Here it comes: Syria

[dead_pan]

Yes, that prospect was raised by a BBC journo this morning. Its going to be hellishly difficult to supervise the collection and removal of this kit in the middle of a war.

[air pig]

Dead pan:

Yes, that prospect was raised by a BBC journo this morning. Its going to be hellishly difficult to supervise the collection and removal of this kit in the middle of a war.

I think that comment is British understatement, hellishly difficult is more like bloody impossible in the middle of an active war zone. If it is removed, how do you verify you have it all, where do you store it, is there a facility to destroy it and who does it and who secures it prior to destruction.

[Eclectic]

It is just a red herring. A delaying tactic.
Assad will never allow intrusive enforcement.
And he will insist on lots of conditions.
Perhaps he will request all states stop their aid to the opposition (military or otherwise), and engage the US in confidence building, ie a couple of tons out of Syria every month in exchange for the above mentioned actions. Putin, Iran, and the UN will perceive such actions to be positive and continue supporting a diplomatic solution.
Putin and Assad will twist this into an Assad wins situation. Lots of Sunnis and Kurds will die.
And at the end of the process Assad will still have lots of chemical weapons.

Obama should launch tonight whilst he still has some surprise.

[air pig]

Eclectic:

It is just a red herring. A delaying tactic.
Assad will never allow intrusive enforcement.
And he will insist on lots of conditions.
Perhaps he will request all states stop their aid to the opposition (military or otherwise), and engage the US in confidence building, ie a couple of tons out of Syria every month in exchange for the above mentioned actions. Putin, Iran, and the UN will perceive such actions to be positive and continue supporting a diplomatic solution.
Putin and Assad will twist this into an Assad wins situation. Lots of Sunnis and Kurds will die.
And at the end of the process Assad will still have lots of chemical weapons.

Obama should launch tonight whilst he still has some surprise.

You really have an axe to grind here, almost warmongering. Reflect if you fire on Syria, what do you achieve, if anything, what exit strategy do you have and as I have said before dying by a burst of AK 47, artillery barrage or by Sarin, you just as DEAD. This is an internal, inter-religious factional war, of which I want my country to have NO part.

[NutLoose]

You could just launch it all into the med :E

That's got to be a nightmare job, recovering that little lot in the middle of a war, no doubt somewhere along the line Hague will be volunteering the Army to go in to get it and the RAF to fly it out.

[Lonewolf_50]

Practical problems in re removal of Syrian stockpile of chem weapons, and whatever remains of it as of this writing ...

1. How does one confirm where "it all is?"
2. How does one control shipment of it out of Syria, during a civil war?
3. How does one detect some of it going astray?
4. Who is charged with protecting the movements to container ship in whatever port is chosen. (Do you ship it all to Jordan over land? :eek: )

Answers on a post card.

[Eclectic]

Just like I predicted: REUTERS: Putin says Syria chemical weapons handover will only work if US rejects use of force.

Conditions, conditions, conditions.
Putin and Assad have no good intentions, just narrow self interest. They are playing the West.

And the elephant in the room is Iran. With Obama a dead duck the road is clear for the mad mullahs to go nuclear. Which they would be very happy to use.

btw Assad has about 1,000 tons of chemical agents and Sarin has a lethal concentration for 1 minute exposure of 0.1 to 0.07 mg per human. So he can kill everyone on planet earth several times over.

[Ronald Reagan]

Hopefully the Russians can get a resolution through the security council which does not have any mention of military action in it, the French one is full of threats. Seems a bad way to go about it. Good job we have Putin the peacemaker on the the case, great man that he is.

[NutLoose]

Still got the thumb screw on huh.

[Broadsword***]

The US, UK and France are to table a UN Security Council resolution but Russia has already indicated opposition.

The resolution will call on Syria to publicly declare that it has a chemical weapons programme, place it under international control and dismantle it.

But French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said he had spoken on Tuesday to Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, who told him that Moscow was not in favour of a binding UN resolution.

BBC News - Syria conflict: US issues warning on chemicals plan (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24038120)

So it appears Assad will continue to get Russia's unconditional support, no matter what he does (or does not do).

[dead_pan]

REUTERS: Putin says Syria chemical weapons handover will only work if US rejects use of force

Well what a surprise. That particular piece of smallprint is going to be a deal-breaker, I fear. Time to start marching back up the hill.

[Toadstool]

With Obama a dead duck the road is clear for the mad mullahs to go nuclear. Which they would be very happy to use.

Where did you get this inside knowledge? Have IRAN got the bomb now? Have they stated that they will use it?

[Broadsword***]

UN resolution on Syria to test if Russian chemical weapons plan is 'ruse' | World news | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/10/un-resolution-syria-russia-chemical-weapons)

From 'Putin the peacemaker' to 'Putin the peace faker' in the space of 24 hours. He ain't all that smart.

[ShotOne]

This is a no-lose deal from our point of view; whichever side wins there, we don't want them having sarin etc. And it doesn't necessarily stop those who feel that lobbing in a load of missiles will solve things from doing so at some later date if they really want to.

[Eclectic]

@Toadstool

Iran nuclear (http://www.debka.com/search/tag/Iran%20nuclear/)

Iran nuclear - Haaretz | Israel News (http://www.haaretz.com/misc/tags/Iran%20nuclear-1.476777)

Iran's Nuclear Program (http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/iran/nuclear_program/index.html)

[Toadstool]

Ah yes of course, my misunderstanding. It is a fact that they have nuclear reactors and would more than likely wish to obtain a nuclear weapon. I wasn't aware that they had a death wish and had stated that they would be more than happy to use such a weapon if they had it.

[Eclectic]

C&P:

JUST IN: U.S. House Democrat Chris van Hollen just told me on CNN International that a proposed House resolution on Syria would give the president 30 days to work out a credible plan on chemical weapons before he would be allowed to use military force.

“There are thirty days, and in that thirty days the president can continue to try to work out the solution. If after thirty days the president says that we have either secured that chemical stockpile or that’s there’s a credible plan to do it, then you would not proceed with limited force. But if makes another determination, he would be allowed to go forward.”
CNN

[Courtney Mil]

(Post 1450) Answers on a post card.

See my post 1489 - a bit tongue in cheek, but an element of truth. http://www.pprune.org/8040658-post1489.html

As for you "I'd rather be lucky than good", it got me through 30 years in the RAF and my fast jet years. :ok:

[racedo]

Interesting map:

http://images1.ynet.co.il/PicServer3.../4851307/3.jpg (http://images1.ynet.co.il/PicServer3/2013/09/09/4851307/3.jpg)

This is big and detailed so resizing it would reduce its value.
Also I am not hosting it.

FAKE

Date of production of map FEB 2012.

[Eclectic]

Why does "Date of production of map FEB 2012" make it fake?

Someone has taken a commercial map and added the data. You can do that sort of stuff these days with computers.

[Pontius Navigator]

white knight to black bishop

If I were Putin, having Assad agree in principle to putting CW into International supervision, I would have my guys in on the ground yesterday as a Russian element of the international monitoring team.

With one stroke that would inhibit any US strike anywhere in Syria.

check mate in 2.

[500N]

PN

A very good point. That would stump Obama for good.

And by doing so it also gives him a strong say in the leadership
of any group.

[Eclectic]

Obama says he doesn't want to change the balance of power on the ground.
Putin is changing the balance on the ground by delivering lots of shiny new kit.
Qatar will respond with a few hundred tons more of ATGMs.
Soon all the world's T-72s will be smoking hulks.
There will be a good scrap metal business to be had after Assad loses and the subsequent civil war is over.

This is a numbers game. There are few Alawites and lots of Sunnis.
Already Assad is using lots of foreign fighters. He would be finished already if it wasn't for Hezbollah and the Iranians.
Ironically his propaganda always goes on about the rebels being foreigners when he uses many times the number.

[henra]

Assad has possibly the biggest chemical warfare stocks in the world. Mustard, Sarin and VX. He has built a huge missile force to deliver this into Israel. Perhaps 2,000 ballistic missiles.


Hmmm, where have I only heard this kind of logic/argument before?
Ah yes, WMD....

The remainder of his presidency will see the ascendency of the powers for harm in the world. Russia, Iran, North Korea.


By what measure are these countries the powers of harm in the world?
How many countries have been invaded by them?
How many people have been killed by them?

We might not like them for their Statements/positions and whom they support but when looking at the boring facts, it is not so easy to prove that they are the worst aggressors and the true evil out there.
Unfortunately in the last 10 years other Nations have been much more agressive in using Military force upon other Nations (even if we assume good intentions).
And if we look at who supports really dangerous/evil (by our standards) groups, we unfortunately can't deny that 'friendly' middle eastern countries belong to the worst offenders in that regard.
Your picture of the World appears to be enviably simplistic.

[henra]

btw Assad has about 1,000 tons of chemical agents and Sarin has a lethal concentration for 1 minute exposure of 0.1 to 0.07 mg per human. So he can kill everyone on planet earth several times over.

If everyone drinks/eats it.

You should go to a psychiatrist.
Or become politician... :E

[Eclectic]

Sarin and VX can both kill by inhalation or absorption through the skin.

[henra]

Sarin and VX can both kill by inhalation or absorption through the skin.


Sure, but you need to inhale the net amount you mentioned.

To achive the necessary ppm in a given volume of air you need much much more when you dispense it.
So you can't do the simple Maths you did if you want to know realistically how many people you will kill with a certain arsenal of warheads filled with Sarin.

In the instance where the 500-1000 People in Syria were killed you can assume they (whoever it was) used a collective amount of dozens or rather hundreds of kg.
According to your calc, 100 mg would have been enough for that.
There is a factor of >10^6 (or 1 Million, to make it more appreciable) between the two.
And that is what I wanted to point out.

[Lonewolf_50]

Henra, please stop confusing him with science.

He also may not be aware that to win a firefight, one may need to equip one's soldiers with more than one bullet per enemy combatant, particularly in MOUT/Urban Combat. :E

[Eclectic]

The point I was trying to make is that Assad's chemical arsenal is very substantial. If loaded into his 2,000 ballistic missiles and fired at a few cities the casualties would be horrendous.

[Lonewolf_50]

The point I was trying to make is that Assad's chemical arsenal is very substantial. If loaded into his 2,000 ballistic missiles and fired at a few
cities the casualties would be horrendous.
Do you think anyone in this conversation is unaware of that? You may not realize that a lot of people who post on this forum understand weapons and military stuff very, very well.

Here is another obvious statement:

The Israeli nuclear arsenal is potentially lethal.
If they fired their warheads on missiles to seventy or eighty cities, the carnage would be terrible.

True, but so what?

[Toadstool]

The Israeli nuclear arsenal is potentially lethal.
If they fired their warheads on missiles to seventy or eighty cities, the carnage would be terrible.

True, but so what? :D

Exactly. We can all use suppositions based on 'what ifs'.

[racedo]

Lonewolfe

Come on you know its just a computer game you can turn off and go to bed or perhaps that is how some people see it.

Interesting Sky showing a Syrian Christian family funeral and what they saying.......mostly they have been ignored. Winds of change occurring.

[Toadstool]

The irony of the situation now is that one of the main reasons there has been such vociferous disagreement with action against Syria, is that any action may have involved, at some time, boots on the ground. Obama has said time and time again that this would not happen once limited action had taken place.

How do you imagine we will gain access to and secure these CWs if this is now the solution that everyone wants? With boots on the ground of course. IMHO if this is the case, so as to appease the West and Russia, perhaps we should encourage the Arab League, less Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to provide these boots if needed.

[500N]

Interesting headline in our newspapers here re Assad's interview.

"Assad warns US to 'expect everything'
US bases could face 'every action' including chemical warfare if it attacks Syria, warns President Bashar al-Assad in an interview with CBS television."

Would he say that without meaning it ?


Would he have run it past Putin first ?

[NutLoose]

Would that be a good idea? One would have thought having the Arab League overseeing the removal and storage of such weapons is perhaps the last people you would want involved.

At least the West has a proven record of destroying their stockpiles, all be it a tad slow in some cases.

I somehow think that if Syria did use chemical weapons against US bases, there wouldn't be a whole lot left standing in Syria.

I thought Obama's speech tonight came across well

"The US military do not do pinpricks" lol.

[tartare]

Yes - that was a great line.
This whole `we'll hand over the sarin' thing is just b^llsh1t.
Sure they will... how long will it take?
And all of it?
They couldn't even leave a couple of UN inspectors alone - yet they're going to:
a) allow some kind of third party in to drive around and collect it or destroy it?
b) bring it all to a border somewhere and hand it over?
And all in the middle of a vicious civil war.
What's the plan here?
Deny, divert, delay... the best negotiating strategy of all.

[Pontius Navigator]

perhaps we should encourage the Arab League, less Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to provide these boots if needed.

But who would wear these boots?

I read a very interesting novel, a novel it is true, but it centred on a Dubai policeman who was a native of Dubai. He was an exception as most Dubai police were imports from many countries including Syria.

I believe that most of the Gulf States use imported labour so would they have enough boots they really want to put on the ground?

[NutLoose]

Nasty stutter there PN.

[ORAC]

Obama’s Next Foreign-Policy Team (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner)

............It was the most predictable speech of Barack Obama’s presidency. He spent 15 minutes pretending that he was master and commander driving Syria policy. The truth is the Oval Office has been dragged into the middle of war it desperately wanted to avoid.

But events have landed the president in a bad place. It is clear he doesn’t have the confidence of the Congress. He probably couldn’t even get a resolution through the Senate, a chamber controlled by his own party. Asking Congress to postpone the vote was a transparent, face-saving measure. If failing to command Congress wasn’t bad enough, the president also knows he got played by the Russians, who will spin their unworkable “diplomatic” solution into an opportunity to amp up their military support for the Assad regime.

Spin aside, Mr. Obama knows he had a bad night — and he knows whom to blame.

The president’s second-term foreign policy team is very different from those in place during his first four years in the Oval Office. John Kerry, in particular, has muscularly poked his nose in places the president would have rather left alone. Kerry was the chief cheerleader for humanitarian intervention in Syria. When Britain bailed and Obama sent his envoys to the Hill to make the case for military intervention, Kerry and crew arguably made things worse. After days of briefing Congress, the administration found it had less support than when it started.

Kerry also wound up being the source of the Kremlin’s biggest foreign-policy coup since Napoleon gave up on taking Moscow.

When all is said and done, it is hard to not see Kerry as Obama’s Al Haig. It is also difficult to see how Kerry makes it to the end of the term. Obama doesn’t like making foreign policy on any terms other than his own. Kerry put him off his game, and Kerry is most likely to pay the price for the Syria fiasco.

Don’t be surprised if sometime in the near future the secretary decides he wants to spend more time on his yacht.

[500N]

ORAC

Two interesting, if slightly biased articles on Obama / Putin / Syria
in the Daily Mail.

None very complimentary to Obama but they do sum it up well.


