Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel
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All this hysteria has to end - people need to take a risk based approach. This is not Ebola or the Plague or Leprosy.
Been reading some of the science rather than the tabloids. If you are under 50 your chances of dying of cv19 are tiny - no greater than any other risk in life. Even at 80 your risk increases by under 10%. Life is risky - always has been - always will be. For politicians to pretend otherwise is deceiptful. Flying is risky for heavens sake, even more risky is the journey to the airport but we are not constantly bombarded with statistics and mawkish stories about car crashes and slips and trips.
We are frightening ourselves in to economic ruin, the consequences of which will be far worse than the virus. The medicine is worse than the illness.
Unfortunately our inept politicians paint themselves deeper in to a corner with every self-righteous pronouncement. The virus is here and it's been here months now - let's get over it. It isn't going to go away by putting stupid quarantine restrictions in place - it's all just theatre and sadly, increasingly, politics. People have been made to feel so afraid and powerless that they have been robbed of rational thought and feel they need government guidance on the best way to fart without 'spreading the virus'.
We are asking the young to pay an incalculable price to protect the old and vulnerable who should be isolated anyway if they are at great risk. Those that are not at risk should be allowed to go about their business without hinderance from the state.
It is a fact that the leading cause of death among the 21-35 yr age group is suicide. The virus is not going to change that - other than to make it an even greater leading cause of death.
Been reading some of the science rather than the tabloids. If you are under 50 your chances of dying of cv19 are tiny - no greater than any other risk in life. Even at 80 your risk increases by under 10%. Life is risky - always has been - always will be. For politicians to pretend otherwise is deceiptful. Flying is risky for heavens sake, even more risky is the journey to the airport but we are not constantly bombarded with statistics and mawkish stories about car crashes and slips and trips.
We are frightening ourselves in to economic ruin, the consequences of which will be far worse than the virus. The medicine is worse than the illness.
Unfortunately our inept politicians paint themselves deeper in to a corner with every self-righteous pronouncement. The virus is here and it's been here months now - let's get over it. It isn't going to go away by putting stupid quarantine restrictions in place - it's all just theatre and sadly, increasingly, politics. People have been made to feel so afraid and powerless that they have been robbed of rational thought and feel they need government guidance on the best way to fart without 'spreading the virus'.
We are asking the young to pay an incalculable price to protect the old and vulnerable who should be isolated anyway if they are at great risk. Those that are not at risk should be allowed to go about their business without hinderance from the state.
It is a fact that the leading cause of death among the 21-35 yr age group is suicide. The virus is not going to change that - other than to make it an even greater leading cause of death.
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FFMAN, the problem is and has always been not to overwhelm the ability for hospitals etc to deal with a large influx of patients. That's what all the restrictions were/are about. There's no doubt that if society gets back to "normal" there will be an even larger wave just around the corner. The young may survive but may also be off work for weeks*" when infected. The outcome of that will be just as, if not more, catastrophic to the economy. Meanwhile, the old will die in pain at home or along hospital corridors!
** My young neighbours, healthcare workers, both contracted the virus. They were off work for three weeks.
** My young neighbours, healthcare workers, both contracted the virus. They were off work for three weeks.
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FFMAN, the problem is and has always been not to overwhelm the ability for hospitals etc to deal with a large influx of patients. That's what all the restrictions were/are about. There's no doubt that if society gets back to "normal" there will be an even larger wave just around the corner. The young may survive but may also be off work for weeks*" when infected. The outcome of that will be just as, if not more, catastrophic to the economy. Meanwhile, the old will die in pain at home or along hospital corridors!
