Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel
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He’s telling his own citizens not to travel abroad, he’s not saying “don’t come to Thailand”. One of the latest cases there is of a Thai citizen that traveled to Japan.
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From the BBC
If it gets into the U.K. as reported above airports will be closed down.
The latest positive test comes after England's chief medical officer, Prof Chris Whitty, warned onward transmission of the virus between people in the UK was "just a matter of time".
He said if the outbreak intensifies, it may be necessary to close schools or stop mass gatherings of people for "quite a long period of time, probably more than two months".
Meanwhile, the Cabinet Office has been in communication with local authorities about their "mass death preparedness", BBC Newsnight understands. including where they might locate new - perhaps mass - burial sites.
He said if the outbreak intensifies, it may be necessary to close schools or stop mass gatherings of people for "quite a long period of time, probably more than two months".
Meanwhile, the Cabinet Office has been in communication with local authorities about their "mass death preparedness", BBC Newsnight understands. including where they might locate new - perhaps mass - burial sites.
Let us suppose, just hypothetically, that Covid-19 really is as bad as professors of medicine are saying. 60% of population in a high income country is infected and 1% die - figures I've seen from a well respected figure. Of course you may have a different opinion on what numbers should look like, but this puts us into 1918 Spanish flu comparable territory
Under such a scenario while large numbers of people are sick, would society want a complete shutdown of commercial aviation ? Wuhan airport closed, but Shanghai-Pudong remains open albeit running at about 20% of normal traffic levels
Under such a scenario while large numbers of people are sick, would society want a complete shutdown of commercial aviation ? Wuhan airport closed, but Shanghai-Pudong remains open albeit running at about 20% of normal traffic levels
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"mass death preparedness"
Have there been any mass deaths anywhere so far? The worst affected to date is China. As I write this the count (of deaths) is 2747. What is the population of China?!
Have there been any mass deaths anywhere so far? The worst affected to date is China. As I write this the count (of deaths) is 2747. What is the population of China?!
Thread Starter
Originally Posted by davidjohnson6
Let us suppose, just hypothetically, that Covid-19 really is as bad as professors of medicine are saying. 60% of population in a high income country is infected and 1% die - figures I've seen from a well respected figure. Of course you may have a different opinion on what numbers should look like, but this puts us into 1918 Spanish flu comparable territory
Point will be trhat it would not be even spread around country, some towns could lose 40% of population where some lose a handful. Then there is the recovery of those infected, don't over rule survivors guilt that will be in the mine.
Under such a scenario while large numbers of people are sick, would society want a complete shutdown of commercial aviation ? Wuhan airport closed, but Shanghai-Pudong remains open albeit running at about 20% of normal traffic levels
Of course some states may get a hold of it and release it in a city of their enemies to destroy.
Potentially death rate could be very high as who would make and distributes food ? Also likely martial law in UK would need to be declared. Hey I point worst case scenario but imagine you have food stocked up, neighbours don't and are hungry.
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Originally Posted by ZFT
Where did you read that?
This gives the figure and it supports 6 million jobs.
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Don’t forget that the vast majority of those that will die will be the old and those in ill health already. The vast majority of “economically active” people will have very mild symptoms, more akin to a mild cold. Most wouldn’t even know they had it, and would go about their daily business like they do now.
So I don't see your “worst case scenario” as any sort of reality.
So I don't see your “worst case scenario” as any sort of reality.
Jonty
Racedo lives in "Darkest Surrey", and judging by the tone of his posts on quite a few subjects, he also personally seems to inhabit quite a dark space ! Keep calm and carry on as you say, and remember nobody lives for ever. I wonder what the figure is World Wide for road deaths over the last 2 months to put some context to things in comparison with this virus which seems to be shall we say tolerated to a degree. As for tourism I have not noticed much in the way of sales yet for quick breaks to the likes of Seychelles, Maldives, Mauritius to name 3 places I have recently looked for deals on.
Racedo lives in "Darkest Surrey", and judging by the tone of his posts on quite a few subjects, he also personally seems to inhabit quite a dark space ! Keep calm and carry on as you say, and remember nobody lives for ever. I wonder what the figure is World Wide for road deaths over the last 2 months to put some context to things in comparison with this virus which seems to be shall we say tolerated to a degree. As for tourism I have not noticed much in the way of sales yet for quick breaks to the likes of Seychelles, Maldives, Mauritius to name 3 places I have recently looked for deals on.
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Great if we knew that as no one would have to worry but there is nothing to back that up. Spanish Flu killed 100 million, 3-5% of the World's population, equally likely to kill young as the old. It will destroy the industry this board is about.
An Albanian friend (late 50's) talking recently of growing up there and said her Grandmother remembered way back to that time, passing on oral history, rural area but able to have said about this family of 13, 3 left after a great sickness that affected everybody, they farming and had decent amount of food available so were not malnourished.
We live in a different time but on 2 cases already we know that 1 lady after taking a Ryanair flight from Italy to Greece is now infected, second person in Belfast took a Ryanair flight from Italy to Dublin. 100 years ago their trip was 2-3 weeks, now its 2-3 hours.
An Albanian friend (late 50's) talking recently of growing up there and said her Grandmother remembered way back to that time, passing on oral history, rural area but able to have said about this family of 13, 3 left after a great sickness that affected everybody, they farming and had decent amount of food available so were not malnourished.
We live in a different time but on 2 cases already we know that 1 lady after taking a Ryanair flight from Italy to Greece is now infected, second person in Belfast took a Ryanair flight from Italy to Dublin. 100 years ago their trip was 2-3 weeks, now its 2-3 hours.
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One of the unusual features of this virus is that the older you are, the more likely that you will get seriously ill or die. Most of these diseases also attack the very young, but there have been no fatalities at all among children.
racedo
This does not appear to be Spanish Influenza like, and generally people are healthier than in 1918. It may become a big issue when it gets into 3rd World countries where the population is not always so healthy, and indeed where health care can be more problematic but it was ever thus. The idea of just pulling up the draw bridge no longer works, and indeed it is doubtful that it ever did when you look at the various other issues we have had like Plague. You just carry on and look after yourself as well as possible.
This does not appear to be Spanish Influenza like, and generally people are healthier than in 1918. It may become a big issue when it gets into 3rd World countries where the population is not always so healthy, and indeed where health care can be more problematic but it was ever thus. The idea of just pulling up the draw bridge no longer works, and indeed it is doubtful that it ever did when you look at the various other issues we have had like Plague. You just carry on and look after yourself as well as possible.
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Originally Posted by nowhereasfiled
Me. Swiped some Ryanair flights to Milan for a fiver next weekend. Will be happy to make the most of having the city to ourselves, no queues at the bar, every cloud and all that.