MAX HASTINGS: The humiliation of Obama as Putin swaggers on his Moscow dunghill | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2416963/MAX-HASTINGS-The-humiliation-Obama-Putin-swaggers-Moscow-dunghill.html)


Obama sides with accidental diplomacy over military threats on Syria in critical speech that will determine his credibility and America's global standing | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2417065/Obama-sides-accidental-diplomacy-military-threats-Syria-critical-speech-determine-credibility-Americas-global-standing.html)


Obama's military plan falls apart as Syria accepts Russian proposal to give up chemical weapons -- an idea the administration floated by ACCIDENT | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2416735/Obamas-military-plan-falls-apart-Syria-accepts-Russian-proposal-chemical-weapons--idea-administration-floated-ACCIDENT.html)

[ShotOne]

Before we give Obama or Kerry too hard a time about this it is worth reflecting that the fully justified scepticism of Congress stems directly from Iraq and its dodgy dossiers and known unknowns.

Anyone who still feels it is a simple case of goodies versus baddies really ought to read the account of Domenico Quirico, Italian journo just released from the clutches of various factions of the Free Syrian Army. They are utterly vile! Most worryingly for us, the only time he was treated with a scrap of humanity was when in the hands of Al Qaeda!

[glojo]

Before we give Obama or Kerry too hard a time about this it is worth reflecting that the fully justified scepticism of Congress stems directly from Iraq and its dodgy dossiers and known unknowns.

Anyone who still feels it is a simple case of goodies versus baddies really ought to read the account of Domenico Quirico, Italian journo just released from the clutches of various factions of the Free Syrian Army. They are utterly vile! Most worryingly for us, the only time he was treated with a scrap of humanity was when in the hands of Al Qaeda! The atrocities being committed by the rebels does not make pleasant reading and hopefully those that have committed the evil, barbaric atrocities will be held accountable?

This will only ever be done if the Syrian Government forces prevail, but who is backing what side?

We all know where Russia stands and who they are supporting but why in all that is sane is America helping to train the rebel forces?

Bishops being murdered, Christian churches raised to the ground, video footage of rebels mutilating the bodies of government troops and eating their innards!!! And American forces TRAINING THEM!!!!! What has happened to our leaders? How low can we get and haven't we learnt anything from the lies and deceit of our previous governments? I fear we are best off letting the Syrians sort out their own affairs and we should be keeping our hands in our pockets (thinking of all that foreign aid we give to Syria)

[Eclectic]

New UN report just released. Summary:

The Syrian Arab Republic is a battlefield. Its cities and towns suffer relentless shelling and sieges. Massacres are perpetrated with impunity. An untold number of Syrians have disappeared. The present report covers investigations conducted from 15 May to 15 July 2013. Its findings are based on 258 interviews and other collected evidence.
Government and pro-government forces have continued to conduct widespread attacks on the civilian population, committing murder, torture, rape and enforced disappearance as crimes against humanity. They have laid siege to neighbourhoods and subjected them to indiscriminate shelling. Government forces have committed gross violations of human rights and the war crimes of torture, hostage-taking, murder, execution without due process, rape, attacking protected objects and pillage.
Anti-government armed groups have committed war crimes, including murder, execution without due process, torture, hostage-taking and attacking protected objects. They have besieged and indiscriminately shelled civilian neighbourhoods.
Anti-government and Kurdish armed groups have recruited and used child soldiers in hostilities.
The perpetrators of these violations and crimes, on all sides, act in defiance of international law. They do not fear accountability. Referral to justice is imperative.
There is no military solution to this conflict. Those who supply arms create but an illusion of victory. A political solution founded upon tenets of the Geneva communiqué is the only path to peace.

[tartare]

Get the Syrians to move well away from the Sarin storage areas.
Let the Americans into bomb the sh1t out of the facilities.
The US gets it's airstrikes, the Sarin is disposed of and there's minimal collateral damage!
I'm being sarcastic by the way...
Current suggestions seem to be that the `handover' of the CWs would have to be a ground based third party collection and destruction of said weapons.
So - who would protect the collectors eh?
Might require boots on the ground!!
Pathetic, just pathetic.

[Roland Pulfrew]

Soon all the world's T-72s will be smoking hulks.
There will be a good scrap metal business to be had after Assad loses and the subsequent civil war is over.

This is a numbers game. There are few Alawites and lots of Sunnis.
Already Assad is using lots of foreign fighters. He would be finished already if it wasn't for Hezbollah and the Iranians.
Ironically his propaganda always goes on about the rebels being foreigners when he uses many times the number.

Eclectic, are you sure you aren't in Aleppo rather than Coventry? You seem to be a great propagandist for the islamic terrorists of the world. You might just as well say that without foreign fighters in the "FSA" then they would have been finished already. Without the UAE/SA supplying AT weapons the FSA would be finished already.

Syria was a secular society before this "uprising" by a small minority - how can you be so sure that a majority of Syrians aren't/weren't happy with the status quo. After all they had freedom of religion, education, healthcare and a reasonable standard of living under Assad. Maybe they look at what happened in Iraq and Libya and decided that the devil you know......

The west have backed the wrong side on this one, just as we did in Egypt and Libya, and all based on the illusion of democracy. Maybe democracy, like most creeds/cultures/empires, has had its day.

[Pontius Navigator]

I have noticed something interesting in recent photos and video from Syria.

While the images show devastated buildings, ruins etc etc, I notice that all the debris has been swept from the streets and look better swept and in better condition than many in peaceful UK.

Someone is cleaning the streets

[Broadsword***]

Eclectic, are you sure you aren't in Aleppo rather than Coventry?

And I'm pretty sure 'Ronald Reagan' is nearer to Moscow than Truro.

[Lonewolf_50]

Yes - that was a great line.
This whole `we'll hand over the sarin' thing is just b^llsh1t.
Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. Depends on how seriously the Russians take it.
Sure they will... how long will it take? And all of it?
If the UN is involved, about a decade. Point of Reference, Iraq.
They couldn't even leave a couple of UN inspectors alone - yet they're going to:
a) allow some kind of third party in to drive around and collect it or
destroy it?
b) bring it all to a border somewhere and hand it over?
More likely B.
And all in the middle of a vicious civil war.
Aye, there's the rub. How do you secure the convoys? Major issue and a major difficuty.
What's the plan here?
There isn't one yet. There's a rough strategy and not even a CONOPS to refer to. A few weeks or months getting things sorted out at the UN and Arab League seems to be the next item on the agenda ...
Deny, divert, delay... the best negotiating strategy of all.
That too.

But on the bright side, something has started.
If it took a threat of blowing stuff up to get a process started, however imperfect, maybe all of this noise was worth it.

And, maybe it's all a load of noise to no good end.

[Lonewolf_50]

Syria was a secular society before this "uprising" by a small minority - how can you be so sure that a majority of Syrians aren't/weren't happy with the status quo.
The protests suggest they were not. The demonstrations preceded the civil war. Civil war seems to have been a sequel to government overreaction to the protests over a variety of domestic issues, to include water allocation.
After all they had freedom of religion, education, healthcare and a reasonable standard of living under Assad. Maybe they look at what happened in Iraq and Libya and decided that the devil you know.
One wonders: who was behind the protests, and the follow up, and were they foreign agitators from, say, Saudi or Qatar?
No idea, but it's not as though intrigue and dirty dealing in that part of the world is rare. :p
The west have backed the wrong side on this one, just as we did in Egypt and Libya, and all based on the illusion of democracy. Maybe democracy, like most creeds/cultures/empires, has had its day.
If so, I weep for the world. Recall what Churchill said about democracy:

"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time." (from a House of Commons speech on Nov. 11, 1947) So he lost the election and made the following observation: "They have a perfect right to kick me out. That is democracy".

Until the leaders of the Arab World, and idiots like Hugo Chavez (may he rot in the grave) take that same attitude, a lot of the world won't have democracy.

Eclectic:
From the UN summary
A political solution founded upon tenets of the Geneva communiqué is the only path to peace.
No, it's not the only path to peace. If Assad finally puts down the rebellion, I suspect that peace will return. In Syrian terms, a Peace like the infamous Hama peace edict of his father. :p

glojo:
And American forces TRAINING THEM
glojo, there is no evidence that American forces are training the Al Q nuts, nor the liver eating bastidges. Some of the FSA factions are not quite as extreme as the ones who make headlines.

YOU are leaping to a conclusion there.

That said, I suspect that some of the Gulf Allies (Saudis, Qatar) America has are arming and funding no few of the unsavory scumbags in Syria. Turkey may also be doing the same.

Old news, really. Saudi Arabia has been a source of Islamist / Mujahadeen funding for decades.

[Ronald Reagan]

Ancient Syria's Christian village freed from jihadist siege - military to RT ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/syria-christian-village-freed-711/)

[TomJoad]

Just like I predicted: REUTERS: Putin says Syria chemical weapons handover will only work if US rejects use of force.

Conditions, conditions, conditions.
Putin and Assad have no good intentions, just narrow self interest. They are playing the West.

And the elephant in the room is Iran. With Obama a dead duck the road is clear for the mad mullahs to go nuclear. Which they would be very happy to use.

btw Assad has about 1,000 tons of chemical agents and Sarin has a lethal concentration for 1 minute exposure of 0.1 to 0.07 mg per human. So he can kill everyone on planet earth several times over.

Ecletic, you are wasted here fella, what you doing posting on a public website - get yourself off to MI6 for a rewarding career and handsome salary.:}

On second thoughts: elephants in the room, dead ducks and mad mullahs maybe you could copy for the Daily Mail or the Sun:ok:

[Robert Cooper]

It appears that Putin will dictate the terms of any UN Security Council Resolution calling for the collection and destruction of chemical weapons in Syria. I guess we have no real option but to accept and trust that Russia’s terms for collecting and destroying those chemical weapons will succeed.

Middle East Live reports:
“Russia is working on an effective, concrete plan for putting Syria’s chemical weapons under international control and is discussing the details with Damascus, according to the latest announcement from its foreign minister Sergei Lavrov. Lavrov also told reporters the plan would be presented to other nations soon .”

Russia’s Foreign Minister is quoted as saying that after Russia and Syria work out the details of their chemical weapons offer they will then be ready to finalize the plan together with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).

The Russian draft resolution will certainly be interesting to see, and time is certainly of the essence whilst those chemical weapons are not under international control.

Bob C

[Lonewolf_50]

Progress, or smoke screen?

Let's check back in a few weeks and see what's what. :cool:

[RileyDove]

Lonewolf -there seems to be more than wispers of US Special Forces carrying out training of combatants in Jordan. With the confirmation of lethal and non lethal aid being supplied it seems by far the most logical way for them to get the weapons.

[500N]

Lonewolf

Re training, i read it as the CIA was doing the training.

"The CIA is already training some Syrian rebels in Jordan"

[henra]

It appears that Putin will dictate the terms of any UN Security Council Resolution calling for the collection and destruction of chemical weapons in Syria. I guess we have no real option but to accept and trust that Russia’s terms for collecting and destroying those chemical weapons will succeed.


Which may not be the worst Option. Russia won't have much interest in the chemical warfare abilities of Syria. For them it's important that the Russia- friendly Government of Assad survives.
If it takes ridding Syria of CW in order to achieve the latter Putin will push Assad to not endanger that even if it takes eliminating those Chemical Wepaons, possibly also promising supply of conventional weapons as a compensation.
You can be sure Putin has his priorities set clear and firm. In that regard he's quite predictable.

[Pontius Navigator]

The Russian draft resolution will certainly be interesting to see, and time is certainly of the essence whilst those chemical weapons are not under international control.

Bob C

And keep Obama firmly behind the eight ball. He won't want to veto the proposal as that is a typically Russian tactic. He can't abstain and that is the same as abnegation. Having been painted in to a corner he has to select the least worst option from 3 bad ones.

Tough call.

[Ronald Reagan]

Nigel Farage lambasts "extreme militarists" during Syria debate - YouTube (http://youtu.be/urIdnpb5sRc)

Superb

[henra]

The west have backed the wrong side on this one, just as we did in Egypt and Libya, and all based on the illusion of democracy. Maybe democracy, like most creeds/cultures/empires, has had its day.

Don't be so harsh on Democracy as a political System.

At least this time it seems decmocracy has stopped Governments from waging a war on false assumptions/reasons.
What makes Democracy look weak sometimes is its strength on the other Hand.
And that is what makes it attractive in the longer run.
That said this optimism applies only for Non-Religiously fanatic societies including even Russia or China.
In the ME I'm less optimistic in the short and medium term. And any attempt to enforce it won't work.

[Lonewolf_50]

At least this time it seems decmocracy has stopped Governments from waging a war on false assumptions/reasons.

Or, without pursuing better alternatives that don't include war ... :ok:

[TomJoad]

Nigel Farage lambasts "extreme militarists" during Syria debate - YouTube (http://youtu.be/urIdnpb5sRc)

Superb

Yeah let me think about that:*

[Ronald Reagan]

TomJoad, what makes it even better is he is speaking on behalf of the majority British opinion. He would be an amazing Prime Minister. Compared to the other party leaders Nigel is gifted. He says things as they are.
He and UKIP want peace while the other parties want war, more and more war. At the same time they hugely cut the military. UKIP would keep a well maintained and larger military but not use it in pointless conflicts which are none of our concern.

[TomJoad]

TomJoad, what makes it even better is he is speaking on behalf of the majority British opinion. He would be an amazing Prime Minister. Compared to the other party leaders Nigel is gifted. He says things as they are.
He and UKIP want peace while the other parties want war, more and more war. At the same time they hugely cut the military. UKIP would keep a well maintained and larger military but not use it in pointless conflicts which are none of our concern.


http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-laughing025.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys.php)

I get it, it's you isn't it - you're Nigel - busted.:E


Oh my, this is PPrune at it's best:D:D:D

[500N]

God, two Right wingers with the same name
but on either side of the world :O

We are not surrounded, we have you right where we want you :ok:

[TomJoad]

God, two Right wingers with the same name
but on either side of the world :O


Mr Farage is on another planet never mind the other side of the world.:p

[Toadstool]

Mr Farage has the enviable position of being able to promise the world while never having to deliver. I suspect that, while you think he is speaking on behalf of the majority of the country, this majority will never vote him into office. What would we do with this exensive, well maintained and larger military that hardly ever goes anywhere or does anything?

[Airborne Aircrew]

Toadstool:

What would we do with this exensive, well maintained and larger military that hardly ever goes anywhere or does anything?

Use them to push the lazy, useless, dole stealing wankers into the line at the job centre perchance?

[500N]

"What would we do with this exensive, well maintained and larger military that hardly ever goes anywhere or does anything?"

Train for when they are needed which is what they are for.

And plenty of "other" things they can be used for such as Drug interdiction,
pirates, Anti Terrorist roles which need constant training to maintain skills,
earn income by training troops from foreign countries, help with foreign
policy, the list is endless.

[tartare]

Agree.
At least four leased Virginia Class boats would be a good start for Australia.
Plus a local nuclear industry to support em. :E
And maybe a Seawolf aka the Jimmy Carter to eavesdrop on all those pesky Asian nations.
Oops - it is an aviation forum - some Ospreys would do the trick as well... :)
Think of the jobs and downstream economic multiplier effects.
Ah but no, of course, they're just big expensive killing machines aren't they....

