemical-weapons-not-assad-bild)

[lomapaseo]

Someone's attempt at an infographic of the naval disposition: http://i.imgur.com/8dcb00X.jpg

they all seem to be heading east, is that where the beer is?

[SASless]

My most City's most Liberal Newspaper published this Editorial. It pretty well sums up the local feelings on the proposed strike Obama is trying to push.

When he loses the Journal's Editorial Board....folks he is in deep Doo-Doo!



President Obama’s breathtaking bumbling toward war must end. Congress should nix his request for approval of using military force in Syria. And once Congress says no, Obama should forget any idea of going ahead with a strike anyway.
There’s been widespread opposition across our land to a strike, with people from the far left to the far right agreeing that it would be lunacy. Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry can’t even supply clear answers about the ramifications of a potential strike, including what their end game would be. They say a strike would not lead to war, but there are no guarantees.
We mourn the deaths of more than 1,400 Syrians by chemical weapons, allegedly dispensed on orders from Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. But we’d grieve a lot more over the deaths of U.S. troops and the “collateral damage” deaths of Syrian civilians, as would almost certainly happen if our country strikes Syria. Bombing would also create more unrest throughout the Middle East and more terror threats against this country. And Russia would not take kindly to a strike against its friend Syria.
Our country would face all those prospects almost alone, with few countries backing us, and certainly not the U.N. We’d be entering another country’s civil war. And many of the rebels fighting Assad are said to be aligned with al-Qaida, the very terrorists who wreak carnage on our overseas troops.
We endorsed President Obama in 2012 and have often supported him on this page. But we strongly disapprove of his handling of the whole Syrian situation. He set the red line over the use of chemical weapons in Syria (even though he said last week that he didn’t set it, the world did). Then, once evidence of that use was produced, he was uncertain of what to do, finally throwing the matter to Congress.
He’s spoken in detail about how a strike might go down, telegraphing potential strategy to Assad, giving the dictator plenty of time to load potential target sites with women and children. An American bomb hitting one of those sites would be a nightmare.
The American people aren’t stupid. They learned well from President George W. Bush’s actions against Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein: a rush to war on faulty reasons with no end game in sight. Now many Americans are rightly saying: not again.
Congress must hear the people, say no to a strike and demand that Obama pursue all other options, including persuading the U.N. to take economic sanctions against Syria.
If Congress says no to a strike, we believe the president will realize he can’t go this one alone. He’ll lose face. But that’s a far better outcome than American troops losing their lives in another country’s civil war.

[dubbleyew eight]

if you read "Legacy of Ashes" and the history of the FBI an entirely plausible situation, repeated many times in history, is that the president draws a line in the sand.
said event occurs as a CIA false flag exercise.
Assad denies that the country ever stepped over the president's line.
president drums up UN support and then sends in the military.
american commercial interests **** over the country concerned and everyone makes a handsome profit.

has Qatar really been trying to overthrow Assad to push a natural gas pipeline through Syria to Europe to knock off the russian gas supply monopoly?

when the hatred of the world turns full focus on the americans it is doubtful that they will have a friend in the entire world.

[BEagle]

Perhaps Obama, McCain and Kerry should send themselves a TLAM or two to 'punish' the US for its own use of chemical weapons in Viet Nam:

From the BBC:

London surgeons help 'children of Agent Orange'.

The Vietnam War ended nearly 40 years ago, but the casualties continue as birth defects plague the country.

There are claims that thousands of children continue to be born with horrific facial deformities due to the 20 million gallons of Agent Orange chemical sprayed by the United States.

The Vietnamese call the disfigured youngsters 'the children of Agent Orange'.

Da Nang in central Vietnam is thought to have the highest level of congenital deformity in the world.

See BBC News - London surgeons help 'children of Agent Orange' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-23632245) if your Internet access so permits.

[The Old Fat One]

A timely reminder from Beags, that in war, morality, like truth, is the perogative of the powerful.

[BEagle]

At least the UK's use of chemical and biological warfare in WW2 was fairly limited.

It seems that some bomber crews would empty the 'Elsan' chemical toilet over Germany. The Germans discovered this and complained to the Swiss Red Cross, so the crews were told that the practice had to stop!

[Pontius Navigator]

But we’d grieve a lot more over the deaths of U.S. troops and the “collateral damage” deaths of Syrian civilians, as would almost certainly happen if our country strikes Syria.

And even if there were none, the cynic in me thinks it would not be difficult to show the civilian casualties.

Media propaganda is a powerful tool and some media need little persuasion to accept a story at face value.

[The Old Fat One]

At least the UK's use of chemical and biological warfare in WW2 was fairly limited.

Only because old fatso didn't get his way...

I should be prepared to do anything [Churchill's emphasis] that would hit the enemy in a murderous place. I may certainly have to ask you to support me in using poison gas. We could drench the cities of the Ruhr and many other cities in Germany ..., and if we do it, let us do it one hundred per cent.

—Winston Churchill, 'Most Secret' PRIME MINISTER'S PERSONAL MINUTE to the Chiefs of Staff, 6 July 1944[9]

How strange that the website devoted to disabusing Churchill myths sidesteps this one :=

Your point was perfectly valid Beags...and it applies to us, just the same as everybody else.

[dead_pan]

has Qatar really been trying to overthrow Assad to push a natural gas pipeline through Syria to Europe to knock off the russian gas supply monopoly?

This has been intimated before, however one would have thought an easier option would have been to route one up through Iraq to Turkey to hook-up with the various gas pipelines being built westwards from the Caspian.

[NutLoose]

One feels Obama's chance has past him by, the time to have struck was the weekend before the summit when World opinion was in turmoil. It now leaves him in a position where World opinion will damn him if he does and there could well be consequences resulting from that, and World opinion will damn him as an indecisive leader if he doesn't, which also has consequences in that the World will think they can call his bluff as he has had to back down.

Either way he and that of his Administration is stuffed, everything going on now appears to be damage limitation.


..

[Eclectic]

Agent Orange was used as a de-foliant with terrible side effects. Assad has used Sarin against women and children over 14 times. It has no purpose other than to kill.

If anyone wants to know what happened at Ghouta there is now a lot of information.

The BBC feature article gives a quick overview: BBC News - Syria chemical attacks: What we know (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23927399)
The Wikipedia article has just about all the available facts and very many references: 2013 Ghouta attacks - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Ghouta_attacks)
The Brown Moses blog has a forensic analysis of the attack and the weapon system used: http://brown-moses.********.co.uk/
This MIT paper takes the academic road to events: http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/world/syria/iraq_syria.pdf

[BEagle]

One wonders what that pair of dangerous clowns, Kerry and Hague, will come up with at their London meeting today....:uhoh:

[Madbob]

I've been out of the loop for a long time but have been following this thread closely. One question does spring to mind with the Strategic Defence Review, Options for Change and the general reduction in real-terms spend by the UK is how much has this affected Porton Down?

