Aer Lingus - 5

[Just a spotter]

According to reports, EI were already in the process of replacing speed sensors across their fleet with the outstanding 330's to be modified this week.

Aer Lingus to replace air-speed sensors on long-haul planes - National News, Frontpage - Independent.ie

JAS

[Skipness One Echo]

Should they want to grow and stay sustainable they need to get out of Ireland. I'd say they'll set up a couple in Britain

HOWEVER, and this is why people think I'm negative (!).....

The cost of setting up Belfast was quite high, base expected to lose money for a period in a new market. Couple that to the riskier move into the Orange Fortress at Gatwick and the already busy London market, profits from here are some way off. Add the current cut throat climate to that, and then suggest adding a new base somewhere in Scotland not threatening an existing Ryanair base.

Perceived wisdom, which is frequently utter rubbish in real life anyway, says that ALL airlines need to grow to survive. This is true of Ryanair and their business model coupled to massive expansion tied into aircraft orders and trading. I can think of a lot of airlines that have been here for years, continue to flourish and look like good bets to survive the current storm AND are not involved in a massive growth frenzy.

There is WAY too much air travel anyway. We don't need all the airports we have and proper investment in a core set of airports would be better for everyone. However we want airfares that cost less than the taxi home so don't expect anyone to listen to my "John the Baptist" moment here. Are Lingus are not involved in sustainable growth, Gatwick is an opportunistic bet that may or may not work. Belfast was always on the cards, outside of that, the UK is already OVERSERVED with airlines and choice.

Globespan survived ( and are prospering )in Scotland once they got out of the over served STN / LPL bases and the insane dash for long haul. Aer Lingus couldn't do the same in Ireland?

We are being presented with a fait accompli that says that Aer Lingus CANNOT survive on Ireland alone without adequately explaining as to why not. There are some good examples of airlines that do serve their home markets exceptionally well and live on, the temptation here is to imagine a load of green tails on the South Terminal at LGW with A330s serving London- New York ( the most competitive route imaginable at the best of times ) is the answer. People, I think you got the question wrong before you arrived at this answer.

[colegate]

I include below the Aer Lingus press release announcing their planned expansion at Gatwick
"Since launching its first international base outside of Ireland at Gatwick in April this year, Aer Lingus is set to fulfil its promise of more routes with six new destinations being added to its current schedule.

Aer Lingus will introduce Bucharest, Eindhoven, Tenerife, Lanzarote, Warsaw and Vilinus for winter this year. Its current flights to Dublin, Faro, Knock, Malaga, Munich, Vienna and Zurich will continue, but Nice will cease during the winter months. With the addition of these new routes, the airline will operate 118 round trips a week.

Aer Lingus Corporate Affairs Director, Enda Corneille, says: "Aer Lingus' European destinations are still proving to be a huge hit with our customers. Since our first launch back in April, we have sold over 400,000 flights and counting.

"To give our customers a greater choice in destinations, we've introduced six new routes which are popular to travellers during the winter months - perfect for anyone looking to escape the British winter.

"We are still competitively priced, as well as making life a little easier for customers with free allocated seating, self service check-in kiosks, web check-in and onboard service that puts our competitors to shame!"

The six new destinations are on sale from today, 9th June, and will be available for travel from the 25th October with the exception of Vilnius, which commences on the 10th September."

You surely have to have a sense of humour to understand the absurdity of the phrase perfect for anyone looking to escape the British winter. To Eindhoven, Warsaw, Vilnius? Nice is an excellent winter destination but it is to cease. Go to Eindhoven instead?

I do not believe this press release was even checked by the person to whom it is attributed. What you say in a press release is a statement of company policy. Did the author even know where Eindhoven is?

I have worked out the load factor that results from 400,000 bookings so far at Gatwick. It is about 40%.

I have estimated that EIN losses at LGW this year will be about 20 Million euros. This press release will put up those losses to around 30 million. The cash loss next winter will be horrendous.

But I am thinking of buying EIN shares just so that I can challenge them as an interested party.

[chipsbrand]

I am intrigued by the speculation that Aer Lingus might put an A330 into Gatwick possibly to operate to NYC. It is a fact that no airline has ever sustained scheduled service flights between Gatwick and New York. BCAL, Laker, BA, Continental, Delta, Virgin, are examples of airlines that have failed on this route. Maybe Aer Lingus have a secret that has eluded all these companies. I would love to know what it is. If they attempt this route the losses will be horrendous. It will be like asking a drain how much money it wants to take out of your wallet.