[ORAC]

Syrian Officials Pushing Back Against Giving Up Chemical Weapons (http://blogs.defensenews.com/intercepts/2013/09/syrian-officials-pushing-back-against-giving-up-chemical-weapons/)

The lawyerly wrangling over how to compose documents that would spell out what the international community is to do with Syria’s chemical weapons has begun now that negotiations have kicked off in earnest.

With American and French warships prowling the waters of the eastern Mediterranean in the event that diplomacy fails, things continued to move quickly on Wednesday morning with the Russian state-run news agency Interfax reporting that Moscow has “handed over” to the United States its plan for “introducing international control over Syrian war chemicals.”..........

The AP quoted (http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/S/SYRIA_DIPLOMACY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2013-09-11-10-48-46) an anonymous Syrian senior government official who called the Russian initiative a “broad headline” that is merely the starting point for discussion. Real disconnects are already beginning to emerge in the expectations that the United States is carrying into the negotiation process, and those that Syria and its benefactor Russia may hold.

Syrian Cabinet Minister Ali Haidar told AP reporters that Syria’s chemical weapons exist in order to create a strategic buffer against Israel, “an enemy that we’ve been fighting for more than 60 years.” But he also added that in the initial Russian proposal to bring the international community in to secure Syrian chemical weapons stocks, “there was no talk about moving and transferring control. There was talk about putting these weapons under international supervision.”

Whether or not that means Syria will refuse to give up control of the weapons, or destroy them, is unclear.

In an interview with France’s Inter radio, Russia’s Ambassador the France Alexandre Orlov also reiterated Moscow’s claim that the rebel forces fighting the Assad regime also possess chemical weapons. “It’s sure there are chemical weapons on both sides,” he said. “The important thing is to forbid them, put them under international control. Then we will see who uses them.”

[tartare]

Yep - here we go.
"Yes we said handover, but what we really meant was..."
What complete and utter bullsh1t.
Broad headline, my arse.
Delay, obstruct...
"Fire controlman - ready to launch?"
"Aye sir."

[NutLoose]

.” But he also added that in the initial Russian proposal to bring the international community in to secure Syrian chemical weapons stocks, “there was no talk about moving and transferring control. There was talk about putting these weapons under international supervision.”



I actually wondered that myself, the difficulty of moving the stuff has to be fraught with danger, would it not be better to form an enclave to secure them in, the Syrian Army are not going to attack it if they agree to it and are under the threat of attack from the US and the loss support from Russia in all of this, the Rebels are not going to attempt to take control if told their supplies of weapons and equipment authorised by the West will cease overnight, as it will cripple their cause, the US gave approval for the likes of Saudi to supply them, surely they could just as easily remove that approval..
So is the best place to hold them possibly is at their main storage facility under say the UN until it is safe enough to remove?.

[Courtney Mil]

Their storage facilities are many and substantial (easy to find on Google Earth). Given the right level of effort it wouldn't be too hard for one of them to fall into the wrong hands. There are certainly too many facilities for the UN to go in and guard and the process of moving them (even to consolidate them all in one location) would made them very vulnerable to attack, theft or damage (not knowing the condition of the munitions.

It may be (I would expect) that some agents are stored as separate components, especially given the short shelf life of Sarin, for example. While that might make transporting them somewhat safer, it could be a massive undertaking.

What are the alternatives? Take them to another country? What the hell would you do with them there? Empty then all out into the desert and hope it causes no damage? Burn it all?

It's a difficult undertaking and not without its risks.

[engineer(retard)]

Mr Farage has the enviable position of being able to promise the world while never having to deliver. I suspect that, while you think he is speaking on behalf of the majority of the country, this majority will never vote him into office.

That used to be said about the Lib Dems, now look at the sandal wearing beardy wierdies :cool:

[AtomKraft]

Do we really expect the Syrians to say 'Yes Sir, No Sir, Three bags full Sir' when it comes to handing over their chemicals?

I can't believe how gullible some folk are.

Here's the truth:

1. Our side have tired of war.

2. We've been utterly out-manoevered diplomatically (again).

3. It's none of our damn business anyway.

If Assad has anything to say it will be along the lines of:

'Fcuk off and don't annoy me. We have powerful friends too. And as for handing over anything to the US goes- stick it up your arse'.

Of course, that will be translated into diplomatic language before transmission.

Bottom line?
No strike. No weapon surrender. Assad will eventually defeat his opponents and it will be back to business as usual.

The so-called insurgents are no friends of ours either. The whole plot stinks to high heaven.

[Ronald Reagan]

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

Putin in the New York Times.

[Heathrow Harry]

I'm afraid Atomkraft is correct - if you set a deadline you have to make sure it doesn't include anyway the UN can get involved - they can talk for decades

[Eclectic]

What is for sure is that Assad is off the hook for using WMD over 14 times against civilian populations. He is also off the hook for what the UN describe as:

"....widespread attacks on the civilian population, committing murder, torture, rape and enforced disappearance as crimes against humanity. They have laid siege to neighbourhoods and subjected them to indiscriminate shelling. Government forces have committed gross violations of human rights and the war crimes of torture, hostage-taking, murder, execution without due process, rape, attacking protected objects and pillage."

Putin must be proud of himself.
There is also the not so small matter of Assad's biological weapon stockpile. Anthrax anyone?

[downsizer]

Good job the rebels aren't as bad then...:rolleyes:

[BEagle]

A forum for the professionals who fly the non-civilian hardware, and the backroom boys and girls without whom nothing would leave the ground. Army, Navy and Airforces of the World, all equally welcome here.

Having retired from the RAF, I now work as one of those 'backroom boys'. However, Eclectic, into which category do you fall?

Putin is acting in a far calmer and altogether more statesman-like manner than any of the US speakers one has seen on TV of late. Kerry and McCain seem to want any excuse to lay waste to other peoples' nations, whilst Obama appears to be a complete dunce due to his ineptitude over the Syria Crisis.

[Lonewolf_50]

I have read the transcript of the President's speech.
I read Mr Putin's rebuttal.

Interesting reads, both.

That the stonewalling has commenced is no surprise at all. The record the international community has for getting results -- see specifically the 1991 cease fire agreement and its requirements, never fully complied with, regarding Iraq -- is abysmal.

Can someone point me to a success in the last 30 years on that score?

I don't think the development of an Iranian bomb can be stopped. India's nuclear capability is juxtaposed with Pakistan's nuclear capability. The point Mr Putin's article makes isn't any new insight: it's a replay of the 1950's reality that eventually led to the NPT, a treaty of dubious quality. I suppose it seemed like a good idea at the time, and is better than nothing.

Treaties are only as effective as their enforcement or willing adherence, otherwise a lot of them are relegated to the "scraps of paper" category of diplomatic efforts.

We have discussed the practical issues of how to implement any UN/International/External disposition of Syria's various chemical stocks. That discussion will doubtless be revisited in the next few weeks and months as negotiations take the usual eternity to arrive at an acceptable (to all parties) plan of action.

Meanwhile, the Syrian civil war will continue, most likely without the use of chemical weapons. As I noted elsewhere, there are sufficient conventional munitions to keep the body bag business booming.

There has been great rejoicing that American arms will not blow a bunch of stuff up in that little corner of the world any time soon. How nice. Should anyone rejoice that the Syrian civil war has no end in sight? :mad:

Since the "limited strikes" probably would not have ended that war (had they been undertaken) I may have crafted a non sequitur there. :p

Beags: Kerry and McCain seem to want any excuse to lay waste to other peoples' nations, whilst Obama appears to be a complete dunce due to his ineptitude over the Syria Crisis .
Might this be a deliberate 'good cop bad cop' ploy, particularly the Kerry / Obama contrast? McCain's been a loose cannon for years, and he's not part of the administration.

[Eclectic]

@BEagle

Does being on the staff of an RAF gliding school count?

Plus lots of CCF & ATC years visiting many bases, flying in many types and with a couple of overseas trips.

And on topic:

Turkish PM: Assad buying time for more massacres

Erdogan says it’s ‘doubtful’ Syria will follow through on Russian proposal and subject chemical weapons to international control

[Ronald Reagan]

Frontline: Dramatic report as Syria Army battles jihadists in ancient Christian village - YouTube (http://youtu.be/Ln3UIefx0bM)

[Pontius Navigator]

Assad, like Qaddafi, Mubarak, and Hussein before that, were all good guys.

Now they are all bad guys. Didn't we do well in picking good guys?

Why is the most powerful nation on earth supporting the rebels? Why is the second most powerful supporting the lawful Government?

Just because two-thirds of the population is of the other religion from the secular State, why did they feel the need to rise up against Assad?

In all the current brouhaha I don't recall any media explaining why the rebels are good and the Government are bad.

Should the US etc really be supporting people who want to overthrow their Government just because the US no longer like them?

[AtomKraft]

Pontious

So true- and how quickly we forget, eh?

Remember the US arming and backing the Mujahadeen against the Russkis in Afghanistan? Only to finish up fighting the bastards ever since...

We should choose our friends more carefully.

Those trying to overthrow Assad and his mates are NOT our pals. :=

[Lonewolf_50]

Just because two-thirds of the population is of the other religion from the secular State, why did they feel the need to rise up against Assad?
Why do you think that's the reason?

This whole "Arab Spring" deal seems to be a fig leaf for some long smoldering embers.

Best analysis I have read to date points to water and economic development policy in Syria, and preferential treatment of regime cronies, as being the root cause of the recent demonstrations that led to civil war as the ember was fanned into a flame.

Sectarian issue are certainly embedded, but I do not fall for the line that sectarian differences as the cause of rebellion.

[Pontius Navigator]

Lonewolf, I went to a university seminar in the early-90s. A very young professor, he looked younger than a policeman, talked of NATO expansion and how far it would go. Then of future conflicts being not over oil but over water.

Mmmm.

On sectarian it is also an alternative handle for tribal.

[Robert Cooper]

Apparently an emboldened Assad has started laying down his own conditions for a chemical weapons deal. According to RIA and Interfax, citing an interview with Assad to air in its entirety later today on Rossia 24 TV, they are:
A chemical arms deal depends on US stopping aid to terrorists : Assad will complete the deal only if the US stops its “policy of threats”: Calls for Israel to dispose of its WMD: Rebels may use chemical weapons against Israel as provocation: Assad says implementation of the deal may take a month or more.

And now, his bluff called, we are back to Barack Obama.

Bob C

[NutLoose]

And I can see Israel handing over their nukes with Iran working on theirs. Assad is simply stalling by spouting off a load of requirements that will never happen.

[Eclectic]

Assad also says it will take a month to start the process. He will pile on the conditions until the whole project becomes untenable. Which outcome is worse for him, a few TLAMs or losing the only weapon that works against the rebels?

Also this whole CW disarmament process will only work if the FSA allow. This is a warzone. At the moment they are being offered a deal whereby they get zero new kit or supplies whilst Assad gets lots of shiny new toys. That is hardly going to go down well.

Also Russia seems to be including S-300s in their latest shipments. Presumably as a B2 deterrent. The problem is that these missiles have a range that allows them to dominate a lot of Israeli airspace. Bibi will not allow this. He will blow them up without asking the USA or the UN. And if they have Russian operators so much the better, the Israelis have killed Russian "advisers" before.

[Airborne Aircrew]

Assad also says it will take a month to start the process. He will pile on the conditions until the whole project becomes untenable. Which outcome is worse for him, a few TLAMs or losing the only weapon that works against the rebels?

And O'Bummer will let it happen rather than do anything on the excuse that a peaceful solution is the best solution despite the fact that everyone can see there is no solution at all...

Bloody hell... Ole Peanuts is starting to look like a strong and effective president... :uhoh:

[Lonewolf_50]

Lonewolf, I went to a university seminar in the early-90s. A very young professor, he looked younger than a policeman, talked of NATO expansion and how far it would go. Then of future conflicts being not over oil but over water.
We were briefing that in NATO HQ's during the early and mid 90's as NATO shifted its focus from the Fulda Gap and Northern European Plain to the Southern Region. Three core strategic issues of concern to NATO's European AO:

1. Population explosion on areas bordering NATO's southern region
2. Food and water scarcity
3. Political instability as cold war world order realigned

There were other issues. Maybe that prof had a chance to talk to the strategy heads in NATO, and maybe a lot of people looking at the same thing came up with the same assessment.

[NutLoose]

That's what you get for not setting a time frame in the first place, it allows Assad to offer one up and then you are screwed all over again.
You're caught on your back foot and you either say no to it, in which case you are forced down the route of having to act again or you agree in which case you are seen to be allowing Assad to dictate the terms.

[Lonewolf_50]

Aren't these opening rounds of a negotiation, using the media as a sounding board?

[NutLoose]

Aren't these opening rounds of a negotiation, using the media as a sounding board?


May well be, but always better to get in the first unrealistic timescale, so he can counter with, we cannot do it that quick how about XYZ?

[Airborne Aircrew]

Aren't these opening rounds of a negotiation, using the media as a sounding board?

That's what we need... The bleeding media part of the process... Now we have politicians and the media negotiating for us... How the hell could that go wrong???? :ugh:

[500N]

No worse than the double act comedians Obama and Kerry :O

Assad and Putin have pulled one over Obama again.

[Churchills Ghost]

Syria is headed for catastrophe, beyond that which we have already seen, and the West is ill-prepared to respond in both its understanding and strategy.

[racedo]

Assad and Putin have pulled one over Obama again.

3rd Grader in Special Ed could manage that...................

[500N]

True

I heard Assads list today on the news, he is running rings round Obama.

[Airborne Aircrew]

I heard Assads list today on the news, he is running rings round Obama.

Just remember [wagging finger sternly] Bashar Assad doesn't do pinpricks... :rolleyes:

[glojo]

This is like watching children debating with adults!!!!


Success, success
Kerry has now agreed to hold talks in New York on the 28th of this month (15 days away) These talks will discuss a location to hold talks about what to talk about:sad::sad::D John Kerry was delighted with the result, shaking hands with both his Russian and Syrian counterparts.

Yup he has certainly won that round and this is all being taken very very seriously. :bored::bored:

What an embarrassment but at least John Kerry managed to show his ignorance by doubting what was beng said when the Russians spoke in their mother tongue.... They simply reverted to speaking in English!!

Diplomacy is an art and Russia is giving us all a lesson in how to get what we want by words and words alone.

[Ronald Reagan]

'Clear from rebel exchanges they were behind chem attack' - ex-hostage - YouTube (http://youtu.be/peMyuW1QDmo)

[Pontius Navigator]

False flag is a well known tool of propagandists. Unfortunately it is so well known that its effects on disengaged populations is often the reverse of that intended.

The greater the apparent atrocities the stronger our resistance to such propaganda.

While some media imagery is undoubtedly contemporary many other images have no verified date, and as mentioned earlier on this thread, are often wholly contrived and irrelevant. Witness the B2s and X47 at Akrotiri or the Iraqi bodies from 10 years (?) previous.

No one has commented on my earlier observation of how clean and clear the streets are in the devastated areas which illustrate that there is civil control in the area. How old is that devastation?

[TEEEJ]

Ronald,

It isn't 'clear'. Typical RT spinning and clutching at straws yet again. Piccinin simply gained an impression and it offers no proof and certainly isn't clear. Piccinin simply dismisses a moment of madness by Assad forces but it could well have been just that.