** My young neighbours, healthcare workers, both contracted the virus. They were off work for three weeks.
** My young neighbours, healthcare workers, both contracted the virus. They were off work for three weeks.
The facts re this virus are unless you have underlying health issues or are elderly the chances of dying is minimal. Get the young fit and healthy back to work. Focus on ways of keeping the old and vulnerable safe. This virus is going nowhere quick and is with us to stay, a effective vaccine may never be found. Society has to move forwards we cannot shut ourselves off and bury our heads in sand hoping it goes away. Who knows what will happen next, it may come back in the winter it may not, we need to work on the premises that it will return in some form or other.
lift the lockdown, forget 14 days quarantine get the planes moving. Let the public decide if they want to travel they are educated and can absorb the information available, making a balanced decision by themselves. If you think the risk is too great stay at home, nobody is forcing you to travel.
The industry is is on its knees and every day that passes without a change of policy the greater the damage. I fear for the many people reliant on the industry for a living. Many companies/handling agents/airlines will not survive. This is a man made tragedy, economic suicide. The government has a lot to answer for, the scientific expert quoting 600000 deaths, failed to follow his own advice. Yes the virus is nasty and unpleasant but nowhere near as bad as what is coming with the recession.
Boris is a lucky man in that he still has 4 years of his term to run. My bet is when the country is in economic ruin in 4 years time with vast areas of the country in poverty. Constituency’s that for the first time in an age voted Tory will revert back to Labour costing the Tories a majority.
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Let the public decide if they want to travel they are educated and can absorb the information available, making a balanced decision by themselves.
So, if the politicians can't do that do you honestly think the public can? I'd wager that 52% of the public can't!
So, if the politicians can't do that do you honestly think the public can? I'd wager that 52% of the public can't!
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Insurance...
Many of the above arguments are reasoned and passionate. But the question remains - who will be prepared to take what would have been a "normal" holiday abroad without insurance cover? For people to start flying willingly that problem needs resolving.
Many of the above arguments are reasoned and passionate. But the question remains - who will be prepared to take what would have been a "normal" holiday abroad without insurance cover? For people to start flying willingly that problem needs resolving.
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In fairness to politicians I do have some sympathy in this case - damned if they do, damned if they don't.
If we don't wake up and stop this nonsense, the same thing is going to happen when CV-20 comes along, CV-21 etc. There literally will be nothing worth living for. Every time somebody has a common cold or a sore throat they have now been conditioned to fear for their lives; and in any case the state has dictated that your life is to cease to exist for 2 weeks. Will people be allowed on a plane with a common cold? - what about poor hay fever sufferers who will now be treated like pariahs? Lack of confidence in planning ahead on its own is probably enough to kill the airline business without anything else. Will people be willing to accept they might lose their holiday and their money just because they have the sniffles (sorry 'symptoms') We really are living in a truly Orwellian world.
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Can you take a complex calculated risk subconsciously?
It is fundamental to the nature of being human to be as much emotional as rational.
And many people live for the freedom to engage in risky pursuits.
But we also love our friends and families, in particular our parents and grandparents. We don't wish to regard them as disposable so that we can continue to travel.
It is fundamental to the nature of being human to be as much emotional as rational.
And many people live for the freedom to engage in risky pursuits.
But we also love our friends and families, in particular our parents and grandparents. We don't wish to regard them as disposable so that we can continue to travel.
Can you take a complex calculated risk subconsciously?
We really are living in a truly Orwellian world.
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Every time you drive a car.
Which is why we have car accidents when our adrenaline gets going.
in normal times we would be much safer using the bus or train. But our emotional need to feel in control makes us drive.
No we are not, now you're just doing what you are accusing others of...
Which is why we have car accidents when our adrenaline gets going.
in normal times we would be much safer using the bus or train. But our emotional need to feel in control makes us drive.
No we are not, now you're just doing what you are accusing others of...
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Spacedog
lift the lockdown, forget 14 days quarantine get the planes moving. Let the public decide if they want to travel they are educated and can absorb the information available, making a balanced decision by themselves. If you think the risk is too great stay at home, nobody is forcing you to travel.
