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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 30th May 2020, 09:53
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Originally Posted by inOban
Yesterday the UK declared over 2000 new cases, Spain and Italy 5-600, France less than 200. It what way are we not massively worse?
You do realise 2000 cases per day means one in every 34,000 people in this country is getting the virus. That would be one person in 188 full A320 sized aircraft. Given that the number will inevitably decrease in the next five weeks, Iíd imagine countries like Spain and Greece who are heavily reliant on British tourists to keep their economies afloat would take those odds.
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Old 30th May 2020, 10:06
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The Minister of Tourism for the Canary Islands, Yaiza Castilla, is far from optimistic on the arrival of visitors from July 1 and maintains that the return to normality will be slow and not without complications. Castilla, recalls that despite the positive elements, the outlook is not at all clear and many aspects still need to be clarified. With the data available, the forecast is that the presence of international tourism in summer will be of a residual nature compared to a normal season and the Canary Islands should focus in the short term on local tourism and some peninsular tourism and strive to deliver a start in winter in a “solid and safe way”.
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Old 30th May 2020, 10:26
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Spain and Greece are reliant on tourists full stop. Not just UK ones. They could reasonably decide to ensure the safety of German etc tourists by eliminating those from higher risk areas such as the UK and Sweden.

The first, even local, outbreak in any Costa will kill the rest of the season

There seems to be a sense of British exceptionalism among some posts. The world no longer revolves around us.
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Old 30th May 2020, 10:29
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Vokes - the positive test cases reported by the Department of Health do not include the number of people staying at home while coughing away. The question for Spain is whether 2,000 cases per day represents a very small tip or a large chunk of the iceberg. If 2,000 positive tests is accompanied by another 2,000 other cases which weren't identified, then it's still 1 person in 94 A320s - ie an acceptable risk. If the number of unidentified cases is significantly more, then Spain might want to be more cautious.

The other factor is the capacity of hospitals to deal with a local spike in Covid cases. I suspect that the likes of Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia could cope, but somewhere like Lanzarote or Mallorca which have modest year-round populations combined with a seasonal surge of mainly healthy people (people who are ill tend not to fly) who typically need just minor treatment (bumps, bruises, etc) could not, thus a greater need for caution
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Old 30th May 2020, 11:25
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On a point of context, the numbers of new cases reported daily by each country is a function of the number tested that day. One country reporting, say, 600 new cases out of 50,000 tests would be faring no better than a country reporting 1,200 new cases from 100,000 tests, even though at first glance (all that the media ever seem to take) it might appear so. The trouble is I haven't been able to find daily testing numbers for other European countries in order to judge how badly UK is actually doing by comparison. Does anyone here have access to that information I wonder.
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Old 30th May 2020, 11:32
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Originally Posted by davidjohnson6
Vokes - the positive test cases reported by the Department of Health do not include the number of people staying at home while coughing away. The question for Spain is whether 2,000 cases per day represents a very small tip or a large chunk of the iceberg. If 2,000 positive tests is accompanied by another 2,000 other cases which weren't identified, then it's still 1 person in 94 A320s - ie an acceptable risk. If the number of unidentified cases is significantly more, then Spain might want to be more cautious.

The other factor is the capacity of hospitals to deal with a local spike in Covid cases. I suspect that the likes of Madrid, Barcelona and Valencia could cope, but somewhere like Lanzarote or Mallorca which have modest year-round populations combined with a seasonal surge of mainly healthy people (people who are ill tend not to fly) who typically need just minor treatment (bumps, bruises, etc) could not, thus a greater need for caution
Given that everybody can get a test these days, the gap between the "confirmed" cases and the actual cases should be closing. 2000 confirmed cases today is going to mean significantly fewer actual cases than 2000 confirmed cases in April. In any form, these numbers are coming down and have another four weeks to come down further.

There seems to be a sense of British exceptionalism among some posts. The world no longer revolves around us.


British tourists make up the majority in a lot of resorts in Spain. Without the British, the industry suffers. Call it what you want, it's the truth.