[Ronald Reagan]

TEEEJ, RT is the best network out there by far. One gets to see stories on RT which are not on any of the mainstream propaganda networks.

At the very least it creates doubt about the official western story of lies which can only be a good thing.

[TEEEJ]

Ronald,
RT is a joke! I tune in purely for amusement at just how far they will spin a story. RT is pure Russian Government propaganda at its worst. It never fails to amuse me how many ranting conspiracy nuts they have on speed dial!

[TEEEJ]

PN,

In reference to the Iraq image it was simply an error originally posted by the BBC. Since then it has spun by conspiracy types and claimed to have been used by Kerry during his briefings. Stuffy posted a link for the conspiracy nut website article with the title.

'Bombshell: Kerry Caught Using Fake Photos to Fuel Syrian War'

http://www.pprune.org/military-aircrew/513470-here-comes-syria-41.html#post8022756

There isn't a shred of evidence that Kerry used or referred to that Iraqi image. There are several images taken in the aftermath of the chemical attack that fit what Kerry described.

We saw rows of dead lined up in burial shrouds, the white linen unstained by a single drop of blood. Instead of being tucked safely in their beds at home, we saw rows of children lying side by side sprawled on a hospital floor, all of them dead from Assad’s gas and surrounded by parents and grandparents who had suffered the same fate.

Statement on Syria (http://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/08/213668.htm)

[Pontius Navigator]

TEEEJ, I know it was a fake/error as it was roundly debunked on here though I missed such revelation on mains stream media. I think it is true to say that when any media splash inches high news their subsequent apology is in mini-print and buried out of sight.

Apparently the layout and position of any item in a newspaper is done with precise knowledge of its visibility and impact with the readership.

There is an example today in the Torygraph, News Bulletin, page 2 ie left hand, in right hand column and right at the bottom. That is a pretty 'hidden' position. It then refers to a dispute from an article printed 2 1/2 months ago. Who, amongst the general readership, will remember the article or, should they wish to quote from it, amend the original.

In other words, more people will remember the lie than will seek or believe the truth.

[TEEEJ]

Imagery brief on Syria from ISIS.

This report seeks to assess the situation at Marj as Sulţān, the characteristics of a secret stock of natural
uranium in Syria, and other nuclear assets reported to have been located at the Marj as Sulţān site. Syria is not
believed to have an active, secret nuclear program at this time, but Syria is believed to be actively hiding assets
associated with this past undeclared nuclear reactor effort.

http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Marj_as_Sultan_12sept2013.pdf

[Ronald Reagan]

Russia to expand Mediterranean fleet to 10 warships ? Navy chief ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/navy-warship-syria-mediterranean-800/)

Russia?s ?carrier-killer? Moskva enters Mediterranean ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/russia-moskva-cruiser-mediterranean-720/)

Russian destroyer enters east Mediterranean to head task force ? report ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/russian-destroyer-mediterranean-report-424/)

Bid for naval dominance: Russia significantly boosts nuclear fleet ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/russia-navy-nuclear-submarine-fleet-450/)

[500N]

What started out as an internal war in Syria where Russia just wanted to
protect it's warm water port on the Med has now given rise to Russia
improving it's fleet in the Med 10 fold as well as being seen around the
world as being the only one in control as well as setting the agenda.

Good work Barry :ok:

[Ronald Reagan]

Russia is well and truly back on the world stage and their power will only increase. What with their SCO alliance with China and other nations they are a very powerful force.
I see India is now keen to head towards the SCO to, they can see the writing on the wall for the west probably:- India keen to deepen its security-related cooperation with SCO: Salman Khurshid | Business Standard (http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/india-keen-to-deepen-its-security-related-cooperation-with-sco-salman-khurshid-113091300355_1.html)

I note India also supports Russia and China over Syria to. So that's the main three new global powers lining up against the west, the fourth (Brazil) is with them to, also key regional players like Iran.

Its hard to know where we in the west have gone so wrong, our little wars have made us rather unpopular the world over and driven nations to support our rivals, the truth is our rivals seem to have a more logical world view than our own leaders. But then again all empires rise and fall, it seems to me in many ways we in the west have had our day, for now.

[Pontius Navigator]

to protect it's warm water port on the Med has now given rise to Russia improving it's fleet in the Med 10 fold as well as being seen around the:

Save you the work CM.

[500N]

PN

They are rampant nowadays :O

[ORAC]

Elite Syrian Unit Scatters Chemical Arms Stockpile (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324755104579071330713553794.html?mod=WSJ_hpp _LEFTTopStories)

A secretive Syrian military unit at the center of the Assad regime's chemical weapons program has been moving stocks of poison gases and munitions to as many as 50 sites to make them harder for the U.S. to track, according to American and Middle Eastern officials.

The movements of chemical weapons by Syria's elite Unit 450 could complicate any U.S. bombing campaign in Syria over its alleged chemical attacks, officials said. It also raises questions about implementation of a Russian proposal that calls for the regime to surrender control of its stockpile, they said. U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies still believe they know where most of the Syrian regime's chemical weapons are located, but with less confidence than six months ago, U.S. officials said.........

Unit 450—a branch of the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center that manages the regime's overall chemicals weapons program—has been moving the stocks around for months, officials and lawmakers briefed on the intelligence said. Movements occurred as recently as last week, the officials said, after Mr. Obama said he was preparing to launch strikes.

The unit is in charge of mixing and deploying chemical munitions, and it provides security at chemical sites, according to U.S. and European intelligence agencies. It is composed of officers from Mr. Assad's Alawite sect. One diplomat briefed on the unit said it was Alawite from "janitor to commander." U.S. military officials have looked into the possibility of gaining influence over members of Unit 450 through inducements or threats. "In a perfect world, you would actually like to co-opt that unit. Who cares who pays them as long as they sit on the chemical weapons," said a senior U.S. military official. Although the option remains on the table, government experts say the unit is so close knit that they doubt any member could break ranks without being exposed and killed.

The U.S. estimates the regime has 1,000 metric tons of chemical and biological agents. "That is what we know about. There might be more," said one senior U.S. official. The regime traditionally kept most of its chemical and biological weapons at a few large sites in western Syria, U.S. officials said. But beginning about a year ago, the Syrians started dispersing the arsenal to nearly two dozen major sites. Unit 450 also started using dozens of smaller sites. The U.S. now believes Mr. Assad's chemical arsenal has been scattered to as many as 50 locations in the west, north and south, as well as new sites in the east, officials said.

The U.S. is using satellites to track vehicles employed by Unit 450 to disperse the chemical-weapons stocks. But the imagery doesn't always show what is being put on the trucks. "We know a lot less than we did six months ago about where the chemical weapons are," one official said. The movements, activities and base locations of Unit 450 are so sensitive that the U.S. won't share information with even trusted allies in the opposition for fear the unit would be overrun by rebels, said current and former U.S. officials.

The U.S. wants any military strikes in Syria to send a message to the heads of Unit 450 that there is a steep price for following orders to use chemical weapons, U.S. officials said. At the same time, the U.S. doesn't want any strike to destabilize the unit so much that it loses control of its chemical weapons, giving rebels a chance to seize the arsenal. "Attacking Unit 450, assuming we have any idea where they actually are, would be a pretty tricky affair because…if you attack them you may reduce the security of their weapons, which is something we certainly don't want," said Jeffrey White, a veteran of the Defense Intelligence Agency and a defense fellow at The Washington Institute.

Within Syria, little is known about Unit 450 or the Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center. One of the buildings is in a sprawling complex on the outskirts of Damascus. Even high-ranking defectors from the Syrian military that form the core of the rebel insurgency—including those who served in units trained to handle chemical attacks—said they hadn't heard of Unit 450.

The Pentagon has prepared multiple target lists for possible strikes, some of which include commanders of Unit 450. But a senior U.S. official said no decision has been made to target them, reflecting the challenge of sending a message to Unit 450 without destabilizing it. In some respects, officials said, the hands-on role that Unit 450 plays in safeguarding the regime's chemical weapons secrets makes it too valuable for the U.S. to eliminate, even though the U.S. believes the unit is directly responsible for the alleged chemical weapons abuses.

The Syrian Scientific Studies and Research Center answers only to Mr. Assad and the most senior members of his clan, according to U.S. and European officials. Attack orders are forwarded to a commanding officer within Unit 450. If the Russians clinch a deal for Mr. Assad to give up his chemical weapons, any prospective United Nations-led force to protect inspectors and secure storage sites would likely need to work closely with Unit 450 and the research center, current and former administration officials said.

Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the U.S. military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said that President Barack Obama directed him to plan for "a militarily significant strike" that would deter the Assad regime's further use of chemical weapons and degrade the regime's military capability to employ chemical weapons in the future. But officials said the U.S. doesn't plan to bomb chemical weapons sites directly because of concerns any attack would disperse poison agents and put civilians at risk. In addition to satellites, the U.S. also relies on Israeli spies for on-the-ground intelligence about the unit, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

Though small in size, Unit 450 controls a vast infrastructure that makes it easier for the U.S. and Israel to track its movements. Chemical weapons storage depots are guarded by the unit within larger compounds to provide multiple layers of security, U.S. officials said. Whenever chemical munitions are deployed in the field, Unit 450 has to pre-deploy heavy equipment to chemical mixing areas, which the U.S. and Israel can track.

[Pontius Navigator]

What does STUFFED mean again?

Make a plan, give an ultimatum, execute the plan.

[TomJoad]

Russia is well and truly back on the world stage and their power will only increase. What with their SCO alliance with China and other nations they are a very powerful force.

Its hard to know where we in the west have gone so wrong, our little wars have made us rather unpopular the world over and driven nations to support our rivals, the truth is our rivals seem to have a more logical world view than our own leaders. But then again all empires rise and fall, it seems to me in many ways we in the west have had our day, for now.


Ronald,

Fret not, I'm sure we could raise you the air fare for a one way trip to Moscow. I'm sure you would be much happier there.:ok:

[Pontius Navigator]

TJ, in this we also rather think the Russians are playing their hand rather better than the US academics.

[TomJoad]

TJ, in this we also rather think the Russians are playing their hand rather better than the US academics.

With respect to Syria, and for the moment, that may well be the case. However, Russia leading us in the march toward the "broad sunlit uplands" of tomorrow, sorry Ronald's being a bit too ready to condemn the old guard.

[Courtney Mil]

Thanks, PN. You might point out how to use the word "TOO" when indicating "also". :ok:

[Thelma Viaduct]

Let's not over complicate the situation, our leaders are despised externally and internally because they are knobheads, like quite a few posters on this forum. Our 'democracy' is bull****, people are starting to see it for what it is, a pantomime with puppets, people who are not actually real.

[TomJoad]

Let's not over complicate the situation,

Steady on Pious, if we didn't over complicated it PPrune wouldn't be half as fun and interesting:{

[Toadstool]

Quote from today. 'The best thing that Obama has done regarding Syria is making the Republican Party look like a bunch of Peaceniks'.

[Courtney Mil]

Am I the only one that's more than a little cynical about Assad's sudden, apparent change of direction? The move from being a CW armed state to begging to be allowed to become the 190th signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention is one hell of a turn around. It all smacks too much of Gadaffi's miracle 'rehabilitation' all those years ago.

All of this has brought about a considerable media shift with much more press showing the rebels as the bad guys. PR coup or has Assad just had a vision in the middle of the night that converted him into the World's most progressive and liberal leader? The will to come in out of the cold or an opportunity to avert having his forces crushed by Uncle Sam?

:hmm:

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

Courtney Mil, the sudden change of posture had me wondering similarly, too. My thinking was, though, has jolly Uncle Vladimir quietly made him some offers that he can't refuse? I'm still of the mind that Vlad the Wise will not want to get too many rules identified/created by the UN or World opinion that limit the scope of a Nation's response to internal unrest.

[Onceapilot]

No CM, the badies are still badies. Would be nice to think that the power of Democracy has had some effect on warmongering. It will not stop nasty conflicts happening though.:uhoh:

OAP

[Courtney Mil]

OAP,

Indeed, that's democracy happening in the West. I have no problem getting my head around that. It's the baffling Assad u-turn that interests me in this case.

[Pontius Navigator]

OAP,

Indeed, that's democracy happening in the West. I have no problem getting my head around that. It's the baffling Assad u-turn that interests me in this case.

Surely it is an example of force majeure or gun-boat diplomacy in action.

The difference today compared with the US previous stance is that diplomacy has been given time to work.

The original US stance was to fire a shot across his bow to enforce the diplomacy. What the UK vote against action achieved was to cause all the western players to draw breath and give more time.

This recognises of course that there are two different issues in play here. One is chemical weapons and the other is the civil war. It seems only the former is actually in play. The civil war is perhaps still being view as a very regrettable but internal matter.

[dead_pan]

OAP,
It's the baffling Assad u-turn that interests me in this case.

I thought it would have a simple calculation on his behalf- lose his CW capability and loads besides to a US air strike (+see my enemies greatly emboldened), or spend years giving it up and try to finish the job quickly with conventional weaponry, quite possibly with more men + kit from Iran + Russia.



Posted from Pprune.org App for Android

[strake]

Over here, dear old President H is looking a little more confused than normal.

In nearly everything he does, no matter how hard he tries, he ends up just that bit behind the curve. "Bomb ze bas-tards" was his rallying cry to the world and La France last week. After the desperately sought metaphorical 'Presidential-arm-to-the-elbow' arrived shortly after and France became 'The Oldest Friend' (is that better than a Special Friend?), he wasted no time in laying about our Dave calling him "a weak Rosboef 'oo made ze schoolboy erreur..".

Full of himself, he's then charged through the " 'Av at zem my petit pois" door whereupon, pausing for breath, he's looked behind and is wondering "Zut, where 'av zay all gone...??

[Heathrow Harry]

what language is that between the inverted commas?

is it supposed to be funny???? :rolleyes::rolleyes:

[TomJoad]

what language is that between the inverted commas?

is it supposed to be funny???? :rolleyes::rolleyes:

There is a clue Heathrow in the subject (President H) and perhaps in Strake's location. Read through it again and see if you can work it out - if not, give a shout.:ok:

[Airborne Aircrew]

Methinks Heathrow has had a catastrophic sense of humour failure... We should hear the mayday anytime soon...

[strake]

I do apologise to the obviously Francophone HH....

Over here, dear old President H is looking a little more confused than normal.

In nearly everything he does, no matter how hard he tries, he ends up just that bit behind the curve. "Bombe ces salauds" was his rallying cry to the world and La France last week. After the desperately sought metaphorical 'Presidential-arm-to-the-elbow' arrived shortly after and France became 'The Oldest Friend' (is that better than a Special Friend?), he wasted no time in laying about our Dave calling him "La faiblesse du rôti de boeuf qui a fait une erreur d'écolier"

Full of himself, he's then charged through the door shouting "Obtenez après eux mes petits pois" whereupon, pausing for breath, he's looked behind and is wondering "Mince alors, où sont-ils tous partis??

Hilarious innit..? :ok:

[TomJoad]

I understood it better the first time.:p

[Eclectic]

Everything Assad and Putin have said has been lies.
They both said that Assad had no chemical weapons.
They both said that chemical weapons had not been used.
They both said that it was the rebels that used chemical weapons when all the evidence says Assad was the culprit.

