Stobart Air-2

[Expressflight]

Originally Posted by DC3 Dave

But anyone with a calculator could have worked that out before signing off the deal. So why would Stobart do such a crazy thing as enter into a deal for 3 aircraft that they cannot turn a profit on?

It was the cost of leasing the aircraft from their owner that virtually precluded Flybe operating them at a profit, not it's operating cost if you are operating them as their owner as is now effectively the case.

[TartinTon]

Originally Posted by BOHEuropean

That's not true, the lease-terms ("cost of ownership") on the E195 is so high that it's not producing a profit to fly them even when full. The E175s ownership costs are fine but it does cost more to operate vs the Q400.

Err yes it is....knowing the facts mean that it's true. The E175's were purchased when Jim French got a bit carried away and he paid through the nose for them...the 195s were purchased at reasonable rates at the time but the cost of operating them was disproportionate and hence they were parked and NOT the 175s until someone saw the "opportunity" to underwrite them.

[limited_sight]

More route suspensions at SEN

Looks like that Stobart is pulling the plug earlier on some of the SEN routes. According to Flybe timetable Glasgow and Vienna end at the end of October.

Most other E95 routes (but DUB, CGN and LYS) are terminated in early January when the lease deal with Flybe ends. Looks like there will be only one E95 left at SEN from January plus possibly some wet leases for Lyon and Cologne. I had a quick look and Cologne seems to be operated by an ATR in February.

To me it looks that Stobart has generally revised their approach for own flying at SEN and this is not just about possibly moving their operations to another sales platform / franchise. The Flybe franchise may even continue.

[AirportPlanner1]

There have indeed been further changes. The revised timetable requires 2xE195s (although one doesn’t operate until 13:15) but just one ATR from January when MAN ends.

Both Cologne and Lyon are showing as E195, not ATR. Rennes moves to the evening, upgraded to an E195 every day.

Antwerp drops back to 4x weekly with Caen operating the other three days.

The previous press story stated two E195s to be moved, perhaps the plan is for the retained E195 to carry on CGN/LYS/RNS next summer until the end of the BE franchise as I’m certain DUB will cease.

I still find it odd that MAN continues until January, and hope that and possibly other domestic/regional routes continue after that date with different branding or operator.

[compton3bravo]

Not particularly good news I am afraid. Waiting what crap Messrs Brady and Jones will try to spin this time.

[DC3 Dave]

In fairness nearly all the routes announced late 2016 have survived and even better most will be operated by others in 2018. The "domestics" that followed have had mixed results but Dublin has attracted solid numbers despite operating problems. Could even surpass AMS at No 1. before that long. If Manchester does survive, then for me the gamble Stobart took will have been fully justified. The airport's future looks so much better than it did less than 2 years ago.

[ironspan]

From all the posts on this topic, it is not clear for me if Flybe (Stobart) will continue routes to smaller airports (e.g. Groningen, Caen, Antwerp, Rennes, ...) which are or will not be served by U2 or FR from SEN. I was told that load factors on these destinations are quite good with a reasonable yield. Obviously Flybe wants to avoid a fare war with the LCCs at SEN, hence they close some of the routes, as mentioned in posts earlier (the sale of their EMB195s may be the result of this route cancellation). But the ATR-routes are sustainable (under Flybe or Stobart or any other franchise set-up), unless it is too costly to keep operating a small ATR-fleet independently.
Anybody has more insight?

[Tagron]

Unfortunately there is too much speculation taking place on the basis of too little certain information. Flybe have already indicated that the final SEN schedule will not appear until late November but there seem to be knee-jerk responses to every change as it appears in the timetable.

For the record, Stobart are not selling E195s. They bought three (from Flybe's lessor), which they leased back to Flybe prior to taking them into their own fleet. So far only one has been delivered to Stobart and is in service. The second is at Exeter presumably awaiting delivery and now reportedly in an all white paint scheme. The third is due to be delivered in November . Stobart also have two other E195s which they have dry leased from Flybe. That lease is nominally due to expire next year but has early termination options. It has been expected those aircraft would be returned to Flybe as Stobart' s new E195s arrive.

