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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

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Coronavirus Impact on Air Travel

Old 22nd Jan 2021, 22:18
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Hotel quarantine for UK arrivals to be discussed https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55774380
Ministers will discuss at a meeting on Monday whether to further tighten restrictions at UK borders, including the possibility of hotel quarantines for travellers, the BBC has been told.
It comes amid increased concerns over the spread of new coronavirus variants.

Last edited by LTNman; 22nd Jan 2021 at 23:38.
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Old 23rd Jan 2021, 05:21
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By December 2021, it's likely that many of the rich countries of the world will have vaccinated at least 75% of their resident populations. If there are no new major widespread new strains resistant to the current vaccine, then it seems likely borders will loosen significantly over the next 12 months. It would surprise me if Oz, NZ, HK, Taiwan and other countries which are currently super strict continue their current effectively-only-residents-can-enter policy by Jan 2022
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Old 23rd Jan 2021, 05:25
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I don’t think NZ are planning to open their border until April 2022 because their own vaccine rollout is a lot slower than others. Meanwhile Australia are busy shutting down the whole country for 1 case and sticking people in rat infested hotel rooms for 2 weeks+. Their populations are quite happy for isolation and dirty Johnny Foreigner staying out.
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Old 23rd Jan 2021, 09:30
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Drawbridges about to be raised in Europe?
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...nair-1.4465649

Discussions appear to have already started between the Government and the UK on how to solve the “border” issue, which could mean Ireland and Britain end up forming some sort of a travel bubble.
Meanwhile at Luton Airport a man from Luton has been arrested on suspicion of selling fake coronavirus test certificates.The man in his 30s was detained for fraud by false representation at Luton Airport at around 8pm on Wednesday, 20 January.
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Old 23rd Jan 2021, 15:07
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It's almost inevitable that much international travel will eventually require a vaccine passport. The only question is whether it will be a physical document or some clever digital certificate.
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Old 23rd Jan 2021, 15:17
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I thing It's the only way in which the international travel industry will get back on it's feet, but the real game changer will only come when it has been proved that vaccination stops people carrying the virus asymptomatically, and spreading it to others. I imagine that's not going to be sorted out until probably 6 months after vaccinations started, so May / June 2021.
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Old 23rd Jan 2021, 15:40
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The vaccine does not prevent people catching the virus - it simply reduces the chances of them becoming seriously unwell. Furthermore it only reduces (and does not prevent) them from spreading the disease to others.

Mass international air travel will not resume until the vaccine has been rolled out worldwide and the requirement for testing and quarantine on arrival have been removed. The latter part of this is going to be extremely difficult, since many countries seem to have adopted a 'Covid-Zero' strategy, which is just not compatible with open borders.

The whole thing will take years, as opposed to months to resolve.

I see the short-medium term future as being regional travel areas or travel corridors between countries with agreed Covid protocols. And I think the long-haul business market will probably never fully return since everyone has realised pretty much the same effect can be achieved through MS Teams
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Old 23rd Jan 2021, 15:57
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To see the size of the problem when it comes to vaccinating the world it is worth looking at the last chart on this vaccination list. I suspect come Christmas most of the countries on this list will not have vaccinated even 5% of their population.

https://www.politico.eu/article/coro...y-the-numbers/

Last edited by LTNman; 23rd Jan 2021 at 16:25.
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Old 23rd Jan 2021, 16:25
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Internation travel is dead until 2022, lets not kid ourselves that vaccine will sort out everything. Even with mega roll outs it will be September / October before any reasonable assessment will be valid. Any new variants will set that back.
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Old 23rd Jan 2021, 16:39
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One already carrie around a mobile phone that accurately and uniquely identifies one's location on the planet. One pays electronically for goods that allow companies to know both one's purchasing and consumption habits. One's passport is already a 'clever digital certificate'. Everyone who is a member of society has a data footprint - an additional parameter within that data set indicating whether one has been vaccinated is not going to change much.

"International travel is dead until 2022, lets not kid ourselves that vaccine will sort out everything"

Sadly, I very much agree.

Another nuance of the current vaccines is that while they have proven efficacy in symptomatic Covid-19, the jury is very much out on whether they protect against asymptomatic Covid-19 - in fact the limited evidence suggests they do not. The concern around this is that a vaccinated person who suffers mild symptoms or is asymptomatic will still be infectious. Whilst this not a problem in a vaccinated population, it very much is if travelling within a vulnerable un-vaccinated one.
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Old 23rd Jan 2021, 16:44
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LeChiffre

I believe the jury is still out regarding if, and how much protection the vaccines offer in terms of transmission of the virus. Were it to be found that it does hinder or better still prevent transmission then foreign travel could open up more quickly.
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Old 24th Jan 2021, 20:06
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Is the Jury still out ?
Even the Government advisors are now begging people who have had the vaccine to keeep to the Lockdown restrictions - why ? because they still do not know wether a vaccinated person will still pass on the virus ? It will protect them but possibly not stop them passing it to others - answer things are never going to get back to normal until everyone in the UK is vaccinated. Even then other countries lagging behind who may want our tourism will still be hit because our Government probably still wont want us to go there ?