Spot on now lets put into categories who is likely or not likely to travel
lets take summer holiday to Spain Greece etc
18-30 year olds ie club 18-30 if still going, I say are 99% most likely will still travel and most likely are safe to do so, if all the bars/clubs are open, pools beach etc these would most likely take the risk along with stag/hen parties. are these people going to have insurance? probably but mainly for loss of i-phone or a boozed up accident, broken bone etc. so there insurance will cover there needs.
Family 2 adults, 2 kids etc again most likely will travel again majority of parents will be early 20/s to late 40's again not at risk (unless pre health problems) and children we have been told are the least at risk more chance kids catching it at school or with friends than being on holiday, again insurance will be more for lost phones/ipads games etc
Older generation and people with pre existing health conditions are going to be at risk and should be sensible enough not to travel anyway, insurance would be required and you be a fool to travel without it, but any insurance would be sky high in this category
now I don't have the information on % of each age group that travels but if we did it even on a three way split that's 66% flight full (or 99% on easyjet minus middle seat)
European Flights not bucket and spade destinations
Students either going home on holiday or back to place of study (if open) again very low risk are they going to have insurance if going home to parents likely not
Families returning home or travel home to stay with family again low risk
Business traveler going on a day return flight do you need quarantine? whats the difference between going from Manchester to London via train then getting taxi or tube to your head office for a meeting to return home again at night, and Manchester to Frankfurt meeting with client return home on evening flight,?
Insurance will most likely be annual and most will be still valid pre covid-19 and employer most likely pay the cost again, most business travelers will be low risk with the exception of those still going nearer to retirement age and anyone with pre health conditions again
Also remember we are the worst affected Country exc USA so would you feel safer around the pool in Spain or in ASDA
Protect the people that need protection and let the rest return to normal life,
lift the lockdown, forget 14 days quarantine get the planes moving. Let the public decide if they want to travel they are educated and can absorb the information available, making a balanced decision by themselves. If you think the risk is too great stay at home, nobody is forcing you to travel.
Spot on now lets put into categories who is likely or not likely to travel
lets take summer holiday to Spain Greece etc
18-30 year olds ie club 18-30 if still going, I say are 99% most likely will still travel and most likely are safe to do so, if all the bars/clubs are open, pools beach etc these would most likely take the risk along with stag/hen parties. are these people going to have insurance? probably but mainly for loss of i-phone or a boozed up accident, broken bone etc. so there insurance will cover there needs.
Family 2 adults, 2 kids etc again most likely will travel again majority of parents will be early 20/s to late 40's again not at risk (unless pre health problems) and children we have been told are the least at risk more chance kids catching it at school or with friends than being on holiday, again insurance will be more for lost phones/ipads games etc
Older generation and people with pre existing health conditions are going to be at risk and should be sensible enough not to travel anyway, insurance would be required and you be a fool to travel without it, but any insurance would be sky high in this category
now I don't have the information on % of each age group that travels but if we did it even on a three way split that's 66% flight full (or 99% on easyjet minus middle seat)
European Flights not bucket and spade destinations
Students either going home on holiday or back to place of study (if open) again very low risk are they going to have insurance if going home to parents likely not
Families returning home or travel home to stay with family again low risk
Business traveler going on a day return flight do you need quarantine? whats the difference between going from Manchester to London via train then getting taxi or tube to your head office for a meeting to return home again at night, and Manchester to Frankfurt meeting with client return home on evening flight,?
Insurance will most likely be annual and most will be still valid pre covid-19 and employer most likely pay the cost again, most business travelers will be low risk with the exception of those still going nearer to retirement age and anyone with pre health conditions again
Also remember we are the worst affected Country exc USA so would you feel safer around the pool in Spain or in ASDA
Protect the people that need protection and let the rest return to normal life,
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Rational thought has gone missing, not just here but in everyday life.
Government is deciding whether you can see your family or not and people are obeying. People under effective house arrest and banned from travelling with Police and Governments deciding they decide what people can do.
