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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 31st May 2020, 21:27
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Originally Posted by ericlday
''Under the current circumstances who in their right mind would want to go abroad from the UK ?''

I for one would be happy to come back here to Tenerife, where yesterdays figures were 2 new cases and Nil deaths, 14 days quarantine in my apartment and then feel safer than in the uk. Listening to friends that have made the journey to/from uk on that 'dreaded' plane was not as you describe but was quite orderly. but each to their own and I would have no hesitation in making the journey.
Looking forward again to arriving at the Cristiano Ronaldo Madeira International Airport, 24July,can't come soon enough,05/23 wonderful.
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Old 31st May 2020, 22:38
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The last two posters are quite free to make a personal risk assessment on the danger of travelling in a confined space with 180 other people to a place with little or no virus.

The governments of Tenerife and Madeira have to make an assessment of the risk to their communities of receiving planeloads of visitors from the virus hotspot of Europe.
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Old 31st May 2020, 23:07
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The governments of Tenerife and Madeira will also have to make an assessment of the socioeconomic impact to their communities of having their largest industries, and associated jobs and livelihoods decimated by an overcautious approach to a virus that is largely dying out in Europe.

Change the record, inOban. Spain had more deaths per 1000 population than the UK, and it looks like Tenerife is happy to let people in from the mainland. Maybe listen to facts instead of believing everything you see and hear by "experts" on the news. Hearing somebody say "the UK has more daily cases today than when we went into lockdown" by a so-called expert on Sky News this morning was enough to reach for the remote.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 00:41
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I know that it's getting late, but that statement on Sky need is factually correct isn't it?
It does not matter what the infection rate was 8 weeks ago. It's the current rate that matters. It seems that many Med destinations have decided that, balancing the risk to their tourist economy vs the health of their residents, they can accept visitors from those places which now have consistently low rate of new cases. The UK is not such a place at present and unless things suddenly improve, won't be for longer than we would wish.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 09:02
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Originally Posted by inOban
I know that it's getting late, but that statement on Sky need is factually correct isn't it?
It does not matter what the infection rate was 8 weeks ago. It's the current rate that matters. It seems that many Med destinations have decided that, balancing the risk to their tourist economy vs the health of their residents, they can accept visitors from those places which now have consistently low rate of new cases. The UK is not such a place at present and unless things suddenly improve, won't be for longer than we would wish.
You honestly believe more people are being infected now than on March 23rd?
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 10:26
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As often is the case it's a matter of raw numbers not giving the true picture. On 23 March 6,500 tests were carried out and 1,427 were positive; that's 21%. On 30 May 115,725 tests were 'carried out' but lets reduce that to maybe 90,000 real tests and 2,445 of those tested positive; that's 2.7%. Imagine how many positives would have resulted from 90,000 tests on 23 March - obviously hugely greater than 1,427. That says to me that there were far more new cases on 23 March than there were on 30 May.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 10:51
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Originally Posted by Expressflight
As often is the case it's a matter of raw numbers not giving the true picture. On 23 March 6,500 tests were carried out and 1,427 were positive; that's 21%. On 30 May 115,725 tests were 'carried out' but lets reduce that to maybe 90,000 real tests and 2,445 of those tested positive; that's 2.7%. Imagine how many positives would have resulted from 90,000 tests on 23 March - obviously hugely greater than 1,427. That says to me that there were far more new cases on 23 March than there were on 30 May.
A stat I saw suggested at the peak you had a 1 in 40 chance of getting the virus on a given day, whereas now itís 1 in 1000, thatís the problem with the infections chart as it doesnít factor in as you say the completely different levels of tests.

Some Italian doctors today seems to think the virus is now severely weakening too so fingers crossed.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 11:32
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Or possibly that the criteria used to authorise a test in March produced a high positive rate, while the current criteria, testing everyone in a hospital, say, produces fewer positives?

We don't know, and it doesn't help to pick those speculations which suit your wishes.

I think that we can now assume that the data from every country in western Europe are accurate and the differences in the ways they are collected are understood. It is quite clear that the UK currently has a higher rate than in our usual destinations.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 11:58
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Originally Posted by inOban
Or possibly that the criteria used to authorise a test in March produced a high positive rate, while the current criteria, testing everyone in a hospital, say, produces fewer positives?

We don't know, and it doesn't help to pick those speculations which suit your wishes.
Yes we do know. At its peak over a thousand people a day were dying in the U.K. These days itís around 200, as per the official statistics for recording the deaths, many of which wouldíve happened weeks ago. Add to that the average time from infection to death (around three weeks). So many of the 200 or so people dying today, which is already over 80% down from itís peak, wouldíve been infected over four weeks ago.

If you really believe more people are being infected today than on the 23rd March, I highly suggest turning off the TV, especially when your doom-monger in chief Nicola Sturgeon is blowing hot air.

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Old 1st Jun 2020, 12:38
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Originally Posted by inOban
We don't know, and it doesn't help to pick those speculations which suit your wishes.
I couldn't agree with you more.

