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Old 9th Aug 2010, 19:57
  #1721 (permalink)  
 
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In contrary, FR tends to abandon the apts trying to discontinue their marketing support. If my suspicions are right, it might be the case in Tours, France. All flights there just became unbookable after the end of August, am I right?
Tours is normally always a peak season summer only destination for Ryanair, operating between May/June and August/September. I can't ever remember Ryanair operating there during the winter.
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Old 9th Aug 2010, 20:48
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Looking forward to when MOL crashes and burn's ........ 2012 given current fiscal EEC cutbacks and the impact that has on pax spend

Crap product and a marketing approach that will run out of steam.

I vote with my feet and refuse to use them

Dance on a company's graves? I hate queues
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Old 9th Aug 2010, 21:16
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Tours is normally always a peak season summer only destination for Ryanair, operating between May/June and August/September. I can't ever remember Ryanair operating there during the winter.
Ryanair do operate from Tours during the winter.

London-Stansted, Marseille and Porto operate during the winter. Dublin operates March - October.

The routes were boookable after August but now they are not but they sitll show as operating.
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Old 9th Aug 2010, 22:53
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2012

Not sure what you're basing your 2012 forecast on CYM. So far Ryanair appear to be holding up very well during this horrendous downturn for aviation.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 06:36
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Everyone is entitled to vote with their feet in fact 70m are voting with their feet this year and booking with ryanair. I am sure they will really miss your booking
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 06:38
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What does sitll mean?
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 06:46
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Well, there are some airports that are doing extremely well thanks to Ryanair. Like Lappeenranta. It must be kind of Guiness World Record, presumably. According to YLE, after Ryanair and Air Baltic started flying there the traffic in LPP rose some 320.000% (6403 pax in July 2010 versus just 2 in July 2009). Indeed Ryanair's LF is close to 100% there. Very promising as the vast majority of pax comes from Russia.

But elsewhere FR seems being able to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs. Discontinuing the extremely popular and high-priced TMP-AGP for the Winter, still attractive season for the Nordic pax? Unbelievable! Also BGY gone.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 07:05
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fact 70m are voting with their feet
Most people are on return trips so thats 35m. trips.
Those who use Ryanair will do so many times per year, esp those working away from home or will a 2nd home. It is very likely that ryanair have only 15m different pax per year who do an average of 5 sectors a year.

For each one the airline upsets they lose on average 5 sectors.

2012 may be a very hard year with a large rise in fuel costs, workers upset with pay freeze and extra airport taxes.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 07:16
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befree

Even if your statistical guesses are correct, the fact that numbers are growing indicates that more are joining the Ryanair users club than leaving it. Its down to simple economics - price matters.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 10:36
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The "ryanair users club" size could grow 20% driven by expansion and agressive capture of market share but if total costs rise more that total income the airline can become loss making.

Economics is never simple and lots of frims have expanded too much only then to fail big time.

The storm is coming and it may be those who go via FR will be hit the most.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 17:08
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The "ryanair users club" size could grow 20% driven by expansion and agressive capture of market share but if total costs rise more that total income the airline can become loss making.

Economics is never simple and lots of frims have expanded too much only then to fail big time.

The storm is coming and it may be those who go via FR will be hit the most.
Afraid this is more phoney analysis attempt at pushing your desire for FR to fail.

Time and again they have proven over last 10 years that they have an ability to move quickly in changing the face of aviation.

This laughable storm you desire somehow will only hit the company who has the most cash in the bank and not hurt those who are struggling already just to stay afloat.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 17:41
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I agree with racedo -Ryanair has proved the sceptics wrong time after time after time. Its business model is of course based on Southwest in the USA and it has been going strong for even longer.

The prophets of doom obviously want to rid the market of low fares so that we go back to hundresd of pounds for what I can now get from Ryanair, all costs included, for 10-20% of that.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 17:44
  #1733 (permalink)  
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The storm is coming and it may be those who go via FR will be hit the most.
Befree I have to thank you every time you come on here you have me rolling on the floor, with your miss information Ryan will still be here in ten years time HA HA HA
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 19:01
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you all may not like my analysis but how is ryanair going to make a significant profit in 2012 onwards?

