Here it comes: Syria [Archive] - Page 9

TEEEJ

10th Apr 2017, 18:44

Did the west not intervene and remove all the chemical weapons from Assad's forces.

The OPCW (Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons) had reservations in regards to what Syria declared. Keep in mind that Gaddafi retained a secret cache of chemical weapons that were discovered after he was toppled.

OPCW Pressing Syria on Declaration Gaps

April 2016

By Daniel Horner

Hamid Ali Rao, deputy director-general of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (left) and OPCW Director-General Ahmet Üzümcü (right) during the annual meeting of the states-parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention in The Hague on December 3, 2015. (Photo: OPCW)Hamid Ali Rao, deputy director-general of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (left) and OPCW Director-General Ahmet Üzümcü (right) during the annual meeting of the states-parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention in The Hague on December 3, 2015. (Photo: OPCW)The policymaking body of the international organization that oversaw the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons expressed concern last month about problems with Syria’s formal accounting of its chemical stockpile and urged resolution of the problems in the next few months.

In a March 23 decision document, the Executive Council of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) cited a report to the council by OPCW Director-General Ahmet Üzümcü. The report has not been publicly released, but the council document described it as saying that the OPCW Technical Secretariat “is unable at present to verify fully that the declaration and related submissions of the Syrian Arab Republic are accurate and complete.”

Countries are required to submit a declaration of their stockpiles when they join the Chemical Weapons Convention, which Syria did in 2013. Questions about the declaration emerged almost immediately and have persisted since then.

At a meeting in Washington last month, a U.S. official said the council action and the request for the Üzümcü report on which the decision was based were part of a U.S. initiative stemming from a feeling that the issue required higher-level political attention. Under the resolution, Üzümcü is to meet with Syrian officials and report back to the council before its next meeting, scheduled for July 12-15.

Üzümcü’s meetings are to proceed in parallel with those of an OPCW unit known as the Declaration Assessment Team, which has had primary responsibility for probing the Syrian accounting and had made 15 visits to the country as of late March.

In a March 15 statement to the council on behalf of the European Union, Pieter van Donkersgoed of the Netherlands said the list of unresolved questions “has been increasing during the last two years and is still growing.” Among the issues he cited as examples were “the fate of the 2000 aerial bombs [designed to carry chemical agents] that Syria claims to have converted” into conventional weapons and the discovery by the Declaration Assessment Team of “traces of chemicals directly linked” to the production of the nerve agents sarin, VX, and soman.

https://www.armscontrol.org/print/7379

racedo

10th Apr 2017, 18:51

Racedo

You have enough information to make that claim? Don't worry, it's a rhetorical question. You look foolish to draw conclusions on everything they do. Makes identifying the drama queens easy enough though.

14 years on from Iraq invasion yup reckon I do................

Finding Osama 10 years after 9/11 yup reckon that info is well and truly proven.

Course if you wish to disprove that and show how Intelligence agencies had that information all the time but just kept it from Governments then go ahead.

So should we trust the CIA in they stating that the Russians turned the US Presidential election to elect current incumbent or should we rely on other US Intelligence networks which have said that didn't happen.

West Coast

11th Apr 2017, 01:54

Racedo

Your comment, "record on anything " marks you as a lightweight. If you're willing to condemn them in totality, then that infers you have the data to do so, which armed with media reports means you dont.

There are posters here that earn my respect by offering salient, adult like positions. You're not one of them as you choose to offer sweeping positions when you're clueless to the entirety of the subject you mention.

How do you know the positions the CIA held internally about all the major positions of the past 15 years? I can imagine there was robust discussions and position/point papers in varying directions as to Iraq and Afghanistan.

jolihokistix

11th Apr 2017, 03:06

A few of years ago a huge underground bunker of Saddam-era chemical weapons was discovered in Iraq. It was so heavily sealed however that the temporary occupying fighters seemed at the time unlikely to have been able to open it. My memory is hazy regarding the where and when.

engineer(retard)

11th Apr 2017, 06:36

This the same intelligence services that took 10 years to find Osama and told everybody about WMD's in Iraq......................... their record on anything is so bad that it is laughable.

The UN was convinced that there were weapons, in fact they verified the existence of thousands of biological and chemical weapons in Iraq:

https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_10/iraqspecialoct02

It always surprises me that nobody wonders where the unaccounted ones went.

Roland Pulfrew

11th Apr 2017, 10:52

Googling "Saddam era chemical weapons bunker captured by ISIS" brings up numerous reports from 2014; this one the Torygraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10913275/Isis-storms-Saddam-era-chemical-weapons-complex-in-Iraq.html)

Lonewolf_50

11th Apr 2017, 11:24

Someone needs to discover oil in Syria. We'd sort it out quick enough then.
Suggest you do a bit of self education, sir.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/syria-oil-production-and-consumption-eia.png

There is oil in Syria, however, not quite in the over abundance one finds in Iraq or Saudi. The line on the map from Sikes Picot didn't quite settle over the sweet spots for that particular country.

DroneDog

11th Apr 2017, 11:25

Someone needs to discover the plans for a proposed gas pipeline through Syria that Assad had refused.

Lonewolf_50

11th Apr 2017, 11:27

Someone needs to discover the plans for a proposed gas pipeline through Syria that Assad had refused. Heh, I suspect that those plans are sitting in an air-conditioned office in Riyadh, Doha, or both. :ok:

jolihokistix

11th Apr 2017, 13:08

Roland Pulfrew above, many thanks.

Trim Stab

11th Apr 2017, 13:19

Racedo

You have enough information to make that claim? Don't worry, it's a rhetorical question. You look foolish to draw conclusions on everything they do. Makes identifying the drama queens easy enough though.

There is a valid reason to question most information from the intelligence services in this day and age.

During the Cold War, and to a lesser extent during other UK-oriented conflicts such as NI and Falklands, intelligence was sourced from informants with a genuine ideological abhorrence of the antagonist.

Modern day informants are almost universally venal - they just provide information that will maximise their personal revenue. Hence I too have a very disdainful regard for the intelligence provided by our intelligence services today.

A_Van

11th Apr 2017, 15:53

Lonewolf 50 is right, as usual: pipeline was among sources of trouble as many analysts say. Even RFK Jr is among them
Syria Is Another Pipeline War (http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/10/62769.html)

Was it a major reason, or just one among many, difficult to say. But coincidently, when Assad sent Qatar and Turkey to hell and started dancing with Iran, Qatar and Saudis started warming/boiling and supporting everybody who might be considered as an opposition to Assad Jr.

Hangarshuffle

11th Apr 2017, 22:43

UK Government cant seem to hold it together on the issue.
Boris Johnson insists Russia could still face sanctions as Government colleagues criticise 'total let down' at G7 summit (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/11/boris-johnson-insists-russia-could-still-face-sanctions-colleagues/)

Our Foreign sec. clearly the odd one out at G7 and looking increasingly isolated within the cabinet as well.
I actually don't think sanctions are the answer either. Distinct credibility gaps are apparent everywhere within our side. The credibility of US and UK Govts. their intelligence services...everything really. It all utterly stinks.

ORAC

27th Jun 2017, 05:32

US warns Syria over 'potential' plan for chemical attack - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40413563)

The US says it has identified "potential preparations" for another chemical attack in Syria, and issued a stark warning to the Syrian government. The White House said the activities were similar to those made before a suspected chemical attack in April........

The US statement warned President Bashar al-Assad of "a heavy price" if another strike occurred. It said "another chemical weapons attack by the Assad regime" was likely to result "in the mass murder of civilians".

The statement added: "As we have previously stated, the United States is in Syria to eliminate the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. If, however, Mr Assad conducts another mass murder attack using chemical weapons, he and his military will pay a heavy price.".......

Heathrow Harry

27th Jun 2017, 08:56

Van

I think you've forgotten there was pipeline through the area for many years - the old TAP line. And it was bedevilled by politics even then - every time Syria wanted some more cash a "farmer" would "accidently" drive a bulldozer through it.............................

Construction of the Trans-Arabian Pipeline began in 1947 and was mainly managed by the American company Bechtel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bechtel). Originally the Tapline was intended to terminate in Haifa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haifa) which was then in the British Mandate of Palestine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Mandate_of_Palestine), but due to the establishment of the state of Israel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel), an alternative route through Syria (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria) (Golan Heights (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golan_Heights)) and Lebanon was selected with an export terminal in Sidon. The Syrian government initially opposed the plan, but ratified Tapline construction in 1949 following a military coup (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_1949_Syrian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) overthrowing democratic rule there.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Arabian_Pipeline#cite_note-1) Oil transport through the pipeline started in 1950.

Since the 1967 Six-Day War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six-Day_War), the section of the pipeline which runs through the Golan Heights came under Israeli occupation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli-occupied_territories), though the Israelis permitted the pipeline's operation to continue. After years of constant arguing between Saudi Arabia and Syria and Lebanon over transit fees, the emergence of oil supertankers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supertanker), and pipeline breakdowns, the section of the line beyond Jordan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan) ceased operation in 1976. The remainder of the line between Saudi Arabia and Jordan continued to transport modest amounts of petroleum until 1990 when the Saudis cut off the pipeline in response to Jordan's support of Iraq (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq) during the first Gulf War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Gulf_War).

Today, the entire line is unfit for oil transport

Lonewolf_50

27th Jun 2017, 15:15

Harry
From what looks to be the source you used (Wikipedia article, which is very informative) I note the following:
(1) In early 2005, rehabilitation of the Tapline at an estimated cost of US$100 to US$300 million was one of the strategic options being considered by the Jordanian government to meet oil needs. {Possible problem being the increase in diameter needed to be viable?}
(2) The pipeline was built and operated by the Trans-Arabian Pipeline Company.--snip--The company continued operating with no oil being transported until the end of 2002, when Aramco fully closed the Tapline subsidiary.

With things getting squirrely again, does it argue for or against opening that transfer mode again? Granted, at the moment Syria is intensely unstable, but that route seems to run less in the ISIS sorts of areas and more in the "controllable" areas. (All labels conditional, at best).

flyhardmo

27th Jun 2017, 17:14

Syria chemical attack may be being prepared, US warns - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-40413563)

The Trump White House is at war with reality. Threats of harsh action directed against Syria if there is another chemical weapons attack, setting up a perfect scenario for the “rebels” to stage one. And what is the evidence that such a thing is being planned? Where was the evidence tha Assad planned and carried out the Chemical attack in which Trump was so devastated about 'beautify children' being gassed that he ordered Tomahawk strikes?

Lonewolf_50

27th Jun 2017, 17:24

Your emotions are noted, flyhardmo. Suggest that you remember that the year is 2017, and information is a tool of war, and even moreso a tool of conflict "other than war" which seems to be the popular pastime anymore.
What Mr Assad and his crew have to now consider is as follows:
If they haven't any such thing in the works, is this a good chance to send counterbattery fire of news/noise/propaganda in the other direction? Or just ignore?
If they have something in the works, is Trump "bluffing or not?" (The last strike leans toward not, but the ever-mercurial President Trump might be tossing this out for a different reason).

This isn't about what did or didn't previously happen (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39500947): that's water under the bridge. The story you linked to is on the topic of possible futures.

racedo

27th Jun 2017, 18:58

ISIS / Al Qaeda under pressure and Saudi' not happy that their mates are under presssure hence time to concoct something to enable bombing of Syrian Government to take place. SAA about to begin a big offensive in Hama province

Are Qatari's and Saudi's good guys this week or bad guys..................... just changes so often, what about Al Qaeda have they been fogiven for that little misunderstanding on 9/11.

DroneDog

28th Jun 2017, 10:03

Reasons for starting wars:

Let us see,

Vietnam - Golf of Tonkin - made up
Iraq - WMD - made up
Afghanistan - 9/11 - not Afghanistan, still seeking true culprits
Libya - made up
Syria - made up

Assad is winning, ISIS is being wiped out, it would be ludicrous to suggest Assad would carry out such an attack considering the repercussions.

The Syrian Free Army or ISIS if you like have everything to gain by faking an attack.

Let's see how our 'bought and paid for' media react if such an attack does take place.

jolihokistix

28th Jun 2017, 11:15

Drone Dog "The Syrian Free Army or ISIS if you like..."

Are you serious?

jolihokistix

28th Jun 2017, 13:20

Hot barrel!
Female Kurdish sniper cheats death at hands of IS - BBC News (http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middle-east-40430552/female-kurdish-sniper-cheats-death-at-hands-of-is)

Lonewolf_50

28th Jun 2017, 16:52

Assad is winning, ISIS is being wiped out, it would be ludicrous to suggest Assad would carry out such an attack considering the repercussions. Argument from incredulity noted. Not convincing. From where I sit, it makes no sense for him to engage in a chemical attack because he knows the whole world is watching and getting into his business. Has been since the uprising 2011-2012. In the long game, politically, since his intention is to remain in power and not go into exile (or whatever) then he's got to take the long position.
Balanced against that is the general imperative in a civil war of "hit the opponent hard enough so that they stop fighting." Look at how long this civil war has been going on, and the hope that any and all of his opponents have that he'll get removed if they just keep fighting. This hope that is boosted by foreign assistance (from numerous actors) to the various factions who are his opponents. (The longer this thing goes on the more I am reminded of the Spanish Civil War, but it's got its own sort of logic ... ) Assad and his inner circle do not want a forever war. It's incredibly destructive to the unity and prosperity of their country.

Would he and his team reach for something beyond the pale with the aim of "ending this?" Maybe. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, nor beyond the range of the plausible that the chemical weapons tool is perceived as useful toward that end.

Preposterous? Not if you analyze it unemotionally.
A good idea? If one considers the long range political fall out ... I'd say it's would be a bad move since his intent is to stay in office/stay in power in Syria. But I am not sitting in his chair trying to figure out how to do two things at once:
1. end this civil war
2. remain in office
I won't pretend to know what steps he will or won't take to achieve that end.

Has he actually run out of other options? I don't know, and opinions on that vary.

The Nip

28th Jun 2017, 17:15

Argument from incredulity noted. Not convincing. From where I sit, it makes no sense for him to engage in a chemical attack because he knows the whole world is watching and getting into his business. Has been since the uprising 2011-2012. In the long game, politically, since his intention is to remain in power and not go into exile (or whatever) then he's got to take the long position.
Balanced against that is the general imperative in a civil war of "hit the opponent hard enough so that they stop fighting." Look at how long this civil war has been going on, and the hope that any and all of his opponents have that he'll get removed if they just keep fighting. This hope that is boosted by foreign assistance (from numerous actors) to the various factions who are his opponents. (The longer this thing goes on the more I am reminded of the Spanish Civil War, but it's got its own sort of logic ... ) Assad and his inner circle do not want a forever war. It's incredibly destructive to the unity and prosperity of their country.

Would he and his team reach for something beyond the pale with the aim of "ending this?" Maybe. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, nor beyond the range of the plausible that the chemical weapons tool is perceived as useful toward that end.

Preposterous? Not if you analyze it unemotionally.
A good idea? If one considers the long range political fall out ... I'd say it's would be a bad move since his intent is to stay in office/stay in power in Syria. But I am not sitting in his chair trying to figure out how to do two things at once:
1. end this civil war
2. remain in office
I won't pretend to know what steps he will or won't take to achieve that end.

Has he actually run out of other options? I don't know, and opinions on that vary.

