Here it comes: Syria

[500N]

"Interesting concept there, work with the Russians to get a solution, but I doubt if Obama would go for that."

Nope, because he would have to share the limelight.

He also can't see that Russia might be a good party to use
as a negotiator as they have history in the country.

[Eclectic]

MANPAD attrition of regime helicopters continues + many destroyed on the ground.

-J5KIE2yd6c

Lots of government armour being destroyed by ATGMs. The rebels seem to have a plentiful supply of these.

emi4g8IRML4

On the government side there are lots of Iranians and Hezbollah who seem to be far more effective than Syrian troops.

Likewise the rebel fighting now seems to be mainly the Jihadist Al Nusra Front, who are largely foreigners. They are very effective firstly because many of them are experienced fighters from other conflicts such as Chechnya, Libya and Iraq. Secondly because their nutty religion says that their death caused by a war against fellow muslims is a very good thing. These salafists are attacking Syrian Christian civilians at random.

However bad things are now, they are going to get worse. Neither side thinks they can lose, or wants to negotiate. There is massive destruction in the country, infrastructure, buildings, military equipment and human lives. It is becoming a battlefield of rubble, like Beirut. The most effective weapons are man portable. Anything much bigger is vulnerable. Saudi, Qatar and now the USA are pouring man portable weapons into the country to keep the rebels effective. Most of these weapons end up with Al Nusra.

Israel is gearing up to act. Their air force have just finished a major exercise in Bulgaria against an integrated air defence. Israel have struck several times in Syria this year, mostly unreported. They don't want Syria to become an Iranian proxy on their doorstep.

[NutLoose]

Says it all really, one supposes these are the other lot that Haig isn't going to arm.

15-year-old boy executed for blasphemy by Syria jihadists - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10111687/15-year-old-boy-executed-for-blasphemy-by-Syria-jihadists.html)

Horrific video shows Syrian Catholic priest being 'beheaded by jihadist fighters in front of cheering crowd' | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2352251/Horrific-video-shows-Syrian-Catholic-priest-beheaded-jihadist-fighters-cheering-crowd.html?ICO=most_read_module)

Al-Qaeda calls on Syrian rebels to build anti-Western state - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10103639/Al-Qaeda-calls-on-Syrian-rebels-to-build-anti-Western-state.html)

The current encumbant suddenly starts to look not that bad.
..

[Ronald Reagan]

Western support for these rebels is disgusting. I am totally ashamed at what our leaders are doing. We keep getting told about the terrorist threat we apparently face and yet our government are supporting the terrorists!
I am sure Libya was much the same.

[Boy_From_Brazil]

A definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Why on earth do the Western politicians once again believe that supplying arms to extremists is a good idea and the weapons will never be used against us?

We should follow the lead of Turkey, Brazil & Egypt, and organise mass protests to show our respective governments how much we despise them.

As an aside, imagine the uproar in the Islamic world if we beheaded a Mullah with a kitchen knife and allowed the images to go viral.

[reynoldsno1]

Arming islamist rebels in Syria = good :confused:
Elected islamist government in Egypt = bad :confused:

[Arooba]

If the major concern is that Syria's CW's will be used against the West, then why give military support to the so called "rebels", which include the salafists, and hence destabilizing the nation to the point where they could fall into the wrong hands?
The double-speak, propaganda, and hypocrisy of the West's involvement in Syria is despicable!

[Madbob]

I see al lot of parallels between the Spanish Civil War, which to various degrees involved Germany and Italy giving their support to Franco whilst an "international brigade" took sides with the Nationalists who eventually lost convincingly, after ten of thousands were killed either in combat or in multiple atrocities, carried out by both sides.

The main point is that then the League of Nations took no part and the major powers UK, France, USA just watched or tried to enforce a weak naval blockade, or did nothing. Just like the UN et al are doing now.

The whole of the Middle East is a tinder-box and parts have already been set alight and the "fire" is now out of control now and arming the rebels (whoever they are) won't stop the fire spreading or put it out.

The traditional super powers are weaker now in relative terms then they were during the height of the cold war and the threat of intervention is no longer a deterrent in the way it perhaps once was. Emerging powers in the region such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey are not ready to support intervention by a UN-backed coalition and in any event Russia and China have their own agendas and would veto even the introduction of a no-fly zone.

In short, the West is s*****ed! I am afraid IMHO that it will get a lot worse for the people of Syria (on both sides) before the killing and destruction will stop.:ugh::ugh:

MB

[Capot]

It is by now fairly obvious that, within 30 days of the final handover to Afghanistan's security forces of all responsibility for maintaining order, the Taliban will have taken control of the whole of the country as opposed to the large swathes of it they presently control. The cabal of corrupt and ineffectual politicians nominally in charge will either join them or run.

That fact should penetrate through to Messrs Cameron, Hague et al, even through the barriers surrounding the Westminster village they inhabit, so that they think twice about initiating a third badly-thought out, extremely costly, pointless and ultimately useless intervention, with the inevitable death toll, between different sects of Muslims.

But maybe it won't.

[ORAC]

It is by now fairly obvious that, within 30 days of the final handover to Afghanistan's security forces of all responsibility for maintaining order, the Taliban will have taken control of the whole of the country as opposed to the large swathes of it they presently control. I find that incredibly unlikely.

Remember the Northern Alliance (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Alliance) was at war with the Taliban government for many many years, and it was their forces, with Allied air and SF support who defeated them.

With the arms and expertise they've built up over the years I can see no way the Taliban would make any substantial inroads into their homelands in the north. The question would be if they ended up in an uneasy national alliance or another prolonged civil war.

[Capot]

ORAC, you are quite right and I am guilty of gross over-simplification in the search for a succinct phrase.

Perhaps I should have said that within 60 days (+/- 30 days) the political situation in Afghanistan will be pretty much what it was before the Taliban were pushed out of Kabul all those years ago.

That, too is an oversimplification; what I'm really getting at is that our leaders should learn that squabbling Muslims are best left to get on with it, that BS about saving the world from Al Qaida is never credible when it emanates from a Western politician's backside, and that the intervention in Afghanistan has changed nothing.

[alemaobaiano]

The question would be if they ended up in an uneasy national alliance or another prolonged civil war.

I wouldn't necessarily disagree with that statement, but clearly there will be no place in any future Afghanistan for Karzai and his buddies.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The horrors of civil war are not unique to Syria, Al Qaeda or any side.

Innocent civilians take refuge in a church, which the State soldiers then set fire to. The soldiers accept the surrender of the civilians, then promptly strip them naked and murder them in the street.

Damascus 2013?
No, a nice little village in England, 1643.

( and it was "moste barbarouslie & contr[ar]y to the Lawes of Armes" even then)

I am unaware of any civil war having been 'civil', and I don't think a daily detailed description of atrocities helps matters. In fact, I find it gratuitous.

[ORAC]

Key White House Ally Wants 'Targeted' Strikes in Syria (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130709/DEFREG02/307090015/Key-White-House-Ally-Wants-Targeted-Strikes-Syria)

WASHINGTON — The United States should press Syria and Russia to enter into talks to end the Syrian civil war, including “targeted” strikes on Bashar al-Assad’s military forces, a White House ally said Tuesday.

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Carl Levin, an influential Obama administration ally on Capitol Hill, is calling for America and its allies to conduct “limited, targeted strikes at Assad’s apparatus of terror, including airplanes, helicopters, missiles, tanks and artillery.” Such strikes should be “coordinated with the actions of the Syrian opposition on the ground,” the Michigan Democrat said in a joint statement with fellow SASC member Angus King, I-Maine. “Such strikes could degrade Assad’s military capabilities, bring some relief to the embattled Syrian people, show we are serious,” said Levin and King............

Any US military involvement in the kinds of “targeted strikes” called for by Levin and King would come with a hefty price. As America learned with the Libya intervention, even modern-day aerial bombardments from aircraft and naval vessels are extremely costly. The cost of the Libya mission was around $1 billion, according to Pentagon data released in 2011.

Congressional sources are mixed about whether a new 2013 emergency spending measure tailored specifically for a Syrian effort would be needed. Some say it would depend on the shape and duration — as well as the level of direct US military involvement — of such a mission.

[alemaobaiano]

Libya 2.0. Well at least they aren't calling it "humanitarian" this time.

They will never get this idea through the UN after the mission creep over Libya, so the US and their associated lapdogs will have to go it alone. They also need to make up their mind quickly, recent government gains are pushing the jihadis closer to defeat.

TTFN

[Ronald Reagan]

Russian inquiry to UN: Rebels, not Army, behind Syria Aleppo sarin attack ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/syria-chemical-attack-rebels-848/)

[Ian Corrigible]

Syria naval base blast points to Israeli raid (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/09/us-syria-crisis-israel-idUSBRE9680OZ20130709)

Asked about the Latakia blasts, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon told reporters: "We have set red lines in regards to our own interests, and we keep them. There is an attack here, an explosion there, various versions - in any event, in the Middle East it is usually we who are blamed for most."

I/C

[Eclectic]

We are backing the wrong side.

Al-Qaida in Syria is most serious terrorist threat to UK, says report | World news | guardian.co.uk (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/10/al-qaida-syria-terrorist-threat)

[Rosevidney1]

We have been backing the wrong side and the conflict is spreading to Lebanon as well as threatening stability elsewhere.

[Lonewolf_50]

WASHINGTON — The United States should press Syria and Russia to enter into talks to end the Syrian civil war, including “targeted” strikes on Bashar al-Assad’s military forces, a White House ally said Tuesday. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Carl Levin, is calling for America and its allies to conduct “limited, targeted strikes at Assad’s apparatus of terror, including airplanes, helicopters, missiles, tanks and artillery.”
Senator, yer a freakin' idiot.

I'll suggest that Senator Levin's Jewish ancestry can be used as a political rhetorical point by Assad, Iran, and those fun loving folks of all sorts who believe that the recent attacks on the missile warehouse "seems to be from Israel" (who knows, at this point?) ... and thus part of a US/Zionist plot to do X evil thing in Syria for Y reason.

I'd say he's tone deaf to the politics of the region. He's also tone deaf to the politico military fusion.
Such strikes should be “coordinated with the actions of the Syrian opposition on the ground,” the Michigan Democrat said in a joint statement with fellow SASC member Angus King, I-Maine. “Such strikes could degrade Assad’s military capabilities, bring some relief to the embattled Syrian people, show we are serious,” said Levin and King.

He's reading talking points on doing a replay of Libya.

Senator, please learn this:

THERE IS NO COOKIE CUTTER! :ugh:

Would somebody please send him a clue? :mad:

[smujsmith]

With great respect to all, I have no intent to offend anyone, but, I believe that we have a situation here where 8 pints Hague, Camoron and a few other rabid warmongers have decided that we need to get involved, militarily, in a civil war that is nothing to do with our country, offers no threat to our country and we can't afford it anyway. There is now evidence, and I see no reason why we should disbelieve Russian reports more than American reports, that the people we are supporting are actually the people lobbing the chemical sh1t around. As a taxpayer and voting citizen of this country, my vote would go to keeping well away from this quagmire of international disingenuity. Not that I will get that vote. Reading this thread I believe that many posters have the happy disposition of being able to say "I told you so" when it all goes tits up and Bill and "Roly Poly" Dave look stupid.

Smudge

[thing]

+1 to the above. But Dave a rabid warmonger? I don't think he's a rabid anything; he just leans with the wind like the rest of them.

[Lonewolf_50]

Points well made, smuj, and I think no few American tax payers feel as you do. As I noted a few weeks back, supporting Jordan and their effort to aid and deal with refugees ought to be the focus of American efforts in the area for two reasons:

It's a humanitarian mess that risks becoming worse
It's a condition that can potentially destabilize Jordan, who have been a decent ally for some time
It's a good way to show that Americans care about the people in the area. That message isn't always well made. Feeding weapons to rebels who are as likely to be allies of Al Q as not seems a poor long term strategy.

The US has for a variety of "realist" reasons put up with despots of various sorts and quality for decades. Why Assad is especially unworthy to be worked with needs a bit better explanation to me, given some of the thugs we've supported over the years to advance our larger interests. :p

[Onceapilot]

I found a possible explaination for my question at post number 1.
Debacle:
An event (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/event) or enterprise (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/enterprise) that ends suddenly (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/sudden) and disastrously (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/disastrous), often with humiliating (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/humiliating) consequences (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/consequences).

OAP

[Eclectic]

Now war has openly broken out between the Free Syrian Army and the jihadist nutters such as the al Nura front.
So it is Assad Vs FSA Vs Islamic Nutters. A 3 way fight.
This means that the civil war has started before the revolution has been won!
The nutters are trying to create an extreme sharia theocracy (which Israel does not want as a neighbour!). The FSA want a pluralistic democracy (supposedly). Assad wants a brutal family dictatorship.

This makes intervention by USA, EU, Turkey and Israel vastly more likely.
Firstly because they don't want the nutters (or Assad) to win.
Secondly because they can now support the FSA with minimal danger of leakage to the nutters.

The biggest initial effort will be to diplomatically isolate the nutters. This means politely asking Saudi, Qatar etc to stop sending them weapons. The CIA will also be working on the ground to ahieve the same purpose.

Next the FSA will get lots of nice shiny Gucci kit.

Next the USA will follow their normal MO and throw drones at the problem. A few drones based in Akrotiri, Turkey and Jordan would very quickly make a huge difference. Obviously the integrated air defence system will have to be degraded so some SEAD would also be necessary.

A no fly zone is possible but would be very expensive and problematic to maintain.

Israel has already intervened more than widely publicised. Mainly to neutralise Assad's Gucci kit. The new situation makes them more likely to ramp up such activity.

[Lonewolf_50]

Now war has openly broken out between the Free Syrian Army and the jihadist nutters such as the al Nura front.
Got a source for that? I'd be interested to see a bit more.
So it is Assad Vs FSA Vs Islamic Nutters. A 3 way fight.
Good news for Assad, I think. :p
This means that the civil war has started before the revolution has been won!
It may also mean that the civil war has grown before the revolution was lost, by Assad. ;)
The nutters are trying to create an extreme sharia theocracy (which Israel does not want as a neighbour!). The FSA want a pluralistic democracy (supposedly). Assad wants a brutal family dictatorship.
Is it really that simple?
This makes intervention by USA, EU, Turkey and Israel vastly more likely. Firstly because they don't want the nutters (or Assad) to win.
Secondly because they can now support the FSA with minimal danger of leakage to the nutters.
Not so sure about that. I'd guess alliances remain fluid, on the ground.
The biggest initial effort will be to diplomatically isolate the nutters. This means politely asking Saudi, Qatar etc to stop sending them weapons. The CIA will also be working on the ground to ahieve the same purpose.
I don't think that sale will be made. Saudis and Qatar have no reason to go along with that.
Next the FSA will get lots of nice shiny Gucci kit.

Likely.
Next the USA will follow their normal MO and throw drones at the problem. A few drones based in Akrotiri, Turkey and Jordan would very quickly make a huge difference.
Might do, but maybe this time the US will do its best not to advertise that. The ability of people in Washington to keep their pie holes shut is staggeringly low. :mad: I don't think any drone strikes would target Assad or his forces. Why? The nutters are a bigger problem than he is, long term, and keeping the Russians from getting too pissed off is an important political consideration.
Obviously the integrated air defence system will have to be degraded so some SEAD would also be necessary.
Not sure you are right about that.
A no fly zone is possible but would be very expensive and problematic to maintain.
Agree, but I don't think a no fly zone will be a chosen course of action.
Israel has already intervened more than widely publicised. Mainly to neutralise Assad's Gucci kit. The new situation makes them more likely to ramp up such activity.
Probably right. They look out for themselves.

[Eclectic]

Lonewolf. Here is the simple BBC reference you want: BBC News - Key Free Syria Army rebel 'killed by Islamist group' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23283079)

More nuanced: Al-Qaeda Tries to Control Areas Liberated by Free Syrian Army - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/security/2013/07/al-qaeda-syria-armed-opposition-fsa.html)

[Lonewolf_50]

Good stuff, thanks.

