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Old 11th May 2023, 14:59
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rubymurray - Is demand really outstripping supply for Jet2 services from MAN? Do you have data to support that assertion? And if it is the case (very nice problem to have), surely the first recourse would be to enquire with MAG about further expansion of the base at the airport? MAN is currently handling around 4 million fewer pax than in 2019 (based on comparative moving annual totals), and the airport PR suggests a notional capacity of some 40 million pax p.a., so they shouldn't be needing to turn away any expansion requests from Jet2 just yet. Unless you know differently?

I accept that there is an argument for a LPL base in it's own right - but the reason cited by BHX5DME was that Jet2's operation at MAN is under "pressure". I don't accept that argument at all. MAN is one of Jet2's most successful bases. The S23 ACL report indicates that they are adding an additional based unit at MAN this Summer, as well as introducing the first (of hopefully many) A321neo's. It is anticipated that three leased-in A330's will again operate from the MAN base in S23. I have no issue with people promoting the idea of a LPL base on its own merits - but don't cite "fake nooz" of Jet2 experiencing problems at MAN as justification. Perhaps BHX5DME could enlighten us re the nature of the "pressure" he alleges that Jet2 are under at MAN. From my perspective, I see a "well-oiled machine": Jet2's MAN base is a case study in how a good airline operation should be run. Their many front of house customer service staff go the extra mile to ensure that their customers enjoy their journeys in as stress-free a manner as possible; there is no sense of "pressure". Meanwhile, MAG has and continues to support Jet2's growth at the airport, accommodating an expanding based fleet and the ongoing introduction of larger types.

Whatever the case for LPL, I contend that "pressure" at MAN isn't it. I invite BHX5DME to specify what prompted him to allege that Jet2's MAN operation is under "pressure" to an extent which requires a new base at a competing location.
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Old 11th May 2023, 15:31
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Originally Posted by cavokblues
Problem with a base in PMI and ALI - wouldn't EU residency rules for staff make it a massive headache?
With all Jet2 services operating to UK airports, use of G- registered aircraft ought to be fine. Ground support staff would presumably be locally recruited, something the local authorities would welcome.

With regard to flight crew, I'm not sure whether temporary detachments to those bases using UK crews would be practical or not. Were the crew over there in 2019(?) permanently based?
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Old 11th May 2023, 15:32
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Originally Posted by OzzyOzBorn
rubymurray - Is demand really outstripping supply for Jet2 services from MAN? Do you have data to support that assertion? And if it is the case (very nice problem to have), surely the first recourse would be to enquire with MAG about further expansion of the base at the airport? MAN is currently handling around 4 million fewer pax than in 2019 (based on comparative moving annual totals), and the airport PR suggests a notional capacity of some 40 million pax p.a., so they shouldn't be needing to turn away any expansion requests from Jet2 just yet. Unless you know differently?
I asked our base management recently about the Liverpool base rumours and they confirmed that it was still being looked at as they are unable to expand in Manchester as much as they’d like to for various reasons (landing slots, ground handling etc)

Whether it actually happens or not, I have no idea. I’d say all bets are off with regards to routes and bases at the moment and we’ll find out anything new when the general public does. The big bosses have said they’d like to double the size of the operation in the next five years so there’s some very interesting times ahead…
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Old 11th May 2023, 15:55
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Originally Posted by rubymurray
I asked our base management recently about the Liverpool base rumours and they confirmed that it was still being looked at as they are unable to expand in Manchester as much as they’d like to for various reasons (landing slots, ground handling etc)

Whether it actually happens or not, I have no idea. I’d say all bets are off with regards to routes and bases at the moment and we’ll find out anything new when the general public does. The big bosses have said they’d like to double the size of the operation in the next five years so there’s some very interesting times ahead…
Latest officially is double in size by 2030 and no new bases for the next couple of years.

Of course things can change rapidly, but I’m skeptical as to whether base management would be privy to any strategic plans until such time that it is made public.

