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Stobart Air-2

Old 29th Aug 2018, 14:52
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With Brexit in mind I expect to see those 3 E195 in Aer Lingus colours and all being based in Dublin with one being used for SEN. They can operate some smaller European routes with it.

And for the ATRs they need a British airline that uses them as a wetlease from SEN. No more Flybe it seems, so why not as Easyjet... not likely to happen, but would be a better channel to sell tickets on European routes than Flybe which is hardly known on the continent.
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Old 29th Aug 2018, 15:01
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Originally Posted by koninckske
With Brexit in mind I expect to see those 3 E195 in Aer Lingus colours and all being based in Dublin with one being used for SEN. They can operate some smaller European routes with it.

And for the ATRs they need a British airline that uses them as a wetlease from SEN. No more Flybe it seems, so why not as Easyjet... not likely to happen, but would be a better channel to sell tickets on European routes than Flybe which is hardly known on the continent.
I think you're correct with 3 of the E195's going to DUB. Call me crazy but I have a feeling that Stobart will sell tickets through Ryanair for the ATR routes, similar to Air Malta and Air Europa.
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Old 29th Aug 2018, 15:10
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Originally Posted by _aax1
I think you're correct with 3 of the E195's going to DUB. Call me crazy but I have a feeling that Stobart will sell tickets through Ryanair for the ATR routes, similar to Air Malta and Air Europa.
Forgot about this Ryanair option. Doesn't sound that crazy to me. This might already be included in the deal they made with them. 5 year Flybe deal ending in March 19 and 5 year Ryanair deal starting in April 19.
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Old 29th Aug 2018, 15:45
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I know it's almost ridiculous to suggest that any airline could be a reputational risk to Ryanair, but are Stobart not really bad at the one thing Ryanair is not bad at? People have been coming back to the office after holidays and comparing notes, and the "Stobart from SEN are unreliable" penny appears to have dropped even among infrequent users of the airport!
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Old 29th Aug 2018, 15:49
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Originally Posted by koninckske
With Brexit in mind I expect to see those 3 E195 in Aer Lingus colours and all being based in Dublin with one being used for SEN. They can operate some smaller European routes with it.

And for the ATRs they need a British airline that uses them as a wetlease from SEN. No more Flybe it seems, so why not as Easyjet... not likely to happen, but would be a better channel to sell tickets on European routes than Flybe which is hardly known on the continent.
Really not sure what you mean by "with Brexit in mind" and what that has to do with anything, in particularly with having the E195s in Aer Lingus livery based at DUB ?

Someone correct me if i'm wrong, but as for the ATRs we are only talking 4 ATR72 aircraft that are currently operating under the Flybe franchise partnership - and that's including 2 at the Isle of Man base ? If anything, these ATRs would most likely be best integrated into the Aer Lingus Regional network if there was any potential for expansion there. Otherwise with no extension of the Flybe franchise in its current form looking likely and i'm presuming there being no chance of Stobart Air operating scheduled services under there own brand(?), the majority of the SEN fleet, including the E-jets will most likely become available for Ad-Hoc / Short-term ACMI business model.

Personally i could have still seen potential under the Flybe franchise partnership at SEN and even expanding opportunities elsewhere. Although with the increased competition at SEN with Ryanair arriving plus the partnership with Loganair at CAX, it's been looking all the more likely that Stobart's intentions weren't in it for the long term for some time. I'm sure all will become clearer soon anyway.
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Old 29th Aug 2018, 16:27
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So how could all this in the end affect the expected increase in passenger figures if Stobart Air themselves do stop regular scheduled flights from SEN.?
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Old 29th Aug 2018, 16:39
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Originally Posted by Cazza_fly
I'm sure all will become clearer soon anyway.
I'm sure that it will but in the meantime we are all simply too much in the dark to make detailed speculation worthwhile. I include myself in that and offer only the three generalised possibilities that I posted earlier today. Beyond those a fertile imagination can come up with an infinite number of scenarios, none of which really seem any more likely than any other. I think I'll just wait to see what facts emerge before posting further.
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Old 29th Aug 2018, 16:52
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Loganair keeps entering the discussion. One odd thing that happened with the SEN-MAN route a couple of weeks ago, apart from it going off sale beyond early Jan (which seems a strange time to pull such a route), is that the minimum price suddenly jumped to £90. Itís also not been included in the recent discount promotion.

Its operating now for between £90 and about £160 for the basic non-flexible handluggage only fare. So itís not just a case of hiking prices to deter forward bookings. Whatís interesting is that when Carlisle was on sale, £90 is the minimum fare Loganair were charging.
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Old 29th Aug 2018, 16:57
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So the inference being Loganair will stiff you?
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Old 29th Aug 2018, 18:04
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Originally Posted by mik3bravo
So the inference being Loganair will stiff you?
Well thatís one way of looking at it I guess, itís more that itís the sort of route Loganair operate, at the sort of fares they charge, and clearly there is some relationship with Stobart. Testing the outcome of higher fares to demonstrate viability, or just coincidence? One thing is for sure, it canít be to deter bookings if theyíre actually operating the flights.
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Old 30th Aug 2018, 04:16
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Originally Posted by Cazza_fly
Although with the increased competition at SEN with Ryanair arriving plus the partnership with Loganair at CAX, it's been looking all the more likely that Stobart's intentions weren't in it for the long term for some time. I'm sure all will become clearer soon anyway.
Yes Stobart ĎAirí are not in it for the long-term and even cannibalised some EI services from U.K.-Ireland to support their efforts in SEN.

also...

