Ryanair - 6
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Load factor con
Ryanair has just updated the stockmarket claiming a 90% load factor. This is overstated as the count every seat booked flown or not. The percentage of people who fly when they have only paid £10 for a seat booked x months ahead must be well below 100%. The other trick is that only count seats that are avalable to book in load factor. Where they are limiited to say 140 pax on a 186 pax plane they use the 140 pax. They could cheat by making more seats unbookable on very early or late flights. Does anyone know how many sectors were flown by RYA in August? Then we can work out the availabe seats for sale compared to real seat on planes.
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Some of the airports have limited seat availability due to the landing performance of the aircraft on a short runway or the PCN of the runway or ramp. Where that is the case extra seats can't be made available earlier or later and the LF is based on the seats available.
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This is overstated as the count every seat booked flown or not.
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fivejuillet, unbiased? You're probably the most pro Shannon poster on this forum. There are undoubtedly more than 3 routes in trouble at Shannon. For example: - East Midlands - loads are simply disastrous. 42% for example in the peak month of August. - Prestwick - has been struggling with loads ever since Shannon-Edinburgh was launched - Liverpool - passenger numbers aren't really high enough to justify a daily service. - Beauvais - from what I've heard loads are okay but yields are desperate, given the sector length. Yields have got worse since Air France launched SNN-CDG. -At least one of the Polish routes. From October Ryanair will have 4 routes to southern Poland. This just isn't sustainable given the slow down of the Irish economy, with lots of Poles returning to Poland, or moving to other EU countries. Katowice and Krakow for example are just 90 minutes away from each other. - Berlin. I know someone who travelled on the route and loads were fairly poor. Fares are also rock bottom whenever I've looked. At one point it was just €1 including all taxes. For a route of this length, theres no way this could be profitable.
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You're being very pedantic. You need to look at the routes as a wider picture over a much longer period of time than you actually are. You're only bringing EMA to light as in recent times loads have suffered as a result of Cork-EMA, same with PIK.
BVA has a sector length the same as SNN-STN, 75mins. It is one of the best performing routes ever operated from Shannon with nearly 350,000 pax pa.
BVA has a sector length the same as SNN-STN, 75mins. It is one of the best performing routes ever operated from Shannon with nearly 350,000 pax pa.
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Well, I accept that Beauvais has been quite a performer for snn down the years and certainly in terms of load and very likely in yield as well a lot of the time but can it be expected to continue in the climate of a significantly worsening economic downturn in Ireland? These new conditions will surely deter the weekenders from some of their trips abroad and along with the added CityJet/AF three daily services from CDG some dimunition of market share and yield must be expected by Ryanair in the winter months ahead?
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Boeing's machinists went on strike today, seeking improved pay and job security as the planemaker benefits from record orders and tries to keep its 787 Dreamliner schedule from slipping further.
Boeing will deliver planes completed prior to the strike and won't assemble any others during the walkout, spokesman Healy said. Last night, Ryanair Holdings Plc, Continental Airlines Inc. and Alaska Air Group Inc. each had two 737s visible at Seattle's Boeing Field, a base for making deliveries.
Boeing will deliver planes completed prior to the strike and won't assemble any others during the walkout, spokesman Healy said. Last night, Ryanair Holdings Plc, Continental Airlines Inc. and Alaska Air Group Inc. each had two 737s visible at Seattle's Boeing Field, a base for making deliveries.
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SNN-Beauvais
fivejuillet, 350,000 per annum????? You obviously don't know what you're talking about. The route only operates once daily. That means total annual capacity is 137,970. (i.e 365 days per years, 189 seater plane, return trip - 365*189*2), and thats not even allowing for Christmas day etc. when flights don't operate. As for blaming poor loads on the East Midlands and Prestwick routes on Cork, those routes were doing badly before Cork-EMA and Cork-PIK were ever started, starting the routes from Cork has just made things worse. Looking at the CAA sats for November 2007 for example (the month before Cork-EMA and Cork-PIK were launched), SNN-EMA carried 5,476 passengers (a 48% load) meanwhile SNN-PIK carried 5,581 passengers (a 49% load). You shouldn't be making statements unless you can back them up with figures. As for saying SNN-Beauvais has the same flight time as SNN-STN, I've never travelled SNN-STN but I have travelled ORK-STN and that has a flight time of between 55 and 60 minutes depending on the weather. Its very surprising that you say that SNN-STN has a flight time of 75 minutes as I would have thought ORK and SNN would be a similiar distance from STN?
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I never mentioned flight time- it is block time.