With the growth plans in the longer term I would be surprised if Liverpool wasn’t on their radar, but I would also be surprised if it was on their priority list at the moment as there is still a gaping hole in their Southern market that can be filled if sufficient slots and aircraft became available, not to mention slots at overseas airports - which is the issue at the moment not so much the bases.
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Old 11th May 2023, 16:15
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Originally Posted by rubymurray
I asked our base management recently about the Liverpool base rumours and they confirmed that it was still being looked at as they are unable to expand in Manchester as much as they’d like to for various reasons (landing slots, ground handling etc)

Whether it actually happens or not, I have no idea. I’d say all bets are off with regards to routes and bases at the moment and we’ll find out anything new when the general public does. The big bosses have said they’d like to double the size of the operation in the next five years so there’s some very interesting times ahead…
Exactly my point MAN is very successful but very little room to expand, so Liverpool would plug that gap for North West
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Old 11th May 2023, 16:38
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Originally Posted by BHX5DME
Exactly my point MAN is very successful but very little room to expand, so Liverpool would plug that gap for North West
The problem isn’t with MAN it’s with room at destinations. Opening new bases is expensive. Jet2 Liverpool has a ring to it but your argument is flawed, there are I believe other markets to expand into before Liverpool gets a look in. Of course I don’t know what they are planning but they have always been careful not to tread on their own toes too much, so Liverpool will probably happen at some point but do not see how it would be a priority.
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Old 11th May 2023, 16:40
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they are unable to expand in Manchester as much as they’d like to for various reasons (landing slots, ground handling etc)
Jet2's business model means that their fleet is used less intensively than those of other carriers in the UK short-haul leisure market. Therefore, it would be surprising if they could not secure sufficient viable slots to meet their needs at MAN given the scheduling flexibility they have. Also, MAN has recently stepped up to twin runway ops throughout most of the day for the Summer period, which expands slot availability. Meanwhile, the airport is currently handling around 500-550 movements daily, well short of numbers regularly accommodated afew years back. I'd expect some increase over these numbers into July through September, though it doesn't look like anything close to record demand will be on the cards.

There is a general shortage of ground handling staff. However, Jet2 do their own handling at MAN and are seen as a very good employer. They should be able to attract the numbers they need to vacant positions. Of course, this may come at the expense of workers moving from other handlers notorious for very poor pay and conditions. But from Jet2's perspective, that would be someone else's problem.

Finally, if MAG management really can't accommodate expansion from a core based-carrier such as Jet2, then they have serious questions to answer. Firstly, with passenger throughput running around 4 million ppa below 2019 numbers (and around 15 million short of the notional capacity which their PR claims), how come they're denying expansion requests when traffic remains seriously depressed compared with pre-covid years? Yes, we know that a number of stands are temporarily unavailable due to ongoing construction work, but not nearly enough to pin the airport back to throughput some 15 million passengers short of their claimed annual capacity. The true chokepoint they do have is T3 which MAG elected not to expand ahead of rising demand from Ryanair some years ago. But Jet2 don't use T3.
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Old 11th May 2023, 17:02
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Exactly my point MAN is very successful but very little room to expand
MAN cites its notional annual capacity as being 40 million pax per annum. They're currently doing in the region of 25-26 million per annum, well short of the record number seen as of September 2019 [29,510,599]. Expansion in due course will be very welcome, however, the airport is currently operating at a level well below its declared and historic capacity, both in terms of movements and passenger throughput. Any future infrastructure expansion would be incremental to that capacity figure currently declared.

So I ask you again, BHX5DME. Can you give us specific data to back up your claim that MAN is under "pressure" to the extent that it cannot accommodate further expansion by Jet2? (Though Jet2 is expanding at MAN anyway).

