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Join Date: Dec 2000
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What with that and the daily Amsterdam going to A350s it looks as if that aircraft will be Singapore's choice of equipment for slightly thinner routes to Europe in the future. As such I would guess that MAN-SIN going direct will depend on A350 availability and it's priority against other similar routes. Presumably the operating costs would be sufficiently reduced versus the 773 to make it a profitable thing to do.
Join Date: Nov 1999
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it does beg the question of if they can find the way to do 3 weekly A350 to DUS and daily to AMS, whether the level of F or J sales at MAN is too low and/or the amount of freight carried is too much to "relegate" it to the A350. They released the seat config for the A350 and it's 42 business class, 24 premium economy and 187 economy for a total of 253 passengers - their flights here have approx 155 passengers on board but we don't know what the available capacity is here.
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Apparently the new Shaheen flights to Islamabad can be booked if you phone the specialist travel shops that are mostly found in the Rusholme area.
They hope to have Manchester and EMA bookable on the Shaheen Air website in the next few weeks.
They hope to have Manchester and EMA bookable on the Shaheen Air website in the next few weeks.
Join Date: Nov 1999
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October was 4%- I've calculated November and December combined need 1.56% increase for the 23 million mark to be achieved.
The blurb that's been released gives Man Utd being in the champions league this year is being seen as one of the contributors:
"Football related flights also contributed to the increase in charter flights, including trips to Bournemouth and fans flying in from Dublin. "
Looking at the fixtures, there are 4 champs league games to count for Utd and City.
The blurb that's been released gives Man Utd being in the champions league this year is being seen as one of the contributors:
"Football related flights also contributed to the increase in charter flights, including trips to Bournemouth and fans flying in from Dublin. "
Looking at the fixtures, there are 4 champs league games to count for Utd and City.
Join Date: Jul 2007
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OCT. Stats.
If the figures are total including transit, the increase is 3.6% and if it's only Terminal pax, it's 3.9%.
Must say I was expecting a rather higher increase given new services by Vueling, Austrian and IBS plus the TCX flights to the US.
Based on Ringwayman's figures, we should hit 23m comfortably for the calendar year, but I suppose we shouldn't take anything for granted.
j636 wrote:
"Great to see MAN release stats to media but not bother updating their website since August"
I assume the info. was from North West Business Desk. The web site 'Press Releases' page hasn't been updated for the story either, as well as the Traffic Statistics section.
If the figures are total including transit, the increase is 3.6% and if it's only Terminal pax, it's 3.9%.
Must say I was expecting a rather higher increase given new services by Vueling, Austrian and IBS plus the TCX flights to the US.
Based on Ringwayman's figures, we should hit 23m comfortably for the calendar year, but I suppose we shouldn't take anything for granted.
j636 wrote:
"Great to see MAN release stats to media but not bother updating their website since August"
I assume the info. was from North West Business Desk. The web site 'Press Releases' page hasn't been updated for the story either, as well as the Traffic Statistics section.
Join Date: Sep 2002
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I've calculated November and December combined need 1.56% increase for the 23 million mark to be achieved.
we should hit 23m comfortably for the calendar year, but I suppose we shouldn't take anything for granted.
1) MAN has already lost a considerable amount of passenger throughput due to weather-related cancellations and diversions away during early November. MAN's unique "just say no" policy relating to inbound diversion requests means that this deficit is only very marginally offset. The airport has accepted a small number of LBA divs outside the worst-affected period. Any recurrence of similar adverse weather conditions during the remainder of the calendar year will seriously dent MAN's chances of surpassing the 23M-barrier unless the diversion policy is revised to take common sense into account.
2) Package holiday sales. November is the first month of the Winter IT programme, and the one which demonstrates the relative strength of the package holiday market for the period through to the end of April. How much additional capacity is actually on offer versus the equivalent season one year earlier? What is the customer take-up of this capacity? The November stats are crucial in determining whether this sector will be a driver of growth or a drag over the six month Winter period.
Unfortunately, the leisure sector has got off to the worst possible start this season with tourism to Egypt following Tunisia into the abyss. The need to re-plan Winter IT programmes to avoid Egyptian resorts has come at the worst possible time ... the very start of the season itself. Will the large tour operators be able to fully redeploy capacity into alternative safer markets in time? Or will the Egyptian capacity be lopped off tour programmes and not wholly offset by increases to other destinations?
3) Industrial action. Lufthansa has already cancelled a large number of MAN flights due to strike action during early November. This problem is ongoing. Some passengers will complete their journeys via alternative carriers. Others will cancel trips completely or seek alternatives such as video-conferencing. Forward bookings on strike-bound carriers also suffer as consumers have little confidence that their travel needs will be fulfilled on the day.
In the big scheme of things, problems such as these occur at the margins. But when we're concerning ourselves with marginal statistical changes such as a couple of percentage points of additional growth in throughput, headwinds of this sort can play a significant part in the eventual outcome.
