Problem is getting through the shutdown period.
People have to eat and pay the rent, but most don't have the savings to live off their hump for a couple of months. Nor do their employers have the money to pay them without normal business inflow.
So a shutdown is really a nationalization by another name, the government waives the payments due and provides credits (a la $1000/month suggested by Trump). Unwinding this will be challenging as well.
But it does seem the virus is compelling a very basic reappraisal of what a humane economic structure should look like.

Very well said Turin

I thought cultural appropriation was a no no?

That is the reason for lockdown. Essential workers represent a significant minority. you have listed only a small number - add healthcare workers for example. Unless everyone else stops going out to work or socialise we simply wont get the degree of social distancing necessary to beat the pandemic.

In the UK we are already there as is the rest of Europe. This isnt a case of 'what if' this is a case of 'what now'

The economic disruption will be profound, coming on top of the medical issues and before we have even considered the exit strategy.

Why is it impossible to test every single person. For the US that would require 300 million test kits consisting of 2 sticks and 2 tubes with lids. I am sure sample Buweiser make more bottles of beer than that in arelatively short time. Or the dairies cartoons of milk.
In addition you need a lot of chemicals and people to mix and use them. Plenty of people available and the training is probably not longwinded if concentrated only on the essential.

However 300 million wouldn't be enough. You would need to test each one several times to find when the ones with weak symptoms have it. And afterwards. 2 separate tests to declare them finished with CoVid-19 and in the clear and can resume normal life.
What we need is what the UK have requested. A new test that shows you have had it and now have antibodies and are immune. and for how long. Eventually they will have to come up with a cheap home test kit. If they can do it for pregnancy, why not.

I for one would also like a lung scan regularly afterwards to check if scar tissue has been created on the lungs, how long it takes to go away and when I'm ready for the next virus.
If sample you only become immune for lets say 3 years and build up more scar tissue for each round, we are all due a sticky end more quickly than we had hoped. Some diseases take a new generation to overcome.
And no I would'nt put all my eggs in the vaccine basket. They haven't been able to make one for any of the other 4 Corona viruses that regularly causes a cold in most of us.

cattletruck
You are not comparing like for like. It is well known that, if someone smokes cigarettes for 20 years+, they are probably going to die of it. Likewise, death due to car prang and annual flu - it is well known. What people are panicking about is a NEW disease that cannot be seen or felt when it infects you and might kill you or deprive you of a job when your company cannot trade.


All govts and corporates picked up their old rule book and started reading. Eventhough some have been pointing out (for some time) that there was a Depression waiting for a trigger. ALL central banks now have to do something different and, for institutions, that is very, very difficult.

One of the key problems is that money is needed more urgently at the 'bottom' of the ladder, for the people with mortgages and bills to pay. Govts are only used to giving money to the 'top' of the ladder.

Putting money in at the top is not great as so little will reach the bottom. This needs a complete rethink by Govt and central banks. Neither of which are renowned for being able to change their entire way of thinking. Leave alone in the space of two weeks. That applies to every line of work.

Bingo. Those of us who work supporting the military as I do and who's spouses are healthcare, corrections, EMTs, law enforcement, fire, etc. are now teleworking or taking personal time while the important people continue to work at flattening the curve. I am not mission essential personnel. My spouse is. Driving into Boston for my son's medical treatment today, the hospital was empty, the streets and highways were empty, the pubs and eateries were closed, and nobody was walking around downtown. AND that is exactly what needs to happen.

I was uncertain about the way in which the virus became pneumonia. I now have a reasonable overview picture gained by the Guardian article.

Perhaps the main issue is that it infects a large proportion of the lungs. It seems that it is viral pneumonia and there is little treatment other than oxygen and nursing. It's anticipated that it will, like most pneumonia, become bacteriological and so the patient - if they're very lucky - will be given antibiotics if they've survived the first stage.
Again, my drum-beating about moisture particles in the air. For years I've been writing here and there about how we could lessen the hospital burden by the use of small disinfected towels. A tissue just will not do the job. Now I suggest it's a matter of life or death and again raise the bizarrely bad example we're still seeing from say, the press. Screeching into people's faces at this time should be considered a serious assault. I'm still very angry at that scene.