We know that staffing can be a problem for one-off ad-hoc charters, but based programmes are planned for and rostered months ahead of time. And model employer Jet2 never seems short of willing staff.
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Old 11th May 2023, 17:07
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It will be interesting to see if the lower utilisation currently employed by Jet2 will change as the new A321 NEOs arrive. They will be far more expensive to acquire than older 737 NGs although they do, of course, carry more passengers and have low seat/mile costs.
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Old 11th May 2023, 18:01
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Of course a lot of the 737NG were bought brand new from Boeing. I think what BHX5DME might be thinking under presure maybe the security problems from last year which have completely been sorted
and they have just announced 27 new shops and restaurants so that doesn`t sound like presure to me. There is a lot of expansion from other airlines i:e Gulf Air, Ethiopian, Hainan, Cathay ,Egyptair ,Saudi which seem to be growing a quick pace. I can see there are points of the day which are busy but not to the point that it is stretched and there also times where there is plenty of room.
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Old 11th May 2023, 18:41
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MAN cites its notional annual capacity as being 40 million pax per annum.
That's spread over the whole year, though. What about at peak times, overnight parking stands etc?

Have there not been recent discussions that T2 development means a reduction in the number of stands in the next few years?
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Old 11th May 2023, 18:41
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Using Jethros, I estimate around a third of the 737 fleet (including 733) were purchased new.
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Old 11th May 2023, 19:20
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
That's spread over the whole year, though. What about at peak times, overnight parking stands etc?

Have there not been recent discussions that T2 development means a reduction in the number of stands in the next few years?
And if any excess capacity vs 2019 is due to the likes of TCX or BE failing, then the capacity may not be in the correct terminal to suit Jet2 growth.
Don't forget that capacity can include runway, terminal (check in, security, baggage, airside space), gates and stands.
Off peak growth (after 1st wave) might be available, but seemingly doesn’t immediately fit with the current Jet2 model of based overnight machines and no non-based flying.
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Old 11th May 2023, 20:24
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The problem that other posters are referring to is stand availability. Yes, the terminals can accommodate more pax. Yes, Jet2 can recruit more ground staff. The bottleneck for further expansion is stands. We have just lost a handful of stands to make way for the new pier on T2, and there won’t be anymore available until after that pier is completed. In my mind, the possible new base at LPL makes perfect sense, as they can still expand the number of passengers from the North West. I’m sure a Gatwick base is on the management wish list, but I can’t see it happening anytime soon because of slot availability. We’ll see!
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Old 11th May 2023, 20:35
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There is more off stand parking than there used to be but don`t seem to have the lack of stands problem as much.
Many of the major world airports use remote parking and bussing
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Old 11th May 2023, 21:56
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Well I have flown with Jet 2 through Manchester and Leeds last summer. Manchester was on air stairs but noted other flights on bus and remote stands from same carrier.

LBA in August with flight arriving early and some late left to ax long queue on tarmac. Fine if annoying on summer day that it was, but to be frank would not use again purely because I would not want to be stood outside at LBA in any rain and wind both of which are extreme at that height and in winter totally unacceptable.

You can use remote stands in bad weather, they do at Frankfurt, but your stairs have roofs.

Cheers
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Old 11th May 2023, 22:50
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
That's spread over the whole year, though. What about at peak times, overnight parking stands etc?

Have there not been recent discussions that T2 development means a reduction in the number of stands in the next few years?
DOH ... Never thought of that!!! Only joking ... didn't think I needed to spell out the obvious to the PPRuNe readership. And the stats I quoted are spread over the whole year too. However, the point I did make concerning Jet2's ability to be more flexible due to lower aircraft utilisation than others does address the need for wiggle-room to obtain additional viable slots at busier times. Though, once again, don't forget that MAN's movements remain significantly down on numbers previously seen, even when dual runway ops were offered for far fewer hours per day than they are now.

On the matter of stands, construction work does mean that a number of stands are unavailable at any one time. Though this is nothing new - only the stands affected changes. And during the TP works, new stands have been introduced as well as removed. The ten stands numbered 901-919 are new build, for example. Also, many more stands are measured up for flexible use on a L/R basis - so the quantity of numbered stands is not the same figure as number of available parking spaces. Meanwhile, based fleet strength is down by about nine aircraft from the equivalent in 2018. Not exactly a capacity crunch situation.

