IRELAND WEST AIRPORT KNOCK

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There is a huge market from the north of england to the west, but how many of these have been travelling to manchester? But the flight does well at the moment but its bound to feel the strain when all this begins. Maybe they can hope Aer Arann stop from Galway and baby would have the whole the region. It would be interesting to see if EI would be in a position to step in if needs be.

I think the airport are very warey of fr and the damage they can do to competition, but in the end they bring in the numbers and revenue.

I guess the next step for knock would be the continent, but the question is who would be brave enough to chance it?

[840]

The problem for Aer Lingus is that they don't have aircraft based in Manchester or Knock. That doesn't rule it out; some Manchester-Cork services have operated as W-patterns out of Dublin in the past. However, it does make it less likely.

Until Aer Lingus open another overseas base (and I don't think that will be soon considering the state of the company's finances), I'd be surprised if they offered more Knock services.

If they were to look at W-patterns, a more interesting option might be to offer a connection to an international hub. At the moment, that service is just not available in the north-west and there must be some level of market for it.

[globetrotter79]

If WW did pull the MAN-NOC for whatever reason, I'd guess that Jet2 would be the more likely ones to do this.

Remember that they have a relative lack of short sector flying ex-MAN (lack of domestics or ROI routes) so one would assume that they'd jump at the chance of doing this if the opportunity arose.

I am sure this fact is also not lost on the management both of MAN and NOC airports...

[sawtooth]

I heard Jet2 were on the verge of launching a NE route from a couple of years ago but it never happened (NCL?)

If they can retain the current routes then UK market is well served from NOC now, in a better economic climate they might be able grow frequency on some routes and possibly sustain EDI with the right carrier/aircraft. LHR will never happen unless under some sort of PSO scheme.

NOC should focus on securing a daily hub connection like CDG to aid long-haul and business access to the NW (Cityjet seem to be doing well with 2x SNN). AMS & MUC/DUS might offer potential also, Ireland had a big inbound Germany/Dutch tourist market in the past but it would require the support of tour operators with strong marketing (Falcon have operated a summer Avro service from ZRH for several years, fishing package holidays I think).

They've done well to maintain their sun charter routes with the loss of XL and several tour operators. I'd say there's demand for weekend break destinations like FCO, BCN. Ryanair could do a couple of rotations weekly like current ALC, but probably a long way off unless they decide to use NOC as a stick to beat SNN.

[EI-BUD]

All interested parties want to see Aer Lingus succeed at Knock. The loads have been quite good, but we dont really know about the yield which obvioulsy is very important.

If Aer Lingus axe Gatwick it is most unlikely that any other airline will come in and fill the void. Could Knock Airport management try to secure the LGW route long term by offering Aer Lingus favourable charges for another route to be operated as a W pattern ex Knock (ie LGW machine go on to say Manchester, Birmingham or wherever?) (ie if baby defected?)

What about a few flights a week on Knock/Malaga? Knock/Girona???
Any thoughts?


EI-BUD

[Based]

If Aer Lingus axe Gatwick it is most unlikely that any other airline will come in and fill the void.

You never know what will happen with the Knock - Gatwick route seeing it's been operated by Easyjet, Ryanair, XL and Aer Lingus in the past 5 years!

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I would think twice weekly flights to one or two holiday destinations would work, why not? I'm under the impression that a lanzarote flight operated through the winter at some point (not sure how it worked out).

The Gatwick service is in its fourth month and it will take time for the route/airline to establish themselves on the route (EI are only new to LGW too).No doubt yield has taken a hit but it is early days and the route is maturing. Would think a BA codeshare would probably improve the routes prospects.

Of course a connection to a major hub such as AMS would most definitely be welcome to the region as there is no such service. I guess with cat II up and running its opening the doors to new airlines like EI and maybe some new faces and destinations.

But again we are in a recession; let’s not get ahead of ourselves

[anna_list]

A few observations on Knock

Hi,

The new NOC-ALC route appears to have got off to a pretty decent start in terms of loads: 81% flown LF in June, followed by 92% in July. I haven't been watching the yields though. Personally, I would have thought that there is a very good chance that both ALC-NOC and ALC-LDY will be back next summer.

In my view, the current situation on the London route (2x daily FR to STN, 1x FR to LTN and 1x EI to LGW) is unsustainable. Here are the CAA stats for the last 20 years to show why I believe this is the case:



Until 2005, the number of passengers on the London route only once exceeded 150,000. Although roughly 50% more passengers were using the route in the early 2000s compared to the late 80s and early 90s, it is possible that Ryanair were deliberately restricting growth to milk the yields.

Then in 2005 Easyjet opened NOC-LGW, FR retaliated and the ensuing fares war sent the market crazy with over 350,000 passengers in 2006. Of course, this could never last, and U2 and FR both pulled off Gatwick in 2006. Then XL had a go on Gatwick and now EI are trying too.

This year will probably see almost as many passengers on the London route as in 2006. The current level of capacity far exceeds the historic 'natural' size of the market and sooner or later I suspect that something will have to give. Enjoy it while it lasts.