[dubh12000]

Would there be any sense in them trying a 330 on a W pattern, with either Dub or Snn, to NYC first?

[racedo]

We are being presented with a fait accompli. Aer Lingus CANNOT survive on Ireland alone. There are some good examples of airlines that do serve their home markets exceptionally well and live on, the temptation here is to imagine a load of green tails on the South Terminal at LGW with A330s derving London- New York ( the most competitve route imagineable at the best of times ) is the answer. People, I think you got the question wrong before you arrived at this answer.

Got it pretty much right. It seems like last throw of the dice hoping it will work while burning cash like crazy and not tackling the root cause of why its losing money. There is an element of if we show we are an international airline then maybe someone other than FR will buy us. Wonder are EI Dublin based Pilots going to be flying the routes.

[davidjohnson6]

Looking at the fares that EI is charging on its new routes from LGW over the winter, it seems that EI has decided to avoid the bargain basement route and charge enough money so as to be able to make a profit from its punters. Pile 'em high and sell 'em cheap is not the impression I get !

[TartinTon]

davidjohnson6 Looking at the fares that EI is charging on its new routes from LGW over the winter, it seems that EI has decided to avoid the bargain basement route and charge enough money so as to be able to make a profit from its punters. Pile 'em high and sell 'em cheap is not the impression I get !

Looking at the EIN route they couldn't have got it more wrong if they have tried. £0,00 fares UK-EIN Mon - Thu and £9.99 Fri-Sun. Obviously going after the weekend leisure market for which Eindhoven is so reknowned..... bunch of cowboys.

[flying_shortly]

I think any A330 destination that EI go for should be a route that does not exist at Dublin. That way they could have Irish pax fly to GTW and travel onwards ensuring decent load factors.... A lot of Irish do it anyway so why not have a greater route selection that way... Maybe they could take the plunge and try out Canada, South Africa or Australia...

[Skipness One Echo]

Gatwick to Bankruptcy with Aer Lingus

- Gatwick-Eindhoven (daily)
- Gatwick-Warsaw (daily)
- Gatwick-Bucharest (daily)
- Gatwick-Lanzarote (3x/wk)
- Gatwick-Tenerife (4x/wk)
- Gatwick-Vilnius (daily)

That's good news!

Eindhoven on an A320 is insane, simple as.
Lanzarote and Tenerife are familar winter destinations so in line with some degree of focus.
Warsaw is contracting as the economy drops and the Polish influx b***ers off back to Poland.
Bucharest. Romania in Decmeber, blimey, that'll have 'em packed in.
Vilnius, unless you see the advert for this somewhere, no one going here from London is going to look at Aer Lingus.

If they were focussed on Ireland - UK and Ireland - European capitals with one end at least being a mature home market, AND flew smaller aircraft like A319s, I could see them doing better. I look at this and it looks more like naivety rather than incompetence. Desperarion perhaps, and I'm a FAN of Aer Lingus (!)

[merchant sailors]

Not sure why EIN was chosen, but looking from outside in, is there a potential link between Phillips HQ in EIN and South London?

This might be a factor in the choice for this route but not entirely sure.

On another side, there are still gaps in the UK regions where EI could make "hay". Examples would be potential non FR base airports.

Excluding LHR, there are at least 5 airports with over 2 million pax where FR does not yet have a base.

[Finknottle]

I am intrigued by the speculation that Aer Lingus might put an A330 into Gatwick possibly to operate to NYC. It is a fact that no airline has ever sustained scheduled service flights between Gatwick and New York. BCAL, Laker, BA, Continental, Delta, Virgin, are examples of airlines that have failed on this route. Maybe Aer Lingus have a secret that has eluded all these companies. I would love to know what it is. If they attempt this route the losses will be horrendous. It will be like asking a drain how much money it wants to take out of your wallet.

US Visa regulations were recently relaxed for Eastern Europeans in the EU and there is now a whole new market there to be exploited. My guess is that AerLingus will be looking to link up the Bucharest, Vilnius and Warsaw flights with the LGW-NYC route.