Porton Down has rightly IMHO a low profile, but its importance as a research establishment and a centre of knowledge/advice to the government is immense especially now. As in most things in the defence arena, skills/knowledge acquired over years and years is quickly lost (vis land-based long range ASW/ASuW capabilities) and impossible/expensive to re-procure in the future.

I sincerely hope that Porton has been spared the bean-counters' axe, their forensic ability to analyse any evidence of CWs being used may be vitally important in any future prosecution for war crimes against Assad or indeed any other leader who uses CWs elsewhere. It would be very interesting to see if samples taken by the UN inspectors in Syria have been sent to PD for examination.

If so it would be another example of where "this little island" can be, and is, useful on the world stage.

MB

[glojo]

So many questions and what a ‘to do’
My brain tells me this is not my fight and this hunk of meat then bombards me with a thousand and one questions. WHY??? Why are we and in particular the US taking the moral high ground regarding this heinous act? Is any sane man (or woman) suggesting those innocent people were not victims of a poisonous gas attack?
Does any sane person not accept that government forces were shelling\bombarding that rebel held area during the relevant time of that attack? France and the USA state they have intelligence showing government forces wearing gas masks during the alleged time of this attack although this information has not been made public. If American so called ‘Intelligence’ told me it was daylight outside, I would look out the window just to confirm that suggestion. I do accept it is not beyond the powers of possibility that the rebels bombarded their own forces with chemicals but….
If I were the Syrian President and I was accused of this act then why oh why would I not insist on having the resident weapon inspectors come in IMMEDIATELY and carry out whatever tests they deem necessary? I say resident inspectors simply because they were but a short distance away from the attacked area (they were in the same city). Instead of inviting in these inspectors the Syrian Government refused entry and for days carried on bombarding that area in the FULL KNOWLEDGE that their actions were destroying any evidence that might be of use in the detection of what was used? Bottom line however is the FACT that the inspectors will NOT investigate who is responsible for the attack, but instead they are only tasked with trying to discover if a chemical was used and to me that is a farce!!
I am a sad person that listened to our parliamentarians debate this issue from start to the finish but what a farce. This was more about politicians claiming expenses for being recalled as opposed to educated people debating a serious topic.. Our government even had a female minister and one of her male assistants shut away in a small room having ‘a discussion’ rather than casting their vote over an issue as important as this. They claim not to have heard the bell but I wonder what bell they did hear when votes were being cast?:mad::mad:;)
When it came to those that contributed to this debate then this person certainly raised a number of points. I cannot stand this man but I must confess that I enjoy listening to him when he speaks.
Great Britain voted not to take action against Syria and I guess that is something we have to accept and at first I congratulated President Obama for his stance but then my brain decided to ask even more questions… If this issue was so important then should American politicians be recalled and discuss what actions should be taken, or are their holidays more of a priority? If chemical weapons are such a big no, no, then how do they justify Agent Orange (http://www.publichealth.va.gov/exposures/agentorange/basics.asp) Is that a chemical? Was it used against civilians? (as well as Americans)

If the US wants to draw a line on the ground and say this far, and no further then sadly they are making a HUGE rod for their own backs. Both North Korea and China (http://rense.com/general11/capture.htm)have humiliated this super power and is the USA now backing themselves into a corner in the Middle East? I accept that the use of chemical weapons is bad but what bigger slap in the face is there when we consider how a sovereign state has a captured US warship (http://www.9news.com/dontmiss/347882/630/USS-Pueblo-crew-wants-ship-returned) on display and uses it as a museum piece? US sailors were fired on, there were deaths and I believe this ship is still in commission. Is it right to take action against someone that lacks any ability to fight back, but ignore the deeds of those who can defend themselves?? The word bully comes to mind!!
If they do back down then what does this say to Iran if it insists on developing a nuclear weapon? Is this more about Super Powers flexing their muscles? Are both Russia and China giving the west the finger and saying keep out? Russia and China both of whom have an awful reputation when it comes to committing atrocities against their own population or countries they have occupied? (I am thinking Chechnya (http://en.rian.ru/russia/20130419/180737315.html) and Tibet (http://www.thetibetpost.com/en/outlook/opinions-and-columns/1375-chinas-abuse-of-human-rights-in-tibet-is-getting-worse)) It appears we dare not highlight their atrocities but it is okay to hammer smaller countries that commit lesser acts.
Should the USA take out Syrian Command and Control assets or should we look away and let these evil people carry on murdering innocent women and children? I am undecided as to me evil is evil but I just feel it wrong to differentiate and is it right that we are giving in excess of £400m a year in foreign aid to Syria and its neighbours? That to me is madness.
Would it be so wrong to use long range missiles to take out the command and Control capability of the Syrian Government? I ask this but straight away my brain throws another question at me.. What would the reaction be if these missiles were taken out by the latest surface to air Russian assets that might now be in place in Syria? would the US be embarrassed, would the Middle East laugh at the demise of this type of weapon?

I am not taking sides and am undecided about this issue but is force the right answer? No matter how we talk about this, if we drop missiles onto a sovereign state we are surely declaring war on that nation even if we do not actually say the words? Could Syria launch a retaliatory attack against Cyprus?

Regards
John the armchair warrior

[Eclectic]

More on Akrotiri being tested: Syria sends fighter jets to Cyprus - Israel News, Ynetnews (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4427330,00.html)

Seems the Turkish F16s weren't after our Typhoons after all. They were after the same Syrian intruders.

[NutLoose]

Britain's MOD confirms Syrian planes crossed into international space,

High flyers huh!

[Party Animal]

glojo,


Is any sane man (or woman) suggesting those innocent people were not victims of a poisonous gas attack?
Does any sane person not accept that government forces were shelling\bombarding that rebel held area during the relevant time of that attack?


I think the whole world is agreed that Sarin was used in the attack on the innocent people seen in various news broadcasts a few weeks ago.

However, clearly the majority of the world does not accept that government forces did it - or do not accept beyond all reasonable doubt at least.

Russia, China, Brazil, India etc, must be at least two thirds of the world population, most of whom are probably sane!

It's like an argument with the wife when she starts with the lines "Everybody knows....." ;)

[BEagle]

Use of Sarin might well have been an unathorised release by a local field commander, rather than directed by the government per se.

Of course al-Assad woudn't suggest this, as it would imply that he no longer had full control over his military forces.