Kamal Hamami was in charge of a key brigade within the Free Syrian Army (FSA). He is believed to have met members of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in the port city of Latakia to inform them of a
planned offensive in the area, before being ambushed and shot dead.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A year ago the jihadis were still operating almost underground in Syria. Now they are powerful and important players, in some places running whole towns, where they impose Sharia law.
"This is a disaster for us, a disaster for the revolution," a female
opposition activist told me. She was complaining about Islamist gunmen telling her not to smoke, to cover her head, and to leave meetings where she was the only woman.

The jihadis had grown in popularity because of corruption and infighting among the FSA. The moral clarity of the early days of the uprising has been lost. Then, people wanted to defend themselves against overwhelming and brutal force - and ultimately to replace a corrupt, one-party dictatorship. Now the revolution itself has become corrupt and, in rebel-held areas, people fear a different kind of tyranny: crime, kidnapping, gangsterism.
==
Tunisi ordered all FSA members in his area of control to declare their allegiance to ISI and to hand over their weapons. FSA intelligence has learned that ISI is sending weapons to Iraq. According to security
sources, Iran has penetrated al-Qaeda since 2004 and has used it to further Iranian goals in Iraq, and today in Syria.

An Iraqi security official said to Azzaman that al-Qaeda is doing in Syria what it did in Iraq: killing anyone who refuses to surrender his weapons and swear allegiance. ISI has killed many fighters that were fighting US troops in Iraq. The source said that ISI is helping the Syrian regime, either with or without coordination, by killing armed oppositionists in Syria.
The plot sickens ...

[Eclectic]

Confirmation that there are now three sides: Syrian rebels and al-Qaeda-linked fighters battling each other at key checkpoint in Aleppo - Washington Times (http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jul/13/syrian-rebels-and-al-qaeda-linked-fighters-battlin/)

But the extremist nutters have fallen out with each other! ISIS (The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham) and al Nusra are the two main nutter salafist groups. ISIS think al Nusra aren't extreme enough. And al Nusra think that ISIS are too extreme. Al Nusra?s Syria Strategy; Update: FSA declares war on ISIS ? 2.0: The Blogmocracy (http://www.theblogmocracy.com/2013/07/12/al-nusras-syria-strategy/)

So we are on the very verge of a four way war.

There are other factions on the ground including Hezbollah, the Kurds, Christians and Druze. All armed and fighting. Alliances are constantly shifting, depending on many factors including who has the most money/arms. Soldiers often switch groups. Large numbers of fighters have arrived from Iraq, some fighting on the Sunni side and some on the Shia side. Afghani fighters are also arriving now they have beaten the UK/USA in their own country. Messy doesn't even begin to describe what is happening.

Israel is the biggest factor. They are a regional superpower and are already engaged in a undeclared war with Iran. Assad and Hezbollah are both Iranian clients so Israel wants them both beaten. The big car bomb in a Hezbollah district in the Lebanon this week looked like Mossad was involved. Creating trouble between them and the Sunnis. And there have been repeated Israeli air strikes against Gucci kit.

In the diplomatic world it appears that the USA and Russia are getting much closer (despite Snowden). They both have a huge vested interest in acting against islamic extremists.

Interesting times.

[Lonewolf_50]

So we are on the very verge of a four way war.

It's already in progress.
Large numbers of fighters have arrived from Iraq, some fighting on the Sunni side and some on the Shia side.
Good. Payback from when it was a flow in the other direction. Assad turned a blind eye to his porous border for years ... :mad:
Israel is the biggest factor.
No, they aren't. Biggest factor is Iran, followed by Saudi and the other crowned heads in the Gulf. Follow The Money.
They are a regional superpower and are already engaged in a undeclared war with Iran.
They are no superpower. Words have meanings.
They are a regional power. (And one not to be taken lightly, of course).
The big car bomb in a Hezbollah district in the Lebanon this week looked like Mossad was involved. I'll need more than an assertion to buy that. One of many parties who don't care for Hezbollah.
And there have been repeated Israeli air strikes against Gucci kit.
Of course there have. The Israelis have been doing that for some years.
In the diplomatic world it appears that the USA and Russia are getting much closer (despite Snowden). They both have a huge vested interest in acting against islamic extremists.
I hope so, but I wonder sometimes if the meeting of the minds will ever take place. Agree with the bold part, but I wonder if our President actually lshares my sentiments.
Interesting times.
Indeed.

[Heathrow Harry]

Our old friends Sadam and Gaddafi were pretty sound on Al Qaida

their main backers were the Saudi's and the Pakistani's

sometimes doing good is the opposite of doing what is sensible..............

[Eclectic]

Interesting article. Is a no fly zone needed?: Attrition: The Destruction Of The Syrian Air Force (http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/20130618.aspx)

Losses in more detail: Syrian Conflict 2011 - 2012 (http://www.ejection-history.org.uk/CONFLICTS/SYRIA_2011_2012/Syrian_Conflict.htm)

Armour attrition is also significant.

[Lonewolf_50]

Eclectic: a point to remember is that attrition to armor and air only matters if war continues and they are needed. Otherwise, cost of doing business if Assad ends up on top when fighting stops. The loss of his aircrews is the critical issue. Regenerating them takes time and flyable aircraft, which he seems to be short of.

"According to the Syrian Revolution General Commission (SRGC) since the conflict began the Syrian Military have lost

37 helicopters
24 Mig, Sukhoi fighter and training jets.

40 aircraft were shot down, and 21 were destroyed in FSA attacks on military airport bases."

Harry:
Our old friends Sadam and Gaddafi were pretty sound on Al Qaida. Their main backers were the Saudi's and the Pakistani's. Sometimes doing good is the opposite of doing what is sensible.
The world isn't black and white, of course. Politics makes for interesting pairings. Some of the revisionist spray painting of Saddam and The Mad Colonel by recent folks with an agenda obscures the points you make.

As to Saddam "doing good" vis a vis Islamists, I'd say he was looking after his own interest, as was Muhumar. This aligns with sensivle, but not related to good, bad, or neutral.
It's what you do when you run a nation state: you look after your interests.

[Heathrow Harry]

indeed - especially when you see what happens when the other side takes over

I'm sure Mr Assad doesn't fancy a 7ft drop or a knife up the rear and is willing to fight on until he wins

[spooky3]

Syria: 'Britain Must Be Prepared For War'

Syria: 'Britain Must Be Prepared For War' (http://news.sky.com/story/1117254/syria-britain-must-be-prepared-for-war)

[Churchills Ghost]

It is disappointing (to say the least) to see how far removed British political thinking is from the wisdom necessary to address this dilemma.

The answer (if one is to get involved at all) lies in neither with backing the rebels or the current regime but in removing both, installing a provisional government (purely administrative) made up, if necessary, by foreign (even British) administrators supervising local personnel, while creating a domestic environment in which independent parties can be formed and fair elections held. But, that is a 5 year plan at the least.

My advice is that unless you are willing to do the above - stay out of it.

[Heathrow Harry]

that's right - invade - remove all the native leaders and install a British Administration - let's call it part of the Empire while we're about it :rolleyes::rolleyes:

fortunately such thinking disappeared around 1895

[Ronald Reagan]

Terror Territory: Al-Qaeda plans own state in Syria north - YouTube (http://youtu.be/9qCgyyzqD_g)

[spooky3]

If that report is true I think that things could get bad pretty quick.:eek:

[Churchills Ghost]

Originally posted by Heathrow Harry
that's right - invade - remove all the native leaders and install a British Administration - let's call it part of the Empire while we're about it

fortunately such thinking disappeared around 1895

How utterly deceptive of you.

Try reading the paragraph as a whole.

[Lonewolf_50]

Churchill's Ghost:

Under what political authority do you suggest that your course of action be undertaken? Please provide examples from any similar approach, successful, since the UN was founded.

Whomever comes in to do such in any country, as a foreigner, will immediately accrue resistance due to (among other things) not being local. I find your suggestion at odds with the past sixty years of global geopolitical history.

EDIT:

On the other hand, the "we'll help you until we won't" theme in American foreign policy seems to be a "it doesn't work" forumula.

David Ignatius did a recent piece that summarizes the frustrations of various rebels/freedom fighters, and the expected help from America that doesn't materialize. He compares it to jilted lovers in Victorian literary tropes.
The story playing out now in Syria is so familiar that it's almost a
leitmotif of U.S. foreign policy. Washington wants to see a change of government so it encourages local rebels to rise up. Once these rebels are on the barricades, policymakers often get cold feet, realizing that they lack public support.

This process happened in the Hungarian Revolution of 1956, the Bay of
Pigs in 1961, the Prague Spring of 1968, the contras program in Nicaragua in 1984. It happened in Lebanon, Laos, southern Iraq . . . make your own list.

At the end of 19th-century novels, the seducer who abandons his flirtation
usually gets what he deserves: He is shamed and ultimately ruined, while
virtuous and steadfast characters are rewarded. But it doesn't happen that way in foreign policy.

[Heathrow Harry]

"Try reading the paragraph as a whole."

i did and I have and I'm with Lone wolf here

You just can't remove the locals and replace them with a foreign administration - Afghanistan again........

[Churchills Ghost]

For the benefit for Heathrow Harry, Lonewolf and anyone else unable to grasp my point, I am saying that backing one tide or the other in a situation such as this is pointless and likely to cause severe damage to the country (Syria).

As in many countries where dictatorial regimes have been in power, Syria's senior government figures are polarised (politically) and must therefore be replaced by a caretaker government which can run the 'machine' of government until just elections can be held.

Allowing Syrians to order government in the short-term causes problems because whoever does this will be opposed by various sections from among their society. If there has to be a 'bad' guy then it is better than 'foreigners' occupy this place because this lends towards national unity in that it is better for domestic resentment be focused towards an 'external' entity than a domestic one. Efficient short-term administration of their government will in any case reduce resentment.

Such an interim government would be an ideal task for the UN, comprised of representatives from member nations but, getting members to agree on something like this, well, it hardly warrants further comment. And yet, if you are to enforce a regime change then appointing a 'neutral' interim government is vital to the maintenance of ongoing affairs while preparing for fair elections.

The business of elections would, I suggest, benefit from a two-step process in which a referendum is held to determine the broad priorities (in terms of policy) that their society wishes to see, followed by the elections themselves, once enabling equal representational opportunities among the prospective parties has been achieved (no mean feat).

Because the UN lack the ability to agree on such decisive measures and because their own bureaucracy is so sluggish, sometimes even non-responsive, it would take a nation 'with balls' to step in and assert such clear control, that's for sure.

However, if the genuinely desired outcome is that of liberating the people of Syria, of sustaining an efficient interim government which delivers impartial public services, then what I suggest is an answer to consider.

I find your suggestion at odds with the past sixty years of global geopolitical history.

I sincerely hope so. Otherwise I should be offering absolutely nothing new.

In any case, I should worry not about it.

Britain has no more leaders left with sufficient wisdom and confidence to be able to tackle any situation, whether large or small, including this one.

[Lonewolf_50]

Your suggestion is based on something which doesn't work, or maybe more correctly, hasn't been shown to work yet for some very predictable reasons.

Thanks for taking the time to flesh it out. Coming in from the top down to take charge of a country (and just what are you doing with all of those people in the government when you do remove them ... ???) has the problem of being seen as a foreign invader and taking on the added problem of locals not believing in any altruistic motive -- however much professed by outsiders.

UN might be seen as legit, or it might not, depending on which locals one is referring to.

Cheers.

[Eclectic]

With this level of MANPAD usage surely Syria is becoming a no fly zone:

http://img836.imageshack.us/img836/9453/2n1u.jpg

Video of weapon delivery:

gHyq1m88qO0

[Roland Pulfrew]

Has anyone seen any footage of Syrian Air Force/Army assets using flares to counter SAMs? Are their aircraft fitted with chaff/flare systems? Do they have them but have run out of reloads? Are they trained in counter SAM TTPs?

Given that these SAMs appear to be Russian types and the Syrian mil use mainly Russian kit you might have thought they knew how to counter SAMs. I haven't seen any footage of their FJs and helis using flares at all.

[dctyke]

Well it wont matter what happens now for at least two weeks. With the royal birth imminent I expect all the war reporters will have gone on block leave! It's wall to wall on sky this morning with cutting edge stories like 'what is is like to have a baby' and 'baby names'..... Like they say, good time to sneak out bad news :rolleyes:

[TEEEJ]

See following, Roland.

Su-24

4j7BZUv47ws&feature=related

Su-22

epOuRuf2oo0&feature=related

MiG-23BN

mfnii-4-OxY&feature=related

MiG-21

KJhPISgsh5M&feature=related

Mi-24/25

mBlhothK4D4&feature=related

[Lonewolf_50]

About chaffe and flares that may or may not be on Assad's aircraft:

If you don't have an auto missile warning system (inbound) on your helicopter, you may not see the puff of smoke that the hand held SAM makes when launched, and thus may not deploy chaffe / flares due to not having the trigger info t needed o do so.

I'll go no further than that.

[downsizer]

Given that these SAMs appear to be Russian types and the Syrian mil use mainly Russian kit you might have thought they knew how to counter SAMs.

You'd think so, but even the Russians struggled to counter their own kit, the Georgians shot down several russian bombers using russian designed AD kit that they couldn't counter....

[Eclectic]

Attrition seems to have created a de-facto no fly zone.
Here is a rebel convoy yesterday which would make a juicy target to any air assets.

i5w13s3eCRI

And to show what is happening on the ground this is a Sunni convoy that has given up on fighting the government in Homs so that they can go and fight the Kurds.

[Lonewolf_50]

And to show what is happening on the ground this is a Sunni convoy that has given up on fighting the government in Homs so that they can go and fight the Kurds.
Given a voice in policy decisions, which I of course don't have, I'd suggest to the US government that support to the Kurds is in order. Fun with our dear NATO ally Turkey over that, I am sure ... but that's what I'd recommend.

[Eclectic]

I spoke too soon. Here some government helicopters pretty much destroy an ISIS (extremist islam) convoy (probably the same one in the previous video).
You can see an oil drum bomb in the helicopter. The sort they also drop on bread queues.

Video: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=218859071598590

[Eclectic]

Now it is not just MANPADs. The rebels captured this SA-8 Gecko;

B_OWpARxkog

Then (allegedly) used it (maybe yesterday):

ty7TXjrbjas

[Lonewolf_50]

I wonder where they got the training on the SA-8. Not exactly an off the shelf Nintendo style piece of kit. :cool:

[dazdaz1]

I would imagine they just read the instruction book in the glove compartment. Having said that, they do seem to shout a lot.

Daz

[Eclectic]

The rebels include large numbers of Syrian army defectors. So they should be able to operate any Syrian army kit they capture.

[Lonewolf_50]

Latest news is that some of the more Islamist rebels captured over fifty Syrian Army soldiers ... and then executed them. Fifty - one is the number reported. Tells you who these scumbags really are, eh? :mad:

[500N]

That isn't going to endear them to the rest of the world.

[Not_a_boffin]

That isn't going to endear them to the rest of the world.

Not sure their GiveAF8ckOMeter is even twitching........

[500N]

I am sure it isn't !

I actually meant all the others who are jumping up and down
to support them not liking it.

[Eclectic]

Homs today. This happened on the government side. How did the rebels do this?

IuXPmpNWkkM


Also rebel AAA

Q6tHwek701Q

[Lonewolf_50]

I don't understand what happened in the first video. What blew up?

The second looks like a standard ZSU-23 type tracked AAA rig.

Old reliable, as it were.

[500N]

The first video looks very petroleum like.


Petrol storage tank or something where the blast is directed upwards and so forming the mushroom ?

[500N]

I stand corrected

It was a Gov't arms dump hit by a rocket.

