Here it comes: Syria [Archive] - Page 10

Easy Street

14th Apr 2018, 16:14

... on the GR4 retirement schedule - no reason whatsoever (other than funding) that they couldn't have been run on a few extra years, to provide some much needed contingency whilst F35 ramps up.

There’s no reason (other than funding) that we don’t have the biggest and bestest Air Force in the whole world. :hmm: In the real world we have to live within politically-sustainable means. The 2010 SDSR set Tornado’s retirement at 2019 without any compensating uplift elsewhere, so a big win in 2015 was the plan for two additional Typhoon squadrons, which *are* the contingency you speak of. But they cannot be delivered while the Tornado remains in service, unless of course all the vested interests in both Houses of Parliament accept a reduction in Army manpower below 80k. Even that wouldn’t help much due to the delay while recruitment and training took place.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to keep Tornado going. But let’s be positive and reflect that (yet again) combat aircraft have proven their political utility; we have moved a long way from the ridiculous land-centric HERRICK-era arguments that would have stripped the fast jet fleets down to UK QRA only. With any luck their airships will be able to use the recent track record to solidify the rest of the F35 buy and future combat aircraft beyond. Bravo Tornado!

andrewn

14th Apr 2018, 16:31

There’s no reason (other than funding) that we don’t have the biggest and bestest Air Force in the whole world. :hmm: In the real world we have to live within politically-sustainable means. The 2010 SDSR set Tornado’s retirement at 2019 without any compensating uplift elsewhere, so a big win in 2015 was the plan for two additional Typhoon squadrons, which *are* the contingency you speak of. But they cannot be delivered while the Tornado remains in service, unless of course all the vested interests in both Houses of Parliament accept a reduction in Army manpower below 80k. Even that wouldn’t help much due to the delay while recruitment and training took place.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to keep Tornado going. But let’s be positive and reflect that (yet again) combat aircraft have proven their political utility; we have moved a long way from the ridiculous land-centric HERRICK-era arguments that would have stripped the fast jet fleets down to UK QRA only. With any luck their airships will be able to use the recent track record to solidify the rest of the F35 buy and future combat aircraft beyond. Bravo Tornado!

Personally I think it's time we got real - and stopped using phrases like "polically sustainable"! Trump and the French are both setting the example, by significantly redressing the balance after years of cuts. We now need to follow suit, scrap the manpower "cap" thing, commit to a fourth FJ MOB, fully fund the flying hours required. This shouldn't even be a debate, it should just be happening.

Take the point on GR4 though, the future is F35 I agree.

Heathrow Harry

14th Apr 2018, 16:39

Fine - agreed - now all you have to do is convince the Great British Public to

a) pay more tax
b) cut some of their benefits (pension, bus passes, schooling, health service...
c) get re elected.............

just another jocky

14th Apr 2018, 16:39

Nice to see the Tornado being so loved. Makes a change from many previous threads.

ORAC

14th Apr 2018, 16:43

Quick blooding in theatre for the B-1Bs, they only deployed to Qatar under 2 weeks ag (http://www.ellsworth.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1485486/b-1s-deploy-to-centcom/)o.

gr4techie

14th Apr 2018, 17:01

1) is there any point in keeping Tornado when upgraded Typhoon will carry Stormshadow and Brimstone?

2) How's the serviceability rate on Tornado, how many man-hours of maintenance vs flying hours and is it way past it's designed fatigue life ?

It's my opinion that Stormshadow and Brimstone are the only reason why Tornado wasn't scrapped years ago.

Lima Juliet

14th Apr 2018, 17:07

The only point to run it on would be to increase the total numbers of aircraft in the RAF. With the Typhoon there are no new aircraft being ordered, just redistributed from the current fleet?or have I missed an extra order of Typhoon aircraft recently?

ORAC

14th Apr 2018, 17:28

You are looking at the early jets that would have scrapped or sold retained.

recceguy

14th Apr 2018, 17:34

You will notice that US commanders and President Trump now list France before UK, however painful it might be to swallow for some.

Now some numbers :

UK : 4 Tornados from Akrotiri, 2 Storm Shadow each : total 8
France : 5 Rafale from St Dizier (France) 9 Storm Shadow, 3 launched from a French Frigate ("Aquitaine") : total 12

In both raids, fighters in protection, not involved in the bombings :
- Typhoon to protect Tornadoes (needed)
- Mirage 2000-5 to protect Rafales (not as much needed)

Buster15

14th Apr 2018, 17:35

1)
It's my opinion that Stormshadow and Brimstone are the only reason why Tornado wasn't scrapped years ago.

Oh really? So what was the alternative?
You have missed the point. Tornado carries more than the offensive missiles. Just look at how the deaths and injuries from IES's in Afghanistan dropped when GR4 recce operation with RAPTOR took place. It has been stated that over 60% of all allied intelligence was supplied by the RAF. Some from UAV but the majority by Tornado.

Just This Once...

14th Apr 2018, 17:37

Given the relative proximity I am slightly surprised that the GR4s only carried 2 missiles each, rather than the maximum of 4 (presuming the clearances are in place).

Pontius Navigator

14th Apr 2018, 17:43

JTO, wreapon/target matching? Cost? Political demonstration rather than military effect?

Airbubba

14th Apr 2018, 17:50

Support is not just missiles on target though is it.

Absolutely. From what I could see from various online tracking sites, significant numbers of RAF MRTT tankers, Typhoons and other aircraft like the R1 Sentinel were active in theater at the time of the attack. It is surprising to me that they weren't mentioned in the initial MoD news release.

It almost seemed like the MoD release about the four Tornados was meant to minimize UK participation to appease critics back home. Of course, now that the attack is being heralded as a success, hopefully more UK assets will bask in the glory.

The UK's unflinching loyalty to America in times of military need is always appreciated. :ok:

The Med was full of the 100th ARW Quid tankers from Mildenhall last night, both KC-135's and some visiting KC-10's. And perhaps a couple of those planes were not tankers but working with a borrowed callsign as in past events. ;)

Bravo Zulu to all on a job well done. :ok:

Onceapilot

14th Apr 2018, 17:58

Given the relative proximity I am slightly surprised that the GR4s only carried 2 missiles each, rather than the maximum of 4 (presuming the clearances are in place).

Come-on JTO, I think you know some of the variables. :ok: What surprises me, a little, is the reference to Typhoon and M2 involvement as "protection". Now, do I understand that Fighter "protection" of "bombers" is de-rigeuer or, is this an overkill, esp with SO weapons?
Beyond that, well done to all who risked their necks.

OAP

ORAC

14th Apr 2018, 18:04

Now, do I understand that Fighter "protection" of "bombers" is de-rigeuer or, is this an overkill, esp with SO weapons? Better to have it, and not need it; than need it, and not have it.

Onceapilot

14th Apr 2018, 18:36

Better to have it, and not need it; than need it, and not have it.
Quite so. However, although the whole situation here is specific to the circumstances, I get the feeling that the "Fighter" component would be pretty much as vulnerable to the hi-tech Russian missile air defences (if used) as the "Bombers" themselves. Interesting. If the Russian air defence assets had been used, I can see the Fighter escort acting to dilute kill probability (soaking up the shots), engaging opposing Fighters in air combat as escort or HVAA protection.
Very interesting, esp when you consider the concept of Ops for the two new UK carriers, supposedly operating without land based support but, needing 5th Gen capabilities! :uhoh:

OAP

ORAC

14th Apr 2018, 18:46

As reported the airspace was jam packed with aircraft - including tankers, C4I, SEAD, EW and doubtless many CSAR/MV-22 etc. I am sure the Typhoons were on CAP, just not necessarily to protect the GR4s.

I suspect Nicosia ATCC turned off their radar and went home.....

SirPeterHardingsLovechild

14th Apr 2018, 19:01

Demonstration at Akrotiri Main Gate expected at noon tomorrow (Sunday)

JPJP

14th Apr 2018, 19:03

Come-on JTO, I think you know some of the variables. :ok: What surprises me, a little, is the reference to Typhoon and M2 involvement as "protection". Now, do I understand that Fighter "protection" of "bombers" is de-rigeuer or, is this an overkill, esp with SO weapons?
Beyond that, well done to all who risked their necks.

OAP

Typhoon was there to protect the French Mirage, in case of a hasty retreat. Ummm, I meant a ‘fighting withdrawal’.

:E

Onceapilot

14th Apr 2018, 19:04

[QUOTE=ORAC;10118488]As reported the airspace was jam packed with aircraft - including tankers, C4I, SEAD, EW and doubtless many CSAR/MV-22 etc. I am sure the Typhoons were on CAP, just not necessarily to protect the GR4s.

It would seem, maybe so. In fact, I doubt that the Typhoons were directly tied to the GR4's at all?
So, going back to my comment about the forthcoming mighty carriers (2). I wonder under what circumstances they could politically operate in combat Ops (at risk of loss) without the total support of ground based assets? Politically, it will not happen. :oh:

OAP

larssnowpharter

14th Apr 2018, 19:11

I noticed that the general giving the Pentagon briefing to the press corps failed to answer a valid question from one of the assembled members of the 4th Estate. The question was along the lines of, 'Were any of the allied aircraft painted by Russian radar?'

Other questions focused on 'deconfliction'.

I would find it difficult to believe, given that the attack was telegraphed, that the Russians had no knowledge of the attack after it was in progress.

Could it be that they were content to let this, admittedly limited, attack succeed?

Airbubba

14th Apr 2018, 19:40

Reports starting to come in about a large explosion at an Iranian weapons depot near Aleppo after warplanes sighted in the area.

Probably coincidental.

TEEEJ

14th Apr 2018, 19:53

It seems that the Syrians used everything they had in terms of AD: C-125, C-200, 1st gen of BuK and 2-3 other types of AD systems, still from the times of Soviet Union. They even do not have C-300, while they were sold to Cyprus/Greece in 90's.

I wonder what exactly the intercept ratio was (per type of missile and per type of AD complex). First announcements differ greatly and seem not trustworthy. Western leaders are just saying that the goals have been achieved, which sounds vague. Conversely, the Russian MoD gives too detailed numbers, which I doubt a lot (i.e. 71 missile intercepted of 100+ and also split is provided per attacked facility/airbase):
https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12171300@egNews

It's in Russian but autotranslation should work...

The Russian Ministry of Defence played the same game during 2017 with the cruise missile strike on Shayrat airbase, Syria. The claim then was that 23 out of 59 were shot down. The question is why do the Russian Ministry of Defence play these silly games with ridiculous claims? Saying that I guess I really know the answer that propaganda must take priority.

See reply to the Shayrat claims later in the post.

The US analysis is that the Syrians were completely taken by surprise during last nights strike and only launched after the targets had been hit.

McKenzie: "Syria fired 40 surface to air missiles into the air after strike on ballistic (unguided trajectory) to no effect....after the 105 US and allied missiles had already landed."

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-14/highlights-pentagon-press-briefing-syria-airstrikes

You can see from satellite imagery that there was more than 23 hits at Shayrat. US General Joseph Votel briefed at the time that 57 out of the 59 cruise missiles struck their targets.

April 7, 2017

ISI FIRST TO ANALYZE SHAYRAT AIRFIELD MISSILE ATTACK

Based on very high resolution imagery captured less than 10 hours after the attack, ISI presents in depth battle damage assessment

ISI very high resolution satellite imagery was able to reveal the results of the Tomahawk cruise missiles attack on the Al-Shayrat Air Base. According to ISI experts, the total of 44 targets hit. Several targets may have hit twice.

An in-depth examination of the damage to the objectives shows that 13 double hardened aircraft shelters (HAS) got 23 hits. 5 workshops got hit. The workshops are not necessarily related to WMD, but to aircraft and their ability to do maintenance and fly.

Ten ammunition storages got hit. Seven fuel reservoirs of the AFB got hit at two sites with eight hits total. Two locations remain untouched. One SA6 Battery utterly destroyed along with its radars and control systems. In total, five SA6 Battery elements hit.

The results show that the target hits were accurate and that the Tomahawks have been used effectively against quality targets. Although 58 missiles hit the base, it seems that the overall damage to the base is limited because the warhead of the Tomahawk is not considered large and weighs about 450 kg.

Satellite imagery analysis at following link.

ISI first to analyze Shayrat airfield missile attack - ISI (http://archive.is/zuxre)

Airbubba

14th Apr 2018, 20:04

A couple of initial reports on the explosion(s) south of Aleppo, perhaps in Azan:

Explosion heard in government-controlled area south of Aleppo- monitor

by Reuters
Saturday, 14 April 2018 19:48 GMT

BEIRUT, April 14 (Reuters) - A huge blast was heard in a Syrian government-controlled area in a rural region south of Aleppo, the Britain-based war monitor The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Saturday.

The Observatory said the cause of the explosion was unknown, as well as its target.

Explosion heard in government-controlled area south of ... (http://news.trust.org/item/20180414194907-n91i8/)

Syrian media: Explosions at Iranian base near Aleppo

By JPOST.COM STAFF
04/14/2018

An Iranian military base in Syria was targeted by unidentified aircraft Saturday night, Syrian media is reporting.

The Iranian base, located in the Jabal Azzan region south of Aleppo, is the largest in the country. Eyewitnesses are reported to have observed explosions and flames at the site.

Other unconfirmed sources have identified the planes as Israeli fighter jets.

Syrian media: Explosions at Iranian base near Aleppo (http://www.jpost.com/printarticle.aspx?id=549824)

Lonewolf_50

14th Apr 2018, 20:20

You will notice that US commanders and President Trump now list France before UK, They know how to spell fcuk, and firetruck, so why does that surprise you? :hmm:
I noticed that the general giving the Pentagon briefing to the press corps failed to answer a valid question from one of the assembled members of the 4th Estate. The question was along the lines of, 'Were any of the allied aircraft painted by Russian radar?'
That was actually a stupid question by that journo, lars. One might as well ask "do birds crap on your car?" The general was right to ignore that idiot.
Typhoon was there to protect the French Mirage, in case of a hasty retreat. Ummm, I meant a ‘fighting withdrawal’. I was unaware that a Mirage had a reverse gear.

@Airbubba
Hezbollah media sources denied the reports and said that the explosions at the site resulted from explosives detonating within the warehouse. Anybody can have an ordnance handling problem. I am puzzled at why the Syrians blamed that on an air strike.
Let's examine a few cases:
1. Israelis in invisible aircraft attack the base
2. Some people on that base get frantic orders, after Friday's strikes, to move some stuff from X to Y and a few people screw up an ordnance handling procedure.
3. Rogue American (or British, or French, etc) pilots take off and attack the base with no orders from above.

I'll bet on 2, with two plus decades of time in service to inform my guess.
Maybe I put a side bet on 1 if the IDF thought they could sneak one in while the world was in a tizzy over the cruise missile strikes.

glad rag

14th Apr 2018, 20:56

Typhoon was there to protect the French Mirage, in case of a hasty retreat. Ummm, I meant a ‘fighting withdrawal’.

:E

Where's the cock emo when you need it

Basil

14th Apr 2018, 21:03

Nice to see the Tornado being so loved. Makes a change from many previous threads.
Well, TBH, a B757 could have done the job and carried a bigger load ;)

gums

14th Apr 2018, 21:25

Salute!

I love that question about friendly airraft being painted by radar. Love it.

Up to me I would have told the "reporter" nope, they didn't even know we were there until the bombs and missiles hit........ next question.
++++++

Over at Tyler's blog, lotta tweets and intell being updated at good intervals:

The War Zone - The Drive (http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Gotta tellya, that looking at one of the targets destruction, that Allies must have super warheads if the Syrians shot down most of the missiles. I saw the long video from Syrian "Ministry of Truth", and only saw one "hit" by a Syrian missile and plenty of launches.

If they used SA-6 systems, or a more modern version that used doppler for guidance on the missile, then they should have engaged and shot down many cruise missiles.

Our Israeli students in the only group IAF sent had a vet or two from the Yom Kippur episode. They were fighter/attack pilots checking out in the Viper, circa mid to late 1980. The SA-6 was a beast and they said you could not get low enuf to defeat it. Nevertheless, they found two ways to defeat the thing and I employed one in the mid 80's at Red Flag to escape and hit the tgt. The easiest way was to taxi a tank up to the sucker and blow it to kingdom come. The other eay was to "beam" it, then get closer and blow it up yourself.

Bear in mind that the SA-6 shot down our F-117 in the Balkans. It may be old, but the sucker works. The biggie is the integration of the air defense system to pass on the tgt to the missile battery and so forth. I flew against the best IAD the world has seen, and it was not in the mideast.. The Vee had plenty of practice, as we flew hundreds of missions up north. I shudder to think of what our losses would have been if they had the SA-6 for the low folks and the SA-4 for the initial folks heading in.

Oh well, I just pray we won't let this thing escalate.

Gums sends...

Jackonicko

14th Apr 2018, 21:27

https://www.facebook.com/aerospaceanalysis/

Israel raids Syrian air base

When the Syrian Arab Air Force T4 air base at Tiyas (near the city of Homs) came under attack before dawn on 9 April, Syria’s state TV immediately accused the United States of carrying out the attack. It was initially assumed that it had been mounted in retaliation for the widely reported chemical weapons attack two days earlier in Douma in the Eastern Ghouta region, the last rebel-held enclave in the vicinity of Damascus.

This was perhaps understandable. After a chemical weapons attack on the rebel-held town of Khan Sheikhoun in April 2017, the US fired 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles at a Syrian military air base at Shayrat, which had been used to launch that attack.

Even on the day of the attack against Tiyas, after US and French denials of responsibility, Syria and Russia were soon blaming Israel for the attack. Rather than being a US response to the alleged chemical weapons attack, the air raid was thus part of a wider Israeli effort to counter and contain the Iranian military build-up in Syria. It was not even the first IDF/AF attack against the air base at Tiyas, which has been a particular irritant to Israel.

Israeli sources have said that Tiyas air base incorporates an Iranian military/Revolutionary Guard/Quds facility, and have alleged that the base has been used by Iranian forces to transfer advanced weapons to its Lebanese ally, the Shia militant group Hezbollah.

Tiyas is also believed to have been the launch site for the Iranian drone that made an incursion into Israel in the early hours of 10 February, prompting an IDF/AF attack on what was described as the “command-and-control centre from which Iran had launched the drone, at a Syrian air base near Palmyra.” An Israeli F-16I Sufa was shot down by heavy Syrian anti-aircraft fire, crashing in Northern Israel en route back to its base. Both crew ejected safely.

This was said to be the first Israeli combat aircraft lost to hostile fire in decades.