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Old 1st Jun 2020, 12:42
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Originally Posted by Vokes55
Yes we do know. At its peak over a thousand people a day were dying in the U.K. These days itís around 200, as per the official statistics for recording the deaths, many of which wouldíve happened weeks ago. Add to that the average time from infection to death (around three weeks). So many of the 200 or so people dying today, which is already over 80% down from itís peak, wouldíve been infected over four weeks ago.

If you really believe more people are being infected today than on the 23rd March, I highly suggest turning off the TV, especially when your doom-monger in chief Nicola Sturgeon is blowing hot air.
I couldn't agree with you more.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 12:43
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Originally Posted by Vokes55
The governments of Tenerife and Madeira will also have to make an assessment of the socioeconomic impact to their communities of having their largest industries, and associated jobs and livelihoods decimated by an overcautious approach to a virus that is largely dying out in Europe.

Change the record, inOban. Spain had more deaths per 1000 population than the UK, and it looks like Tenerife is happy to let people in from the mainland. Maybe listen to facts instead of believing everything you see and hear by "experts" on the news. Hearing somebody say "the UK has more daily cases today than when we went into lockdown" by a so-called expert on Sky News this morning was enough to reach for the remote.
I couldn't agree with you more.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 13:24
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There seems to be some confusion here
This discussion started with a post about cases. A case only arises at diagnosis.
I made no comment about the rate of Infection. Infections will not become cases for at least a week, usually much longer.
Another factor which is rarely mentioned is that, I assume, hospitals will surely have got better at treatment so that fewer are dying?

​​​​​​The data seem to most people to show that the rate of spread declined rapidly as soon as we began social distancing, but that this decrease seems to be levelling off at a level which is too high for effective track and trace systems to manage.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 15:26
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Originally Posted by inOban
There seems to be some confusion here
This discussion started with a post about cases. A case only arises at diagnosis.
I made no comment about the rate of Infection. Infections will not become cases for at least a week, usually much longer.
Another factor which is rarely mentioned is that, I assume, hospitals will surely have got better at treatment so that fewer are dying?

​​​​​​The data seem to most people to show that the rate of spread declined rapidly as soon as we began social distancing, but that this decrease seems to be levelling off at a level which is too high for effective track and trace systems to manage.
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​​​​
1. There's a fair chance that there were around 80,000 new infections per day at the peak ( around 23 March) and around 8,000 today.
2. 8,000 is a high number ; R of 0.7 to 1.0 is a high number ; track and trace may not be able to cope with that ; track and trace is not ready ; overall it's quite a risky strategy.
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Old 1st Jun 2020, 19:19
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an overcautious approach to a virus that is largely dying out in Europe.

No, it's not dying! It has been contained and thus the number of new cases have been reducing. Lift all the restrictions, cancel social distancing, go back to packing them in at theaters, concerts, discos, bars etc., etc, and see what happens!
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 05:13
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Quarantine arrangements

Apparently during the UK's 14-day quarantine period those entering the UK from abroad will be allowed to go shopping for food and use public transport. So unless every traveller is followed around by a Border Force officer how will this prevent someone visiting the pub or cinema on their way home from Tescos after buying a sandwhich?
Critics round on No 10 over 'ridiculous' rules for 14-day quarantine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...y_to_clipboard
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 06:15
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So itís not a quarantine then. What a nonsense!
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 06:41
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Originally Posted by DomyDom
Apparently during the UK's 14-day quarantine period those entering the UK from abroad will be allowed to go shopping for food and use public transport. So unless every traveller is followed around by a Border Force officer how will this prevent someone visiting the pub or cinema on their way home from Tescos after buying a sandwhich?
Critics round on No 10 over 'ridiculous' rules for 14-day quarantine

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...y_to_clipboard
Sigh - you can use public transport to get to you place of residence if there isn't any other way of doing it - similar for getting food. Doubt there will be many pubs, cinemas open?

A No 10 source stressed that going to the shops or changing address were allowed only if no alternative was possible, and would not be seen as the norm.
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 07:16
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Originally Posted by Dannyboy39
So itís not a quarantine then. What a nonsense!
Absolute nonsense, this is a clear example of policy being formulated on the hoof, with no thought being given to how it might be enforced, or of it's consequences. Government would appear to be looking for ways to back itself out of this corner with a policy that might go a bit like the old joke "when is a quarantine not a quarantine?....when it's brought in by the British government!"

The reality is that there is, as so often here in UK, more than a whiff of "British exceptionalism" in believing that we can control who comes or goes where, and under what restrictions. With the reality of the UK's daily new infections running at much higher level than most of Europe, and much of the Far East and Australisia, the situation is that it is the British who will be banned from entering most countries, and would be visitors to the UK from those countries quarantined on arrival back home. British MPs are going on about having Air Bridges with Australia and NZ...does anyone really think either country would participate with UK given the disparity in levels of Covid-19?
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Old 2nd Jun 2020, 07:43
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I agree with your comments ATNotts. If I was a foreign visitor to the UK I would be more concerned about getting infected whilst in the UK and taking it back to my home country. I notice today that the proper newspapers (Guardian, Observer & Telegraph) are all leading with this quarantine fiasco, which for most people is far more important that the Dom-Cum saga of last week.
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