[Lonewolf_50]

To whomever the rocketeer was: nice shot! :ok:

[Eclectic]

Wouldn't want to be part of a government tank crew, the attrition rate is very high. And it is about to get higher. The rebels have captured a warehouse full of Konkurs, Kornet, Fagot and Milan.
This is a different form of warfare. Light infantry using lots and lots of tube launched artillery. Mortars, rockets, RPGs, missiles. The big explosion in the video above was caused by a rebel Grad landing on a government arms depot.
The rebels have factories making some of their tube artillery and the ammunition for it.

Warehouse:

WwX12wdHcqY

[Eclectic]

Menagh air force base near Aleppo has been surrounded by the rebels since January. It is a classic siege. The rebels have thrown lots of mortars, ATGMs and rockets at it. Killing the tanks there one by one.
???? ??? - ????? ????? ?????? ????? ?????? ?? ??? ?????? ????????? ?? ? on Vimeo

The government have been re-supplying by airdrop (the runway is not usable, being under constant fire) and have been doing repeated air strikes against the surrounding rebels, at least 6 this morning, for instance.

3nLX1pQPj38

Now the rebels made the mother of all car bombs. They added lots of extra armour to a BMP armoured personnel carrier, put 6 tons of high explosives in it then drove it into the centre of the base and set it off.

Pq-DRLXn1Eg

BMP setting off on mission:

69MFpnDlEAE

The explosion:

TYHX6-idqvI


Then they sent in the infantry:

aVJu5fAF8TQ

There are so many cameras in the conflict and they upload videos so quickly that it is possible to follow events in near real time.

[Lonewolf_50]

There are so many cameras in the conflict and they upload videos so quickly that it is possible to follow events in near real time.
No, it isn't, but it is a way to get a look see at a few things that have gone on.

That large car/BMP bomb was an ingenious little move. :ok:

[Eclectic]

This video is supposedly a successful MANPAD shot at a fast jet:

PEStaEAo34Y

[500N]

"Then they sent in the infantry:"

Would n't like to have been in front of that lot,
wildly firing from the mound !

[Lonewolf_50]

As regards the MANPAD and what appears to be a successful engagement, and the good parachute with a pilot floating to earth ...

1. Allah is indeed akhbar, in that he guided the hands of the parariggers in the squadron to get that kit working correctly. :ok:

2. How do you say "welcome to the caterpiller club" in Arabic? :cool:

[spooky3]

Syria: Hundreds Killed In 'Gas Attack' (http://news.sky.com/story/1131320/syria-hundreds-killed-in-gas-attack)

[Lonewolf_50]

Seems to be the same allegation from months ago.

How credible?

Investigators are finally getting a chance to get more info. I wonder what they'll find.

[500N]

Interesting looking at the photos.

Lots of kids as well and not much in the way of blood.

OK, anything could have been cleaned up but that number
at the one time ?

[Eclectic]

Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Yaalon said that the Syrian government had used chemical weapons in Damascus today. A fairly credible confirmation.

Eye witness said chemical missiles were launched from the Qassioun mountain ridge. The positions of the government 4th division.

The word is that it was Sarin.

[500N]

Jesus, if we have a Gov't throwing Sarin gas around like this
it does not look good.

Takes it to a whole new level.

[Lonewolf_50]

How do you know it was a chem missile unless you were where it hit?
How do you know it was Sarin without a test kit?
How do you know it wasn't White Phosphorous and the eyewitness is an idiot?
How do you know ...

When an "eyewitness" is quoted, my question is "who is this eyewitness and does he or she actually know anything?" It really, really depends on the eyewitness in question.

Be skeptical.
Could be that a gas attack was launched. But leaping to conclusions has been done before ...

[500N]

The other question is, what does Israel have to gain by
"confirming" that it was a chemical attack ?

I don't know the politics of the region well enough
to answer that.

[Ronald Reagan]

False flag.

Russia suggests Syria ?chemical attack? was ?planned provocation? by rebels ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/russia-syria-chemical-attack-801/)

[satsuma]

Dreadful pictures, both above and on Newsnight right now. What is wrong with this world of ours? :sad:

[smujsmith]

I just ask why, someone who has just said hello to a UN chemical weapons inspection team, would start lobbing such stuff about. Whatever Assad is, he is not an idiot and the opposition, so loved by our foreign secretary, have access to this kit as well. Unlike the west (us if you like) it seems that Muslim opposition type people place little value on the sanctity of human life, in fact they seem to glory in the martyrdom that they believe gives them some "special treatment". All in all finding out who lobbed the nasty stuff will take a lot of investigation, no doubt many (Hague for example) will use it to ramp up militant fervour for action. I just hope that, for once, we all stand back and wait for the truth to come out.

Smudge

[Eclectic]

Alleged gas warhead: https://twitter.com/TheMoeDee/status/370066589359427584/photo/1

Alleged video of chemical rocket:

_gLsKrB2PV8

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Really dreadful news, showing the true horrors of chemical attack.

I was really angered and embarrased this morning to see Hague already blaming the Syrian government for the attack, without any conclusive proof. This guy is a total disaster and seems bent on bringing the UK into the conflict, to support the rebel extremists.

I suggest that rogue elements in the opposition have far more to gain by killing innocents in this manner than the Assad regime.

[500N]

I thought the US were supposed to be "keeping an eye" on Syria's Chemical weapons to make sure no one used them ?

Fat lot of good that did.


I also see in the NY Times (might have been the Washington Post)
that someone in a column is calling for the US to retaliate if it is
found that Chemical weapons have been used :rolleyes:

Like the US really wants to get involved in another war that they would
not win ?

[NutLoose]

There is a lot of blaming Assad going on in all the news, though I have yet to see anything that actually 100% confirms he is the perpetrator.

Nasty nasty nasty, whoever is to blame one hopes they die a slow death.

[Tashengurt]

It seems that everyone except those in various governments around the world are questioning why the Syrian government would condone the use of chemical weapons just as the UN team arrives. Do we really know who we're backing here? We really, really need to get this one right. :confused:

[500N]

Tash

That is wishful thinking if ever I saw it after the clusters the UN / US / Coalition have made of things in the last 10+ years.

This is especially so when you have Russia on one side who will do what
they want to do and have far more at stake than everyone else.

[Tashengurt]

500N,

True enough that our track record isn't fabulous. Even more reason why we need to know who we're backing in this one and why. I haven't heard a convincing argument from anyone yet.

[500N]

Tash

I think the key words in your post below this on are

"and why"


Why should or do we need to back someone in this essentially
internal struggle ?


If Syria does something no one wants, Israel seems to sort it out with a
few bombs etc and with Russia on the other side, why get involved AT ALL ?

[air pig]

In my humble opinion, this is one to stay out and keep out, for a starter we do not have the resources either in equipment or manpower. The options for intervention really are only by air, but if Turkey will not allow their airfields to be used and the same with Greece including Cyprus (Akrotiri) and Jordan, what next?

SLCMs, shortest route across Israel, not a hope, without causing an awful lot of problems all round, same goes for aircraft, in fact the ISADF would look upon this as a 'target rich environment'.

Both sides are going to indulge in slaughter on both sides, with their mutual supporters from Iran Russia and the Gulf States providing all the resources they need.

Would we want to be in an area where the reported release of CBRN has happened and if true may happen again. Remember mask in 9.

[ORAC]

SLCMs, shortest route across Israel Syria has a coastline and the next shortest route is across Lebanon which wouldn't be capable of interfering.

[air pig]

Yes very narrow, and as Lebanon is a Hezboullah stronghold allied to Iran who want Assad to survive, that could cause trouble and even provide MANPADS. If you have SLCMs coasting in over Syrian/Lebenon coastline the ISDAF are going to get very twitchy about their eventual destination, in particular if you are targeting CBRN facilities. As you are well aware SLCMs are only really usable against fixed targets and with no real time data from assets such as E8 Sentinal E3D etc you have a problem, the U2 may provide this data but if permission to use Akrotiri is withdrawn then where do you deploy from?

With the continued draw down of US forces and reduction in combat readiness, could the USAF deploy forces in a short period of time in particular tanker ISAR C4int and strike capacity.

[ORAC]

Without in any way implying we should get involved, which I definitely don't....

...with no real time data from assets such as E8 Sentinal E3D etc you have a problem, the U2 may provide this data but if permission to use Akrotiri is withdrawn then where do you deploy from? We have both E-3D and Sentinel R1/ASTOR which would allow targeting. We should also have enough Typhoon to defend them, at least long enough to get data then retrograde. Who do you imagine can withdraw permission for the RAF to operate out of Akrotiri?

[Ronald Reagan]

UN: Investigation needed into Syria chemical attack report ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/unsc-chemical-investigation-syria-814/)

[Eclectic]

Our military options.
Firstly we shouldn't.
But if the poison gas outrage is such that our political masters nudge us into involvement there is a way.
People talk about a no fly zone. Enforced with CAPs and SEAD.
But there is another way. Simply take out their (already depleted) air assets on the ground.
We (with our allies) have the intelligence assets to know where all their helicopters and fighter jets are. Then at 3AM one morning we could use stand off weapons and drones to neutralise them all.
Then we are seen to do something and we create a more level playing field on the ground. With no lives risked.
In a similar fashion we could degrade what is left of their armour. And then maybe selected strikes against the government C4ISTAR.
Then let the various opposing forces fight it out on the ground.

What is very pertinent recently is that the rebels have been putting a lot of effort to fight the Kurds in the north instead of fighting the government. Ethnic cleansing. They want a Sunni caliphate and everything else must be removed. In conquered territory they are enforcing strict sharia, which is a big shock to citizens used to a secular regime.

[Ronald Reagan]

Ramp Up to Syrian Invasion Hits DEFCON 3 - YouTube (http://youtu.be/ezEP33y1RvA)

[air pig]

We have both E-3D and Sentinel R1/ASTOR which would allow targeting. We should also have enough Typhoon to defend them, at least long enough to get data then retrograde. Who do you imagine can withdraw permission for the RAF to operate out of Akrotiri?

You are making many assumptions that we can forward deploy those assets without political cover from the UN, and the Russians and China will at present will veto any action in the Security Council. Also we do not have the assets to cover a 24 hour week long surveillance system. We lack tankers, C4INT and the number of Typhoons required to provide force protection. On the point of tankers we only have one VC 10 left, a few Voyagers, no strategic reconnaissance in the form of Airseeeker/Nimrod and Tristars/C 17s are required for the airbridge to Afghanistan.

[NutLoose]

Another one we don't need to be sticking our nose in, end game if we do is we leave a bunch in charge that will end up hating us..

Ideally a nice carrier full of fixed wing assets of the coast is what's needed.... ohh hang on, we got rid of that :(

[Roland Pulfrew]

Then we are seen to do something and we create a more level playing field on the ground. With no lives risked.


Yep. We could be seen to be prolonging a war and creating even greater bloodshed - a fight to the end, with small arms, grenades and heavy calibre weapons, with lots of lives risked (only not our own)!!

The "West" have simply backed the wrong side on this, as we did in Egypt, in Libya and, arguably, in Iraq.

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Eclectic

Are you William Hague's advisor?

[Lonewolf_50]

Then we are seen to do something and we create a more level playing field on the ground. With no lives risked.
Incorrect, sir. If you create a "more level playing field" you will see a longer and bloodier civil war.

Nut LooseIdeally a nice carrier full of fixed wing assets of the coast is what's needed.... ohh hang on, we got rid of that http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/sowee.gif

But we didn't. However, I don't agree with that no fly zone, interfere approach that I saw posted above. Beyond Russia and China blocking it at UNSC, it too would create too much relief for too many factions who we don't want to see win.

Another point I'd like to make:
"Majority Rule" (mostly Shi'ite) in Iraq has seen a serious and sustained level of non majority (mostly Sunni) civil strife and violence.
Majority rule in Syria (Sunni in this case) would likely see something similar from the minorities, and also a larger refugee flow than is currently being seen.

[bcgallacher]

Anybody of reasonable intelligence who has spent a year or two in in any Middle Eastern country will have come to the conclusion that it is impossible to have any kind of democratic rule in such places.I was told 'If you dont have your foot on his neck he will have his foot on yours' is the local philosophy. Acceptance of majority rule is not part of Arabic culture. If we become involved in any military way in Syria our Foreign Secretary is even more stupid than I thought.Any regime that replaces the present one will be no different- only the names will change -see Egypt,Libya etc. It is not the politics,it is the culture which will take generations to change. LET THE BUGGERS GET ON WITH IT - IF THEY ARE KILLING EACH OTHER THEY ARE NOT BOTHERING US. Sell them all the arms they want then at least we have some benefit for our trouble. Cynical? No,practical.

[Roland Pulfrew]

Eclectic

Are you William Hague's advisor?

I was beginning to wonder whether Eclectic was an FSA propagandist though :E

[TEEEJ]

Ronald,

Alex Jones. Seriously? The guy is a raving loony. He should stick to pointing at the sky and ranting about chemtrails. :ugh:

[air pig]

Anybody of reasonable intelligence who has spent a year or two in in any Middle Eastern country will have come to the conclusion that it is impossible to have any kind of democratic rule in such places.I was told 'If you dont have your foot on his neck he will have his foot on yours' is the local philosophy. Acceptance of majority rule is not part of Arabic culture. If we become involved in any military way in Syria our Foreign Secretary is even more stupid than I thought.Any regime that replaces the present one will be no different- only the names will change -see Egypt,Libya etc. It is not the politics,it is the culture which will take generations to change. LET THE BUGGERS GET ON WITH IT - IF THEY ARE KILLING EACH OTHER THEY ARE NOT BOTHERING US. Sell them all the arms they want then at least we have some benefit for our trouble. Cynical? No,practical.

My sentiments totally, leave them to it and see who survives at the end.

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Roland P

You are spot-on. To be absolutely frank, it would not surprise me at all if the FSA are Hague's advisors!

For God's sake (whichever one you believe in), let's keep out of this worsening mess.

[con-pilot]

LET THE BUGGERS GET ON WITH IT - IF THEY ARE KILLING EACH OTHER THEY ARE NOT BOTHERING US

Best statement I've seen anywhere on what to do about Syria. :ok:

[Ronald Reagan]

» Expert: Chemical Weapons Victim Footage Appears ?Set-Up? Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind! (http://www.infowars.com/expert-chemical-weapons-victim-footage-appears-set-up/)

[air pig]

Quote:
LET THE BUGGERS GET ON WITH IT - IF THEY ARE KILLING EACH OTHER THEY ARE NOT BOTHERING US
Best statement I've seen anywhere on what to do about Syria.

Totally agree with that.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Even better: they don't want us involved - happy with that!

[NutLoose]

Eclectic

Are you William Hague's advisor?



I believe Hague uses a weegie board for advice, mans a buffoon.

Totally agree with the let them fight it out scenario, we should have done that in several other countries as well.

[TEEEJ]

Ronald,
Catch a grip will you! You might as well be posting links from David Icke. His analysis of anything military is farcical. Take a look Alex Jones 'analysis' of a 'shadow government plane'. He and his military experts can't even get the type correct let alone comprehend that it was in the circuit for the airport.

02-ygL1GPF8

[Ronald Reagan]

This whole little thing in Syria was probably begun by the west in the first place. According to the former French foreign minister it was!
France's Former Foreign Minister: UK Government Prepared War in Syria Two Years Before 2011 Protests - YouTube (http://youtu.be/Kz-s2AAh06I)

[Ronald Reagan]

TEEEJ, just because they are totally wrong about some things does not mean they are wrong about everything. Mainstream media often makes mistakes. Amongst the rubbish stories of Jones site are really good ones, often hard to find in the mainstream. The world is in urgent need of people like Jones as well as networks like RT to find out what is really going on. One just cannot rely on BBC, SKY, FOX and CNN which these days are just propaganda.