The weapons used during this attack (and a succession of follow up attacks) were said to have been Israel Military Industries (IMI) Delilah loitering air-launched cruise missiles, launched by ‪Israel Defence Force/Air Force F-16I Sufa and F-15I Ra’am tactical fighters. These 412-lb weapons have a 66-lb warhead and a 160 nautical mile range, compared to the heavier but shorter-ranged Rafael Popeye.‬

Initial reports suggested that about 20 missiles landed in and around T4, hitting and damaging the ‘maintenance section’ and other areas, destroying a number of drones and causing casualties among Syrian air force and Iranian personnel. It was claimed that the Syrian defences had shot down eight missiles (out of 20 or 28 fired).

Subsequently, estimates as to the size of the raid were scaled back. The Russian Defence Ministry said that two Israeli F-15s had carried out a guided missile air strike on Tiyas air base, launching eight missiles from Lebanese air space in the early hours of Monday, 9 April. Moscow and Damascus claimed that Syrian defences had shot down five of the eight missiles fired, the remaining three hitting the western part of the base – which is understood to be the Iranian enclave.

14 people were killed in the attack, and the Iranian Tasnim news agency said that seven Iranian military personnel had been killed. The Fars news agency said that three of the dead had been members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, though this report was subsequently withdrawn without explanation.

Less than a week later, the US, UK and France mounted co-ordinated air strikes against Syrian targets in direct retaliation for the attack on Douma.

Cazalet33

14th Apr 2018, 23:07

As reported the airspace was jam packed with aircraft - including tankers, C4I, SEAD, EW and doubtless many CSAR/MV-22 etc.Sumb'dy had to provide cheese sandwiches for les Rafales et les Mirages, especially for the ones who appear to be reaching for the FBH. :}

jimjim1

15th Apr 2018, 00:23

US/UK/France

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1248x701/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/04/14/Interactivity/Images/barzah-before.jpg

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1248x701/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/04/14/Interactivity/Images/barzah-after.jpg

Links -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1248x701/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/04/14/Interactivity/Images/barzah-before.jpg

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1248x701/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/04/14/Interactivity/Images/barzah-after.jpg

Cazalet33

15th Apr 2018, 00:43

They mustabin guilty.

We've got the photos to prove it and evryfink!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_1248x701/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/04/14/Interactivity/Images/barzah-after.jpg

TEEEJ

15th Apr 2018, 00:47

Bear in mind that the SA-6 shot down our F-117 in the Balkans.

It was an SA-3.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zolt%C3%A1n_Dani

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/250th_Air_Defense_Missile_Brigade

Both manned aircraft losses (F-117 and F-16) over Yugoslavia during 1999 were by SA-3s.

Airbubba

15th Apr 2018, 01:18

It was an SA-3.

Both manned aircraft losses (F-117 and F-16) over Yugoslavia during 1999 were by SA-3s.

And the F-16 allegedly shot down by the SA-3 was flown by the current USAF Chief of Staff.

JPJP

15th Apr 2018, 03:10

I was unaware that a Mirage had a reverse gear.

:p Egzacly.

Where's the cock emo when you need it

Glad Rag,

I think you’ll find it in your sock draw, along with your sense of humor and an understanding of emojis :E. I was doing a little mild fishing for the lunatic fringe; Recce Guy, in this case. Regarding this inane comment -

Originally Posted by recceguy View Post
You will notice that US commanders and President Trump now list France before UK,

ORAC

15th Apr 2018, 03:17

Keep your friends close - and your enemy closer..... ;) ;)

Airbubba

15th Apr 2018, 07:10

From what I could see from various online tracking sites, significant numbers of RAF MRTT tankers, Typhoons and other aircraft like the R1 Sentinel were active in theater at the time of the attack. It is surprising to me that they weren't mentioned in the initial MoD news release.

More details from this Airforces Monthly article:

Of the eight Royal Air Force No 31 Squadron Tornado GR4s deployed to RAF Akrotiri, Cyprus under Operation Shader, four were involved in the operation. The jets are home based at RAF Marham in Norfolk and are scheduled for retirement next year.

The Tornados were among nine RAF aircraft understood to have participated in the strikes on the chemical weapon facilities on April 14. Each Tornado launched a pair of Storm Shadow cruise missiles at the Him Sinshar chemical weapons storage site, a former Syrian Arab Army missile base, around 15 miles (24km) west of Homs. The coalition believed the site was used for storage of chemical weapons or materials for their manufacture.

The Tornados, which come under the command of 903 Expeditionary Air Wing at RAF Akrotiri, were escorted by four No 6 Squadron Typhoon FGR4s that conducted force combat air patrol (FORCAP) missions. Each Typhoon was armed with two AIM-132 Advanced Short-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (ASRAAMs) and two AIM-120C-5 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs). The Typhoons secured the airspace over the eastern Mediterranean Sea before, during and after the Tornados launched their Storm Shadows. Voyager KC2 ZZ343 was available for aerial refuelling to keep the Typhoons airborne for almost three hours between 0330hrs and 0630hrs local time.

It is understood that prior to the raid one of four Sentinel R1 Airborne Stand-Off Radar (ASTOR) aircraft of the RAF’s No 5 (Army Cooperation) Squadron was deployed to Akrotiri, arriving on April 12. Sentinel ZJ690 reportedly flew an intelligence-gathering mission in support of the operation. The images taken by its ASARS-2A sensor would have assisted identification of the Him Sinshar chemical weapons storage site and other targets destroyed by cruise missiles from allied forces. It is rumoured that ZJ690 was also used for battle damage assessment (BDA) after the strikes.

https://airforcesmonthly.keypublishing.com/2018/04/14/strikes-on-syria-tornado-back-at-war/

On the spook side, assets such as two Rivet Joints and a Combat Sent were in theater along with the usual VP and VQ P-8's and EP-3's. An RQ-4B drone out of Sigonella was on station for hours yesterday monitoring any reaction to the attacks:

https://twitter.com/CivMilAir/status/985292288191541249

Heathrow Harry

15th Apr 2018, 07:30

Maybe it's me but I haven't heard a single word on the radio or TV congratulating the pilots as to their bravery........................

pr00ne

15th Apr 2018, 08:19

Heathrow Harry,

Than you obviously didn't listen to the Prime Ministers speech (On TV) following the raid when she did exactly that.

So I guess it's just you...

Timelord

15th Apr 2018, 08:33

Maybe it's me but I haven't heard a single word on the radio or TV congratulating the pilots as to their bravery........................

And WSOs.................

Onceapilot

15th Apr 2018, 09:41

So, here we go again, assuming the quote reflects an official press release?
Quote: "The Tornados , which come under the command of 903 Expeditionary Air Wing at RAF Akrotiri, were escorted by four No 6 Squadron Typhoon FGR4s that conducted force combat air patrol (FORCAP) missions. Each Typhoon was armed with two AIM-132 Advanced Short-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (ASRAAMs) and two AIM-120C-5 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs). The Typhoons secured the airspace over the eastern Mediterranean Sea before, during and after the Tornados launched their Storm Shadows".
Apparently then, the Typhoons "escorted" the Tornadoes, providing FORCAP. It also seems they "secured" the Eastern Med airspace. Very interesting. Does this mean that the 4 Typhoon were considered capable of "securing" the airspace in the face of the Russian assets in theatre or, just against the Syrian AD?

OAP

Heathrow Harry

15th Apr 2018, 09:44

Heathrow Harry,

Than you obviously didn't listen to the Prime Ministers speech (On TV) following the raid when she did exactly that.

So I guess it's just you...

She would say that wouldn't she................ She's not important and no one listens to her - even in Cabinet

It's the rest of the UK that I was thinking of..................... not a peep :(:(:(

Easy Street

15th Apr 2018, 09:54

clareprop

15th Apr 2018, 10:00

Maybe it's me but I haven't heard a single word on the radio or TV congratulating the pilots as to their bravery........................

The new medja 'phrase du jour' is 'fire and forget'. They obviously feel plaudits for that sort of action are unnecessary...

hoss183

15th Apr 2018, 10:36

So the accounting for missile shoot-down seems to me to be:
Syrians say: 17 shot down
Russians say: 71 shot down
US says: 0 shot down

I wonder what the real figure is?

BEagle

15th Apr 2018, 10:59

hoss183, back in Gulf War One (the honest one):

WASHINGTON — Navy and Marine Corps pilots launched more than 100 decoys in the first few days of last winter`s air war against Iraq, saturating enemy radar scopes with a confusing mass of blips and drawing anti-aircraft fire.

The glider decoys were launched by strike aircraft as they approached heavily defended areas deep inside Iraq. The deception allowed American jets to strike targets unmolested, according to military and industry officials.

:hmm:

mmitch

15th Apr 2018, 11:21

So did the Russians switch their S400s to 'standby' or was it done for them?
mmitch.

Heathrow Harry

15th Apr 2018, 11:33

Why fire at all? Maybe switch a couple of tracking radars on to see if they work but otherwise why give up the intelligence - and to save Assad a bit of local redevelopment.... would be silly

henra

15th Apr 2018, 12:00

So did the Russians switch their S400s to 'standby' or was it done for them?
mmitch.

With so many 'data sniffers' around they probably kept them switched off. Not much to gain but a lot to lose. (Gaining wavelength and scan patterns of the S-400 would be invaluable and far exceed the value of the damage done to some Syrian Brick Houses- I would dare to say that knowing that an S-400 is stationed there is probably the extra price and a good additional motivation for executing and announcing the strike)

hoss183

15th Apr 2018, 12:15

So did the Russians switch their S400s to 'standby' or was it done for them?
mmitch.

I suspect the behind the scenes diplomacy to avoid WW3 was: 'We wont target any Russian bases or assets, leave us alone and we will do likewise'

Lima Juliet

15th Apr 2018, 12:29

Yup, General Goldfein’s ‘triple nickle’ F-16CG sits in Belgrade aircraft museum afterbeing schwacked by a SA-3. Thankfully he was picked up almost immediately by CSAR under significant gunfire. The good General allegedly buys the pilots and PJs a good bottle of malt each year :ok:

https://thevelvetrocket.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/f16-shot-down-serbia.jpg

chopper2004

15th Apr 2018, 13:06

And the F-16 allegedly shot down by the SA-3 was flown by the current USAF Chief of Staff.

Nope Captain Scott O'Grady left active duty into the AFRC not too long after his service at Aviano and continued to fly in the AFRC.

Subsequently I read he went into politics.

cheers

Onceapilot

15th Apr 2018, 13:22

OAP,

I think you’re being a bit naive by expecting questions such as yours (‘can Typhoons operate in the face of S400?’) to be answered in the public domain. Generically, I would expect a CAP to have been placed to deter Syrian or Russian ac from making westbound excursions that might have threatened the Tornados at the easternmost point of their routes (which wouldn’t have been very far east in any case so the CAP could easily have been filling a ‘detached escort’ function overhead Akrotiri). This would also have deterred any potential threat to Akrotiri itself. While the Tornados would have been able to fly under the S400 radar horizon, that wouldn’t have been an option for an effective CAP. As such I don’t think we can infer anything about the Typhoon’s capability or tactics from the publicly-available information - exactly as it should be!

In reality, it is unlikely that anyone commenting on this site knows all the tactics and equipment that were used. :ok: However, something that I assume can be deduced is that, the Russian forces really were held weapons tight and, the coalition Politicians and players knew that before launching the mission. Overall, I am very pleased to see that this was a successful mission and, some level of cooperation was achieved. :D

OAP

The B Word

15th Apr 2018, 13:23

Nope Captain Scott O'Grady left active duty into the AFRC not too long after his service at Aviano and continued to fly in the AFRC.

Subsequently I read he went into politics.

cheers

Nope, that was not in 1999. Scott O’Grady was shot down by a SA-6 near Banja Luka in 1995 - the same SA-6 that had been looking at me a few days before! :eek:

Lima Juliet

15th Apr 2018, 13:26

Here is a cracking article in the Daily Mirror about Corbyn’s apparent ill-judged ramblings:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/everything-jeremy-corbyn-just-said-12357497.amp?__twitter_impression=true

You might say this doesn't matter because Corbyn's not in charge of the country, but he wants to be and in order to do so he must demonstrate he understands, and can solve, complex problems. This statement is something you'd expect from a right-on 15-year-old who thinks they know everything already and whose response to difficulty is to whine that it's not fair.

TEEEJ

15th Apr 2018, 14:58

More details from this Airforces Monthly article:

https://airforcesmonthly.keypublishing.com/2018/04/14/strikes-on-syria-tornado-back-at-war/

Also note the Tornado GR4s were carrying 2 x AIM-132 ASRAAM.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEVrEjvyQQc

gums

15th Apr 2018, 15:02

Salute!

Thanks, TEEEEJ, I had confused Scott's shootdown with Goldein's and flata$$$ blew my memory of the 117. And TNX, B Word for clearing up the dates.

Gen Goldfein was indeed shot down in 1999 and like the Nighthawk, by a modified SA-3 system and really good operators.

I never saw a SA-3 at Red Flag, but they still had SA-6 threat sites, as I described. During Linebacker there was concern that the Vee were fielding the SA-3 and we saw strong india band strobes on our RHAW gear, but no missiles. The theory that developed postulated they were trying to use the india band for defeating our jammers and chaff corridors. Saw some SA-2 missiles, but we defeated them.

Gums sends...

hoss183

15th Apr 2018, 17:27

Yup, General Goldfein’s ‘triple nickle’ F-16CG sits in Belgrade aircraft museum afterbeing schwacked by a SA-3.

Belgrade aerospace museum is well worth a visit, some real gems there. Its right next to the airport, down a back street.

just another jocky

15th Apr 2018, 17:54

Here is a cracking article in the Daily Mirror...

Not something you hear very often. :}

just another jocky

15th Apr 2018, 17:55

Also note the Tornado GR4s were carrying 2 x AIM-132 ASRAAM.

A true Multi-Role Combat Aircraft! :ok:

Onceapilot

16th Apr 2018, 12:03

A_Van

16th Apr 2018, 15:17

There seems to be an interesting difference between Russia/Syria and coalition partners claims on missile losses. Russia seem to be claiming 70 odd losses and coalition claim none. :confused: It seems that, surprisingly, the Donald might be closer to the true news, rather than the fake news. I wonder if we will see some more info today?

OAP

This is the question of my real interest, too. "None" is definitely a propaganda for house wives, 70 (of 103-105) looks a bit unrealistic for me, either. I would expect 30-40% of intercepted cruise missiles.
However, they (the Syrians) knew the time, the direction (except maybe for the one where B-1B were shooting from), there were no anti-SAM missiles used prior to the attack.

Now the burden of proof is on the Syrian side. They have access to debris, holes on the ground and in buildings, etc. However, when a Tomahawk is intercepted by BuK or Pantzyr rocket, the result might be close to dust...

I am not sure we will see 100% convincing evidences and all sides will remain with their opinions.

Herod

16th Apr 2018, 15:41

A_Van

16th Apr 2018, 16:53

Astonishing pair of pictures on the front of today's "Times" Before and after of the Barzeh research centre. The site is totally destroyed, but it looks as if the perimeter fence might still be standing. The trees lining the road are still there. Now that's precision.

This is strange indeed and seems not to fit the announced numbers. More than 15 Tomahawk per building (equivalent of 6-7 tons of serious, not improvised, explosives) would eliminate everything around, as there were not underground explosions - buildings "are ordinary civilian boxes". This only means that not all 100+ missiles hit them, but much less.

For those really interested, here are recent numbers from Russian MOD per SAM complex used:

Pantzyr: 25 missiles fired, 23 targets hit
Buk: 29 and 24
Osa: 11 and 5
C-125: 13 and 5
Strela-10: 5 and 3
Kvadrat: 21 and 11
C-200: 8 and 0

C-200 (SA-5 in NATO classification) is the main loser and this is not a surprise. It was designed (in early 60's) to deal mainly wih airplanes, and Syrian crews were probably not enough trained to work on CM.

Source in Russian:
??????????: ????????? ?????? ????? ??? ?? ????? ???? ??????? ??????? - ????? ? ??? - ???? (http://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/5131781)

Herod

16th Apr 2018, 16:58

This is strange indeed and seem not to fit the announced numbers.

A_Van.

I presume you know the English saying "A picture is worth a thousand words"?

A_Van

16th Apr 2018, 17:04

A_Van.

I presume you know the English saying "A picture is worth a thousand words"?

I do. Russian equivalent could be straightforwardly translated as "single view is better that 10 hearings".

As for SAM performance, these are not my numbers and I am not 100% sure they are correct (but anyway seem to be more close to reality than "0" in Trump's and May's twits).

I am just sharing what is announced here. Not by journalists, but by people who should bear at least some responsibility for what they are saying.
Not sure British media would copy this summary from the Russian MoD official. And for those interested hearing all views this might be of interest.

KenV

16th Apr 2018, 18:29

This is strange indeed and seems not to fit the announced numbers. More than 15 Tomahawk per building (equivalent of 6-7 tons of serious, not improvised, explosives) would eliminate everything around....Why? If the missiles hit in the same place only a few seconds apart, each succeeding hit would just stir up the rubble, not create more rubble, and certainly not create more surrounding damage.

TEEEJ

16th Apr 2018, 18:32

This is strange indeed and seems not to fit the announced numbers. More than 15 Tomahawk per building (equivalent of 6-7 tons of serious, not improvised, explosives) would eliminate everything around, as there were not underground explosions - buildings "are ordinary civilian boxes". This only means that not all 100+ missiles hit them, but much less.

The question is what variant of Tomahawk was used to strike Barzeh Scientific Research Centre? Did they use the Tactical Tomahawk (TACTOM) variant with the penetrating warhead along with the penetrating warhead mode on the JASSM-ER? Just a guess but was the penetrating warheads used to drop/collapse the buildings rather than the standard Tomahawk warhead in order to prevent blast damage?

Lonewolf_50

16th Apr 2018, 20:23

there were no anti-SAM missiles used prior to the attack. Good point. The IADS was able to use as much radar (area and local) as needed without being shut down. (But did they know that ahead of time? I have no idea). If things like HARM had been used someone would probably have made mention of that due to the odds of those hitting somewhere that were not CW facilities.
Question: what do you know about jamming or other electrical countermeasures?
Now the burden of proof is on the Syrian side. Indeed.

There are more ways than "waiting for the target to admit you hit him" to figure out if the missiles their targets or not.

Heathrow Harry

16th Apr 2018, 20:38

Onceapilot

16th Apr 2018, 21:04

Hmmm. It seems that the targeting and hit/loss figures continue to be a straight argument, with no simple way for a member of joe-public to know. There certainly could be misinformation due to collateral damage from Syrian SAM boosters and shrapnel. Beyond that, it certainly looks as though there was little or no use of ARM.

OAP

Lonewolf_50

17th Apr 2018, 03:28

Hmmm. It seems that the targeting and hit/loss figures continue to be a straight argument, with no simple way for a member of joe-public to know. Do they have a need to know? Explain why, or why not, if you please.

Onceapilot

17th Apr 2018, 05:30

Do they have a need to know? Explain why, or why not, if you please.