So the evidence is that they are not to be trusted in any way.
More evidence of this: Report: Assad scattering chemical weapons to 50 sites - Israel News, Ynetnews (http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4429324,00.html)
Report: Assad scattering chemical weapons to 50 sites
American officials say US, Israeli intelligence agencies still believe they know where most of Assad regime's chemical weapons are located, but with less confidence
Ynet
Published: 09.13.13, 08:01 / Israel News
A secretive Syrian military unit at the center of the Assad regime's chemical weapons program has been moving stocks of poison gases and munitions to as many as 50 sites to make them harder for the US to track, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday, citing American and Middle Eastern officials.

The American newspaper quoted officials as saying the movements of chemical weapons by Syria's elite Unit 450 could complicate any US bombing campaign in Syria over its alleged chemical attacks,. It also raises questions about implementation of a Russian proposal that calls for the regime to surrender control of its stockpile, they said........more

[Toadstool]

Eclectic

Everything Assad and Putin have said has been lies.
They both said that Assad had no chemical weapons. - Incorrect. Both Al Assad and Putin have said that the Regime has chemical weapons. This fact has never been disputed by Al Assad.

They both said that chemical weapons had not been used. - Incorrect. They both said that chemical weapons had been used but by the Rebels.

Now I am not saying that it wasn't the Regime forces who used chemical weapons, I am saying that there is a complete lack of irrefutable proof. To counter your unbiased Israeli news story, I offer another unbiased news report.

Turkish prosecutors indict Syrian rebels for seeking chemical weapons ? RT News (http://rt.com/news/turkey-syria-chemical-weapons-850/)

[NutLoose]

Britain still gripped by every twist and turn of Syria story (http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/britain-still-gripped-by-every-twist-and-turn-of-syria-story-2013091379440)

[Toadstool]

:D I like it Nut, the best news story all day. I am just off to Stores in order to sign out a life:E Oh wait, it's Saturday and they're closed. I will pop in when they are open on Monday between 0843-0846, 15 minutes after PSF closes.

[NutLoose]

Interesting reading here on the grand plan

WPR Article | Jihad 2020: Assessing Al-Qaida?s 20-Year Plan (http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/13208/jihad-2020-assessing-al-qaida-s-20-year-plan)

[Eclectic]

@ Toadstool

The Economist: Syria?s chemical weapons: Distrust and verify | The Economist (http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21586318-russias-plan-disarm-syrias-chemical-weapons-makes-sense-only-if-it-backed-threat)

Just this week he denied having chemical weapons, even as his foreign minister admitted it. He is not a man to be trusted.

Daily Mail: Syria denies it has chemical weapons | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-176750/Syria-denies-chemical-weapons.html)

Bashar Assad's Foreign Ministry flatly denied the American charges.

"Of course Syria has no chemical weapons. They (Americans) have been talking for years about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. But so far, the presence of these weapons has not been confirmed," said ministry spokeswoman Bouthayna Shaaban.

"I would like to say that there are biological, chemical and nuclear weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East region. They are in Israel, not in Syria," she said .


As for: They both said that chemical weapons had not been used.

This was for a brief time period of a day or two before it became irrefutable. I really cannot be bothered searching through all the news items to find it.

[Pontius Navigator]

I really cannot be bothered searching through all the news items to find it.
Thank goodness.

Now can you remind us what you think should happen?

Unleash the hounds of war or wring hands piously and tell them to stop killing each other?

[AtomKraft]

If anyone's looking for the definition of "Kicking an issue into the long grass"- well, here it is.

So, the US and Russia are insisting that Assad destroys all his chems by some time in the future, if you don't mind.

And if you don't- well, we're going to be horrid to you.


Yawn.....

Straightaway...............nothing happened.:rolleyes:

[TomJoad]

Extracted from the link provided above.

"BRITAIN cannot hear enough about the Syrian conflict and has urged the media to report it in greater detail."

Ok pedant mode on here - how the hell can "Britain" urge anything never mind the media? Whenever I read statements like that I can't help but think what follows has been entirely made up just to suit the authors agenda. Or maybe I missed something maybe there was a referendum last week and we did urge the media. Sorry I ramble,,,,,,,


Yep I just went back and bought one of their tee shirts:E

[NutLoose]

Lol read some of the other articles and you will get your answer, did you buy this one

http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0154/1105/products/The-Dailt-Mail-resize_1024x1024.jpg?9844

[TomJoad]

Man so many to choose from, but I rather thought this one was appropriate - I'll wear it when posting on the forum;)

http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0154/1105/products/I_am_amazing_black_large.jpg?9844

Now that I've got my head round it, it's actually quite a good site - bit like the Dufflbag site. Thanks for sharing it NutLoose:ok:

[Boy_From_Brazil]

I've been out for a while....

I expected that Eclectic wouldn't still be spouting the same ill-informed, armchair drivel as he was a couple of weeks ago.

Sadly I am wrong.

[Toadstool]

BFB

nope, unfortunately Bibi, I mean Eclectic, is still hand picking his unbiased news articles without being so brave to come up with his solution.

[Rosevidney1]

I'm not an unkind man but mightn't we be thinking of sending him to Coventry? Oh - no, he's there already. :eek:

[Eclectic]

I have stated my solution several times and even provided a map.

The Russians and the Americans have common interest in Syria. They both want the chemical weapons out of the way and they both want to sort out radical islam, which is causing them problems.
Russia has a unique problem. They need a Mediterranean port. This is Tartus, in Syria.
USA has a unique problem in that they have to look after Israel and that means handling the Iranian (Shiite) nuclear threat.

The Syrian solution is partition into three states. A Sunni state mainly up the Euphrates valley and the area around Allepo. A Kurdish state in the north against the Turkish border and an Alawaite/Shia state in Damascus/Homs and along the coast. This is the reality on the ground and has been for some time, the front line does not move much.

Once the states are up and running they need support. To be secular, to not be extremist, to have the rule of law. The UN can do this. Then the refugees will return.

The real problem is what to do with Assad. He has used WMDs against civilians which is behaviour not tolerated by the international community. The Russians are protecting him and the USA want to punish him.

[10Watt]

Partition is a runner, it worked in Northern Ireland so lets go with that.

Have we lost our senses ?

[500N]

"The real problem is what to do with Assad. He has used WMDs against civilians which is behaviour not tolerated by the international community. The Russians are protecting him and the USA want to punish him."

Nothing will happen to him.

He won't allow it to happen to himself either and if the International
community try he will just lay waste to everything they want.

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Eclectic

What do you propose for the 2 million Christians in the Ethnic carve up of Syria?

[West Coast]

500

Run that by the former leaders of late who met their fate.

[500N]

But they didn't have Russia on side like he has.

Just my HO.

[West Coast]

Should the US arming of the opposition turn the tide, I see two paths forward. Assad meets his fate in Syria or he retires to a nice dacha on the Caspian Sea as a guest of Putin. I suppose Putin could put boots on the ground to stabilize (from his perspective) the situation. Time will tell.

[Eclectic]

@ 10Watt

Partition worked well for the Austro Hungarian Empire, Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union. Where the differences between groups of people in different parts of a state are great it is the ultimate solution.

Partition would defuse the conflict, making the states more likely to be secular (as I put in my last post) so that the minorities would be OK.

Syria is (all very -ish and a simplification) :
74% Sunni (10% Kurds)
13% Shia (11% Alawites)
10% Christian
3% Druze

They tend to live in segregated communities/enclaves/neighbourhoods/ghettoes. The level of integration is low. Which is part of what makes partition so feasible. It also explains why the front lines in the conflict are so static. It also explains the Ghouta sarin attack. Ghouta being a Sunni enclave in Damascus.

[dead_pan]

@ 10Watt

Partition worked well for ... Yugoslavia


I beg to differ.

What's to stop there being a never-ending series of border disputes?

The radical elements of all shades need to be damped down, by force or whatever, for any prospect of a stable outcome.


Posted from Pprune.org App for Android

[Lonewolf_50]

Action deferred, maybe not a bad idea.

The next step is for it to go into deadlock in the UNSC while working out excruciating details. Assad has at least a year's lease on life, unmolseted beyond current levels of molestation.

[TEEEJ]

Turkey shot down Syrian helicopter at border, Deputy PM says

The Turkish Air Force shot down a Syrian helicopter today at the border after the helicopter violated Turkish airspace, Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç said.

Turkish military aircraft taking off from a base in Malatya shot the M-17 helicopter after it allegedly continued to violate Turkish airspace despite repeated warnings, after which the chopper fell onto Syrian soil, Arınç said.

“It [The helicopter] violated Turkey’s border for two kilometers. It was repeatedly warned by air defense elements. Upon the continuation of the violation, it was determined that it fell into Syrian territory after being shot at 2.25 p.m. with a missile by our planes taking off from Malatya,” Arınç said.

MIDEAST - Turkey shot down Syrian helicopter at border, Deputy PM says (http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/helicopter-crashes-near-turkeys-border-with-syria-report.aspx?pageID=238&nID=54538&NewsCatID=352)

[Lonewolf_50]

'Twould be a sad irony if the helicopter was being flown by defectors trying to get away from Assad ...

The deputy prime minister said the initiative taken by the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) to shoot down the Syrian helicopter was based on the rules of engagement with Syria. The country’s rules of engagement changed after Syria shot down a Turkish plane in June 2012. Turkish officials did not publicly announce details of the revised rules of engagement, but some reports claimed Turkish forces would fire on any Syrian forces approaching within five kilometers of the Turkish border on the Syrian side.
Payback's a bear, isn't it? :hmm:

I am reminded of the RoE I was offered (as a friendly) by the guy in charge of AAW (ships with surface to air missiles chareged with air defense, USN style) off of the Lebanese coast, early 1980's.

"Squawk or die."

He was mostly referring to making sure one's mode 4 was operating. It appears the Turks have taken his position and cranked it up a notch.

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Eclectic

Good to see that you have suddenly remembered to include the 2 million Christians.

Perhaps you could explain the logistic strategy and the devastating impact of relocating tens of millions of people against their will, into areas that they really dont want to live in. It's a bit like moving the population of Coventry into the Gorbals.

On second thoughts - perhaps it's not a good example. Lady Godiva's ancestors might enjoy being relocated...

[TEEEJ]

Link to UN report

'Report on the Alleged Use of Chemical Weapons in the Ghouta Area of Damascus on 21 August 2013'

http://www.un.org/disarmament/content/slideshow/Secretary_General_Report_of_CW_Investigation.pdf

[airborne_artist]

'Twould be a sad irony if the helicopter was being flown by defectors trying to get away from Assad ...

That seems unlikely if this report is correct:

"The helicopter then violated Turkish airspace, encroaching two kilometers (1.2 miles) into in Hatay's Yayladağ district while flying at around 14,200 feet"

[Courtney Mil]

I am reminded of the RoE I was offered (as a friendly) by the guy in charge of AAW (ships with surface to air missiles chareged with air defense, USN style) off of the Lebanese coast, early 1980's.

"Squawk or die."

He was mostly referring to making sure one's mode 4 was operating.

Holy Handgrenades, Batman. We used to run in and out of Lebanon with our Buccaneer mates right past your boats, and the Soviets'. We didn't even have Mode 4.

Only goes to prove my old point. I'd rather be lucky than good.

[TEEEJ]

Analysis from Eliot Higgins 'Brown Moses' on the unidentified munition referenced in pages 18, 19 and 20 of the UN report.

Unfortunately direct links to (b l o g s) can't be posted so see link or use the following as a search

'Brown Moses Who Was Responsible For The August 21st Attack?'

'Detailed Diagrams Of The Unidentified Munitions Linked To Alleged Chemical Attacks in Damascus'

https://plus.google.com/108344897173120412718/posts

UN report link

http://www.un.org/disarmament/content/slideshow/Secretary_General_Report_of_CW_Investigation.pdf

[Fonsini]

Funny how a thread about the Syrian civil war became a US bashing thread in short order.

[Lonewolf_50]

Courtney, what year were you there? :confused:

Hmm: maybe our low and slow was part of our risk profile. Light civil "kamikaze" fly about where a helicopter (we could do upwards of 135 knots) does. Maybe we were more of a threat then go fasters :eek: unless identified. Memory a bit fuzzy on that, but I seem to recall something about the Cessna with a bomb during the inchop brief, or that class of threat.

In other news, over a thousand Syrians died via conventional means last week. Good thing no poison gas was used, eh? :p

The bloodletting is likely to get worse, not better (http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/09/15/20507293-wave-of-bombings-kills-53-in-south-and-central-iraq?lite)
So, where is the sainted Seymour Hirsch when you need him? Seems he can't find this story, so someone else has to. :p
At a base near Tehran, Iranian forces are training Shiite militiamen from across the Arab world to do battle in Syria—showing the widening role of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria's bloody war.

The busloads of Shiite militiamen from Iraq, Syria and other Arab states have been arriving at the Iranian base in recent weeks, under cover of darkness, for instruction in urban warfare and the teachings of Iran's clerics, according to Iranian military figures and residents in the area. The fighters' mission: Fortify the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad against Sunni rebels, the U.S. and Israel.

Iran's widening role in Syria has helped Mr. Assad climb back from
near-defeat in less than a year. The role of Iran's training camp for Shiite
fighters hasn't previously been disclosed.

The fighters "are told that the war in Syria is akin to [an] epic battle for Shiite Islam, and if they die they will be martyrs of the highest rank," says an Iranian military officer briefed on the training camp, which is 15 miles outside Tehran and called Amir Al-Momenin, or Commander of the Faithful.

The training of thousands of fighters is an outgrowth of Iran's decision last year to immerse itself in the Syrian civil war on behalf of its struggling ally, the Assad regime, in an effort to shift the balance of power in the Middle East. Syria's bloodshed is shaping into more than a civil war: It is now a proxy war among regional powers jockeying for influence in the wake of the Arab Spring revolutions.
Crosby Stills and Nash
A Song of the Civil War or The Song Every and Any Civil War?

[NutLoose]

Lonewolf, your song reminds me of one of the saddest and most played at the time, it was banned by the BBC.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVb3uWL0-gU&sns=em

It was based on the story of Sgt Michael Willets GC

Michael Willetts | ParaData (http://www.paradata.org.uk/people/michael-willetts)



..

[Lonewolf_50]

Nutloose: poignant. Thank, had not heard that tune in ages.

[Robert Cooper]

Nutloose, thank you for reminding us. It's dusty in here this evening....

Bob C

[TEEEJ]

Link to image of the radar track released by the Turks. Image too large for direct insert.

http://www.tsk.tr/3_basin_yayin_faaliyetleri/3_1_basin_aciklamalari/2013/ba_17/1.jpg

The following is from a post on Key Mags forum with a translation of the Turkish General Staff information.

Turkish General Staff issued an announcement and added the radar track history regarding the incident:

1. The Syrian Mi-17 was first detected as possible intruder and immediately tracked by the Diyarbakir CAOC at 1341, while it was 26nm from the border.

