Gatwick-3

[Apron Artist]

Not looking good again and it's only Thursday.

Spoiler

 

 



[JW95]

(Rumoured) airlines in the pipeline

LGW has had a good year so far in attracting new airlines to the airport (e.g. Air Mauritius; Saudia; Air India) in addition to some pre-Covid resumptions (e.g. Air China; China Eastern). Can we expect to see any more launch LGW this year and going into 2024?

[Sotonsean]

Originally Posted by JW95

LGW has had a good year so far in attracting new airlines to the airport (e.g. Air Mauritius; Saudia; Air India) in addition to some pre-Covid resumptions (e.g. Air China; China Eastern). Can we expect to see any more launch LGW this year and going into 2024?

Air Tanzania are due to receive their third Boeing 788 in February 2024. Air Tanzania have previously stated that they intend on resuming London Gatwick once they receive their third airframe.

Air Tanzania previously held slots at London Gatwick prior to the covid pandemic. The airline had reportedly lost those slots and were hopeful in obtaining new ones for 2024.

Air Tanzania have been quoted in several travel and aviation media platforms over the last few months in regards to a resumption of a London service. If all goes to plan then hopefully Air Tanzania will soon announce the resumption of service between Dar Es Salaam and London Gatwick.

So on that regards I think we can assume that Air Tanzania could well be a possible contender for long haul at LGW.

Air Zimbabwe could well be another airline. The Zimbabwe authorities have recently stated that one of their priorities is to resume a link between Harare and London Gatwick.

Air Senegal announced a Dakar to London Stansted service prior to the covid pandemic. This service never materialised for obvious reasons. Air Senegal have just this week changed an order for two A220s to two A321Ns. Air Senegal have also stated that they intend on opening new routes from Dakar to Europe.

Air Senegal could well be another possible contender to announce LGW service.

Then of course there is the new national airline for Ghana which is due to officialy start operations in October 2023.

Ghana Airways have three Boeing 789 on order and the airline has previously announced that London would be one of the airlines first international routes. Whether that's LGW or LHR, there is the possibility that Ghana Airways could be yet another possible contender to announce LGW service.

I'm trying to think of a fifth candidate but the only one I can think of is Iraqi Airways.

Iraqi Airways is currently in the process of receiving brand new aircraft such as the A223 and Boeing 737 Max. I'm not sure if the EU ban on Iraqi Airways still exists especially when the airline is receiving brand new aircraft.

If Iraqi Airways can't fly with their own aircraft I'm sure they could use an ACMI operator for the meantime just like they previously did when they last used LGW.

But mentioning Iraqi Airways as a possible fifth candidate is probably a long shot but would be a very welcome addition.

So on that account I've mentioned four or maybe five possible contenders for LGW in 2024.

Air Senegal...Dakar
Air Tanzania...Dar Es Salaam
Air Zimbabwe...Harare
Ghana Airways...Accra
Iraqi Airways...Baghdad

We also have those airlines that we are already aware of that have recently requested slots from ACL at LGW for 2023/2024. Some are airline resumptions and some would be brand new to LGW as in the case of TAAG. They include the following airlines.

Azerbaijan Airways...Baku
Ethiopian Airlines...Addis Ababa
Royal Jordanian Airways...Amman
TAAG Angola Airlines...Luanda

Quite a few possible candidate's for long haul at LGW for 2024. If all of them did announce LGW then surely that would probably supersed 2023 for long haul.

[Sotonsean]

Norse Atlantic have announced that LGW to BOS won't be operating for the IATA northern winter 2023/2024 season and will be a summer seasonal service instead.

I wonder where the spare capacity will go instead unless that was part of the airline's winter plans with the previously announced routes.

[JW95]

Originally Posted by Sotonsean

Air Tanzania are due to receive their third Boeing 788 in February 2024. Air Tanzania have previously stated that they intend on resuming London Gatwick once they receive their third airframe.

Air Tanzania previously held slots at London Gatwick prior to the covid pandemic. The airline had reportedly lost those slots and were hopeful in obtaining new ones for 2024.

Air Tanzania have been quoted in several travel and aviation media platforms over the last few months in regards to a resumption of a London service. If all goes to plan then hopefully Air Tanzania will soon announce the resumption of service between Dar Es Salaam and London Gatwick.

So on that regards I think we can assume that Air Tanzania could well be a possible contender for long haul at LGW.

Air Zimbabwe could well be another airline. The Zimbabwe authorities have recently stated that one of their priorities is to resume a link between Harare and London Gatwick.

Air Senegal announced a Dakar to London Stansted service prior to the covid pandemic. This service never materialised for obvious reasons. Air Senegal have just this week changed an order for two A220s to two A321Ns. Air Senegal have also stated that they intend on opening new routes from Dakar to Europe.

Air Senegal could well be another possible contender to announce LGW service.

Then of course there is the new national airline for Ghana which is due to officialy start operations in October 2023.

Ghana Airways have three Boeing 789 on order and the airline has previously announced that London would be one of the airlines first international routes. Whether that's LGW or LHR, there is the possibility that Ghana Airways could be yet another possible contender to announce LGW service.