Having just seen him on TV, followed shortly by some fat, smug American politician critical of Obama yet still advocating a large-scale attack, it seems that the hawks in the US are more concerned about Russian and 'Eye-raynian' influence in the area than they are in the facts specific to this incident.

al-Assad was altogether more credible than either the interviewer or that arrogant "Ahh'm an ex-military man" politician.

[Eclectic]

It is definitely Assad wot dun it: The Folly Of The False Flag Brigade - OpEd Eurasia Review (http://www.eurasiareview.com/08092013-the-folly-of-the-false-flag-brigade-oped/)

[Courtney Mil]

Well, even if it wasn't the Syrian Government in this case (which it was), they probably deserve a bit of a beating anyway. So no real harm done if we flatten a few of their military installations and then we find out it was just another dodgy dossier.

[dead_pan]

it seems that the hawks in the US are more concerned about Russian and 'Eye-ranian' influence in the area than they are in the facts specific to this incident

Indeed. The debate is whether the alleged use of CW by Iran's puppet constitute an adequate pretext for a military response, or do we hold fire and continue our existing strategy of containment, embuggeration (e.g. Stuxnet), and sitting on the Israelis?

[Pontius Navigator]

I may certainly have to ask you to support me in using poison gas. We could drench the cities of the Ruhr and many other cities in Germany ..., and if we do it, let us do it one hundred per cent.

Different times, different world. Gas was a recognised and not proscribed weapon of war in use a mere 26 years earlier. Nuclear WMD was being researched by both sides.

It was a very black and white war at that time. Only following the peace have things become less clear cut, no longer are States embraced in Total War.

The really telling point is the last one: let us do it one hundred per cent



It is no use holding a big stick and tapping it lightly so as to do little damage.

[BEagle]

We could drench the cities of the Ruhr and many other cities in Germany ..

Churchill's vengeful appetite for hitting cities, rather than military targets, is well-known.....

....certainly to the survivors of the Dresden attack.

Just how much face would the US lose if the President were to announce "It is clear that nothing is clear. Due to the lack of compelling, direct, unequivocal evidence and the severe collateral risk which would result from military action, we deem such action at this time to be inappropriate and call for all parties to arrange peace talks at a neutral location."

[SASless]

Beags,

The use of Agent Orange and a couple of other Herbicides was not Chemical Warfare in the conventional definition. The daft bastards just did not understand the after effects of its use to defoliate large areas of the countryside.

The US Veterans Administration finally admitted that Agent Orange was responsible for many illnesses and cancers and have included all those who were exposed to it during their service for Compensation upon determination we have Agent Orange Related problems.

We have to be fair in our laying of blame for birth defects as some do occur as a result of other causes.

If you want to fault the US Government for the use of Agent Orange that is fine....but do not describe it as Chemical Warfare in the context of what is being discussed. It was weed killer, applied to kill off vegetation, and was not deployed to with the intent to harm People.

We all know what Chemical Warfare is.....and Agent Orange is not.


DP,

A couple of comments.....the "Hawks" in the current situation are actually "Chicken Hawks" as they were against War before they were for it.

As to the new concern about Iran and Russia is they know they are beating a Dead Horse on Syria as the American People have seen through the silliness of their arguments for the proposed Attacks on Syria and they have to find another bogus excuse to continue their campaign to save Obama's Face.

It isn't going to work.....the American People are just flat assed utterly opposed to attacking Syria for any reason.

[downsizer]

Eclectic

Are you just ripping links from other websites now or do you have any input of your own? Why not just link to the thread on the site you are taking "your" posts from?

[dead_pan]

Just how much face would the US lose if the President were to announce "It is clear that nothing is clear. Due to the lack of compelling, direct, unequivocal evidence and the severe collateral risk which would result from military action, we deem such action at this time to be inappropriate and call for all parties to arrange peace talks at a neutral location."

Rather a lot, I would contend, given what has already been said. If the statement made some conciliatory remark about reflecting the national and international mood, not wanting to inflame an already delicate situation, whilst making it clear that the use and proliferation of all categories of WMD is condoned and will not be tolerated by the international community, and re-affirming the role and importance of the UN to act in such instances, then he might just get away with it.

[SASless]

DP,

Remember the Ego we are dealing with here....and the quality of advise he is getting from his White House Handlers....therein lies the real problem. Commonsense, statesmanship, and forward strategical thinking is not his or their strong points.

He got off his Teleprompter script and made the off the cuff comments about the Red Line business....and it has been all about CYA since then. Commonsense alone would have had him working with the UN Security Council Members to get a public statement condemning the use of Chemical Weapons even if the Members would not authorize force.

As usual....it has been Obama's Way or the Highway!

The guy is a complete Tosser who is nothing more than a Community Agitator who is in perpetual campaign mode despite having the obligation to "Lead" the Nation.

His policy of "Leading from Behind" alone should tell you what a Fool he is....and how poor his Advisers are....as One cannot lead from behind in any endeavor.

This is just the most dramatic failure of Obama's as the American Media cannot hide it from the Public....thank goodness for the International Media who owe no allegiance to Obama.

Why is it he has to go to Sweden to be asked tough direct questions?

[dead_pan]

As to the new concern about Iran and Russia is they know they are beating a Dead Horse on Syria as the American People have seen through the silliness of their arguments for the proposed Attacks on Syria and they have to find another bogus excuse to continue their campaign to save Obama's Face.

I don't think the reason is bogus - far from it. The threat from both was there for all to see from the outset. The thing is is that its hard for the man-in-the-street to make this connection, let alone comprehend the implications of action or inaction. I think you're right though that the Administration is getting a little desperate.

I wonder where we'd be now if Obama hadn't made that un-guarded comment...

[Lonewolf_50]

Broadsword:
International law is by no means clear that the use of military force must always be authorised by the UN Security Council. There is a developing legal framework for military intervention on humanitarian grounds. Known as the Responsibility to Protect, or R2P, it was born out of the humanitarian disasters of the 1990s in Kosovo and Rwanda.
"We'll make it up as we go along." Got it. I suppose that's how most laws and rules come to be ... :p
Why is no one pushing for a ceasefire, a separation of combatants, and a UN Green Line?
Pontius: Check out a map of where the fighting is, who controls what, and where the factions are. It isn't that simple. Even the Dayton Agreement took a lot of work and three reasonably well recognized spokesmen for their "sides" to get ironed out, and then about ten years of international support to achieve.
They are tired of wannabe soldiers who remain enamored of the lure of bloodless machine warfare.
I wrote a paper on this inanity at staff college, nearly 20 years ago, that got me into a little bit of hot water with my adviser. I had to redirect my efforts toward a different element of the topic. :mad:

Robert J Samuelson: (an economist)
Americans must be {war} weary. {He disagrees}
The truth is that for most Americans, the constant combat has imposed no
burdens, required no sacrifices and involved no disruptions. True, the money spent has been substantial. From 2001 to 2012, reckons the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan along with related operations cost $1.4 trillion. Although that’s a lot even by Washington standards, it pales next to all federal spending and the economy’s total production. From 2001 to 2012, federal spending totaled $33.3 trillion; the wars were 4 percent of that. Over the same period, the American economy produced $163 trillion of goods and services. War spending equaled nine-tenths of 1 percent of that.