In this instance I do not think it is I who does not know what they are talking about! I will say no more seeing as anything realistic (and true) I say is deemed false
In this instance I do not think it is I who does not know what they are talking about! I will say no more seeing as anything realistic (and true) I say is deemed false
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en2r is correct, 350,000 passengers is off the wall. to be achieving this level of passengers on the Shannon/Beauvais route there would need to be almost 3 flights a day in each direction.
Fivejuliet, where do you get your information on Passenger number for Shannon routes to the continent? These are not published, well not officially? IAA dont release this sort of information, however, such information would be great. The CAA in the UK do publish Uk/Ireland so we can get sight of this information.
EI-BUD
Fivejuliet, where do you get your information on Passenger number for Shannon routes to the continent? These are not published, well not officially? IAA dont release this sort of information, however, such information would be great. The CAA in the UK do publish Uk/Ireland so we can get sight of this information.
EI-BUD
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FR delayed flights
Future 737NG pic(?)
I don't know the specific answer as to why FR flight were worse effected, I think the reason may partly be that they schedule much more tightly than most of the other airlines. ie shorter turnaround times. EI do short turnarounds on alot of flights but on a lot of european flights the turnaround can be as much as an hour and same for LHR. So I would suspect that Fr find it much harder to catch up once the schedule gets behind.
I don't know the specific answer as to why FR flight were worse effected, I think the reason may partly be that they schedule much more tightly than most of the other airlines. ie shorter turnaround times. EI do short turnarounds on alot of flights but on a lot of european flights the turnaround can be as much as an hour and same for LHR. So I would suspect that Fr find it much harder to catch up once the schedule gets behind.
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Shannon musings
Shannon is an interesting case because it crops up time and time again (often in FR's own communications) as an FR base that is struggling.
Irish passenger stats can be found here:
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Dial...irings/&lang=1
The stats show that FR carried over 1.6M pax to and from SNN in 2007. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that FR have managed to reach this level of traffic at SNN at all, given that the airport doesn't exactly lie in a massively populated catchment area.
SNN-BVA carried 94K pax in 2006 (72% flown LF) and 99K pax in 2007 (74% flown LF). The route was well inside SNN's top 10 by LF. The best loads were on the routes to Poland, LGW, AGP and MJV. The worst were on some of the regional UK routes. Interestingly, SNN's overall average LF for 2007 appeared to be broadly in line with that of LPL and MAD and was better than PIK.
I find it difficult to imagine that Shannon has just a handful of routes that cause the entire base to be loss-making, however, I may be wrong.
Shannon currently has 33 FR routes (STN, CRL, BVA,PIK, LPL, EMA, GRO, NRN, BGY, LGW, BRS, NTE, AGP, MAN, WRO, MJV, BIQ, CCF, FAO, KRK, TSF, EDI, BHX, LTN, FUE, TFS, ALC, PMI, SXF, LCJ, KRK, KTW, TRN), 6 of which operate in Summer only.
Shannon also has a long list of dropped routes (10 so far: NYO, LBC, HHN, CIA, BOH, DUB, KUN, RIX, MAD and LBA). LTN and LCJ have already been dropped once and then re-started. So FR have launched 43 routes from SNN and binned 10, giving a 23% dumper rate, which is roughly double the FR average.
What would worry me if I were in FR's shoes is the question where any future growth can come from at SNN. It seems to me that there are very few obvious destinations that haven't already been tried: The UK is covered, except perhaps for the North East, which hasn't been a particularly happy hunting ground for FR so far, key destinations in the major European markets (Germany, Italy, France and Spain) have all been tried with varying levels of success, the one excursion to Scandinavia (NYO) didn't work, Poland is covered (and no longer appears to be a growth market).
Where is left? BUD and BTS might work, BHD might be worth a go, MLA might get some help from the Maltese authorities, the likes of PSA, MRS and REU might be ok in Summer, but now I'm really scratching my head ... Is this as good as it gets for Shannon or can FR somehow conjure up more routes to push their passenger numbers at the airport past the 2M per year mark?
Irish passenger stats can be found here:
http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Dial...irings/&lang=1
The stats show that FR carried over 1.6M pax to and from SNN in 2007. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that FR have managed to reach this level of traffic at SNN at all, given that the airport doesn't exactly lie in a massively populated catchment area.
SNN-BVA carried 94K pax in 2006 (72% flown LF) and 99K pax in 2007 (74% flown LF). The route was well inside SNN's top 10 by LF. The best loads were on the routes to Poland, LGW, AGP and MJV. The worst were on some of the regional UK routes. Interestingly, SNN's overall average LF for 2007 appeared to be broadly in line with that of LPL and MAD and was better than PIK.