I'm trying to think of a fifth candidate but the only one I can think of is Iraqi Airways.

Iraqi Airways is currently in the process of receiving brand new aircraft such as the A223 and Boeing 737 Max. I'm not sure if the EU ban on Iraqi Airways still exists especially when the airline is receiving brand new aircraft.

If Iraqi Airways can't fly with their own aircraft I'm sure they could use an ACMI operator for the meantime just like they previously did when they last used LGW.

But mentioning Iraqi Airways as a possible fifth candidate is probably a long shot but would be a very welcome addition.

So on that account I've mentioned four or maybe five possible contenders for LGW in 2024.

Air Senegal...Dakar
Air Tanzania...Dar Es Salaam
Air Zimbabwe...Harare
Ghana Airways...Accra
Iraqi Airways...Baghdad

We also have those airlines that we are already aware of that have recently requested slots from ACL at LGW for 2023/2024. Some are airline resumptions and some would be brand new to LGW as in the case of TAAG. They include the following airlines.

Azerbaijan Airways...Baku
Ethiopian Airlines...Addis Ababa
Royal Jordanian Airways...Amman
TAAG Angola Airlines...Luanda

Quite a few possible candidate's for long haul at LGW for 2024. If all of them did announce LGW then surely that would probably supersed 2023 for long haul.

Of those you mention, I can certainly see Ghana Airways and their 789s making an appearance at LGW soon, due to slot constraints and unavailability at LHR. Same also goes to Air Tanzania. Regarding Air Senegal, I'd expect MAG to be competing very hard to get this service launched at STN as was the original plan before Covid began, although they may well go for LGW depending on what GIP offer them

In terms of Asia and Asian airlines in general, could we see more come to LGW next year? One thing that has been flagged up consistently in the video interviews with the LGW commercial teams is that they are expecting a further increase of Chinese carriers and routes at Gatwick going forwards. Air China and China Eastern Airlines have already resumed LGW. China Airlines' days at LGW are sadly finished since they now have permanent slots at LHR. I'm wondering who could be next?

[True Blue]

I see BA is stating that the short haul fleet at LGW will increase from 18 this summer to 26 in S24. So a lot of new routes to come?

[pabely]

Originally Posted by True Blue

I see BA is stating that the short haul fleet at LGW will increase from 18 this summer to 26 in S24. So a lot of new routes to come?

So will that be a reduction of Iberia Express & Vueling and/or leased out slots to EZY?

[Sotonsean]

Originally Posted by JW95

Of those you mention, I can certainly see Ghana Airways and their 789s making an appearance at LGW soon, due to slot constraints and unavailability at LHR. Same also goes to Air Tanzania. Regarding Air Senegal, I'd expect MAG to be competing very hard to get this service launched at STN as was the original plan before Covid began, although they may well go for LGW depending on what GIP offer them

In terms of Asia and Asian airlines in general, could we see more come to LGW next year? One thing that has been flagged up consistently in the video interviews with the LGW commercial teams is that they are expecting a further increase of Chinese carriers and routes at Gatwick going forwards. Air China and China Eastern Airlines have already resumed LGW. China Airlines' days at LGW are sadly finished since they now have permanent slots at LHR. I'm wondering who could be next?

The only Chinese carrier I can think of was China Southern Airlines.

Before the pandemic China Southern Airlines had scheduled a Wuhan to London Gatwick service.

But China Southern Airlines are to recommence Wuhan to London Heathrow on the 25 August 2023.

I personally can't think of any potential future Chinese carriers at LGW.

TBH I would even be extremely surprised if Air China and China Eastern remained at LGW for the long term.

The recently launched (2020) full service long haul Taiwanese carrier STARLUX is a possible airline to look out for.

The airline has stated that they intend on serving Europe at some point in the future.

STARLUX has 18 A359 on order and have recently announced their first long haul destination from Taipei which will be Los Angeles.


​​​

[True Blue]

Bringing back slots from EZY I believe.

[vectisman]

Originally Posted by True Blue

Bringing back slots from EZY I believe.

Yes I believe that to be the case.

I have read elsewhere that easyjet may be removing up to 13 aircraft from Gatwick next Summer after difficulties this year.
82 based aircraft has proved a little problematic especially having two main departure waves am and pm.
I believe someone on the Southampton thread said 3 aircraft are going to the new Birmingham based and the others returned to lessors.
I know that Vueling have about 110 weekly slots leased from BA approximately 7 departures and 7 arrivals a day but their operation is stable and also within the IAG overall operation.
The easyjet lease from BA was as high as 220 to 230 slots a week (approximately 16 departures and 16 arrivals a day) These are the ones that will be returned over the next year or so.
As always happy to be corrected.

[pabely]

Originally Posted by vectisman

Yes I believe that to be the case.

I have read elsewhere that easyjet may be removing up to 13 aircraft from Gatwick next Summer after difficulties this year.
82 based aircraft has proved a little problematic especially having two main departure waves am and pm.
I believe someone on the Southampton thread said 3 aircraft are going to the new Birmingham based and the others returned to lessors.
I know that Vueling have about 110 weekly slots leased from BA approximately 7 departures and 7 arrivals a day but their operation is stable and also within the IAG overall operation.
The easyjet lease from BA was as high as 220 to 230 slots a week (approximately 16 departures and 16 arrivals a day) These are the ones that will be returned over the next year or so.
As always happy to be corrected.

