Aer Lingus - 5

[racedo]

Reason is that anybody who takes over AL needs to make it pay and cutting out a lot of fixed employee costs helps straight away. Yup its a year 1 hit but in year 2 your business has massively reduced fixed overheads i.e. people and a lot more variable can be added reduced at will. Maintenance can be done at one or two centres but does anybody believe LH will keep maintenance services in all its countries ?

AL transatlantic complements FR as going forward you can clear everything in SNN and soon DUB, could always do Emigration but Customs and US DA have been added on. AL doesn't have the ability or network to increase that but you can see FR doing lots of flights to SNN/DUB with AL taking them across the pond and FR flights pushing them home.

[racedo]

Can you really see Aer Lingus ( Ryanair ) at LHR for long sitting on the slots that are worth a small fortune? This policy is incoherent but they don't care as it's no secret what FR really want to do to EI.

You stop at SNN on way from the US and get bags cleared plus do immigration and land 2 hrs later at LHR as a domestic passenger with no delays or queues and likewise going back.

[Skipness One Echo]

are they a low cost Airline, A European Airline, A transatlantic Airline, A domestic airline, or a national carrier.

They clearly are a former national carrier, a European airline, a transatlantic airline, and domestic airline. Like BA but with more loco aspects and much less business focussed. They can be almost as confusing as BMI on a bad day, but trying to adapt, and still here.

It's not THAT confusing come on.

You stop at SNN on way from the US and get bags cleared plus do immigration and land 2 hrs later at LHR as a domestic passenger with no delays or queues and likewise going back.

Yes but one day I'm sure you'll be able to fly from London without stopping in good old Shannon. Imagine that (!)

Also racedo, Aer Lingus are EI, not AL. That's an Eastern Bloc freight airline.

[daz211]

If we are getting picky !

AL = Transavia Exports based in MINSK Belarus from 1992-current .

[racedo]

Yes but one day I'm sure you'll be able to fly from London without stopping in good old Shannon. Imagine that (!)

But while you have the Immigration / Customs and USDA clearance at LHR then it makes sense to use them.

Its unlikely in the short term that this would spread as every country would want it then and US may not want to pick up the cost.

Ireland had some friends on Capitol hill who helped out.

[Skipness One Echo]

But while you have the Immigration / Customs and USDA clearance at LHR then it makes sense to use them.

Don't be silly. The Heathrow - US market is incredibly competitve market, and stopping off in Shannon is not competitive and it's still quicker to join the queue for immigration in the US !

[racedo]

Don't be silly. The Heathrow - US market is incredibly competitve market, and stopping off in Shannon is not competitive and it's still quicker to join the queue for immigration in the US !

Define competitive as if Irish Govt decides to charge minimum tax on transatlantic flights then adding in extra 90 minutes on flight and saving money PLUS immigration and customs time can make a huge difference both ways.

Same flight from SNN & LHR to JFK in Jan and return Feb hits £338 with BA and £304 with EI.. Get rid of the TAX from SNN and starts to become very competitive.

Add in through ticketing with Jet Blue.

[daz211]

And scrap the fuel charge this will make the fare look alot more attractive
when booking.

But then again that might be seen as letting MOL get his way and we cant have that can we "god help us".

[bear11]

So, what options do EI have, then - anyone? And, by the way, I am working on the assumption that we are well over the SIPTU fantasy that the Irish state will buy it back (presumably at the price before the stock market tanked so the lads can make a few bob and pilots have a pension, plus re-annex SRT/TEAM). And then of course it could compete as an Irish flag carrier with all the reformed super airlines in Europe and presumably the rest of the world when Open skies comes in. Right - glad that's all sorted in time for Christmas, then.

EI due to RYRs proximity is evolving into a green RYR due to having to match their costs. In order to expand, they are bringing a brand to markets like Romania who have never heard of them before and who think the name means something to do with licking (ask any Romanian). As for longhaul expansion, the only precedent we have to date is (or was) Dubai - enough said. RYR have a strategic 30% of the shares, so EI are boxed off from being sold to someone else in any case.

Who would come along any way instead and snap it up? Air France/KLM? Nope, they're in Dublin already with CityJet as a feeder. BA? Oh, God, can't have the Brits take it plus the slots over, and they're a bit busy planning world domination with QANTAS/Iberia anyway. LH? Same as BA, except trying to take over the other side of Europe at the minute - if they're too busy to look at SAS, what chance does the Shamrock stand? In any case, all three of those carriers would reduce EI to a feeder for LHR/CDG/FRA/whatever, and the long-haul would be gone, so they would probably sell or take the famous strategic LHR slots.

Personally, I'd like to nominate the Italians, I think Alitalia and EI have a lot in common, none the least of which is a bunch of interfering politicians, most of whom need shooting.

[Shamrock350]

And scrap the fuel charge this will make the fare look alot more attractive
when booking.

But then again that might be seen as letting MOL get his way and we cant have that can we "god help us".

Taking away the fuel surcharge would leave a one way flight to IAD at just EUR103 all in which is very attractive but is it profitable?