As important, no special tax was ever imposed to pay war costs. They
were simply added to budget deficits, so that few, if any, Americans suffered a loss of income. It’s doubtful that much other government spending was crowded out by the wars.
doubleeweeightsaid event occurs as a CIA false flag exercise.

By your own words you condemn yourself.
has Qatar really been trying to overthrow Assad to push a natural gas pipeline through Syria to Europe to knock off the russian gas supply monopoly?
Good question. Do you have an answer, or are you "Just Asking Questions"
Nutloose:
One feels Obama's chance has past him by,
Passed him by.
glojo:
If I were the Syrian President and I was accused of this act then why oh why would I not insist on having the resident weapon inspectors come in IMMEDIATELY and carry out whatever tests they deem necessary? I say resident inspectors simply because they were but a short distance away from the attacked area (they were in the same city). Instead of inviting in these inspectors the Syrian Government refused entry and for days carried on bombarding that area in the FULL KNOWLEDGE that their actions were destroying any evidence that might be of use in the detection of what was used? Bottom line however is the FACT that the inspectors will NOT investigate who is responsible for the attack, but instead they are only tasked with trying to discover if a chemical was used and to me that is a farce!
You have put your finger on that which is "the international community" and "the media" and a lot else. Farce.
Britain's MOD confirms Syrian planes crossed into international space
It's legal to do that.
Use of Sarin might well have been an unathorised release by a local field commander, rather than directed by the government per se.
Of course al-Assad woudn't suggest this, as it would imply that he no longer had full control over his military forces.
If he court martials the nitwit who did that, it's might be a nail in Obama's "I'll bomb you" coffin. So why doesn't he? Se glojo's point up above.
Beags:
it seems that the hawks in the US are more concerned about Russian and 'Eye-raynian' influence in the area than they are in the facts specific to this incident.
That makes sense. Looking after America's interests is what the government is supposed to do. If Russian and Iranian interests and ours are in conflict, particularly in a given area, for damned sure our government needs to consider that ... so the "hawks" are at least thinking at the appropriate level. Whether I agree with them or not is another matter.

Some people are against this due to being displeased with Obama. I am against this as I don't see the point of acting unilaterally. It is to me a politcally bad move to do so. First get multinational support, then move on with a course of action.

FFS, get things in the right order.

[Pontius Navigator]

:D:D
Eclectic

Are you just ripping links from other websites now or do you have any input of your own? Why not just link to the thread on the site you are taking "your" posts from?

Yes I was wondering where eclectic was coming from - no real input and largely unknown sites. At least Wiki is a know and authority :)

He seems to specialise in posting links to other sites he has found. His following post however seems very good:

Twitter has a block button. It takes 3 clicks and...

Twitter has a block button. It takes 3 clicks and about 2 seconds to totally remove from your timeline anyone who you "take offence" at. There is also a report function so you can tell Twatter about...

Unashamedly I am playing the man, but he has a website A reasonable person's sensible commentary on the political environment ? Bruce On Politics (http://www.bruceonpolitics.com/) and appears to be Bruce Everiss a veteran games industry marketer.

[SASless]

I did a canvas of my Congressional Rep's a few minutes ago....and the Senators shall be voting for the use of Military Force.....no PR releases saying that or explaining the reasons they shall vote that way of course. No sense telling the Voters why you are voting completely opposite of what they want you to do.

The House Member is doing the "I have not decided yet thing.".....which is unusual for her. She has been there too long it would appear. Our newly elected folks are all on the record as being against any Military Action.

I despair for our nation...if the Political Elite are so immune to the voter's desires on this matter as to vote for something that the vast majority of the people are so strongly against.

I see some folks changing jobs over this come 2014 and again in 2016.

[dead_pan]

Some people are against this due to being displeased with Obama. I am against this as I don't see the point of acting unilaterally. It is to me a politcally bad move to do so. First get multinational support, then move on with a course of action.

How do you define multinational - more than two countries? And how do you define support - warm words, or something a little more tangible?

If Russian and Iranian interests and ours are in conflict, particularly in a given area, for damned sure our government needs to consider that ... so the "hawks" are at least thinking at the appropriate level.

In some respects it may actually be a good thing that the Administration has broken cover regarding their real intentions and concerns. It will focus minds on both sides of the divide, in the event anyone was in doubt as to why we're doing this.

[ORAC]

The really telling point is the last one: let us do it one hundred per cent Weinberger Doctrine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weinberger_Doctrine)

The United States should not commit forces to combat unless the vital national interests of the United States or its allies are involved.

U.S. troops should only be committed wholeheartedly and with the clear intention of winning. Otherwise, troops should not be committed.
U.S. combat troops should be committed only with clearly defined political and military objectives and with the capacity to accomplish those objectives.
The relationship between the objectives and the size and composition of the forces committed should be continually reassessed and adjusted if necessary.
U.S. troops should not be committed to battle without a "reasonable assurance" of the support of U.S. public opinion and Congress.
The commitment of U.S. troops should be considered only as a last resort.

Powell Doctrine (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powell_Doctrine)

The Powell Doctrine states that a list of questions all have to be answered affirmatively before military action is taken by the United States:

Is a vital national security interest threatened?
Do we have a clear attainable objective?
Have the risks and costs been fully and frankly analyzed?
Have all other non-violent policy means been fully exhausted?
Is there a plausible exit strategy to avoid endless entanglement?
Have the consequences of our action been fully considered?
Is the action supported by the American people?
Do we have genuine broad international support?

[ORAC]

Foot in mouth time.....

1. If Bashar al-Assad hands over chemical weapons we will not attack, says John Kerry (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10295638/Syria-If-Bashar-al-Assad-hands-over-chemical-weapons-we-will-not-attack-says-John-Kerry.html)

2. Russia Lavrov Backs Call for Syria to Hand Over Chemical Weapons (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324549004579064943395965808.html)

3. Kerry speaking rhetorically over Syria turning in weapons: State Department (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/09/us-syria-crisis-weapons-idUSBRE9880GE20130909)

[SASless]

Hey....Obama, Kerry, et al are doing a great job of selling this.....why just listen to Kerry in the Senate Hearings a few days ago.