[bcgallacher]

Does it really come as a surprise that the USA is so screwed up politically that a TV station would produce a programme using a housewife and a 'retired military man' who was barely capable of stringing two words together? I cannot imagine anybody taking this seriously.As for talking about Obama and other 'leftists' - the average American has no idea what the word socialist or being of left wing persuasion actually means

[Ronald Reagan]

Comfort for Chaos: 'Al-Qaeda metastasize in Mid-East due to US War on Terror' - YouTube (http://youtu.be/JWC0zZCuMFI)

[spooky3]

Hague: Syria Massacre 'Was A Chemical Attack' (http://news.sky.com/story/1132378/hague-syria-massacre-was-a-chemical-attack)

[Lonewolf_50]

Russia Urges Syria To Allow UN 'Chemical' Probe (http://news.sky.com/story/1131742/russia-urges-syria-to-allow-un-chemical-probe)

This is good news, or it's a smoke screen. Not sure which, but I hope the former.

[AR1]

But note on the latest revelations about the use of chemicals in Syria that Hagues response was about bringing the perpatrators to justice 'One day' - That seems to me a clear message that we are backing away from any intervention.

And its Ouija not weegie. :ok:

[satsuma]

And its Ouija not weegie

Those in glass houses...

[Lonewolf_50]

I will quote Dan Dierdorf, much beloved lineman turned sports broadcaster on Monday Night Football:

"Let 'em play!"

Maybe this bloodletting is cathartic, and is needed.
Maybe not.

[Tashengurt]

Quote:

And its Ouija not weegie

Those in glass houses...

How do you make a weegie board? Take away his flick knife.


Sorry.


Posted from Pprune.org App for Android

[satsuma]

Except there's not much blood in a chemical attack which results in the lifeless bodies of children are being lined up in a morgue. Imagine for just one second what a Sarin attack would be like in your Texas town and then repeat back the words, "Let 'em play!". In what way did those youngsters deserve such a horrific death?

[Eclectic]

Looks like my boss wants to do something.

BBC:: SYRIA UNREST:UK Foreign Secretary William Hague says civilised world cannot ignore Syria chemical attack allegations

[Cows getting bigger]

I've got a spare unopened sachet of Fuller's Earth if anyone wants it.

[bcgallacher]

The civilised world can ignore the situation in Syria or else some time down the line try to explain why the people we 'helped' are now slaughtering those of the old regime that survive the air attacks and cruise missiles.Arabs are capable of great cruelty to their enemies - its part of the culture. It is not an islamic thing as I have lived in islamic countries where this vicious attitude was non existent - Malaysia for instance.

[smujsmith]

bcgallacher,

Spot on with that comment, its a shame that the people screaming to "get in there", have probably never seen the real results of our "efforts to help democracy", and I include Hague in that. Posturing blowhard that he is, as a Yorkshireman, common sense will prevail I hope. Not holding my breath though.

Smudge

[RileyDove]

The 'outrage' at the events in Syria is being carefully managed to lower the public's expectations! View Obama and his 'red line' - its undoubtedly been crossed -maybe even danced on but the political retteric about the consequences of Syria doing that looks now very weak.
The war on the ground is already being fought with Western influence - if the political masters have any sense they will confine their efforts to intervention by cash and supplies only!

[henra]

With the continued draw down of US forces and reduction in combat readiness, could the USAF deploy forces in a short period of time in particular tanker ISAR C4int and strike capacity.

The reason that the 'West' should absolutely stay out of this is not for military reasons. These can all be solved somehow.
The real reason to stay out of this is because there simply is no 'right' side to support. You replace one problem with a probably even bigger problem.

Also this alleged Chemical attack: Is there any proof it was launched by the Assad regime?
Why should they? To convince the US or someone else to get involved?:confused:
Doesn't sound like a brilliant idea. :=
With Chemical weapons you will most severly hit the Civillians since Soldiers/Militias tend to be better equipped and trained to deal with that. So the pure military benefit of a chemical attack on a City is usually quite limited.

[Lonewolf_50]

Except there's not much blood in a chemical attack which results in the lifeless bodies of children are being lined up in a morgue. Imagine for just one second what a Sarin attack would be like in your Texas town and then repeat back the words, "Let 'em play!". In what way did those youngsters deserve such a horrific death?
Deserve's got nothing to do with it, my boy. That country has been in a civil war for over two years. Civil wars are nasty business, above average in nasty as wars go. Whomever chose to gas them didn't give a flying fart what those youngsters did or didn't do, and those feckwits were their fellow countrymen. If somebody tried a Sarin attack on a town near here, I'd be happy to join the posse that hunts them down and kills them. Does that answer your stupid question?

If we have a civil war here, I'd expect any number of foreigners to feel about the same:

when you Americans get tired of killing each other, let us know. We'll plan our vacations elsewhere.

For henra:
The reason that the 'West' should absolutely stay out of this is not for military reasons. These can all be solved somehow. The real reason to stay out of this is because there simply is no 'right' side to support. You replace one problem with a probably even bigger problem.

Also this alleged Chemical attack:
Is there any proof it was launched by the Assad regime?
Why should they? To convince the US or someone else to get involved?Doesn't sound like a brilliant idea.

With Chemical weapons you will most severly hit the Civillians since
Soldiers/Militias tend to be better equipped and trained to deal with that. So the pure military benefit of a chemical attack on a City is usually quite
limited.
Well said, sir! Except for this: the utility of a chemical attack, beyond killing some people, includes the element of sowing fear and terror. Fear is a reasonable response to chemical attacks, since they are extremely nasty and lethal.

[NutLoose]

The downside I can see is Assad is known quantity that keeps his country in check, all be it secretive, one wonders if he is deposed how the stability of the region will swing.

There is no getting around the fact that somewhere along the line the West or Russia or the late USSR is arming them, all be it from aid given to other countries in the past, or to Syria in itself..

The west needs to learn to stand back and let them get on with it, then talk with whoever comes out as winners, all we have done in the past is destabilised countries, go back a short while and you could have possible wandered around parts of Iraq, Libya etc free from worry that you would be killed, try that now. Fine we went in with the best of intentions and stuck our nose in where it didn't belong, but in all honesty what has it got us, hideous debt and a Government driven fear of terror in the UK that simply allows them to snoop on the populace under that pretext.

In my eyes we lost the war the day we got paranoid about safety at home and started to respond to it in the way we have, terrorists one, UK PLC zero.

[VinRouge]

Another ****hole, very little in the way of resources. Not our problem.

[satsuma]

Lonewolf 50

Your choice of words is borderline inhuman given the atrocious savagery that has recently been witnessed. I am, however, sure that you sleep soundly and safely in your comfortable bed.

[tartare]

Looks like it's finally time for Assad to get some Tomahawk lovin (Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian)'.
Good luck boys and girls - get some.
At the risk of sounding like a chickenhawk - previous posters who say it aint our problem need to have another look at the pictures of poison gassed kids.
Tally ho...

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Tartare

What have you been smoking?

Where is the conclusive proof that Assad's forces were responsible for this attack?
Where was the conclusive proof that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass-destruction?

Yet another cluster xxxx .....!

[tartare]

Aint been smokin' nothing.
It's Bashir who's gonna be smoking. ;)
More detail here. (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/24/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE97K0EL20130824)
Seems they're getting ready should Obama decide to whack him and his brave, manly friends.

[henra]

At the risk of sounding like a chickenhawk - previous posters who say it aint our problem need to have another look at the pictures of poison gassed kids.


And what if they were gassed by one of the various rebel groups?!
Do you really believe the West getting involved in this mess will help reduce the suffering in that civil war?
If you do please expand.
What is the plan once Assad has been thrown out?
Please let us not start another war without the slightest cue what to do afterwards with the Country. This has now been tried a number of times and we are still waiting for the first instance where it works. And there is a reason for it:
In this Region there is an everlasting rivalry between the two big Muslim groups, Sunnis and Shi'ites. You won't settle that with any amount of Tomahawks. They have to get tired and fed up of fighting it out themselves before any help from the outside can lead to positive results.

[tartare]

Gassed by one of the rebel groups.
Guys - what have you all been smoking?
Occams Razor? The simplest explanation is probably the correct one?
You've all been watching too many political thrillers.
It sure as hell looks like the Syrian Govt did it - for multiple reasons.
Let me explain my viewpoint.
Here in Oz we are at the height of a very close election campaign.
Yet the Prime Minister has abandoned all of that and headed straight back to Canberra for an urgent UN briefing - which only means one thing.
The US is probably going to act.
And why?
Because Obama (who I actually think is a pretty good president - and quite hawkish too) is going to actually do something.
And why?
Probably because that intel apparatus that other pants wetting bleaters on this forum whine about - has come up with some proof.
There are times to debate - and there are times to act.
And personally boys - when I see that number of dead bodies as a result of poison gas - its war time.
None of you know how this will ultimately play out if Assad is removed.
It may not necessarily be a disaster.
And none of you have any insight into the planning and scenario modelling that may have been done if that were to happen - and you can bet your bottom dollar it will have been.
So as far as I'm concerned - bring it on.
There are times to fight - and this is one of them.
Doing nothing is much, much worse.
Just my two cents worth - so flame away.

[fergineer]

Intel come up with facts where have I heard that before and look what we found........Nothing

[Eclectic]

The precedent here is Kosovo.
In 1999 NATO went in without UN approval on the basis of humanitarian needs and in the face of very strong Russian opposition.
A ten week intervention involving 1,000 NATO aircraft flying 38,000 missions.

Article: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/24/world/air-war-in-kosovo-seen-as-precedent-in-possible-response-to-syria-chemical-attack.html?hp&_r=0

[henra]

Probably because that intel apparatus that other pants wetting bleaters on this forum whine about - has come up with some proof.


You mean like the proof they had of WMD in Iraq ? :}

[Ronald Reagan]

Its none of our business what happens in Syria. I remain to be convinced Assad even did this. It could be a false flag, something to create a justification for western intervention.

Until this trouble kicked off Syria had been a stable and safe nation. If Assad is removed the place will fracture apart, it will be an open land for various extremist groups to operate. What happens to all the minority groups then?

Anyone who backs military intervention in Syria is a someone who has failed to see the disasters we have caused in Iraq and Libya. Iraq was probably better under Saddam and Libya under Gaddafi. Even Afghanistan which had more justification has not gone well, once we leave it will return to how it was before.

But we have to ask ourselves who do we think we are? What right do we have to get involved? Its none of our business and we have no right to get involved.

[ORAC]

The big players here are Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Turkey because of their Sunni solidarity with the rebels and the refugee crisis; Saudi for solidarity and to limit Iran's influence in the region. Saudi watched what happened in Egypt and backed the army to take control, they may do the same in Syria if the can get the army to remove Assad.

Did I say Turkey? (http://www.worldpress.org/link.cfm?http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/index.php)

Turkish President Gül calls on world to ‘walk the walk’ in Syria

President Abdullah Gül says the international community should take concrete steps to prevent further bloodshed in Syria, while Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan slams the UN for its inaction, proposing an ‘alternative’


Underlining the severity of the Syrian civil war, President Abdullah Gül has said there are “no words left to say” over the conflict in the neighboring country, stressing that it is now time to take concrete steps.

“The brutal massacre of over 1,000 people with chemical weapons is a huge crime against humanity,” Gül said Aug. 23 in Istanbul, while making a veiled criticism of the United Nations Security Council for its failure to stop the bloodshed. In a similar criticism of the world body, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently suggested the formation of an alternative U.N.

“Those who committed these massacres will be remembered by a curse in history and they will be held to account before international law,” Gül said, while calling for U.N. experts to be granted immediate access to the site to investigate claims that an alleged gas attack near Damascus on Aug. 21 left over 1,000 people dead, a claim denied by the al-Assad regime.

Harrowing footage distributed by activists showing unconscious children, people foaming at the mouth, and doctors apparently giving them oxygen to help them breathe, has triggered revulsion around the world.

“There are no words left to say. It is time to take concrete steps. The cost of parrying these incidents by diplomatic maneuvers and tricks in the U.N. Security Council and extending over a period of time will be huge. It would destroy the U.N. system and conscience of humanity as well. Therefore, the time has come to take a very concrete step,” Gül said.

[air pig]

Its none of our business what happens in Syria. I remain to be convinced Assad even did this. It could be a false flag, something to create a justification for western intervention.

Until this trouble kicked off Syria had been a stable and safe nation. If Assad is removed the place will fracture apart, it will be an open land for various extremist groups to operate. What happens to all the minority groups then?

Anyone who backs military intervention in Syria is a someone who has failed to see the disasters we have caused in Iraq and Libya. Iraq was probably better under Saddam and Libya under Gaddafi. Even Afghanistan which had more justification has not gone well, once we leave it will return to how it was before.

But we have to ask ourselves who do we think we are? What right do we have to get involved? Its none of our business and we have no right to get involved.

I must agree, unfortunately.

[ORAC]

Interesting.........

Iran's Rouhani says chemical weapons killed people in Syria (http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/08/24/syria-crisis-iran-idINL6N0GP02C20130824)

Aug 24 (Reuters) - Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Saturday acknowledged for the first time chemical weapons had killed people in ally Syria and called for the international community to prevent their use.

Rouhani stopped short of saying who had used the arms - Tehran has previously accused Syrian rebels of being behind what it called suspected chemical attacks. He also did not mention the international furore around Syrian opposition reports that forces loyal to the Damascus government killed as many as 1,000 civilians with poison gas in suburbs of Damascus on Wednesday.

"Many of the innocent people of Syria have been injured and martyred by chemical agents and this is unfortunate," recently elected Rouhani was quoted as saying by the ISNA news agency.

"We completely and strongly condemn the use of chemical weapons," he said, according to the agency. "The Islamic Republic gives notice to the international community to use all its might to prevent the use of these weapons anywhere in the world, especially in Syria," he added, according to the Mehr news agency............

[Broadsword***]

I cannot see any huge problem with limited strikes on government command and control centres and on a few military targets, like airfields and missile sites. Apart from acting as a warning against the use of (further) chemical attacks, it would even the fight a little and let Russia know it cannot have its own way. It would be nice to have a UN resolution, but Russia and China will never let that happen.

Give Assad a bloody nose and then stand back for a while.

[NutLoose]

With the Americans saying a line has been drawn, then one would assume they would have to do something, otherwise their credibility would be gone the next time something happened as those involved could simply call their bluff....

What that something is remains to be seen.

[Ronald Reagan]

Broadsword, why do you wish the rebels to win? Why in any way do we want to assist the rebels? What is good about them? Assad has many faults but if he falls and the rebels take over I cannot see any gain for anyone at all apart from a bunch of terrorists who can end up calling the shots in Syria!

If as you say we even the fight it little then it will make the war last longer. The longer it lasts the more people will die.

The best case would be if Assad could somehow win this and take back the whole country though that seems unlikely. If he ever could take it back then there would be peace, no more war. Sadly an unconditional surrender by rebel forces is not going to happen, but that would end the war and the violence very rapidly indeed!

Also regarding the talk of military action against Assad, if the Russians care strongly enough about stopping western military action they could always put their ships close to Syria and Russian aircraft at Syrian bases thus preventing a western attack, that's if they care enough to do so.
One day the war hawks in the west will push so far they end up starting something far larger with Russia or China, probably over some smaller situation to start with that really does not matter to us. I wonder if that larger war is what they really want. Russia and China are not going to keep putting up with this UK/US and now French mentality of ''policeman of the world''. Besides its not as if we have the money or forces to keep doing it, as for our own public opinion its vastly against further interventions.

[Eclectic]

US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel confirmed to reporters that Obama had asked the Pentagon to provide military options in Syria.

The US Navy currently has four destroyers in the Mediterranean, each with more than 90 Tomahawk cruise missiles. The USS Barry and USS Gravely are currently located in the eastern Mediterranean. The USS Mahan and USS Ramage are located in the central Mediterranean.

It is looking like the sarin was delivered in 12 rounds from a Type 63 MLRS, something that both sides in the conflict possess.

Currently in Syria more people are dying in conflicts between the rebels than in the conflicts between the rebels and the government. The jihadist al Nusra are killing anyone who isn't the same as them. They are massacring Christians and Kurds as they ethnically cleanse non government held territory.