I find it difficult to imagine that Shannon has just a handful of routes that cause the entire base to be loss-making, however, I may be wrong.
Shannon currently has 33 FR routes (STN, CRL, BVA,PIK, LPL, EMA, GRO, NRN, BGY, LGW, BRS, NTE, AGP, MAN, WRO, MJV, BIQ, CCF, FAO, KRK, TSF, EDI, BHX, LTN, FUE, TFS, ALC, PMI, SXF, LCJ, KRK, KTW, TRN), 6 of which operate in Summer only.
Shannon also has a long list of dropped routes (10 so far: NYO, LBC, HHN, CIA, BOH, DUB, KUN, RIX, MAD and LBA). LTN and LCJ have already been dropped once and then re-started. So FR have launched 43 routes from SNN and binned 10, giving a 23% dumper rate, which is roughly double the FR average.
What would worry me if I were in FR's shoes is the question where any future growth can come from at SNN. It seems to me that there are very few obvious destinations that haven't already been tried: The UK is covered, except perhaps for the North East, which hasn't been a particularly happy hunting ground for FR so far, key destinations in the major European markets (Germany, Italy, France and Spain) have all been tried with varying levels of success, the one excursion to Scandinavia (NYO) didn't work, Poland is covered (and no longer appears to be a growth market).
Where is left? BUD and BTS might work, BHD might be worth a go, MLA might get some help from the Maltese authorities, the likes of PSA, MRS and REU might be ok in Summer, but now I'm really scratching my head ... Is this as good as it gets for Shannon or can FR somehow conjure up more routes to push their passenger numbers at the airport past the 2M per year mark?
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fivejuillet, the point is that you haven't said anything realistic or true. You seem to have plucked the 350,000 pax per annum figure for the Beauvais route out of thin air, and the facts presented by Anna List show that the route carried over 250,000 less passengers that you claimed. You blamed ORK-EMA for poor figures on SNN-EMA but as I highlighted in the figures above, the route was struggling before ORK-EMA was ever launched. You also claimed that SNN-Beauvais had the same sector length as SNN-STN. This just isn't true. If you look at the Ryanair website you'll see that SNN-Beauvais is advertised as taking 100 minutes, while SNN-STN is advertised as taking only 75 minutes. MOL has publically stated that Shannon is just one of two bases in the entire Ryanair network that is loss making. With the current price of oil, and the current economic condition, I can't see Ryanair continuing with this for much longer. It is inevitable that the loss making routes will have to be reduced/axed. I think a lot of Shannon supporters like fivejuillet are still in denial about this.
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Cork and Ryanair
Annalist thinking could also apply to Cork although it would probably support a few more routes than Shannon. Therein lies the reason why the CAA are under no pressure to deal with Ryanair.
The fact is that almost all of the viable short haul routes from Cork are already serviced by Aerlingus, Aer Arann and a handful of overseas airlines. Most of these are on full charges so why would Cork give Ryanair the kind of deal they're looking for if its only going to dilute their existing business.
The only way for Ryanair to get control of Cork is to meet the opposition head on. ie. Cork to Beauvais, Gerona, Ciampino, Murcia, Malaga and Faro would put it up to Aerlingus while EDI, BRS, NTE would put RE under pressure.
This would involve paying full charges.
A 2nd strategy would be to avail of Cork's existing incentive scheme and fly to destinations such as Milan, Biarritz, Pisa, Charleroi and Hahn. This would indirectly put pressure on the opposition as it would dilute their loads and yields due to the limited size of the Cork Catchment area.
The existing strategy of calling hyped up press conferences and attacking CAA/DAA isn't working.
The fact is that almost all of the viable short haul routes from Cork are already serviced by Aerlingus, Aer Arann and a handful of overseas airlines. Most of these are on full charges so why would Cork give Ryanair the kind of deal they're looking for if its only going to dilute their existing business.
The only way for Ryanair to get control of Cork is to meet the opposition head on. ie. Cork to Beauvais, Gerona, Ciampino, Murcia, Malaga and Faro would put it up to Aerlingus while EDI, BRS, NTE would put RE under pressure.
This would involve paying full charges.
A 2nd strategy would be to avail of Cork's existing incentive scheme and fly to destinations such as Milan, Biarritz, Pisa, Charleroi and Hahn. This would indirectly put pressure on the opposition as it would dilute their loads and yields due to the limited size of the Cork Catchment area.