I can see your point about Assad. My question has always been, why does it matter how you kill people? They end up dead, as we all do. It seems to me more about 'niceties'.
I do wonder whether people will accept 100000 people being killed by bullets and then complain about 100 by chemical weapons?
The quicker this war finishes the less will die anyway.

Lonewolf_50

28th Jun 2017, 17:29

I can see your point about Assad. My question has always been, why does it matter how you kill people? I'll forward your question to the folks who arranged the Peace of Westphalia, to be forwarded onward to the folks in Geneva and in the UN building in New York. The how seems to matter. :hmm: (I admit, it sure gets to be a bit of a head scratcher at times ...) The quicker this war finishes the less will die anyway. Yeah. The number of outsiders who have chosen to support faction A, B, C, D, and F, as well as Assad's faction, are feeding the war's continuation. Sadly for the people in Syria, it's apparently about more than who is in charge in their country. :suspect: :sad:

DANbudgieman

29th Jun 2017, 10:39

Hot barrel!
Female Kurdish sniper cheats death at hands of IS - BBC News (http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middle-east-40430552/female-kurdish-sniper-cheats-death-at-hands-of-is)

Framing yourself in a window while working in in a sniper / counter sniper is not a recipy for a long life....

Lonewolf_50

11th Jul 2017, 19:25

ISIS has recently been mostly put out of Mosul, which means their power base is moving back towards Syria. And now some news that may or may not be verifiable. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights told Reuters on Tuesday that it had "confirmed information" that Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has been killed. The report came just days after the Iraqi army recaptured the last sectors of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, which Baghdadi's forces overran almost exactly three years ago. How many times has Al Baghdadi been reported dead? Let's add one more (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/syrian-observatory-says-it-has-confirmed-information-that-islamic-state-chief-is-dead/ar-BBEeCKI?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=ientp).
If he is now dead, what is the likelihood that it was an air strike, or a drone strike, that did for him?
I'd say low. I suspect if he'd been targeted/taken out by an air attack, the air force would not be able to shut up about it.

A_Van

12th Jul 2017, 09:55

.... I suspect if he'd been targeted/taken out by an air attack, the air force would not be able to shut up about it.

Sometime in late June there were many publications in the Russian media with references to the Russian AF (or MoD) officials that there was a strike specially undertaken on the location where this rat was hiding. It was said that though the strike was massive and precise, it was, however, not possible to confirm for sure that he was eliminated. It was suggested to wait for intelligence data or indirect confirmation from sources linked to terrorists. Now it seems that such indirect confirmations started spreading.
I agree that anyway that it is indeed very difficult to be 100% sure in such cases.

jolihokistix

12th Jul 2017, 10:30

You could scrape some DNA off the walls, I suppose but in the Russian aerial photos that I saw the buildings were gone, leaving two flat squares.
"Square bombs?" I remember thinking.

skydiver69

12th Jul 2017, 11:22

Its going to be interesting to see what happens if and when the American backed Syrian Democratic Forces win in Raqqa. The city will swap from one anti Assad force to another so will that lead to Assad besieging the city or will it become a political bargaining chip.

jolihokistix

12th Jul 2017, 11:39

Lonewolf_50

12th Jul 2017, 12:31

Someone's out there fighting (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-40572844), but on his own dime?

A 22-year-old British man has been killed fighting against so-called Islamic State in northern Syria, Kurdish fighters have said. Luke Rutter, of Birkenhead, Merseyside, was killed on 6 July in a neighbourhood south of Raqqa, they said.

melmothtw

12th Jul 2017, 12:54

Vietnam - Golf of Tonkin - made up
Iraq - WMD - made up
Afghanistan - 9/11 - not Afghanistan, still seeking true culprits
Libya - made up
Syria - made up

Revisionist clap-trap, and why name-check only these wars?

Iraq did have WMD, as Saddam Hussein had already used them against his own people. This is well documented. He chose to hamper and obstruct the work of the UN inspectors sent in to ascertain the status of his programme just ahead of the 2003 war, so giving credence to the belief that he still had them.

Afghanistan - the 9/11 attacks were planned and orchestrated from that country, not Saudi Arabia. The Taliban government were given the opportunity to give Bin Laden up, but opted not too leaving the US and its allies with no alternative than to go in and get him.

Libya - what was "made up" about Libya? Colonel Gadaffi publicly stated that he was going to 'exterminate the rats' in Benghazi, and the West intervened to prevent a massacre.

Syria - what is "made up" about Syria. There is a war going on that the West did not start. The West has become involved to eliminate Islamic State, which has perpetrated attacks against us.

skydiver69

12th Jul 2017, 16:07

17 minutes if you have them, skydiver69.

Well considered and thought out. Includes a discussion of a possible temporary working solution to Raqqa.

The women leading the fight against so-called IS in Syria - BBC News (http://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-40561207/the-women-leading-the-fight-against-so-called-is-in-syria)

That's an interesting news story so thanks for highlighting it. If anything like the arrangements suggested by the story come to fruition then a new can of worms will be opened or agitated. I can't see the Syrians, Iranians or Turks accepting a well armed and battle hardened pseudo Kurd state being set up in the area.

Lonewolf_50

12th Jul 2017, 19:27

I can't see the Syrians, Iranians or Turks accepting a well armed and battle hardened pseudo Kurd state being set up in the area. I am all for it. Galbraith wrote an interesting critique of OIF in about 2006, called The End of Iraq (http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/40720.The_End_of_Iraq). One of the points he belabored was that a possible silver lining was Kurds getting their own home as a result.

Granted, he was a little biased having worked with the Kurds quite a bit when he was in government. Let's just say that I am not the only person who referred to OIF as OKF: Operation Kurdish Freedom.

I still want to see that come true, even moreso now that Erdogan is playing the neo-caliph in Istanbul.

ORAC

17th Aug 2017, 07:01

Report: Satellite images reveal Iran building missile factory in Syria - Syria - Haaretz.com (http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/1.807080)

Lonewolf_50

18th Aug 2017, 01:14

Report: Satellite images reveal Iran building missile factory in Syria - Syria - Haaretz.com (http://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/syria/1.807080) Hey, why not? Why be boring?

ORAC

18th Aug 2017, 06:34

Israel has repeatedly attacked and destroyed targets in Syria they believe to be a direct threat - whether the reactor many years ago or convoys of rockets for movement to Lebanon and Hezbollah.

This site is, perhaps deliberately, close to the Russian airbase and its SAW defences. It will be interesting to see if they do attack it - and if the Russians let them.

Heathrow Harry

18th Aug 2017, 07:15

lot of if's and buts in that article TBH -

explosives - probably,

missiles? No evidence....................

And Netanyahu needs a distraction form teh multitiude of legal actions he's embroiled in

Lonewolf_50

6th Sep 2017, 13:29

Not sure what to make of this report, given its taint of UN blathering, but the report calls out Syria having used chemical weapons a few dozen times. (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/syrian-government-forces-used-chemical-weapons-more-than-two-dozen-times-un/ar-AArnSfV?li=AA4Zpp&ocid=ientp)

Syrian forces have used chemical weapons more than two dozen times during the country's civil war, including in April's deadly attack on Khan Sheikhoun, U.N. war crimes investigators said on Wednesday.

A government warplane dropped sarin on the town in Idlib province, killing more than 80 civilians, the U.N. Commission of Inquiry on Syria said, in the most conclusive findings to date from investigations into chemical weapons attacks during the conflict. The Commission also said U.S. air strikes on a mosque in the village of Al-Jina in rural Aleppo in March that killed 38 people, including children, failed to take precautions in violation of international law. I guess they took their cue from Trump to make sure that they could argue that there were violations by both sides. (Then again, there are a whole lotta sides in this mess, in Syria).

ORAC

16th Jan 2018, 07:01

Erdogan launches attack on Kurds’ stronghold in Syria (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/erdogan-launches-attack-on-kurds-stronghold-in-syria-jc2c8b0gf)

Turkey has launched an attack on a US-backed Kurdish militia operating in northwestern Syria after President Erdogan vowed to “tear down” the group’s border strongholds. Convoys of Turkish tanks are lining up outside Afrin, a small island of territory in Idlib province controlled by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). Ahead of an all-out assault, the Turkish army is pounding the area with artillery from its positions inside Idlib. “Our preparations have been completed. The operation could start at any time, and then will come the turn of other regions,” said Mr Erdogan.

The implicit threat against not just Afrin but the swathe of northern Syria controlled by the Kurds — with US military support — could bring two Nato allies into armed confrontation. The US announced at the weekend that it is helping the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition dominated by the YPG, to set up a 30,000-strong border force to protect the area it has captured along its frontlines with Turkey, Iraq, and Syrian regime forces. The YPG, for its part, promised Turkey a fight. “The Kurdish people will rise up as a whole. It will be total warfare,” said Saleh Muslim, former head of the group’s political wing.

An assault on Afrin would be the biggest Turkish operation inside Syria since the summer of 2016, when special forces soldiers crossed the border to confront Isis. That brought the Turkish military and its rebel allies up against US-backed Kurdish forces in the same area, taking two Nato member states to the brink of battle for the first time since the 1974 Cyprus conflict......

Kurdish officials have told The Times that they will not relinquish any of the territory they have won. Mr Erdogan, however, has grown increasingly pugnacious as it has become clear that the US will not be scaling down its support for the SDF. “Here is what we say to all our allies and friends: lower your flags on the terrorist organisation yourselves so that we won’t have to hand those flags over to you ourselves,” he said yesterday. “Rip your insignia off the terrorists’ uniforms so that we won’t have to bury them alongside terrorists.”

Until recently, the various state players involved in Syria’s conflict had taken steps towards peace. Turkey and Russia had agreed to guarantee ceasefires in four de-escalation areas, including Idlib. The details came through the Astana process, brokered by Turkey, Russia and Iran, which has overtaken the UN-backed Geneva negotiations as the main forum for dialogue between President Assad and the opposition. Turkey, which has supported the opposition and some armed rebel groups since the start of the conflict, has established military lookout points inside the province as part of the agreement.

However, that détente is now unravelling. The Syrian army, backed by Russia and Iran, is advancing into the rebel-held areas of Idlib province from the south, sending hundreds of thousands of civilians fleeing from their homes towards the Turkish border. That has breached the de-escalation agreement and provoked anger from Ankara. Binali Yildirim, the Turkish prime minister, warned on Friday that the assault could have “dire consequences” for the Astana process.

Russia, although opposed to the setting up of an SDF border force, has invited Kurdish representatives to peace talks in Sochi next month, a move that Turkey opposes.

“Erdogan might have thought the window of opportunity for an attack on Afrin might be closing if the Astana process fails. This is one of the main reasons he chose this moment to signal the operation,” said Guney Yildiz, from the European Council on Foreign Relations. “However, there isn’t enough international support for a Turkish operation against Afrin. The operation is also militarily extremely risky.”

Lonewolf_50

16th Jan 2018, 13:54

OH man, that's a hornet's nest of trouble just waiting to burst out. Keep your eyes peeled for air to air de-confliction issues to crop up very quickly. Not a good development.

While I completely understand the Turk's problem with the Kurdish issue, and were I in Erdogan's shoes I might feel moved to act similarly, my sympathies are with the Kurds ... but why, I ask, does the UN not provide the Kurds with the kind of support that the Bosniaks, Palestinians, and a whole host of other national identity groups? What's their core unattractiveness as a people? Not miserable enough?

pr00ne

16th Jan 2018, 14:18

The UN provides support to the Palestinians?

Easy Street

16th Jan 2018, 14:40

The UN provides support to the Palestinians?

I don’t know about other sorts, but moral support: absolutely. The General Assembly’s voting record is evidence enough of that.

A_Van

16th Jan 2018, 16:13

Some food for thought: geography and history about Kurds in this region:

http://i.imgur.com/phjaGdb.jpg?2

The issue is indeed difficult. If they were given a "strong autonomy" in one country, the neighboring ones would blow up demanding the same, and since the spots of their living are adjucent, it would quickly result in unification and demand for a new country.

jolihokistix

17th Jan 2018, 01:07

What's yellow and comes pouring down out of the hills?

Highlight invisible answer below.

Lemon Kurd(s)

artee

17th Jan 2018, 03:17

Very clever!

ORAC

20th Jan 2018, 08:07

Turkish Attack begins - with Russian cooperation.

https://www.dailysabah.com/war-on-terror/2018/01/20/first-stage-of-afrin-operation-against-pkk-linked-ypg-terrorists-begins-1516395787

jolihokistix

20th Jan 2018, 08:14

What will happen to the natural Syrian Kurd inhabitants of Afrin?

A_Van

20th Jan 2018, 08:30

Turkish Attack begins - with Russian cooperation.
....

As usual, you, ORAC, are shifting the context. The Russians simply withdrew some personnel (not so many were there) from that area. That's a turkish business, why to be in the middle?

Will be interesting to see if any support for those fighters for freedom comes from the US, Turkish big brother in NATO.

jolihokistix

20th Jan 2018, 10:30

Actually, no attack other than shelling has begun. The Turkish article above makes it clear that apart from the sporadic shelling this is a psychological 'de facto' phase, and Turkish troops are not involved anyway. The Turks are said to have transported thousands of FSA fighters to the border east of Afrin, but only 20 buses were observed. How is that possible?

Lyneham Lad

20th Jan 2018, 17:12

etudiant

21st Jan 2018, 02:36

No surprise, Kurdish independence is something both Turkey and Iran vehemently oppose.
So if the US actually supports the Kurds, there is likely to be a rearrangement of alliances in the Middle East.
However, precedents suggest the Kurds will again be sold out, as the Turkish invasion is also convenient for helping to remove Assad, something Secretary Tillerson has indicated is a US goal.

jolihokistix

21st Jan 2018, 09:55

The Turkish-leaning FSA fighters looked pretty reluctant, even sheepish, in those first shots.
Well, Lyneham Lad, I guess I must add bombing to artillery. No Turkish feet on the ground, though, not until the first pilots are shot down and captured anyway. Let us hope that Turkish/Erdogan rhetoric and pride has not generated an unstoppable impulse. I guess they would like to ask the Kurds to politely pull back to the eastern banks of the Euphrates, but would the Kurdish fighters just leave traditional Kurdish towns and villages behind unprotected in this brave new Syria?

jolihokistix

21st Jan 2018, 11:10

Well, the situation changes hour by hour. Now it seems that the Turks will be sending in their own troops and would like a 30 km wide buffer along their border to keep the Kurds back. The Syrian government however who have traditionally been pretty tolerant of them, may see the Kurds as a safety barrier against Turkey, according to this article:
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2018/01/21/Syrian-regime-opens-roads-for-Kurdish-forces-in-Afrin.html

jolihokistix

22nd Jan 2018, 01:57

This from Al Jazeera makes Turkey's aims a little clearer:

Major Yasser Abdul Rahim, who is also the commander of Failaq al-Sham, a main FSA rebel group in the operations room of the campaign, said the rebels did not seek to enter Afrin but encircle it and expel the YPG. "We have no interest in entering the city only the military targets inside the city and the villages around it. We aim to encircle the city and ensure the militias are evicted. We won't fight in the city as we have no problem with civilians," he said. A main goal of the military operation was to recapture Tel Rifaat, a town southeast of Afrin, and a string of Arab villages the YPG captured from rebels in February 2016, driving out tens of thousands of inhabitants, Abdul Rahim said.
Tension rises as Turkey sends troops to YPG stronghold | News | Al Jazeera (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/tension-rises-turkey-sends-troops-ypg-stronghold-180121200920904.html)

airsound

23rd Jan 2018, 15:55

AvWeek has a good piece by Tony Osborne with AVM Johnny Stringer,
"Royal Air Force Facing Long-Term Fight Against Islamic State Group"

RAF Facing Long-Term Fight Against Islamic State Group | Defense content from Aviation Week (http://aviationweek.com/defense/royal-air-force-facing-long-term-fight-against-islamic-state-group?NL=AW-05&Issue=AW-05_20180123_AW-05_708&sfvc4enews=42&cl=article_5_2&utm_rid=CPEN1000001187552&utm_campaign=13319&utm_medium=email&elq2=cc9d7198ed1a4aaa8b36bb59b6eeebe8)

airsound

ORAC

31st Jan 2018, 06:20

Snuck out in today’s news.