A few weeks ago a fare to IAD without the surcharge would have been less than EUR80 all in so it's easy to sell flights cheaply if you can make money elsewhere but you can't do it as easily on long-haul like you can short-haul. I hate the way Aer Lingus call it a surcharge but they need to make money and really should just merge the fuel surcharge with the base fare so passengers see less charges but still pay the same fare.

[waffler]

Yes I have, why dont the spotters f off back to their x boxes and spare us their ill informed opinions of how their neighbours and their customers should lose their jobs to make a multi millionaire even richer.

[dublin_eire]

Silverstreak said:

Just a question, in this dire economic crisis we all find ourselves in...

Why shouldnt MOL buy EI? Hes clearly doing something right and has the cash to expand. EI are not in such a stable financial position.

Airlines are downsizing, merging, being taken over and going to the wall... Whats the difference in general terms of LH buying bmi or MOL buying EI... NONE.

For goodness sake. NO one can afford to knock back an offer these days. Shareholders, governments and employees alike. Its happening all over the world... CONSOLIDATION!

Who would have thought, Easyjet buying GB from BA...

Just thought I'd let you know Silverstreak that you've been quoted in the Irish Independent today....

Here's the link:
Pilots divided on desirability of €748m takeover - National News, Frontpage - Independent.ie

[racedo]

Yes I have, why dont the spotters f off back to their x boxes and spare us their ill informed opinions of how their neighbours and their customers should lose their jobs to make a multi millionaire even richer

So whats you solution then.

[EI-AAA]

Q&A

On Questions and Answers last night after a discussion if it would be in the countries interest for FR to takeover EI, John Bowman asked the audience with a show of hands to show what they thought. Asked to vote if anyone thought it would be a good idea, not one member of the audience put their hand up. Telling snapshot about how the country feels?

[Lord Lardy]

A poll on today Irish Times website portrays a similar picture. What people need to think about are Telecom in the 90's, Aer Lingus in the 80's, ESB and Bord Gais today. Competition is what's needed, not dominance. What's to say your 'free flight' to Malaga in two years times dosen't come with a 30 euro credit card charge, a 40 euro check in charge, taxes and charges with three digits. I know I exaggerate slightly but this is a very realistic prospect with an airline dominating potentially over 85% of the total aviation market in the country. No one can deny that Ryanair changed aviation in Europe and put it up to most airlines and their fares but do we really want to go back to those days again where there was one choice, with a single option of take it or leave it?

Aer Lingus will more than likely be subject to a take over at some stage in the future. From a consumer point of view people should be hoping it's an airline/airlines that will challenge Ryanair and their so called 'low fares' and not become part of something that will damage air travel in Ireland for years to come.

[leeds 65]

I agree with earlier posters.Unfortunately aer lingus are in a real grey area.They are not legacy and not low cost(even though they try).The fact remains - too many people in the company getting paid to do next to nothing.Its a real civil service mentality - unions(similar to alitalias - howryas with no real acumen or foresight having countless coffee mornings and lavish brunches),blind ignorance to changing market trends and slow to change business style( I hope needless overtime is not being handed out easily)

I like Aer Lingus and i dont think they will be takin over due to other significant stakeholders unwilling to sell.Ryanairs stake however must not be overlooked and if aer lingus are struggling in 2 -3 years time, then competition authority or not ryr will get the green light.But who knows ryr may not be here in 3 years given this industrys turbulance!

[daz211]

Right now to the real world, if MOL fails in his bid what will happen
to EI ? Everone forget who your batting for and think hard.

How much money can an Airline keep losing ?
How much money must an Airline have in resurve to survive the downturn ?

If everone on here sat back and looked at this takeover with no
slagging and open minds calling FR (a) and EI (b) in black and white
the take over should go ahead as far as the books show (a) is a
stronger company than (b) and out of the two (b) is in a weaker position
to get through the aviation downturn.

I am not saying AerLingus wont or should'nt weather the storm
before you all have a go at me its just a realistic overview of two companies in a tough industry.

[ryan2000]

Ryanair monopoly

Surely it makes more sense to merge with a major alliance other than Ryanair if only to ensure competition from Ireland. Other wise Ryanair incorporating Aerlingus will have 75% of Dublin traffic and probably close to 90% of a grip on Cork. Shannon is already almost totally dependent on them for short haul scheduled flights

[Nocti]

DAZ211,

What makes you think that Ryanair are in a better position that Aer Lingus?

Standards and Poor have recently made two statements regarding both companies - One saying that Aer Lingus were seriously undervalued and were a BUY; In relation to Ryanair they have questioned the suitabilty of their financial model in a recessionary market.

Aer Lingus are disposing of two aircraft next year - one sold and one returned to the leasing company. Ryanair will have nearly sixty aircraft surplus to reqirements. Who's better placed to ride out a recession?

[daz211]

Ryanair will open more routes AerLingus will cut routes simple
and it wont be anywhere near 60 A/C, with new routes and new
bases Ryanair is a much stronger Airline.