Need to know? No, not the military sensitive info. However, public support through information or misinformation is a powerful political tool. ;)

OAP

A_Van

17th Apr 2018, 05:56

.....
Question: what do you know about jamming or other electrical countermeasures?
.......

I do not think that the Syrians have any considerable EW means.
What was used on the US side, you definitely know better. I can only say that have not heard/read of intensive usage of the US EW planes at the time of attack, and this made the task for the Syrain AD much easier.

I heard on radio some Russian correspondent interviewing a Syrain officer who was among those operating a Buk system during the attack. That guy said they saw decoys on the screen.

There was another information that I found more dangerous: a cat&mouse game played by UK and Russian subs. The latter prevented the former to launch CMs. Now this story has also been published in the English media:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-submarine-in-underwater-duel-with-kremlins-black-hole-hunter-killer-dhxhlpwc9

No idea if this is a fake news or not, but sounds dangerous.

Heathrow Harry

17th Apr 2018, 06:40

Cat & mouse games happen all the time -

In this case the Russians had a pretty good idea that the British/US/French subs might launch from the E Med - so you can concentrate your forces. If you have some idea that (say ) the only RN sub in the Med is around Gibraltar you can monitor the approach points as well

You don't have to detect the Astute - all you have to do is to generate enough local activity to make it uncomfortable for them to launch

Ian Corrigible

17th Apr 2018, 11:58

Syrian AD's Pk now exceeds 1:

Associated Press, April 16 (7:05 p.m.): (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-04-16/the-latest-eu-aims-to-boost-un-role-in-syria-after-strikes) Syrian state-run television says Syria's air defenses have confronted a new "aggression," shooting down missiles over the area of Homs in the country's center... State television showed pictures of a missile it said was shot in the air above the air base.

Reuters, April 17 (4:49 a.m.) (https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-04-17/false-alarm-set-off-syrian-air-defenses-pro-assad-commander): A false alarm led to Syrian air defense missiles being fired overnight and no new attack on Syria took place, Syrian state media and a military commander said on Tuesday... Syrian state news agency SANA cited a military source as saying a number of air defense missiles had been fired but no foreign attack had taken place.

Wonder how many of those claimed 71 shotdowns from April 14th were MALDs?

dead_pan

17th Apr 2018, 12:08

Syria now claiming its shot down missiles that exist only in their imagination. Makes a bit a mockery of their claims at the weekend

Buster Hyman

17th Apr 2018, 12:40

http://s2.quickmeme.com/img/04/0431cfa4d7822bd2ce06b691bd1c3afe95b7266b72ab1a91c4bd1ecd06c9 c793.jpg

Herod

17th Apr 2018, 13:18

Comical Ali (remember him?) is alive and well and living in Damascus.

PAXfips

17th Apr 2018, 13:52

Comical Ali (remember him?) is alive and well and living in Damascus.
But his name is Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf ;)

Cazalet33

18th Apr 2018, 00:36

Sgt Coombes was in control, y'know.

ORAC

18th Apr 2018, 10:36

Israel warns Iran: we are ready to strike you in Syria (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/israel-warns-iran-we-are-ready-to-strike-you-in-syria-0xk5l3p7v)

Israel released satellite images yesterday of Iranian bases in Syria, a clear warning to its old enemy as both are drawn deeper into the Syrian conflict.

The Israeli military said it believed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was planning to attack Israel in the coming days; retaliation for its strike on an Iranian drone base in Syria in the early hours of April 9 in which seven Iranians died. Intelligence officers say that the attack could come tomorrow, to coincide with Israel’s 70th anniversary celebrations. The release of the satellite images was intended to signal to Iran that Israel knows the location of its elite expeditionary Quds Force bases in Syria and stands ready to strike.....

Israeli intelligence believes that Iran is seeking to build its own independent infrastructure in Syria for asymmetric warfare against Israel, including drones and high-tech tools that are harder to strike than conventional military sites. A senior Israeli intelligence official said: “Despite all the diplomacy and warnings, the Iranians are still going to try to build their permanent bases in Syria and so far, we don’t see Putin trying very hard to stop them. Russia needs the Iranians to supply boots on the ground. As for the US, we have yet to see a clear policy from the Trump administration on the Syrian issue.”

Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli Military Intelligence, said: “This latest development didn’t suddenly happen. It’s a result of the Iranians’ resolve to entrench in Syria and Israel is determined to prevent that from happening. That’s why these two normally risk-averse powers are now close to confrontation. It’s not inevitable because Putin has an interest in stabilising Syria and he can try to defuse the situation.”

Israel has stated repeatedly, and publicly, that it will not allow Iran to establish bases in Syria that could threaten it. Intelligence officers believe that in addition to the drone operations, the IRGC is working with Syria to enhance its defences against Israeli aircraft and provide protection for Iran’s new bases.

Israel has not publicly admitted to the strike on April 9, which came a day after the suspected chemical attack on Syrian rebels in Douma. However, the White House said that Israel had told it of the attack — the latest of about 100 strikes in Syria credited to Israel — before it happened. An Israeli military official told The New York Times that the strike marked “the first time we attacked live Iranian targets, both facilities and people”. The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel’s target was an advanced air defence system the Iranians were trying to install.

Israel’s previous attacks in Syria were intended mostly to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah. An IRGC general was killed in a 2015 strike on a Hezbollah convoy on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights but it is not believed that Israel was aware of his presence.

Israel and Iran have been enemies for nearly four decades, since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, but most confrontations have been fought by Iran’s proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah. That changed in February when Israel shot down an Iranian drone said to be carrying explosives from Syria after it entered Israeli airspace. Brigidier-General Ronen Manelis, the Israeli military spokesman, said last week that the drone’s flight path and “intelligence and operational analysis” indicated that it was carrying explosives and that its mission was “an act of sabotage in Israeli territory”.

Seven IRGC officers died in the subsequent Israeli strike on the drone’s launch site in Palmyra, including a colonel who was in command of drone operations. In a rare move, Iran publicly acknowledged the deaths of its “martyrs” in Syria.

The satellite footage released by Israel yesterday shows two IRGC compounds at Syrian airbases in Deir Ezzor and Sayqal from where it claims Iranian drones are being operated. Footage was also released of Mehrabad airport in Tehran, where the IRGC is alleged to maintain a cargo facility at which aircraft are loaded with weapons flown to the Assad regime under the guise of humanitarian supplies.

In releasing the images, Israel is signalling the extent of its intelligence about Iranian involvement in Syria and what the Islamic Republic stands to lose if matters escalate. It also published a map of five airbases that it claims are being used by the IRGC throughout Syria and the details of senior commanders, including a photograph of Brigadier-General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC air force......

Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy leader, told a television interviewer that Israel was “trying to show that it dictates the rules of the conflict, and we cannot agree with this”. He added: “We expect Iranian retaliation to the killing of Iranians by Israel at the airbase.”

Brat

18th Apr 2018, 12:30

Since Iran is very open about its intentions to destroy Israel it would seem that any Iranian forward position in Syria is a legitimate target for Israel to defend itself against...and pointless to point out the best form that takes.

Heathrow Harry

18th Apr 2018, 12:37

both sides seem to be working themselves up for a fight

Israel has the technology, Iran has the numbers........

Penny Washers

18th Apr 2018, 12:47

KenV

18th Apr 2018, 14:18

One of the best ways for Israel to 'defend' itself is for it to feed bogus 'intelligence' to the US, who will then feel obliged to take action on it. This could have happened here with the gas attack at Douma.

Hmmmmmm
First there was no gas attack at all. It was fake news
Then the gas attack that did not happen was actually the work of the UK. Yah shur.
Now, the gas attack that did not happen was actually false intel created by Israel. Yah shur, the US has zero intel sources of its own. So little in fact, that the US has no idea where Syria's chemical production and storage plants are located and no way to target them. Oh, wait.

What's next? The gas attack was really the work of space aliens who the Syrians, Iranians, and Russians are valiantly combatting?

Lonewolf_50

18th Apr 2018, 14:45

Israeli intelligence believes that Iran is seeking to build its own independent infrastructure in Syria for asymmetric warfare against Israel, including drones and high-tech tools that are harder to strike than conventional military sites. Hmm, borrowing best practices? I think the Iranian military guys have been watching the US military's use of drones, which our Air Force (among others) can't stop talking about.

A_Van

18th Apr 2018, 14:49

Israel behaves adequately. It is a victim of idiots in politics in Europe, Russia and US. If these three would find a compromise on Syria, Iran would not grow that much as a threat to Israel and not move to its borders.
IMHO, it is of the first importance to keep Syria as a secular state. Only in this case it is possible to talk and agree with Israel and West/Russia and keep peace in the region.
Assad is a bad "manager", he should have been thrown away long ago and Russia should not have supported him. But what was proposed as an alternative? Several mobs of jihaddists and armed thugs called "democratic forces" or "free army", etc. ? Come on, we see this situation (chaos) in Lybia.
Based on these contradictions, Iran increases its influence. Assad is now about 2/3 puppet of Iran and only 1/3 of Russia.

Lonewolf_50

18th Apr 2018, 15:21

I seem to recall that in about 2002, a few vocal opponents of going into Iraq argued that the actual strategic problem for the US in the Persian Gulf area was Iran, and that taking down Iraq would only be doing Iran a favor. Focusing on higher priority problems in the region was the better idea. (https://www.npr.org/programs/morning/zinni.html)

Hmm. It looks like General Zinni was right (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/10/AR2006071000568.html). And now that I think of it, I think he's right again (along with James Stavridis) (http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/04/11/gen-zinni-adm-stavridis-what-pompeo-must-do-first-if-confirmed-as-secretary-state.html)

TEEEJ

18th Apr 2018, 21:53

You can see the Russian propaganda machine in full flow with the Ministry of Defence briefing. I've quoted the full statement for those not wanting to click on a Russian Ministry of Defence link.

Note in order to claim missiles shot down they have completely fabricated attack on airfields. I've highlighted them in bold. Also note that they claim that B-1Bs dropped GBU-38 (JDAM variant) and that F-15 and F-16 launched air to surface missiles.

The US alongside its allies conducted a missile strike by its air and naval carriers targeting military and civil facilities of the Syrian Arab Republic on April 14 in the period from 3.42 am till 5.10 am (MSK).

The Russian air defence systems at the Khmeimim and Tartus air base timely located and controlled all naval and air launches made by the USA and the UK.

Announced French aircraft have not been registered by the Russian air defence systems.

It is reported that the B-1B, F-15 and F-16 aircraft of the USAF as well as the Tornado airplanes of the UK RAF over the Mediterranean Sea, and the USS Laboon and USS Monterey located in the Red Sea were used during the operation.

The B-1B strategic bombers approached the facilities over the Syrian territory near al-Tanf illegally seized by the USA.

A number Syrian military airfields, industrial and research facilities suffered the missile-bomb strike.

As preliminary reported, there are no civilian casualties and losses among the Syrian Arab Army (SAA). Information will be further specified and made public.

As evident by the available data, 103 cruise missiles have been launched, including Tomahawk naval-based missiles as well as GBU-38 guided air bombs fired from the B-1B; the F-15 and F-16 aircraft launched air-to-surface missiles.

The Tornado airplanes of the UK RAF launched eight Scalp EG missiles.

The Syrian air defence systems, which are primarily the USSR-made AD systems, have successfully countered the air and naval strikes.

In total, 71 cruise missiles have been intercepted. The S-125, S-200, Buk, Kvadrat, and Osa Syrian AD systems were involved in repelling the attack.

It proves high efficiency of the Syrian armament and professional skills of the Syrian servicemen trained by the Russian specialists.

Over the last eighteen months, Russia has completely recovered the Syrian air defence systems, and continues its development.

It is to be stressed that several years ago given the strong request by our western partners, Russia opted out of supplying the S-300 AD systems to Syria. Taking into account the recent incident, Russia believes it possible to reconsider this issue not only regarding Syria but other countries as well.

The strike targeted Syrian air bases as well. Russia has registered the following data.

Four missiles targeted the Damascus International Airport; 12 missiles – the Al-Dumayr airdrome, all the missiles have been shot down.

18 missiles targeted the Blai airdrome, all the missiles shot down.

12 missiles targeted the Shayrat air base, all the missiles shot down. Air bases were not affected by the strike.

Five out of nine missiles were shot down targeting the unoccupied Mazzeh airdrome.

Thirteen out of sixteen missiles were shot down targeting the Homs airdrome. There are no heavy destructions.

In total 30 missiles targeted facilities near Barzah and Jaramana. Seven of them have been shot down. These facilities allegedly relating to the so-called “Damascus military chemical programme” were partially destructed. However, the objects have not been used for a long time, so there were no people and equipment there.

The Russian air defence systems have been alerted. Fighter jets are on combat air patrol now.

There were no cruise missiles entering the Russian AD responsibility area. The Russian air defence systems were not applied.

Russia considers the strike to be a response to the success of the Syrian Armed Forces in fighting international terrorism and liberating its territory, rather than a response to the alleged chemical attack.

Besides, the attack took place on a day when the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) special mission was to start working on investigating incident in the city of Douma where chemical attack allegedly occurred.

It is to be stressed that there are no facilities on producing chemical weapons in Syria, and this has been documented by the OPCW.

The American aggression proves that the USA is not interested in objectivity of the ongoing investigation, seeks to wreck peaceful settlement in Syria and destabilize environment in the Middle East, and all these have nothing to do with declared objectives of countering international terrorism.

Currently the situation in Damascus and other settlements is assessed to be stable.The environment is being monitored.

The following link is Russian Ministry of Defence.

http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12171300@egNews

Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the Russian General Staff Colonel General Sergei Rudskoy holds briefing for mass media

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWAdNJ6s4ts

Just This Once...

19th Apr 2018, 06:43

They probably didn’t have much choice in making-up non-existent attacks that were miraculously saved by SAMs - the smoking holes at the declared targets were just too difficult to hide.

I do wonder if anyone in Russia believes this stuff. The coalition announces the location of the strikes immediately after the attack which, days later and with independent images, turn out to be a complete success. Meanwhile the coalition (allegedly and simultaneously) conducts other attacks that they do not include in the announcement and, coincidentally, these mystery targets are completely shielded by their air defence systems. Yeah, right.

The Russian propaganda machine made a strange choice in claiming tactical aircraft dropped free-fall weapons though. The absence of successful SAM engagements against these mystery aircraft is also going to be difficult to explain.

A_Van

19th Apr 2018, 08:05

....

The Russian propaganda machine made a strange choice in claiming tactical aircraft dropped free-fall weapons though.

Sounds like misinterpretation.
Can you please elaborate more on what you wrote?

It was written in the Russian "propaganda" (quoted by TEEEJ) that
"F-15 and F-16 aircraft launched air-to-surface missiles. The Tornado airplanes of the UK RAF launched eight Scalp EG missiles."

Isn't it true that both F-15, F-16 and Tornado can carry A2S missiles?

Or, do you call SCALP and, e.g. AGM-158B and likes "free fall weapons"?

....
The absence of successful SAM engagements against these mystery aircraft is also going to be difficult to explain.

It was immediately mentioned after the strike that "coalition" aircraft did not approach the Syrian AD complexes close enough so these AD means were shooting at missiles only. The Syrians were talking about ranges of 10-25 km (mentioning Buk).

Neither the above aircraft were threatening (long-range) Russian SAMs in north-western part of Syria (as it was agreed prior to the strike), so there was no need to use them at all.

ORAC

19th Apr 2018, 08:30

A_Van

19th Apr 2018, 09:50

Van,

Perhaps you missed the part of the briefing that said:
“The B-1B strategic bombers approached the facilities over the Syrian territory near al-Tanf”...

“....as well as GBU-38 guided air bombs fired from the B-1B”.
If you are unfamiliar, the GBU-38 is a free-fall LGB.....
GBU-38 JDAM (http://www.deagel.com/Defensive-Weapons/GBU-38-JDAM_a001074003.aspx)

In fact the point of my misunderstanding was that Just This Once... wrote that "....claiming tactical aircraft dropped free-fall weapons ....."

Since the time when B-1 (and then B-1B) was introduced, I was thinking that it was a strategic bomber.

Some sources confirm this, e.g. the following one:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockwell_B-1_Lancer
It says that "It is one of three strategic bombers in the U.S. Air Force fleet as of 2018, the other two being the B-2"Stealth Bomber", and the B-52".

BTW, it was written today in a Russian media that two US missiles were found more or less as whole pieces on the Syrian territory after the attack. They were transported to Russia and are now being examined by experts.

ORAC

19th Apr 2018, 10:09

The B-1 was designed as a strategic bomber, But the B-1B has been pretty much just a tactical bomber since GWI and the disbandment of SAC; used in the same way the Russian Air Force uses the T-22M.

TEEEJ

19th Apr 2018, 11:21

Think about it, A Van?

There was no warning given to the Russians about the strikes on the targets. The Russians are claiming that there was repelled strikes on a number of airfields. Do you really think that the US would risk having Russian forces based at those airfields being caught up and suffering casualties? The whole aim of the strikes on carefully selected targets was to prevent such casualties and allow for no prior warning.

One of those airfields with a claimed successfully repelled attack was Shayrat. The same airfield that was targetted by the US during April 2017. The Russians were warned before hand of the 2017 strike and I believe they were given a 90 minute warning. In addition to the warning the Hardened Aircraft Shelters and the surrounding areas where the Russian helicopter fleet was located was untargeted.

The same goes for those other claimed airfields. Without a warning think of the risk of Russian forces being caught up? Think of the consequences of such a situation? It would have played straight into Putin's hands and the risk of escalation and retaliaton.

The Russians did the same with the 2017 TLAM strike on Shayrat. For propaganda purposes they briefed that only 23 TLAMs out of 59 had hit Shayrat.

Can you not see that the Russian Ministry of Defence have to create these fabrications and that if you believe them you are being played? They did the same during Soviet times for the 1986 raid on Libya. It is just embarrassing for these Russian top brass to be made to go out and spin the spin.

Even in the face of the post strike satellite imagery and analysis of the 2017 Shayrat strike the Russians still stuck with the 23 hits only.

Satellite imagery and analysis at following link.

ISI first to analyze Shayrat airfield missile attack - ISI (http://archive.is/zuxre)

A Van wrote

BTW, it was written today in a Russian media that two US missiles were found more or less as whole pieces on the Syrian territory after the attack. They were transported to Russia and are now being examined by experts.

Yes it is possible that some missiles malfunctioned. Just the same as some of the Russian cruise missiles that crashed relatively intact in both Iran and Syria. What you have to factor in with these claims is that it is just a fabricated story. Think of the propaganda value of a Ministry of Defence enhanced briefing showing these missiles with all the details?

What I think has happened here is that some of the Russian media have got hold of the following image and the spin continues.