The existing strategy of calling hyped up press conferences and attacking CAA/DAA isn't working.
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en2r, excuse me, I am full sure I am not "in denial" 
The published flight time as advertised by Ryanair is padded to allow for delays, the block time for crew is exactly the same for both STN and BVA, varying perhaps by 5 minutes. The whole point of mentioning sector length etc was that someone pointed out that BVA was "unprofitable for its sector length". Unfortunately the 350k pax figure I had in my head was from a Ryanair memo a year ago stating that the said figure had been carried since its inauguration.
The attitude of the "Cork supporters" indicates that any flight operating into Cork is not/and could not be affected by the economic climate, oil prices etc! There is just as much a chance of routes from Cork, not nessecarily Ryanair being culled in this instance as there is Shannon
The published flight time as advertised by Ryanair is padded to allow for delays, the block time for crew is exactly the same for both STN and BVA, varying perhaps by 5 minutes. The whole point of mentioning sector length etc was that someone pointed out that BVA was "unprofitable for its sector length". Unfortunately the 350k pax figure I had in my head was from a Ryanair memo a year ago stating that the said figure had been carried since its inauguration.
The attitude of the "Cork supporters" indicates that any flight operating into Cork is not/and could not be affected by the economic climate, oil prices etc! There is just as much a chance of routes from Cork, not nessecarily Ryanair being culled in this instance as there is Shannon
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FiveJuliet - perhaps your account has been hacked, but you are in a state of violent contradiction.
Wrong
SNN STN 392 mi 1.20 mins 3.05 minutes return block time
SNN BVA 530 mi 1.40 mins 3.45 minutes return block time
Proven wrong.
Not deemed false -proven false. Throughout this thread people are pulling you up on false statements you make.
BVA has a sector length the same as SNN-STN
SNN STN 392 mi 1.20 mins 3.05 minutes return block time
SNN BVA 530 mi 1.40 mins 3.45 minutes return block time
It is one of the best performing routes ever operated from Shannon with nearly 350,000 pax pa.
I will say no more seeing as anything realistic (and true) I say is deemed false
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Cawley in Tampere
Last Friday, Ryanair's Michael Cawley has visited Finland. In Tampere he said he was very satisfied with Ryanair routes to Finland (everywhere a standard sentence I guess), especially with German and Bergamo routes - and indeed they've been running excellent. After the upcoming upgrade of the Terminal 2 he sees Tampere as one of the new FR bases. Next year will bring a couple of new routes to Tampere and one of the destinations (not announced yet) will most likely be in Central-Eastern Europe (Poland, Czech Rep., Slovakia or Hungary).
I think many routes to CE-Europe could succeed, however in none of the countries mentioned there are FR bases as yet (and W-pattern is rare at FR). Ryanair enthusiasts (quite a few here) discussing the issue favour destinations like Berlin and diverse in Southern Europe.
¨
I think many routes to CE-Europe could succeed, however in none of the countries mentioned there are FR bases as yet (and W-pattern is rare at FR). Ryanair enthusiasts (quite a few here) discussing the issue favour destinations like Berlin and diverse in Southern Europe.
¨
Last edited by pee; 8th Sep 2008 at 07:49.
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Eu01 "for me it's one more illustration of how ill-prepared the route planning at Ryanair is. Please correct me, if I'm wrong"
Eu01...your right...Having just loaded 7 x Wchr and 1 x assistance dog with its own EU pet passport, plus 2 x Blind and several special needs this morning...Mad Mick has got it wrong on this one
If they are to attract the Pilgrims on the LDE route, then they will have to remove the "only 4 PRM " from their terms and conditions and charging £100 for their own oxygen... unless they want a court battle for discrimination against these peoples human rights !
As for 25 minute turn arounds and we don't use jet bridges....come on.
I think the corporate types in Dublin must have been seduced by the route assist... rather than looking at the actual pax profile on this route.
Eu01...your right...Having just loaded 7 x Wchr and 1 x assistance dog with its own EU pet passport, plus 2 x Blind and several special needs this morning...Mad Mick has got it wrong on this one
If they are to attract the Pilgrims on the LDE route, then they will have to remove the "only 4 PRM " from their terms and conditions and charging £100 for their own oxygen... unless they want a court battle for discrimination against these peoples human rights !
As for 25 minute turn arounds and we don't use jet bridges....come on.
I think the corporate types in Dublin must have been seduced by the route assist... rather than looking at the actual pax profile on this route.