This guy has written 8 books on the area and has just returned from several months in Syria.
Karskens: Genocide op Koerden en christenen gaande in Syrië - Knevel en Van den Brink (http://www.eo.nl/tv/knevelenvandenbrink/artikel-detail/karskens-genocide-op-koerden-en-christenen-gaande-in-syrie/#.UhZ7UYlvpz0.twitter)

Then there are the CIA training camps in Jordan. Forces from which crossed into Syria on the 17th and 19th of August, complete with American "advisors" to advance on Damascus. Allegedly : Syrie : l'opération anti-Assad a commencé (http://www.lefigaro.fr/international/2013/08/22/01003-20130822ARTFIG00438-syrie-l-operation-anti-assad-a-commence.php)

In English: Reports claim US-trained Syrian rebels are advancing on Damascus | euronews, world news (http://www.euronews.com/2013/08/22/reports-claim-us-trained-and-led-syrian-rebels-are-advancing-on-damascus/)

[air pig]

I cannot see any huge problem with limited strikes on government command and control centres and on a few military targets, like airfields and missile sites. Apart from acting as a warning against the use of (further) chemical attacks, it would even the fight a little and let Russia know it cannot have its own way. It would be nice to have a UN resolution, but Russia and China will never let that happen.

Give Assad a bloody nose and then stand back for a while.

So you think we should 'even' the conflict up a bit then, what happens if more Sarin is deployed and we don't know who used it some days ago, both sides have the rocket based systems to deploy the gas.

So who do you hit, we have no confirmation of a) where all the regimes CW stockpiles are, b) has security on any been compromised c) have the FSA captured any, d) is it 'bathtub Sarin' as used in the Tokyo attack. What about the consequences after a strike, do we allow mass slaughter by the rebel forces of those seen as either unbelievers or not believing enough, which has happened in the past look at Iraq and it is happening now in Syria and has happened in Egypt before the military got involved.

What would the Russians and Chinese do, Russia could cut off gas supplies to the west and China call in all the US debt it owns, the rule of unintended consequences. What happens if the rebels won then they had Sarin and the means to attack, would they go after Israel at a later date, and the consequences of that are even worse, with the potential of nuclear weapon release as would have happened in GW1 with the Samson option. Remember, James Baker via Tarriq Assiz warned the Iraqi's off quietly through the UN about the potential consequences of a CW attack on Israel.

Time to stand on the sidelines and watch, help Jordan and Turkey with the refugee situation by all means but get involved inside NO NO NO.

[Eclectic]

The Syrian conflict pits Hezbollah and Iran against Al-Qaeda, which is a result for the west.
Very many of the world's moslem nutters are there now. Killing each other. Including over 600 from the West. So British jihadists are there instead of here, which has to be good.

One good option would be to seal the country off and supply no more arms or fuel. Then they would eventually be reduced to throwing stones at each other. Already the number of armoured vehicles and combat aircraft is significantly depleted.

It will be very interesting to see the nature of Obama's strike. Will he attempt to decapitate the regime, go for C4ISTAR, take out the threats to Israel which means scuds and chemical weapons stores or will he just go after military assets on the ground? Or some combination. He is forced in a corner by his "red line" speech and has no option but to act.

[air pig]

Obama is indeed in a corner and is looking like lame duck President in particular with the dispute between the Senate and the House of Representatives and the US forces budget. The American public like the British public will be and in fact are, against any intervention in this situation and look as if they want them to sort it out themselves, without having forces in harms way in particular with CW around. Imagine having to work in CBRN suits and respirators in the heat of the day then the cold of the night.

If he orders the strike, and if he uses cruise missiles, how many MANPADS, SAMS and ZSU 23/4s has Assad got available to defend his sites. Are US intel sources up to date in view of places to target and by giving this sort of warning the Syrians would be foolish not to play a 'shell game' of moving stocks and C4ISTR where possible to other sites.

Airstrikes require tanker C4ISTR SEAD and a base or bases to operate from, that's another problem.

Eclectic: unfortunately being on the border of Iran means you can move supplies without difficulty and they will not want to loose their supply line to Hezboullah in Lebanon. The Saudi's Qatari's on one side and Iran on the other, maybe a good time for them to attack each other, draw in all the idiots and crazies and leave the rest of the world alone. What's not to like about that scenario.

[TEEEJ]

Ronald,
Alex Jones is a conspiracy nut. He will find any snippet from an 'expert talking head' purely to get hits and suck in the gullible. The world is certainly not in need of money making conspiracy peddlars like Alex Jones.

Press released from Doctors without borders.

Brussels/New York, August 24, 2013 -- Three hospitals in Syria's Damascus governorate that are supported by the international medical humanitarian organization Doctors Without Borders Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) have reported to MSF that they received approximately 3,600 patients displaying neurotoxic symptoms in less than three hours on the morning of Wednesday, August 21, 2013. Of those patients, 355 reportedly died.....

“Medical staff working in these facilities provided detailed information to MSF doctors regarding large numbers of patients arriving with symptoms including convulsions, excess saliva, pinpoint pupils, blurred vision and respiratory distress,” said Dr. Bart Janssens, MSF director of operations.

Patients were treated using MSF-supplied atropine, a drug used to treat neurotoxic symptoms. MSF is now trying to replenish the facilities’ empty stocks and provide additional medical supplies and guidance.

“MSF can neither scientifically confirm the cause of these symptoms nor establish who is responsible for the attack,” said Dr. Janssens. “However, the reported symptoms of the patients, in addition to the epidemiological pattern of the events—characterized by the massive influx of patients in a short period of time, the origin of the patients, and the contamination of medical and first aid workers—strongly indicate mass exposure to a neurotoxic agent.



Syria: Thousands Suffering Neurotoxic Symptoms Treated in Hospitals Supported by MSF | Doctors Without Borders (http://www.doctorswithoutborders.org/press/release.cfm?id=7029&cat=press-release)

[glad rag]

So you think we should 'even' the conflict up a bit then, what happens if more Sarin is deployed and we don't know who used it some days ago, both sides have the rocket based systems to deploy the gas.

So who do you hit, we have no confirmation of a) where all the regimes CW stockpiles are, b) has security on any been compromised c) have the FSA captured any, d) is it 'bathtub Sarin' as used in the Tokyo attack. What about the consequences after a strike, do we allow mass slaughter by the rebel forces of those seen as either unbelievers or not believing enough, which has happened in the past look at Iraq and it is happening now in Syria and has happened in Egypt before the military got involved.

What would the Russians and Chinese do, Russia could cut off gas supplies to the west and China call in all the US debt it owns, the rule of unintended consequences. What happens if the rebels won then they had Sarin and the means to attack, would they go after Israel at a later date, and the consequences of that are even worse, with the potential of nuclear weapon release as would have happened in GW1 with the Samson option. Remember, James Baker via Tarriq Assiz warned the Iraqi's off quietly through the UN about the potential consequences of a CW attack on Israel.

Time to stand on the sidelines and watch, help Jordan and Turkey with the refugee situation by all means but get involved inside NO NO NO.

Simply this.

[Ronald Reagan]

Eclectic you make a great point about Hezbollah and Iran vs Al-Qaeda.
Letting it play out is probably a good idea though one does worry about the civilian population who probably just wish to live their lives and hate both extremes. While I strongly dislike the Iranian regime and certainly Hezbollah I find them both atleast one magnitude better than Al-Qaeda. Under the right circumstances one could sit down and talk to the Iranian regime, to conduct business and trade deals with them like Russia and China do. But Al-Qaeda, as far as I am concerned are the true bad guys. Evil incarnate. The idea that after Sept 11th 2001 we (UK, USA and France) could even remotely be on the same side as them is just mad! To engage in military action on the side that they are!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We should really keep out of it, but if we wanted to do anything it should be to help Assad destroy Al-Qaeda.
Our leaders have truly lost the plot. What a bunch of useless morons they really are. I thought the war on terror was supposed to be about destroying Al-Qaeda, not launching airstrikes on there behalf!

[tartare]

Agree with Broadsword.
Go to war with Tomahawks - knock out C&C.
BTW it's Sunni versus Alawite.
Trying to airstrike at this point would be very risky given the number of manpads.
China's not going to call in its debt, and Russia is not going to cut off gas supplies to the west:rolleyes:
The degree of coordination - the number of sites involved only points to one perp I reckon.
The tone of what MSF is saying points to the scale of this.
Mrs T is a TV producer.
She emailed me on Friday about the unedited raw pics of the gassing that are coming in off the satellites to news organisations worldwide.
The ones you guys don't see.
Not something you can sit by and ignore I'm afraid.

[TEEEJ]

Ronald,
It plays both ways. If Assad is removed and the rebels seize control then Al Qaeda is not going to last long in Syria and certainly not hold any position of power. Only a proportion of rebels within Syria are Al Qaeda or the rest of the extremist nut jobs.

You only have to look at Iraq when Al-Q started pushing their luck and took over suburbs. That resulted in the the US and some insurgents combining forces and taking over those areas where Al Q had tried to set up controlled areas. Yes Al-Q are in Syria but you can't broad brush the majority of Assad opposition in the same light. Al Q and other extremists are always going to be in the background of such conflicts but they are never going to have majority popular support.

[Ronald Reagan]

So you wish to help hand Syria to radical terrorists tartare? clever move :ok:
If this article is correct then two governments are to blame for loss of life in Syria:-
Former French Foreign Minister Roland Dumas: West was preparing attack on Syria before crisis started | Global Research (http://www.globalresearch.ca/former-french-foreign-minister-roland-dumas-west-was-preparing-attack-on-syria-before-crisis-started/5341296)

Here is a video link of him saying the same.
France's Former Foreign Minister: UK Government Prepared War in Syria Two Years Before 2011 Protests - YouTube (http://youtu.be/Kz-s2AAh06I)

If the UK and France had not stuck their noses in to begin with then Syria would probably be a stable, safe and functioning country right now. If the above is true then those in our nation who planned this are war criminals.

[Ronald Reagan]

But the key thing is that they are there at all TEEEJ. If we had not gone into Iraq or Libya at all and not planned this whole thing in Syria then they would not be in any of those nations. By doing what we have done, we have helped them via our actions. Our continued and repeated policy of failure has caused this to be the case.

To be honest I have doubts about many of the so called moderate rebels to, I wonder exactly how moderate they are. They are likely less fanatical than Al Qaeda but one wonders by how much. I hope we do not see a post Assad Syria but if we do I fear for all the minority groups.

As someone on here said, before our little wars came along one could safely visit Iraq, Libya and Syria, sure you would likely have a government minder but you would be safe. I would imagine its going to be a VERY long time before its safe enough to visit these nations again without the fear of being kidnapped or killed.

[air pig]

Agree with Broadsword.
Go to war with Tomahawks - knock out C&C.
BTW it's Sunni versus Alawite.
Trying to airstrike at this point would be very risky given the number of manpads.
China's not going to call in its debt, and Russia is not going to cut off gas supplies to the west
The degree of coordination - the number of sites involved only points to one perp I reckon.
The tone of what MSF is saying points to the scale of this.
Mrs T is a TV producer.
She emailed me on Friday about the unedited raw pics of the gassing that are coming in off the satellites to news organisations worldwide.
The ones you guys don't see.
Not something you can sit by and ignore I'm afraid.

Sunni vs Alawites - indeed but supported by the Shia in Iran.

Tomahawks for C&C - only have a small number of ingress routes and manpads and ZSU23/4 traps can be set up, and in 22 years since GW 1 don't you think governments have learnt both redundancy and dispersal of the C&C networks. Now in theory you could set up a system using PCs or laptops linked together.

China and debt - it could be called in or just make American manufacturers life extremely hard round the world as they have created a culture in the third world by their investment that they call the shots including the extraction of rare earth metals.

Russia and gas - Russia cut the gas off to Georgia when they had a dispute about cost, western Europe needs gas from Russia and Putin has it and is not afraid to use it as a weapon and winter will soon be upon us.

MSF - have only pointed to the scale of the deaths but have not apportioned blame.

TV coverage - if the coverage is graphic then it should be shown to improve the case for action but who shot the pictures and the veracity of the film.

More coverage coming out from the Assad side showing containers in tunnels, which I suspect are part of the Syrian Air Defence system. This may show the idea I postulated earlier about bath tub Sarin.

The UN is toothless in effect, and do you want to cause an even bigger atrocity by throwing Tomahawks around without suitable data, the Syrians still have an air defence system which we may believe is largely intact, we don't know of the S300s deployment and possibly Russian advisor's with them or within the Syrian air defence system as a whole . Satellite technology is wonderful but its only one club in the C4ISTAR golf bag and if you are unable to fly over or near your target area you have no or limited information. If you have to have targeting are we ready as we did in Libya to send in ground forces to act as JTACs in full CBRN equipment.

Any move by the Western countries is now being talked about openly, if you were Assad you'd be playing a shell game. The press is pontificating about the use of bases in Germany, with an election coming up will Merkel allow it, I don't think so, remember some of the 9/11 bombers were based in Hamburg, Italy is unstable politically.

I said earlier and I continue to think is that we stay out, look at the disaster we caused in Libya, and eventually the murder of the US Ambassador, in part due to the incompetence of the US administration. The people ie electorate in both the UK and US if asked would want NO part of this emerging disaster. Support the refugees in Jordan and Turkey only.

[fergineer]

Tartare I have taken journo's into war and famine zones and they tell me that they have to look hard to find most of the pictures that they send back so to believe that it is all widespread needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. If it is that bad maybe they should show the pictures that they have, until then it is unconfirmed, let alone who dunnit!!!!!

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Tartare

If you really feel so passionate about the rebel's cause, why don't you join them on the ground? From what you say, they need all the help they can get and would really appreciate your tactical military advice.

I would rather send a thousand willing volunteers like yourself, than a single British or US serviceman - who will have no choice in the matter.

It's a total mess. Lets keep our boys and girls well out of it. We don't want any more body bags from yet another religious conflict.

[Eclectic]

The rebels have a good supply of ATGMs and an intermittent supply of MANPADs. They also have lots of explosives that they use in tunnels, home made weapons and IEDs. Some of this they have captured from the regime, but most has been supplied externally.

The Saudis and Turks have been involved to some extent, but by far the biggest benefactor has been Qatar, who have spent about $3 billion arming the rebels.
Initially a lot of the arms were sourced in Libya (by the CIA, who are organising everything) but the killing of the US ambassador in Benghazi halted this.
The next big source was Sudan and rumours are of Ukrainian aircraft freighting supplies.

But what has been very confusing is the vast preference that has been given to Jabhat al-Nusra over the Fee Syrian Army as recipients for all this kit. Early in the war the FSA were the dominant rebel force, but the supply of Qatar funded arms to al Nusra has seen them come from nowhere to become the biggest fighting force.
Al Nusra is an an Al Qaeda associate and is designated as a terrorist organisation by the UN, the UK, the USA etc. Yet the CIA has been organising their receipt of most of the Qatar funded arms.
Al Nusra are committing lots of atrocities, mass murdering regime prisoners and ethnically cleansing Christians and Kurds. A couple of weeks ago they took over some coastal villages and mass murdered the Alawites there. In all their captured territory they enforce strict sharia law.

So why are the CIA doing this? One theory is that the FSA are militarily ineffective. Consisting of local volunteers who want to protect their homes and deserters from the army they were unwilling to take up the bigger fight against the regime.
Al Nusra, in comparison, are extremely effective. Salafist extremists committed to Jihad with no concern for their own lives they are happy to throw themselves at the regime. For them the goal of establishing a caliphate is worth everything. Al Nusra have been reinforced with volunteers from many countries, hardened Chechen and Pakistani terrorists and lots of very experienced Sunnis from Iraq. As well as the British, Dutch, American etc islamic nutters.

Another thing that is surprising is the very low level of Iranian involvement. In Iran there are very many Shias who want to go to Syria to fight and their government isn't letting them go. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is well over 100,000 strong and must be desperate to be allowed to get involved. There are a small number of Iranians in Syria, mostly guarding holy Shiite shrines. The restraint shown by the Iranian government has been impressive and surprising.