Sarin gas that killed thousands in Damascus is from Assad’s stockpiles (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/sarin-gas-that-killed-thousands-in-damascus-is-from-assad-s-stockpiles-blf8vkwxr)

Chemical weapons inspectors have for the first time linked the sarin gas used in an attack in Damascus in 2013 to President Assad’s stockpiles. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) matched “markers” on samples taken from the site of the attack in rebel-held eastern Ghouta with sarin stocks handed over to the UN by Assad’s government in 2014.

The finding supports western and Syrian opposition claims that regime forces carried out the attack in the early hours of August 21, 2013, killing more than a thousand people. Assad has always denied responsibility, claiming that rebels carried out the attack themselves in order to push the West towards military intervention. The OPCW also found links between Assad’s sarin stocks and the chemicals dropped on the town of Khan al-Assal in Aleppo province in March 2013, in what was believed to be the first chemical attack of the war. It had already reported the same link with the attack in the Idlib town of Khan Sheikhoun last April. “It was serious matching and serious laboratory work,” a source at the OPCW told Reuters.

Other experts have confirmed that the matching components in the various samples constituted solid proof that the chemicals used on civilians in the three attacks came from Syrian government stockpiles. “A match of samples from the 2013 Ghouta attacks to tests of chemicals in the Syrian stockpile is the equivalent of DNA evidence: definitive proof,” said Amy Smithson, a US non-proliferation expert.

The findings are, however, unlikely to result in any concrete action being taken against Assad. The joint UN and OPCW inquiry was halted in November after Russia blocked a motion to renew its mandate........

A_Van

31st Jan 2018, 09:06

Nonsense about analogy with DNA. "Jihadmobils" used by ISIS are based on Toyota SUV and belonged to somebody before they were taken by terrorists. So, blame the previous hosts they were stolen from, or Toyota?
In the chaos that was in Syria in 2013 (and still is), various groups or rebels and terrorists could capture the governmentals stocks and use it later.

When the US destroyed one of the Assad's AF base about a year ago, the explanation was that chem. weapons were there. But when the US were invited to visit it after and collect whatever samples they would find, they refused.

unmanned_droid

31st Jan 2018, 10:30

sandiego89

1st Feb 2018, 17:20

......
When the US destroyed one of the Assad's AF base about a year ago, the explanation was that chem. weapons were there. But when the US were invited to visit it after and collect whatever samples they would find, they refused.

I imagine such an "inspection" would have been effective as the other ones that were arranged in Iran, Syria, Iraq...

"Yes, we will be very happy open that building for you...how about two weeks from today? After lunch OK?" Surprise, surprise- nothing in the warehouse.....

An older, but perhaps relevant account:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-chemicalweapons/special-report-how-syria-continued-to-gas-its-people-as-the-world-looked-on-idUSKCN1AX107

ORAC

10th Feb 2018, 05:42

Crew (2) reported to have successfully ejected and be recovering in hospital.

Israeli fighter jet shot down by Syrian fire, says military (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/10/israeli-fighter-jet-shot-down-by-syrian-fire-says-military)

Syrian anti-aircraft fire has shot down an Israeli fighter and Israel struck an Iranian target that had launched an unmanned aircraft into its airspace from Syria, the Israeli military said.

“IDF (Israel Defence Forces) has targeted the Iranian control systems in Syria that sent the [unmanned aircraft] into Israeli airspace. Massive Syrian anti-air fire, one F16 crashed in Israel, pilots safe,” Israeli military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus said on Twitter on Saturday.

The tweet added that Iran was responsible for “this severe violation of Israeli sovereignty. Event ongoing, more to follow”. According to a separate military statement, Israeli forces had identified an “Iranian UAV” launched from Syria and intercepted it in Israeli airspace with a combat helicopter.

Israeli media said the jet crashed in northern Israel.

Syrian state media said air defences opened fire in response to an Israeli act of “aggression” against a military base on Saturday and hit “more than one plane”, citing a military source. “The Israeli enemy entity at dawn today conducted a new aggression against one of the military bases in the central region. Our air defences confronted it and hit more than one plane,” the unidentified military source said.

This is a developing story, please check back for updates......

ORAC

10th Feb 2018, 05:51

Israel Downs Iranian Drone, Strikes Syria; Israeli F-16 Shot Down, Pilots Safe (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/red-alert-sirens-sound-heavy-aerial-activity-in-northern-israel-1.5806508)

The Israeli army said Saturday morning that it intercepted an Iranian drone launched from Syria into Israeli territory. In response to the provocation, the IDF attacked Iranian targets in Syria. According to the Israeli army, Syrian anti-aircraft missiles targeted an Israeli F-16, prompting the pilots to eject. The plane went down in northern Israel. The two pilots were taken to the hospital in stable condition.

IDF Spokesperson Brigadier General Ronen Manelis said "We identified an Iranian drone UAV which took off from Syrian territory. The drone was identified by IAF systems and was downed by an IAF helicopter. The Iranian drone fell in our territory and is in our possession. As part of the country's defenses, sirens were activated but there was no danger for the residents of Beit She'an. It was decided to attack the trailer from which the Iranians launched the UAV. This was a surgical action deep in Syria, target destroyed."

"This is a serious Iranian attack on Israeli territory. Iran is dragging the region into a situation in which it doesn't know how it will end. We are prepared for a variety of incidents...whoever is responsible for this incident is the one who will pay the price."

Syrian television claimed Saturday morning more than one Israeli aircraft was hit by Syria's defense systems.

Due to Syrian anti-aircraft fire, says the army, rocket sirens sounded in multiple areas of northern Israel, first in the northern Israeli town of Beit She’an and later in the surrounding areas and Golan Heights. Residents reported hearing many explosions in the last half hour and heavy aerial activity in the area near Israel's borders with Jordan and Syria.

The Syrian army and rebels in the Syrian Golan Heights are currently exchanging heavy fire.

ORAC

10th Feb 2018, 07:20

JERUSALEM

The Latest on Israel shooting down Iranian drone over Syria (all times local):

10 a.m.

A Syria war monitor says Israel has struck targets in central Syria and the southwestern suburbs of the capital Damascus in two separate and successive waves of airstrikes.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says the first round targeted in the central desert area where Syrian troops and their Iranian-backed allies including Hezbollah are known to maintain bases. It cited unconfirmed reports of casualties among Syrian government forces and allied militiamen. The Britain-based Observatory, which monitors the Syria war through a network of activists on the ground, says the second round targeted outposts in the southwestern suburbs of Damascus....

CloudHound

10th Feb 2018, 07:50

2 up in an F-16? TF variant or something else?

Gault

10th Feb 2018, 07:53

JERUSALEM

A Syria war monitor says Israel has struck targets in central Syria and the southwestern suburbs of the capital Damascus in two separate and successive waves of airstrikes.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says the first round targeted in the central desert area where Syrian troops and their Iranian-backed allies including Hezbollah are known to maintain bases. It cited unconfirmed reports of casualties among Syrian government forces and allied militiamen. The Britain-based Observatory, which monitors the Syria war through a network of activists on the ground, says the second round targeted outposts in the southwestern suburbs of Damascus....

So as usual, Israel is telling fibs

ORAC

10th Feb 2018, 08:06

F-16I Sufa Multirole Fighter - Airforce Technology (http://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/f-16i/)

https://cdn.airplane-pictures.net/images/uploaded-images/2013/11/30/340307.jpg

Heathrow Harry

10th Feb 2018, 09:01

Syria war: Israeli fighter jet crashes under Syria fire, military says - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43014081)

pictures in link

An Israeli F-16 fighter jet has crashed amid Syrian anti-aircraft fire after an offensive against Iranian targets in Syria, the Israeli military says.
The two pilots parachuted to safety before the crash in northern Israel. It is believed to be the first time Israel has lost a jet in the Syrian conflict.
Israel was carrying out strikes after the launch of an Iranian drone into Israel. The drone was intercepted.

Syria accused Israel of "aggression", as Israel then launched more strikes.

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) tweeted: "Moments ago, IAF aircraft, targeted the Syrian Aerial Defense System & Iranian targets in Syria. 12 targets, including 3 aerial defense batteries & 4 Iranian military targets, were attacked. Anti-aircraft missiles were fired towards Israel, triggering alarms in northern Israel."
Israeli strikes in Syria are not unusual, the BBC's Middle East correspondent Tom Bateman says, but the loss of an Israeli fighter jet marks a serious escalation.

In a statement, the Israeli military said "a combat helicopter successfully intercepted an Iranian UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] that was launched from Syria and infiltrated Israel". It said the drone was identified quickly and was "under surveillance until the interception". The drone went down on Israeli territory and was "in our possession", IDF spokesperson Brig Gen Ronen Manelis said.

The military said that in response the IDF "targeted Iranian targets in Syria". It said the mission deep inside Syrian territory was successfully completed.
After coming under Syrian anti-aircraft fire, the F-16's two crew ejected and were later taken to hospital. One of them was "severely injured as a result of an emergency evacuation", the IDF said. It was not clear whether the F-16 jet was hit by anti-aircraft fire or went down for other reasons.

It is the first time Israel has lost an aircraft in combat since 2006 (http://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/Israeli-Air-Force-strikes-Iranian-targets-in-Syria-542191)when an Israeli helicopter was shot down over Lebanon by a Hezbollah rocket, the Jerusalem Post reports. All five crew on board - including a female flight mechanic - were killed in that incident.

Residents reported hearing a number of explosions and heavy aerial activity in the area near Israel's borders with Jordan and Syria. Syrian state media quoted a military source as saying that the country's air defences opened fire in response to an Israeli act of "aggression" against a military base on Saturday, hitting "more than one plane".

Later on Saturday, the army said a new wave of attacks was launched against 12 Syrian and Iranian targets in Syria. Eight of the Syrian targets belonged to the fourth Syrian division near Damascus, IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus said. All the Israeli aircraft from this sortie returned safely. "Syrians are playing with fire when they allow Iranians to attack Israel," the spokesman warned. He added that Israel was willing to exact a heavy price in response but "we are not looking to escalate the situation".

Analysis by BBC's diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus
For years Israel has been striking at weapons stores and other facilities in Syria with a single goal - to disrupt and as far as possible to prevent advanced Iranian missiles being delivered to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Syria has often been the conduit for these shipments. But the changing balance of power there, with the Assad regime's survival bolstered by Iranian help, has introduced a powerful new element - a direct Iranian role in the crisis.

A more confident Iran is alleged by Israel to be setting up bases in Syria (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-41945189)(whether for its own or its proxy Shia militia forces is unclear). But it is also alleged to be developing missile factories, both there and in Lebanon, to make the supply lines to Hezbollah less vulnerable. Israel's campaign to disrupt missile supplies is becoming ever more complex. And Iran risks becoming a direct actor in this conflict, ever closer to Israel's own borders.

ORAC

10th Feb 2018, 17:05

Interesting to read that the Syrians/Iranians fired over 25 SAM (http://www.jerusalemonline.com/news/middle-east/israel-and-the-middle-east/syria-fires-at-israeli-fighter-jets-after-israel-downs-iranian-drone-34500) to take down the Israeli F-16 - and the Israelis have now destroyed the vast majority of all the Syrian SAM sites in retaliation.....

Heathrow Harry

10th Feb 2018, 20:43

they claim...

but even so its like hitting moles with a hammer - they'll pop up again quite quickly....

Wokkafans

10th Feb 2018, 21:48

So as usual, Israel is telling fibs

You do realise that the SOHR is one guy living in a flat above his clothes shop in Coventry. :=:rolleyes:

glad rag

11th Feb 2018, 00:15

If they wanted to, the IAF could wipe Putins Patriots off the face of the earth.. and anyone else who stuck their nose in.

jolihokistix

11th Feb 2018, 02:27

Quote: The Britain-based Observatory, which monitors the Syria war through a network of activists on the ground..."
Yes Wokkafans, we all know the facts regarding this lone voice collating reports from the ground. Would you prefer he lived in a palace?

We have the Syrian version, the Israeli version, and now the version of this network on the ground. There is little else available, so I for one am thankful for what triangulation there is. Besides, the Observatory has a pretty good track record of neutrality, on balance, and much of the information they provide cannot be found anywhere else.

ORAC

11th Feb 2018, 12:41

Israeli Wounded Pilot Upgraded to Stable Condition

A pilot involved in Saturday's crash of an Israeli jet was upgraded to moderate condition, Rambam Medical Center in Haifa announced on Sunday. Trauma Unit director Dr. Yaron Bar Lavie said the pilot was removed from his respirator and he is fully conscious. "We are happy to report that the condition of the pilot has gotten better. We have ceased the anesthesia and he has returned to full consciousness ... and now his condition is good. His wife his with him and he's talking to her," said Bar-Lavi.

President Reuven Rivlin visited the wounded pilot on Sunday afternoon.

The second pilot of the jet that was allegedly shot down by Syrian anti-aircraft fire, who was mildly wounded, could be released as early as today, Dr. Mickey Halbertal, deputy director or the hospital told Army Radio on Sunday morning. Halbertal said the mildly wounded pilot suffered injuries from his parachute descent and the other one suffered a penetrating wound to his chest and abdomen. "His chances for healing are good. There will be pain and treatments, but I assess he will recuperate."

Brat

12th Feb 2018, 19:04

Meanwhile the cost of shooting down the F16 is being tallied up by Syria and Iran.

When messing with Israel there is always a consequence.

ORAC

13th Feb 2018, 15:56

U.S. Strikes Killed Scores of Russia Fighters in Syria, Sources Say (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-13/u-s-strikes-said-to-kill-scores-of-russian-fighters-in-syria)

U.S. forces killed scores of Russian mercenaries in Syria last week in what may be the deadliest clash between citizens of the former foes since the Cold War, according to one U.S. official and three Russians familiar with the matter.

More than 200 contract soldiers, mostly Russians fighting on behalf of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, died in a failed attack on a base held by U.S. and mainly Kurdish forces in the oil-rich Deir Ezzor region, two of the Russians said. The U.S. official put the death toll at about 100, with 200 to 300 injured.

The Russian assault may have been a rogue operation, underscoring the complexity of a conflict that started as a domestic crackdown only to morph into a proxy war involving Islamic extremists, stateless Kurds and regional powers Iran, Turkey and now Israel. Russia’s military said it had nothing to do with the attack and the U.S. accepted the claim. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis called the whole thing “perplexing,” but provided no further details.

President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, declined to comment on reports of Russian casualties, saying the Kremlin only tracks data on the country’s armed forces. Putin talked with U.S. President Donald Trump by phone Monday, but the military action in Syria wasn’t discussed, he said. “This is a big scandal and a reason for an acute international crisis,” said Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat and lawmaker who’s now an independent political analyst. “But Russia will pretend nothing happened.”......