Stilll every day people are talking AT each other. We need to educate the public about the spray. It is the prime killer.

Assumptions from the U.S. Government playbook on the virus:

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a1c4d244ce.jpg
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthel...ull.pdf#page=1

Well, had my four year anniversary yesterday. Best pilot group I have ever been a part of. Looking at what to do next? Anyone have that truck driving school number?

UK population is 65,000,000 give or take.

4% of that is 2,600,000 who will therefore catch the virus if left unchecked (no quarantining etc)

Mortality rate is 2% which gives a death toll of 52,000 in UK using your figures.

US has a population of 327.2m which gives them a potential death toll of 261,760. Again using your figures.

The Flu season has been in full swing for a few months and Covid19 is playing catchup but is far more of a threat that flu which has a mortality rate of 0.1%

Im currently in the US. As someone with homes on both sides of the boarder (US/Can) I get a good mix and feel for news from various sources. Thankfully I have my VPN to keep up with things in Canada but when on this side I normally flip through local and national sources. With being kind of stuck and purposely staying in I’ve been watching WAY more than I like. I can tell you with absolute certainty talking heads and commentators directly suggested testing everyone and others hint at it. Further, some also suggested tests for anyone with minor symptoms. It’s not limited to any network or local broadcasts either. Bloody nonsense that sends the wrong message.

Even if we accept those figures (which I'm not sure I do), in the next 6 months approximately 400,000 people would be expected to die in the UK in the normal course of events. Many of your 52,000 are people who would othewise have been in that 400,000. It's not at all clear to me that the net increase in deaths would be significant. And the benefit to millions of people of strengthened immune systems as a result of overcoming the virus is significant.

You make a good point which the press have not acknowledged.

Ebola makes you so sick that you have to stay in bed and inevitably limit the spread of the disease since you cannot interact with people anymore.

Covid-19 have flu like symptoms and you can still perform your daily duties and spread the virus to all people who interact with you. We have a portion of the population who's in a risk group due to underlying conditions and/or old age. No country is prepared to have a substantial increase in the number of people needing hospitalisation all of sudden. There are no ICU bed units available for hundreds of people coming all of a sudden. Specialized staff is also a problem. China had to urgently build around 10 modular hospitals to treat all the sick people.

I agree there's no need to panic, but people MUST understand the necessity to avoid social interaction. The main objective of self isolation is to slow down the spread of the disease so the Health Systems of the countries can cope with the inevitable increase in the number of people needing attention.

Italy is the perfect example of what happens when a health system gets completely overwhelmed. Add to that an already aged population and you have the equivalent of a B777 full of people dying everyday due to this damn virus.

Thanks will do,

Ebola self limits because it becomes rapidly visible and kills very fast. CV19 does the opposite.

Many people misunderstand that:- Humans know that people die from old age, cancer, flu, car prangs, drowning and countless other causes. These are all known and factored by each person as they grow up. They understand the dangers of smoking or being in a car etc.

What they find frightening is a NEW disease that they have never heard of that can be transmitted through the air by someone you meet for a few minutes in a shop. That disease does not have to kill you to take away your job and your ability to live any kind of life similar to the one you know.

THAT is why there is panic and the need for decent govt, which is lacking in several places of the world. Despite all the warnings of global pandemics in the last 20 years, how many govts were ready to respond?

Airlines (and all corporates) are asking for money because that's all in the old rule book. The OLD rule book. There are no rules for this 21st century Pandemic.

And we have a moderately effective vaccination against the flu which in the UK is free to over 65s, pregnant women, carers, and people with a list of chronic condition, asthma being just one example. Unfortunately uptake isn't always what it could be. People who don't get a free jab can get one cheaply at a pharmacy.

So do we think the tinfoil hat wearing anti-vaxers will be relying on crystals and homeopathy to protect their kids etc when eventual vaccine does arrive?

The 4% figure is bunkum, think 40%->60% . . . 4% is a non event, many sources now predicting (FWIW) up to 70% population infection rates without extremely draconian isolation measures which will go on for many months and which probably cannot be tolerated by the liberal west . . . not so much of a problem in China for example.

Secondly the point about Influenza immunity through vaccination is very relevant, many of those who influenza does not kill would not survive without vaccination, that same demographic are under the most risk now.