2. CAOC repeatedly issued warnings to the helicopters until it was 5nm to the border.

3. The helicopter intruded Turkish airspace at 1425 near Guvecci Gendarmerie Post at Yayladag, Hatay province at 14,200ft and 2km depth.

4. Two F-16C's that were on CAP nearby were diverted to intercept the helicopter.

5. The helicopter was shot at 1427 and crashed at 1km within the Syrian side of the border

Potential Syrian War - no fighter involvement? - Page 5 (http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?126168-Potential-Syrian-War-no-fighter-involvement&p=2065806#post2065806)

[500N]

No stuffing around with the Turkish ROE !

[Roland Pulfrew]

Well looking TEEEJ's picture of the TU radar plot, I would say that is an unfortunate shoot down. Helo flying at a reported 14200 feet, I would assume flying visually (not sure of the moving map and GPS fit of the Mi-17) strays a short distance over the border (not difficult to misident valleys from 14000 feet and 2km would be what? 60 secs of flying time?), does not appear to be doing anything hostile (has anyone seen any reports of demonstrating hostile intent?) and is shot down.

And 2 minutes from crossing the border to being shot down! Not much time for an intercept, VID, followed by the internationally recognised interception signals (fly alongside, waggle wings etc etc) - no, straight to shoot down. And close enough to the border for the helo to crash on Syrian territory.

Looks more like revenge for the Syrian shootdown of the TuAF jet a few months back. :sad:

[Just This Once...]

After boarder incursions, artillery strikes and other unpleasantness the Turks effectively enforce a buffer-zone on the Syrian side of the boarder.

[Pontius Navigator]

:D

Eclectic

Perhaps you could explain the logistic strategy and the devastating impact of relocating tens of millions of people against their will, into areas that they really dont want to live in. ..

And it would still open up the Kurdish question where they want bits of Syria, Iraq, Iran, Turkey etc.

[ORAC]

Turkey expects no retaliation after shooting Syrian helicopter (http://www.worldpress.org/link.cfm?http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/index.php)

Underlining that a Syrian military helicopter shot down by Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) on Sept. 16 had violated the Turkish air space on purpose, not “mistakenly” as claimed by the Syrian military, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said on Sept. 17 that they expected no retaliation from the Syrian regime.........

Turkish general’s son killed in Ankara (http://www.worldpress.org/link.cfm?http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/index.php)

The son of a Turkish Air Force major general and his girlfriend were shot dead before the building complex where they live in Ankara on Sept. 16.

Unknown assailants shot Göktuğ Demirarslan, 24, and his Russian girlfriend Elena, 23, seven times with a pump rifle at 11.30 p.m. in Ankara’s Eryaman neighborhood. The couple died immediately. The attacker fled the area and is still at large. ............

[TEEEJ]

How very convenient for the Syrians that after the release of the UN chemical report a video appears out of the blue? A new Live Leak and You Tube Channel was created to host the video. The video claims to show Jihadists on the 21st August launching the same munitions featured in the UN report. Somehow I don't think that the weapons inspectors will find any of these unidentified weapons when the Syrians allow them access? Does anyone else think that there will be a lot of double checking of inventories and documentation going on at the chemical weapons storage facilities? ;)

The claim of how this video surfaced from the video description.

- September 15. Kurdish Peshmerga killed three Syrian terrorists on border. They found a cell phone in a pocket. Night bombing video there. Terrorists on video wear gas masks. Video was shot August 21. One terrorist name it Storm operation.'

cNuBPG_naa8&feature=related

beGNN6QtAgs&feature=related

CdN1LacobzA&feature=related

UN report - Munitions recovered feature from Page 18 (Appendix 5)

http://www.un.org/disarmament/content/slideshow/Secretary_General_Report_of_CW_Investigation.pdf

[Eclectic]

Anyone who has watched a few Syria videos knows these are fake.
The rebels are Allah Akbaring continuously throughout every genuine video.
But then Assad and Putin lie continuously.

The UN report says Assad did it, without writing down the words.
The rockets came from regime territory.
And the sarin was very pure (remember it degrades quickly) which only the regime have the infrastructure to achieve.

Brown Moses pours more scorn on it here: http://brown-moses.********.de/2013/09/videos-claim-to-show-jabhat-al-nusra.html#comment-form

[Lonewolf_50]

Unknown assailants shot Göktuğ Demirarslan, 24, and his Russian girlfriend Elena, 23, seven times with a pump rifle at 11.30 p.m. in Ankara’s Eryaman neighborhood. The couple died immediately. The attacker fled the area and is still at large.
Sound like a hit. Hope they find the jerk who did this. :mad:

[4ROCK]

I can't see a 'pro' using a 'pump rifle'.....whatever one of those is...?!

Presumably it was either a pump action shotgun or an automatic rifle - the end result is pretty much the same when used at close range against an un-armoured target........

[Airborne Aircrew]

4Rock:

There's lots of pump action, (also known as Slide Action), rifles. They tend to be most common chambered for .22LR but here's a .223.

Link (http://www.remingtonle.com/rifles/7615.htm)

[Roland Pulfrew]

Eclectic The UN report says Assad did it.

The rockets came from regime territory.


Err, no it doesn't. It does not say who was responsible and it does not say where the rockets were launched from and who held the territory at that time. Stop just regurgitating UK/US propaganda - lots of people are, if not lying, stating half thruths as fact in this one. :rolleyes:

Edited to ask where the report states: the sarin was very pure ?

I must be missing that in the UN report.

[Pontius Navigator]

lots of people are, if not lying, stating half thruths as fact in this one. :rolleyes:

Not something of course that happened in Iraq; why are we not surprised that the public are sceptical.

Of course Afg was much better, quick in and out, one year, not a shot fired.:\

[Eclectic]

According to UN report "reverse azimuth" analysis, NNE from Moadarmiyeh is the Mezzeh Military Airport. Thus the Soviet 140mm M-14 rockets with sarin-filled warheads found there were launched from the Mezzeh military airport area (as I have said earlier on this thread). Something validated by:
_gLsKrB2PV8

[Pontius Navigator]

Eclectic, that statement is wholly useless.

While the origin and equipment cited may both be correct you have not qualified who was in control of the airfield at the time. Was the airfield controlled in depth? Who controlled the airfield at the time? Who controlled the target area?

The airfield is ENE from your stated target area. That suggests that the firing location or target are pretty vague.

[500N]

I read somewhere and I can't find the article that Turkey had already
warned Syria that they would shoot down Syrian Helicopters if
they strayed over the border or if they were in Syrian Air space
and firing towards Turkey.

I think this occurred after an earlier incident earlier this year as
I vaguely remember the date on the article being June or July.

[Eclectic]

Mezzeh Military Airport is the home of Assad's 2nd mechanised. Part of his elite forces. It has been in Assad's hands continuously throughout the conflict.

Map: Mezzeh Military Airport (http://wikimapia.org/13108061/Mezzeh-Military-Airport)
Mezzeh Wiki: Mezzeh - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mezzeh)

[Courtney Mil]

500N,

Turkey did say exactly that after the F4 was shot down. First week of July, if memory serves. They had a number of Syrian helos approach the border and they scramble the F-16s, but the helos did not cross the border then so they left them alone.

It's good ROE, though.

[500N]

Thanks Courtney, that would have been it.

I just can't find the article which had the paragraph in it
but it seemed pretty B&W to me what they would do
and now they have done it.

Agree it is good ROE.


I wonder if Syria was calling Turkey's bluff to see what
they would do s a precursor to a later action ?

[VinRouge]

Video footage of FSA/AlQ animals shooting at unarmed aircrew floating down on parachutes from said helicopter.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=fe5_1379358778

There is more footage of the poor guys head they captured on another thread.

RIP. :(

[racedo]

Sound like a hit. Hope they find the jerk who did this.

Wonder was GF a FSB plant and someone needed to settle a score and send a strong message ?

[Rosevidney1]

FSA and AQI are the vilest of primitive savages. I hope they all rot. :mad:

[Eclectic]

Re helicopter. These were the guys dropping barrel bombs, white phosphorous and sarin on bread queues.
Re FSA. Up against the Turkish border it is more likely to be ISIS, al Nusra or the Kurds.
It is a nasty war. In May Assad forces entered some Sunni villages and spent a couple of days ethnically cleansing. About 800 civilians killed, including many women and children.
http://baniasmassacre.********.co.uk/

[Courtney Mil]

I understand the sentiments, but I must have missed the bit in the video where they shot the aircrew in their parachutes?

[Ronald Reagan]

It will be such fun for the FSA and other rebels if Assad wins this:ok:

[Airborne Aircrew]

Courtney:

I understand the sentiments, but I must have missed the bit in the video where they shot the aircrew in their parachutes?

Maybe I'm way out of the loop but I want to know what aircrew are parachuting from a falling helicopter...

[VinRouge]

Footage of the downed aircraft and parachutes here.....

LiveLeak.com - Footage after Turkey shot down Syrian helicopter and killing its pilots

Disturbing footage shows Syrian helicopter pilot who was 'shot down by Turkish forces and then beheaded by rebels' | Mail Online (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2423831/Disturbing-footage-shows-Syrian-helicopter-pilot-shot-Turkish-forces-beheaded-rebels.html)

[TEEEJ]

Russia Today is now spinning the Jihadist video for all they are worth.;)
You can almost hear the Syrian intelligence network trying to play the Russians on this one.

AFP are reporting that the Syrians have handed over materials implicating the rebels in the chemical attack.
Russia is also being reported as saying that the UN report is "biased and one-sided".

Anyone predict what is going to appear next from the Syrians?
Will they now 'capture' a Jihadist unit (Specifically Liwa al-Islam) and their stockpile of the unidentified rockets as featured in the UN report?
The Russians have reportedly linked Liwa al-Islam to the attack and the video claiming to be from the 21st August features the group and their flags.

There is also reportedly a high explosive variant of the unidentified munition that features in the UN report.

0eIrXubJAgE&feature=related

JSBcbNUf7gk&feature=related

E0lzUvozF1c&feature=related

[Lonewolf_50]

Dare I suggest, in light of the thread title, that "It" isn't coming?

Maybe not.

UNSC Resolution 2118 seems to call for Blue Helmets to be involved. Who will offer blue helmeted soldiers, and in what forms, remains to be seen.

Watch this space.
Full text of the resolution is here (http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2013/sc11135.doc.htm), you have to go about 1/3 down the page to get past the PR fluff and read the Resolution fluff ...

Paragraphs 10, 16, and 21 note that the Security Council ...
“10. Encourages Member States to provide support, including personnel, technical expertise, information, equipment, and financial and other resources and assistance, in coordination with the Director-General of the OPCW and the Secretary-General, to enable the OPCW and the United Nations to implement the elimination of the Syrian Arab Republic’s chemical weapons programme, and decides to authorize Member States to acquire, control, transport, transfer and destroy chemical weapons identified by the Director-General of the OPCW, consistent with the objective of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to ensure the elimination of the Syrian Arab Republic’s chemical weapons programme in the soonest and safest manner;

“16. Endorses fully the Geneva Communiqué of 30 June 2012 (Annex II),
which sets out a number of key steps beginning with the establishment of a
transitional governing body exercising full executive powers, which could
include members of the present Government and the opposition and other groups and shall be formed on the basis of mutual consent;

“21. Decides, in the event of non-compliance with this resolution, including unauthorized transfer of chemical weapons, or any use of chemical weapons by anyone in the Syrian Arab Republic, to impose measures under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter;

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

So, all sides try to send representatives to the body but, unsurprisingly, there is no mutual consent.
This Resolution is another total waste of everybody's time.

Can we please include, in the Oxford PPE course and its US equivalent (which seem to be pre-requisites for senior Government positions these days), the fact that if national leaders get caught lying their asses off, nobody is going to believe your Government for the next generation? And that this might seriously screw up your ability to achieve anything at all internationally for 30 years+.
If TB is going to have "IRAQ" on his tombstone, may I suggest the number of deaths caused is not carved, but a nuclear-powered electronic totaliser with at least 8 digits, because the knock-on consequences are going to keep adding up a long time after the last trooper pulled out of Basra.


..

[Archimedes]

You might not believe it, but ISTR that the Oxford PPE course includes that...

I'm going on 2nd hand information there (I did history), but I am 99% certain that this was the sort of thing that legions of eager PPE students, most of them without the first thought of going into politics, were earnestly lectured about in both the politics and philosophy parts of the degree.

Of course, since one doesn't (didn't) actually have to turn up to any of the lectures at Oxford for the non-science subjects, and can (could) get away with it via listening in tutorials and reading fairly widely, you can drop the lectures for the political networking which'll get you onto the parliamentary candidates list ...

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I believe it, Archimedes.
I hardly think the Oxford dons would omit Machiavelli's "Wars begin when you will, but do not end when you please".

So, what was TB doing instead of attending lectures??

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/organgrinder/blair_handgesture.jpg

[Archimedes]

By the looks of it, indulging in some perceptive self analysis.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

'bout the last time he did.

Me, reading Engineering, I went to lectures - rather a lot of them (35 hrs a week, inc.practicals). Learned lots of useful stuff too. Novel concept for a degree, apparently.

[Archimedes]

It'll never catch on...

Since I was there at the time of Norman Stone in his pomp and several other 'characters', I attended a fair number of lectures.

It was just that none of them was directly relevant to the modules I was doing (for those, I could read in great detail in the space of two days what the person who wrote the book was going to take five weeks to say, and their prose was often much more entertaining than their lecturing, since their witty conversation didn't translate to performing in front of an audience of thirty or forty people)...

Stone would've had more than one or two pithy comments to make about the wisdom of intervention in Syria or Iraq, but seems to have been overlooked by the press since he left for Turkey.

[Lonewolf_50]

It appears as though PM Medvedev of Russia has been reading my posts on PPRuNe (http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/01/21273953-russian-leader-medvedev-calls-for-syria-peace-conference-by-end-of-year?lite).
"I think that the ideas that are sometimes put forward -- let's exclude President Assad and then agree on everything -- are unrealistic as long as Assad is in power," Medvedev said.

"He's not mad. He must receive some kind of guarantees or, in any case, some kind of proposals on the development of political dialogue in Syria itself, on possible elections, on his personal fate."
As I've been saying since this civil war began and the "Arab Spring spreading to Syria" meme developed, B.Assad has seen the fate of Saddam and Mubarak, and isn't interested in being put into such positions.

Meanwhile, in some good news, Hezbollah seems to have a problem tracking a recent UPS shipment (http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/31/21266851-israeli-attack-destroys-russian-missiles-headed-from-syria-to-hezbollah-us-officials-say?lite) ... courtesy of the IAF.

Not sure if the offcial Israeli line is air tight, but it seems consistent with a few of their more recent exercises of air power in that area.

[500N]

Israel must love the fact that it can bomb away at these types of targets
and the opposition / enemy can't say or do a damn thing about it.

Must be perfect for them.

[Alber Ratman]

This lot helps..

SYRIAN "A-TEAM" - YouTube :E

[tartare]

Once again a well executed mission... much respect to the IAF.

[ORAC]

Reference the UN SC Resolution which stated clearly..... (http://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/513470-here-comes-syria-86.html#post8075120) ....“21. Decides, in the event of non-compliance with this resolution, including unauthorized transfer of chemical weapons, or any use of chemical weapons by anyone in the Syrian Arab Republic, to impose measures under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter......