Last week’s offensive began about 8 kilometers (5 miles) east of the Euphrates River de-confliction line late Feb. 7, when pro-Assad forces fired rounds and advanced in a “battalion-sized formation supported by artillery, tanks, multiple-launch rocket systems and mortars,” Colonel Thomas F. Veale, a spokesman for the U.S. military, said in a statement. The U.S., which has advisers stationed at the base alongside Syrian Democratic Forces troops, responded with aircraft and artillery fire. “Coalition officials were in regular communication with Russian counterparts before, during and after the thwarted, unprovoked attack,” Veale said. No fatalities were reported on the coalition side and “enemy vehicles and personnel who turned around and headed back west were not targeted.”

It’s not clear who was paying the Russian contingent, whether it was Russia directly, Syria, Iran or a third party. Reports in Russian media have said Wagner -- a shadowy organization known as Russia’s answer to Blackwater, now called Academi -- was hired by Assad or his allies to guard Syrian energy assets in exchange for oil concessions. “No one wants to start a world war over a volunteer or a mercenary who wasn’t sent by the state and was hit by Americans,” Vitaly Naumkin, a senior adviser to Russia’s government on Syria, said in an interview......

While Russia’s Defense Ministry didn’t mention mercenaries in its statement, it did say 25 “Syrian” fighters were injured, without elaborating. It accused the U.S. of using its “illegal presence” in Syria as an excuse to “seize economic assets,” even as it kept lines of communication with the U.S. open. Assad’s government in Damascus called the U.S. military action “barbaric” and a “war crime.”

The death toll from the skirmish, already about five times more than Russia’s official losses in Syria, is still rising, according to one mercenary commander who said by phone that dozens of his wounded men are still being treated at military hospitals in St. Petersburg and Moscow. Most of those killed and injured were Russian and Ukrainian, many of them veterans of the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine, according to Alexander Ionov, who runs a Kremlin-funded group that fosters ties to separatists and who’s personally fought alongside pro-government forces in Syria.

Grigory Yavlinsky, a longtime Russian opposition politician who helped steer democratic reforms after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, called on the authorities to come clean about what happened. “If there has been mass deaths of Russian citizens in Syria, then the relevant authorities, including the general staff of the Russian armed forces, have a duty to inform the country about this and decide who bears responsibility,” Yavlinsky, who is running against Putin in next month’s election, said on Twitter.......

racedo

13th Feb 2018, 21:36

unmanned_droid

13th Feb 2018, 23:28

"Perplexing" really doesn't cover it.

dead_pan

14th Feb 2018, 12:31

Lonewolf_50

14th Feb 2018, 13:44

Coming up on seven years of this civil war. Interesting article on Assad and his crew finally getting the upper hand back (http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/tangled-fight-in-syria-poses-new-dangers-to-us/ar-BBJ6ewO?li=AA4Zpp&ocid=ientp).

The Russians and the Turks are upset at America for somewhat different reasons, the Russians in re "who are you backing?" and the Turks "why are you still backing the Kurds?" It's a many v many scrap.

KenV

14th Feb 2018, 14:04

What again are US military doing in a civil war when they have been shown again and again to be aiding and abetting Al Qaeda and IS.This civil war is a bit complicated since it involves ISIS/ISIL which is/was also active in Iraq where the US has a lot of interests. Theoretically, US forces only target ISIS/ISIL forces, but this being a many vs many conflict, deconfliction is very complex and the politics behind them even more so.

dead_pan

14th Feb 2018, 14:58

Interesting thread on incident on Maxim Suchkov's Twitter feed @MSuchkov_ALM

Upshot is that it was a case of comms breakdown/mistaken ID, and will have minimal impact on US/Russian interactions in theatre

unmanned_droid

14th Feb 2018, 15:15

A case of grey on grey?

Brat

15th Feb 2018, 05:04

What again are US military doing in a civil war when they have been shown again and again to be aiding and abetting Al Qaeda and IS.

Russians don't forget so will be just a matter of time.

Err who just died?

Who is trying to retain a foot hold in the Med by backing one who deploys WMD’s against his own people?

Leader of a country who wiped out around 20 million of their own population.

The world does not forget!

glad rag

15th Feb 2018, 17:06

Err who just died?

Who is trying to retain a foot hold in the Med by backing one who deploys WMD’s against his own people?

Leader of a country who wiped out around 20 million of their own population.

The world does not forget!

Totally correct :D

Heathrow Harry

16th Feb 2018, 07:39

What always amazes me is history shows that Great Powers trying to influence local wars has little effect locally in the long run and even less in the Blance of Pwer worldwide

I don't think the USSR's efforts in Angola, Afghanistan Cuba etc or the US in Chile, Lebanon etc etc and both sides involvement in Syria and Vietnam have done anything to improve their security

A_Van

16th Feb 2018, 12:05

HH,

Exactly. The main lesson learned is that there are no lessons learned.

sandiego89

16th Feb 2018, 12:45

ORAC

19th Feb 2018, 19:10

Now this is getting really, really messy. You could have the Kurds, Americans and Syrians fighting against the Turks. God knows where the Russians and the Iranians would be.....

The Streetwise Professor seems prescient yet again...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/19/turkey-warns-assad-not-intervene-kurdish-enclave-afrin

Streetwise Professor » Putin?s Rock-and-a-Hard-Place Situation in Syria (http://streetwiseprofessor.com/?p=10826)

GlobalNav

20th Feb 2018, 04:30

The end is coming.

Heathrow Harry

20th Feb 2018, 09:23

well Megido (aka Armageddon) is not far away...................

glad rag

20th Feb 2018, 16:24

Syria war: Pro-government forces enter Kurdish-held Afrin - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-43131600)

So, let's recap on how many nukes are left at incerlik and what the nut job Erdoğan would do to get hold of them if it turns into the US vs Turkey...

ORAC

21st Feb 2018, 06:59

Turkey clashes with Assad regime in Syria for first time (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/turkey-clashes-with-assad-regime-in-syria-for-first-time-kbqpwfx5g)

Troops sent by the Assad regime to fight alongside a Kurdish militia in northern Syria were shelled by Turkey yesterday in a major escalation of the multi-sided conflict. Turkey had warned that it would continue its offensive against the Kurdish-held city of Afrin, even if the Syrian government carried out its threat to send its forces to fight alongside the YPG, the Kurdish militia defending the area.

President Erdogan of Turkey claimed that he had persuaded President Putin to intervene with the regime. However, videos posted online by pro-Assad journalists showed fighters cheering and waving Syrian flags as they headed off from a Shia-majority town near Aleppo saying they were going to fight in Afrin. Shortly afterwards reports came in that the convoy had come under Turkish shellfire, the first intentional clash between Turkey and the regime’s ground forces. “Turkish regime forces targeted the locations of popular forces with artillery fire as they arrived to the Afrin region,” the Syrian state news agency said. Turkey claimed that its action had compelled the advancing forces to retreat, but state media said that they had continued.

The intervention by Damascus came in response to an appeal by the Kurds as their defences began to crumble. They have held the Turks and their Free Syrian Army allies at bay for a month.The Turks took ten villages on Monday and more yesterday, and looked to link them to the border town of Azaz, already under their control. They are determined to stop the YPG — the Syrian branch of the PKK guerrilla group in Turkey — from establishing control of the border areas. “In the coming days, swiftly, we will lay siege to the centre of the town of Afrin,” Mr Erdogan told the Turkish parliament. “We will block the way of those who come to help from outside the city or the region.”.....

According to analysts, the pro-Assad forces wore the insignia of the Liwa al-Baqir militia rather than the official army. The regime had indicated that the troops it would send were from the “popular forces”, a term used for the local militias it has recruited from the start of the conflict. The Liwa al-Baqir, named after the fifth Shia Imam, was originally recruited from a local tribe in Aleppo province who were persuaded by Iran to convert to the Shia faith. They have been deployed against rebels and Islamic State.

Any escalation in the fighting between the regime and Turkey could further complicate the conflict. US, Russian and Iranian forces are already involved in the war on different sides, and Israel bombed Iranian positions in Syria this month, and suffered a rare loss of an F-16 jet shot down in response.

Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, called for direct negotiations between Damascus and Ankara. However, he did not confirm Mr Erdogan’s claim that President Putin had agreed to intervene on Turkey’s behalf.

jolihokistix

21st Feb 2018, 07:24

This is just the old tussle over land, Turkey vs Syria, with the mobile element of the Kurds from both sides of the porous borders making up the triangle. The Kurds can and do play both sides.
Neither Sunni Turkey nor Alawite/Shia Syria want the Kurds to declare their own nation.
Turkey and the Syrian SDF rebels now happen to be allied and advancing south against the Afrin Kurds, who will accept help from anyone, even the Syrian government or supporters of. Syria would not like Turkey to succeed on Syrian lands, naturally. Syria is backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

The Syrian FSA is backed by the US, and allied with Kurds east of the Euphrates. The US is playing a waiting game, but many of their sympathies probably still lie more with Sunni Turkey, and not with the Syrian Assad regime.

There we are, clear as mud.

Lonewolf_50

21st Feb 2018, 14:34

So, let's recap on how many nukes are left at incerlik and what the nut job Erdoğan would do to get hold of them if it turns into the US vs Turkey... Yeah, those nukes still being in Turkey strikes me as a crap idea for over 20 years. NATO retired a bunch of it's nuke plans in the 90's after the wall came down, and a lot of the tactical nukes were moved or removed. Why the US agreed to keep a modes pile of them in Turkey mystifies me. (Three administrations worth of stupid IMO: Clinton's, W's, and Obama's all should have pulled them out, but didn't.).

ORAC

26th Feb 2018, 07:21

Investigation finds pilots of downed F-16 failed to defend themselves (https://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-5131594,00.html)

The pilot and navigator of an Israeli F-16 downed by Syrian anti-aircraft fire failed to defend themselves as required, according to the conclusions to the IDF's investigation into the incident, which were made public on Sunday. A summary of the investigation released by the IDF said that the crew had chosen "to complete the mission and not defend themselves sufficiently. Their actions did not correlate with standard procedure while under enemy fire."

The events of February 10 began in the early morning hours when an Iranian drone infiltrated Israel. An IAF Apache helicopter shot it down, while fighter jets were scrambled to attack 12 Syrian and Iranian targets in Syria in retaliation. On their way back to base, the Israeli planes came under Syrian anti-aircraft fire, with one missile exploding near one of the planes and bringing it down. The pilot and navigator were able to bail out of the plane before it crashed near Kibbutz Harduf. The pilot was seriously injured, while the navigator was only lightly hurt. Both have since been discharged from the hospital.

The investigation into the incident, which was presented to IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, determined that the advanced planning for the operation was done properly, and the intelligence for the mission was sufficient, leading to the successful destruction of the targets, which were marked prior to the retaliatory strike. In total, the Syrian aerial defense apparatus launched 27 missiles at IAF planes throughout the night and early morning as events unfolded, 13 of them were fired while Israeli jets were attacking the Iranian drone's control and command center. One of the missiles, a large long-range outdated SA-5 missile, hit the Israeli F-16.

The warning systems in the F-16 that was hit were found to be in order and alerted the pilot and navigator of the threat on time. The seven other planes that went out on the bombing mission were all able to defend themselves from enemy missiles by and completed their tasks successfully. Despite this, the downed F-16's team failed to deploy countermeasures. The pilot and navigator failed to take heed of the SA-5 missile, which locked onto their plane. The Israel Air Force determined that to be a "professional error."

"In the operational theatre, there were a number of planes that did indeed defend themselves against the Syrian launchings while completing their mission. One of the planes that did not defend itself, was hit," senior IAF officer told reporters. The crew should have defended themselves as a priority over completing the offensive mission, the officer said. He said the "heart of the event" was "the hiatus between their completing the mission successfully and taking defensive measures and ensuring survivability.”

“The mission was completed successful and still, the plane should not have been downed, that is the standard we expect and we train for this," he said.

He did allow that the air force's control center could have been more persistent in alerting the pilots to the missile that locked onto their plane, "in a way that might have gotten the other shoe to drop sooner for the pilots." The IAF officer also noted the amount of Syrian anti-aircraft missiles fired at the Israeli jets was bigger than in past incidents, but this was taken into account when preparing for the mission. The teams on the other planes that went on the mission were instructed to attack the drone's control and commander center if the leading plane, which was eventually hit, is busy defending itself and cannot complete the mission.......

jolihokistix

26th Feb 2018, 07:59

Both Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya are reporting gas bombs dropped on Ghouta last night. The latter specifies the gas as chlorine, quoting a local doctor.

Lonewolf_50

26th Feb 2018, 18:59

ORAC:
In total, the Syrian aerial defense apparatus launched 27 missiles at IAF planes throughout the night and early morning as events unfolded, 13 of them were fired while Israeli jets were attacking the Iranian drone's control and command center. One of the missiles, a large long-range outdated SA-5 missile, hit the Israeli F-16. Hmmm, an interesting look at the IADS in place.

ORAC

6th Mar 2018, 16:32

Russian military plane crashes in Syria, killing 32 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-military-plane-crashes-in-syria-killing-32-rz0w6gpxp)

A military transport plane has crashed at Russia’s airbase in Syria killing all 32 people on board.

The Antonov An-26 with 26 passengers and six crew came down 500m short of a runway at the Hmeimim base near Latakia, in the west of the country. Russia’s defence ministry said it had not been fired on as it approached. “According to preliminary information, the crash may have been caused by mechanical failure,” it added......

It appeared to be the biggest loss of servicemen in a single incident in Syria since Russia’s intervention in the country’s civil war began in 2015, although it was unclear who exactly was on board the aircraft. One unconfirmed report in Moscow said the aircraft was flying in from the Kuweires airbase in Aleppo province and there were some civilians on board......

ORAC

14th Mar 2018, 05:42

US threat to strike Syria over bombing of Ghouta (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-threat-to-strike-syria-over-bombing-of-ghouta-kn30p3lkr)

The United States has threatened to carry out unilateral attacks on Syria if President Assad continues to bombard the rebel pocket of eastern Ghouta.

Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, said that Russia had not kept the commitment it made when it agreed a ceasefire over Syria last month. She reminded the UN security council that last April President Trump ordered airstrikes in response to a chemical weapons attack by the Assad regime on the town of Khan Sheikhoun. “The security council failed to act,” she said. “The United States struck the airbase from which Assad had launched his chemical attack. We repeat this warning.”

“We also warn any nation determined to impose its will through chemical attacks and inhuman suffering, most especially the outlaw Syrian regime. The United States remains prepared to act if we must. It is not the path we prefer but it is a path we have demonstrated we will take, and we are prepared to take it again.”

Russia claimed that rebels in eastern Ghouta were preparing to fake a chemical weapons attack to give the US a pretext to strike regime sites in Damascus. “In the event of a threat to the lives of our servicemen, Russia’s armed forces will take retaliatory measures against the missiles and launchers used,” Valery Gerasimov, the Russian chief of staff, said.......

A_Van

14th Mar 2018, 10:23

This indeed sounds serious. The rhetoric from both sides reminds the cuban crisis in 1962.
Hot heads should be calmed down.

IMHO all the high-ranked generals (again, on both sides) should be locked somewhere in a movie hall for a couple of hours and re-watch stuff like "Fail Safe" or "Dr. Strangelove".