These are actually two Soviet era R-40 AA-6 Acrid. No fins on them and still with the protective caps. Likely abandoned on one of the Syrian airfields.

https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/985420556710236160

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-nhy3Lcfn-04/WtUZsFNY7BI/AAAAAAACYws/wWhDs0Z3WC8aBZLrTdGdsfScOEG8KCAvACJoC/w506-h750/445732118_99430.jpg

Just This Once...

19th Apr 2018, 11:24

The START treaty removed the strategic role from the Bone and a bunch of Russian officers get to inspect the aircraft every year to confirm it.

It’s tactical role just gets bigger - now with added maritime capabilities too.

Pontius Navigator

19th Apr 2018, 11:40

What goes up must come down. It the SADS launched missiles wholesale it is quite possible they bombed their own airfields.

Lonewolf_50

19th Apr 2018, 13:19

Since the time when B-1 (and then B-1B) was introduced, I was thinking that it was a strategic bomber. It can perform either role (tactical bomber or strategic bomber) though noting JTO's point on START is worthwhile. You may find it interesting that for a while, B-1's were tasked with close air support in a couple of our operations. They did OK, but the ground guys always expressed a preference for A-10's. (Go figure).

Just This Once...

19th Apr 2018, 15:52

The photo of Russian made AA-6 missiles is typical. Surely there are many folk in Russia who would instantly recognise them and those that don’t must find it odd for 2 supposedly shotdown missiles landed next to each other with one of them magically refitting its ‘remove before flight’ cover?

Heathrow Harry

19th Apr 2018, 17:27

Just This Once...

19th Apr 2018, 20:40

It has been a sunny day and yet my front door handle was a bit wet....

KenV

20th Apr 2018, 14:15

BTW, it was written today in a Russian media that two US missiles were found more or less as whole pieces on the Syrian territory after the attack. They were transported to Russia and are now being examined by experts.There are some mighty gullible people who post here. Just sayin'.

ORAC

20th Apr 2018, 14:16

Perhaps they sent two in post #2345?

Pontius Navigator

21st Apr 2018, 07:57

Is it my imagination but has the missile strike more or less dropped off the news circuits?

In other words Russian maskirovka either succeeded or is wasted as the media soon forgets it anyway.

ORAC

21st Apr 2018, 18:30

Less than, shall we say, complementary by the Russians of their allies......

Assad is in a weaker position than most think (https://capx.co/assad-is-in-a-weaker-position-than-most-think/)

“.......“The Syrians can’t fight,” said one commander. “I’ve seen it many times. At the drop of a hat they’ll abandon their positions and flee. ‘Go, go, Russia, go!’ they’ll yell. Where are you going, god damn it, let’s defend the position! But no. When there’s an assault, for instance, we’ll take the high ground, hand it over to the Syrians in the evening, come morning, no Syrians.”

The Russians regard the poor fighting capacity of the regime forces as connected to what they see as moral failings. “It’s a grotesque country,” said the commander to RFE/RL. “Faggotry flourishes there. They’ve all got it to a man.” The depletion of fighting-age men in regime areas has been a massive problem, and apparently drives the unwillingness to fight: “I ask one of the translators: ‘Why do your boys not want to fight?’ ‘Oh’, he says, ‘many of our boys have been killed in the war. We need some to stay alive to **** some girls so there will be children’. ‘Look, let us **** your girls’, I say, ‘and you guys go fight. It’s your country’. ‘No’, he says, ‘we need to preserve our blood’. What blood? Your gay blood?”

In another interview by the Estonian public broadcaster’s Russian-language channel, a Wagner fighter named Oleg also discusses how it was impossible to get the Syrians to fight – even when the Russians would shoot at their feet. The Russians had to undertake all assaults under Syrian friendly fire and lost staggering amounts of men thanks to regime incompetence. “God forbid one should have such allies,” he said, “because they always **** up every task. Always.” An Izvestia interview in October with a Russian special forces officer in October paints a similar picture. “We have to instruct them to let us return from the battlefield and not open fire and kill us … Sometimes you’ll say ‘run!’ while they’re getting shot at and they can’t move—their legs have turned to rubber. Sometimes they start crying.”........

“The skill level of the Syrian army is less than nonexistent, one could say,” says another fighter. “The Russians give tanks to the Syrians, the Syrians give the tanks to ISIS, the Russians come and take the tanks back from ISIS … give them back to the Syrians again … and the cycle restarts.” Similar reports have come from Assad’s Iranian allies. Journalist Sulome Anderson quotes some Iranian-backed Hezbollah sources calling Assad’s forces “garbage people” and “sons of bitches.” One Hezbollah captain told her: “If you have 600 Syrians before a battle, when the battle starts you’ll have six.”.........

etudiant

21st Apr 2018, 21:53

This should not be a surprise, Arab armies have long had difficulty getting the troops sufficiently motivated. Even T E Lawrence made a point of highlighting this as a major reason for his tactics.
The situation should be even less impressive today. If the choice is to fight for Assad or for ISIS, most would agree that 'neither' is a rational response.

Jackonicko

23rd Apr 2018, 11:06

A reasonable summary and lots of photos at:

https://www.f***book.com/pg/aerospaceanalysis/posts/?ref=page_internal

obviously the *** will need replacing…...

ORAC

30th Apr 2018, 19:18

The Times: Middle East tensions rise after Israeli strike on missile base in Syria

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/methode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F95d008e4-4c5d-11e8-820c-9146b8a57671.jpg?crop=2835%2C1595%2C0%2C148&resize=2400 (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/methode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F95d008e4-4c5d-11e8-820c-9146b8a57671.jpg?crop=2835%2C1595%2C0%2C148&resize=2400)

Suspected Israeli cruise missile strikes on military bases and an arms depot in Syria killed scores of regime and possibly Iranian soldiers, according to monitors and state media.

The air-to-surface missiles, said to have been fired from Israeli jets, sent flames into the night sky of northern Syria above the bases near Hama and Aleppo. The blasts were so powerful they triggered earthquake sensors in neighbouring Lebanon and Turkey. Syrian rebel sources said the main target, the Brigade 47 base a few miles from Hama’s city centre, housed the northern command and control centre of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard based in Syria.

The guard has hundreds of officers and advisers helping defend the Assad regime, and backs a further estimated 20,000 Shia militia operatives it has sent in from across the region. However, Israel fears Tehran is also establishing a long-term presence to counter it from Syrian soil.......

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitor, said 26 soldiers were killed, most of them Iranian. Tehran state media initially appeared to confirm the attack, saying 18 Iranians died, but later reported an unnamed official denying that any of its countrymen had been killed.

A Syrian rebel intelligence officer operating in north Homs province not far from Hama said the Brigade 47 base was extensive, partly dug into a hillside, and contained a “scientific research centre” used to produce missiles as well as to house the Revolutionary Guard command. Syrian state media and pro-Hezbollah news agencies in Lebanon reported that a major weapons depot was struck.

The Observatory said it contained surface-to-surface missiles - a category that Iran has provided to Hezbollah in large quantities but which may now be intended for the wide range of Shia militias, including Iraqi, Afghan and Pakistani Shia fighters, who the Guard is supporting in Syria. “The strike hit the Guard sites in the centre and the ammunition warehouses,” the rebel officer, Captain Abdullah al-Zoubi, told The Times. “An estimate of 80 soldiers and commanders from the Guard and the regime were killed.”......

Senior Israeli officials, who rarely admit military operations in Syria, conspicuously failed to deny suggestions that its air force was responsible for the raids.

ORAC

10th May 2018, 05:43

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/iran-attacks-israel-with-rockets-after-deal-torn-up-0gv8hnp3g

Iranian forces based in Syria fired a salvo of rockets at Israeli military positions as Tehran vented its fury over President Trump’s decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal. (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/trump-ditches-rotten-nuclear-deal-with-iran-qh8srjqwr)

According to the Israeli military, Iran’s Quds Force, the expeditionary unit of the Revolutionary Guards, launched 20 artillery rockets into the Golan Heights. Israel said that some of the rockets were intercepted and shot down by its Iron Dome missile defence system. A few got though and caused “some damage” to Israeli military installations but no casualties.

The Israeli army said it hit back by striking “dozens” of Iranian sites in Syria, targeting intelligence, storage and logistics as well as the origin of the rockets. Air-raid sirens were heard on the Israeli side of the Golan before the shelling and residents were told to stay in shelters. Israel is not seeking an escalation, a military spokesman said......

Lonewolf_50

10th May 2018, 13:27

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/iran-attacks-israel-with-rockets-after-deal-torn-up-0gv8hnp3gThe Israeli army said it hit back by striking “dozens” of Iranian sites in Syria, targeting intelligence, storage and logistics as well as the origin of the rockets. Air-raid sirens were heard on the Israeli side of the Golan before the shelling and residents were told to stay in shelters. Israel is not seeking an escalation, a military spokesman said...... If I may respond to the "spokesman's" assertion about not seeking escalation, I'll offer that in the last few weeks, the Israelis have lobbed a few rounds into Syria at (reported) Iranian positions/facilities.
OK, the Iranian Quds force lobs a few rounds back at them.
So the Israelis lob a few back ... no, wait, they do indeed escalate. Dozens of targets isn't "a few."
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dczw9YnWkAAWdJ1.jpg
Methinks the major protests too loudly .... :rolleyes:

The Sultan

10th May 2018, 16:34

This smells of an Israeli false flag operation like the US’s Tonkin Gulf excuse to get deeper into Vietnam.

Heathrow Harry

10th May 2018, 17:35

Both sides want a fight but neither really wants to kick it off right now....

Israel has the tech, Iran the numbers....

TEEEJ

10th May 2018, 20:12

The Israeli's have released some footage from the strikes. Targeting a Syrian SA-22 Greyhound (Pantsir S1) air defence system.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RI_tr7aGR8c

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir-S1

SA-22 was at Mezzeh Airbase, Damascus.

http://files.abovetopsecret.com/files/img/qm5af4af74.JPG

Map link (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir-S1)

https://goo.gl/maps/YmLXPaL7x6U2

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mezzeh_Military_Airport

Lonewolf_50

10th May 2018, 20:56

E@TheSultan: uh, no. The Iranians have made no secret about their presence in Syria.
False flag? No.
A bloody mess? Yeah.
Chance to get messier? Oh, hell yeah.
@TEEEJ: thanks for that video.

Brat

11th May 2018, 00:02

E@TheSultan: uh, no. The Iranians have made no secret about their presence in Syria...

Or their intended aim of wiping Israel off the face of the earth.

tartare

11th May 2018, 00:18

It's a little puzzling to me why Israel is accused of trying to provoke a conflict.
From what I've read, they observed missile launchers and troops moving in a suspicious way near the Golan Heights.
That's kind of like being armed, and having a guy with a handgun starting to raise it and point it at you.
Now - do you wait to find out if the handgun is loaded?
Or if he will pull the trigger?
Nope.
As soon as you can see the end of the barrel - you shoot him first.
I would suggest the IDF simply saw the end of the barrel
What's the old saying "Ravi, may he rest in peace, was a good Jew. But you know what - he was a lousy shot.".
And yes - unless there has been a stern phone call from Moscow in the last 24 hours - I agree this could get very ugly indeed.

EDITED to add: No phonecall likely to come by the looks of things - tacit approval given to Bibi by Vladimir Vladomirivich
https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Putin-stops-neither-Iran-nor-Israel-in-Syria-556151

A_Van

11th May 2018, 05:47

tartare,

Agree with you. Having tens of millions religious fanatics in your "neighbourhood" shouting that your country must die.... can hardly find another example on the map of this planet.
And the situation is getting worse: besides Syria, Hezbollah has been legalized as a major political force in Lebanon, pro-Iranian folks are growing "on steroids" in Iraq.

However, perhaps Israel should not escalate too high unless there is a real deadly threat arising. As it is written in their book "eye for eye, tooth for tooth", taking a whole jaw away for a tooth seems be an overreaction in the current situation. Also showing an underground archive with tons of papers on the iranian N-program is not very impressive as a "casus belli".

tartare

11th May 2018, 06:13

Aman now saying this round is over - but also that this was the largest action launched since 1974!
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-iran-clash-intel-chiefs-say-this-round-over-but-strife-will-continue-1.6075752?utm_source=Push_Notification&utm_medium=web_push&utm_campaign=General

dead_pan

11th May 2018, 18:23

The Israeli's have released some footage from the strikes

Felt a nad sorry for the bloke who ran to the vehicle just before the missile impacted - I'm guessing he realised he'd left his phone in the cab? Mind you I guess the group of guys stood chatting just to the vehicle's left didn't fare too well either.

Brat

11th May 2018, 23:43

Israeli actions in Syria are co-ordinated with Russia, Russia being kept fully informed. It is believed that the Russians had passed on warning to the Iranian IRGC that they were on thin ice. The warnings it seems were ignored.

It should not be forgotten that in the Iraq Iran war the Iranian were happy to use children to clear mines.
http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/michael-j-totten/iran-recruits-child-soldiers-–-again
https://www.nytimes.com/1984/02/12/magazine/iran-five-years-of-fanaticism.html

They do have a ‘slightly’ different view on the value of human life.

A_Van

12th May 2018, 06:05

Felt a nad sorry for the bloke who ran to the vehicle just before the missile impacted - I'm guessing he realised he'd left his phone in the cab? Mind you I guess the group of guys stood chatting just to the vehicle's left didn't fare too well either.

According to opinions of experts in the Russian media (that sound realistic) the Israelis, as usual, easily outplayed the arabs (or persians) in tactics. The latter quickly shot out all the ammunition during the first strike and then remained helpless. Moreover, those lazy bones even did not bother to hide the SAM vehicles (and themselves) converting them into easy static targets.

Heathrow Harry

12th May 2018, 15:55

well some of the Iranians aren't totally stupid in my experience

No doubt General Soleimani has a few bright ideas on better ways to cause the Israelis grief than firing rockets over the border and getting hammered by the IAF - I suspect it will be something new and very different......

ImageGear

12th May 2018, 17:10

My experience also.

Of all the Jordanians, Iraqi's, Saudi's, Kuwaiti's, Egyptians and Libyans I have met, the Iranians are generally, by far, the smartest and most innovative. If we could encourage them to take a more positive leadership and diplomatic role in the Middle East, instead of fostering insurrection, everyone would be better off including the Israelis

Unfortunately, I fear there is too much bad blood and western interference flowing around.

IG

Brat

12th May 2018, 22:32

...Unfortunately, I fear there is too much bad blood and western interference flowing around.IG

No Iranian interference at all????

Interference in the ME at the moment which includes the Quds Force specifically and the IRGC as a whole who have just taken a pointed hint from Israel for their recent ‘interference’ in Syria and, as of October 2017, designated as terrorist organisations by the U.S. government due to their direct connection to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Palestine, and their support for Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Houthi’s who have been increasing their missile attacks on both aircraft and Saudi cities with what is said to be increasingly sophisticated missiles provide by Iran.
U.N. council mulls condemning Iran over Yemen's Houthis' getting... (https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-yemen-security-un/u-n-council-mulls-condemning-iran-over-yemens-houthis-getting-missiles-idUKKCN1G10W2)

And people are still bleating about Trump thinking the deal with Iran is seriously flawed.

ImageGear

13th May 2018, 01:34

No Iranian interference at all????
Note my fostering insurrection I am not saying that Iran is the innocent aggrieved nation here, and I also recognise their interference in the affairs of others, however, I believe that a basic desire exists among most parties to defuse the current political stalemate.

I further contend that when viewed in the whole, only one nation is not committed to reducing the impact of that stalemate, and it is not Iran, Syria or Israel.

IG

TEEEJ

14th May 2018, 11:04

@TEEEJ: thanks for that video.

No problem, Lonewolf.

Update on the Pantsir footage.

https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/513470-here-comes-syria-119.html#post10143403

It appears that the Pantsir was hit by an IAI Harop drone. From information released it was Lt Colonel Ayham Habib that was seen in the video running to the Pantsir. First Lieutenant Ali Essa Mustafa was also killed.

https://baomoi-photo-1-td.zadn.vn/w700_r1/18/05/13/25/26014664/3_58010.jpeg
http://www.dogswar.ru/images/stories/samolet/HAROP-3.jpg
Details at following Twitter link

https://twitter.com/WaelAlRussi/status/995012862853767169

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9V9mbC-Esmg

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAI_Harop

dead_pan

14th May 2018, 12:02

Pretty clever piece of tech the Harop.

I guess there's always the option to "Kamikaze" a UAV onto a high value target-of-opportunity even if it weren't purpose-built for such use.

Lonewolf_50

14th May 2018, 15:36

Glad to see the post putting the human face on someone trying to do their job. Lt Colonel Ayham Habib (whether you like the current Syrian regime or not) and his crew were doing their best to deal with an attack on their country's base.

henra

14th May 2018, 20:16

Felt a nad sorry for the bloke who ran to the vehicle just before the missile impacted - I'm guessing he realised he'd left his phone in the cab? Mind you I guess the group of guys stood chatting just to the vehicle's left didn't fare too well either.
In all honesty, anyone working in SAM Sites should be clear that those are sure Death traps for all sitting in or close to them. They are always the first targets to be wiped out. And a superior attacker won't stop until the last one is wiped out. Only chance of survival: Not being SAM operator. They may take out a Fighter jet or two until their own extinction but the latter you can take for granted since the advent of Cruise missiles and precision bombs. It is about the last job I would do in Military.

Lonewolf_50

18th May 2018, 17:55

It is about the last job I would do in Military. Yeah.
Interesting declaration by Mr Putin today: he's asserting that all foreign troops will leave Syria. (http://www.newsweek.com/putin-tells-assad-all-foreign-troops-will-leave-syria-doesnt-say-when-933669)
I am a bit puzzled: does he have that much influence with Iran and Hezbollah?
He can probably negotiate a deal with the US/NATO, but Iran? Hezbollah seems to be well out of reach; they live in that neighborhood. (I'd heard some interesting stuff about their developing a UAV capabiity but won't comment further on that).

A_Van

18th May 2018, 18:19

Yeah.
Interesting declaration by Mr Putin today: he's asserting that all foreign troops will leave Syria. (http://www.newsweek.com/putin-tells-assad-all-foreign-troops-will-leave-syria-doesnt-say-when-933669)
I am a bit puzzled: does he have that much influence with Iran and Hezbollah?
He can probably negotiate a deal with the US/NATO, but Iran? Hezbollah seems to be well out of reach; they live in that neighborhood. (I'd heard some interesting stuff about their developing a UAV capabiity but won't comment further on that).

Good questions and right answers.
IMHO, he has very little influence on Iran and no influence on Hez at all.

ORAC

18th May 2018, 19:03

Huge explosions rock Syrian airbase

At least 11 Syrian soldiers have been killed in a massive explosion at an airbase in Hama, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Sky News Arabia reported that dozens of members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards were also killed in the blast in the central part of the country. It said surface-to-air missiles systems had been the target of an attack. Footage allegedly from the scene showed a mushroom-shaped plume of smoke towering above the skyline.