If you have to endure the advert I apologize....but at least it does serve as an example of how to communicate that perhaps Kerry could learn from.

Hilarious: Just How Bad Were the Senate Hearings on Syria? | Independent Journal Review (http://www.ijreview.com/2013/09/77786-hilarious-just-bad-senate-hearings-syria/)

[SASless]

Obama Doctrine


What personal or political interest of mine is at play?
If I lose....who can I blame?
My intentions are all that matters...not the outcome.
Have I covered my Ass?
Who is my Fall Guy?
What time does the Bus get here.
Who cares about Public Support....so long as the Media supports me.
Enemies are those that do not fully agree with me.
Attack all enemies except those that can fight back.
Throw someone under the Bus...anyone...but deny wrongdoing.
When caught on Audio Tape or Video....LIE and DENY.

[Courtney Mil]

So you're a big Obama fan then, SASless? :p

Seriously, though, I think you can apply that same policy statement to a lot of politicians.

[SASless]

Yes....you have seen through my facade.....darn it....I thought it had been well hidden.:{

[Eclectic]

Some expert Ghouta analysis:

PmwjXp45syI

I think that Bush/Bliar have screwed up the public of the world's trust by going to war on a pile of lies.
In Iraq the weapons just didn't exist. In Syria we know for absolute certain that they do and that they have been used repeatedly.
The problem we now have is that if Assad is not punished in some way then it will be open season for despots and freedom fighters all over the world to use WMD at will.

Assad's propaganda in articles like this EXCLUSIVE: Syrians In Ghouta Claim Saudi-Supplied Rebels Behind Chemical Attack (http://www.mintpressnews.com/witnesses-of-gas-attack-say-saudis-supplied-rebels-with-chemical-weapons/168135/) (which is a pack of lies written by one of his supporters) has been incredibly successful. People seem far more willing to believe this rubbish than they are what their governments tell them. Thank you Blair/Brown.
Assad has concentrated on the propaganda message that the rebels are all foreigners and that they are all religious extremists. Both of these are lies yet they have been repeated many times by the mainstream press as well as endlessly on the social media.

[TomJoad]

Some expert Ghouta analysis:


I think that Bush/Bliar have screwed up the public of the world's trust by going to war on a pile of lies.


Without question that is exactly what is at play here. There is going to be some serious soul searching once this has settled. What does it say about us, and how we perceive our place in the world, not to mention our relationship with our elected representatives. Interesting times lies ahead.

[Lonewolf_50]

I think that with Lavrov on board, you could get a UNSCR to demand he turn over what chem weapons he's got. Will only take three or four years to get it sorted, but it's a move forward. Might even get China on board.

Is this a perfect solution? No. It's a political solution.

Politics is, some say, the art of the possible.

I'd like to see the Japanese, the Swedes, the Kiwis, and maybe the Indonesians and Kenyans involved in the UN group that collects and removes the chem weapons onto a US or Russian ship for disposal.

I'd like the US to provide armed Reapers as cover so that each time such a convoy of weapons heading to the port for a Russian or US ship is attacked by the Al Q rebels, they get the hot lead enema they so richly deserve.

I know, I've been smoking bad weed again, but a man can hallucinate, right?

[TomJoad]

Politics is, some say, the art of the possible.

I'd like to see the Japanese, the Swedes, the Kiwis, and maybe the Indonesians and Kenyans involved in the UN group that collects and removes the chem weapons onto a US or Russian ship for disposal.

I know, I've been smoking bad weed again, but a man can hallucinate, right?

Well why not as you say "the art of the possible" and everything you say there is entirely possible. It has also been said before by others why not a green line or no fly zone.

Did we not enforce a no fly zone when Saddam used chem weapons on the Marsh Arabs. If we found the political will then why not now. Get Russia involved and convince Assad it's his best option.

[Lonewolf_50]

Well why not as you say "the art of the possible" and everything you say there is entirely possible. It has also been said before by others why not a green line or no fly zone.
Because there are factors in this case not the same as Saddam's case, that is why you can't cut and paste.
Did we not enforce a no fly zone when Saddam used chem weapons on the Marsh Arabs. If we found the political will then why not now. Because the current president is no GHW Bush. That is why not.
Get Russia involved and convince Assad it's his best option. I do hope so, the trick is to make the right deal with the Russians.

[TEEEJ]

It won't work as was found out in Libya. Qaddafi retained a hidden cache of chemical weapons and the US will be wary of any such proposal. In reality the Syrians are never going to allow the in depth and intrusive inspection regime that the US would require before it signed off on any deal. The Syrians could simply retain an undeclared cache or covert production while handing over a token of their inventory.

Inspectors uncover Qaddafi?s hidden WMD stockpile | Homeland Security News Wire (http://www.homelandsecuritynewswire.com/dr20120130-inspectors-uncover-qaddafi-s-hidden-wmd-stockpile)

OPCW Inspectors Verify Newly Declared Chemical Weapons Materials in Libya (http://www.opcw.org/the-opcw-and-libya/opcw-inspectors-verify-newly-declared-chemical-weapons-materials-in-libya/)

Syria still won't allow the IAEA full and unrestricted access to the Dair Alzour site struck by Israel in 2007. You can imagine how they would react to any deal that would involve intrusive inspections in regards to chemical weapons?

http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2012/gov2012-42.pdf

[SASless]

I believe we see the start of a Russian initiative to work out a deal with the Syrians to prevent Obama from ordering an attack.

If the Syrians will play ball with Russia....then Putin shall be the Winner and Obama the distinct loser. Obama should never have dissed Putin personally as he did....as Putin has every motivation to cut Obama off at the knees anyway he can.

Putin shall be seen as a Peace Maker and Obama will be painted as being the War Monger.....and rightfully so as anything that stops an American Attack is the right thing to do.

Obama is way out of his depth...and has been since being elected the first time.

This time it is in the World's eye....and World Media that he is shown for how incompetent he is.

[NutLoose]

So basically they're now saying you been a naughty petulant child therefore we are going to take your toys off you and you had better behave from now on...
But please feel free to carry on shooting and blowing seven shades of sh*te out of each other..


Wouldn't fancy being the poor saps that have to fly into Syria to collect his toys, and then how are you going to verify you have got them all?.

It does seem to be a good get out clause, providing the USA plays ball.


...

[SASless]

Well now....will we see if this is about "Obama's Face" or Disarming Syria?