The USA and UK governments are planning their involvement right now. It could happen tonight or any time from now on. They are convinced (presumably by SIGINT) that Assad was responsible for the chemical attack. Some say he did this deliberately to terrorise his opponents, knowing that Russia and China would back him all the way, especially at the UN. But the USA/UK are bypassing the UN, using the Kosovo precedent. Just now they are putting assets in place and gathering target information. They have SF in place to help with the latter.

The USA have at least 360 Tomahawks in theatre and can easily deploy armed drones. As in Libya they will not put boots on the ground. The big question is whether they will bother using manned aircraft. LCRA is an unsinkable aircraft carrier and there are plenty of Turkish and Israeli (even Jordanian) bases that could be used. But to go down this route would take a huge commitment and if they just want to give Assad a bloody nose it isn't necessary.

[alemaobaiano]

They are convinced (presumably by SIGINT) that Assad was responsible for the chemical attack.

I'm pretty sure that if Hague had anything that indicated direct regime action in this attack he would be on every TV channel and newspaper front page with it. Even he can't be stupid enough to think that the public are supportive of the rumours and innuendo he's spreading.

If there was concrete evidence, we would already know about it. The fact that we can capture SIGINT isn't a secret and releasing it would probably swing public support behind some kind of action.

TTFN

[Ronald Reagan]

Interesting point Eclectic, I wonder indeed why the Iranians are not doing more, they will likely be the next target on the list for the US, UK and France. I wonder who is next on the list of places to attack, Iran? North Korea? No wonder they both wants nukes for self defence!
If Iran wanted to they could fully swing this in favour of Assad and end the war sooner rather than later. In moral terms it would be the best course of action.

I really hope our nations do not launch military action, but they are just warmongers and cannot help themselves.

The UK, French and US politicians really are a pathetic bunch of losers. Unable to run their own nations properly but ready to stick their snouts into the affairs of other nations. Thank god for China and Russia, two voices of reason in this world, it gives me much comfort that our nations are in decline but China and Russia are on the rise. The future could interesting especially sometime down the road the USA, UK and France economically collapse. If that happens we will see China, Russia and India being the dominant military powers on Earth. Fun times ahead, just not for London, Paris and Washington:ok:

[air pig]

Eclectic: I'm afraid you are far to gung ho for your own good and I might even say very one sided with an axe to grind. If, as other posters have stated and I agree with them, that if you feel so strongly about the situation, your flight could be leaving from Birmingham or Heathrow soon. It appears you have a desire for military intervention but I suspect that you will not be part of a UK response, just shouting from the sidelines unlike others who will actually push the release button.

To come back to the main point of the suspected agent being Sarin, I refer you to the report from the Guardia/Observer today:

Syrian hospitals treated thousands for poison gas symptoms, says charity | World news | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/24/syrian-chemical-weapons-rebel)

The potency of the agent released appears very low with a 10% mortality rather 85 - 90% you would expect with Sarin. This leads me to believe that this is 'bath tub Sarin' rather than industrially made.

As to intelligence available and stating that the decision has already been taken, in the UK, as it is not an emerging danger to the UK Parliament will have to be recalled and the situation debated and voted on. the perils of democracy mean we cannot just attack in this situation.

You also assert that Cyprus is an unsinkable aircraft carrier, which is true, but I suspect the Jordanians would be unhappy to be seen as such and your laughable conspiracy theory that Israel that would allow bases to be used is patent nonsense and will not allow SLCMs to overfly their territory. The Israeli's will just sit behind their border and let everyone kill each other, less of a problem for them and a politically neutral stance.

Eclectic, as I stated at the start, your flight leaves soon from an airport near you, go and join the fight, as if you go it may mean one less UK/US serviceman/woman who has no choice in going, or are you either a troll or a keyboard warrior who unlike many on here like myself served in HM forces. We should stay out and only help the refugees in Turkey and Jordan. NO NO NO to any involvement.

[Eclectic]

@ air pig

I think you are being unfair.
If you look back through this thread you will see that I have repeatedly said that we should not get involved. And I have consistently pointed out how nasty the rebels are.

All I am posing is facts on the ground and my analysis of them.

[Courtney Mil]

It's a total mess. Lets keep our boys and girls well out of it.

I'm not arguing for or against involvement, but your remark does make me wonder. I see that sentiment stated around here a lot these days. I would love that our boys and girls didn't have to be put in harm's way, but that is rather what they're for. WWI & WWII were total messes, the Falklands, GW1, GW2, NI, etc. The fact that there might be loss of life in a military action is probably not always the prime reason for not going. When our seniors faught the Nazis, the decission was taken (partly, at least) on the basis that the bad guys were wrong and we were obliged to try to stop them.

So this "total mess" (which I fully agree it is) and our potential military involvement there will need to be decided upon other criteria. That's not to say we shouldn't weigh up the possible losses - Charge of the Light Brigade springs to mind, Little Big Horn, etc.

That said, I too hope we don't have to face yet another senseless loss of life for the wrong reasons.

[air pig]

Eclectic: In that case I apologise if you think I am bring unfair, we just have different views of each other analysis. The fact that the rebels are nasty is not in dispute, but in my opinion throwing Tomahawks at the Assad forces may even make that country more unstable, allowing the rebels to fracture into smaller and even more violent groups. There are too many outside influences in this situation for this to be resolved around a table in a civilised matter, as no one will give way. Assad regaining control with an iron hand in a steel glove, whilst not the best idea or desirable, it may, by being a 'strongman' solution bring some peace in the area.

Unfortunately, religiously motivated groups all over the world commit atrocities without them being extensively reported in particular in central Africa and Asia.

The use of a CW is to be deplored and perpetrators should be brought before a legally constituted court on a charge of either a war crime or as an outside attempted genocide.

As I have previous stated, we need to stay out and watch from the sidelines, giving only refugee aid.

[air pig]

I'm not arguing for or against involvement, but your remark does make me wonder. I see that sentiment stated around here a lot these days. I would love that our boys and girls didn't have to be put in harm's way, but that is rather what they're for. WWI & WWII were total messes, the Falklands, GW1, GW2, NI, etc. The fact that there might be loss of life in a military action is probably not always the prime reason for not going. When our seniors faught the Nazis, the decission was taken (partly, at least) on the basis that the bad guys were wrong and we were obliged to try to stop them.

So this "total mess" (which I fully agree it is) and our potential military involvement there will need to be decided upon other criteria. That's not to say we shouldn't weigh up the possible losses - Charge of the Light Brigade springs to mind, Little Big Horn, etc.

That said, I too hope we don't have to face yet another senseless loss of life for the wrong reasons.

The wars and actions you have stated were in my opinion either wars between nations and in response to expansionism of other countries, liberation of places as desired by their inhabitants as in the Falklands, internal support for the civil authorities as in NI or under UN mandate (not GW2) or by invitation by a head of state as in Oman or Borneo.

This conflict has no real impact on the UK, and may indeed cause internal security difficulties as we have seen in the past. If there was a strategic importance, then I'd go with the idea of intervention but as there isn't this is one to sit out.

The oath I swore at Cranwell was for the protection of the Queen and Country, anything else has to be very carefully thought out, planned for and most importantly an exit strategy and post conflict reconstruction where required, not just kick the door in and think 'wtf do we do now' as happened in Iraq. I have no problem in deploying forces, but what is the objective and outcome envisaged not just giving politicians a warm fuzzy feeling at being big and hard, invariably it's not their blood and treasure being lost.

[Eclectic]

@ air pig

I have never said that we should use Tomahawks. Just that we are likely to.
We shouldn't do anything, leave them to fight to a standstill. But Obama committed USA with his "red line" and the UK is his closest ally. So we will probably launch a handful of Trafalgar SLCMs on co-ordinates provided by the USA and with them providing us with replacements FOC.

If you go back to the beginning of this thread you will see that my position has been consistent. You will also see that we are in total agreement.

Meanwhile: AFP: Hollande says 'body of evidence' shows Damascus 'responsible' for chemical attacks: https://mobile.mmedia.me/lb/en/Newest-Developments/afp-hollande-says-body-of-evidence-shows-damascus-responsible-for-chemical-attacks

Another factor. When Obama attacks Syria will Assad retaliate by launching his considerable rocket force against Israel?

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Quote:-

Game on
Looks like it's finally time for Assad to get some Tomahawk lovin'.
Good luck boys and girls - get some.
At the risk of sounding like a chickenhawk - previous posters who say it aint our problem need to have another look at the pictures of poison gassed kids.
Tally ho...

Eclectic

From your previous post above, I got the distinct impression you were advocating the use of Tomahawks and that our forces should be used.

[air pig]

[QUOTE]@ air pig

I have never said that we should use Tomahawks. Just that we are likely to.
We shouldn't do anything, leave them to fight to a standstill. But Obama committed USA with his "red line" and the UK is his closest ally. So we will probably launch a handful of Trafalgar SLCMs on co-ordinates provided by the USA and with them providing us with replacements FOC.

If you go back to the beginning of this thread you will see that my position has been consistent. You will also see that we are in total agreement.

Meanwhile: AFP: Hollande says 'body of evidence' shows Damascus 'responsible' for chemical attacks: https://mobile.mmedia.me/lb/en/Newes...emical-attacks

Another factor. When Obama attacks Syria will Assad retaliate by launching his considerable rocket force against Israel? ][/QUOTE

You make very valid points, sometimes politicians should just shut up and say nothing as they are frequently hoisted by there own petards. If Assad does attack Israel even with conventional weapons the Israeli's will strike and strike hard, if CW is involved then all bets will be off. I suspect that he Israeli's will see it as an attempt at state sponsored genocide and attack with some small but powerful nuclear weapons. Obama needs to be cognascent of this and go and read his history before even thinking of authorising missile/air strikes and its after effects.

We have to wait until the UN have investigated and seen their results. The so called international community is calling for action and as usual the UK/US and this time France are stepping forward as its policeman. It would be good if others did the job instead of the usual countries who then suffer a backlash due their actions. Oh and a last point, we can't afford it !!

[henra]

Quote:-

Game on
Looks like it's finally time for Assad to get some Tomahawk lovin'.
Good luck boys and girls - get some.
At the risk of sounding like a chickenhawk - previous posters who say it aint our problem need to have another look at the pictures of poison gassed kids.
Tally ho...

Eclectic

From your previous post above, I got the distinct impression you were advocating the use of Tomahawks and that our forces should be used.

Hmmm, I'm obviously not @ecletic, but are you sure you didn't attribute @tartare's post #385 incorrectly to him?
Or are you suggesting @tartare = @eclectic?

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Well spotted Henra

Apologies Eclectic, I meant Tartare!!

Must be the result of mixing EFES and red wine.

[ORAC]

Syria agrees to allow UN access but US says move is ‘too late’ (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4356011a-0d6d-11e3-ba82-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2czvPnpTp)

Western-Mid East military action prepared for Syria. Israel, Jordan, Turkey face up to Syrian counter-attack. Russia on war alert (http://www.debka.com/article/23220/)

The potency of the agent released appears very low with a 10% mortality rather 85 - 90% you would expect with Sarin. This leads me to believe that this is 'bath tub Sarin' rather than industrially made.

June: Sarin in Syrian Crowd Control Munitions? (http://www.nucleardiner.com/index.php/archive/item/sarin-in-syrian-crowd-control-munitions)

[Courtney Mil]

Air Pig,

Re Post 421, I quite agree. And I think you make my point quite well in that the decission to involve or ignore was based on factors other that people getting hurt. Where we go with Syria, who knows?

I do not what our people in harms way for the wrong reasons, all I'm saying is that the modern aversity to mil ops based purely on the possibility of casualties is not how decissions should be made.

As for "no real impact on the UK", everything is global these days and there are terrible wrongs being done in Syria.

I fully take your point about the actions I mentioned. Again, just examples of places we went for reasons other than head count.

[Eclectic]

I think the 10% sarin mortality rate was from those making hospital alive.
Very many were killed and didn't make hospital.

Highly graphic *WARNING* video of some that didn't make hospital: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2r7hUwAxxc

Photographs and analysis of the actual chemical weapons used: Preliminary analysis of alleged CW munitions used in Syria | The Rogue Adventurer (http://rogueadventurer.com/2013/08/25/preliminary-analysis-of-alleged-cw-munitions-used-in-syria/)

[tartare]

Courtney is exactly right.
Wars are messy, there's never been anything clinical about them.
But when do you make a call.
Limited ingress for cruise missiles?
Then how come the Operation Orchard managed to get a couple of Sufas and F15s past the Syrian air defence network to take out the reactor, and that was a couple of years ago?
If the spams decide they're going to act, I wonder will the air defence network will prove just as effective now (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suter_(computer_program)) as it did then.
BFB - let me see if I am understanding you correctly.
I am a civilian.
I have never served - and have always been open about that fact in posts here.
There is nothing worse than a walt.
Yet I do have an interest in, and moderately detailed knowledge of intel, politics, aircraft and have spent a little time in Israel as well, shortly after the beginning of the second Intifada (I am a gentile by the way).
Therefore I have no right to express an opinion in this forum?
I think you need to read what I've posted a little more carefully - and please don't try and use that tired old trope of `if you're such a man, go and join them.'
I wasn't advocating putting you and your kin in harms way.
I was saying use cruise missiles - which appears to be exactly what is going to happen.

Edit - the story is moving fast see this NY Times report. (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/26/world/middleeast/syria-says-un-will-get-access-to-site-of-possible-chemical-attack.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)
Monkey - that is - quite a video!

[Baehr]

What if it wasn't Assad's lot who released the chemicals?

We've heard from Hague and Obama that there will be 'consequences' if they did.

What if - just if - the rebels used chemicals against their own people hoping to blame Assad? (It would certainly look good, given that there were UN Chemical experts in the area.)

After all, martyrs are martyrs and (as far as the revels are concerned) "It's a just cause".

Do you think Hague and Obama would take out the rebels?

It does appear that Sarin may have been used. But who used it? - Surely it is incumbent on those who retaliate to determine beyond reasonable doubt who used it before they even consider any form of military response?

[monkeytennis]

Meanwhile...allah akhbar indeed...:eek:

?????-??? ???????||????? ????? ???? ????? ?????? ??????? ????? ???? ????? ??? ?????????24-8-2013?? - YouTube

[VinRouge]

No more alu snack bars from this lot either...

Delta Hotel.

Click the link at the top...

LiveLeak.com - group of FSA militants received a big surprise from an SAA MIG JET+slow motion

[Cows getting bigger]

BBC News - Syria crisis: Diplomacy has not worked, says William Hague (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23840065)

If this leads where we all think it is going, please please please have a desired end state.

[Eclectic]

Re the videos, Su-24MK and Su-22M4 use KAB-500KR TV guided bomb or KAB-500L laser guided bomb.

Re chemical weapons. Syria has one of the world's largest stockpiles. Assad has been using them regularly against the rebels since 19 March this year, without the world doing anything.
This latest horrendous event in Damascus was exacerbated because the civilian population were still in place and because people were sleeping on the ground floor to avoid the dangers from artillery on the upper floors.

Since the attack there has been a sharp increase in the rate of supply of munitions to the rebels with many hundreds of tons crossing the border from Turkey.

There is no good thing that we can do. There is not even a best thing that we can do. Any action that we do or don't take will result in disaster.

Even helping the Kurds in the north resist the genocidal attacks from al Nusra would be opposed by our NATO allies, the Turks.

[alemaobaiano]

Assad has been using them regularly against the rebels since 19 March this year, without the world doing anything.

You have some evidence for that, or is it yet another pearl from the Wee Willie Hague book of propaganda?

[DADDY-OH!]

Alemaobiano

And of course those nice, friendly, rule & fairness-adhering chaps in Al Qaeda PLC. wouldn't dream of using Bio-Chemical weapons on an area of secularist Syrian civilians would they?

Knowing that the gullible, soft-handed, spineless political apparatchiks of the liberalist western democracies would fall for such a trick.

Syria is not our war.