Remains of ISIS and Al-Nusra (supported by US) or Assad's regime (supported by Russia) do not deserve such attention to put the whole mankind at threat.

Buster Hyman

14th Mar 2018, 10:53

Putin clearly doesn't want Trump to take his Crown as the worlds biggest nutcase so he's putting in some sterling efforts in Blighty at the moment!

Lonewolf_50

14th Mar 2018, 21:20

Buster, can you please take that to JB? There is a thread on that topic there. This thread is about Syria, mostly.

Buster Hyman

14th Mar 2018, 21:51

The same guy is calling the shots in Syria. Attests to the nature of Putin & should be considered in context with his actions in Syria.

ORAC

31st Mar 2018, 06:50

Macron out of his depth, says Turkey (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/macron-out-of-his-depth-says-turkey-w0fw7hx9f)

President Macron has cast himself as a peacemaker in Turkey’s war against Kurdish forces, drawing a furious attack yesterday from President Erdogan who told the French leader that he was out of his depth.

Mr Macron has taken up the cause of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia, which is under assault by the Turkish armed forces in Syria as a “terrorist organisation”.

Mr Erdogan, whose country is a Nato ally of France, said in Ankara: “Don’t get into things that are out of your depth. Those who go to bed with terrorists, or even host them in their palaces, will sooner or later understand the mistake they’re making.” France “has yet to give an account for its dirty and bloody past,” he added. He appeared to be referring to its record in the colonial era. After backing the Kurds, France “no longer has the right to complain about terror organisations, terrorists and terror attacks”, he said.....

A senior Turkish official added that support for the Kurds could make France a “target of Turkey”.

Mr Macron has clashed repeatedly with Mr Erdogan since taking office last May. In France, 75 per cent approve of how Mr Macron represents the nation abroad. He invited leaders of the YPG to the Élysée Palace on Thursday as part of a team from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The SDF, dominated by Kurds, is backed by the US-led coalition in the war against Islamic State. Mr Macron offered to mediate on their behalf and a senior Kurdish official said that he promised to send French forces to help them.......

ORAC

8th Apr 2018, 20:23

http://thehill.com/policy/international/382196-mccain-trump-should-act-on-alleged-syria-chemical-attack

https://nypost.com/2018/04/08/trumps-response-to-syria-attack-is-defining-moment-is-his-presidency-graham/

Wokkafans

9th Apr 2018, 01:25

Syrian state-owned SANA says that T4 (Tiyas) military airbase is under attack.

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/983152996740751361

https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/983152375195209728

ORAC

9th Apr 2018, 06:58

Syria will see US price for chemical attack as worth paying (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/08/syria-will-see-us-trump-retribution-for-chemical-attack-as-price-worth-paying)

“.....According to Human Rights Watch, since the JIM ceased to exist the Syrian government is thought to have used chemical weapons five times, not including this weekend’s attack. In total HRW identified 85 chemical weapons attacks during the war, the vast majority by Assad’s forces. A taboo was becoming the new normal. What was once met with revulsion was starting to be met with a weary shrug of the shoulders. Red lines were blurring into invisibility......

Syria for its part will brace itself for US retribution and, even if it is deadly, regard it as a price worth paying. Assad will feel the alleged use of the chemical weapons served their purpose in destroying the rebel’s last resistance. Following the attack the rebel group Jaish al-Islam accepted a previously rejected Russian deal to leave Douma. Trump may punish Assad, but in the absence of a new approach from the west, Assad will think his gruesome methods are winning the war.“.......

A_Van

9th Apr 2018, 07:37

According to some rumours there were two Israeli F-15 that attacked the airbase of the "failed dentist". Missiles were sent from the Lebanese air space.

Lyneham Lad

9th Apr 2018, 10:30

Article just published in The Times on-line version:-

Israel ‘behind attack on Syrian airbase that killed Iranian soldiers’ (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/israel-behind-attack-on-syrian-airbase-that-killed-iranian-soldiers-qqf7bxbl0?shareToken=86c419b0c417e2d5045f82ba7bbb4cab)

ORAC

11th Apr 2018, 07:31

I would have thought this is another reason civil aircraft should be advised to avoid the region.

Russia Jamming GPS in Syria (https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/russia-has-figured-out-how-jam-u-s-drones-syria-n863931)

A_Van

11th Apr 2018, 07:53

roving

11th Apr 2018, 09:54

Yes, _another_ reason. The main one is about US plans to start a massive strike.

Not just the US.

Jackonicko

11th Apr 2018, 11:34

Russia’s Interfax news agency quoted the Russian Defence Ministry as saying that said two Israeli F-15s had carried out the strike, firing eight missiles from Lebanese airspace. Russia said that Syrian air defences had shot down five of the eight missiles fired, with three hitting the western part of the aerodrome (the Iranian enclave - there are pictures by the Iranian FARS news agency).

But how could two F-15s launch eight missiles - the primary stand off weapon still seems to be Popeye/Have Nap, two of which can be carried. Glide weapons like Spice or JDAM surely wouldn't reach Tiyas from 'Lebanese airspace'?

ORAC

11th Apr 2018, 12:55

Delilah? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delilah_(missile))

F-16 carries 2, F-15I should be able to carry 4.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/33/Delilah_missile_side.jpg/1200px-Delilah_missile_side.jpg

https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/an-f16i-sufa-of-the-israeli-air-force-taking-off-from-ramon-air-force-picture-id181828535

BEagle

11th Apr 2018, 13:07

I see that the megalomaniac idiot has been making warmongering threats on Twitter again.

Is there no limit to his crass behaviour?

Mostly to divert attention from the FBI and lawyers investigating his own behaviour, perhaps?

Cazalet33

11th Apr 2018, 13:50

Is there no limit to his crass behaviour?

No.

Nor will there be, even if he promotes his horse to the Senate; and its arse to be National Security Advisor.

langleybaston

11th Apr 2018, 15:46

Is not the present situation the result of Obama not enforcing his red line?
Unless a very firm military rebuke is administered very soon, B and C warfare may become normalised in Assad and Putin's minds.
I don't approve of Trump [understatement] but I do believe action needs to follow words. Not a good place, but we are where we are.

A_Van

11th Apr 2018, 17:03

.....

Mostly to divert attention from the FBI and lawyers investigating his own behaviour, perhaps?

I think this line is quite considerable.
Some think, based on the experience in Lybia, Iraq and Yugoslavia, that such "war gaming" is not so dangerous but might bring enough glory to bury some questionable behaviour in the past.

And it's very dangerous to think that all this is not dangerous.

ORAC

11th Apr 2018, 17:15

And it's very dangerous to think that all this is not dangerous. As Assad is about to find out.

A_Van

11th Apr 2018, 17:30

Delilah? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delilah_(missile))

F-16 carries 2, F-15I should be able to carry 4.

"Why, why, why, Delilah?" :)

It's not the only one recently developed by smart guys in the desert.

This one also seems to be quite effective, and F-15, F-16 and even MiG-29 can carry 4 of them:

IAI Reveals New Air-to-Ground Missile | Israel Defense (http://www.israeldefense.co.il/en/content/iai-reveals-new-air-ground-missile)

ORAC

11th Apr 2018, 17:47

An ARM with an attack profile seems similar to the ALARM, but without a loiter capability. Not sure I’d expect the Syrians to intercept them, rather switch their radars off.

The Israel targets are also usually storage depots or convoys used by the Iranians to transfer missiles to Hezbollah - not the Syrian AD system.

GlobalNav

11th Apr 2018, 21:11

Lonewolf_50

12th Apr 2018, 04:01

@GlobalNav: I don't see him getting a second term. His own party is getting weary of his act ... and I'll suggest that they are fully aware that he isn't of their party and never was. He is of the Trump party. Whatever show/action, on whatever stage, that he sees as promoting the Trump brand he'll undertake. Trade? War? Immigration? Treaties? Deals? Whatever he thinks makes him look good.

They (GOP congress types) are having morning after regrets, and no cigarette. :p The night before (as it were) if you watched the GOP primaries, they had asked him if he'd "respect them in the morning" and he made clear that "he didn't respect them now." And they still went to bed with him.

PJ O'Rourke's Parliament of Whores, brought to life.
It is disturbing to see that these folks have the power to declare war, while he (Trump) has war powers that can be exercised short of a war declaration. Lots of them, and about 60 years of precedent. Uncomfortable days ahead.

Our winged brethren are going to be sent forth as one more act for this show: in the theater of the absurd. Blood sport, in a curious version of the game.

Jackonicko

12th Apr 2018, 05:17

Delilah. Good call Orac. Thank you

jolihokistix

12th Apr 2018, 05:47

Incoming!

(The US must have already clobbered Syria, stealthily. Assad denies it, of course, and the Russians never saw anything. And the whole exercise did not cost the US taxpayer a single penny.)

ORAC

12th Apr 2018, 06:10

Theresa May prepares Britain to launch assault on Assad regime in Syria (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-prepares-britain-to-launch-assault-on-assad-p637f9vbc)

Theresa May has cleared the way for Britain to join a US-led military attack on Syria within days after national security advisers presented new evidence blaming President Assad for the “barbaric” gas attack in Douma.

The prime minister is recalling cabinet ministers from their Easter break to seek approval today. She is set to defy calls, including from Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leader, to follow recent convention and allow MPs a vote.... Senior ministers summoned to this afternoon’s emergency cabinet will be asked to “consider the next steps”, according to a Downing Street source. Mrs May is likely to make the case for military action on the basis that it is necessary to deter future gas attacks......

Royal Navy attack submarines, armed with cruise missiles, are understood to be moving into range from this evening to be ready to take part in a strike on Syria. A Type 45 destroyer is also in the Mediterranean on a routine deployment but could be manoeuvred to participate. HMS Duncan is fitted with an air defence missile system able to blast incoming Russian missiles. RAF fast jets operating from Cyprus are also ready for action. “We have planes on the tarmac in Akrotiri,” a Whitehall source said. “We are ready.”.....

Heathrow Harry

12th Apr 2018, 06:48

roving

12th Apr 2018, 06:56

Given much of Putin's (and his cronies) wealth is said to be channelled through Cyprus, that may not be decision he would support.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/eu-passports-for-sale-in-sunny-cyprus-lure-rich-russians-and-their-cash-a7732326.html

Just a spotter

12th Apr 2018, 07:13

"“We have planes on the tarmac in Akrotiri,” a Whitehall source said. “We are ready.”...."

If I was Assad I 'd tell the Govt of Cyprus that any strike from Akrotiri would mean Syria would retaliate - and there might well be collateral casualties in the local population...

Not only would it murder the tourist trade it would almost certainly stir up calls to close the bases........... and I don't think we really want that do we??

Out of curiosity, does the government of Cyprus need to give permission for UK forces to launch an attack from bases on the island?

The reason I ask, is that Turkey is an ally of Russia and Iran in Syria hence on the side of the current regime. It’s possible that Nicosia may not want to provoke the Turks especially if they are concerned at the possibility of a wider regional conflict.

On a seperate note,it's being reported that most of the Russian naval assets in Tartus have deployed to sea

https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/russian-american-warships-put-to-sea-ahead-of-strikes-on-syria

JAS

BEagle

12th Apr 2018, 07:23

roving

12th Apr 2018, 07:30

The territory of the Republic of Cyprus shall comprise the Island of Cyprus,
together with the islands lying off its coast, with the exception of the two areas
defined in Annex A to this Treaty, which areas shall remain under the sovereignty of
the United Kingdom. These areas are in this Treaty and its Annexes referred to as the
Akrotiri Sovereign Base Area and the Dhekelia Sovereign Base Area.
Article 2
(1) The Republic of Cyprus shall accord to the United Kingdom the rights set
forth in Annex B to this Treaty.
(2) The Republic of Cyprus shall co-operate fully with the United Kingdom to
ensure the security and effective operation of the military bases situated in the
Akrotiri Sovereign Base Area and the Dhekelia Sovereign Base Area, and the full
enjoyment by the United Kingdom of the rights conferred by this Treaty.

https://www.mfa.gr/images/docs/kypriako/treaty_of_establishment.pdf

Easy Street

12th Apr 2018, 07:58

Turkey is an ally of Russia and Iran in Syria hence on the side of the current regime.

That’s a very long way from the truth. Until fairly recently Turkey was actively opposed to Iran and the Assad regime for 2 main reasons: one, the extension of Iranian (Shi’a) influence westwards stymies Erdogan’s aim of reestablishing an Ottoman-style (Sunni) influence over the region. Two, more pressingly the Assad regime tolerated the presence of the Kurdish groups with which Turkey has long been obsessed. Turkey’s active opposition to the Assad regime has been suspended in response to 2 short-term factors only: one, a desire to avoid friction with Russia (certainly falling short of an alliance, evidenced by continued US and UK access to Turkish airspace) and two, the current inability of the Assad regime to do anything to prevent Turkey’s new Kurd-suppressing activities in northern Syria. As and when these short-term factors subside, the strategic reasons for Erdogan to oppose Assad will reassert themselves. I can’t see him being anything but happy for the West to chip away at what is essentially Iranian power.

It’s true that there are risks to using Akrotiri as a base for striking Syria, but not from Turkey IMHO. I would be far more worried about what political trouble the Russians could stir up in the RoC. I can’t see them attacking but some ‘threatening’ westbound sortie profiles out of Syria would quickly stir up a hornet’s nest.

Just a spotter

12th Apr 2018, 08:23

Apologies if it’s previously been posted,

This site might be of interest, pulling “crowd sourced” publically available information together and presenting in on a map.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/

JAS

ORAC

12th Apr 2018, 08:26

Grauniad: “Military officials in all three capitals insisted the bomb had been dropped from one of two Syrian government helicopters that had taken off from the Dumayr airbase north of Douma 30 minutes earlier. Its flight path was mapped.“.....

Image from 2014 - but I doubt plans have changed much.....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BmkURliIAAA_zBb?format=jpg

https://youtu.be/3VCGTibGuag

glad rag

12th Apr 2018, 08:50

One hopes that any so-called evidence the spooks have found is unequivocal, unlike the Iraqi-WMD lies...

Much as I dislike him, Corbyn is right on this occasion. Defying the calls for MPs to have a vote ought to lead to Mother MayDay's downfall following a vote of no confidence in what passes for her government.

She can't win in your eyes can she beagle, Soviet nerve agent thrown around English town (You know the stuff Putin personally assured the monitors had been disposed off) what do you think the PM should have done then, just said **** it and rolled over for the soviet bear?

Pontius Navigator

12th Apr 2018, 09:30

A_Van

12th Apr 2018, 09:35

Grauniad: “Military officials in all three capitals insisted the bomb had been dropped from one of two Syrian government helicopters that had taken off from the Dumayr airbase north of Douma 30 minutes earlier. Its flight path was mapped.“.....

Flight path on the map actually means nothing. As it already happened several times in the past, as soon as syrian jihaddists, being at the edge of survival, see any plane in the sky (Syrian, Russian), they blow up a barrel with chemicals on the ground and start shouting about "bombing". Then immediately arrives poorly staged "theatre" with clowns such as "white helmets" and the shout is being amplified.

Some 40 tons of chemicals have been totally found on the territories that were freed from terrorists, but non of the "western criers" arrived to see them.

And that particular recent case in the Douma city/village seems even more questionable. A question arises whether there was any barrel at all.

glad rag

12th Apr 2018, 09:54

GR, with BEagle on this. The more I see that chemical decontamination video the more false it seems.

