Stobart Air-2

[EI-BUD]

STOBART

Right since Stobart went onto a Stobart Air (albeit Aer Lingus Regional branded) route, Dublin-Cardiff, and a significant route for Stobart, I could never understand how the relationship could be in tact. Stobart Air came about as a consequence of needing to drive business into Southend. That job is now done.

If any of these routes are to continue, there has to be a Loganair/bmiregional implication, again in my opinion. Loganair-flybmi grouping is a serious regional airline, who has a relationship with Stobart (/Carlisle) and also walked away from Flybe franchise. There is a linkage and of course the ending of IOM routes on Flybe behalf is in the mix. I have a sense that there is a Loganair/flybmi implication in all of this????

[shamrock7seal]

That would be a very sensible and logical consolidation

[SWBKCB]

Loganair-flybmi grouping is a serious regional airline, who has a relationship with Stobart (/Carlisle)

Anybody know how strong this link is?

CAX flights cancelled at short notice and not yet on sale again. If you were Loganair, what would be your confidence level in Stobart Group?

[shamrock7seal]

Money talks at the end of the day. If the deal is sweet Loganair will want to take it.

[SWBKCB]

And if the deal is right for Stobart and Flybe, it'll continue.

[Expressflight]

Originally Posted by DC3 Dave

You can see at a glance at the Flybe timetable that MAN and GLA are dead unless Stobart intend to announce that A N other, or Stobart themselves intend to sell the routes (can't really see that - can you?).
Other Stobart routes such as BUD and PRG and probably DUB will die only to be reborn with the leading LCC's from SEN. (This is something that Stobart deserve much praise for in my opinion.)
GRQ RNS CFR ANR. Seriously are these to end?

Someone who recently enquired of Flybe as to when the SEN Summer 2019 timetable would be released was told:

"Flights (from SEN for Summer 2019) will be introduced in phases and the complete schedule of services being flown from the airport will be released by the end of November 2018".

That statement was presumably drafted by Stobart Air for Flybe to pass on. Could "introduced in phases" mean that more than one branding of the routes may be the result? If the routes were all remaining as being Flybe branded why not release them all at once, but if another brand was going to be used for some of the routes then a phased release might make sense. I may be reading too much into this of course and only time will tell.

[SWBKCB]

But surely flyBe are only interested in their own flights - why would they make a statement referencing a phased release of flights, if these operations from SEN are going to be by other brands?

[Expressflight]

Because at present they sell the Stobart Air flights so any enquiries regarding next year will be directed to them and they have an obligation to reply whether or not they will be Flybe-branded next year.

[EI-BUD]

Here is my prediction;

1. Stobart will exit Flybe ties
2. 2x Embraers will enter into an ACMI with a network carrier
3. I think something will happen re serious commercial tie up with another regional carrier.

EI-BUD

[toledoashley]

Originally Posted by EI-BUD

Here is my prediction;

1. Stobart will exit Flybe ties
2. 2x Embraers will enter into an ACMI with a network carrier
3. I think something will happen re serious commercial tie up with another regional carrier.

EI-BUD

Have to agree with you, especially on point 1 and 2. On 3 I wouldnt be surprised if it would be Loganair and/or bmi.

[tophat27dt]

Originally Posted by EI-BUD

Here is my prediction;

1. Stobart will exit Flybe ties
2. 2x Embraers will enter into an ACMI with a network carrier
3. I think something will happen re serious commercial tie up with another regional carrier.

EI-BUD

I am pretty sure Loganair will be involved because they will operate the Carlisle operation

[caaardiff]

Originally Posted by EI-BUD

Here is my prediction;

1. Stobart will exit Flybe ties
2. 2x Embraers will enter into an ACMI with a network carrier
3. I think something will happen re serious commercial tie up with another regional carrier.

EI-BUD

Are the E195's bought outright or have they just taken over the lease that Flybe previously had? BE's issue with the E195's was the high lease cost of them. Was this a result of poor negotiations during the lease agreement stage or are E195's just generally high on leasing costs as standard? If Stobart own them outright or have agreed much lower leasing costs with the leasing company, given that many more newer similar sized aircraft are now available. Could flybe lease them once again from Stobart, but at a more economical price? I'm sure Flybe could make a couple of E195's work at certain airports.