What is the answer ? when England can vaccinate 400,000 per day and that number is growing, they have vaccinated 5.8 million people so far ! Then take Scotland they have only vaccinated 360,000 in TOTAL - thats less than England in one day ? Scotland are already lagging behind. What country might you be wanting to travel to and how far behind are they ?

On top of this the Government are wanting to introduce harsher International Travel measures (announcement on Tuesday coming). Schools probably not going back until Easter, Pubs and restaurants possibly not opening until July 17th - just more nails in the Travel industry Coffin. I know the travel industry needs to survive and believe I want them to, but soon I think they are all going to have to call it a day for Summer 2021 ? It's not looking good at present unless we see a miracle.
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Old 24th Jan 2021, 21:02
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Back in July the UK rejected the offer by the EU of joining the EU's vaccination scheme, which was condemned by many at the time as putting politics before the health of the nation. The UK got in first and put in its orders which was the best move this government has made since winning the election. Maybe the only good move.

Coronavirus: Boris Johnson rejects place on EU’s vaccine scheme | The Independent | The Independent

The speed of the roll-out scheme in Europe isn't going at all well in part due to the time vaccines take to get approved, delays in putting the orders in, delays at the national level for the delivery of the vaccines and a shortage of supplies, all of which the UK seems to have avoided.

For us in the UK, to get to go on a weeks holiday in the summer on the Mediterranean, we need somewhere that will be open to the British, with high levels of vaccinations carried out and everywhere with low case numbers. Apart from Gibraltar, which has vaccinated 30% of its tiny population Europe is struggling to hit 2% at the moment. Europe needs to raise its game but in the next few weeks it isn't going to happen. The question then becomes how many airlines will get through the summer.


Last edited by LTNman; 24th Jan 2021 at 21:17.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 04:30
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Yes the EUís effort so far has been pathetic and with significant supply problems with the Pfizer vaccine, itís not going to improve in the coming months. And with the AZ vaccine not yet approved by the EMA it is even worse.

Our elected officials love to do international comparisons - vaccine nationalism doesnít help anyone. Someone show them the death figures.

Our industry cannot recover until everyone is vaccinated. It is pointless if we cannot travel anywhere outside of our own country.

Talk in the papers today about Australian style quarantines. Another nail in the travel industryís coffin. Time for monetary support - you cannot avoid this industry any longer.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 05:21
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Seriously guys, who gives a flying flip about air travel this year? Write off 2021. It's the year we were busy fighting back. We'd all be pleased just to leave the front door in our own country come Autumn (by which we should've vaccinated everyone in the country), forget holidaying.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 05:25
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Originally Posted by CW247
Seriously guys, who gives a flying flip about air travel this year?
Errr... people who rely on this industry for employment? I do find it amazing on this forum the number of people who seem to revel in people's employment being curtailed.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 05:54
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Sorry, that came out wrong. Of course that's true, its true for me too. I'm lucky I've pivoted ever so slightly to keep me going because there's no point in chasing a false dream this year.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 06:28
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So as the virus is hopefully suppressed by vaccination the Tiers will come back into force. Schools will open first with pubs and restaurants at the end of the queue but hopefully open maybe in May or June. Air travel isn’t going to come back anytime soon until it is established that those that are vaccinated cannot get infected with new variants of the virus. If they can get reinfected why would governments relax travel restrictions? Then there is the question of countries like France where half the population has said they won’t take the vaccination. So how will France open up?


Last edited by LTNman; 25th Jan 2021 at 06:41.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 06:33
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Let's be clear here (UK-centric view): this government will never again permit foreign holidays. The travel, tourism, leisure and hospitality sectors in the UK are gone for good. The freedoms which were previously taken for granted are never coming back.

There will be no state support forthcoming. All travel companies and airlines will be allowed to fail. There will be no UK aviation industry in 2022.
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Old 25th Jan 2021, 07:22
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There has already been state support for airlines. Even Hungarian Wizz received £300m and they didn’t even need the money and then there is now this

https://centreforaviation.com/analys...ate-aid-548577

Everyone is demanding state aid as though it is free money but just wait until the day of reckoning and that government debt needs to be paid off in the form of tax rises.. Let’s see if those that demand more now will be at the head of the queue to complain. How about a new tax on aviation fuel to help reduce U.K Plc debts and the doubling of APD? I guess no one likes that idea so how about raising income tax or corporation tax? A raid on pension schemes? Don’t like that either?

Last edited by LTNman; 25th Jan 2021 at 07:39.
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