When doused in an unknown chemical one's first reaction is to strip off your clothes and then douse with water.

In the video was this a second wash down? Those doing the washing took no precautions against contamination.

Now it should not be a case of untrained and unknowing civilians treating the casualties, chemical has supposedly been in use in the region for years. They should be aware of precautions.

what video? what was the official advice?? "wash your clothes"???

TBH [and fair] WHAT CIVIL DEFENCE ORGANISATION is there to organise a response.

I have a feeling that making the local population AWARE of the RISKS at PD has not been a priority for the Civil Service.

Would be interesting to see what the actual POLICY is both at PD and the local authorities. Probably lain dormant for many years.....you know how it is, no need to upset people, we haven't the budget etc, etc.

BEagle

12th Apr 2018, 10:20

glad rag, any 'evidence' must be beyond any doubt whatsoever. That Novichok was used in Salisbury might have been confirmed by Porton Down specialists, but where is the smoking gun of state involvement?

Quite plausible that 'someone' obtained the substance without the knowledge of the Russian state, but why on earth Russia hasn't been allowed to become involved in the investigation? I listen to the bluster from that bag of wind who is allegedly our Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs with despair and haven't trusted a single utterance from him ever since his flawed propaganda at the time of the 2016 plebiscite.

If someone uses something as a weapon, you need 100% proof before considering action. That's the same whether the weapon is stolen nerve agent, a barrel of bleach or whatever.

If Mother MayDay denies MPs a vote after having presented whatever evidence she claims to have, she must face a vote of no confidence.

roving

12th Apr 2018, 10:49

glad rag

12th Apr 2018, 10:53

Thaihawk

12th Apr 2018, 11:00

langleybaston

12th Apr 2018, 11:07

Prove that the nerve agent was stolen then.

Quite.

Motive? tick
Means? tick
Opportunity? tick

Either Russia did the Novichok job, or allowed some other agency to do it.

The creeping normalisation of such means must be stopped.

Syria is yet another example.

roving

12th Apr 2018, 11:29

It appears that the Russian and US military are talking. Perhaps like the North Koreans, they do not want to call Trump's bluff.

Meanwhile the Telegraph posts

Boris Johnson has said the the Kremlin “must give answers” after an international watchdog confirmed that Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were poisoned with a "high purity" strain of Novichok nerve agent in Salisbury.

The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons said that it had been able to “confirm” the findings of British scientists about the nerve agent.

It represents a significant boost to Theresa May, who has said that Russia was directly responsible for the attack. Mr Johnson said that only Russia has the “means, motive and record” to have carried out the attack.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/12/russian-spy-daughter-poisoned-high-purity-strain-novichok-chemical/

A_Van

12th Apr 2018, 11:43

It appears that the Russian and US military are talking. Perhaps like the North Koreans, they do not want to call Trump's bluff.

Meanwhile the Telegraph posts

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/12/russian-spy-daughter-poisoned-high-purity-strain-novichok-chemical/

Porton Down experts can't say anythingabout the origin of the nerve agent (if any)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/03/porton-down-experts-unable-to-verify-precise-source-of-novichok (https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/03/porton-down-experts-unable-to-verify-precise-source-of-novichok)

And who is that strange guy (the one that does not have a hair comb ) to make conclusions? A Nobel prize chemistry scientist? Just a populist.

The same about the lady who studied geography at the university and then worked in the banking sector.

Looks like they soon will start talking about jet fighters and missiles :-)

roving

12th Apr 2018, 11:48

This seems to fit the bill.

The duck test is a form of abductive reasoning. This is its usual expression:

If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck.

The test implies that a person can identify an unknown subject by observing that subject's habitual characteristics. It is sometimes used to counter abstruse, or even valid, arguments that something is not what it appears to be.

BEagle

12th Apr 2018, 13:05

Either Russia did the Novichok job, or allowed some other agency to do it.

Quite probably 'a Russian', but I await firm evidence that it was the Russian state per se.

Meanwhile, Boris-the-bull$hitter has been uttering his usual Trump-level crass non-diplomatic nonsense. Mother MayDay's government really does us no favours at present.

pax britanica

12th Apr 2018, 13:14

The UK government is facing the biggest crisis since WW2 in Brexit and what does it do - gets involved in the Middle East which is nothing to do with us.

As for moral high ground we were busy using chemical weapons before Putin was born.

And as for the USA -remember agent orange in Vietnam,

Not that I am cynical but.....

gr4techie

12th Apr 2018, 13:43

The test in the criminal law is "the jury must be sure of guilt".

I am sure the Russian State was involved in the poisoning of the Skripals, just as i am sure it was involved in the murder of Litvinenko.

Percentages do not come into it. Either one is sure or one is not.

The tenor of your posts on this issue suggest you are not sure.

It's actually the prosecution must prove guilty beyond all doubt.
Even if there's 0.01% doubt then the accused must be acquitted.
All of the burden of proof is on the prosecution, the defence is innocent by default and it's perfectly acceptable for them to remain silent, their silence can't be interpreted as guilt.
A Judge once said to us that our [criminal] law is happy for criminals to slip through the net rather than send one innocent man to prison.

glad rag

12th Apr 2018, 13:45

glad rag

12th Apr 2018, 13:47

It's actually the prosecution must prove guilty beyond all doubt.
Even if there's 0.01% doubt then the accused must be acquitted.
All of the burden of proof is on the prosecution, the defence is innocent by default and it's perfectly acceptable for them to remain silent, their silence can't be interpreted as guilt.
A Judge once said to us that our [criminal] law is happy for criminals to slip through the net rather than send one innocent man to prison.

I'm sure if a jury were presented with ALL the facts
then it would be a pretty open and shut case.

Procrastinus

12th Apr 2018, 13:48

The UK government is facing the biggest crisis since WW2 in Brexit and what does it do - gets involved in the Middle East which is nothing to do with us.

The old adage of 'trouble at home - start a war overseas' springs to mind!

NRU74

12th Apr 2018, 14:01

It's actually the prosecution must prove guilty beyond all doubt.
Even if there's 0.01% doubt then the accused must be acquitted.
All of the burden of proof is on the prosecution, the defence is innocent by default and it's perfectly acceptable for them to remain silent, their silence can't be interpreted as guilt.
A Judge once said to us that our [criminal] law is happy for criminals to slip through the net rather than send one innocent man to prison.

Gr4
Historically the test was ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ not ‘all doubt’
Also a jury may be invited to draw ‘proper inferences’ from the accused’s silence both in the Police interview and also at his Trial (Criminal Justice and Public Order Act SS 34&35) and, unsurprisingly, those inferences are invariably adverse.

[email protected]

12th Apr 2018, 14:02

GR4 - surely the prosecution must only prove guilt beyond reasonable doubt, not 100% doubt?

If the Russian state is innocent then why did they not rush to show solidarity and immediately offer assistance? Instead they resorted to playground comments, ad hominem attacks and deliberate misinformation. Not the actions of an innocent bystander.

recceguy

12th Apr 2018, 14:04

Those two stories are such obvious fakes, that today everybody, from France to US, has been beck-pedalling.
Strikes will happen... one day. But not tomorrow.
And regarding UK and Teresa May, a big factor is not to let the British public realise that their country is following France, lagging behind in resolution to strike. A sort of competition, if you like.

Easy Street

12th Apr 2018, 14:04

The test in the criminal law is "the jury must be sure of guilt".

It's actually the prosecution must prove guilty beyond all doubt.
Even if there's 0.01% doubt then the accused must be acquitted.

Half right, and wrong. The criminal test is that guilt must be proven beyond reasonable doubt. What ‘reasonable’ means is deliberately not quantified; all we can say for sure is that it is stricter than ‘the balance of probabilities’ and less strict than ‘absolute certainty’. However I would observe that the criminal standard of proof is generally considered to be a very high one, tending towards the ‘certain’ end of the spectrum. ‘The jury must be sure’ is a formulation which guides laymen towards that without requiring 100% mathematical certainty.

KenV

12th Apr 2018, 14:26

It's actually the prosecution must prove guilty beyond all doubt.
Even if there's 0.01% doubt then the accused must be acquitted.

WOW!! That's a very very high bar. In the US the prosecution must prove guilt beyond all reasonable doubt. If the defense claims "ET did it, and not my client." they have certainly injected doubt. But that doubt is also completely unreasonable.

roving

12th Apr 2018, 15:00

gr4techie

12th Apr 2018, 16:21

In my 30 years at the Bar I never heard of the 0.01% test.

The test is as I set out.

The point I'm getting at... if there's any doubt the accused must be acquitted.
Is this not correct?

Just This Once...

12th Apr 2018, 16:34

No, as already explained above.

The jury may not even be unanimous as the judge may accept a majority verdict.

The checks and balances are provided by the appeals system, not a mythical 0.01% test.

ORAC

12th Apr 2018, 16:41

The burden on the prosecution is to prove beyond a reasonable doubt. That is, to the point that a reasonable person would consider guilt had been proved.

No percentages are involved, the words are plain English and intentionally so.

Pontius Navigator

12th Apr 2018, 18:14

I see the Torygraph has a firm grasp of geography. The Astute submarine s with a 1000 mile range would have to lie off the coast of Syria, Lebanon or Israel. Or West of Crete perhaps?8

KenV

12th Apr 2018, 18:24

The jury may not even be unanimous as the judge may accept a majority verdict.In the US, for criminal cases all jury verdicts must be unanimous. If the jury cannot bring a unanimous verdict, it is a "hung jury" and a retrial is required. For civil cases the prosecution must prove guilt "by a preponderance of the evidence," so a much lower standard than criminal cases and the jury verdict does not need to be unanimous.

ORAC

12th Apr 2018, 18:43

Which explains why over 95% of trials in the USA are decided by plea bargainin (https://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/23/us/stronger-hand-for-judges-after-rulings-on-plea-deals.html)g between the lawyers before a jury is even sworn in.....

westernhero

12th Apr 2018, 19:00

If Assad was to launch a strike against Cyprus, it will be one of his last acts on Earth.

Then this conflict could spread and the end game could involve nuclear weapons.

Really ? How's that then, the UK is going to nuke him ? And if Russian personal were killed by any of the forthcoming attacks and if Putin decided to attack the UK as the weak link rather than any US forces ?

If I was Putin and knowing the underlying discord in the UK to any further ' adventures ' in the Middle East I would go on RT tonight and announce that any deaths of his men would be answered by an attack on UK bases in the region. Just watch the sh1t storm then, Social media would go into meltdown, Tory MPs would panic and Corbyn could be PM by next week. Would Trump start a war with Russia by responding to a Russian attack on Akrotiri ?

If May attacks Syria she knows she does not have the backing of Parliament or the British people. She is only going into this to continue the pretence that the UK is the best friend of the US and its Presendent, a man she can't stand and not to be shown up by Trump's new best European friend Macron.

If I was Putin I would look to the example of Stalingrad, don't got for the Germans but go for the Italian and Romanian forces on the flanks.

To my mind May is a bloody idiot for getting into this. I hope British forces don't end up paying the price.

Easy Street

12th Apr 2018, 19:43

She is only going into this to continue the pretence that the UK is the best friend of the US

I think you may be on to something. But wasn’t there a big inquiry recently where one of the major criticisms was that Government had allowed maintenance of “access” and “influence” with partners to become the primary factor in its decision to take military action? Dillcott, or something? Anyone? :hmm:

Sense being spoken by the chair of the Defence Select Committee:

Dr Julian Lewis: "We mustn't get sucked in to supporting monsters on one side, the Syrian regime, or maniacs on the other, the Syrian rebels who are overwhelmingly led by Islamists and jihadi nutcases."

Amen. Lord Dannatt was also quoted the other day as saying that the West would have to drop its “Assad must go” rhetoric. He’s right. Russia, Iran and Assad have so much more at stake in Syria that this was always an absurd position to take, even without considering the consequences of the likely Islamist takeover of such a diverse state. The fact is that changes in the global balance of power and the poor outcomes of recent interventions have significantly reduced the West’s ability to back up its rhetoric on “norms” with meaningful action.

roving

12th Apr 2018, 20:07

If I was Putin and knowing the underlying discord in the UK to any further ' adventures ' in the Middle East I would go on RT tonight and announce that any deaths of his men would be answered by an attack on UK bases in the region. Just watch the sh1t storm then, Social media would go into meltdown, Tory MPs would panic and Corbyn could be PM by next week. Would Trump start a war with Russia by responding to a Russian attack on Akrotiri

Before posting it would be useful to do some basic research.

The overarching principle of NATO is that an attack on one member is an attack on all members.

Highlights
Collective defence means that an attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies.
The principle of collective defence is enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
NATO invoked Article 5 for the first time in its history after the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States.
NATO has taken collective defence measures on several occasions, for instance in response to the situation in Syria and in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
NATO has standing forces on active duty that contribute to the Alliance’s collective defence efforts on a permanent basis.

https://www.nato.int/cps/ua/natohq/topics_110496.htm

westernhero

12th Apr 2018, 20:32

So if Russian forces get killed by British bombs in a country that is nothing to do with NATO then the US will go nuclear ?? Really ? Let me say this again, there is no underlying UK interest in Syria, all that has happened is politicians playing games in the sandpit, remind me how well that's gone in recent years ?

Assad is the legitimate elected leader of the Syrian Arab Republic, Russian forces are in country by invitation by said legitimate President. UK and US forces are not. You kill Russians when they are there by invite and you are not and that is a very sticky legal position in my book. The Russians would be entitled to defend their forces by military action including attacking a base operated by those who have killed their men. Can you deny that ?

Putin does not even go that far, all he has to do is go on TV and state his intentions if his men get killed and just watch what happens to May. She is an idiot. She thinks that she can play games and there are no possible consequences to the UK, she is wrong.

Cazalet33

12th Apr 2018, 20:33

The Cabinet meeting outcome announcement does not appear to describe authorisation for a bombing campaign against a fellow sovereign state member of the UN. More of a holding statement in absence of an agreement to go to War.

If the PM cannot persuade her own appointees in her own Cabinet Room, imagine her trepidation at the prospect of persuading her more wayward backbenchers in a minority in the House.

Open house for party goers at Akrotiri and UK bases, for sure. Some Istar and tankering to show moral support, also for sure, as with some Tiffy top cover outside Syria's 12nm territorial zone, but that's just about all for the moment.

https://s31.postimg.cc/549u1zt57/Cabinet_Yes_No.jpg

Thomas coupling

12th Apr 2018, 22:06

There is so much that is 'wrong' about the UK's response to this:

1. May wants to curry favour with Trump to stay on the right side of him for future trade talks.
2. The UK wants to continue to maintain and hold up its perceived position as a saviour of the world. Unfortunatley we carry about as much respect in this new world as another third world country...who exactly is GB these days?
3. We have 4 nuke subs, 2 of which are at sea at any one time....that's IT.
4. Are we really going to contribute to collateral killing of Russian troops and precipitate a possible nuclear war?
5. What is the UK's end game? EVERYTIME we have interfered in another country's war, we have made it WORSE!

Chemical weapons are just another form of WEAPON. What's the difference between chemical weapons and conventional weapons? They are designed to do the same job.

The UK needs to wake up and smell the coffee. We are a second class economic nation and a third class military force. Let's concentrate on what we are good at - erm there is...? ooh, um then there is? :rolleyes:

Cazalet33

12th Apr 2018, 22:54

https://s31.postimg.cc/rkan2wf0b/Smart.png

tartare

12th Apr 2018, 23:31

So - now the ever firm and decisive Trump (sarcasm alert) is backing down.