My bet Obama keeps pushing for War as he has no way to go that does not leave him looking like a complete Dork unless he can puff out that pigeon breast of his, stick his jaw in the air like Mussolini did, and be the MAN!

I wager missiles fly......not cargo aircraft hauling surplus ChemWeaps.

[Ronald Reagan]

Syrian rebels plan chem attack on Israel from govt controlled lands - RT sources - YouTube (http://youtu.be/WS8CthsUcxU)

Syria welcomes Russia's call to handover chemical weapons - YouTube (http://youtu.be/T4sTasx-BOA)

[dead_pan]

I wager missiles fly

No way. He'll claim prior art on Kerry's proposal to disarm Assad (even though he apparently never meant it to be taken seriously when he said it), and claim victory. By some miracle your Administration appear to have bumbled their way into a solution to this mess.

[dead_pan]

So basically they're now saying you been a naughty petulant child therefore we are going to take your toys off you and you had better behave from now on...
But please feel free to carry on shooting and blowing seven shades of sh*te out of each other..

Yep, carry on as before but play nice.

I wonder what other "technical assistance" the Russians and Iranians have offered to help him finally get the job done (Russia: boots on the ground?)

[Ronald Reagan]

Syria: Assad not Responsible for Ghouta Gas Attack, Says Freed Hostage Pierre Piccinin - IBTimes UK (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/504735/20130909/syria-chemical-attack-assad-rebels-blame-hostage.htm)

[NutLoose]

Well if he hands over his Chemical weapons surely that means they can match the ones used with the stockpiles, though that does not mean they were not captured.
But as they have details of the main Components the UK flogged him, I take it they can approximate the quantities that could have been manufactured and hence how much he should have?

[Broadsword***]

I believe we see the start of a Russian initiative to work out a deal with the Syrians to prevent Obama from ordering an attack.

If the Syrians will play ball with Russia....then Putin shall be the Winner and Obama the distinct loser. Obama should never have dissed Putin personally as he did....as Putin has every motivation to cut Obama off at the knees anyway he can.

Putin shall be seen as a Peace Maker and Obama will be painted as being the War Monger.....and rightfully so as anything that stops an American Attack is the right thing to do.

Obama is way out of his depth...and has been since being elected the first time.

Or perhaps, all along, Obama has been playing a very clever bluff to get Assad to give up his CW. Even if Assad were to hand over most of them and keep a secret stash, he would never be able to use them again, without bringing the Russians down on top of him.

As for Putin, he will never been seen as anything other than an opportunistic despot.

[Airborne Aircrew]

As for Putin, he will never been seen as anything other than an opportunistic despot.

But he is an opportunistic despot who has managed to increase Russia's influence n the Middle East to a level unseen since the 1970's... Right now, Putin's performance eval is a lot better than O'Bummer's.

[TomJoad]

The next day or two will be defining here. We shouldn't care unduly as to how Putin will be viewed after all of this, he is becoming yesterday's man. More important is how the USA will be viewed, at home and abroad. What is surprising in all of this, is that a potential solution, peaceful one at that, may have been delivered unwittingly by John Kerry's tongue in cheek proposal. Strange indeed but let's hope they run with it.

[Broadsword***]

But he is an opportunistic despot who has managed to increase Russia's influence n the Middle East to a level unseen since the 1970's... Right now, Putin's performance eval is a lot better than O'Bummer's.

Not exactly a difficult trick to pull off when you don't have a functioning political opposition to worry about, because you've rigged your elections, rigged the press and had your opponents banged up.

[NutLoose]

I must admit I still cannot fathom out how he managed to go from an elected Prime Minister to President, a post that hadn't existed when his final mandated second term was up, thus rendering the original post he was elected to subservient to his position.




..

[Airborne Aircrew]

Not exactly a difficult trick to pull off when you don't have a functioning political opposition to worry about, because you've rigged your elections, rigged the press and had your opponents banged up.

Yeah, I hear Putin has done the same... :}

[dead_pan]

managed to increase Russia's influence n the Middle East to a level unseen since the 1970's

Mercifully we're only talking about a handful of countries. The likes of Yemen, Libya and Iraq have fallen out of their sway for good. Still, greater Iran is a biggie.

[Ronald Reagan]

TomJoad, Putin yesterdays man? I would imagine a decade from now he will still be President of Russia and a very much more powerful Russian than it is today. By then Cameron, Hollander and Obama will be nothing but a distant memory.
Putin is a very clever and very gifted leader.

[NutLoose]

He must qualify for the ex services thread too, being an ex Lt Col in the KGB.

[dead_pan]

Yup, Putin will be as durable as syphilis, but much less fun.

[500N]

broadsword

"Or perhaps, all along, Obama has been playing a very clever bluff to get Assad to give up his CW."


I think you better call Danny boy to explain to you how a bit far fetched
your statement is.

You give far too much credit to Obama.

And as for Putin, he has played Obama like a well played fiddle and Obama
has been dancing to try to keep up, at the same time as making himself
and the US look foolish.

[TomJoad]

Putin is not a clever man, more a opportunist thug and bully. His days are drawing to a close; trouble is brewing at home.:=

[SASless]

AA steals my thunder yet again!:ok:

[TomJoad]

He must qualify for the ex services thread too, being an ex Lt Col in the KGB.

Does that mean he'd satisfy the membership criteria for a certain (private) London club.:E

Sorry, so sorry, moment of weakness:(

[Broadsword***]

Since when did thunder sound like a dull fart?

[Airborne Aircrew]

Broadsword:

Since when did thunder sound like a dull fart?

So you never wondered why people call you Lightening then? :E

[Ronald Reagan]

If one looks at his KGB and then FSB background he must be one of the most switched on leaders in the world today, probably the most switched on.
He is a genius.
When one compares him with western leaders, most of them have never done anything meaningful in the past. They all seem to display a huge lack of experience and knowledge.

[Broadsword***]

So you never wondered why people call you Lightening then?

As in 'enlightening'? Oh, you mean 'lightning'.

(Pedantic smiley goes here.)

[NutLoose]

It's Ok Ronald, you've confessed all, now ask the nice Mr Putin to remove the thumb screws.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Broadsword:

Touche... Bloody typos...

http://www.hqrafregiment.net/images/smilies/tongue2.gif

[racedo]

Obama could get out thought by a 5 year old kid at the moment.............incompetent, and inept.

Carter was the most inept President in last 60 years but probably the most honorable man to have sat in the White House for many years and post Watergate restored a little bit of respect to that office.

Obama has overtaken Carter for ineptness but I see nothing of honor nor expect to ever see any.

[dead_pan]

Gosh, peace seems to have broken out here too. What's going on?