The string of blasts hit a rocket, fuel and weapons store within the strategic military airport, 150 miles north of Damascus. It is also home to forces from Syria’s closest two allies: Iran and Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia militia group. The Syrian regime confirmed the explosions but declined to specify the cause.

Rami Abdurrahman, director of SOHR, said: “Latest reports say it was a technical problem within the weapons storage, that contained naval mine equipment, rocket and fuel supplies. So far we know of 11 dead, all Syrian,” He added that the Hama airbase was where Syrian regime warplanes take off to carry out airstrikes on central and northern Syria.

Sources told Sky News Arabia that 57 members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards died in the explosions. It speculated that Israel was behind the attack. Israel has repeatedly hit Iran’s military infrastructure in Syria, fearing it is building permanent bases in Syria from which to attack Israel.

Last Thursday Israel launched 70 separate airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria, in retaliation for what it claimed was an unsuccessful Iranian rocket attack on its forces in the occupied Golan Heights. They targeted multiple areas around Damascus including al-Kiswah military base, where the Iranian Grad and Fajr rockets were allegedly fired from.

The Israeli army declined to comment to The Times.

Al Jazeera Arabic reported that the Syrian regime transferred a large part of Iran’s weaponry and personnel to Hama military airport, after other bases in Hama were hit in suspected Israeli strikes.

Lonewolf_50

19th May 2018, 15:54

The first four paragraphs are coherent. The rest is... speculation? Give it 48 hours and see, maybe?

The comments under this video are about what one would expect. But I liked this one.
Ali El Moussa (https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCp__SO52Vc5NlxvigQ8ZPWQ)
19 hours ago (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xswuFyxB6j4&lc=Ugx0co8mTjD_5c4U_tN4AaABAg)
Easy lads getting info that this was a place where they have been keeping confescated weapons from ISIS and other terror organisations. Dont know THE details but. Dont think anyone striked aginst syria. So lets get more info before we start blameing left and right.

Brat

20th May 2018, 10:55

Obviously just a ‘controlled’ disposal of captured ordinance then.

Nothing to see, move along now.

henra

20th May 2018, 11:00

Rami Abdurrahman, director of SOHR, said: “Latest reports say it was a technical problem within the weapons storage, that contained naval mine equipment, rocket and fuel supplies.

Hmm, dunno. In the video you can clearly see a second explosion quite some distance from the first big smoke plume. That smells rather like the result of an air strike.
OK, admitted an air strike will undoubtedly lead to technical problems in a weapons storage, so there will be some truth to that statement.

glad rag

20th May 2018, 11:48

Just goes to show how the West has lost the information war...

KK76e0x80mw

gums

22nd May 2018, 14:06

Salute!

Aviationist has the poop. And it may be a player for the big explosions a few days ago.

Gums sends...

Lyneham Lad

22nd May 2018, 15:40

Salute!

Aviationist has the poop. And it may be a player for the big explosions a few days ago.

Gums sends...

And here is the link to the Aviationist article... (https://theaviationist.com/2018/05/22/everything-we-know-and-dont-know-about-israel-launching-worlds-first-air-strikes-using-the-f-35-stealth-aircraft/)

Snip:-
Israel is the first country to have used the F-35 stealth aircraft in combat, the Israeli Air Force Commander, Maj. Gen. Amikam Norkin said on Tuesday, in remarks that were made public through the IDF’s official Twitter account.

According to Haaretz (https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/iranians-fired-32-rockets-at-israel-during-flare-up-israeli-air-force-1.6110706), the Chief of IAF also presented images, that have not surfaced thus far, showing the F-35I over Beirut, Lebanon and said that the stealth fighter did not participate in the last strike in Syria but did in two previous ones.

“The Adir planes are already operational and flying in operational missions. We are the first in the world to use the F-35 in operational activity,” he said.

gums

22nd May 2018, 18:02

Salute!

TNX Lyne, was in a hurry and had to depart the fix.

Recall that I have a personal and vested interest in the IAF from long ago.

So I taught and flew with the initial IAF Viper cadre back in 1980. Only one I clearly remember from later years was the young one that died in Columbia. They all used pseudonyms and we did not even know where they lived in Ogden or their phone numbers. They called in for the flight schedule times. Security was extreme. The senior dude was about my age and experience, and the rest were progressively younger on down to the "golden boy" who became an astronaut.

I am sure that most flew in the Iraqi nuke attack just one year later.

So we see a repeat of what they did for the nuke reactor building a few years back, huh?

The big problem for IAF is showing their "hole cards" too early. So I would not see a lotta missions using the F-35 until a large conflict.

Gums sends...

ORAC

27th May 2018, 16:17

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/battle-syria-us-russian-mercenaries-commandos-islamic-state-a8370781.html

The truth about the brutal four-hour battle between Russian mercenaries and US commandos in Syria

“......Commanders of the rival militaries had long steered clear of the other by speaking through often-used deconfliction telephone lines. In the days leading up to the attack, and on opposite sides of the Euphrates River, Russia and the US were backing separate offensives against the Isis in Syria (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/Syria?amp)’s oil-rich Deir el-Zour (https://www.independent.co.uk/topic/deir-el-zour?amp) province, which borders Iraq.

US military officials repeatedly warned about the growing mass of troops. But Russian military officials said they had no control over the fighters assembling near the river – even though US surveillance equipment monitoring radio transmissions had revealed the ground force was speaking in Russian.

The documents described the fighters as a “pro-regime force,” loyal to President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. It included some Syrian government soldiers and militias, but US military and intelligence officials have said a majority were private Russian paramilitary mercenaries – and most likely a part of the Wagner Group, a company often used by the Kremlin to carry out objectives that officials do not want to be connected to the Russian government.

“The Russian high command in Syria assured us it was not their people,” defence secretary Jim Mattis told senators in testimony last month. He said he directed Gen Joseph F Dunford Jr, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, “for the force, then, to be annihilated.”

“And it was.”.......

Brat

27th May 2018, 16:37

That must have been a thought provoking little exercise for Russian forces in Syria.

Watching their debadged proxies have their arses handed to them...in pieces.

So much for Putin’s 'Russian Heros.'

etudiant

28th May 2018, 00:45

Without knowing the details of this engagement, the availability of a B-52 strike suggests the US had full knowledge of the planned assault. It takes time for a B-52 to reach the Mid East, even if it is prepared and loaded beforehand.
So the aircraft must have been airborne when the assault started.
The lesson learned by the Russians will surely included much more emphasis on planning secrecy, as well as better monitoring of the surrounding air space.

ORAC

28th May 2018, 04:56

etudiant,

The B-52s were based at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar where a detachment had been deployed for nearly 2 years. Only jus5 been rotated for a B-1 deployment.

A_Van

28th May 2018, 08:24

......
The lesson learned by the Russians will surely included much more emphasis on planning secrecy, as well as better monitoring of the surrounding air space.

Not sure it is relevant or applicable in the considered case.
As far as I read, there were two (or more) mobs fighting for oil-rich locations in Syria. One mob hired Russian mercenaries (or volunteers, whatever) who were recruited on an individual basis by the Wagner company. They are poorly equiped thus "monitoring of the air space" is not applicable here at all. Regarding tactics, their punpkin-headed client simply commanded "go and fight" so they quickly found themselves in a helpless situaion.

The fact that the Russian military made it clear to the US forces that they did not care much about the mobs' businesses testifies to a nearly zero coupling to those mercenaries.
I think that similar US "Blackwater" (now "Academia") guys are more tightly linked to or coordinated by the regular forces.

Easy Street

28th May 2018, 09:14

etudiant,

The B-52s were based at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar where a detachment had been deployed for nearly 2 years. Only jus5 been rotated for a B-1 deployment.

Yes indeed, providing several hours of planned on-call close air support every day, which seems to have overlapped with this unusual tasking. That B52s provided close air support for urban combat (!) in the modern climate shows how much the nature of its operations has been changed by GPS guided munitions and quick, accurate coordinate generation capabilities: in the air, on the ground and remotely.

ORAC

28th Jun 2018, 06:17

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/chemical-weapons-watchdog-wins-powers-to-assign-blame-7k3thhjhz

Chemical weapons watchdog wins powers to assign blame

The world’s chemical weapons watchdog was empowered to name and shame those responsible for chemical attacks in Syria after Britain won a victory over Russia yesterday.

Russian efforts to protect the Syrian regime from censure for using chemical weapons collapsed after a western alliance led by Britain voted overwhelmingly to give the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) enhanced powers to identify those behind the attacks in Syria. The vote, which passed by 82 to 24, came at the end of two days of wrangling at a special session of the OPCW in the Hague yesterday, the culmination of an intense diplomatic offensive by Britain to bolster the global ban on use of chemical weapons. Previously, the OPCW could say whether chemical weapons had been used, but not who was responsible.

Russia, with the help of allies including Syria, Iran and Venezuela, tried to prevent the resolution from reaching the floor, and accused Britain of seeking to politicise the OPCW. Britain called the session after Russia repeatedly blocked attempts to reform the watchdog’s mandate in the 41-member executive council. A record 143 countries out of 193 sent representatives and 30 co-sponsored the British resolution.

Britain was moved to act after the poisoning with a nerve agent of Sergei Skripal, the Russian former spy, and his daughter in Salisbury in March, an attack blamed on the Kremlin.

Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, hailed the “overwhelming” vote. “After the recent spate in the use of chemical weapons at Salisbury, Syria and elsewhere, it’s great that so many of our friends and partners have supported the UK,” he said. “The result of this vote is that the OPCW now has a crucial extra power . . . to point the finger at the organisation, the state, that they think is responsible, and that is crucial if we are going to deter the use of these vile weapons.”

Russia said the vote threw the body’s future into doubt. “A lot of the countries that voted against the measure are starting to think about how the organisation will exist and function in the future,” Georgy Kalamonov, Russia’s industry minister, said, adding that it faced “an artificially-created crisis”.

A_Van

28th Jun 2018, 13:39

Actually these were efforts to encourage terrorist groups (like An Nusra and its derivatives) and their friends such as "white helmets" to keep prepare and implement provocations with chemicals and then blame the other side.
But before doing that, it would make sense to at least better train all those clowns. Though I am not sure they will qualify to enter the Royal Academy of Dramatic Art :-)

Recall what a poor show they staged the previous time? They brought some kids into a hospital near Damascus shouting that there was a chem. attack, while indeed they simply took all the kids out of cellars giving them chocolates to partricipate in the show. Later some kids with their parents and doctors who were on duty on that day were brought to the Hague and spoke at a OPCW press conference confirming that there was no gas there, they were not poisoned but just scared by armed thugs. All people were real, no masks, faces matched the staged video. No surprise that NATO countries ignored that press-conference.

Now they prepare some new show in the Idlib province.

ORAC

19th Jul 2018, 07:06

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/assad-forces-trap-civilians-against-golan-heights-0rxlb9s2c

Assad forces trap civilians against Golan Heights

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.gmforum.com-vbulletin/1117x628/methode_2ftimes_2fprod_2fweb_2fbin_2f38ea3d58_8a9b_11e8_9b4b _d04c94d077dc_0cf1b758ca9c6c8c58d01915a0b065eb585544b2.jpg

Hundreds of thousands of displaced people, interspersed with rebel groups fighting a rearguard action against advancing Assad regime forces, were crammed against the fence along Syria’s border with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/iranian-militias-test-israel-with-advance-on-golan-heights-hlsjg63k8)yesterday. Rebel forces firing artillery less than 50 yards from the fence were seen in photographs taken from the Israeli side, as regime forces advanced to within a few miles.

Israel, which has dropped the rebel groups it once supported, is warning that it will not offer refuge. It is also warning the Assad regime not to bring its forces up to the fence, which is protected by a military exclusion zone under the 1974 UN-negotiated ceasefire which established the border. It is unclear whether the regime will respect that, given the presence of rebel militias, a circumstance not foreseen by the ceasefire treaty.....

Israel’s prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, thought that he had won promises from President Putin of Russia that pro-Iranian forces would be kept away from the latest fighting. But Israeli military officials have confirmed rebel claims that pro-Iranian militias have nonetheless been operating within 20 miles of the border. They were spotted in the town of Da’el, 18 miles from the border.......

The White House decreed that it would not support the rebels if they resisted, and Israel, which had funnelled some money, aid and arms over the border to bolster the rebels against Iranian-backed forces, followed suit. Mr Netanyahu, in two visits to Moscow, asked Mr Putin for guarantees over the Iranian role in return. He is determined to prevent Iran building up a “new front” for anti-Israel activity in Syria, as it has done in areas of Lebanon controlled by Hezbollah.........

The International Rescue Committee said that 160,000 civilians had fled the fighting and were trapped between the border fence and the front lines. It said that many were living out in the open. “They can hear the fighting getting closer and worry it’s only a matter of time before the front line reaches them,” Mark Schnellbaecher, IRC’s Middle East vice-president, said.

Two hundred of the displaced marched up to the border, demanding to be let in, after an air strike on a school in the village of Ain al-Tineh, six miles from the fence, killed ten civilians. Ammar al-Zayed, 27, an activist currently near the border, said: “There’s only a little drinking water, there are no toilets, not enough tents, and no proper health care for children who are suffering diarrhoea and fatigue because of the high temperatures. Many people went to the Israeli border asking to be let in but nobody was allowed to come close at all.”

Israel has admitted thousands of Syrian civilians and rebel fighters for medical treatment, but has said it will not give them asylum...........

ORAC

19th Jul 2018, 19:40

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/assad-takes-control-at-last-in-cradle-of-revolution-that-sparked-syria-war-77mjs6kck

Rebels in southwest Syria (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/syria) have surrendered to the Assad regime, signalling the close of another chapter in the seven-year war. A spokesman for the Free Syrian Army confirmed today that a “reconciliation process” was under way in the west of Deraa province and in Quneitra, on the border with the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/assad-forces-trap-civilians-against-golan-heights-0rxlb9s2c). Those fighters who do not want to lay down their weapons will be ferried by bus to the last non-Isis rebel stronghold, in Idlib, northern Syria. Others will “reconcile” with the regime, which in practice means joining the regime army.....

The outcome was regarded as inevitable once the United States informed the rebels in the area that they would be on their own if they chose to resist the regime advance. Hundreds of civilians and fighters were killed in a blitz by regime and Russian jets before the army began moving across the area. Hundreds of thousands of civilians fled towards the Jordanian and Israeli borders........

Israel said today it had continued to pour in humanitarian supplies to the tens of thousands of displaced civilians who have gathered near its border but has refused to give refuge to either fighters or civilians fleeing the fighting. Jordan has done the same.

The Assad regime, in a statement on state media, appeared to meet a key Israeli demand by saying troops would return to their positions as before 2011. The Israelis had threatened to attack regime forces if they occupied a demilitarised zone that stretches alongside the border fence. Russian military police are also said to be in the area.........

ORAC

24th Jul 2018, 06:29

A_Van

24th Jul 2018, 08:46

David’s Sling fired in combat for first time

Israel’s David’s Sling anti-ballistic missile system made its combat debut on Jul. 23 when two interceptors were fired when a pair of Syrian OTR-21 (NATO: SS-21) ballistic missiles were detected approaching Israel’s border. One of the interceptor was ordered to self-destruct after it was determined that both SS-21s were to land inside Syrian territory. It is not known what happened to the other interceptor.

Alert 5 » David?s Sling fired in combat for first time - Military Aviation News (http://alert5.com/2018/07/24/davids-sling-fired-in-combat-for-first-time/)

Hmm, just checked what Israeli news have posted this morning and see that there is some noise of dissatisfaction claiming that the "David’s Sling" did not perform well and not intercepted the Syrian missiles. Fortunately, the latter (which are pretty much obsolete and dated back to 1975-1980) also failed and hit the Earth yet on the Syrain territory (though one landed just 1 km close to the border).

ORAC

24th Jul 2018, 09:06

some noise of dissatisfaction claiming that the "David’s Sling" did not perform well and not intercepted the Syrian missiles

"One of the interceptor was ordered to self-destruct after it was determined that both SS-21s were to land inside Syrian territory. It is not known what happened to the other interceptor."

A_Van

24th Jul 2018, 09:32

"One of the interceptor was ordered to self-destruct after it was determined that both SS-21s were to land inside Syrian territory. It is not known what happened to the other interceptor."

Yes, I read your previous post. Obviously we read different sources. And I think that native Israeli news is more reliable than distant US/UK sources.

Here is the one I was referring too, FYI
http://www.newsru.co.il/israel/24jul2018/prasha_103.html (http://www.newsru.co.il/israel/24jul2018/prasha_103.htmlSorry)

Sorry it's in Russian, but any online translator will at least provide the contents. E.g. here is an excerpt:

"The website of the Haaretz newspaper wrote that the Syrian rockets haven't been brought down. Operators "Prachtchi David" had to destroy interceptor missiles after they haven't hit the mark, it was told in this publication.

Yoav Zeytun writes on the website Ynet that preliminary investigation confirms correctness of the decision on start of antimissiles, each of which costs 1 million dollars as there was a real threat: one of the Syrian missiles launched approximately for 100 km to an estimated point of interception has fallen all in kilometer from the Israeli border. The author of the publication considers that the Syrian rockets haven't been intercepted because of a technological, but not human factor. The Ministry of Defence and Raphael concern investigate this incident."

ORAC

24th Jul 2018, 15:27

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-44940599

Israel 'shoots down' Syrian fighter near Golan Heights

Israel says it has shot down a Syrian warplane which entered its airspace - a rare incident between the two foes.

Two surface-to-air missiles were fired at the Sukhoi fighter jet, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) tweeted. According to Israeli reports, it happened over the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The pilot's fate is not clear.

Syrian news agency Sana said Israel had targeted the jet over Syrian airspace, but did not say whether it was hit. Sana quoted an unnamed military source as saying the plane was conducting raids against "armed terrorist groups" near the southern Yarmouk Valley......

Israel's Haaretz news website said residents in northern Israel saw interceptor missiles fired and heard explosions. Flames and smoke were also later seen rising from the area of the fence between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights, AFP news agency reports......

ORAC

5th Aug 2018, 06:16

China offers troops to Syria. Nit sure their reasons are just as he surmises - just like Russia it will be an opportunity to put theirnlatest up against current western technology and gather intelligence and assessments.

https://www.snafu-solomon.com/2018/08/china-might-fight-alongside-syria-in.html

Heathrow Harry

5th Aug 2018, 08:00

That's a long way from offering troops........... could be kit, could be "advisors," could be medics, could be intelligence.......

"Two Chinese diplomats have raised the possibility of Chinese military operations in Syria alongside the Assad regime.
Speaking to Syrian pro-government daily Al-Watan on Thursday, China’s Ambassador to Damascus, Qi Qianjin, said that the Chinese military is willing to participate “in some way” alongside the Syrian Army in Idlib as well as other parts of Syria.