[iwak]

I think the lgw route is here to stay .Both ezy and fr had good loads on the route but obviously overcapacity at two daily.Ezy would have made the route a success only for Fr driving them off it.

XL were not a well known brand which didnt help the situation.

Ltn and Stn are still performing well considering the economic climate and the arrival of the lgw route.This tells me there is a good solid passenger base using these routes and are not just reliant on low fares to attract the leisure passengers.People using these routes want to travel to Knock and are not just travelling because of low fares and the want of a random break away.

I see Fr have reduced the stn route to 9 services a week for the winter so again this will help the Lgw route. I honestly think that Aer Lingus will make the route a success.Against 3 services from Ryanair and a Recession Aer Lingus achieved a 70% load factor from the start and 76% for the month of july,pretty good in my book!

[iwhak]

iwak....yes it's a new route. Load factors are only ok, considering it is the national brand, and it is peak season, recession apart. However, a route has to perform all year round and even now looking at forward pricing I suspect the yield is rock bottom. When FR roll out their winter 1c specials I fear for EI for the coming winter. Don't be fooled, majority of pax now travelling if fare is cheap, and for no other reason unless they have to! Market is not big enough for a full daily scheduled service to both MAN and LBA. Reason no carrier has made a success of LGW is yield, volume was always pretty good. Someone suggesting Arrecife for winter, not a hope, already oversupply ex ORK, DUB, SNN since FR announced it last month, tour operators struggled with yield during peak season for last few years even at peak season, that's the reason there are so few charters ex NOC this year. I'm not a NOCCER (sic) just don't want ya gettin carried away!

[iwak]

You say the market is not big enough for man and lba to co exist but yet ema and bhx co exist for over 2 years . I wouldnt like you to be running Knock airport it would be at a standstill with no new routes and passenger numbers in decline.

Knock is one of the few airports that will maintain passenger numbers if not get marginal growth this year and you dont get that from existing routes only.

[iwhak]

Iwak....the point I am trying to make is that business development must be sustainable. A lot of money has been thrown at a lot of routes out of NOC that have not been viable. If an airport gets a reputation for encouraging airlines to develop routes that fail, it will prove increasingly difficult going forward to drive new routes abd pax numbers. LGW is a case in point, I doubt very much that the route has generated any contribution to the airport's bottom line when you consider the amount of incentives that have been thrown at the various operators to date. Since EMA commenced the figures on BHX have diluted enormously. Case in point, BHX May 06 totalled 7,500 this May total 4,500. The route is dying on its feet because FR launched EMA, and MAN will go the same way, and yes the recession is having some impact, but you would have expected growth in 07 and 08, which would offset some of the industry wide 15 - 20% declines experienced this year. My original point is and has not changed that NOC will go the same way as SNN with FR, and there will be NO new carriers. As an aside I have no wish to manage NOC, or personalise the debate, I am merely attempting to be constructive!

[sawtooth]

Blurb on the airport website today says they haven't had any weather diversions in the 5 months since CAT II went live.

Ireland West Airport Knock

[EI-BUD]

Bit of a random one but I just read in an old Ryanair printed timetable from 1990 (May23-Oct27) the schedule for Knock/Leeds Bradford;

Once per week 0925/1020 FR462 NOC LBA B11
1100/1200 FR463 LBA NOC B11

The new schedule goes from NOC at 1505 on TUE, THUR & SAT from next year!!!

EI-BUD

[airnoc]

Ireland west knock

How does CAT II ILS implementation work?
What are bmibaby ontime flights like?

[airnoc]

Ireland west knock

Why was the lanzarote flight delayed today?
Is today the busiest day for the number of flights to arr and dept at Ire West Knock in its history?
Aer Lingus would not do flights into Knock when Fr Horan was alive and now there nearly gone bust.
Ryanair started flights into Knock which was Fr Horan dream and are still going booming

[EI-BUD]

Is today the busiest day for the number of flights to arr and dept at Ire West Knock in its history

airnoc, I think you might be right, it certainly is close to the busiest in terms of aircraft movements! There were 3 Lourdes flights showing on the dep board, 3 to London and the rest of the UK flights! It's really great to see it!

Aer Lingus, not so sure that they are nearly bust, in the past when a crisis occured at Aer Lingus they usually needed an instant bail out. They will survive one way or the other and they have some cash in the bank (and yes b4 everybody advises the rate at which it has declined).

When Knock did open it was certainly questionable if a 737 sized aircraft could be sustained on flights to say London, but the Ireland of today is a different place and air traffic is so much more popular now than it was then thanks to airlines like Ryanair!

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ya from what i can see it there were 14 flights in the space of seven hours.....wouldn't think there would be much room to spare on that apron.

[sawtooth]

Yes they announced that it was the busiest day in the airports history with over 5300 people traveling through the airport. August was also the busiest in 3 years with 81,000, good going in the current economic climate.

Overseas visits to State fall 12% - The Irish Times - Thu, Sep 03, 2009

[EI-BUD]

Nice to see such a busy day tomorrow at Knock; up to 310pm there are 12 flight arrivals and then Dublin after 7!

On top of the usuals there is Bmi from Lourdes and Travel Service from Lanzarote.

Not bad going for October...