[A319-100]

I am not so sure that Edinburgh could be a base for Aer Lingus as both Ryanair (31 routes) and easy have a fairly significant presence. All that said using their recent modes of thinking that is probably exactly where they will set up a base

[flying_shortly]

US Visa regulations were recently relaxed for Eastern Europeans in the EU and there is now a whole new market there to be exploited. My guess is that AerLingus will be looking to link up the Bucharest, Vilnius and Warsaw flights with the LGW-NYC route.

But that could already be done through Dublin and you could get security vetted before even leaving Europe. I'd say that's a risky plan of action. It has to be a route that appeals to the local crowd at Gatwick. I think attracting the Irish crowd via Gatwick is the best plan. Maybe hooking up with an Asian carrier with a desireable destination there with links to Australia would be a sure bet I think. Maybe a carrier in Thailand for example?

[tigger2k8]

as mentioned a few posts above about 2-stop trips

BFS is in need of more routes to America... wonder if EI is looking at a LGW-BFS-USA/Canada?

not only would the above link N.I to more destinations over the big pond... but wouldnt it allow people from BFS to fly to LGW then transfer to other destinations (havn't researched the LGW destinations, but im sure theres a few different ones than LHR offers)

ofcourse it could be risky operating such a route during the winter, but surely during summer it could be worth it?

[northumberlandairway]

Five airports with more than 2 million pax. Perhaps NCL?

Ryanair have happily abandoned the place to the more up market locos and the flag carriers of KLM / AF, Lufty, BA and EK. Ryanair have recently cut the number of flights to DUB to the point that it is proving difficult to actually get there from North East England now.

Look at NCL route map and you will see whole chunks of Europe unserved. There is a very definite gap in the market. The region is crying out for decent links to Germany, Eastern Europe and northern Italy. The people who study demographics seem to have a very blinkered view of the northern end of England and I am certain once they realise that not everyone keeps coal in the bath, races whippets and wants two weeks in Palma, then you could justify a base serving proper cities.

There is obviously no love lost between NCL and Ryanair, perhaps EI could rekindle some Irish romance?

[akerosid]

I think that until EI decides its future on long haul, any bets on expansion are off. I don't for a moment expect that it would give up long haul, but I can see some significant trimming back. I don't see long haul from LGW or BFS happening anytime soon.

I'm interested to see whether the A350 order survives the current fleet review. The current plan is to have a fleet of six -900s, no -800s. Now, the A359 in current EI config will seat close to 400, not far off the old 747's capacity but the comparison to the 747 is relevant in another way; how do you innovate on new routes with an aircraft of that size? It seems quite likely that EI could end up being pushed back into three core routes (ORD, BOS and JFK) and goodbye to the likes of SFO, IAD and particularly, any long haul outside the US.

Sure, the world economy will have recovered by the middle of the next decade, but other airlines, flying smaller aircraft, will be in a much better position to benefit from this, particularly in an Open Skies environment.

Personally, I think that an aircraft of the 787's size, 250-300 pax, would probably be a better choice for EI and offer it the potential to expand its North American network - and beyond.

[airhumberside]

BFS is in need of more routes to America

Does it. I would have thought the last thing BFS should be doing at the moment is creating competition for CO

And if its more Orlando or Canada BFS needs then Im not sure Aer Lingus is the place to look

[BFS101]

Certainly don't think BFS requires any more scheduled routes to the USA, maybe with the exception of Orlando, to complement FlyGlobespan. Recent statistics in regard to CO however show robust figures (April):

Newark from Belfast up 23% (at 9869) compared with 2008. For some comparison:
EDI 9468,
BHX 9087
GLA 9075
BRS 8031.
The only Continental EWR services carrying more passengers than BFS in the UK was MAN and LHR.

The worst thing that could happen in my eyes, is to dilute the traffic, CO to then pull the service, and end up with only a non-direct flight, the likes of via Shannon, and to have much poorer connection options at NYC.

Zoom always seemed to have good loads and provided year round service. A good reliable service to Toronto, Orlando and summer Vancouver may be sustainable. Although Zoom went bust, would have been interesting to see if the BFS services were profit making, they added capacity to BFS which makes me think it was successful at the time. Coupling BFS with a similar UK airport like Cardiff or Newcastle for Toronto or Vancouver was a good move I think, and at least the BFS flight was non-stop

[flying_shortly]

Could Gatwick to Bangkok or Phuket be done with an A330? I think that would be a great route to have especially if you could hook up with the likes of JetStar through Aer Lingus's website for onward travel to Australia....