Isnít Flybe worried about the continuing public perception of unreliability at SEN? Iím sure the traveling public donít even know they are not actually traveling with Flybe.
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Old 30th Aug 2018, 06:26
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Originally Posted by shamrock7seal
Isnít Flybe worried about the continuing public perception of unreliability at SEN? Iím sure the traveling public donít even know they are not actually traveling with Flybe.
Maybe so but the problem aircraft are theirs!
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Old 30th Aug 2018, 06:33
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Originally Posted by 01475
I know it's almost ridiculous to suggest that any airline could be a reputational risk to Ryanair, but are Stobart not really bad at the one thing Ryanair is not bad at? People have been coming back to the office after holidays and comparing notes, and the "Stobart from SEN are unreliable" penny appears to have dropped even among infrequent users of the airport!
A chap above mentioned the Stobart ATRs on the EIR are reliable, same at SEN. Even where there have been problems itís often because theyíve been subbing for sick E195s.
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Old 30th Aug 2018, 08:03
  #234 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by shamrock7seal
Isnít Flybe worried about the continuing public perception of unreliability at SEN? Iím sure the traveling public donít even know they are not actually traveling with Flybe.
Or happy about the fact that Stobart does not dilute Flybe's "Flymaybe" brand thanks to a stellar performance....
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Old 30th Aug 2018, 09:46
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Just noted that Stobart is now operating a single ATR42-600 as the two knackered ATR42-320 are gone. What is the reason behind this oddball subtype? Is there any airport in the network that cannot accommodate an ATR72-600 with 48 pax but an ATR42-600 with the same load? Donegal with its 1.500m runway should be able to take an ATR72 and Sligo and Galway are long gone. And conventional wisdom suggests that the operating costs of an ATR72 are not much higher than those of an ATR42 so that it would make sense to sacrifice operational flexibility.
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Old 30th Aug 2018, 10:52
  #236 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by virginblue
Just noted that Stobart is now operating a single ATR42-600 as the two knackered ATR42-320 are gone. What is the reason behind this oddball subtype? Is there any airport in the network that cannot accommodate an ATR72-600 with 48 pax but an ATR42-600 with the same load? Donegal with its 1.500m runway should be able to take an ATR72 and Sligo and Galway are long gone. And conventional wisdom suggests that the operating costs of an ATR72 are not much higher than those of an ATR42 so that it would make sense to sacrifice operational flexibility.
TORA at Donegal is only 1300m due to obstacle clearance, the AT72 can't operate out of there without load restrictions (which it does when the AT46 goes tech).
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Old 30th Aug 2018, 13:53
  #237 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1
Loganair keeps entering the discussion. One odd thing that happened with the SEN-MAN route a couple of weeks ago, apart from it going off sale beyond early Jan (which seems a strange time to pull such a route), is that the minimum price suddenly jumped to £90. Itís also not been included in the recent discount promotion.

Its operating now for between £90 and about £160 for the basic non-flexible handluggage only fare. So itís not just a case of hiking prices to deter forward bookings. Whatís interesting is that when Carlisle was on sale, £90 is the minimum fare Loganair were charging.
I did a quick check today on the flybe website. It seems that the majority of SEN routes is no longer available for booking after early January and under a sort of fixed high price regime until then. What is still bookable until late March are at least DUB, Antwerp, Goningen and Rennes and these routes have lower and varying prices.
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Old 30th Aug 2018, 14:38
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What is actually bookable during March is ANR, CFR, CGN, DUB, GRQ, LYS and RNS all at normally to be expected fare levels.
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Old 30th Aug 2018, 14:41
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Originally Posted by limited_sight
I did a quick check today on the flybe website. It seems that the majority of SEN routes is no longer available for booking after early January and under a sort of fixed high price regime until then. What is still bookable until late March are at least DUB, Antwerp, Goningen and Rennes and these routes have lower and varying prices.
Caen, Lyon and Cologne are also available at reasonable fares. Six of those destinations (DUB, ANR, GRQ, RNS, CGN, CFR) are "thin" and "short" routes that are ideally suited to the ATR72 and which should not attract LCC competition with a larger jet aircraft - Dublin being the exception as far as morning/evening flights are concerned. Lyon is an oddball as it requires a faster aircraft, but probably not the capacity the E95 has. Gone without a replacement are apparently MAN, GLA and VIE, whereas PRG and BUD will be served by easyJet and Milan by Ryanair (I would not be surprised if part of a deal regarding a new base is an agreement that the airport-owned airline must not serve routes in competition with based airlines if these do not agree to a complementary service). What I find surprising is that MAN appears to face the axe as it allowed for helpful domestic connections.

All in all, this is far from Stobart axing its SEN base. I also sense more opportunities, e.g. on the ANR route should VLM go under at LCY, or to BRN that is now unserved from London as a result of Skywork's insolvency. However, the ATR network from SEN will always be rather small as there are not a lot of destinations within the type's ideal range that have potential and are not served from STN and/or LCY (stuff like MST, FMO has already been tried unsuccessfully).
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Old 30th Aug 2018, 16:28
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I love your positivity virginblue, but a short while back Stobart were giving it large about delivering domestic flights for both business and leisure users. Ok, it may be the right decision to axe MAN and GLA, but they said they were in it for the long term. Apparently not. And if SEN - MAN or GLA can't be made to work, exactly what chance does SEN - CAX have next year?
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