I agree on a tie up with someone else. bmiRegional would be a good tie up. They can utilise the ATR fleet on shorter routes, reduce or phase out the E135/145 ageing fleet in favour of ATR's/Embraers. Potentially introduce E170/175 in order to upgauge some current BM routes that need more capacity. Run E195's alongside ATR's on the busier EI routes (If the Franchise continues)

[Expressflight]

Originally Posted by EI-BUD

Here is my prediction;
1. Stobart will exit Flybe ties
2. 2x Embraers will enter into an ACMI with a network carrier
3. I think something will happen re serious commercial tie up with another regional carrier.
EI-BUD

I would pretty much go along with your view. There is a very vague rumour which suggests that the 3rd E195 will remain at SEN and do something "interesting", whatever that may turn out to be.
The three E195s (G-FBEL, 'M & 'N) were bought outright by Propius, the Stobart owned leasing company, around July 2017 and leased to Flybe until Q3 2018 in a deal expected to net Stobart $9.2m over its term.

[PDXCWL45]

Would a tie in with Easyjet be a possibility? An Easyjet franchise maybe?

[TartinTon]

Originally Posted by caaardiff

Are the E195's bought outright or have they just taken over the lease that Flybe previously had? BE's issue with the E195's was the high lease cost of them. Was this a result of poor negotiations during the lease agreement stage or are E195's just generally high on leasing costs as standard? If Stobart own them outright or have agreed much lower leasing costs with the leasing company, given that many more newer similar sized aircraft are now available. Could flybe lease them once again from Stobart, but at a more economical price? I'm sure Flybe could make a couple of E195's work at certain airports.

I agree on a tie up with someone else. bmiRegional would be a good tie up. They can utilise the ATR fleet on shorter routes, reduce or phase out the E135/145 ageing fleet in favour of ATR's/Embraers. Potentially introduce E170/175 in order to upgauge some current BM routes that need more capacity. Run E195's alongside ATR's on the busier EI routes (If the Franchise continues)

Actually it was the E175s that Flybe had the issue with regarding cost of ownership. The problem with the E195s was the cost of operation which was why they were happy to have them parked up for a while down in NQY before finding some under-written work for them.

[BOHEuropean]

Originally Posted by TartinTon

Actually it was the E175s that Flybe had the issue with regarding cost of ownership. The problem with the E195s was the cost of operation which was why they were happy to have them parked up for a while down in NQY before finding some under-written work for them.

That's not true, the lease-terms ("cost of ownership") on the E195 is so high that it's not producing a profit to fly them even when full. The E175s ownership costs are fine but it does cost more to operate vs the Q400.

[brian_dromey]

I believe that a Stobart vehicle has bought the 3 E195s from their previous lessor, essentially they are stuck with them.

I have suggested elsewhere that Stobart might put their planned flights for sale via the Ryanair website but not a true franchise as with Aer Lingus or flyBe. Im sure there are a lot of reasons that Stobart may not wish to do this, but the exposure it would give STK flights would be useful and it would further Ryanair's aim of becoming the Amazon of travel.

Im not saying this is something that Stobart should do, but it would allow them to avoid having to launch an entire customer facing brand/wbesite/booking engine should the flyBe arrangement end.

[mikkie4]

that sounds like a very good idea to me

[DC3 Dave]

Originally Posted by BOHEuropean

That's not true, the lease-terms ("cost of ownership") on the E195 is so high that it's not producing a profit to fly them even when full. The E175s ownership costs are fine but it does cost more to operate vs the Q400.

But anyone with a calculator could have worked that out before signing off the deal. So why would Stobart do such a crazy thing as enter into a deal for 3 aircraft that they cannot turn a profit on?

[virginblue]

Originally Posted by DC3 Dave

But anyone with a calculator could have worked that out before signing off the deal. So why would Stobart do such a crazy thing as enter into a deal for 3 aircraft that they cannot turn a profit on?

Given that 150+ Embraer 195 are in service worldwide, it appears that it is possible to make a profit with the aircraft in principle. If flybe cannot, it does not necessarily mean that Stobart cannot as well (altough probably not with the type of operation they are currently used for).