[Eclectic]

@ alemaobaiano
Go to YouTube.
Type in Syria Gas
Arrange results in date order. Then go back to before the current attacks and you find videos like these: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JCYZKiw10jk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B1ChYAdcws
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jqh74v9QpuU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ed19qlsh-Mw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHwmjCRDZAw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLPmmfg_oYA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BYbC-Y0y5k
Plus more.
Here is helicopter delivery:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oUFi79VAUA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZZr-nmB0do

But there is little doubt about both sides using chemical weapons. The regime have far more supplies so have been using it more.

[G-F0RC3]

If it is proven that the Syrian government used chemical weapons in this case, then I believe we should take action. Not necessarily action to remove the government from power, but tactical strikes on stores of chemical weapons and any facilities used to direct their deployment.

I hear a lot of people saying "it's not our war" and such like, but I disagree. Irrespective of the difficulties such situations pose (and they are many, whichever action you take), ultimately we are facing a humanitarian crisis that we may have the technology to stop. Where innocent children are being slaughtered in the most excruciating and heinous fashion, I believe it is the responsibility of everyone with a moral compass to do whatever they can to make it stop. It's not the same as Iraq or any of our other recent mistakes; this is about saving lives that are being lost, not speculation on potential threats or a venture to acquire oil. If ever there was a purpose for having the UN, this is it.

[spooky3]

Syria: PM Cuts Holiday To Discuss 'Attack' (http://news.sky.com/story/1133171/syria-pm-cuts-holiday-to-discuss-attack)

[Eclectic]

A French newspaper is reporting that a coalition has been put together of US, France, UK, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Italy, Canada and Turkey in order to attack Assad.
Cameron has returned from holiday and heads a war cabinet tomorrow.
There are increasing calls for Parliament to be recalled before we strike. But spokesmen are saying this may not be necessary (due to the limited nature of the proposed strike and the need to act quickly).
Syria: Britain and US pledge to use force within two weeks as UN weapons inspectors prepare to visit alleged chemical weapons attack site - Middle East - World - The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-britain-and-us-pledge-to-use-force-within-two-weeks-as-un-weapons-inspectors-prepare-to-visit-alleged-chemical-weapons-attack-site-8784435.html)
Hague says UN backing not necessary (Kosovo precedent).
On Saturday the 4 US destroyers in the Mediterranean were ordered closer to Syria.

[Onceapilot]

Well "something" is brewing if DC needs to return early from his hol's. He is in the seat of government and, he hasn't come back just to talk to MP's:uhoh:.

OAP

[air pig]

Alemaobiano

And of course those nice, friendly, rule & fairness-adhering chaps in Al Qaeda PLC. wouldn't dream of using Bio-Chemical weapons on an area of secularist Syrian civilians would they?

Knowing that the gullible, soft-handed, spineless political apparatchiks of the liberalist western democracies would fall for such a trick.

Syria is not our war.

Totally agree, waiting to hear what the Russian Foreign Minister has to say in a couple of hours. We will have had by Wednesday two and a half days to recall Parliament on standby. Whilst I hate labours guts with a passion, the idiot Alexander is right on the nail for once. This is a situation which is NOT a national security risk to the UK, in fact may increase our risk domestically.

The coalition of the willing include Saudi Arabia and Qatar, enemies of Iran, yet more explosives to add to the pot and may give Iran the excuse to close or restrict traffic in the Straits of Hormuz.

Sky, reports that snipers have shot at the UN inspection team, Assad's forces or rebels.

Politicians shouting their mouths off is making the situation worse and ramping up the bloodlust for action. Ashdown calling for limited action, man's hardly ever right at the best of times and in my opinion wrong again.

Time to stay out, not be involved and support Jordan and Turkey with the refugee problem.

[alemaobaiano]

Eclectic

I said proof, not propaganda videos. You know, something like an unequivocal statement from the UN that the regime has used CW, or even a definitive statement from one of the politicians itching to get involved. Wee Willie's "belief" doesn't count, after all some people believe in Santa and the Easter
Bunny.

And of course those nice, friendly, rule & fairness-adhering chaps in Al Qaeda PLC. wouldn't dream of using Bio-Chemical weapons on an area of secularist Syrian civilians would they?

As a good percentage of the "rebels" are not Syrian they wouldn't actually be using CW on their "own" people, would they?

[Eclectic]

@ alemaobaiano

You obviously haven't watched all those videos.
Two are from the BBC.
And one is US government.

[alemaobaiano]

Two are from the BBC.
And one is US government.

And none of them contain any proof. Plenty of supposition, plenty of opinion, and yet not one piece of concrete evidence.

[air pig]

@ alemaobaiano

You obviously haven't watched all those videos.
Two are from the BBC.
And one is US government.

And, which kind person/s gave them to the BBC and the US.

[TURIN]

I'm not military, never have been. But, are we really going to go to war based on tv reports?



Posted from Pprune.org App for Android

[Eclectic]

It seems that you don't believe governments and top Western experts.

So the only valid proof would be to go and see for yourself.

[Ronald Reagan]

Wow the state of those rebels in the videos earlier, and a few on here along with some western governments want them to run Syria, simply unreal!
Assad is still clearly the least bad option, actually compared to them his regime running Syria seems a pretty damn good option!

For those of short memory lets look at the last terrible and pointless little war that did far more harm than good!

Two years on from the fall of Colonel Gaddafi in Libya, the euphoria of the revolution has all but gone. Today, armed militias and Islamists rule much of the country fighting over territory, smuggling routes, and shares of dwindling oil revenue. To top that off, a desperate government is quietly re-activating Colonel Gaddafi's feared surveillance apparatus, using it to hunt down dissenters. RT's Paula Slier reports on the sobering anniversary.
Tripoli Torment: Libya crippled by jihad & oil brawl 2 yrs after Gaddafi ouster - YouTube (http://youtu.be/HYnCeYdaikc)

Another place totally ruined! If Assad falls this will be Syria in the future! Maybe Syria could even be worse. I am made sick to the stomach by Cameron, Hague, Obama, Hollander and Erdogan. (Erdogan himself is a much reviled figure by many in Turkey).

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Sadly it looks as though the worst is going to happen, no matter what the inspection teams find out.

I couldn't imagine a more fragmented coalition, with more diverse and extreme political agendas. It only needs Israel and Iran to make it even more flaky. Not too sure how Canada fits into it, other than having a bully on its Southern border! Hopefully they are joining purely because of the moral issues.

At this point, it matters very little who the evil b@stards were that used the gas, things are about to get very much worse. The potential outcome could be extremely messy, overspilling into the Mid-East, Europe and probably beyond.

[Ronald Reagan]

Eclectic, do you honestly expect any of us to believe anything that the UK, US or French governments have to tell us?
I remember Iraq and WMD!

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me!

Also check out my link about Libya above. I think that war was the final nail in the coffin for my support of the fools we call politicians, also the final time in my life I would ever vote Tory! As for the muppet Labour party not a chance either.

[air pig]

It seems that you don't believe governments and top Western experts.

I remember the sh*t Blair with 45 minutes and weapons of mass destruction and lying to the UN. Trust a politician, only when their cold dead body is on a mortuary slab even then without a stake through the heart (if you can find it) I would be sceptical they were dead.

[alemaobaiano]

It seems that you don't believe governments and top Western experts.

Given their propensity for outright deception why should I believe any government who has an interest in this conflict?

And what of the western experts who aren't convinced? Here's a collection of dissenting views.

Syria: 1,300 killed in gas attack, says*Oppn - Hindustan Times (http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/RestOfAsia/Syria-over-1-300-massacred-in-chemical-attack-by-army/Article1-1110869.aspx)

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Before anyone else joins in the Syrian mess, I'd love to hear what the 'out' plan is, or even what the objectives are.
Those points should be compared to how well such plans/objectives have worked (as Ronald Reagan has pointed out), in Libya, 'Stan, Iraq, etc.

I do not hear any great clamour to 'do something' from any significant proportion of the general populus in the countries contemplating action. Indeed, all the chat I hear is against action.

So what, exactly, are the political leaders up to?

[Roadster280]

If Assad has used chemical weapons against his own citizens, it pretty much stands to reason that he will use them against foreign aggressors on his soil.

I can imagine the apoplexy in Washington & London if that happens. What to do if (when) that happens? Nuke Damascus?

I see nothing but own goals ahead here.

[Lonewolf_50]

Lonewolf 50
Your choice of words is borderline inhuman given the atrocious savagery that has recently been witnessed. I am, however, sure that you sleep soundly and safely in your comfortable bed.
And I am responsible for none of that. My words are not inhuman, and your overwrought post establishes your lack of perspective. Thanks for sharing your outrage. I sleep quite well, thanks, as I'm not the one gassing people. Save your ire for those who are.

In other news:
Seems that the Alloha Snack Bar brigade forgot that (http://www.pprune.org/military-aircrew/513470-here-comes-syria-22.html#post8012261)cover and concealment, like harassment, must be continuous to be effective.

Eclectic:
Re chemical weapons. Syria has one of the world's largest stockpiles. Assad has been using them regularly against the rebels since 19 March this year, without the world doing anything.
Unproven assertion, but you may be right. The trouble is in confirming this line of thought. There is the chance that Assad believes that he can get Russian top cover, and thus thinks he can get away with this sort of thing. But adding to the number of parties in this mess, even if it hurts him, strikes me as a fine way of making it into a bigger mess.

I am hoping that the US and Russia can find some way to work together on this problem in Syria. That to me is the critical domino that needs to fall for the international community to be able to assist in any meaningful way beyond refugee support.

EDIT:
For those who didn't go to the Hindustan times link ...
Specialists in the impact of chemical weapons said the video evidence was not entirely convincing.

"At the moment, I am not totally convinced because the people that are
helping them are without any protective clothing and without any respirators," said Paula Vanninen, director of Verifin, the Finnish Institute for Verification of the Chemical Weapons Convention. "In a real case, they would also be contaminated and would also be having symptoms."

John Hart, head of the Chemical and Biological Security Project at Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said he had not seen the telltale evidence in the eyes of the victims that would be compelling evidence of chemical weapons use.

"Of the videos that I've seen for the last few hours, none of them show
pinpoint pupils... this would indicate exposure to organophosphorus nerve
agents," he said.

Gwyn Winfield, editor of CBRNe World magazine, which specialises in chemical weapons issues, said the evidence did not suggest that the chemicals used were of the weapons-grade that the Syrian army possesses in its stockpiles. "We're not seeing reports that doctors and nurses... are becoming fatalities, so that would suggest that the toxicity of it isn't what we would consider military sarin. It may well be that it is a lower-grade," Winfield told AFP.

Russia, which has previously said it has proof of chemical weapons use by the rebels, expressed deep scepticism about the opposition's claims. The foreign ministry said the timing of the allegations as UN inspectors
began their work "makes us think that we are once again dealing with a
premeditated provocation."
The fog or war extends beyond Syria's borders, eh?

If we look back into history, we recall reports in the early months of WW I that included
GERMANS BAYONET BELGIAN BABIES.
BELGIAN NUNS RAPED BY VICIOUS HUNS

In 1898, America went to war with Spain over Cuba, with a critical piece of rhetoric, the explosion of USS Maine in Havanna Harbor, being blamed on the Spanish. A somewhat famous Naval Officer named Hyman Rickover did an investigation that, to say the least, cast serious doubt on any external agent being the proximate cause of that explosion.

[Ronald Reagan]

Hysteria around chemical attack suits those who want military intervention in Syria - Lavrov ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/lavrov-syria-press-conference-003/)

[smujsmith]

Playing Devils advocate, and interested in your insight, I wonder if anyone knows if Syrian Missiles can reach the only aircraft carrier serving in the British Military, RAF Akrotiri. If so, I could see a wave of Tomahawks on Syria being answered by Syrian missile attacks on Troodos, Akrotiri etc. I'm sure that even the Russians might argue that the Syrians were defending themselves from external aggression. How many would die in Cyprus, if chemical agents were used ? Of course, US military, being mobile and not easily hit could soldier on. Does anyone else wonder on a similar course of events, or are the Syrians not capable of such responses ?

Smudge

[Rosevidney1]

G-FORC3 wrote:
If ever there was a purpose for having the UN, this is it.

The United Nations is not only unfit for purpose, it has demonstrated its crass ineptitude so expensively so many times.

[Courtney Mil]

And I am responsible for none of that. My words are not inhuman, and your overwrought post establishes your lack of perspective. Thanks for sharing your outrage. I sleep quite well, thanks, as I'm not the one gassing people. Save your ire for those who are.

No idea whether it's true, justified or otherwise, but that is a great answer.

If we look back into history, we recall reports in the early months of WW I that included
GERMANS BAYONET BELGIAN BABIES.
BELGIAN NUNS RAPED BY VICIOUS HUNS

Well, that's the Germans for you.

[Lazer-Hound]

Reports the Grauniad:

Syria crisis: warplanes spotted in Cyprus as tensions rise in Damascus | World news | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/26/syria-warplanes-cyprus-tensions-damascus)

[Lonewolf_50]

smuj:

Fifteen years ago, a planning assumption was made that Syria would get their hands on NK made, or Soviet made, extended range TBM's. (Scud and longer range theater class ballistic missiles). This informed some of the NATO planning and C2 architecture for air and surface radar programs.

Syria's current inventory includes various Scud versions, and a few of the NK made variants. From what I can gather in open source material, ranges are up to 550 km. I don't know if the later NK variants have boosters to increase that range. Been out of that game for a bit too long.

Cyprus is well within range, FWIW.

FWIW, and to answer my critic further up:

I tripped over this article (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/25/opinion/sunday/in-syria-america-loses-if-either-side-wins.html?_r=0)this afternoon, and it suggests that "Let 'em play" is the actual American strategy adopted by President Obama. I usually take Ed Luttwak with a grain of salt, but his article (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/25/opinion/sunday/in-syria-america-loses-if-either-side-wins.html?_r=0)may give you pause.

[500N]

I somehow doubt Syria would attack Cyprus, regardless if it was in range.

That really would incur a response and the Syria air defences are not
impregnable as shown by Israel.

[Ronald Reagan]

29sq the Typhoon OCU has deployed to Cyprus for a period of Summer training. Unlikely to be anything to do with Syria due to them being the OCU.

[Courtney Mil]

Agreed, 500N. And what on earth would they gain by attacking Cyprus? IF the West go in, they will have plenty to deal with without smacking a random, Mediterranean island.

[TEEEJ]

Lazer-Hound,

Further to Ronald's post

29 Squadron Exercise (http://www.raf.mod.uk/rafconingsby/newsweather/index.cfm?storyid=E93DBC12-5056-A318-A8BA4F4F3542554D)

[tartare]

When the US Secretary of State describes something as a moral obscenity (http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-secretary-of-state-john-kerry-warns-syria-after-obscene-strike-20130827-2smqb.html) that's a pretty good indication that a decision has been made to go in.
If air-strikes do follow the cruise missiles - then thoughts are with those flying in.
Those Pantsirs and Strelas look like nasty pieces of kit - let's hope they get as many of them as possible in the initial SEAD strike, or at least shut the radars down.

[smujsmith]

500N and Courtney,

I accept both of your arguments. I was asking about a Syrian reaction of "hit Akrotiri". You are both saying, "what would be the logic ?", but why should a leader like Assad follow a logical thought process ? I'm sure his threats of any attack would "end for America as Vietnam did" are a bit "overbloated". But seeing how mates Saddam and Gaddafi fared would his thinking go, "I'm buggered if they get me without I do them some damage" ? Hence my question, Cyprus is in range, an obvious target and also will be providing support to "coalition" forces. More importantly, an easier target, being fixed, than an American fleet. Like a few posters on this subject I wonder how Camoron and Co will explain our blackouts as the Russians switch our gas off. There's so many what ifs in this, its really worrying which way it goes.

Smudge

[500N]

Ree Syria's AD systems, I would have thought that the US at least
would have sought information from Israel about how they went
about it when they bombed the Nuclear Reactor. After all, it was
a very successful raid.