What will the cost per pax be?
what will the income per pax be?
how many pax will they carry and at what load factor?

If you cannot do the analysis then it is you who are making the guessing.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 19:14
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I suggest Ryanair has some able people who are in possession of the facts as opposed to speculation and idle gossip, whose job it is to look ahead several years and plan accordingly e.g taking account of no new plane orders.

No doubt you would like to see the end of Ryanair - who would you target then?
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 22:16
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you all may not like my analysis but how is ryanair going to make a significant profit in 2012 onwards?

What will the cost per pax be?
what will the income per pax be?
how many pax will they carry and at what load factor?

If you cannot do the analysis then it is you who are making the guessing.
You are not even making an attempt at analysis rather throwing a few quotes in and hoping nobody spots it.

FR currently running aircraft carrying approximately 300,000 passengers each per year which even at an average current fare of €39 plus €11 ancillary gives them every asset generating €15 million a year over a 6 year life span plus inflation thats €100 million. On an asset that costs €30M to buy, even adding in fuel, maintenance, staffing you would expect each aircraft to give you €15 Million net over a 6 year life span in profit and a hell of a lot of cash before selling it on for a tidy sum.

As for the idea that passengers are disappearing well far from it, the movement of aircraft across Europe has built in lots more routes and users and while UK and Ireland are in recession now they won't always be and will clearly desire more opportunities to travel again which just reopens more routes

Problem FR face in 2014 maybe that they haven't enough aircraft to sustain demand.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 22:19
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Monday - 16 August - Madrid

Dur to Baggage Handlers Strike in Madrid on Monday the 16 August Ryanair will not be accepting checked baggage on all flights to/from Madrid. This is to prevent flight delays and cancellations.

Madrid Baggage Handlers Strike ? Monday16th August

Not sure if any other airlines are effected
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 22:45
  #1738 (permalink)  
 
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Its business model is of course based on Southwest in the USA
Oh please. If Southwest was a rock star, it would be constantly fighting paternity suits to prove that it has no relationship to the masses claiming to be its offspring.

A few of the key and fundamental differences:

1/ Since day 1, Ryanair has operated its 737s at maximum seating density. Southwest takes two rows out of each aircraft to increase legroom.

2/ Ryanair charges for baggage - many would say unreasonably so given the hike in peak season baggage fees. Southwest is one of the few US carriers *not* to charge for this - with up to two free bags - despite the fact that the legacy carriers have begun to do so.

3/ Southwest accepts unaccompanied minors, cargo, pets, offers senior citizen fares, has a frequent flyer scheme, doesn't whack you with added charges which are several times higher than the initial fare display, manages its boarding process without recourse to customers' elbows....

4/ Southwest has active engagement programmes with its employees...which happens to include union recognition.

Ryanair does what it does, and has a unique Marmite effect - you either love it or hate it. However, if I was Southwest (which I'm not), I'd not be happy that my reputation was being subjected to comparisons with airlines - of which Ryanair is one of many - which bear no resemblance to the product that I provided.
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Old 10th Aug 2010, 23:22
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Ryanair does what it does, and has a unique Marmite effect - you either love it or hate it. However, if I was Southwest (which I'm not), I'd not be happy that my reputation was being subjected to comparisons with airlines - of which Ryanair is one of many - which bear no resemblance to the product that I provided.
Got to be at least 10 years ago but Business Week did a piece on Herb Kelleher, Colleen Barrett and MO'L and Southwest duo were more than happy to accept the kudo's for helping Ryanair, Easyjet, GO and loads of other operators get on their feet.

BW Online | May 14, 2001 | Renegade Ryanair

Had posted some stuff I remember from article but found it and worth a read even 9 and a bit years on.
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Old 11th Aug 2010, 07:29
  #1740 (permalink)  
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I think some people should stop trying to work out ryanair ops costs and picking random numbers up. Why not leave it to the professionals, i'll leave you with a good starting point.

FT.com - Markets Data
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