Use of chemical weapons continues in Syria (http://www.janes.com/article/56970/use-of-chemical-weapons-continues-in-syria)

The Executive Council of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (https://www.opcw.org/about-opcw/) (OPCW) on 23 November 2015 expressed "grave concern" that chemical weapons (CW) had once again been used in Syria after its fact-finding mission (FFM) confirmed "with the utmost confidence" that sulphur mustard had been deployed in an attack on the rebel-held town of Marea on 21 August.

OPCW Report (https://www.opcw.org/fileadmin/OPCW/EC/M-50/en/ecm50dec01_e_.pdf)

.....Hereby:
1. Expresses grave concern regarding the findings of the Fact-Finding Mission that chemical weapons have once again been used in the Syrian Arab Republic, and in this regard:

(a) underscores that, with respect to the incident in Marea, Syrian Arab Republic, on 21 August 2015, the report of the Fact-Finding Mission confirmed “with the utmost confidence that at least two people were exposed to sulfur mustard” and that it is “very likely that the effects of sulfur mustard resulted in the death of a baby” (S/1320/2015); and

(b) further underscores that, with respect to several incidents in the Idlib Governorate of the Syrian Arab Republic between 16 March 2015 and 20 May 2015, the report of the Fact-Finding Mission concluded that they “likely involved the use of one or more toxic chemicals—probably containing the element chlorine—as a weapon” with an “outcome of exposure [that] was fatal in six cases in Sarmin,” including those of three children in the same family (S/1319/2015)......

[glad rag]

Nice find Albert

:ok:

[Lonewolf_50]

For those interested in what Chapter VII | United Nations (http://www.un.org/en/sections/un-charter/chapter-vii/index.html) actually says:


Article 39
The Security Council shall determine the existence of any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression and shall make recommendations, or decide what measures shall be taken in accordance with Articles 41 and 42, to maintain or restore international peace and security.


Article 40
In order to prevent an aggravation of the situation, the Security Council may, before making the recommendations or deciding upon the measures provided for in Article 39, call upon the parties concerned to comply with such provisional measures as it deems necessary or desirable. Such provisional measures shall be without prejudice to the rights, claims, or position of the parties concerned. The Security Council shall duly take account of failure to comply with such provisional measures.

Article 41
The Security Council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the Members of the United Nations to apply such measures. These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations.

Article 42
Should the Security Council consider that measures provided for in Article 41 would be inadequate or have proved to be inadequate, it may take such action by air, sea, or land forces as may be necessary to maintain or restore international peace and security. Such action may include demonstrations, blockade, and other operations by air, sea, or land forces of Members of the United Nations.
Since the UNSCR is of divided opinion among its veto holding members, BFA will be done.


It goes on to Article 51
Article 51
Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Measures taken by Members in the exercise of this right of self-defence shall be immediately reported to the Security Council and shall not in any way affect the authority and responsibility of the Security Council under the present Charter to take at any time such action as it deems necessary in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.
If the Syrian government makes the appeal that All Of These Foreigners are on their turf and are aiding people who are trying to overthrow their government, can they not appeal to their operating under Article 51 in their own right?

[ORAC]

The Aviationist: Watch Russian Tu-22M bomber perform high-altitude old-fashioned carpet bombing in Syria (http://theaviationist.com/2016/01/25/watch-russian-tu-22m-bomber-perform-high-altitude-old-fashioned-carpet-bombing-in-syria/)

55ni9KbpSv4

[ORAC]

All text From SNAFU! (http://snafu-solomon.********.co.uk/2016/02/russian-su-35s-to-do-combat-air-patrols.html): Russian SU-35s to do combat air patrols 24 hours a day over Khmeimim Syrian Air Force Base. Are they prepping for conventional combat?

via
BN 02/05 14:32 *RIA CITES RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY ON KHMEIMIM AIRBASE PATROL
*RUSSIA: SU-35 JETS TO BE ON 24/7 PATROL NEAR SYRIA AIRBASE: RIA
2016-02-05 14:31:42.371 GMT
--ALEXEI ANISHCHUK

Ok, what do we know for sure?

1. The peace talks broke down (http://news.yahoo.com/syria-regime-forces-enter-besieged-villages-aleppo-advance-083952791.html) and Kerry is blaming the Russians for not halting their aerial offensive.

2. Saudi Arabia says that its ready to send troops to Syria (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/04/saudi-arabia-ground-troops-syria-fight-isis) in a US led coalition.

3. Russia says that they have indications that Turkey is preparing for a ground incursion into Syria (http://news.yahoo.com/russian-defence-ministry-says-suspects-turkey-preparing-incursion-135953608.html).

4. Days ago Russia sent SU-35's to Syria (http://tass.ru/en/defense/854549)to augment other fighters already in that country.

5. We just found out that Russian SU-35's will do combat air patrols 24 hours a day over the airbase they're harbored in.

Do the Russians believe that a Turkish incursion is imminent? Are they trying to "shape" the battlefield ahead of an air war? Or is this simply a bluff to get Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the US to back off?

I have no idea.

[AreOut]

sending their planes to Latakia airbase wasn't a bluff since they are obviously using them for months...I doubt this is bluff, the trend will likely continue

[Lonewolf_50]

All text From SNAFU! (http://snafu-solomon.********.co.uk/2016/02/russian-su-35s-to-do-combat-air-patrols.html): Russian SU-35s to do combat air patrols 24 hours a day over Khmeimim Syrian Air Force Base. Are they prepping for conventional combat?
If the term "combat air patrols" being used doctrinally or journalistically?

CAP has a particular meaning. If they launch as a defensive cap to protect the airbase, that's one thing. If they launch armed air to ground for "on call CAS' that's another matter. If they are up near the border waiting for Turkish aircraft to cross into Syria ....


From American Joint Doctrine (Joint Pub 3-01.2 (I recall NATO doctrine on this as being very similar, but it's been a decade or so ... ) Combat Air Patrol. A CAP is an aircraft patrol provided over an objective area, over the force protected, over the critical area of a combat zone, or over an air defense area for the purpose of intercepting and destroying hostile aircraft before they reach their target or weapons release point. CAPs are used to provide temporary air superiority to protect friendly air or surface forces from air attack during the conduct of their operations. Although a CAP flight can patrol a general area or defend a localized area, it could also be positioned between the expected threat and the friendly forces to act as a fighter screen or barrier. CAP flights also contribute directly to DCA operations when they intercept and destroy enemy offensive aircraft before they can pose a threat to friendly forces.In what sense is that term being used, I wonder?

[A_Van]

Definitely, it was a "journalistic b..it" meaning of CAP. How the 24/7 air patrolling could be arranged having just 4-6 aircraft for this purpose at the airbase? Nonsense.


In reality it seems there will be a couple of machines "standing" near the strip with somewhat 2-3 min readiness to take off.


The following article indirectly confirms that (sorry, it's in Russian):
?????????? ??-35 ????? ???????? ? ????? ?? ????? (http://defendingrussia.ru/a/rossijskije_su35_budut_dezhurit_v_sirii_po_param-5056/)

[TEEEJ]

Interesting footage from Syria of the Su-35S. The first missile in the footage on the inner pylons is the R-77-1 which is an improved variant of the R-77.

gpVEWipSx5k&feature=related

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-77

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gpVEWipSx5k

[ORAC]

Russia doubles down in Syria (http://capx.co/russia-doubles-down-in-syria/)

"Russia may not want a war with Turkey, but there are signs it is softening up Russian public opinion in case it needs to make the case for conflict. By so doing it is playing a dangerous game as it is upping the stakes in the Syrian war and thus challenging its rivals to respond or back down. A recent sign of this is a subtle, and mostly overlooked, shift in a small section of the Russian media concerning responsibility for the bombing of the Russian airliner over the Egyptian Sinai in October late last year.

Relations between the two countries, which have been rivals for centuries, took a sharp downturn in November after the Turks shot down a Russian jet on the border with Syria. There was a brief flurry of bellicose rhetoric from Moscow and Ankara, but, with neither side wanting a real shooting match to break out that then settled down. However, with the war in Syria reaching another critical phase the rhetoric has begun to flare again.

Last autumn Moscow quickly blamed ISIS linked terrorists for bringing down the Russian Airbus A321 over Sinai with the lost of 224 lives. Most Western intelligence agencies concurred, albeit after a longer period of investigation. This didn’t change, even after the Russian jet was shot down by the Turks. Russia later named ISIS as responsible for the Sinai attack, and ISIS itself published a photograph of what it said was the bomb.

However this month, a Kremlin friendly Russian newspaper Kommersant (http://kommersant.ru/)published an article suggesting that in fact the Turkish ultra nationalist terror group The Grey Wolves (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/turkish-elections-turkeys-kurd-hating-grey-wolves-spreading-neo-nazi-poison-across-europe-1504725) may have been behind the Sinai attack, claiming that a baggage handler suspected of planting the bomb had been in Turkey shortly before the atrocity. This story was followed up by the Sputnik news service (http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20160201/1034017414/grey-wolves-a321-fsb.html) which is a mouthpiece for the Kremlin. It repeated the implausible idea that the Islamist hating Grey Wolves were in league with ISIS. Increasing numbers of Russians are also buying into the idea that ISIS is supported by the Turkish state, another idea promulgated by Kremlin sources.

So, if this is a classic propaganda push the question is why now? The answer appears to be the situation in Syria."..............[more]

[A_Van]

A view from inside Russia, if you like :-)


The media mentioned (Kommersant) is obviously not the one being read by half-witted fans of Kremlin whose anger could be easily manipulated. It is rather a newspaper for educated white collars who are massively losing their office jobs during the ongoing economical crisis. And Sputnik is nearly unknown (e.g. I just heard about it but unlikely ever browsed). In general, the topic of "Turkish trace" in the A321 tragedy over Sinai is not of big interest here because terrorists have no nationality.

[MATELO]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/update-air-strikes-against-daesh

[airsound]

With all the international concern about the Russian killing of uninvolved civilians in its bombing raids, I wonder if a major factor has been missed.

'Western' coalition air forces take some pride in making clear that their airborne weapons are carefully targeted. It seems that they do, mostly, manage to minimise so-called collateral damage. They can only do this by using precision guided munitions (PGMs) - or smart weapons - the ultimate of which is, perhaps, Brimstone.

If the Aviationist film of Tu-22Ms dropping FAB 250 dumb bombs is to be believed (ORAC's 26 Jan post, #1715), that could be the major cause of much collateral damage. FAB 250s are 1940s-era unguided bombs. In order to destroy a point target using these weapons, you have to use Second World War 'carpet bombing' techniques. It's the blitzkrieg, all over again.

I don't see any journalistic reports citing this as a cause of the unacceptable human tragedies apparently being caused by the Russian Air Force raids.

airsound

[AreOut]

Russians use guided bombs too, although unguided prevail(those soviet-era ammo depots are due to some cleaning).

[A_Van]

2 airsound


A couple of comments on your latest post....

1. Tu-22.
Footage with Tu-22 dropping dumb bombs from above the clouds could be found "in tonns" in the TV archives all over the world. I saw such promo footage even in early 70's being a school boy. One may show B-52 making carpet bombing over Vietnam, and so what?
In Syria, Tu-22M3 (as well as Tu-160's) were used just a few times, by the way. Just to show that the region could be reached from the Russian territory. Operation wise it makes no sense because when you have to fly that far, the weight of bombs that can be delivered is the same as for Su-24 operated locally (and even less than for Su-34).

2. Dumb vs smart.
In the conditions like those in Syrian skies currently (no air defence, no jammers, etc.) the intelligence onboard the moderns aircraft (hi-pres. navigation, radars, IR, powerful computers, etc.) can well compensate lack of self-guiding capabilities in munitions. Those interested might have a look at the following 40+ years old publication reporting that dispersion is measured in a few tens of meters:

https://books.google.co.il/books?id=dc7v1uGkwfMC&pg=PA210&lpg=PA210&dq=bomb+dispersion+errors&source=bl&ots=qDdTt5hCY1&sig=o-4uWNbLpwx-XxkedN85GSxGMpI&hl=iw&sa=X&ved=0CB0Q6AEwAGoVChMIpPfX9vGFyAIVCjkUCh1q_Q_t#v=onepage&q=bomb%20dispersion%20errors&f=false

Moreover, having smart munitions is not enough. Correct target identification is another "must have" component. We all hear periodically that USAF hit some civilians in the area (the last case was a hospital in Afghanistan). Most likely the bombs/missiles did not miss the target, but were given a wrong one. And this is the point where having ground based forces is important (that could see with their own eyes where is a hospital and where is the terrorist command post). The Russian do have such a capability through the Assad's forces and spies/collaborators who are everywhere in the area as they are indistinguishable from the common population.

[Backinblack]

Russia Claims Turkey for Systematic Shell Attacks upon Syria

Russia Claims Turkey for Systematic Shell Attacks upon Syria (http://mil.today/2016/Syria2/)

[NutLoose]

Strange world isn't it,
In a war that both the East and West have been dragged into it with the aim of defeating Daesh, it appears that the mistakes on both sides have resulted in an escalation in rhetoric and the ramping up of aggressive posturing by both parties involved that may ultimately mean the only winners could be those that both sides had originally set out to destroy.

[Hangarshuffle]

The air war in particular has been extensively reported bravely by ITNs Channel 4 news team (UK) these last two evenings. Showed pictures of the remains of a Russian built surface to surface missile that had struck a hospital. Today showed pictures of what they described were bursting cluster bombs in an urban area of Aleppo. Overhead a jet plane could be glimpsed at some altitude - a Mig 29 or Su 27 to my untrained eye I guessed.
The bombing and its results could be variously described as ruthless, or professional or deliberate or a crime. Certainly C4 said many in fact mostly civilians including children were killed - left " eviscerated and limbless" I think they said.
I'm not a real gambler but I would guess to bet Assad and his backer President Putin are getting towards the verge of a victory this year, based on this news report.400 odd sorties by Russian planes in the last week (think I heard that right) are tipping the balance their way. Their simple aim to remove the so-called rebels entirely and restore full Syrian Governmental order.
Q. What was Britain trying to achieve again with our limited air strikes, someone remind me?

[Lonewolf_50]

Q. What was Britain trying to achieve again with our limited air strikes, someone remind me? Have you bothered to read up on the various PR releases from the UK on the air operations? Odds are, some actual statements from those will give you and idea. (Key word ISIS or ISIL might be useful in your Google search term).

Or was that a rhetorical question?

[Out Of Trim]

HS as stupid as ever!

The UK is targeting ISIS as declared by your government. Perhaps you will understand these things one day, but I'm not holding my breath.

When will you learn? :(

[MSOCS]

2. Dumb vs smart.
In the conditions like those in Syrian skies currently (no air defence, no jammers, etc.) the intelligence onboard the moderns aircraft (hi-pres. navigation, radars, IR, powerful computers, etc.) can well compensate lack of self-guiding capabilities in munitions. Those interested might have a look at the following 40+ years old publication reporting that dispersion is measured in a few tens of meters:

A Van. You may be disheartened to know that a stick of dumb bombs - and look at those videos to see how big a stick these Russian bombers were/are dropping - do not have a dispersion of "tens of meters"; in fact, I'd be surprised if the weapon effect doesn't cover a few hundred meters but probably much more. Get real mate. You're fooling nobody and you're starting to sound like Lord Haw Haw. Those large Russian bombers are carpet bombing. Plain and simple. The latest hit on the Syrian hospital and surrounding area is not the MO of any western, responsible player. Take note.