[dead_pan]

He is a genius.

You don't think he's a little, erm, vain? And quite short, so I've heard. Do you think he's repressing something, maybe certain inclinations? Perhaps you could ask him if you ever meet him - I'm sure he'd laugh heartily and give you a manly slap on the back.

[TomJoad]

Gosh, peace seems to have broken out here too. What's going on?

UN inspectors have drawn a green line across my keyboard, taken away all my single malt;)

[Airborne Aircrew]

taken away all my single malt

Bastards!!!!!!!

[enginesuck]

A distinguished service career, whats not to like ? Id take a Putin over Cameron anyday. Why do we not have more ex military /
Service politician candidates here

[Airborne Aircrew]

Enginesuck:

Putin or O'Bummer... O'Bummer or Putin....

Hard to tell the difference really..

[SASless]

I just watched the video of John (Who served in Vietnam you may recall) Kerry broaching the idea that Syria might surrender its ChemWeps....which was plainly a chicken **** answer to a question he did not like.

Then a few hours later the Russians make it a serious initiative.

Then the Syrian Foreign Minister says his Country would welcome such a deal.

Finally, when Chris Wallace from FOX interviews Obama....The Welfare Man is all enthused about it.

Simple question.....why did the Moron not offer this BEFORE banging the War Drums?

Now....the Politicians, like my two Senators that were on record as being ready to vote for War.....are really going to have some serious Egg on their Face if in fact there is a peaceful solution to this before they can get their Vote registered so they can say their courageous Vote secured a Peaceful solution to this.

Obama has really trick fecked some Republicans on this.....all by misadventure rather than by planning and conspiracy however.

As there appears a peaceful solution may be in the offing....Obama will hold off on the Congressional Vote....the missiles will stay in their launchers....John Kerry will get to act like he is a Statesman and a Genius by tricking the Russians into going for a UN Solution....the Welfare Man sets himself up for another Nobel Gong....Assad stays in power....Al Qaeda continues to murder....and the World's Armament dealers keep making money. Everyone wins......oh....well except for the 1500 dead that everyone was so worried over....but what the hell dead is dead right?

[500N]

Because most won't put up with the Bullshyte.

[TomJoad]

Bastards!!!!!!!

:D:D:D:D they didn't spot my secret stash:ok:

[racedo]

SAS

You such a cynic.......:E

[SASless]

I got it wrong.....Congress is tickled pink....as they will not have to vote and thus escape retribution at the next election they stand for.

[NutLoose]

Yup they will be able to say we would have / would not have supported him, whichever way the mood in the Country is at the time.

[Party Animal]

Will Congress not vote anyway or will it just be delayed a few weeks/months waiting on confirmation that gas piles have been removed?

[Eclectic]

Assad's propaganda has been very effective in the West. Makes Goebbels look like an amateur. Presumably Russia and Iran have been helping.
That the Ghouta CW attack was a rebel false flag attempt was one of their ridiculous lies that the gullible in the West believed.

Hopefully this particular mistruth will be nailed today with this Human Rights Watch report: Syria: Government Likely Culprit in Chemical Attack | Human Rights Watch (http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/09/10/syria-government-likely-culprit-chemical-attack)

22 pages of forensic examination.

[dead_pan]

Assad stays in power....Al Qaeda continues to murder

SASless - I thought you weren't too bothered about that?

[Eclectic]

The Syria opposition is not Al Qaeda. This is Assad propaganda.
To start off all the opposition were army deserters and local militias.
The West ignored their plight, so gradually the salafists had more influence. Largely are a result of the West's inaction.
Syria has a secular tradition so there has been considerable backlash against the salafists. Many times this has resulted in fighting FSA Vs salafists and Kurds Vs salafists.
Al Nusra was the main islamic fighting force but even they had a schism with the real fundamentalists leaving to join ISIS.
Including part time fighters and local militias there are probably around 150,000 armed people fighting against Assad. Of these something like 6 to 7 thousand are salafists. A smaller number of these are jihadists. A smaller number of these are Al Qaeda.
Yes, there is no doubt that some have been radicalised by the conflict. But the vast bulk of Syrians are secular and want a secular society. They will not tolerate sharia or a caliphate.

This is the easiest way to visualise the opposition: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BTbdKHVCUAEOwG0.jpg:large

[Courtney Mil]

Great. Let's see what happens next.

1. Syria hands over ALL their CW to someone we trust. ""Yep, that's the lot, honest, sa'ib."

2. Someone then orders a CW attack against civilians, but the Syrian Government shout, "I wasn't us, it can't have been us, you took it all away. It must have been the terrorist rebels. Now you must attack them because using CW against civilians is evil - you said so."

3. The Swedes demand that O'Bamagh flies immediately to Oslo to hand his Nobel Peace Price over to that nice Mr Putin.

Simple question.....why did the Moron not offer this BEFORE banging the War Drums?

Yeah, that is a good question. But you have to admit, this new initiative came along just in time - if nothing else to save Mr President from either having to make an embarrassing climb-down or trying to press ahead with action that everyone else (well a lot, anyway) is coming out against.

Thank God for Putin, eh? Words I didn't expect I would be typing.

[Eclectic]

Kerry opened his mouth and put both feet in it.
Putin, the wily old dog, saw an opportunity and took it.
This is purely a delaying tactic.
There is no way that Assad will allow a strict and invasive enforcement regime. But he will pay lip service for the time it gives him. He will use this time to regroup and to re-equip. Russia has sent 7 landing ships to Syria, they are not carrying baked beans. The war will be prolonged.

Assad has possibly the biggest chemical warfare stocks in the world. Mustard, Sarin and VX. He has built a huge missile force to deliver this into Israel. Perhaps 2,000 ballistic missiles. He built this force up for deterrence, as a counter to Israeli nuclear weapons. And deterrence has worked. It is probably what has kept Turkey away from involvement in the conflict.

Obama has been shown up as being unfit for office. He is just a glib mouth, not a leader. He is now a dead duck president. The remainder of his presidency will see the ascendency of the powers for harm in the world. Russia, Iran, North Korea. USA has lost all credibility in the world. Undone by Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. Despite their enormous military power they have been comprehensively outmanoeuvred by Putin at every turn.

In this disaster UK politicians like Blair and Hague have been complicit.

[glojo]

Congratulations to the Russians for baling out America and no doubt these chemical weapons will be put beyond the reach of ALL Syrian forces.

To oversee this should we nominate General John de Chastelain to ensure this is done correctly? click (http://www.psg.com/~ted/vaninst/VbChastelain.html) I'm not convinced this was his finest hour especiually as the weapons being used by the New IRA can be traced back to killings committed by the Provisional IRA or should we call the the 'old' IRA!:sad::sad:

what a political cop-out but in a way should we all be thanking Putin for baling out this super power?