Smuj
By Cyrpus I meant the Air base only, not the whole island.
I am no expert so can only guess that he wouldn't do it even
if it was providing support. It just takes the whole thing to
another level and not sure he or the Russians would want that.
Just my HO.

[tartare]

I would suspect the US was pretty heavily involved in actually supplying the Suter algorithms and other technology to the IAF for the Reactor raid.
The technology to assume control of an AAD operators radar without them being aware was developed by BAe and the US Big Safari program.

[Finningley Boy]

I never fail to be intrigued by the desire of successive British Governments, from Blair to Cameron to seek a military resolve, by the U.S. and H.M. Forces, each time while seeking to reduce, what must now be, beyond the irreducible minimum H.M. Forces equipment, resource and manpower availability, for international policing of other countries. I suspect that this time around they'd better not get too far up Putin's nose or he'll do something stupid?!,

FB

[Easy Street]

I would be very surprised if Akrotiri plays any significant role in a theoretical combat operation against Syria, for the very reason that it is so open to attack by TBM and the huge complications that direct involvement in local hostilities would bring to the UK-Cyprus relationship. The US have plenty of bases of their own in the region (e.g. Souda Bay and Sigonella) which are outside TBM range but easily inside the combat radius (with AAR) of all likely participating aircraft. The UK could easily base its forces elsewhere in the region, as seen during the Libyan operations.

[tartare]

All - not sure how accurate this still is - but for those who are interested here's the SAAF orbat (http://www.scramblemagazine.nl/orbats/syria/airforce) already in the public domain.
Lists 22 airbases in all, including joint civil/military.

[JSFfan]

Wouldn't it be easier to shift the Israelis and go wind power?

[strake]

Whatever else happens, I'm pretty sure he won't attack Cyprus. Even with all the recent economic problems there, it's still Outer Moscow.

[ex_matelot]

the more i think about it the more im convinced that we are deliberately backing the bad eggs in opposition to the not quite as bad- so that when the country country goes to rat**** with various factions battling for power we will have more mandate to strole in as it suits, as opposed to doing it against a legitimate government.



Posted from Pprune.org App for Android

[Onceapilot]

Reading the exact comments of Cameron, Hague, Obama and Kerry I suspect that, unless there is a major change in the situation, a cruise missile strike on Air Defence infrastructre will go in on Sunday morning and a fixed wing SEAD Operation of limited extent will follow-on.:uhoh:
This will be followed by an attempt to establish a UN supported No-Fly zone.

Why else are the Western politicians softening up their populations?
Just my opinion.

OAP

[500N]

Do you reckon they will risk fixed wing aircraft where it is possible
one being downed ?

I just think the risk of that might be too high for this lot of pollies.

Could Cruize missiles do the job ?

[tartare]

That's what I wondered.
The Syrians seem to have quite a bit of kit - that'd be a lot of cruise missiles to take it all out... and even one of those Pantsir things missed could create a lot of pain - wasn't that the type that shot down the Turkish F4?
Then there's all the Iglas and other manpad bits and pieces...

[Tinman74]

Will we be relying on the USA to recover downed aircrew?

[500N]

Would they go after the air bases or just the Air defence systems ?

Of the 22 air bases, take out any joint civilian / military bases
and any that are close to Chemical weapon storages (just my HO),
what does that leave ?

Then the question is, does the US want to only take out equipment
or also Military people ?

My guess would be take out equipment only as much as possible.

[Bergerie1]

For once the Daily Mail has got it right:-
Immature advisers, moral indignation and the folly of wading into this bloody morass | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2402329/Immature-advisers-moral-indignation-folly-wading-bloody-morass.html)

[500N]

"He has VX which is a whole lot worse. Maybe he is keeping that for Israel."


In view of the fact that Israel has already conducted a very successful pin point
bombing mission into the far side of Syria with no loss, I really don't think Syria is going to risk incurring the wrath of Israel even if they say they will as they have done.

I don't think Israel would hold back if they did.

They have the aircraft, ability to Jam, skill, weapons, bombs and missiles
and I reckon would turn various parts of Syria and it's military into smoking hulks without skipping a heart beat.

Just my HO.

[air pig]

If he drops anything on Israel, Damascus will be a nice new piece of glass along with the rest of Syria. The Jewish religion and its people have suffered enough in the way of pogroms in the past 100 years, the slaughter of millions in an industrial scale, do you think they would sit back and allow someone to throw Sarin/VX at them.

In the words of the Israeli PM after Operation Yontan in 1982, if we had acceded to the demand s of handing over prisoners, the world would have understood but few respected as it is the world does not understand us but all will respect us. The Israeli state of mind by being surrounded by either enemies or the sea.

Akrotiri movements maybe an APC from the OCU and force dispersal, wouldn't you if the threat from air attack was real.

[ORAC]

Washington Post: Syria will require more than cruise missiles (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/syria-will-require-more-than-cruise-missiles/2013/08/25/8c8877b8-0daf-11e3-85b6-d27422650fd5_story.html)

Eliot A. Cohen teaches at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He directed the U.S. Air Force’s Gulf War Air Power Survey from 1991 to 1993.

[alemaobaiano]

Eclectic

The simple fact is that Assad has been using Sarin, white phosphorous and Scud missiles against civilians since March. All illegal. He must be suprised that the West has suddenly taken notice.

You keep repeating that statement, but as

The White House said

it must be true, right? The WH have never lied to the world over their reasons for attacking other countries.

Now I'm really intrigued about your postings. Do you actually believe what you post or are you simply working to an agenda?

I do like the clipping you posted though.

[VinRouge]

Can I ask, what is the difference between kids getting gassed to death by either party and kids being shelled to death by either party?

Its the same outcome, why the moralistic line in the sand just because chemical weapons have been used?

Seems a little bit timely all of this, the west stepping in just as Assad is taking the upper hand. All we will end up doing is delaying the stalemate. More death, more suffering.

[Trim Stab]

I just want to see some proof that the chemical attacks were ordered by the Syrian government. I haven't seen any proof yet - just lots of assumptions and brash statements by western governments, whipped up by some press outlets.

Also, I would like to see what the objectives of any action are, and what planning for the aftermath is in place.

[BEagle]

So, Call-me-Dave is drawing up military options, we hear...

Perhaps some surveillance Nimrods to Souda or Akrotiri and Invincible with Sea Harriers in the Eastern Med.....:mad:

[Ronald Reagan]

If Cameron, Hague, Hollander and Obama do engage in military action I hope they will all be removed come the next election, I hope the Democrats lose badly in the midterms, that's about the only way he can be punished!
Shame Cameron and Hague will likely retain their seats as MPs, they do not deserve to! They do deserve to lose power though. Labour are no better what with their war record.
I would imagine Hollander will lose anyhow.
If they do engage in military action without full UN backing they should be arrested and charged with war crimes.

[tartare]

Kerry has said more will be revealed in the next day or so.
Suspect the NSA will already know exactly what the inspectors et al have found - and there'll be other intel as well.
Syrian Foreign Minister now live on BBC World saying we didn't do it.
I would have thought they wouldn't want to wait until the end of the week to go in though - Syrian forces and other targets would be too widely dispersed?
R.e outcomes or exit plans - wars aren't like off the shelf products.
"After 90 days, guaranteed to revert to stable two party democracy, or your money back."
Ambiguity/instability is inevitable afterwards.

[Trim Stab]

Suspect the NSA will already know exactly what the inspectors et al have found - and there'll be other intel as well.

Yes, but how accurate? We have already seen the readiness of western governments to twist intelligence to suit their needs (our dodgy dossier - Powell's "uranium" claims at UN).

I doubt that Assad ordered this - he would have far more to lose than to gain. It is possible that some element of Syrian army carried out the attack without authorisation, but it seems that their command and control is still more or less functional so this seems unlikely. I can easily believe, however, that some elements of the opposition may have made this attack in the hope of drawing in western air-strikes on Assad...

[Cows getting bigger]

Beages, no need for that. The UK can just stage out of Akrotiri with a few VC10 tankers allowing more time on task. :eek:

[Dunky]

I'm not sure what anyone can do. War is a dirty business, and whoever takes action, people are going to die, that's the nature of the beast. The Arab League won't take any action, Russia is supporting Assad, and arming him, Russia, and China will veto any UN resolution, which leaves the world unable to act. Should the UN manage to pass a resolution, which I think highly improbable, the UK should definitely stay out of it, there are other countries closer to the problem that should be tackling it. I would also say the US and UK do not want to get involved in another war, especially in the Middle East. The cost in human terms, financially, and politically, (both domestically, and internationally),are too much to bear.

As for what kind of military intervention, should this actually go ahead, a difficult question. Syria is not Iraq, and they have a capable air defence network, (though Israel managed to get through it), modern weapons, (supplied by Russia), and motivated troops. Troops on the ground with an invasion would be a very bloody affair, and almost certainly won't happen. A no fly zone enforced by manned aircraft would also be very costly. The only viable solution is using stand off weapons, like the TLAM. You may have noticed in the news recently HMS Tireless surfacing off Gibraltar. Some have commented on it being related to the dispute we're involved with Spain over Gibraltar, I suspect it's more to do with Syria, and showing Assad one of our assets.

Whatever happens, one thing that's guaranteed to happen is innocent Syrians getting killed, by one side or the other, but mainly by Assad.

[Ronald Reagan]

Can parliament block Camerloon and co from going to war if they wish?

[Melchett01]

I can't help but feel we are deliberately being drawn into this. The Syrian opposition have been pleading for some form of substantive help for months now, but their confused C2 and hopelessly tangled relationships with various extremist elements have put many western governments off becoming involved. Afterall, nobody wants to spend time hunting down extremists in Afghanistan and other locations around the Middle East only to find you have actually been backing them in Syria.

With that in mind, I do hope the politicians have / will pause for a moment and take a deep breath before committing more military resources we can scarcely afford. If Obama et al have publically put down a very clear red line about the use of CW etc, Assad would have to be daft to do something he knows will attract a response option. He may be a psychopathic dictator, but stupid he isn't. So just who would benefit from a massive CW attack and associated publicity? I'm sure the more extremist elements, along with the exasperated moderate elements wouldn't dream of carrying out such an attack for the good of the cause. Right???

All the press reporting suggests that our Intel agencies have been keeing an eye on Assad's CW stores. But if the opposition includes foreign fighters and AQ linked extremists (Al Nusrah Front / Bde) what is to stop them sourcing a number of CW devices externally and bringing them in country? Who's to say that any CW attack wasn't launced by a renegade commander or possibly one that has defected fomr the Regime?

Trying to apportion blame by finding evidence that can be substantiated to the level of proof likely required to get any form of UN backing will be damn nigh impossible to find. Even if you could find it, there are far too many questions that cast a degree of doubt that need answering.

And assuming, as looks likely from the press reporting today, that a strike goes ahead, to what end? IF a CW attack was carried out by Assad's forces, what will a few TLAMs achieve? On their own, nothing. It won't stop the Air Force flying and even if it did, it won't stop the Army using CW should they decide to do so. To achieve the degree of "protection of the innocents" being demanded by our liberal politicians will require more than a TLAM salvo; it will require a long term commitment to becoming involved in Syria and the losses that will entail. And I don't think the politicians will have the stomach for that once the body count starts mounting. And I don't think they will have the stomach to deal with whatever regime replaces Assad's mob if they topple him.

On the other hand, I'm fairly sure that the various single Service Chiefs, who have seen their Forces slashed in recent years, will be quite happy to argue the case for going in. It shows they are relevant and timely and therefore shouldn't be slashed any further, whilst a few losses, which will probably be deemed acceptable and manageable behind closed doors can be used to justify why they need additional spending.

I had to study a Philosophy module as part of General Studies all those years ago, and in it was described a school of Philosophy (I forget which) that suggested human beings only act out of their own self interest. If you help a little old lady with her bags of shopping across the road, you aren't doing it because it's the right thing to do, you do it because it will make you feel good knowing you have helped, whilst walking on by will make you feel guilty for not assisting. Either way, you help her across the road ultimately for your own emotional benefit. I'm sorry to say that the Syrian opposition is that little old lady. The calls for active involvement in Syria are coming loud and clear from the liberal elements of the political world, those who like to feel good - or should I say don't want to feel guilty. Syria is a mess. Until they want to get round the table and talk the fighting will continue with or without our involvement. We would do well not to be drawn into another military conflict in the Middle East; I can't be alone in sensing that this is all a bit too convenient and elements are trying to draw us in for their own neffarious reasons.

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Very well stated Melchett. You have put into some eloquent words exactly what I was thinking!

It seems that the vast majority of the people on this forum totally disagree with any military action by the US or UK.

[Ubehagligpolitiker]

A letter in the FT from a Mr KN Al-Sabah neatly sums up the problem:

"Sir, Iran is backing Assad. Gulf states are against Assad!

Assad is against Muslim Brotherhood. Muslim Brotherhood and Obama are against General Sisi. But Gulf states are pro-Sisi! Which means they are against Muslim Brotherhood!

Iran is pro-Hamas. But Hamas is backing Muslim Brotherhood!

Obama is backing Muslim Brotherhood, yet Hamas is against the US!

Gulf states are pro-US. But Turkey is with Gulf states against Assad; yet Turkey is pro-Muslim Brotherhood against General Sisi. And General Sisi is being backed by the Gulf states!

Welcome to the Middle East and have a nice day."

[Lonewolf_50]

1. Regime member families have been leaving Syria for safe haven in Lebanon.
2. Assad has been dispersing his forces to reduce their vulnerability to attack.
3. Greece has made bases and facilities available to USA forces.
4. Israel preparing for gas attack.
5. The simple fact is that Assad has been using Sarin, white phosphorous and Scud missiles against civilians since March. All illegal.
Point 5: false. Use of Scuds is not illegal, unless you arm them with chem. No evidence that Scuds with chem have been used. Also, use of WP is not inherently illegal, though its deliberate use as an AP round is often considered so.

Point 1. Rats, sinking ship, leaving.
Point 2. He's not stupid.
Point 3. This is not news. There's an organization called NATO.
Point 4. Aren't they always? :p

Your credibility isn't all that strong. Deliberate use of WP on a civilian concentration ... is that the red line President Obama was talking about? I doubt it, as that hasn't entered the public noise machine ... yet.

VINROUGE:
Can I ask, what is the difference between kids getting gassed to death by either party and kids being shelled to death by either party? Its the same outcome, why the moralistic line in the sand just because chemical weapons have been used?
Good question, but Chem Weapons have been a touchy thing internationally since WW I. They are a special case.
Seems a little bit timely all of this, the West stepping in just as Assad is taking the upper hand. All we will end up doing is delaying the stalemate. More death, more suffering.
If you go back a few pages to the piece by Edward Luttwak that I linked, and go qutie a few pages back to some commentary on how "Machivellian" some critics deem President Obama to be, maybe his strategy is to keep this civil war running as it will expose various parties to risk and embarassment ... but not him. Hezbollah have popped their heads out of their prairie dog holes. Setting them up for a face shot? Iran is getting involved more deeply in aiding Assad. Setting them up for a riposte? There are a hell of a lot of moving parts in this thing.
Trim Stab:
I doubt that Assad ordered this - he would have far more to lose than to gain. It is possible that some element of Syrian army carried out the attack without authorisation, but it seems that their command and control is still more or less functional so this seems unlikely. I can easily believe, however, that some elements of the opposition may have made this attack in the hope of drawing in western air-strikes on Assad.
The bolded part is, I think, the most rational explanation.

It is not out of the realm of possibility that Assad had one of his local guys do this to send a message to the opposition, the message being: "we have top cover from Russia, we can do what we like, the West won't help you ... so suck on this one." Or words to that effect.

I don't know how realistic that assessment is.

I do think he's getting some under the table support from Putin and his friends, who do like sticking a finger in the eye of Obama. For all of the Americans who dislike Obama, it seems to me that the Russians in general dislike him even more ... and not just because he's the US president. For one, he's seen as soft on Islamist radicals. For two, they don't like his complexion. For three, they've seen him back down when pushed.