Lots of people will die in this event, and if no vaccine is developed, lots of people will die when it comes around again, which it almost certainly will . . . see Spanish Flu for a reference model for how these things tend to work . . .

Given that 4-5 777s of old people die every single day in each of the UK and Italy and that many of the people on your 777 would otherwise have been on one of those 4 or 5 others then I don't see this as the such a big deal.

We are just delaying the inevitable. Boris accused anti-Brexiteers of dithering and delayiing, and I know it's hard but the same thing is being done in order to maintain short term harmony during this virus outbreak. This harmony won't last in my opinion. The food stockpiling and empty shelves issue is not being taken seriously enough. 3rd day in a row we can't find any flour, bread or eggs. The queue at the butchers was an hour long and we're down to the last pack of loo roles with not a single one to be seen in the 3 supermarkets within a 2 mile radius. Forget anything fancy like anti-bac wipes and gels.

There is no water-tight solution and someone somewhere will be massively inconvenienced or have their well-being seriously impacted. I'm happy to be ridiculed but here's what I think will work. For 4 weeks, we should close every office, factory (except for those related to food), school, club, venue, shop, outlet and restaurant (allowing takeaways). Only supermarkets, local grocery stores and pharmacies should remain open and therefore only those workers should be out. If it's not related to food or health, it needs to close. Activate the army to support and strengthen the logistics and supply chain by ensuring food deliveries are getting through to the supermarkets. In fact, get them to help stock the supermarkets and provide support to the staff at supermarkets to deal with any ****. Registered volunteers, the army and police can also help ensure food is delivered to the sick and lonely.

The population must stay in doors with only one designated person allowed to go out once a day to buy food. This can't be enforced in the UK though it was in China thanks to AliBaba and Tencent apps tied to people's IDs.

All bills, mortgage and loan repayments and rents should stop for a month. Each week, advise people to spring clean and disinfect every inch of their house and if they haven't already to wash every clothing item, bit of cloth and linen they've used that week.

Councils should disinfect streets and public places (visiting the same spot once a week). Garbage collection should continue and even be doubled if possible.

First we ridiculed China's measures and felt sorry for those poor people kicking and screaming as police picked them up to take them to hospital and as entire apartment complexes were boarded up. Now we marvel at the fact that outside of Hebei (Wuhan) there are literally a handful of cases in each of other provinces according to Johns Hopkins. Fine that's probably a BS figure, but even if you multiply it by 10, it's still a marvelous accomplishment. It seems deeply worrying we are not prepared to replicate this strategy because we are "liberal" and "free". Those concepts, whilst truly wonderful, will become meaningless as panic grows even more and riots take place (Riots in city centers happened because some druggy roughneck got shot by the police, that pales nothing in comparison to this).

Stobart Air Gone
 

Reported by The Irish Independent online. Thoughts with all involved.

John Mulligan

March 18 2020 03:51 PM

“Connect Airways, the holding company behind Dublin-based Stobart Air, which operates the Aer Lingus Regional service, has fallen into administration in the UK, the Irish Independent has learned.

The move is linked to the recent collapse of Flybe. UK-based Flybe was also part of Connect Airways.

The administration means that accountancy firm EY now controls Connect and 49pc of Stobart Air. The other 51pc of Stobart Air is owned by its more than 400 staff.

Connect Airways is 30pc-owned by the listed UK Stobart Group. Virgin Travel Group, a subsidiary of Virgin Atlantic, also has a 30pc stake, while US firm Cyrus Equity Partners owns 40pc.

Yesterday, Stobart Group, whose CEO is Warwick Brady, warned investors that it’s evaluating how to manage liabilities it has to Stobart Air”.

Agree with everything you’ve said :D

I said basically the same many days ago but everybody was laughing at me. Riots are getting closer.

well done. Gold star. Maybe you should get a job in the government.

Too often nowadays I hear is "government should do this" and "government should do that". And what happened to individual responsibility and critical thinking? If you were not able to see where this whole thing was going and making necessary preparations for you and your family in advance (even as late as two/three weeks ago) then you haven't been paying attention. A few extra loo rolls would have been a good start.