Additionally, Chinese military attaché Wong Roy Chang, in a similar statement also delivered to Al-Watan, reportedly stated that there is “ongoing” military cooperation between the two countries.

“We, China, wish to develop our relations with the Syrian Army. As for participating in the Idlib operation, it requires a political decision,” Chang said. "

ORAC

5th Aug 2018, 08:45

I remember what happened to the Chinese embassy in Belgrade when they didn’t take the hint about providing intelligence on US operations to the Sebian government.

I believe the US government apologised for the JDAM that went astray - all 5 of them.......

ORAC

1st Oct 2018, 16:25

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/cold-war-on-iraqs-frontier-with-syria-is-hotting-up-k6pc2gszmCold war on Iraq’s frontier with Syria is hotting up
The last checkpoint before the border was different: the scale, the delay but most of all the flags. During our long drive across the Iraqi desert in a convoy of United Nations jeeps and army pick-up trucks we had been swiftly waved through. Not here. Instead, we were stopped by militiamen whose black, green and white banners gave the post away as belonging to the “Popular Mobilisation Units”, militias controlled by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. It took a call from the mayor of the border town, al-Qaim, to let us through.

The abrupt change of control over the road was not random. This border is the most sensitive 12-mile patch of territory in the world. On the Syrian side, a few miles away across the sand, lies a giant base controlled by Iran, unreachable to outsiders but spotted by satellites, thought to contain thousands of Afghan, Iraqi and other Shia fighters. It was bombed by unknown forces in June.

A hundred miles further into Syria is a large, remote and previously unwanted patch of desert now inhabited by 1,000 US, French and Norwegian special forces, alongside perhaps 2,000 allied Syrian Arab Sunni tribal fighters. This territory, previously largely uninhabited, is now a fixed western presence, described satirically by British and US officials as “the spherical emirate of al-Tanf” after the expanding military base at its core.

This border, straddled by the Iraqi town of al-Qaim and its Syrian twin, al-Bukamal, is a patchwork of Iraqi army, western, and militia control, and in the wreckage of Iraq and Syria has become the epicentre of the conflict between the US and Iran.

It is a cold war, but it is hotting up. President Trump originally called time on al-Tanf, which came into existence as part of US support for rebels in the Syrian civil war, saying in his election campaign he no longer wanted to waste resources trying to overthrow President Assad. Now he has done a volte-face, under pressure from his foreign policy advisers, particularly Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, and John Bolton, the national security adviser, to try to scupper Iran’s advance across the region. Both are long-term Iran hawks.

“Trump was opposed to staying put in Syria but it seems the ‘steady state’ has got its way at the moment,” a diplomat in the region said, referring to foreign policy greybeards around Mr Trump. “There doesn't seem any likelihood the troops are pulling out soon.”

The US establishment has become fixated on what they are calling the Iranian road to the Mediterranean and the Israeli border, expanding Tehran’s hold over the so-called Shia crescent. Iran’s support for President Assad has allowed it to set up bases across Syria manned by members of the Revolutionary Guard, officially, as “advisers”, and Shia militias recruited in Syria and across the region.Among them are the Lebanese Hezbollah, several Iraqi brigades and fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Shia minorities. The Iranians already have Hezbollah in Lebanon, which leaves the only gap in the crescent as being the Iraqi territory between the Syrian and Iranian borders, which is why the road west from Baghdad has become so significant.

At Mr Trump’s new command, the US is fighting back. A US envoy, Brett McGurk, is fighting an open battle with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard al-Quds’ brigade head, General Qassem Soleimani, to shape the incoming Iraqi government.

It is a battle where neither side can win outright but Iran is gaining the upper hand. Hadi al-Ameri, who heads the biggest Iran-backed PMU militia, the Badr Corps, also leads the Fateh, or Liberation, party which came second in May’s elections and looks likely to be a key member of any ruling coalition. On the ground, the Badr Corps is establishing bases with its PMU allies from the Iranian border across Iraq. The 12-mile stretch of frontier they have secured west of al-Qaim is the key choke point, and the centre of Iranian-US rivalry. It is a volatile mix.

“The Iraqi army, which is close to the Americans, control the actual border crossing at al-Qaim,” said Hishem al-Hashimi, a prominent Iraqi security analyst. “On the other side in Syria there are 8,000 Shia militiamen.”

He has also been taken by American forces to visit al-Tanf, a rare outsider’s vew. “From there the road [into Syria] is monitored by the Americans, French and Norwegians,” he said. His experience of al-Tanf brought home its unique qualities. “A genie couldn’t live there,” he said. “But it’s an open landscape and they have vision over 45 miles. It’s a very good choice for them.” Al-Tanf’s original Free Syrian Army forces now number less than 400, compared with the 1,000 western troops and up to 2,000 tribal fighters, Mr Hashimi said.

The battle against Islamic State is now in its last stages. Mr Trump said in March troops would afterwards be withdrawn, but now his new envoy to the Syrian opposition says they will be staying, both as a brake on Iran and as a tool to undermine Assad himself. “We will make it our business to make life as miserable as possible for that flopping cadaver of a regime and let the Russians and Iranians, who made this mess, get out of it,” James Jeffrey, the envoy, said. This month Mr Bolton said US forces would stay so long as Iranian forces remained outside Iran.

The Iranian-backed forces are not backing down, however. General Soleimani has issued a direct warning to the US not to take on Iran, and American officials fear militias like the Badr Corps are preparing attacks on US forces. That threatens a return to the chaos following the 2003 invasion, when Iran-backed militias ravaged American and British troops, killing hundreds of them. “We are near you, where you can’t even imagine,” General Soleimani said this summer. “If you begin the war, we will end the war. You know that this war will destroy all that you possess.”..........

Lonewolf_50

1st Oct 2018, 17:44

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/cold-war-on-iraqs-frontier-with-syria-is-hotting-up-k6pc2gszm
Cold war on Iraq’s frontier with Syria is hotting up
The last checkpoint before the border was different: the scale, the delay but most of all the flags. During our long drive across the Iraqi desert in a convoy of United Nations jeeps and army pick-up trucks we had been swiftly waved through. Not here. Instead, we were stopped by militiamen whose black, green and white banners gave the post away as belonging to the “Popular Mobilisation Units”, militias controlled by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. It took a call from the mayor of the border town, al-Qaim, to let us through.

The abrupt change of control over the road was not random. This border is the most sensitive 12-mile patch of territory in the world. On the Syrian side, a few miles away across the sand, lies a giant base controlled by Iran, unreachable to outsiders but spotted by satellites, thought to contain thousands of Afghan, Iraqi and other Shia fighters. It was bombed by unknown forces in June.

A hundred miles further into Syria is a large, remote and previously unwanted patch of desert now inhabited by 1,000 US, French and Norwegian special forces, alongside perhaps 2,000 allied Syrian Arab Sunni tribal fighters. This territory, previously largely uninhabited, is now a fixed western presence, described satirically by British and US officials as “the spherical emirate of al-Tanf” after the expanding military base at its core.

This border, straddled by the Iraqi town of al-Qaim and its Syrian twin, al-Bukamal, is a patchwork of Iraqi army, western, and militia control, and in the wreckage of Iraq and Syria has become the epicentre of the conflict between the US and Iran.
It is a cold war, but it is hotting up. President Trump originally called time on al-Tanf, which came into existence as part of US support for rebels in the Syrian civil war, saying in his election campaign he no longer wanted to waste resources trying to overthrow President Assad. Now he has done a volte-face, under pressure from his foreign policy advisers, particularly Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, and John Bolton, the national security adviser, to try to scupper Iran’s advance across the region. Both are long-term Iran hawks.
“Trump was opposed to staying put in Syria but it seems the ‘steady state’ has got its way at the moment,” a diplomat in the region said, referring to foreign policy greybeards around Mr Trump. “There doesn't seem any likelihood the troops are pulling out soon.”
The US establishment has become fixated on what they are calling the Iranian road to the Mediterranean and the Israeli border, expanding Tehran’s hold over the so-called Shia crescent. Iran’s support for President Assad has allowed it to set up bases across Syria manned by members of the Revolutionary Guard, officially, as “advisers”, and Shia militias recruited in Syria and across the region. Among them are the Lebanese Hezbollah, several Iraqi brigades and fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Shia minorities. The Iranians already have Hezbollah in Lebanon, which leaves the only gap in the crescent as being the Iraqi territory between the Syrian and Iranian borders, which is why the road west from Baghdad has become so significant.
At Mr Trump’s new command, the US is fighting back. A US envoy, Brett McGurk, is fighting an open battle with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard al-Quds’ brigade head, General Qassem Soleimani, to shape the incoming Iraqi government. It is a battle where neither side can win outright but Iran is gaining the upper hand. Hadi al-Ameri, who heads the biggest Iran-backed PMU militia, the Badr Corps, also leads the Fateh, or Liberation, party which came second in May’s elections and looks likely to be a key member of any ruling coalition. On the ground, the Badr Corps is establishing bases with its PMU allies from the Iranian border across Iraq. The 12-mile stretch of frontier they have secured west of al-Qaim is the key choke point, and the centre of Iranian-US rivalry. It is a volatile mix.
“The Iraqi army, which is close to the Americans, control the actual border crossing at al-Qaim,” said Hishem al-Hashimi, a prominent Iraqi security analyst. “On the other side in Syria there are 8,000 Shia militiamen.”
He has also been taken by American forces to visit al-Tanf, a rare outsider’s vew. “From there the road [into Syria] is monitored by the Americans, French and Norwegians,” he said. His experience of al-Tanf brought home its unique qualities. “A genie couldn’t live there,” he said. “But it’s an open landscape and they have vision over 45 miles. It’s a very good choice for them.” Al-Tanf’s original Free Syrian Army forces now number less than 400, compared with the 1,000 western troops and up to 2,000 tribal fighters, Mr Hashimi said.
The battle against Islamic State is now in its last stages. Mr Trump said in March troops would afterwards be withdrawn, but now his new envoy to the Syrian opposition says they will be staying, both as a brake on Iran and as a tool to undermine Assad himself.
“We will make it our business to make life as miserable as possible for that flopping cadaver of a regime and let the Russians and Iranians, who made this mess, get out of it,” James Jeffrey, the envoy, said. This month Mr Bolton said US forces would stay so long as Iranian forces remained outside Iran.
The Iranian-backed forces are not backing down, however. General Soleimani has issued a direct warning to the US not to take on Iran, and American officials fear militias like the Badr Corps are preparing attacks on US forces. That threatens a return to the chaos following the 2003 invasion, when Iran-backed militias ravaged American and British troops, killing hundreds of them.
“We are near you, where you can’t even imagine,” General Soleimani said this summer. “If you begin the war, we will end the war. You know that this war will destroy all that you possess.”.......... Two items that I bolded.
1. I am sad to see that people coming back/reducing the foot print seems a low ball bet.
2. Undermining Assad strikes me as a pointless exercise, but the brake on Iran is a piece of geopolitical position that is about 40 years old for US geopolitics. Nothing new under the sun.
ORAC, thanks for the link, it's an interesting look at a messy situation.

glad rag

1st Oct 2018, 22:26

Cheers ORAC a bit of light reading there. :(

jolihokistix

31st Oct 2018, 12:05

Meantime the US has moved 500 Kurdish fighters away to the eastern Syrian border to help put the squeeze on a very large and deadly pocket of IS resistance armed with anti-tank missiles and other heavy weaponry. (Iraq and France have been shelling IS at the same time from east of the Iraqi border.)

Turkey, who agreed to joint patrols with the US up in Manbij, seem to have simply driven in and taken over, and taking full advantage of Kurd troop movements out of the area they have commenced heavy shelling today of Kobane and other villages east of the Euphrates along the northern Syrian border, places fought for at heavy sacrifice by the Kurds not too long ago. The Kurds drove IS out, but mainly just wanted their homelands back. Turkey does not want any Kurds along their southern border and openly states that she will force the creation of a bufferzone in those very same sacred Kurdish lands. Erdogan is announcing the start of this campaign.

Has some backdoor deal been made where the Kurds have been thrown to the wolves, I wonder? Are the Kurds hoping that by helping the US eradicate IS in eastern Syria, the US will stand by them in their defense against the Turkish onslaught? Should the Kurds trust the US?

And have Turkey done a deal partly to help IS by attacking the remaining Kurds back in their newly-won homelands?

Most of this information can be found digging around in the back pages of al Arabiya, etc., but little of it seems to have hit the mainstream Western press.

Lonewolf_50

31st Oct 2018, 19:13

How do we get the great unwashed of the UN GA to make appeals for the Kurds with the same vigor that they do for certain residents of the West Bank?
Why do the Kurds not have an advocate? Who did they piss off?

ORAC

19th Dec 2018, 16:56

Well it looks like Trump is throwing the Kurds to the wolves.

If if you have been keeping up with the press in the last few days, Turkey has been massing troops getting ready for a large attack on the remaining Kurdish held area in north-eastern Syria, and presumably also Iraq around the oilfield areas Turket has always considered they lost unfairly in the Treaty of Lausanne.

There are many US troops embedded with the Kurds and there were fears Turkish and US troops could end up in combat.

Well Trump has just announced that “ISIS has been defeated”, and all US troops are being pulled up with immediate effect.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/turkish-president-renews-threat-to-launch-offensive-against-kurds-in-us-controlled-territory-in-syria/2018/12/17/34b41596-022e-11e9-b5df-5d3874f1ac36_story.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/turkey-primed-to-start-offensive-against-us-backed-kurds-in-syria

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-18/erdogan-seeks-final-piece-in-power-puzzle-with-kurds-under-fire

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/dec/19/us-troops-syria-withdrawal-trump

unmanned_droid

19th Dec 2018, 17:16

I had to wonder what was really behind that call. Part of me thought it was pure 'troops home for christmas' PR.

I feel very sorry for the Kurds.

Kerosene Kraut

19th Dec 2018, 18:07

So Trump lets Russia win?

Just This Once...

19th Dec 2018, 18:41

The Kurds never get a break - they deserve better than this. Indeed, they deserved better the last time they were abandoned - and the time before that.

Lordflasheart

20th Dec 2018, 07:46

.....
Christmas Dinner -

Russia, Iran and Turkey have just had a big joint conflab and carved it all up, leaving the Kurds on the menu again. ‘Everyone else’ doesn’t even get to do the washing up this time.

It also seems Turkey’s having another Army purge – this time of those who are apparently less keen to b***gar their neighbours and involve NATO fighting NATO.

I wonder if Jim Mattis knew ** about this ? .... Apparently the Brits didn’t.

** and the French, Mr Pompeo, Mr Bolton etc ?

..........

SASless

20th Dec 2018, 12:25

Some reports are the timing of the decision came as a surprise to them as well!

Just This Once...

20th Dec 2018, 13:00

I think we can park the idea of joining the US in any military coalition; at least for the next few years.

With the abrupt loss of western military critical mass in the region I hope everyone else gets back ok.

ORAC

20th Dec 2018, 19:51

And so it starts - The Times

Turkey poised to attack Kurds as US pulls troops from Syria

Turkey is gearing up for a full-scale offensive in Syria that could shatter Kurdish dreams of statehood and permanently reconfigure alliances in the eight-year civil war.

Hulusi Akar, the Turkish defence minister, said that Ankara was “intensely” preparing for operations east of the Euphrates river, an area currently held by the Syrian Defence Forces (SDF), a coalition largely comprised of Kurdish fighters. His comments came only hours after the US — which created the SDF as its ground force against Isis in 2015 and has supported it since then with weapons shipments, airstrikes and troops — announced that it was pulling out of Syria (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/president-trump-claims-victory-and-pulls-us-troops-out-of-syria-qwvrjzjqt).

President Trump used the SDF’s victory last week in Hajin, Isis’s last major Syrian stronghold, to declare that the US mission had been accomplished. But his announcement was preceded by days of diplomatic wrangling with President Erdogan, who had been threatening to attack Kurdish areas where US troops are operating. Their negotiations culminated in a phone call last Friday in which Mr Trump informed Mr Erdogan that the withdrawal was imminent. A US official told Reuters that “everything that has followed is implementing the agreement that was made in that call”.......

The threat of an imminent Turkish attack sparked immediate reactions from the Kurds inside northeastern Syria today. Activists told The Times that Kurdish fighters had withdrawn from their bases in Amuda and Ras al Ain, next to the frontier, to Hassakeh, 60 miles inside Syrian territory......

US officials told Reuters that the Pentagon will also halt its air support in Syria — the decisive factor in the Kurds’ huge territorial gains over the past four years.....

WingsofRoffa

20th Dec 2018, 21:03

Lordflasheart

20th Dec 2018, 23:12

...........
Defense Secretary has resigned already - less than 24 hrs ?

...........

SASless

21st Dec 2018, 01:27

Read his Letter of Resignation.....very carefully.

This is a very good Man, a Marine's Marine, and probably the best Secretary of Defense we have ever had.

He points out some major accomplishments during the Two Years of his tenure as SecDef for Trump.

Trump for his faults has worked hard to re-build the US Military after twenty years of wartime operations.

Lonewolf_50

21st Dec 2018, 03:29

Well :mad:!
“My views on treating allies with respect and also being cleareyed about both malign actors and strategic competitors are strongly held,” Mr. Mattis wrote. “Because you have the right to have a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours on these and other subjects, I believe it is right for me to step down from my position.”
Secretary Mattis, General Mattis, thanks from the heart for your best efforts at doing what was hard to do and working for someone very hard to work for, and apparently impossible to work with.

We are now exposed: the DoD will be subjected to the tender ministrations of ... whomever the President tweets to tomorrow.
Some idiot like William Cohen. (Perry's successor for Clinton).
I can't even guess who'd take the job, but I am sure someone will.
I'll be drinking in the morning over this one.
Mr President, you don't know what you've got til it's gone.
It's a song lyric, but I think you need to take it to heart.
Further comments censored.
But Mr. Mattis’s core complaint was that Mr. Trump had lost sight of the import of the competition for global power with Russia and China, who want “a world consistent with their authoritarian model.”
Mr. Mattis was the primary author of a new American defense strategy with a central goal of taking on “revisionist” powers — an approach that some of Mr. Trump’s former advisers say the president never fully read. {Well, it wasn't on CNN, nor Twitter, so why would he read it?}
Mr. Trump’s decision to pull out of Syria, which was opposed by virtually every high-level administration official, but lauded by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, was the last straw.
Along with both the military and civilian leadership at the Pentagon, Mr. Mattis viewed the withdrawal as an abandonment of Kurdish fighters and other American allies, and a ceding of critical territory to Russia and Iran.
So angry was Mr. Mattis at the Syrian withdrawal that neither he, nor any other senior Pentagon official, would defend it publicly, despite requests from the White House to do so. As a result, Mr. Trump appeared by himself in a video showing him in front of the White House on Wednesday, announcing that victory over the Islamic State had been won. the silence was deafening.

