I've calculated November and December combined need 1.56% increase for the 23 million mark to be achieved.
we should hit 23m comfortably for the calendar year, but I suppose we shouldn't take anything for granted.
Fingers crossed that the airport will achieve the 23M barrier by calendar year-end. However, when we're working on such fine margins to achieve the necessary increase, a number of factors need to be taken into account.
1) MAN has already lost a considerable amount of passenger throughput due to weather-related cancellations and diversions away during early November. MAN's unique "just say no" policy relating to inbound diversion requests means that this deficit is only very marginally offset. The airport has accepted a small number of LBA divs outside the worst-affected period. Any recurrence of similar adverse weather conditions during the remainder of the calendar year will seriously dent MAN's chances of surpassing the 23M-barrier unless the diversion policy is revised to take common sense into account.
2) Package holiday sales. November is the first month of the Winter IT programme, and the one which demonstrates the relative strength of the package holiday market for the period through to the end of April. How much additional capacity is actually on offer versus the equivalent season one year earlier? What is the customer take-up of this capacity? The November stats are crucial in determining whether this sector will be a driver of growth or a drag over the six month Winter period.
Unfortunately, the leisure sector has got off to the worst possible start this season with tourism to Egypt following Tunisia into the abyss. The need to re-plan Winter IT programmes to avoid Egyptian resorts has come at the worst possible time ... the very start of the season itself. Will the large tour operators be able to fully redeploy capacity into alternative safer markets in time? Or will the Egyptian capacity be lopped off tour programmes and not wholly offset by increases to other destinations?
3) Industrial action. Lufthansa has already cancelled a large number of MAN flights due to strike action during early November. This problem is ongoing. Some passengers will complete their journeys via alternative carriers. Others will cancel trips completely or seek alternatives such as video-conferencing. Forward bookings on strike-bound carriers also suffer as consumers have little confidence that their travel needs will be fulfilled on the day.
In the big scheme of things, problems such as these occur at the margins. But when we're concerning ourselves with marginal statistical changes such as a couple of percentage points of additional growth in throughput, headwinds of this sort can play a significant part in the eventual outcome.
Fortunately, MAN only requires growth of 1.5% - 2% to achieve the 23M target by year-end. That sounds 'doable' but we must remain mindful of the setbacks to be overcome. Tackling the self-inflicted wound - No.1 in the list above - would be a helpful start. Replace the blunt-instrument "don't even call us" policy with "we will consider each case on its own merits in a rational manner as befits a well-managed airport business." And enhance MAN's tarnished reputation within the industry as an added bonus.