Population lockdown in hope of getting rid of the CV-19 would not work. It will re-appear as soon as the lockdown is lifted. Unless, of course, you totally northkoreanise yourself and shutdown all borders for years. Hence whatever Europe is doing now is akin to hanging oneself in order to prevent catching a cold (pun intended). These measures will no doubt be successful in killing the economy while perhaps slow down the spread of the virus at best. The economic ramifications (i.e. people suffering and dying) from the shutdown will be far worse than from the virus itself. And we are already beginning to see that with all those bankruptcies, redundancies, pensions disappearing etc.

The only sensible approach is to accept CV-19 as a new reality and attempt to mitigate its spread which is what UK and US so far is trying to do - encourage(enforce?) groups at risk (seniors, people with pre-conditions etc.) to self-isolate perhaps with some help from the government but let the healthy majority continue spinning the economic wheel while taking certain pre-cautions.

People want the government to do something because we're forced to go into work despite where I live declaring a state of emergency! Boomer employers are ok telling office workers to come in during a pandemic! How ****** is that?

But what are you trying to say exactly?

Government is still in charge and if they command a lock down, no thing I can do.
My government is going for letting the virus do it's thing, but they try to slow of down/protect the weak by social distancing. Again, what can I do?

How would critical thinking and personal responsibility play into this?

Most of those people don't die in an ICU.

It will be a big deal for you if you have a heart attack or are critically injured in a car crash, and there are no ICU beds to accommodate you. I live in Québec. We have an average of 11.2 ICU beds per 100k population, a middle-of-the-pack number for Western democracies. Now let's assume 10% of that population get infected, and 5% of those require ICU care (I believe that's the actual number, plus or minus). That's 10k infected people requiring 500 ICU beds. But you only have 11.

Yes, it is such a big deal.

Aviation in the UK will be Nationalised...........
 

....there is no other way.

Critical thinking suggests that this won't work.

Advice is that anyone advised to get a flu shot is in the "vulnerable " class. That's the over 65s plus others. Take up among the over 65s is around 70% and they make up ~20% of the population. They take about 2/3 of the advisory flu shots. Adding in the other 1/3, as a rough estimate, you end up with 30-40% of the population being in an at risk group and self-isolating.

To get to the point where there is sufficient general herd immunity to protect them (>60% of the total poulation), you need essentially everyone else to have it and become permanently immune to reinfection. There is no evidence that being infected once gives you lifelong protection (it's not automatic), but let's assume it does. (If it doesn't this strategy would be utterly wrong, so it's a gamble anyway.) To get total population herd immunity (so the vulnerable could come out of isolation) you would still have to deliberately infect robust people in a systematic way (since they would develop "internal herd" immunity while the vulnerable were isolated and not relevant to transmission).

You would have to keep leakage to the isolated group at a level that didn't, with the lower rate of severe cases from the over 30s but under 65s, overstress the NHS. If you keep the infection rate low enough to preserve the NHS from the effect of serious cases, it takes years to get to the herd immunity state in the UK.

The correct "critical thinking" strategy is to delay spread and work towards a treatment or a vaccine. This is likely to take 6-12 months. It may involve several periods of lockdown because, as you note, it is likely to re-emerge. However, governments are not likely to make the same mistake again, and will clamp down on cases. much faster, so lockdown could be more regional and/or shorter.

I've read this thread from the start, lots of creative accounting and mathematical projections here. If only the World health organisation, CDC and other agencies had the expertise that is rampant here... oh that's right they do. The 'hysteria' here is a perfect reflection of what is the problem. It's not the virus causing the problem, its peoples reaction to the reporting of it.

I'm reading on the professional pilots rumour network a million and one opinions, from people that have absolutely no connection to the industry aside from they have sat in a seat (and that would be better hosted in jetblast)... and actually I'm tired of it. So I'm going to tell it like it is, as an actual airline pilot, and bring it back to topic.