Fortunately, MAN only requires growth of 1.5% - 2% to achieve the 23M target by year-end. That sounds 'doable' but we must remain mindful of the setbacks to be overcome. Tackling the self-inflicted wound - No.1 in the list above - would be a helpful start. Replace the blunt-instrument "don't even call us" policy with "we will consider each case on its own merits in a rational manner as befits a well-managed airport business." And enhance MAN's tarnished reputation within the industry as an added bonus.
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Fortunately, MAN only requires growth of 1.5% - 2% to achieve the 23M target by year-end. That sounds 'doable' but we must remain mindful of the setbacks to be overcome.
However, given that the ACL winter report for MAN showed an increase in seats of 9.7%, there would seem to be a reasonable amount of room for such offsets and still achieve 23m, unless load factors take a dive.
On diversions, I'm sure I read a while ago that pax are attributed to the intended destination airport and not to the airport where the flight diverted. If true, I'm not sure whether it only applies to 'splash and dash' diversions or to pax unload diversions as well.
Edit: I see eye2eye5 has now made the point. Can you clarify if it applies to all diversions, irrespective of whether pax are dispersed at the alternate.
Join Date: Sep 2002
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eye2eye -
I believe that the stats quoted by 'North West Business Desk' are those reported by MAG themselves, ie. not the numbers produced by the CAA.
The methodology employed by the CAA in compiling passenger statistics makes sense in terms of the way their data is used for market research. The CAA is interested in 'aviation intelligence' ... identifying underlying market trends. Quantifying the number of passengers booking seats on a particular route, assessing the economic viability of routes and carriers. Diverted passengers distract from the usefulness of data compiled for the primary purpose of economic analysis. If the CAA, or a party using their data, wish to evaluate the economic performance of a route such as MAN-HEL, then throwing in a random widebody diversion or disregarding three days worth of flights which diverted elsewhere due to weather can only distort the value of that data as an analytical tool. Correctly calculating underlying demand for the route is a far more useful statistic for this purpose than a post-disruption random number count.
Airports own stats are produced with different priorities in mind. How many passengers actually used the airport in reality? How much was collected in user-charges? How does this correlate to spending in the shops and restaurants on site? Are terminal facilities closely matched with real levels of demand? For them, it is important to record the actual number of customers through the door rather than recalculating what the revised total might have been under ideal conditions.
The CAA stats and those produced by airports almost never tally. The airport versions produce the most accurate assessment of actual passengers through the door. The CAA numbers offer the best data-set for analysing underlying business trends with random chance anomalies (such as diversions) filtered out. The value of each approach to data assessment is clear in the light of how the numbers are subsequently used by different interests.
MANFOD - I agree with you that a forecast 9.7% increase in seats suggests a generous contingency to mitigate negative setbacks. For the record, I do expect MAN to successfully achieve the throughput required to surpass 23M during this calendar year. Nevertheless, we do need to be mindful of setbacks. It would be unsurprising to me if the number of passengers forfeited as a result of last weeks weather disruption represented 1% of potential November throughput in the final reckoning. 1% is is roughly 8 hours worth of an average day's traffic. We saw mass cancelation of the FlyBe programme, plus cancellations from KLM, BAW and others over approximately three days. And very little in the way of incoming mitigating business. The scale of lost passenger flows to Egypt remains to be quantified, but we are talking about a staple winter-sun destination heavily-promoted by the leading tour operators. The Lufthansa issues are smaller scale but unresolved and ongoing. All these factors must be taken into account in our calculations. They will erode away a proportion of the contingency which MAN is relying on for growth.
In answer to your 'splash and dash' question, I don't know how MAN accounts for these passengers. Clearly they don't pass through the terminals. And presumably no per head fee is levied for use of the terminal facilities?
I believe that the stats quoted by 'North West Business Desk' are those reported by MAG themselves, ie. not the numbers produced by the CAA.
The methodology employed by the CAA in compiling passenger statistics makes sense in terms of the way their data is used for market research. The CAA is interested in 'aviation intelligence' ... identifying underlying market trends. Quantifying the number of passengers booking seats on a particular route, assessing the economic viability of routes and carriers. Diverted passengers distract from the usefulness of data compiled for the primary purpose of economic analysis. If the CAA, or a party using their data, wish to evaluate the economic performance of a route such as MAN-HEL, then throwing in a random widebody diversion or disregarding three days worth of flights which diverted elsewhere due to weather can only distort the value of that data as an analytical tool. Correctly calculating underlying demand for the route is a far more useful statistic for this purpose than a post-disruption random number count.