You also make a point about target ID, which I agree partly with. However you then completely undermine your point by saying Assad's forces are giving Russian aircraft the intelligence on where the bad guys are. You fail to realise that in taking Assad's forces' target ID at face value, Russia is either complicit in mass genocide, or being manipulated beyond belief. Assad wants to quell the uprising, which means taking the rebels out. Are you that naive?

Milosevic, Karadic, etc, thought they could get away with barbarity such as this in the FRY and Kosovo but their forces were neutered and the leaders later tried for war crimes.

The way I see things right now, Putin is lining himself to stand alongside that other abhorrent idealist that fell with Berlin! This will not end well.

[Courtney Mil]

Hangarshuffle,

I'm not sure if you're trying to wind people up or if you truly do not understand.

You are confusing a national conflict led by a corrupt dictator, aided by an equally corrupt foreign power against his own people and their children with a legitimately sanctioned international mission against a barbaric, sadistic and very dangerous terrorist organisation with the aim of saving life, preventing suffering and preserving your way of life.

As for "limited air strikes", we can only attack what we know to be targets. You complain if our forces don't attack enough, you go berserk if they they attack too much and increase the risk of collateral damage.

You will whinge about it either way in your usual anti-military way.

[Hangarshuffle]

CM, bit of both.
Just be trawling through the online papers, the west's efforts in the war amount to very little print coverage today.
No one cares y'know? It just doesn't factor to the average Briton-paper editors probably know this anyway. Those RAF crews flying combat Syria at great risk are being made to risk their lives for exactly what? Who cares here>?
Its hard to see what we are doing will do anything other than what? What's the outcome now? Give me a forecast then?
Our RAF aircraft target ISIL known targets which are deemed to be fighting the people we want to ultimately run Syria.
But in a parallel situation, Russia targets the people we want to run the country in a far more brutal, yet effective manner.
Assad's winning this hands down. We backed the wrong horse, in a way.
We (RAF I mean) did try to help some of the people. Its just seems to me that Putin has out thought and out maneuverer
d the west, entirely.
I take offence at people who say I am anti-military/whinging. Just a casual civilian observer these days, taking occasional time to understand the world about me - you post what you want on PPRUNE. If it offends the very conservative traditional I truly don't care, in fact I enjoy it.


*If a Russian plane was shot down, whilst it was cluster bombing an obviously urban civilian area in Syria, and the crews were as fortunate or not to end in western backed hands, would they tried as war criminals? This could happen. Are they war criminals? Likely they will die on the spot, but who knows.


Whatever we have done here, it just hasn't worked to the benefit of bringing an end to the conflict or sparing the entirely innocent in Syria from the wrath of air power or obscene on-the- ground terrorism. Perhaps it was an honest try by decent people, but has it worked>?


Time to call it off and end it, really. Cease the RAF air ops There's only going to be one winner. HS.

[ORAC]

Operation wise it makes no sense because when you have to fly that far, the weight of bombs that can be delivered is the same as for Su-24 operated locally (and even less than for Su-34).........In the conditions like those in Syrian skies currently (no air defence, no jammers, etc.) the intelligence onboard the moderns aircraft (hi-pres. navigation, radars, IR, powerful computers, etc.) can well compensate lack of self-guiding capabilities in munitions. Those interested might have a look at the following 40+ years old publication reporting that dispersion is measured in a few tens of meters

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[A_Van]

"Appears" is the key word here. A fragment with an aircraft, and then a fragment looking like bombing/shelling of some city. One can assemble whatever footage on his/her home computer. Could be A-10, Tornado, and so on and so forth, including nuke "mushrooms"....Nothing but a proofless propaganda form some jihaddists; sad that it is copied on such forums.

[Out Of Trim]

Looks like untargeted, pretty indiscriminate bombing to me using cluster weapons over a large built-up area.

Unlike the Western targeted precision strikes!

HS, How does withdrawing the RAF element help the situation. They are helping alleviate the subjugation of a large number of Syrian civilians by ISIS. This has nothing to do with the Russian bombing of the rebels and civilians alike while they back Assad's Syrian Army. :ugh:

[Hangarshuffle]

Out of trim you tell me, I'm not in charge. I just observe.
It looks as thought the RAF's role over Syria has ended anyway. Or is rapidly drawing down from what was pretty low intensity anyway. My source? MODs own websites and the RAFs own on-going operations page. Today.
RAF - Current Operations (http://www.raf.mod.uk/currentoperations/)


https://www.gov.uk/government/news/update-air-strikes-against-daesh


Nearly all the operations seem to be going on against Daesh (formally ISIL) in northern Iraq. UK currently have an availability of aircraft but they don't appear to be used that much.
Not even listed on the current ops. What does that tell you?


It was another Cameron spin then, all the hullabaloo on the vote etc?
My guess? UK has now withdrawn from the Syrian civil war due to a lack of ISIL/DAESH targets? But the real war goes on elsewhere.

[Courtney Mil]

Hangarshuffle,

I'm sorry, I sometimes find it hard to follow the thrust of your posts, especially when you just construct a string of six rhetorical questions. I also wasn't sure which article your link was supposed to be sending me to. But I can tell you this: Ops are not winding down, because the Government has not ordered that.

In response to your point about utilisation of UK air assets, they can only strike targets when they are identified and tasked as such following a rigorous process. You would be one of the first to shout 'foul' if the RAF were to hit something that was not a legitimate target.

[Hangarshuffle]

I wouldn't shout foul, ever. I never have or ever did once the start button was pressed. I just think this always was a pointless war for the RAF to be forced into, which they were always going to be on the wrong foot in being made to pursue. Assad with his invited Russian air force has this nailed down now. It was just another yet another total waste of UK money and effort.

[Stanwell]

Coming from the Oz side, what are our assets doing there?
Helping to keep the arabs or the Russians honest?
Time we went home and left them to it, methinks.
(Assuming we should have been there in the first place).

[racedo]

Have you bothered to read up on the various PR releases from the UK on the air operations?

Supporting 70,000 moderate rebels who love kittens according to David Cameron.................... though I made up the kitten part.

Wonder where all these 70,000 are now as they seem to have disappeared quickly as otherwise Call me Dave would be lying.

[ORAC]

Not sure if this is the right thread, as a definite intent towards moving into Syria at the end of the exercise is missing. But with the other Saudi deployments and nuclear flag waving - and echoes of the preparation for GW I/II, it is ominous.....

Riyadh is looking to display willingness and capability to affect the status quo militarily (http://neurope.eu/article/northern-thunder-saudi-arabia-as-a-military-superpower/)

The Northern Thunder military exercise that began on Monday is a show of power designed to pass the message that Saudi Arabia is a regional security provider, leading a Sunni coalition against Daesch. This is the largest indigenous army the region has ever seen. How many troops will participate depends on whom you read: 150,000-350,000 troops could be engaged.

The gathering of one of the largest Muslim force in history is a significant message for Daesch, but others may interpret the message differently. The Sunni common denominator of all the powers invited to participate could also be seen as a message to Assad, to Iran, and, finally, to Russia.

Saudi leadership is also a message in-itself. This multinational force is officially coordinating its efforts with the United States and, therefore, has a clear political trajectory that may be seen as predictable, or at least not threatening to the West. But, it is clear that diplomatic discourse changes when someone has the power to physically affect the status quo.

The substance of the drill

On Sunday, troops from the Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Jordan, Senegal, Sudan, Maldives, Morocco, Pakistan, Chad, Tunisia, the Comoro Islands, Djibouti, Malaysia, Egypt, Mauritania, and Mauritius gathered for a military drill to last until March 10.

The drill involves 20 countries, amongst whom, Egypt and Pakistan, both of whom have sizable and equipped armies. Egypt has the largest army in Africa; Pakistan is a nuclear power.

Military substance

The military substance of the drill is inter-operability, in a fighting force with a wide range of military equipment in anyting from fighter jets and tanks, to air defense systems and naval forces. Of those states engaged, only the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members – Saudi, UAE, Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait – have developed interoperability in the so-called Peninsula Shield fighting force. This is an operation much greater in scale.

Strategic messaging

The political and strategic substance of the drill is the show of an army with 350,000 strong troops, 2,500 warplanes, 20,000 tanks and 450 helicopters, under Saudi leadership. The 20-member coalition makes part of a broader 35-member Arab and Muslim (Sunni) coalition put together by Saudi Arabia. If this force ends up deploying ground forces in Syria, what will happen when they encounter Iran-backed forces, such as Hezbollah or the Syrian Army.

Upon a Sunni common denominator, many will read other subtexts, including Arab nationalism. Speaking to “Gulf News” Quatari officials deny the exercise is meant as a warning towards Iran or Russia, but that may be the “collateral effect.” What would happen if one of these Sunni coalition planes shot down a Russian jet fighter; due to the Turkish precedent, that is a fair question.

Saudi jet-fighters are already in Turkey. There is an Iran-Saudi encounter in Yemen, although mostly by proxy. Last week, General Ahmed Asseri of the Saudi military confirmed last week that ground troops stand by to be sent to Syria.

Questions to address

With the Sunni coalition ready to deploy in Syria, the imminent short term question is “how will Iran respond”; if in kind, then this is the beginning of a regional standoff that will have too many variables to be predictable.

In the medium term is who will lead the campaign against the ISIS and Assad. Turkey is not “an supplement” to the military coalition led by Saudi. But, the size of the Saudi led coalition and the willingness to deploy ground troops, could mean that the future course of action may be decided in Riyadh, as much as in Brussels, Washington or Moscow, which is unprecedented.

(Saudi Press Agency, Gulf News, Al Arabiya, National Interest, International Business Times)

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[downsizer]

The Saudis won't be going into Syria at any time, they're too busy having their ass handed to them by the houthis in Yemen.

[A_Van]

I thought that the news was wide spread that those two loser guys spoke on the phone and agreed on the truce...


Here are the sources on both banks of the pond:


US and Russia agree to enforce new Syria ceasefire | World news | The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/22/us-and-russia-agree-to-enforce-new-syria-ceasefire)


U.S. and Russia agree on Syria cease-fire terms, officials say - CBS News (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-and-russia-agree-on-syria-cease-fire-terms-officials-say/)


So, let's wait for some 5 days and see whether it really works.


I am a little bit pessimistic because Assad is actually dancing the Iranian dance (not Russian), and many small dispersed groups called as "fighters for freedom" are controlled/financed by Saudis, Qatar, Turkey and thus are not totally under the full US control.

[ORAC]

Things escalating to a larger regional crisis?

Saudi Troops in Syria Send Shivers Through Tehran (http://europe.newsweek.com/saudi-troops-syria-send-shivers-through-tehran-429657?rm=eu)

UAE issues travel ban to Lebanon, Saudi calls for its citizens to leave | The National (http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/uae-issues-travel-ban-to-lebanon-saudi-calls-for-its-citizens-to-leave)

Could the Syrian Conflict Spread to Lebanon and Russia? (http://europe.newsweek.com/could-syrian-conflict-spread-lebanon-and-russia-429626?rm=eu)

Iran should worry about the Russian agenda - FT.com (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/757e7988-da52-11e5-98fd-06d75973fe09.html)

..........The repercussions of Iran’s aggressive defence of its Shia axis in Arab lands stretch beyond the Middle East. To continue on a path now charted by Russia will sabotage any re-engagement with the west. A Russian victory abetted by Iran in what is left of Syria cannot but be perceived as a huge setback for the US — as well as for a Europe divided by a refugee crisis which still has a long way to go.

An Arab foreign minister says he asked Javad Zarif, Iran’s foreign minister and lead negotiator in last year’s nuclear talks: “Does Iran want to be the leader of the Persian world, or the leader of the Shia world?” In other words: a recognised regional power or the spearhead of a sort of Shia supremacism in permanent conflict with (ever more radical) Sunni supremacism. There is not much time left for Iran to decide whether its international and regional face is that of Mr Zarif or General Soleimani.

[Tourist]

Those videos of yours ORAC just go to show that whilst you may not be able to polish them, you can indeed successfully roll them in glitter...

[ORAC]

Now others are starting to get uneasy - including the EU. (But the Express are just panicking....

EU's Mogherini: War between Russia and Turkey could be on the horizon (http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/EUs-Mogherini-War-between-Russia-and-Turkey-could-be-on-the-horizon-445869)

"We are always referring to Syria as a proxy war among regional actors. This risks to become something bigger than this. I'm not thinking of a cold war. No, we risk a hot war among different actors than the one we always think of. Not necessarily Russia and the United States, but Russia and Turkey, could be. And, as Europeans, we have a clear interest in trying to contain and scale down the tensions,"

Mogherini said during a debate at the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee........

Actual war may replace deputation war: Turkey's Deputy PM (http://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/actual-war-may-replace-deputation-war-turkeys-deputy-pm-2422490)

......."We (Turkey) warn all parties of the deputation war, particularly the United States and Russia, of a coming actual war, which is to replace the ongoing deputation war unless they come up with a human-oriented solution which will satisfy all the parties in Syria," said Kurtulmuş.....................

Saudi Arabia and Turkey prepare war push against Assad in Syria | World | News | Daily Express (http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/647145/Saudi-Turkey-war-Assad-syria)

[ORAC]

Saudi warplanes to arrive at Turkish base on Friday (http://www.todayszaman.com/diplomacy_saudi-warplanes-to-arrive-at-turkish-base-on-friday_413252.html)

Two C-130 military cargo planes, carrying about 30 Saudi Air Force personnel and military equipment had already arrived at İncirlik on Tuesday to prepare for the deployment of fighter jets, the private broadcaster CNN Türk reported, citing diplomatic sources. Four F-15s will arrive at the base on Friday. Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, also on Thursday, said the Saudi warplanes are expected to arrive at İncirlik "today or tomorrow."

With the arrival of the Saudi jets, there will be five foreign countries with aircraft at İncirlik for military missions in Syria. This will also mark the first time Saudi warplanes have been deployed at a Turkish base for military operations.

Çavuşoğlu announced earlier this month that Saudi jets were to be deployed at İncirlik to take part in missions against the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). A Saudi official later said that Saudi jets have been at the base but Turkish officials did not confirm their arrival until now.

Saudi Arabia has also said it was prepared to deploy ground troops to Syria to fight ISIL if the US-led coalition against the extremist group agrees to the offer.

[ORAC]

Syrian rebels and a group monitoring the conflict said insurgents had shot down a warplane over western Syria on Saturday, although there were conflicting accounts on whether it had been brought down by a missile or anti-aircraft guns.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said a rebel group had brought down the jet in Hama province by firing two heat-seeking missiles, saying the plane was most probably Syrian. But a rebel group operating in the area, Jaish al-Nasr, said it had brought down the jet with anti-aircraft guns.

There was no immediate word from the Syrian military.

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