Freedom to disagree is shouted down, censored and anybody not agreeing with the Government / Officialdom mantra is abused, villified and held to public scorn.
75 years after the worst regime in history was removed people have willingly surrended freedoms because Govt has told them of a danger.
As of now 309,000 people have died, 4.7 million have been officialy claimed to be are infected after testing. Yet 450k plus deaths a year occur to malaria every year and nobody really cares in western media and up to 650 thousand dead is an worldwide is an average flu season
Airline industry and many others killed for what could be no worse death total than a flu season.
Government is deciding whether you can see your family or not and people are obeying. People under effective house arrest and banned from travelling with Police and Governments deciding they decide what people can do.
Freedom to disagree is shouted down, censored and anybody not agreeing with the Government / Officialdom mantra is abused, villified and held to public scorn.
75 years after the worst regime in history was removed people have willingly surrended freedoms because Govt has told them of a danger.
As of now 309,000 people have died, 4.7 million have been officialy claimed to be are infected after testing. Yet 450k plus deaths a year occur to malaria every year and nobody really cares in western media and up to 650 thousand dead is an worldwide is an average flu season
Airline industry and many others killed for what could be no worse death total than a flu season.
Blame the press then and not the government. No government could have stood by and done nothing with the press hounding at their door. It wasn’t the government that caused a shortage of toilet rolls it was the press. Now we have had weeks of news bulletins where there is now only one story so whose fault is that?
ift the lockdown, forget 14 days quarantine get the planes moving. Let the public decide if they want to travel they are educated and can absorb the information available, making a balanced decision by themselves. If you think the risk is too great stay at home, nobody is forcing you to travel.
Blame the press then and not the government. No government could have stood by and done nothing with the press hounding at their door. It wasn’t the government that caused a shortage of toilet rolls it was the press. Now we have had weeks of news bulletins where there is now only one story so whose fault is that?
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I agree that we would all love to get aviation moving again. As a medical publisher I’m a frequent flyer and also involved in organising medical conferences, again this relies on groups of clinicians flying all over the world.
However, what the rampant ‘unlock brigade’ on this forum fail to grasp is that the restrictions are not ‘mamby pamby’ measure to make sure we don’t contract COVID-19, the restrictions are to SLOW THE SPREAD of the infection throughout the population.
The virus will not go away or die out - it will remain with us. Until a vaccine is available or an effective treatment can be developed, we will need to adapt the way we live our lives to ensure that we always have the capacity within our health systems and to ensure that we don’t overwhelm our hospitals.
This means social distancing, enhanced cleaning and hand hygiene will have to remain with us for the foreseeable future.
Reducing contact is the only tool we have at our disposal to help to control the spread, and people are going to have accept that further periods of restrictions will have to be imposed and relaxed in waves to allow society to continue to function. This will cause on-going disruption to air travel in the years going forward and any return to previous levels of travel is unlikely in the next few years.
This is the ‘new normal’ and airlines and airports are going to need to contract and adapt to deal with the reality of years of continuous on-going disruption.
However, what the rampant ‘unlock brigade’ on this forum fail to grasp is that the restrictions are not ‘mamby pamby’ measure to make sure we don’t contract COVID-19, the restrictions are to SLOW THE SPREAD of the infection throughout the population.
The virus will not go away or die out - it will remain with us. Until a vaccine is available or an effective treatment can be developed, we will need to adapt the way we live our lives to ensure that we always have the capacity within our health systems and to ensure that we don’t overwhelm our hospitals.
This means social distancing, enhanced cleaning and hand hygiene will have to remain with us for the foreseeable future.
Reducing contact is the only tool we have at our disposal to help to control the spread, and people are going to have accept that further periods of restrictions will have to be imposed and relaxed in waves to allow society to continue to function. This will cause on-going disruption to air travel in the years going forward and any return to previous levels of travel is unlikely in the next few years.