The trouble is I haven't been able to find daily testing numbers for other European countries in order to judge how badly UK is actually doing by comparison. Does anyone here have access to that information I wonder.
As of yesterday, the UK has now done more tests than any other country in Europe, and is third in the world behind the USA and Russia.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ is a good source of information, including the all important deaths per million population figure, much to the annoyance of the sensationalist drama queens in this thread that can't see past the raw death figures.


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Old 30th May 2020, 11:50
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Originally Posted by Vokes55
As of yesterday, the UK has now done more tests than any other country in Europe, and is third in the world behind the USA and Russia. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ is a good source of information, including the all important deaths per million population figure, much to the annoyance of the sensationalist drama queens in this thread that can't see past the raw death figures.
Yes, I know that website and was hoping to use it to obtain the daily numbers for other European countries. The trouble is that the 'Total Tests' for Spain, France and Germany have not been updated for at least two days - they obviously must have carried out a large number of tests since the total numbers currently shown on the website.
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Old 30th May 2020, 11:52
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Vokes - the positive test cases reported by the Department of Health do not include the number of people staying at home while coughing away. The question for Spain is whether 2,000 cases per day represents a very small tip or a large chunk of the iceberg
Not strictly true. There is a longitudinal study ongoing at the moment where 10,000+ people chosen at random are being tested regularly, whether or not they have symptoms, and as far as I am aware, these tests form part of the UK daily figures. That said, it only forms 10% or so of the total daily testing in UK. These people may, or may not be coughing away, and of course may or may not be asymptomatic.
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Old 30th May 2020, 13:38
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And the testing of everyone at Weston hospital showed that a large majority of the positive tests came from people without symptoms, but obviously still infectious.
​​​​​​Several posters are assuming that the numbers will continue to fall over the next weeks, and that we can safely plan on that basis. I and others, including the epidemiologists, think that we should wait until we have the situation clearly fully controlled. The chaos if thousands book holidays which then have to be cancelled....

Perhaps we should only allow self catering accommodation?

As the Canary Islands tourism minister said, very limited this summer with a view to a full winter.
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Old 30th May 2020, 13:48
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Originally Posted by inOban
As the Canary Islands tourism minister said, very limited this summer with a view to a full winter.
Easy for them to say that when Winter is their busiest season. I donít think youíll get anybody responsible for tourism in the Balearics saying the same.

And yes the number will go down. And life will go on.
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Old 30th May 2020, 13:59
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True, but increasing numbers are going to the Costas on winter also. With global warming, I don't know why anyone wants to go to the Med in summer.
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Old 30th May 2020, 14:03
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Originally Posted by inOban
True, but increasing numbers are going to the Costas on winter also. With global warming, I don't know why anyone wants to go to the Med in summer.
Palma de Mallorca city centre in January can very easily be cold, rainy and miserable. Beach would probably be a complete non-starter
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Old 30th May 2020, 21:07
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The number of deaths in Italy was much higher than could be recorded in real time.
If you read the article below you will find a comparison between the recorded Covid19 deaths and the total number of excess deaths.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...article-link-6

In summary, Belgium has no xs deaths. Many other countries, inc the UK, have quite a lot of xs deaths, but in Italy the real death rate is twice the declared number.
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Old 31st May 2020, 07:59
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The Covid-19 coronavirus is still relatively new, so accurate data on how it can spread between aircraft passengers is in short supply. But previous studies have looked at the spread of other respiratory illnesses. Based on the available information, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention generally tries to track down people sitting in the two rows in front and the two rows behind passengers found to have serious infections.

A 2018 study by researchers from Emory University in Atlanta attempted to model how passengers and crew moved about an aircraft, and how that might affect the transmission of infectious diseases. "A droplet-mediated respiratory infectious disease is unlikely to be directly transmitted beyond one metre from the infectious passenger. Thus, transmission is limited to one row in front of or in back of an infectious passenger," the researchers concluded.