A_Van

21st Dec 2018, 06:49

Putting lyrics and specific persons aside let's consider the current situation from the "territorial" point of view.
Indeed, most of the ISIS forces were taken out. The major part of the syrian territory was fought back by the Syrian (gov.) army. The minor part - by the kurds who were supported by the US. Just look at the map. The Idlib zone remains the main unresolved issue. But there Turkey claimed to take care of it. Neither Russia, nor US are interested to enter into a direct mil. conflict with Erdogan because of this (small) area. The same with the Kurds. And the Kurd issue will soon come next. The kurds expected to get a strong support from the West and were dreaming of finally establishing its own independend state. But none of the countries in the area (Syria, Turkey, Iraq, Iran) want such a new state because it can only be formed by sacrifising some parts of their own territories. It would blow up the Middle East again. Military wise, Turkey will not hesitate to enter this part of Syria to nail the kurds down and shut any efforts towards their independence. The Syrian governmental army is alone too weak to fight with the kurds, but together with Turkey the chances rise significantly.
Therefore, the US withdrawing from Syria NOW, before the kurds start building a sort of independence relying on the mil. support from the West (and crying to provide it) does not look stupid.
Let Turkey and Syria (with Russia behind) have this headache... Uncle Sam is washing hands.

Easy Street

21st Dec 2018, 08:38

Who am I to prognosticate on strategy in the Middle East, but from my comfortable armchair it has always been blindingly obvious that this would be the outcome. There was always precisely zero chance of the regional players allowing a Kurdish state to establish itself, and not much more of a chance for an autonomous region. If that wasn’t as obvious to policy makers a few years back then the train wreck of the Iraqi Kurds’ referendum should have made it so. It was good strategy to partner with the Kurds to clear out IS but it should have always been with a view to allowing the Syrian regime to re-establish sovereignty over its former territory, with a settlement over regional government that gave just enough to the Kurds for the west to be able to say it hadn’t thrown them to the wolves. What other credible end state is there besides Syrian sovereignty that doesn’t involve permanent western military presence, propping up an unsustainable position at huge expense and toxifying relations with a crucial player (the Turks)?

Sorry if this is too obvious for idealistic and over-academicised foreign policy wonks. Call it ‘realism’ with a curled lip if you will, but for me the clue is in the ‘real’...

Edit: I wondered at the time whether Mike Pompeo’s comments about the recent Russian expedition to Venezuela being a gross waste of taxpayers’ money would give Trump food for thought in precisely the opposite sense to that Pompeo intended, both on the funds the US is pouring away in what amounts to a futile attempt to interdict one of several possible Iranian supply lines to Hezbollah, and on how expeditionary operations are perceived from the other end of the telescope. Maybe I wasn’t too far out on that either.

SASless

21st Dec 2018, 09:19

Truman confirmed the concept about civilian control over the military during Korea.

This is not the same sort of issue but does remind us that the President is the Commander-in-Chief of US Military forces and head of the Executive Branch of Government.

Just as Kennedy had to remind the Joint Chiefs of that during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Just as Obama did in withdrawing troops from Iraq....against his military advisors wishes.

The Presidents are not always right....but they are always the President and it is in them the final authority lies.

If President Trump is trying to extricate us from a very precarious situation in particular and from the Middle East in general....combined with Energy Independence.....meaning less need to be in the Middle East.....perhaps that is good thing.

I do wish Mattis had stayed....but at some point these folks....the genuinely good ones do not stay too long for the very reasons they are the good ones.

Only Time will tell.

Kerosene Kraut

21st Dec 2018, 10:30

China trade, interest rates, Syria, Afghanistan, Mattis.

Could the president just be creating spectacular headlines in a row? Like to divert attention from his own troubles in D.C.? Like leading the media caravane elsewhere? Feels like it.

etudiant

21st Dec 2018, 12:18

Trade press has an interesting juxtaposition, suggesting that privatization may have been the issue:
https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2018/12/21/mattis-is-out-and-blackwater-is-back-we-are-coming/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=EBB%2012.21.18&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief

SASless

21st Dec 2018, 14:43

More likely is the simple fact the current strategy (or whichever version you wish to choose) has not been very successful....and we remain mired in an eighteen year old war that continues to cost lives, limbs, and money.

Trump ran on the promise to get us untangled in these kinds of affairs.

Look back to the very start of the Afghanistan War....Special Ops Teams with Air Support and related assistance defeated the hostile forces. Very small numbers of very capable troops on the ground with lots of sophisticated support did very well.

Then....the Conventional forces arrived and we know the rest of that story.

You also recall Trump asked the Military and Intelligence Communities what the end goal was for Afghanistan and Syria and was not pleased with the mumbling and non-committal responses.

Also....he is not a politician in the standard definition and is neither a Liberal or Conservative but rather is simply a pragmatist who comes from the business world and not prior elected offices.

He is results oriented and not happy at all with mealy mouthed half assed answers.

Washington and the Media are quite comfortable in their ruts....and hate being shaken up and made to justify their lack of success over the years.

The Kurdish area of Syria that is at risk is very small....and in the long game is not worth the risk to our national security interests in that region.

Our military likes to leave large numbers of boots on the ground in these affairs and thus increasing the likelihood of drawn out involvements.

At least this time Mattis resigned....and did so on his own with no encouragement from the President.

The last time he got out of step with a President....Obama fired him from CentCom.

Obama did not like being asked questions about his Iranian policy.

I am of the belief Trump is trying to extricate the US Military from these seemingly never ending conflicts and reducing our presence....military or civilian in the process.

The military has talked of much the same strategy as Prinz but using Spec Ops troops and local forces augmented by non-uniformed government personnel.

ORAC

21st Dec 2018, 19:35

https://www.politico.eu/article/jim-mattis-resignation-donald-trump-blindsides-allies-at-nato-army-defense/

Trump blindsides allies at NATO

SASless

21st Dec 2018, 21:55

Just for giggles....I went back to the first pages of this thread and began to read the posts.

What stood out was along about post 25-40 or so....where the question was asked..."why is the UK getting into this....why should we be involved in something that will drag out forever....etc...(or words to that effect).

Someone even asked why the UK should be the World's Policeman.

So here we are and as Trump begins to withdraw American Troops he is seen as being wrong.

Anyone care to explain how we have gone from being against any involvement to being against getting un-involved?

A take on all this that is a bit different than the Politico article.

http://thefederalist.com/2018/12/21/trumps-syria-withdrawal-policy-is-correct-but-communicated-horribly/?fbclid=IwAR19M4qjuoTpiVxD_4myw_oUPA0F4ZABRtUBuRqDmw-8vnduNy_4ogt7M9k#.XB1AkNEspQU.twitter

For context....when Trump took office the United States had been directly engaged in Afghanistan combat operations for Sixteen Years.

Dubya and Obama each. had eight years to figure out a strategy to get our troops out of there and failed.

Perhaps Trump is not willing to risk another endless war like that?

Our very senior military leadership cannot brag too loud about their successful strategies I would suggest.

flensr

22nd Dec 2018, 02:29

Setting policy is Trump's job. Providing information to the President and then executing policy is Mattis' job. If Mattis can't do his job, then good decision for him to admit it and quit.

I personally suspect that Mattis got used to making decisions and pitched a fit when Trump went a different direction. I think it's past time we got out of Syria and let Russia pick up the ball and run with it for a while. We have friends in the region (Jordan), pseudo "allies" (Turkey) that have been playing us for fools, and we broke Iraq pretty badly so we ought to help them out a bit. But our policy of interfering in Syria to encourage regime change is an Obama/Hillary/Kerry disaster of an idea and it's time to quit that nonsense.

A_Van

22nd Dec 2018, 04:14

Look at the map, e.g. the following one
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/interactive/2015/05/syria-country-divided-150529144229467.html

Even this anti-syrian source admits that the major part is controlled by the government. Putting the kurds aside, the question arises: where are so-called "coaltion supported" "democractic" forces? ..... "Vanished in the haze".....
A small area around Al-Tanf is just a safety zone around the US base (to be shut down according to Trump). The Idlib zone (where re-named Al-Qaeda and An-Nusra terrorists reside) was agreed to be under the turkish resposibility (to avoid gov. forces offensive). And Turkey now has a difficult task to demilitarize it.
So, after the kurds were "sold out" and talks between the Syrian government and "moderate" opposition are on the way (a so-called "Astana process", out of any US control), pulling out of the area seems a logical solution.

ericsson16

22nd Dec 2018, 09:33

Just for giggles....I went back to the first pages of this thread and began to read the posts.

What stood out was along about post 25-40 or so....where the question was asked..."why is the UK getting into this....why should we be involved in something that will drag out forever....etc...(or words to that effect).

Someone even asked why the UK should be the World's Policeman.

So here we are and as Trump begins to withdraw American Troops he is seen as being wrong.

Anyone care to explain how we have gone from being against any involvement to being against getting un-involved?

A take on all this that is a bit different than the Politico article.

Trump's Syria Withdrawal Policy Is Correct, But Communicated Horribly - The Federalist (http://thefederalist.com/2018/12/21/trumps-syria-withdrawal-policy-is-correct-but-communicated-horribly/?fbclid=IwAR19M4qjuoTpiVxD_4myw_oUPA0F4ZABRtUBuRqDmw-8vnduNy_4ogt7M9k#.XB1AkNEspQU.twitter)

For context....when Trump took office the United States had been directly engaged in Afghanistan combat operations for Sixteen Years.

Dubya and Obama each. had eight years to figure out a strategy to get our troops out of there and failed.

Perhaps Trump is not willing to risk another endless war like that?

Our very senior military leadership cannot brag too loud about their successful strategies I would suggest.
In the Donald's case "A fish starts to stink at the head "

Just This Once...

22nd Dec 2018, 10:40

So here we are and as Trump begins to withdraw American Troops he is seen as being wrong.

Anyone care to explain how we have gone from being against any involvement to being against getting un-involved?

The point that your SecDef understood is that a rapid and unilateral action damages alliances and indeed any future alliances. How we got here is of little importance now - we are where we are. Unfortunately for the US population the pressing and cajoling of allies and friends to join this action before buggering-off without even a phone-call to international partners has undermined the credibility and standing of the US. Treaties clearly mean nothing, international organisations mean nothing, security pacts mean nothing and ad-hoc coalitions mean nothing. Nothing good will come of this.

SASless

22nd Dec 2018, 11:22

So you are saying that this one decision to reduce our troop presence in one very small piece of Syria is going to equate to the downfall of the Roman Empire in essence.....is that correct?

NATO will disband, all the Treaties the US is involved with shall be dissolved, the UK will no longer buy American aircraft or spare parts, joint exercises are over....really?

I would suggest you are far more bothered by this than the folks steering the ship are.....as they know how the relationship thing works.

You are still going to buy American aircraft because you cannot build your own.

You will have to have US support and have to train to fulfill your role in those very treaties and agreements that exist as it is necessary for your own interests.

Let's accept that getting involved in a Civil War not your own is a very bad decision.

Staying out of it is the best idea.....and getting out as quickly as possible should you get involved is the better plan.

Toadstool

22nd Dec 2018, 16:51

etudiant

22nd Dec 2018, 17:38

So what you're saying is that this is a tactical masterstroke and that The President and Erdogan are right, whereas Mattis and McChrystal are wrong.

Seems more damage control than master stroke, but absent any plausible way to a better outcome, it is sensible to cut the losses.

SASless

22nd Dec 2018, 18:39

Back in March of this year....President Trump made a public statement that his decision to reduce the American Troop strength in Syria was coming....but did not give any specific time frame.

It was reported by National Media at that time.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/two-coalition-personnel-killed-in-syria-as-trump-signals-possible-us-withdrawal/2018/03/30/4c589d54-33fb-11e8-9759-56e51591e250_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8607511d325b (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/two-coalition-personnel-killed-in-syria-as-trump-signals-possible-us-withdrawal/2018/03/30/4c589d54-33fb-11e8-9759-56e51591e250_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8607511d325b )

Also....what gets missed in all this angst over his decision to remove 2000 troops from Syria....is there are 5000 US Troops in Iraq adjacent to Syria who conduct Ops inside Syria and support Coalition Ops inside Syria.

More information about the US-Turkish agreement that led to President Trump's announcement to withdraw US Troops from Syria.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/turkey-backed-syrian-fighters-prepare-to-replace-u-s-forces-1.4958234

You reckon some or all of the 2000 will wind up in Iraq as part of this "withdrawal" of forces?

GlobalNav

24th Dec 2018, 15:33

With no one with gravitas and integrity remaining in the cabinet, i.e., no adult standing in the room, let alone an intellectual national security expert, who is no stranger to the fox hole and front line of battle, who can call a spade a spade (and knows what a spade is), who truly understands the likes of Putin, Erdogan, etc. and has no “hidden” ties or obligations to the same, who understands the values of true international friends and allies, our poor fighting men and women, let alone the entire country, are now in greater danger than ever.

Anyone who has watched Boeing over the last two decades, since the merger with McDonald Douglas, the post-777 era, can anticipate the impact of that having a fox running the hen house will have on defense acquisitions, particularly for the Air Force.

SASless

24th Dec 2018, 15:59

Rather simplistic and naive view of things isn't it?

Two years ago the President stated a desire to end American Military presence in all of these places and tasked the DOD and State Department to come up with effective plans to do so.

Perhaps all those adults and intellectuals you pinned your hopes on were not as capable as you thought and when the Boss saw there being either an unwillingness or inability to carry out his Strategic Policy Goals....he brought heat on those tasked to do so.

Those Intellectuals and Adults had Sixteen Years to figure it out for Afghanistan and here we are two more years later and we are still there.

Let's look back to how we got into these situations to begin with and suppose we take an unbiased objective view of that and lay responsibility where it belongs.

Syria was a French controlled area before it gained its short lived independence before it fell under Russian influence during the Cold War. Then the Obama/Clinton team went for Regime change and began to arm the insurrection groups which led to a rather long drawn out Civil War with Iran Turkey, the Iraqi's, French, Russians, Saudi's, Americans, and Brits getting involved.

Those policies by Obama/Clinton led to the rise of ISIS which Obama famously called the "Junior Varsity" as you might remember.

About the same time the Obama/Clinton Team saw to the over throw of the Libyan Leader and graciously "led from the rear" in the process.

That followed on their great success in the disaster in Egypt when they saw to their desired goal of regime change there.

Now tell me about the absence of Adults and Intellectuals in the previous administration will you?

You might add a short dissertation on the Obama administration re-ordering of the US Military senior leadership......what was it....over 200 very senior Leaders sent packing to ensure handpicked favorites rose to the upper levels of his Administration?

This is a far more extensive, complex, and difficult situation than General Mattis getting in a huff over a single President's decision to pull Two Thousand Troops out of Syria while leaving Five Thousand in Iraq conducting joint operations in Syria.

Lyneham Lad

21st Jan 2019, 11:10

As reported by The Guardian.

Damascus rocked by explosions on second night of attacks, reportedly killing 11 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/21/israeli-military-strikes-iranian-targets-inside-syria?CMP=share_btn_link)

Asturias56

21st Jan 2019, 13:50

"Those policies by Obama/Clinton led to the rise of ISIS "

and there was me thinking that Dubbya invading the whole of the Middle East was to blame.....

SASless

21st Jan 2019, 19:55

Blaming Dubya to defend Obama/Clinton won't fly.

Dubya rightly gets the blame for Iraq but Obama/Clinton justly deserve the blame for Libya, Egypt, Palestine, and Syria as all that happened on under their tenures.

ericsson16

22nd Jan 2019, 09:07

https://www.haaretz.com/breaking/12-iranian-soldiers-killed-in-israeli-strike-on-syria-watchdog-says-1.6866755?fbclid=IwAR0adqnnv2t4C7XLGo340Xt0eHmrTyS93jPlHEhJh _dL1_qpWbZjKDX_CVQ

ORAC

23rd Jan 2019, 06:49

https://www.rt.com/news/449463-syria-threatens-israel-airport/Syria threatens to ‘strike Tel Aviv airport’ unless UNSC acts against Israel’s impunityDamascus has threatened to exercise its legitimate right for self-defense against Israeli aggression and target Tel Aviv airport in a mirror response, unless the Security Council puts an end to IDF intrusions into Syrian airspace.Apparently fed up with years of Israeli impunity in the Syrian skies and regular strikes carried out in the vicinity of Damascus International Airport, Syria has threatened to retaliate in explicit terms.

“Isn’t time now for the UN Security Council to stop the Israeli repeated aggressions on the Syrian Arab Republic territories?” Syria’s permanent representative to the UN, Dr. Bashar al-Jaafari wondered (https://www.sana.sy/?p=882592) Tuesday. “Or is it required to draw the attention of the war-makers in this Council by exercising our legitimate right to defend ourself and respond to the Israeli aggression on Damascus International Civil Airport in the same way on Tel Aviv Airport?”.........

Placing little faith into Western intentions to bring long-awaited peace to the country, the diplomat noted that Syria plans to restore full sovereignty over its lost territories, including the Golan Heights, which Israel continues to occupy. “The restoration sovereignty of the occupied Syrian Golan is a permanent right of Syria that [is] not subject to negotiations,” Jafari stressed.......

jolihokistix

23rd Jan 2019, 07:22

If Israel is targeting Iranian(Hezbollah) weapons and bases inside Syria, 'in the vicinity of' Damascus International Airport, then why does Jafari make no mention of Iran, and why does he threaten to hit Tel Aviv Airport itself, and not 'the vicinity'?

A_Van

14th Feb 2019, 17:03

A BBC journalist finally confirmed an obvious fact that chem. attacks were staged by white helmets and their sponsors

https://news.alayham.com/content/stunning-evidence-bbc-journalist-exposing-white-helmets-staging-chemical-attacks-douma

Note that his posts and twitter was quickly cleaned and he himself was pressed. Impartiality rules....

One Outsider

14th Feb 2019, 17:17

He confirmed nothing of the sort. If he "confirmed" anything it was that the two dead children had not died while hugging each other, but was placed in that position after they had died.

Lonewolf_50

14th Feb 2019, 18:58

The truth is the first casualty in war. Information and its flow is a weapon.
There is nothing new under the sun.

Lonewolf_50

10th Mar 2019, 21:07

Abraham, is it your position that it was 'cock up, not conspiracy' and if so, what are you talking about?
What post from what page are you responding to?

ORAC

15th Mar 2019, 08:27

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/alarm-in-israel-as-iran-plans-takeover-of-key-latakia-port-7zt0jvcvt

Tehran eyes vital Syrian port of Latakia as gateway to Med

Iran is preparing to take control of Syria’s main commercial port, advancing its plans to secure a trade route from Tehran to the Mediterranean and establishing a significant foothold on Israel’s doorstep.