They do have alot of new frames arriving early next year x10 320N & x1 321N, I know across whole group, but will help removing leased examples and reducing 319s. There are pain points across the whole operation and should make the S24 more stable.
Whether BA can scale up is another question or will they become the bad boy on canx at LGW next year?!

[JW95]

Originally Posted by Sotonsean

The only Chinese carrier I can think of was China Southern Airlines.

Before the pandemic China Southern Airlines had scheduled a Wuhan to London Gatwick service.

But China Southern Airlines are to recommence Wuhan to London Heathrow on the 25 August 2023.

I personally can't think of any potential future Chinese carriers at LGW.

TBH I would even be extremely surprised if Air China and China Eastern remained at LGW for the long term.

The recently launched (2020) full service long haul Taiwanese carrier STARLUX is a possible airline to look out for.

The airline has stated that they intend on serving Europe at some point in the future.

STARLUX has 18 A359 on order and have recently announced their first long haul destination from Taipei which will be Los Angeles.


​​​

I hope China Eastern and Air China do stick around at LGW- the airport has undoubtably come a long way since it took a battering in 2020-22 when it lost a large chunk of its long haul network and carriers. I also am hopeful that Cathay Pacific will be back at Gatwick in 2024, now that their London capacity is quickly ramping up to near pre-covid levels. I agree RE. China Southern though, unlikely we will see them at Gatwick.

[JW95]

Originally Posted by vectisman

Yes I believe that to be the case.

I have read elsewhere that easyjet may be removing up to 13 aircraft from Gatwick next Summer after difficulties this year.
82 based aircraft has proved a little problematic especially having two main departure waves am and pm.
I believe someone on the Southampton thread said 3 aircraft are going to the new Birmingham based and the others returned to lessors.
I know that Vueling have about 110 weekly slots leased from BA approximately 7 departures and 7 arrivals a day but their operation is stable and also within the IAG overall operation.
The easyjet lease from BA was as high as 220 to 230 slots a week (approximately 16 departures and 16 arrivals a day) These are the ones that will be returned over the next year or so.
As always happy to be corrected.

Wow, this is quite a reduction for EZY if this does come to fruition, considering they have always been focused on expanding at LGW which is by far their largest base. If they do cut back by 13 aircraft, is this likely to mean that they will no longer need to maintain their (small) operation to/from the South Terminal and just consolidate entirely in the North? (which is what they always wanted, this was a key driver behind the BA/VS/EZY shift in 2017).

[davidjohnson6]

If (and this is a big if) Easyjet cut 13 aircraft at LGW, I would be more concerned about a significant number of summer seasonal routes simply being cut and not returning at all for summer 2024.
Even without a fleet reduction, but based solely on fares, Gatwick-Calvi in particular seems like a strong candidate for the chop

[vectisman]

Originally Posted by davidjohnson6

If (and this is a big if) Easyjet cut 13 aircraft at LGW, I would be more concerned about a significant number of summer seasonal routes simply being cut and not returning at all for summer 2024.
Even without a fleet reduction, but based solely on fares, Gatwick-Calvi in particular seems like a strong candidate for the chop

If EasyJet do have fewer slots owing to slot lease returns in Summer 2024 then the number of flights will have to be reduced. A reduction does not necessarily mean a cut in the number of destinations served but rather a cut in frequencies to some destinations. Interestingly when EasyJet cancelled 1700 flights from Gatwick this July and August it was able to rebook 95% of passengers affected on existing flights and mostly on the same day. This does point to some overcapacity having been present before the cuts.

[vectisman]

I would also like to make it clear that I am not saying EasyJet will remove 13 aircraft from Gatwick for Summer 2024. I was just referring to what had been mentioned elsewhere. However I do believe there will some adjustment to their overall operation at Gatwick in light of their experience this summer and if slots on lease are returned. The morning slot allocation at LGW is already very tight and I can’t see any other current operators willing to give any of theirs up.

[JW95]

New airline!

Nice to see another new airline at LGW As per Aeroroutes, Ethiopian Airlines is to resume service to Gatwick from November this year, 3 times weekly with their A359!

[VickersVicount]

quite a lot of capacity to UK now on Ethiopian. Wonder if LGW route would impact on MAN service numbers which is also due for increase. Im guessing some overlap. Direct maybe preferable to double drop in Switzerland.

[True Blue]

Norse are to operate daily flights to 7 US cities next summer. So they have managed to pick up some more slots. I wonder if they will launch any new routes out of Lgw next summer?

[JW95]

Originally Posted by True Blue

Norse are to operate daily flights to 7 US cities next summer. So they have managed to pick up some more slots. I wonder if they will launch any new routes out of Lgw next summer?

I wouldn't be surprised to see them increase frequency on some of the existing routes that are currently only one daily or less. JFK, LAX and MIA come to mind.