Airports own stats are produced with different priorities in mind. How many passengers actually used the airport in reality? How much was collected in user-charges? How does this correlate to spending in the shops and restaurants on site? Are terminal facilities closely matched with real levels of demand? For them, it is important to record the actual number of customers through the door rather than recalculating what the revised total might have been under ideal conditions.
The CAA stats and those produced by airports almost never tally. The airport versions produce the most accurate assessment of actual passengers through the door. The CAA numbers offer the best data-set for analysing underlying business trends with random chance anomalies (such as diversions) filtered out. The value of each approach to data assessment is clear in the light of how the numbers are subsequently used by different interests.
MANFOD - I agree with you that a forecast 9.7% increase in seats suggests a generous contingency to mitigate negative setbacks. For the record, I do expect MAN to successfully achieve the throughput required to surpass 23M during this calendar year. Nevertheless, we do need to be mindful of setbacks. It would be unsurprising to me if the number of passengers forfeited as a result of last weeks weather disruption represented 1% of potential November throughput in the final reckoning. 1% is is roughly 8 hours worth of an average day's traffic. We saw mass cancelation of the FlyBe programme, plus cancellations from KLM, BAW and others over approximately three days. And very little in the way of incoming mitigating business. The scale of lost passenger flows to Egypt remains to be quantified, but we are talking about a staple winter-sun destination heavily-promoted by the leading tour operators. The Lufthansa issues are smaller scale but unresolved and ongoing. All these factors must be taken into account in our calculations. They will erode away a proportion of the contingency which MAN is relying on for growth.
In answer to your 'splash and dash' question, I don't know how MAN accounts for these passengers. Clearly they don't pass through the terminals. And presumably no per head fee is levied for use of the terminal facilities?
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CAA stats
Shed, having spent half my life collating and analysing data for a large Global Corporate, I understand the rationale quoted. However, the difference between CAA and in house statistics should be relatively nominal. A few diversions will make little difference in the grand scheme of things.
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eye2eye - The point is we're not talking about the grand scheme of things in this specific discussion. We're talking about the fine margins required for MAN to hit a named passenger target within a specified time-frame (ie. 23M by calendar year-end). The unmitigated loss of 1 - 2% of November throughput is significant in that context. Weather-related cancellations play a more significant role than diverted traffic. However, I'd still back them to hit that 23M number before December 31st in the absence of further disruption.
Join Date: Jul 2007
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October stats.
The press release is now in the M.E.N.
The best figure was the increase in freight of 14%.
Football fans drive October passenger boom at Manchester Airport - Manchester Evening News
Not sure the football traffic would be as significant as the new routes, especially CX
The press release is now in the M.E.N.
The best figure was the increase in freight of 14%.
Football fans drive October passenger boom at Manchester Airport - Manchester Evening News
Not sure the football traffic would be as significant as the new routes, especially CX
Not sure the football traffic would be as significant as the new routes, especially CX
Both are probably living up to the mantra "never let the news get in the way of a good headline" (OK - it was "story" in the original quote).
Join Date: Aug 2007
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Football Traffic
I guess they are seeing the football traffic as bonuses. United were not in Europe last season but this season they have played 6 games in Europe including the qualifying rounds. For a home game, you will have away fans and 'home' supporters flying in. My guess is that this would be maybe around 6,000 fans, maybe more. For away games then maybe 3,000 will travel ex-MAN. So in total that's maybe 54,000 flights by fans over and above last season allowing for departures and arrivals.
That assumes no additional demand for City games as City were in Europe last year and no additional demand for Liverpool games as Liverpool will surely generate demand for trips through MAN.
Games have been in September and October so it's added maybe around 27,000 pax per month on average. Compare that to the increase in pax over and above 2014 and I can see where the headline comes from.
That assumes no additional demand for City games as City were in Europe last year and no additional demand for Liverpool games as Liverpool will surely generate demand for trips through MAN.
Games have been in September and October so it's added maybe around 27,000 pax per month on average. Compare that to the increase in pax over and above 2014 and I can see where the headline comes from.
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So in total that's maybe 54,000 flights by fans over and above last season allowing for departures and arrivals.
Firstly, United had only played 5 games up to the end of October. The 4th match in the group stages was last week in November.
Secondly, not all United fans would fly out of MAN. The fan base is widely spread!
Thirdly, not all away fans would fly into MAN. They may find cheaper fares to another airport and travel on by train.
Fourthly, depending on the location of the opponents, not all fans would necessarily fly.
The number of additional charter flights for matches so far has been relatively
small, although I accept some supporters will use normal scheduled flights.
I've no doubt United and away fans made a useful difference to the Sep & Oct pax figures but not as decisive as being claimed. In any case, with an increase of less than 4% in October, I would like to think new and existing services were the main contributors. The additional pax in October were 73,000 or 78,000 depending on whether the figure stated was comparing total or terminal pax. If 27,000 of it was due to extra football traffic, the underlying growth would be rather disappointing compared to earlier months.