Talks began last month to transfer the container port at Latakia, 150 miles northwest of Damascus, to Iranian management from October 1, when its lease expires, according to The Syria Report, which tracks growing Iranian and Russian commercial influence in the war-ravaged country. That would give Tehran unhindered access to the facility, which has 23 warehouses and was handling three million tonnes of cargo a year before the conflict. The port would be the Mediterranean link on an emerging trading route through the so-called Shia Muslim crescent from Iran through Iraq — where Tehran already exerts huge economic influence — and Syria.

For Israel the move could present a new security headache. Iran already wields huge military influence around Damascus, where its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) and proxy militias such as the Lebanese group Hezbollah are operational.

The Israeli air force has launched waves of strikes on warehouses close to Damascus airport to prevent Iran bringing weapons and components into the country by air. That has pushed Tehran to repeatedly request access to Syria’s ports; something that has until now been overruled by Russia, President Assad’s other big international backer and the dominant force in the coastal area around Latakia. Russia is understood to have given tacit approval last summer for Israel to strike Iranian positions around Damascus.

Iranian companies linked to the IRGC have started shipping goods through the port, suggesting that Tehran might use it as an alternative route to bring weapons into the country. That could trigger new Israeli airstrikes and exacerbate creeping tensions between Russia and Iran as they vie for influence in post-war Syria.

“Russia has no desire to see Iran close. Even though both have fought for Assad, there are differences and competitions between them,” said retired Brigadier-General Michael Herzog, former chief of staff to the Israeli minister of defence. “In the past, the Iranians have deployed close to the Russians thinking it would deter Israeli attacks. But the Russians understand why Israel is taking action against Iran, and they accept it in most cases.”

Yossi Mansharof, an expert in Iran and Shia militias at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, believes Moscow is likely to allow Israel to launch strikes on Iranian targets around Latakia if it uses the port to ship weapons. “There are always talks between Israel and Moscow, there is an open line,” he said. “I am sure that there are talks going on already to find a solution to this. So long as it serves Russian interests, they will give Israel the green light again.”........

ORAC

22nd May 2019, 06:13

Washington The US has said that it suspects Syrian government forces of a chemical attack during an offensive in Idlib, the northwestern region dominated by jihadists, on Sunday.

A State Department spokeswoman said: “We continue to see signs the Assad regime may be renewing its use of chemical weapons, including an alleged chlorine attack . . . we are still gathering information but repeat our warning that if the regime uses chemical weapons [we] and our allies will respond quickly and appropriately.”

America bombed Syria over President Assad’s use of chemical weapons in April 2017 and April 2018. (Reuters)

DroneDog

24th May 2019, 09:59

racedo

24th May 2019, 12:19

Just how trustworthy are these reports, the last OPCW report seems to have a few issues, with the truth.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/douma-syria-opcw-chemical-weapons-chlorine-gas-video-conspiracy-theory-russia-a8927116.html

Guess John Bolton reminded OPCW's head again that he knew where their kids lived.

https://www.businessinsider.com/john-bolton-threatened-family-of-brazilian-diplomat-iraq-war-2002-2018-3?r=US&IR=T

ORAC

24th May 2019, 15:07

Usual fellow travellers trying to throw doubt on the OPCW findings on Syria - in the same wY the do concerning Salisbury.

racedo

25th May 2019, 09:48

Usual fellow travellers trying to throw doubt on the OPCW findings on Syria - in the same wY the do concerning Salisbury.

Strange that you refuse to accept Internal OPCW details internally. Hell even the US claim of latest Chemical Weapons attack isn't even been supported by MI6 funded White Helmets.

Already proven how US has intimidated OPCW in the past, how did the WMD hunt go in Iraq ?

torvalds

25th May 2019, 14:18

Strange that you refuse to accept Internal OPCW details internally. Hell even the US claim of latest Chemical Weapons attack isn't even been supported by MI6 funded White Helmets.

Already proven how US has intimidated OPCW in the past, how did the WMD hunt go in Iraq ?

Of course many will refuse to accept anything, but whatever they've already considered as "the truth". Just imagine, that would be the acknowledgement of our own failure. That ain't gonna happen.

I think "Cognitive Dissonance" is the term.

After you start to question the official narratives, just buckle your seatbelt Dorothy, 'case Kansas is going bye-bye!

ORAC

7th Oct 2019, 07:26

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/07/us-to-let-turkish-forces-move-into-syria-abandoning-kurdish-alliesUS to let Turkish forces move into Syria, abandoning Kurdish alliesWhite House reveals sudden shift in policy, which follows conversation between Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

The White House has given the green light to a Turkish offensive into northern Syria, moving US forces out of the area in an abrupt foreign policy change that will in effect abandon Washington’s long-time allies, the Kurds (https://www.theguardian.com/world/kurds).

Kurdish forces have spearheaded the campaign against Isis in the region, but the policy swerve, following a phone conversation between Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (https://www.theguardian.com/world/recep-tayyip-erdogan) on Sunday, means Turkey would take custody of captured Isis fighters, the White House said. It represents the latest in a series of erratic moves by Trump (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/oct/06/trump-impeachment-inquiry-threat-grows), fighting impeachment at home, apparently taken without consultation with, or knowledge of, US diplomats dealing with Syria.

Ruben Gallego, an Iraq war veteran and Democratic congressman from Arizona, said on Twitter: “Allowing Turkey (https://www.theguardian.com/world/turkey) to move into northern Syria is one of the most destabilizing moves we can do in the Middle East. The Kurds will never trust America again. They will look for new alliances or independence to protect themselves.”......

Two weeks ago, at the UN general assembly, the US special envoy for the global coalition to defeat Isis, Jim Jeffrey, stressed that the US had an agreement with Turkey on a safe zone, in recognition of Ankara’s security concerns, that obviated the need for an Turkish incursion.

“We listen to the Turks’ concerns. We try to respond to them when we can,” Jeffrey said. “And we have made it clear to Turkey at every level that any unilateral operation is not going to lead to an improvement in anyone’s security – not Turkey’s, not the people in the north-east, not the people around the world who feel threatened by Daesh [Isis], which is the basic purpose for our US military being in the north-east in the first place.”

ORAC

7th Oct 2019, 09:04

The USA at least gave asylum to the Montagnards when they pulled out of Vietnam, I wonder how many Kurds will be given the same offer.

Whenurhappy

7th Oct 2019, 12:13

The Kurds operating in NE Syria are opportunists of the highest order. They displaced most of the Syrian Arab population (in 2010 Kurds made up 7% of the population - now it is +70%) and have been actively supporting their sister terrorist organisation - the PKK - in south eastern Turkey. They have actively courting the brutal al-Assad regime and been butt-snorkling the Russians.

Turkey has very real security concerns along their southern border - which the US (principally CENTCOM) have, at best, paid lip service to. Turkey's greatest fear has been the establishment of a contiguous Kurdish Canton from NW Iran, across northern Iraq and then along Turkey's border with Syria - and ultimately, to the Mediterranean. This would have established "Kurdistan' as a de facto state. The only thing that would unite Iran, Iran and Turkey in any sense is their implacable opposition to a Kurdish state. KRG was about the limit in Northern Iraq, but their referendum two years ago out paid to their uppity behaviour.

Of course, it's not the first time the US have abandoned the Kurds in the region. The Treaty of Sevres 1919 proposed the establishment of a Kurdistan under a US Mandate. Post war Isolationism (like now) killed off that bright idea.

Now, how are the US going to recover the thousands of tons of weapons they issued the YPG* over the last four years - as they promised Turkey they would do?

* short for Yanks Provide Guns.

Here's an a recent article in the independent Al Monitor about the issue of disarming the YPG. Metin Gurcan (retired Turkish SF Colonel) can be a bit sensationalist on occasions but this is a balanced article.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2019/10/turkey-united-states-syria-will-washington-disarm-ypg.html

racedo

7th Oct 2019, 19:41

Finally. What was the point of the US in Syria ?

The work against IS/Al Qaeda and their assorted friends was done by Syrian army. The Pentagon's own stats of aircraft on missions showed they did sweet bugger all as the US was worried about civilian casualties. Strange Mosul is still destroyed and there was no concern there.

Obama and his deep state friends wanted a war to keep their friends happy. The death toll in lives means nothing as others wanted it to happen and bankrolling it.

The don't recover Idlib as the SFA / Al Qaeda etc etc have their base their has done little for safety over the last 5 years. Let the Syrians with their allies recover their country, pretty clear the overwhelming majority of the population still support Assad.

Saudi's now realise that nobody cares about them and they have a military that is getting its butt kicked in Yemen from a population they trying to starve into submission. The $200 billion they have spent is gone with their enemies now more powerful than before. Saudi's now realising, talk to Iran, open up or face extinction.

It is easy to see why the Intelligence agencies hate Trump. He refuses to bow down and let American blood be spilt so some faceless "Intelligence officer" and their arms dealers friends make billions while same people extoll freedom and democracy, neither of which they believe.

Trump is cleaning up Obama's / HRC mess so expect him to be dammed for it.

ORAC

7th Oct 2019, 20:39

https://twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1181268312472334336?s=21

weemonkey

7th Oct 2019, 20:44

Whenurhappy

7th Oct 2019, 20:53

safetypee

7th Oct 2019, 21:36

NutLoose

7th Oct 2019, 22:37

Says it all

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/politics/exclusive-official-who-heard-call-says-trump-got-rolled-by-turkey-and-has-no-spine/ar-AAIqE8q

racedo

7th Oct 2019, 23:52

A lengthy, comprehensive, balanced view from a US author ranging many interwoven issues throughout the Middle East.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2019-10-02/unwanted-wars

“… some Gulf states - the UAE chief among them - have taken tentative steps to reach out to Iran in an effort to reduce tensions. They saw the growing risks of the regional crisis spinning out of control and recognized its potential costs. Washington should, too, before it is too late.” 2 Oct 2019.

Believing US is willing to have US Blood staining sands in the Gulf made GCC big men. Now they realising not an ounce of US Blood is going to get spilled so either start talking or fighting. Course they could start fighting and kill 10,000 Iranian military, Iran could do the same numbers on them but Iran has the population numbers, the others do not plus Iranian people have lived with sanctions and other stuff for 40 years, they are used to hardship, not so Gulf countries.

Dubai / Qatar are one drone attack away from destruction of tourism industry plus if their expats start exiting they cease to function.

GCC can look to Russia / China but they not going to play ball.

racedo

7th Oct 2019, 23:57

Says it all

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/politics/exclusive-official-who-heard-call-says-trump-got-rolled-by-turkey-and-has-no-spine/ar-AAIqE8q

No great surprise that White House wants to cull numbers from NSC, they have been leaking and openly supported Mad Hatter Bolton in his attempts to forment war.

What is going on in US is an attempted Coup, point is that not all of those seemingly against Trump are in favour of it because they understand that it will tear US apart. 2020 is going to define US this century.

racedo

7th Oct 2019, 23:59

Hell I AGREE with racedo.
Is it any wonder the lengths that the US equivalent of our establishment is going to to try and eliminate Trump before the next elections?
Because if he is still around [I hope he is] then he will walk the election by doing something unheard of for modern politicians-keeping his promises.

Trump is not a politician and could unpick the swamp which would be good for the US and everybody else.

Good Vibs

8th Oct 2019, 22:43

Regarding cleaning the Swamp....looks like so far he has only exchanged the alligators for crocodiles.

racedo

8th Oct 2019, 23:02

Regarding cleaning the Swamp....looks like so far he has only exchanged the alligators for crocodiles.

Maybe / Maybe not.

What he has done is identify the way US Establishment in Washington (and elsewhere) is allied with Media / Tech / Intelligence agendas to pursue their agenda at the expense of the American people. It is funny when you see the people who are always out challenging the establishment co opting themselves quickly to the establishment because they believe the media. They will ultimately win because they have the tentacles everywhere BUT they are forgetting the world is moving on while Washington burns.

The resemblance to the ultimate destruction of the Roman empire shows that all empires fail from within.

NutLoose

9th Oct 2019, 01:29

But who would ever put their trust in a combined operation again such as the Kurds have done, to know that the US may at any moment throw you under the bus?
it's all well and good orchestrating a regime change and backing it with support in a region, but to then effectively sever it like this means no group will give you the time of day.
I just hope ISIS does not re-emerge to bite us all in the ass, because I doubt the Kurds will be all that favourable to the States again if it all goes pear shaped.

ORAC

9th Oct 2019, 08:38

https://twitter.com/ignatiuspost/status/1181724204233904128?s=21

.........I'm also told that Turkish attack appears coordinated with the Russians. Russian-backed forces are mobilizing to invade the Kurdish area from the south — towards Tabqa and other spots. Meanwhile, ISIS is mobilizing sleeper cells in Raqqa and attacks have taken place tonight.

jolihokistix

9th Oct 2019, 09:11

15,000 IS fighters to be released from prison camps there as their Kurdish fighter guards rush off to the battle lines...?

racedo

9th Oct 2019, 09:26

racedo

9th Oct 2019, 09:30

15,000 IS fighters to be released from prison camps there as their Kurdish fighter guards rush off to the battle lines...?

where are they going to go ?

Saudi's and Qatari's are out, to the east is Iraq who have scores to settle, to the is SAA who will not be taking any prisoners or there are the Kurds or Turks.

Armed invaders supported by the West and GCC, few will return home and nobody will care.

Mil-26Man

9th Oct 2019, 09:35

where are they going to go ?

Saudi's and Qatari's are out, to the east is Iraq who have scores to settle, to the is SAA who will not be taking any prisoners or there are the Kurds or Turks.

Armed invaders supported by the West and GCC, few will return home and nobody will care.

Oh do knock it off, racedo. ISIS was/is not supported by the West, by the GCC, by Israel or by anyone else you care to mention (though I note you don't ever mention Russia, curious that).

ORAC

10th Oct 2019, 06:32

Guantanamo?

Politico:

“two British militants believed to be part of an Islamic State group that beheaded hostages and was known as ‘The Beatles’ have been moved out of a detention center in Syria and are in American custody,” AP reported.

Trump confirmed that via Twitter, writing: “In case the Kurds or Turkey lose control, the United States has already taken the 2 ISIS militants tied to beheadings in Syria, known as the Beetles [sic], out of that country and into a secure location controlled by the U.S. They are the worst of the worst!”

NutLoose

11th Oct 2019, 13:30

Says it all really

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/turkeys-syria-invasion-member-of-us-special-forces-says-i-am-ashamed-for-the-first-time-in-my-career/ar-AAIzvzr

tdracer

12th Oct 2019, 02:32

Says it all really

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/turkeys-syria-invasion-member-of-us-special-forces-says-i-am-ashamed-for-the-first-time-in-my-career/ar-AAIzvzr

NutLoose, you should know that, outside of the extreme left, MSN has almost zero credibility. They hate Trump with a passion and have cried wolf so many times about so many things that nobody pays much attention to them anymore (and their ratings show that).

Asturias56

12th Oct 2019, 17:37

tdracer

I think you're definition of "extreme left" is possibly not quite the same as most poster here................

West Coast

12th Oct 2019, 22:09

tdracer

I think you're definition of "extreme left" is possibly not quite the same as most poster here................

You've researched then?

golder

13th Oct 2019, 03:06

I find it odd that people watch fox news opinion shows, as their evenings entertainment.
I'd like Trump to get a second term. I don't think all Americans have learnt their lesson yet.

Lonewolf_50

13th Oct 2019, 18:19

I find it odd that people watch fox news opinion shows, as their evenings entertainment.
I'd like Trump to get a second term. I don't think all Americans have learnt their lesson yet. Under the theory that in a representative democracy/republic, wherein there is popular suffrage, the people get the government that they deserve ... well, that would be fitting.
Your last sentence got a wry grin out of me.

NutLoose

14th Oct 2019, 07:13

jolihokistix

14th Oct 2019, 08:36

Nice proxy war for them? The Russians get to try out their weaponry against Turkish equipment?
Surely though the Syrian army will hold back and watch the Kurds getting cut down to size for a while as the Turks using precision weapons take out their ammunition and weapons dumps.

etudiant

14th Oct 2019, 11:44

So the Kurds have joined forces with the Syrian army to repel the Turks.
So you now have Russia supporting one side while actively seeking to support the other, how does that work?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50036901

Seems a decent way to reintegrate the Kurds into the Syrian polity, unite against a common enemy..
Unlike Turkey, Syria has not tried to crush their Kurdish minority, so given no other choice, the Kurds will opt for Syria.
If there was any US national interest in Syria, it is not easily discernible, so Trump should be applauded for cutting the loss.

Just a spotter

14th Oct 2019, 20:22

How do you extracate your nukes from an ally who's no longer quite on your side?

An estimated 50 nuclear bombs stored at a US airbase in Turkey have become potential bargaining chips in the tense relationship between Washington and Ankara in the wake of the Turkish offensive into Syria.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/14/us-bombs-at-turkish-airbase-complicate-rift-over-syria-invasion

JAS

etudiant

14th Oct 2019, 20:28

How do you extracate your nukes from an ally who's no longer quite on your side?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/14/us-bombs-at-turkish-airbase-complicate-rift-over-syria-invasion

JAS
Is there any evidence these bombs are still in their bunkers?
I'd think no sensible leader would have left them there after kicking Turkey out of the F-35 program.

ORAC

15th Oct 2019, 05:04

https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Six-years-of-work-destroyed-in-six-days-The-collapse-of-eastern-Syria-604593SIX YEARS OF WORK DESTROYED IN SIX DAYS: THE COLLAPSE OF EASTERN SYRIA

jolihokistix

15th Oct 2019, 09:43

Jpost would not give me time to read the article before they asked me twice to subscribe. I am backing out. It seems to be a rehash of recent events anyway, surely not worthy of such large capital letters, ORAC!

Easy Street

15th Oct 2019, 13:01

What was the *realistic* end state that anyone had in mind for the Syrian Kurds? Those hoping for a new state to be carved out of NE Syria were always going to be disappointed given that such an outcome would have been directly against the interests of the three neighbouring states, plus the Iranians, plus all other states worried about secessionist movements. A small landlocked state surrounded by unfriendly neighbours would have needed perpetual outside assistance to remain independent: not an attractive proposition to the US or anyone else. And that’s assuming the Russians and Chinese agreed to new borders being drawn as a result of US assistance: highly unlikely, to put it mildly.

The very most the Kurds should have been aiming for was an autonomous region with Syrian regime border protection. By waiting until a crisis to make their approach to Assad, they’ve lost practically all the leverage they should have had in negotiating a settlement. So if the Americans are to be criticised, IMHO it’s for giving the Kurds the impression that any other end state was ever on the table.

The Kurds were certainly screwed over in the creation of the modern Middle East, but the ‘winners’ of that imperial line-drawing affair have little reason to give up the century-old status quo, least of all to assuage Western remorse.