But contrary to this, earlier research - led by the same academics - had shown that in real life cases passengers with Sars or influenza actually appeared to have infected a number of people well outside their immediate area. Their explanation was that some of those who became ill had become infected in the airport, while embarking or disembarking from the plane, or from touching contaminated surfaces, rather than by breathing in infected droplets.
"Filtration only works on mass airflows, most of the transmission during a plane journey will be those short-range face-to-face conversations. Close range aerosol transmission is what you have to be worried about on a plane, train or a bus - this is the biggest risk."

And even if you are further away, the risk is not eliminated, says Dr Tang. "How long Covid-19 can remain airborne depends on a range of factors. It varies between different people, it varies depending on the state of your infection, and you can't say all the droplets will fall to the ground within two metres. Some smaller droplets can stay suspended and travel up to 16 metres - and they all could be carrying the virus."
BBC - Coronavirus: How safe is it to get on a plane?
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Old 31st May 2020, 19:41
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Under the current circumstances who in their right mind would want to go abroad from the UK ? Currently the FCO still advises against it, countries like Greece and Spain have banned us. If you got to your destination you might have to quarantine, social distance etc etc. It would be the most unrelaxing experience and a holiday from hell. Then travel home and spend another couple of weeks in quarantine, all the time wondering have I caught it ? There are so many stories about being safe in an aircraft, people will be paranoid if someone sneezed or coughed in the aircraft. Have heard that some airlines are going to make it mandatory to wear face masks, example five hour flight, no food or drink, permission to use the toilet. It's a nightmare ! But I guess there will be some who will try ?

Not for me, I am waiting it out, my family is far too important to risk them !
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Old 31st May 2020, 20:14
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If quarantine-on-arrival is dropped by the UK Govt, I'm beginning to think a summer holiday in rural Sweden could be a good option.
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Old 31st May 2020, 20:39
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''Under the current circumstances who in their right mind would want to go abroad from the UK ?''

I for one would be happy to come back here to Tenerife, where yesterdays figures were 2 new cases and Nil deaths, 14 days quarantine in my apartment and then feel safer than in the uk. Listening to friends that have made the journey to/from uk on that 'dreaded' plane was not as you describe but was quite orderly. but each to their own and I would have no hesitation in making the journey.
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Old 31st May 2020, 20:45
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Spain has delivered a huge blow to British tourists who have their sights set on a Spanish summer holiday this year.

THE country’s Minister of Industry, Commerce and Tourism Reyes Maroto has stated that the UK’s Covid-19 statistics must improve before Brits can return to Spain, but welcomed tourists from low-risk coronavirus countries like Germany and the Nordic states. In an interview with Efe yesterday, she pointed out that “holidaymakers from the UK would have to wait to come to Spain until the country’s coronavirus statistics improve,”

Although Maroto has spoken with tour operators like TUI and Jet2holidays, she is adamant that the UK’s health statistics must improve before holidaymakers can come back, pointing out that “the British authorities are also advising against international travel, so tour operators in the UK are at a standstill right now.”
According to Maroto, it’s vital that the “first tourists to Spain are at the same stage of the pandemic as us.” So she plans to welcome holidaymakers from low-risk Covid-19 countries first, particularly if Spain can open its doors to international tourism in mid-June, thanks to the ‘safe travel corridors’ concept. If the safe corridors concept can be agreed, “Spain will prioritise and welcome tourists from countries with low rates of coronavirus, such as Germany and some Nordic nations,” confirmed Maroto.

Spain could potentially start to welcome international tourists from mid-June to areas that are safe and ready for international tourism, like the Baleares and Canary Islands once the safe corridors are approved. Some of the islands in both territories are expected to enter Phase 3 of de-escalation on Monday June 1, which are well ahead of most of the other regions in the country. They include La Gomera, El Hierro, La Graciosa in the Canary Islands and Formentera in the Baleares.

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Old 31st May 2020, 21:48
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Ericlday, this may be true now, given that we're some weeks behind Spain, and will probably still be the case mid-June, but given that the U.K airlines are realistically looking at a Jul start, we'll probably be in a whole different picture by then.
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Old 31st May 2020, 21:58
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I think that probably is too strong a word. The current trends do not suggest that numbers will have fallen to a level any sane European government would consider safe.
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