"...Could be very soon or not so soon at all!"

The message that will send to Assad, and to Putin... is that the west is a paper tiger.
What is it they say - don't bring a gun to a fight unless you intend to use it...

Cazalet33

13th Apr 2018, 00:26

https://s31.postimg.cc/3zy5fnd2z/False_Start.jpg

Airbubba

13th Apr 2018, 04:05

Modern warfare...

BREAKING: Washington and Moscow are now secretly negotiating about incoming airstrikes against #Syrian military infrastructures. In exchange for #Russia's permission, #US will only carry out large scale cruise missile strike against some of already evacuated bases of Syrian Army

BREAKING: Despite extremely limited combat capability of #RoyalAirForce, #UK has intension to carry-out a political airstrike against #Syria during which Syrian MOD building which is already evacuated in #Damascus can be a target for SCALPs launched from #RAF's Tornado GR.4s.

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/984524002357112833

A_Van

13th Apr 2018, 05:41

....

Putin does not even go that far, all he has to do is go on TV and state his intentions if his men get killed and just watch what happens to May.....

To avoid over-quoting I am not copying all your post here, but everything you wrote looks perfectly right.

Regarding Putin, in spite of tons of reservations I have about having that man in charge of the country, I have to admit that he does have some patience. Or people in his crowd have it and influence him. IMHO, this is why he does not go on TV: everything was said by the generals and he does not want to escalate further.

In particular: if the missiles/bombs fly towards the spots where the Russian personnel is located, Russia will respond. Not just attempting to intercept the missiles, but also shoot at its carriers. IMHO planes and ships are such carriers, not the base in Cyprus if UK forces are considered.

I think negotiations are now taking place between US and Russia concerning the list of targets. Russia is likely to agree that some Syrian facilities may be destroyed (like a year ago) and they will not use their AD complexes, leaving the issue to the Syrians and their obsolete SAMs. US obviously want a very long list of such targets.

If so, the situation will remain in the same status: very hot, but still not crossing the red button line.

Heathrow Harry

13th Apr 2018, 07:20

99% of the UK population has no idea we have a base in Cyprus and they sure as hell wouldn't go to war over it - and, as I pointed out earlier, you forget the Cypriot Govt are also are a player.

A threat from Russia could/would lead to a request that the UK should leave - or at the every least not use the base. Either would be almost impossible to deflect

and as westernhero said NATO isn't going to go nuclear over say a Russian cruise missile strike on 4 Tornado GR's at the end of the Med...........

andrewn

13th Apr 2018, 07:36

HH - Cyprus has a patchy history recently of being both pro-Western and pro-Russia, but since the financial crash they've been noticeably less pro-Russia and a lot less vocal on foreign affairs in general. There might be a little posturing for a domestic audience, but I wouldnt expect any significant flak from them, for example over the use of Akrotiri.

ORAC

13th Apr 2018, 07:37

I can pick out two emerging threads of Russian cyber/diplomatic efforts over Syria at the moment.

The first is to bluster and threaten retribution against the UK if an attack takes place at all. This is perhaps because they think the UK can be peeled away from cooperating with France and the USA. Note that Russian cruise missiles could just as easily hit French bases in Jordan and the Gulf - and indeed France itself, as well as numerous US land and sea assets.

The second is a growing set of anonymous reports of US/Russian negotiations on any attack being against an agreed list of vacated bases and headquarters - Potemkin villages if you will - which would allow Russia to claim a victory after an attack by claiming it was merely a sham.

ImageGear

13th Apr 2018, 07:40

Having come through the original cold war and witnessed Russia's attempt at expanding it's influence to within 80 miles of Florida, what does the panel think is the Russian end game in this new domino strategy.

For sure, we know that the successful annexation of Crimea and the current incursion will not end the drive to influence further West. So where are the next targets for destabilisation or "liberation"?

What does the "final solution" look like?

IG

Thomas coupling

13th Apr 2018, 08:14

I read an article in the Sunday Times about a senior government aid (UK) who had spent 20 years in office in Russia in the embassy.
He recalls a fairly recent (couple of years old) altercation with his opposite number during a dinner where the conversation got heated somewhat and the russian lost his temper with him. The russion said to the brit: "You think we're all Barbarians here in Russia don't you?". Before the brit could answer, the russian said: !Well we **king well are, we always have been...if we can't earn respect in the world diplomatically then we will turn to the next best thing - fear!"

Think carefully what the world is looking at here....Putin is cold, calm and extremely ruthless. He is a trained assassin from his previous life. He thinks things through carefully, he spends time planning devious indirect methods of antagonising the west. He would have absolutely no compunction to cross the red line if he was directly attacked. Make no bones about this. He is the real McCoy.
Trump is a complete psycho. The man is unhinged. He is unfit for running a business never mind the most poewrfull country on earth.
Mankind will continue to teeter between stability and extinction as long as these two forces occupy the same space.
Be afraid, guys, be very afraid.

Evalu8ter

13th Apr 2018, 08:27

TC,
I tend to agree with your analysis. Everything Putin has done has been measured and calibrated to see what the reaction is from NATO and the EU. The Annexation of Crimea and the interference in Ukraine have provoked opprobrium, but little concrete reaction. Likewise, he strolled right over Obama's "red lines" in Syria, doubtless encouraging Assad to use WMD to see if the West had the "Minerals" to push back. Obama didn't - and his weak, disastrous Foreign Policy is now unwinding dramatically with a nuclearised NK, an emboldened Iran, a Russia basking in external successes (conveniently hiding economic and social deprivation at home....) and a number of allies now nervously worrying if they're next....yes, I'm looking at you Baltic States. Putin is assiduously trying to destabilise NATO; he's courting Turkey and, effectively, buying large parts of Greece. Trump was installed as he preached isolationism - doubtless Putin considered he'd not risk trading New York for Vilnius. However, Trump has not exactly followed the script - his retaliation for the last Chemical attack gave Putin pause to think, as has his sabre rattling with NK and China. What Trump and NATO do next has to be carefully thought through, and backed up. The time to contain Putin has passed by, how we deal with him now is very finely balanced as there is much "face" in the game......My opinion? A co-ordinated missile strike to "punish" Assad and warn Putin - who'll likely be in the Baltic States this time next year anyway......NATO/EU should not have become so greedy and pushed so far East - it enabled Putin to mobilise Russia's greatest fears, encirclement and invasion, to shore up his own position and that of his sponsors and supporters.

Heathrow Harry

13th Apr 2018, 08:37

Heathrow Harry

13th Apr 2018, 08:41

"Russia's attempt at expanding it's influence to within 80 miles of Florida,"

And NATO stretched to within 67 miles of St Petersburg..................

ShotOne

13th Apr 2018, 08:57

“...the RAF serving as the air arm of jihadi extremist fighters in Syria “... And I thought I’d never agree with anything said by Diane Abbot!

A_Van

13th Apr 2018, 09:26

....

What does the "final solution" look like?

IG

Trying to remain within the aviation topics and not in "general politics", would only like to say that the best solution would be stop provocations against Russia. Try to solve internal problems without inventing an external enemy who is to be blamed in anything and everything that goes wrong (or seems to go wrong). Trump/Reps vs Clinton/Dem in US, Brexit in UK, migration problems in Europe, etc. Yes, it is always the easiest way to consolidate population or alliance members (by diverting their attention from real problems), but it is too primitive. And it case with Russia (well armed) it is also quite dangerous.

This is of course valid for idiots in the Russian establishment, too.

Coming back to the aviation topic: again, strange to hear speculations about Cyprus. I am sure that even in a bad case Russia will not send cruise missiles to the British base near Limassol. What for? All those Tornados would be downed above the sea if they shoot at the Russian forces in Syria. Why to involve Cyprus?

ORAC

13th Apr 2018, 09:37

“...the RAF serving as the air arm of jihadi extremist fighters in Syria “... And I thought I’d never agree with anything said by Diane Abbot! Except they’re not, are they?

In fact the RAF is operating over northern Syria and Iraq - within the Russian S-400 envelope and unengaged - in action against ISIL. The target identified in the original UN Resolution and exactly the same target as supposedly being engaged by the Turkish and Russian aircraft performing coordinated operations in the same airspace.

It’s just that the Turks have been, instead, concentrating their efforts against any and all Kurdish forces whilst the Russians concentrate their efforts on those opposing Assad and ignore the rest - including ISIL.

roving

13th Apr 2018, 09:58

"Russia's attempt at expanding it's influence to within 80 miles of Florida,"

And NATO stretched to within 67 miles of St Petersburg..................

When countries join the EU they are entitled to become members of NATO.

Estonia is the closest NATO member to St Petersburg.

Estonia has a population of just 1.3 million.

The City of St Petersburg has a population of 5.2 million.

Does St Petersburg feel threatened by Estonia?

Of course not.

Has NATO any interest at all in repeating the errors of Napoleon and Hitler and invading Russia?

Of course not.

Russia is just peeved because it cannot do to the Baltic States what it recently did to the Ukraine, without a response from NATO.

That does not mean it is not playing mind games in the Baltic States. But with NATO providing defensive air cover, no-one living there is intimidated.

SARF

13th Apr 2018, 10:08

No need for fighting. Break Russia financially ..
Massive trade and finance embargo’s .. target the got rich quick gangsters, freeze assets ..
Tell Germany to cancel it’s pipeline etc or face tarrifs selling into,the US.
Trump had many more options than a few missiles

Putins popular at the moment. But popularity is fleeting when your populance is feeling poorer and hungrier

Easy Street

13th Apr 2018, 10:14

Except they’re not, are they?

I think the point was that they would be, if striking the Assad regime. Which is a fair one.

All those Tornados would be downed above the sea if they shoot at the Russian forces in Syria.

If the Tornados were launching cruise missiles I should imagine it would be from beneath the radar horizon of land-based SAM, which would mean fighters needing to be sent after them if Putin’s threat was to be fulfilled. Even if it was assumed that western escort fighters were kept away by the SAM, the Russian fighters would still have to run the gauntlet of naval SAM (and perhaps F22!?) while chasing the Tornados, at the same time as the air defence network would presumably be dealing with dozens of incoming missiles. It’s nowhere near as cut-and-dried as you make out...

...but what a mess!

FantomZorbin

13th Apr 2018, 10:57

#2182
You think we're all Barbarians here in Russia don't you ... Well we *** well are, we always have been...if we can't earn respect in the world diplomatically then we will turn to the next best thing - fear!

This is complete confirmation of part of the contents of a briefing I attended almost 30yrs ago, so no change there with or without Putin.

A_Van

13th Apr 2018, 11:06

....

If the Tornados were launching Storm Shadow they would probably do so from beneath the radar horizon of land-based SAM, ....

Correct, but do not forget about the Russian ships that would be moved forward (in fact, already moved "for training exercises"). They would detect the launch pretty soon. And they have means against such missiles.

Also, have you heard of OTHR (over-the-horizon radars)? Russia does have some and East Med is transparent for them (and "stealth" does not work here). Of course they can't guide anti-missiles, but early warning is quite important in such a scenario to give land-based SAMs enough time to get ready.

Third, considering the recent episode with the Israeli attack, even "grand-dad's" C-125 and "dad's" Buks operated by the Syrians were able to intercept 5 of 8 relatively new and smart A2S missiles.

Heathrow Harry

13th Apr 2018, 11:09

"Has NATO any interest at all in repeating the errors of Napoleon and Hitler and invading Russia? Of course not"

That's not how the Russians see it ...... and they're the only one's who count

You're argument about the relative size of Estonia and Russia is also not on - Cuba only had a population of 7.45 mm in 1962 but the US went crazy when the Russians turned up.......

A_Van

13th Apr 2018, 11:19

I read an article in the Sunday Times about a senior government aid (UK) who had spent 20 years in office in Russia in the embassy.
He recalls a fairly recent (couple of years old) altercation with his opposite number during a dinner where the conversation got heated somewhat and the russian lost his temper with him. The russion said to the brit: "You think we're all Barbarians here in Russia don't you?". Before the brit could answer, the russian said: !Well we **king well are, we always have been...if we can't earn respect in the world diplomatically then we will turn to the next best thing - fear!"

.....

Russian "diplomatic corps" is full of poorly educated dumbs and alcoholics. I assume such words could leave one's mouth over vodka.
However, having spent myself over 25 years in close contacts with US and European high-tech folks, I have never heard of such "exchange of views".
Unfortunately, many idiots recently appeared on the scene (incl. TV) on both sides using much "stronger expressions". Pity.

Easy Street

13th Apr 2018, 11:24

Russian ships ... have means against such missiles.

OTHR (over-the-horizon radars) ... can't guide anti-missiles, but early warning ... give[s] land-based SAMs enough time to get ready.

even "grand-dad's" C-125 and "dad's" Buks operated by the Syrians were able to intercept 5 of 8 relatively new and smart A2S missiles.

Back-pedalling already then? All your points are correct but they only speak to downing cruise missiles, not the aircraft launching them, which was what you originally said would happen. The ships’ locations would be known to the aircraft and easily avoided; there’s no way enough ships can be deployed to provide overlapping SAM coverage down to sea level all the way to Cyprus.

ORAC

13th Apr 2018, 11:26

A_Van.

With the best will in the world, OTH radar is only effective used over large areas of sea. There are surface wave coastal radars effective out to a couple of hundred miles, but only against surface targets, they wouldn’t pick up a cruise missile. Even if they could, detection range and identification in a crowded, and doubtless highly jammed EW environment like the eastern Med would be a nightmare.

Pontius Navigator

13th Apr 2018, 11:29

As Vilnius is in Lithuania and Lithuania is in NATO, Putin may consider Vilnius for New York a double win.

As for Russia's end game I submit that is too far in the future. In the near term I think he is more concerned with reesatablishing Russia's Cold War sphere of influence. Some of this is not possible as the Warsaw Last countries are deeply embedded in Europe but the Baltic States, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are much easier targets.

Russia lost its Mediterranean ports and anchorage so reestablishing their Syrian port is a logical step.

roving

13th Apr 2018, 12:36

Mark Galeotti is a highly regarded British academic with deep insight into Putin's mindset.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Galeotti

In this short recording dated February 2017, he was prophetic about Putin v Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X0Ud5SJs3s0

A_Van

13th Apr 2018, 14:18

ORAC,

Good to see the discussion going into the tech. direction, not political.

A_Van.

With the best will in the world, OTH radar is only effective used over large areas of sea.

Why sea only? It works over solid ground, too. But talking about East Med, water matters, indeed.

There are surface wave coastal radars effective out to a couple of hundred miles, but only against surface targets, they wouldn’t pick up a cruise missile.

I did not mean that kind of a radar, but more "classic" ones, with some 3000 km range.

Even if they could, detection range and identification in a crowded, and doubtless highly jammed EW environment like the eastern Med would be a nightmare.

Direct identification is of course not possible, but simply excluding "friends" we get "foe".
As for "highly jammed", it depends on particular wave length.
It would be very hot around 10 GHz, but OTHRs typically operate in the 2-30 MHz window.
I would be interested to see a jammer for this bandwidth.

ORAC

13th Apr 2018, 15:08

Russia hasn't got a long range OTH radar which covers the region. They do have a newer coastal OTH, "Sunflower", but only back in Russia and not covering the area. Even if they had its VHF band and eminently jammable.