This is the ‘new normal’ and airlines and airports are going to need to contract and adapt to deal with the reality of years of continuous on-going disruption.
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Contributions like SotonFlightpath's above are much more useful. Yes, I am also a (furloughed) professional pilot and want to get back in the air ASAP. But some people need to get real, you can't just imagine everything is fine and dandy. I fear the UK government's inaction at the start is going to cost us all dearly. The Channel 4 documentary about how South Korea kept the whole thing under control is quite the eye-opener and only highlights how much we are in trouble in this country. Still lack of PPE, still no mass testing, contact tracing a farce, NHS app outsourced to one of the government's mates, etc.
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The press are the Govt............... always have been always will be.
The press parrot UK Govt policies on International issues all the time with rare examples of questioning of where Govt is doing something abroad.
The press parrot UK Govt policies on International issues all the time with rare examples of questioning of where Govt is doing something abroad.
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The trouble with relying on people's common sense is that any policy which is common sense to one person seems stupid to another. It all depends on your fundamental political (small p) world view through which you filter everything you see or hear. (Brexit is a good example.) Evidence which fits your views is seen as important and reliable; contrary evidence can be safely ignored as untrustworthy.
BTW this is a real problem throughout science.
I am reminded of the old proverbs 'You can take a horse to water but you cannot make him drink' and A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still
Remember that some people never get symptoms, but are still infectious, and anyway you are spreading for at least a day before symptoms appear. And although people of working age rarely die, they may get seriously ill, and a proportion are ill for several weeks. Indeed it is quite likely that, because of circulating blood clots, some may have permanent damage to their kidneys, lungs or brain.
Remember also that it is generally accepted that in nearly all countries the published death rate is a gross underestimate, as the poor, on whose services we rely, generally live in conditions where spread is inevitable, and they die untested.
Let's consider the examples from a previous post of people who will leap at the chance to restart flying.
Your young person holiday. Well, we saw what happened in Seoul when they reopened the bars, even in a famously well behaved country. One person went for a night out, I think they are still tracking and tracing the contacts.
Your young family. A family group will always be more cautious than an individual. They might go in October. And they will choose self catering, avoiding the hotel dining room.
Business. The major outbreak in Munich began with a business visit from China. A week later the virus had spread right through the Head Office. And many of the first cases in Scotland began with a meeting of Nike managers in Edinburgh. I believe they still don't know which of them brought the virus
Whether or not an individual manager is willing to fly, I think that their insurance company will refuse cover.
But what do I know. I've only got a Ph,D in molecular biology.
BTW this is a real problem throughout science.
I am reminded of the old proverbs 'You can take a horse to water but you cannot make him drink' and A man convinced against his will is of the same opinion still
Remember that some people never get symptoms, but are still infectious, and anyway you are spreading for at least a day before symptoms appear. And although people of working age rarely die, they may get seriously ill, and a proportion are ill for several weeks. Indeed it is quite likely that, because of circulating blood clots, some may have permanent damage to their kidneys, lungs or brain.
Remember also that it is generally accepted that in nearly all countries the published death rate is a gross underestimate, as the poor, on whose services we rely, generally live in conditions where spread is inevitable, and they die untested.
Let's consider the examples from a previous post of people who will leap at the chance to restart flying.
Your young person holiday. Well, we saw what happened in Seoul when they reopened the bars, even in a famously well behaved country. One person went for a night out, I think they are still tracking and tracing the contacts.
Your young family. A family group will always be more cautious than an individual. They might go in October. And they will choose self catering, avoiding the hotel dining room.
Business. The major outbreak in Munich began with a business visit from China. A week later the virus had spread right through the Head Office. And many of the first cases in Scotland began with a meeting of Nike managers in Edinburgh. I believe they still don't know which of them brought the virus
Whether or not an individual manager is willing to fly, I think that their insurance company will refuse cover.
But what do I know. I've only got a Ph,D in molecular biology.
