Originally Posted by
Expressflight
As often is the case it's a matter of raw numbers not giving the true picture. On 23 March 6,500 tests were carried out and 1,427 were positive; that's 21%. On 30 May 115,725 tests were 'carried out' but lets reduce that to maybe 90,000 real tests and 2,445 of those tested positive; that's 2.7%. Imagine how many positives would have resulted from 90,000 tests on 23 March - obviously hugely greater than 1,427. That says to me that there were far more new cases on 23 March than there were on 30 May.
A stat I saw suggested at the peak you had a 1 in 40 chance of getting the virus on a given day, whereas now it’s 1 in 1000, that’s the problem with the infections chart as it doesn’t factor in as you say the completely different levels of tests.
Some Italian doctors today seems to think the virus is now severely weakening too so fingers crossed.