Direct identification is of course not possible, but simply excluding "friends" we get "foe". I did a tour based at 280SU in Cyprus back in the day - I wish you luck. Ignoring all the air traffic talking to Nicosia, Tel Aviv etc there are many many more operating autonomously talking to nobody doing various surveillance tasks - none of whom could arbitrarily designated as a foe.

A_Van

13th Apr 2018, 15:58

Russia hasn't got a long range OTH radar which covers the region.
......

You said. Not the Russians :rolleyes:

ORAC

13th Apr 2018, 16:14

Nobody has. The mountain terrain north, east and west precludes a long range OTH and Syria and Lebanon don’t have coastal VHF surface wave radars. Israel probably has - but that wouldn’t help the Syrians much.

Just a spotter

13th Apr 2018, 16:26

Russia claiming they have evidence of who carried out the chemical attack on Douma. Can you guess who they say the evidence implicates ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIbFsuEs-oo

“We have .. evidence that proves Britain was directly involved in organizing this provocation,” defence ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said during a televised briefing. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-ghouta-provocati/russias-military-uk-involved-in-syrian-gas-attack-provocation-idUSKBN1HK24P

JAS

Heathrow Harry

13th Apr 2018, 16:45

The Russians have a real thing about English Spies... if only they really were so effective.......

ORAC

13th Apr 2018, 17:29

The Iranians will believe them. We are the “Little Satan” after all - and they have long believed we are the Machiavellian schemers leading on the gullible Americans...

ShotOne

13th Apr 2018, 18:52

In a roundabout way it’s a compliment; even during Cold War they believed all James Bond gadgets were real, and they’ve used the phrase “licenced to kill” in present crisis. But none of that turns bombarding Syria, with the possible exception of confirmed CW sites, into a good idea.

Flugplatz

13th Apr 2018, 19:44

Feels like a bit of a set-up for a strike on UK military locations or ships/aircraft i.e. if Russians are killed during a strike on Syria, attacking British mil is a slightly less confrontational way of seriously hitting back than hitting US mil. They are certainly are pretty p***** off with the UK for the global reaction to Salisbury. Testing Britain, NATO and Trump, with just enough to leave some wriggle-room to de-escalate

Easy Street

13th Apr 2018, 19:52

It’s an odd one. The “it could have been staged by the rebels” and “what good can come of intervention?” viewpoints were really starting to gain traction in the UK; in fact General Jonathan Shaw was making just that point on Sky News when he was inexplicably cut off earlier today. The tide was certainly running against action, in my view anyway. This accusation by Russia makes it a lot harder for those viewpoints to get a fair hearing and if anything strengthens the Government’s case for action. Do we think Russia actually *wants* us to attack so that it can exploit divisions in the aftermath?

TEEEJ

13th Apr 2018, 21:17

Russia claiming they have evidence of who carried out the chemical attack on Douma. Can you guess who they say the evidence implicates ....

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-ghouta-provocati/russias-military-uk-involved-in-syrian-gas-attack-provocation-idUSKBN1HK24P

JAS

Russians trying to cash in and spin on the recent propaganda story that UK Special Forces were captured near Damascus as the Syrians advanced.

Iran's news agency Fars, which is heavily linked to the government, claimed a number of British forces were being held captive by the Syrian army in the Eastern Ghouta region near the capital Damascus.

The report, quoting the Lebanese news channel al-Mayadeen’s correspondent in Moscow, added the forces were captured after “infiltrating” the region for the last month as part of a plot involving “terrorists and NATO forces" to attack Damascus.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/944967/syria-news-uk-SAS-ministry-of-defence-captured-troops

andrewn

13th Apr 2018, 22:17

This is all starting to look rather complex, and definitely not helped by Trump's first "missiles are coming" tweet (which must have had the US miltary top brass doing somersaults!).

Although the Maybot is an inadequate fool, I do feel for her right now as she's kind of damned if she does and damned if she doesn't. If I was in her position I'd pluck for the parliamentary vote and keep fingers crossed it gets voted down - then at least she can say she tried. And, in the meanwhile hopefully things will de-escalate.

I'm not exactly one for appeasement, but as somebody pointed out above, with two lunatics in charge of things (Putin and Trump) the last thing we want to do is provoke even further, surely?

dctyke

13th Apr 2018, 22:20

Al-bert

13th Apr 2018, 23:00

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VfRtmVMzT8

a distinct smell of fish detected!

flash8

13th Apr 2018, 23:05

a distinct smell of fish detected!

Indeed, not that subtle either!

Although the Maybot is an inadequate fool, I do feel for her right now as she's kind of damned if she does and damned if she doesn't. If I was in her position I'd pluck for the parliamentary vote and keep fingers crossed it gets voted down - then at least she can say she tried. And, in the meanwhile hopefully things will de-escalate.

If its voted down, she is out, and she knows it, hence avoidance of that route.

reynoldsno1

14th Apr 2018, 00:27

A co-ordinated missile strike to "punish" Assad and warn Putin
A golden opportunity for an operational trial of the S-400 system - the one manned by the Syrian Army of course.

tartare

14th Apr 2018, 01:06

Trump on air now.
US, UK and France have launched strikes.
AP reporting explosions heard in Damascus.
Pentagon briefing in 50 minutes.

EDIT : Interestingly, both aircraft and ships used - JASSM and Stormshadow?
Strikes reported in several districts around Damascus.
Already video on Twitter.
CNN reporting RAF Tornado GR4s fired Stormshadows at facilities around Homs.

thunderbird7

14th Apr 2018, 01:39

A golden opportunity for an operational trial of the S-400 system - the one manned by the Syrian Army of course.

...not forgetting that old adage that 'tracer (missiles) go both ways..'

tartare

14th Apr 2018, 02:11

Gen Dunford just said no Russian SAMs - just Syrian.
CNN also report Bones used.

ORAC

14th Apr 2018, 02:15

Pentagon briefing

No response by Russian forces. No coordination or advance notice of targets given to Russians except usual daily airspace coordination message from the CAOC in Qatar last night.

Attack was made against three Syrian targets A CW storage site, an HQ and a CW research facility at 2100 EST. Attack was made with both cruise missiles and manned aircraft. uS, British and French forces used in the attack.

BDR will take place overnight and a further briefing will be given tomorrow morning at 0900 EST.

I will be interested to see what weapons were used against the storage site to minimise the release and spread of the CW in the local area.

Airbubba

14th Apr 2018, 02:30

Attack was made against three Syrian CW storage sites and command centres at 2100 EST.

For clarity, the attack was at 9 pm Eastern Daylight Time (EDT, not EST), i.e. 0100Z.

Some eyewitness reports and video starting to come in on Syrian TV:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skKGBL_x86I

Easy Street

14th Apr 2018, 02:59

@alibunkallsky (Sky News) reporting all four Tornados returned safely. How’s about that then, Van? :D

The Pentagon press conference said that around double the number of missiles were fired compared to the Shayrat attack, which would make 120ish. Syrian TV is claiming 13 shot down. Not a great advertisement for the vaunted anti-missile capabilities, in fact a significant embarrassment if true given the rhetoric from Moscow.

I will be interested to see what weapons were used against the storage site to minimise the release and spread of the CW in the local area

MOD Statement (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/raf-jets-strike-chemical-weapon-facility-in-syria)

Looks like Storm Shadow was used against stored CW precursors. Presumably they’ll have assessed that releasing precursors in an isolated area would be an acceptable risk.

tartare

14th Apr 2018, 03:51

Yes - what's with this all singing, all dancing `feared' S-400 that can hold everything out to Cyprus, down to Israel and up to Turkey at threat?
There are reportedly at least two in the area.
Russians supposedly not given a heads up; so did they or the Syrians choose not to use it?

Airbubba

14th Apr 2018, 03:56

From the MOD statement:

The UK element of the carefully coordinated joint action was contributed by four Royal Air Force Tornado GR4s.

We appreciate the UK's enormous level of support in our military actions. :ok:

Bigpants

14th Apr 2018, 06:25

A face saving strike where the combatants signalled their intentions well in advance. The S400 did not fire at the GR4s and a handful of missiles hit a few sites around Damascus.

In next weeks news a dozen innocent people die in London as an IS radical plows van into crowd...says its revenge for Syria.

ORAC

14th Apr 2018, 07:31

a handful of missiles hit a few sites around Damascus. About 120 I believe - and there are reports of B-1 involvement.

Treble one

14th Apr 2018, 08:10

BBC also reporting use of Storm Shadow- the footage (MOD released) clearly shows each aircraft carrying a pair each. Target was on CW precursors just outside Homs.

Kerosene Kraut

14th Apr 2018, 08:23

Below the line, what valuable target can be hit if strikes are announced days ahead? You could even see the Russian navy moving out ships out of their base for days and their air defence looks like having remained silent. So everything was agreed before? Even Israel seems to pre-coordinate things with Russia these days.

So is this more than a show? Not exactly some credible chemical weapons deterrence it seems. Two days of evening headlines news and this was it.

dead_pan

14th Apr 2018, 08:35

Russian defence ministry now claiming Syria AD downed 150 of the 120 missiles launched against the country...

AnglianAV8R

14th Apr 2018, 08:39

This is all a bit worrying.
There's a farm just a few yards from us with a shed full of "precursors"

Treble one

14th Apr 2018, 08:39

Russian defence ministry now claiming Syria AD downed 150 of the 120 missiles launched against the country...

Sounds like a pretty formidable IADS they have there.....

Treble one

14th Apr 2018, 08:41

BBC now reporting that there will be no retrospective vote to approve last nights strikes.......
Its a bit late anyway now anyway?

Easy Street

14th Apr 2018, 09:16

In next weeks news a dozen innocent people die in London as an IS radical plows van into crowd...says its revenge for Syria

If there’s any revenge from this it won’t be from IS; they and all the other Sunni Islamist nutters are opposed to Assad so will presumably be happy to see his stuff getting broken. It will be Iran, Hezbollah or more likely Russia that does something about it...

So is this more than a show? ... Two days of evening headlines news and this was it

Everyone talks about how Putin plays the West, but I’ve actually quite enjoyed watching the West play him back. He doesn’t like it does he? Lots more to come ‘out of sight’ on this I fancy.

Kerosene Kraut

14th Apr 2018, 09:30

The west responded way better to Skripal than to Assad.

Basil

14th Apr 2018, 09:38

Right Hand Thread

14th Apr 2018, 09:44

From the MOD statement:

We appreciate the UK's enormous level of support in our military actions. :ok:

It’s the easiest way to avoid US ‘blue on blue’ attacks. :)

A_Van

14th Apr 2018, 10:42

...
Russians supposedly not given a heads up;

Do not worry, "nessun dorma" :rolleyes:

It was announced earlier that the Russians would only respond if the US & Co shoot at them. Nobody did, even no threat in the areas where two Russian bases are located. Thus, why to respond?

Lots of data concerning the western attack have been collected and are/will be analyzed, good.

...
...or the Syrians choose not to use it?

It seems that the Syrians used everything they had in terms of AD: C-125, C-200, 1st gen of BuK and 2-3 other types of AD systems, still from the times of Soviet Union. They even do not have C-300, while they were sold to Cyprus/Greece in 90's.

I wonder what exactly the intercept ratio was (per type of missile and per type of AD complex). First announcements differ greatly and seem not trustworthy. Western leaders are just saying that the goals have been achieved, which sounds vague. Conversely, the Russian MoD gives too detailed numbers, which I doubt a lot (i.e. 71 missile intercepted of 100+ and also split is provided per attacked facility/airbase):
https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12171300@egNews

It's in Russian but autotranslation should work...

air pig

14th Apr 2018, 11:24

Now who said it was a good idea to retire the Tornado fleet?

Strumble Head

14th Apr 2018, 11:29

From the MOD statement:

We appreciate the UK's enormous level of support in our military actions. :ok:
Well, probably that's most of the functioning a/c that we have available when matched against all the (competing) current threats and requirements?
As a very-ex-Superpower we have to deal with reality, not fantasy.

air pig

14th Apr 2018, 11:48

Well, probably that's most of the functioning a/c that we have available when matched against all the (competing) current threats and requirements?
As a very-ex-Superpower we have to deal with reality, not fantasy.

Support is not just missiles on target though is it.

NutLoose

14th Apr 2018, 11:54

Seriously, well done to those involved and one hopes everyone arrived home and continues to arrive home safely from any continuing operations.

ShotOne

14th Apr 2018, 11:58

“Enormous level of support..?” Come on, we know US isn’t short of airframes and could easily have deployed another four -or forty of your own. But that’s hardly the point. In terms of mandate, a coordinated strike by three of five perm Security Council members plays enormously better that a solo act.

Buster15

14th Apr 2018, 12:29

Now who said it was a good idea to retire the Tornado fleet?

A really good point. The aircraft which has been and still is the go to attack jet for well over 35 years is being retired simply on lack of funds grounds. I struggle to understand why we are doing so when Italy will continue to operate Tornado until 2027, Germany until 2030 at least and Saudi Arabia for many years to come. The RAF must have plenty of spares from the RTP programme so as to maintain GR4 until F35 becomes fully operational.
Yes I know that Typhoon is scheduled to take over Tornado roles at the end of this year. But that will leave the RAF totally reliant on Typhoon alone and without the same recce capabilities.
This must be the stupidest decision and one I am sure we will regret...

Easy Street

14th Apr 2018, 12:52

The aircraft which has been and still is the go to attack jet for well over 35 years is being retired simply on lack of funds grounds. I struggle to understand why we are doing so

One word: manpower. The RAF and Navy are both struggling with their numbers caps, and the stove-piping of single-service budgets under the Levene reforms (and the politics around Army numbers) means that the obvious solution of transferring some of the Army’s unfilled positions to the other services is not possible. The P8 and additional Typhoon squadrons promised in SDSR15 are therefore dependent upon manpower currently tied up in the Tornado Force, and so retirement of Tornado is an essential prerequisite for these important growth plans.

Mothballing Tornado wouldn’t work either as the engineers would still be needed for anti-det maintenance.

hunterboy

14th Apr 2018, 13:02

Why not set it up as a reserve squadron or two? I’m sure there would be enough volunteers/manpower to run it on the cheap? I appreciate keeping the war fighting skills of flight crew would be more difficult, though simulators would help enormously. Seems crazy to scrap all this equipment when it works fine and may be needed a year or so down the line.

Pontius Navigator

14th Apr 2018, 13:11

Russian defence ministry now claiming Syria AD downed 150 of the 120 missiles launched against the country...

Clearly at least 30 missiles hit 30 other missiles leaving 60 missiles to hit their targets. However if 75 missiles . . .

Buster15

14th Apr 2018, 13:16

One word: manpower. The RAF and Navy are both struggling with their numbers caps, and the stove-piping of single-service budgets under the Levene reforms (and the politics around Army numbers) means that the obvious solution of transferring some of the Army’s unfilled positions to the other services is not possible. The P8 and additional Typhoon squadrons promised in SDSR15 are therefore dependent upon manpower currently tied up in the Tornado Force, and so retirement of Tornado is an essential prerequisite for these important growth plans.

Mothballing Tornado wouldn’t work either as the engineers would still be needed for anti-det maintenance.

Thank you ES. Confirms my point. What a ridiculous way to run the defence of one of the richest countries. I thought that the majority of the maintenance and support of Tornado was by BAE (Attac) and RR (ROCET) for the engine. Moreover with F35 so late what about the manpower that should have been working on that programme.
As they say - shame to ruin the ship for a hapeth of tar....