If we think Russia has only just started to arm Syrian forces then we are living in cloud cuckoo land. That nation needs a warm water port and it has one. Tartus (http://rt.com/politics/russia-plans-syrian-base-670/)

[ORAC]

France to Introduce Resolution Aimed at Dismantling Syria's Chemical Arsenal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323595004579066524164827140.html)

PARIS—France's Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Tuesday that Paris was preparing to introduce a resolution at the United Nations Security Council calling for an international inspection and the dismantling of Syria's chemical-weapon arsenal.

Mr. Fabius, speaking at a news conference, said the draft resolution would establish "consequences" for the regime if it fails to comply with the proposed program. He didn't name the consequences. He said the proposed resolution would also invoke Chapter 7, a clause that allows member states to use all possible means to enforce a resolution. "We don't want to accept any delay tactics," Mr. Fabius said. "All options remain on the table."...........

France's push to dismantle the chemical arsenal under Chapter 7 could face resistance. European diplomats had secretly proposed a similar resolution to Moscow weeks ago, according to a French official. However, Moscow rejected the proposal, because Chapter 7 makes the resolution binding. The French official said Paris considered its terms for the draft resolution "nonnegotiable."

France's proposed resolution comes after Russia said it is preparing a plan for Syria to hand over its stockpile of chemical weapons and put it under international control.

"Syrians must take immediate commitments," Mr. Fabius said.

Russia, one of Syria's closest allies, and one that wields veto power on the Security Council, has blocked previous resolutions aimed at punishing the Assad regime...............

[Eclectic]

Interesting map:

http://images1.ynet.co.il/PicServer3/2013/09/09/4851307/3.jpg

This is big and detailed so resizing it would reduce its value.
Also I am not hosting it.

[Eclectic]

The big fighting in Syria right now is in the north, yet our media don't realise. The YPG are capturing several villages every day from the jihadists. Not in a random manner. They are strategically going after major border crossings and encircling jihadist forces.

The Kurds in the north were out of the main battles for a long time. Their militias were lightly armed and maintained their enclaves. They have a democratic structure.

After the FSA gained control over most of Aleppo the al Nusra and ISIS forces headed north to ethnically cleanse the Kurds. They were well armed with technicals, tanks and artillery. So they had huge successes. Large numbers of Kurdish refugees poured over the border into Kurdish Iraq.
The Kurds responded by sending lots of seasoned fighters from Turkey and Iraq. These guys easily out fight the islamic nutters. And now they are in the middle of a major campaign. Not just to win back territory, but to smite those who tried to ethnically cleanse them.

YPG on Wikipedia: People's Protection Units - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Protection_Units)

[Ronald Reagan]

The Russian's have to take credit for this, they jumped on the words said by Kerry to come up with a proposal. If not for their strong support of Assad in the first place (China to) then the west would likely have been involved in Syria a long time ago. Its the fact Russia does support Assad so strongly that has prevented a war. If this proposal does work then Assad can go on to win the war using conventional weapons supplied by his allies.
Well done Russia.:ok:

[Courtney Mil]

Woah. BIG map!

[gr4techie]

whoooa my laptop screen has gone all crazy. Where am I?

[gr4techie]

Back on topic, I heard a great quote on radio 4....

"If we did get involved with airstrikes on Syria, what are we really going to achieve"?

They'll still be killing each other regardless.

And after all them years in Iraq and Afghanistan they are no more peaceful, they still have sectarian killings or lawless tribal fighting.

My personal view is chemical weapons are not a "weapon of mass destruction" the AK47 is the true weapon of mass destruction.... ever. You'll find a lot more people have been killed by conventional means in the past months, years even. But call me Dave did not give a toss about intervention back then.

[Eclectic]

The big mistake we made in Iraq and Afghanistan (other than going in) was not partitioning them.
Partitioning solved the Yugoslavia problem. Or going back the Austro Hungary problem.
Iraq should have been divided into three countries. Shia, Sunni and Kurd. As it is the Kurds have formed their own country anyhow. But the Sunnis and Shias will keep killing each other for all eternity. There is a proxy war between KSA (Sunni) and the mad mullahs (Shia) that is being fought out everywhere that there is Islam.
In Afghanistan we had this silly idea of forcing democracy on them. Something they don't need or want. This has cost us hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of lives. We should have split the place up as a federation under the various warlords and supported those who played ball and punished those who didn't. This would have been far faster, far cheaper and would have brought civilisation to the place far sooner.
The only workable solution to Syria is partition. They hate each other far too much to work together any time soon. On the ground they are already partitioned. Kurds in the north. Alawites in Damascus and Homs and along the coast. Sunnis along the Euphrates and in Allepo and the surrounding area.

A big problem is that when the colonialists drew their lines on the map they split up the Kurdish people. Destiny is that they will be reunited and now would be a good time. They are already self governing in Iraq and Syria. What is needed is for Turkey to give up their Kurdish territory to this new country, which is exactly what the Turks don't want. But the reality is that the Kurds have been fighting for a long time now and will continue to fight till they get their state. The Turks would do vastly better in every way if they accepted this.

[NutLoose]

ENDEX

Barack Obama: I'll put Syria military strikes 'on hold' if Assad surrenders chemical weapons - Middle East - World - The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/barack-obama-ill-put-syria-military-strikes-on-hold-if-assad-surrenders-chemical-weapons-8805772.html)

Looks an awfully relieved chap

[Eclectic]

Obama is not a lame duck president, he is a dead duck president.
In modern parlance he is Putin's bitch.
This despite the American military being very many more times powerful than the Russian military.

GW Bush was an utterly abysmal and inept president. Obama is much, much worse. A glib orator with absolutely zero substance. A natural non leader. The weakest person to be POTUS in my lifetime.

[t43562]

Is Obama weak for bombing people or for not bombing them?

As for Putin - seems like Mugabe to me - has lots of fanbois just because he's been there a while and has managed to shaft all his opponents and everyone else in his country. For some of us that's greatness and something to aspire to.

[Lonewolf_50]

No way. He'll claim prior art on Kerry's proposal to disarm Assad (even though he apparently never meant it to be taken seriously when he said it), and claim victory. By some miracle your Administration appear to have bumbled their way into a solution to this mess.
If better lucky than good can apply to my golf game, maybe it also applies to this sort of thing.

[West Coast]

The ironic thing being any credible agreement to safeguard/remove the CW will require some boots on the ground in the middle of a civil war. Likely not US troops, but someone under UN authority will be in harms way.