[SWBKCB]

What influence do flyBe have over the franchise services STK operate from SEN?

[tophat27dt]

Originally Posted by Tagron

Unfortunately there is too much speculation taking place on the basis of too little certain information. Flybe have already indicated that the final SEN schedule will not appear until late November but there seem to be knee-jerk responses to every change as it appears in the timetable.

For the record, Stobart are not selling E195s. They bought three (from Flybe's lessor), which they leased back to Flybe prior to taking them into their own fleet. So far only one has been delivered to Stobart and is in service. The second is at Exeter presumably awaiting delivery and now reportedly in an all white paint scheme. The third is due to be delivered in November . Stobart also have two other E195s which they have dry leased from Flybe. That lease is nominally due to expire next year but has early termination options. It has been expected those aircraft would be returned to Flybe as Stobart' s new E195s arrive.

I must agree with the above and lots of people trying to read into a cloudy crystal ball holding the business secrets not available to the public domain just yet. Less speculation please, and provide only confirmed information as it is released. Thanks.

[tophat27dt]

Originally Posted by SWBKCB

What influence do flyBe have over the franchise services STK operate from SEN?

I have always wondered too, but only the top brass know the answer.

[TartinTon]

Originally Posted by SWBKCB

What influence do flyBe have over the franchise services STK operate from SEN?

Absolutely none. All the commercial risk is taken by Stobarts and therefore all route decisions are taken by them.

[bigjim99]

The E-jets will be in shamrocks for EIR soon enough I'd say.

With FR picking up at SEN, what better time to reduce the BE services. I very much doubt they'd have been profitable but did provide the cover of a 'growing' airport.

​​​​

[AirportPlanner1]

Originally Posted by tophat27dt

Less speculation please, and provide only confirmed information as it is released. Thanks.

In fairness the changes will draw speculation because of the scale of them and because they are inconsistent.

They’ve gone from the summer timetable almost replicated into winter, to some midweek flights dropping out (not necessarily abnormal), to whole routes dropping out. Then the date of routes ending shifting forward, end-dates that don’t really make sense, and constant re-jigging of some of the remaining schedule.

[virginblue]

Realistically, the whole purpose of Stobart Air SEN operation was to put the airport on the radar of the airline industry and to use it as a guinea pig. That apparently has been successful. In general, if it would be such a great idea that airports have their own airline, it would happen every where. In reality, it is not done. Admittedly, Stobart Air (now) has a much larger footprint outside SEN nowadays thanks to the Aer Arann takeover, but in the beginning it was a SEN-airline..

[SWBKCB]

Admittedly, Stobart Air (now) has a much larger footprint outside SEN nowadays thanks to the Aer Arann takeover, but in the beginning it was a SEN-airline

..

No - the Aer Lingus flying pre-dates the SEN ops by a good few years.

[virginblue]

You are right. Although Stobart Air announced its operation from SEN in early 2014 and at that point owned only 45 per cent of Everdeal, the parent company of Aer Arann, they already had a platform to operate SEN services back then (IIRC correctly, they became majority/sole owner soon afterwards) I meant to say that they built an "airline within the airline" with a separate franchise deal, newly acquired aircraft etc.

[Expressflight]

Originally Posted by TartinTon

Absolutely none. All the commercial risk is taken by Stobarts and therefore all route decisions are taken by them.

While all commercial risk is taken by Stobart for the routes it chooses to launch under the Flybe franchise it would be normal for there to be a clause in the franchise agreement allowing Flybe to veto any route for commercial reasons. Rather than launching a SEN-GLA route surely EDI and BHD would have been more logical choices to Stobart, yet Flybe operate from LCY to both and I suggest they objected to the competition that Flybe branded services from SEN to those destinations would present.

[DC3 Dave]

https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/lo...ement/78294445

Note the comment regarding the franchise operation.

[DC3 Dave]

Well I never!

Stobart Air to Operate Routes From London City Under BA CityFlyer Brand