In my mind, the possible new base at LPL makes perfect sense, as they can still expand the number of passengers from the North West.
No doubt LPL could put together a viable proposition to host a Jet2 base. But they must do so on their own merits, not on false claims that MAN cannot cope. Of course, I'm not suggesting that they are doing that ... though some on here seem keen to spread that false narrative on their behalf. It is they who I am calling out.
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Old 12th May 2023, 08:09
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Jet2 have now overtaken TUI as the UK's #1 Package Holiday Operator -
Jet2 know that's where now their core business is, and they do it rather well,
and IMHO,
with my tuppence on the money, then Liverpool LPL is an obvious choice for them to expand.
No Tour Operator competition there.

LGW would be a nonsense for all the reasons given above, and as for Overseas bases, why >?
We left the EU, and would Jet2 frankly go through the hassle of the labour and certification issues >? No.

Bournemouth >?
perhaps once, but now Ryanair are well embedding themselves there, plus TUI are adding a 2nd 737 at BOH for next summer.
IF Doncaster were to ever reopen, then perhaps if they were quick off the mark then Jet2 could make themselves rather at home there.


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Old 12th May 2023, 08:42
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Does Manchester have such a God given right to all the air services from the Northwest that the very suggestion that Liverpool might (with absolutely no evidence) welcome Jet2 to their ramp creates so much ire and angst? Anyone would think we were reading some kind of argument between a Liverpool FC and Manchester United fan!

LPL is an undeserved market for the package holiday industry, has been for decades. TUI, and Thomson before them show little interest as did Intasun and Airtours way back in history. There is an opportunity to be grabbed by one of the current 'big boys' if either believes there is a business case to do so, and whichever takes the opportunity will take business from their competitors. That is how business works.
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Old 12th May 2023, 09:05
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Originally Posted by ATNotts
Does Manchester have such a God given right to all the air services from the Northwest that the very suggestion that Liverpool might (with absolutely no evidence) welcome Jet2 to their ramp creates so much ire and angst? Anyone would think we were reading some kind of argument between a Liverpool FC and Manchester United fan!

LPL is an undeserved market for the package holiday industry, has been for decades. TUI, and Thomson before them show little interest as did Intasun and Airtours way back in history. There is an opportunity to be grabbed by one of the current 'big boys' if either believes there is a business case to do so, and whichever takes the opportunity will take business from their competitors. That is how business works.
With respect it’s nothing to do with fanboyism or which airport is best, it’s basing these predictions on how the business operates. Soon as there is a sniff of a rumour (of unknown origin) of a new base people come on saying how it’s going to be their local airport for reasons twisted to fit their narrative.

Truth is very few people will know where jet2 plan to go next, it’s kept quiet for good reason. However if you look at previous then it gives a good indication of how they plan to expand. There may be a curve ball, and it’s not at this moment possible to predict exactly what they’ll do, but when the CEO recently announced that there would be no new bases for a couple of years then there is no reason to doubt this until such a time that an announcement is made to the contrary.

Liverpool, whilst as good as any, does fly in the face of their careful growth strategy to not compete with themselves too much. I accept that there may be pressure on slots at MAN, I also accept that there is probably a market in Liverpool, but is there sufficient stand alone market to not impact themselves at this moment in time? They do intend on doubling in size in the next 7 years, to do so will inevitably include new bases, and I’m certain that that will include Liverpool - at least for consideration. But for the moment there is a slot issue with destination airports that requires flexibility in the schedule to adapt once slots become available.

So no Manchester does not have some god given right to anything, but it’s pure economics and commercial realities which dictates the situation, and that is Manchester is the airport of choice for most airlines when they want to serve the North West, and in many cases the North in general. Liverpool has struggled with the IT/Charter sector traditionally due to the very reason I have outlined, its proximity to Manchester.
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