The industry is on its arse and 12 months by now will have changed beyond all recognition. The 'virus' that is spreading and affecting the industry is not a new form of germ. It is the global infection of mass hysteria that has affected the economy and peoples behaviour to the point where 'society' and the normal rules of behaviour, decency and in fact common sense have broken down. This has affected air travel in combination with a great deal of other public services and amenities. The cause for that is the global availability and consumption of media, be that social, news or literary. In the last week I've watched my world fall apart, literally.... whilst I and everyone I know is actually quite healthy. I've lost my job, and there isn't another (globally) to realistically apply to, that hasn't been touched with the brush of 'covid-19'. Not the infection itself mind.... but the effect (mentioned above) that has damaged consumer confidence... to give an example, my local pub has sent an email describing the ramifications (prior to our friend boris's industry destroying speech) detailing their corona plan, when in fact theres never more than 5 people in there at the best of times...

The 'crisis' I've seen, isn't people being 'sick' around me in the sense of corona, it's actually a mild breakdown of society. Panic buying, mass hysteria and a media that is basking in days/weeks/months of easy work whilst the headlines write themselves, with a little massaging of course.

I'm watching as airlines draw themselves in, not to preserve customer, or their staff's health (regardless of touchy feely emails), but to make sure they are still around to take full advantage of the inevitable recovery and give the maximum benefit and profit to their shareholders. The world is broken, aviation is but a part of it as an industry most susceptible, not to corona, but to public perception.

In closing I will add, I'm not worried about the lack of toilet paper on the shelves. The daily mail seems to have no problem making extra prints to satisfy the public appetite, and nails for the bathroom are still readily available. I'll just have to make sure the print doesn't stick, or I'll end up with more sh!t than I started with.

Goodnight all and for those of you actually in the industry, I genuinely wish you nothing but the best.

Maybe I am misunderstanding you, or we are in different parts of the world, but what do you expect from the airlines?

Aren't they doing what we all do in a crisis? Scale back expenses so to (hopefully) weather the storm?

The airline I fly for sees destination after destination close and they will stop 90% of the total flights. Why would you expect different?

Rest of the post I totally agree with..

To compound airlines already critical time here in the UK the £ has bombed against the dollar making lease rates a much more difficult pill to swallow

A USD $250,000 Lease payment today is costing £217,000 but at 1.35 on the 1st Jan it would of been £185,000 - that’s gonna hurt when you pro-rata it across the fleets value for different types...

Sorry I was talking cross purposes there. What I was trying to say is, that at the moment, the industry is effectively critically sick. Any operator who survives this will be incredibly lucky. The reason for this however is not the virus. At least it was not initially. It is as a result of the public and media's response to the virus. Which in turn has damaged the economy. This is not a viral problem, but an economic one.

Further to my point I know of one (major) airline that is not just halting its operation, but trying its hardest, not to support its staff, but adding long term draconian changes to thier terms and conditions that are little more than opportunism whilst the chips are down. It has nothing whatsoever to do with Corona, it is in fact asking its staff to fund its recovery and make life cheaper whilst simultaneously pleading poverty to the government for a handout.... All the while it has data on its website, effectively boasting about how much spare cash it has... they want to preserve their profit at great cost to their workers, who are already struggling, and that isn't right. Socialism only exists in the upper echelons of business, beneath that it's still very much capitalist.

In summary I think the industry will be changed beyond recognition by the end. However Corona was merely the spark that ignited the absolute dumpster fire that is our economy, the rules of our economy, and how the world and business in particular operated. Corona wasn't the reason, all it has served is to highlight how already fragile, broken, corrupt and useless the system already was

Tacho do you mean the US airlines or European carriers or both? Also, why am I not surprised? I'm glad I escaped the airlines and got myself a job with security and all I have to do is run my mouth and do simple calculus

I was referring to a UK carrier, but it wouldn't surprise me if it is happening across the atlantic too. I can't say I blame you, and if there was something else I could do that would ensure a similar income right now I would jump as far from this industry as I possibly could. Sadly I've spend the last 18 years with my eggs in this basket, been through 3 job losses, and am unqualified to do anything else...

TACHO : I agree with you on that one . The public will have changed too.
2-3 months of confinement at home ,as it looks like we will all soon or later be confronted with, will give time for people to look into their priorities. I doubt that when this over everyone will have the wish to travel for leisure a few times a year , or the money for it ..

Totally agree with you.
Pity the finance sectors, government et al don't see this. I for one don't have much time for economists either. My dear gran used to say "if economists want a recession they can build one".