Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?
 

As bad news arrive everyday , almost every hour now and the endemic peak still weeks or months away , who is strong enough to overcome the storm and how our industry will look like 6 moths from now?
Not only crews and airlines but our whole industry .
For instance with Boeing share price around 150 USD ,today a drop of 70% in a few months, can the commercial division survive ?

Oh suuure; if the Boeing goes belly up, it will be all due to the 2019. SARS strain and in no way related to the fact America's finest narrowbody is has been grounded for a year, with quite poor chances of ever being allowed to fly again.

Even if it can fly, will airlines still want to proceed or ditch their order on the basis of late delivery...

According to the CDC, 3,000 people have died from the Covid19 virus but 20,000 people have died from Flu in the current season.

According to a virologist on the radio yesterday: 1/5 of people exposed will catch Covid19. Only 1/5 of those will display symptoms. So that's 4% of people who have been exposed, by my maths, or 1 in 25. Of those, most will just have a fever and a dry cough.

Time to stop panicking.

Wash your hands - with water and soap - more than usual and take multi vitamins and minerals.

Yes, let’s sit and watch who’s dying, shall we? Like rubbernecking at an accident. Everybody can think of some candidates in bad shape, but there will be surprises too. Having a discussion who will and who won’t is bad taste in my book. Enough people, in almost ALL companies, will be severely worried at the moment.

Sure she can fly. She just needs three small items fixed: proper SAS instead of STS, proper stick pusher instead of MCAS and whole world willing to dial the certification criteria down to 1960s standards. Piece of cake in today's world, Naomi Klein would observe.

Welcome to the new world of selfish introspective #MeToo victim playing millennials.
We survived SARs and a number of world wars, but for the new generation when its all about them and they perceive the odds against them, then they just collapse like a house of cards.
May I suggest a couple of things:
- Turn off your phone.
- Sell your TV.
- Look at the people around you for what they are.
Then in six months when your still alive and wasting precious oxygen, consider making an apology for being a selfish pri!ck (if it's within your capability).

ATC Watcher, I respect most of your posts but I feel this time you are listening to the idiot brigade that now run our media and finance. In time you will see what I see.

And this statement is supposed to help or solve problems?

Yes. 20k have died since September 2019 for flu, and 5k have died of Corona since January 2020. Of those 5k, 1k in Italy in the past 3 weeks alone. You people really, really don't understand exponential growth and the fact that in the most of the world the epidemy has only just started.

Everybody is /r/iamverysmart about this until they are hit hard. Look at Italy, look at the stories doctors are telling first hand. Who do you think knows something about it? An armrest chair virologist or somebody who is right there, in the cockpit so to speak?

Also, I really wonder what study this guy quoted or used as a basis for his claim? Because you know, if it were so innocent, then how come the Chinese are literary welding people's doors to keep them inside and Italians are not accepting anyone under 60 into the intensive care - literary if you are over 60 you are on your own, left to die. And the cutoff age is getting lower.

But sure, while some of us isolate, go ahead and make corona parties to expose yourself to it and get immune... we'll collect your bodies in a few months as the evolutionary process prunes the unfit.

Yes it does. When Tom Hanks recovers from his unfortunate spell with the virus then the idiot brigade will exploit it for all it's worth and completely ignore the doom they were peddling beforehand, the world will then return to normal as if nothing happened (according to them).

Pick that time on the sharemarket and you will do well.

The Banks
 

FACT - Businesses everywhere, particularly airlines, still managing to sell their services and products - sale goes through credit card and it's not coming back from the banks. All cost, no income. The economic death spiral starts - we should have jailed all of them in 2008.

Hmmmmm, I think ATC Watcher may have been referring to which parts of the industry will survive rather then individuals. Its a very worrying time, right across the board. The USA will be a big risk without universal healthcare, there could be a huge outbreak in that country, which will have an impact on the domestic and international operators, alongside many of the OEMs as well.


Be nice people, as the WHO states, we are all in this together.

So what is the scientific base that multi vitamins and minerals wil stop this pandemic? Your maths are completely incorrect. I do not even know where to start.

There will be an exponential growth every 6 days until drastic measures are taken that prevent countries healthcare systems to collapse. Yes, the majority of the symptoms are mild. However, 20% still require medical treatment. Hospitals in Italy are overflowing and medical personnel is performing triage.

They have to chose who lives and dies. Before, people above 80, now 60 wil not be admitted. Where does this stop if if beds and material are depleted? Do you think the WHO or doctors in countries as Italy are “merely” panicking?

This has nothing to do with panicking but being rational about the impact of this virus. Being naïeve does not help. Taking vitamins and minerals do not help. Social distancing helps. Please, please, please take 25 minutes the read the article below to fully understand what will happen if we do not mitigate the consequences starting right now.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

Whow, do not put words in my post that I did not use. I am not looking at counting bodies and collecting old airlines models.. This is not the Corona virus that will not change things on its own , It , like every accident a combination of factors . the MAX and the corona effect on airlines,for Boeing ( a lot of airlines will at best defer at worst cancel orders , a few will no longer exist when this is over , etc..)
The virus seems to have the same effect to the people as to the airlines, the old/weak ones with pre-condition illness will die first .And since there were quite a few of them before this virus, that will change a lot for all of us here.

If I take my branch , ATC, most of the ANSPs today are privatized or run on separate budgets and depend on airlines paying fees, with less of them flying around, less fees coming in , halving the North Atlantic traffic for instance at flip of a tweet will have huge financial implications. . .They can continue to pay salaries and maintain facilities for some time but after that ? Stopping training and forcing people to retire early ? we did that after 9/11 and less in 2008, and we are still paying the bill as staff shortages are huge.
Same in most of the air travel industry . We could be crippling our industry for years to come ..

As to switching off my phone and not listening to the news. I am not a fan of the ostrich. And absolutely , yes we are all in this together...

You should probably get over yourself. You realize that the majority of those running the countries and making decisions in regards to this crisis are not millennials. Most of them are still of the baby boom generation.

Hand that man a beer 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

ATC Watcher, apologies if you thought I put words in your mouth, that was not the intention. My point is (and was) that humans are a resilient bunch, most of us will heed the warnings, apply common sense and will take the necessary precautions, and lo and behold, will survive. But we will do it without all the current media frenzy on the subject which is inducing mass hysteria causing the foolish and greedy to hoard essential supplies - which is precisely my beef. The current situation may be serious, but it is not permanent if we all behave the right way. Unfortunately the industries of self interest - media and finance - are not helping the issue.

How many have already recovered?
 

Are there any stats on the numbers already well?

Counting the totals is all very well but at some point the sick come out the other side as well. Then go back to work as a rolling 20% of a sick working population. 1 in 5 is not that big a number if you look at your own work place.

But unfortunately what you have failed to factor in is just how infectious Covid-19 is. With Western European countries such as Germany now saying - based on their best available scientific advice - that 70% or more of their population may get infected this year it doesn't take a maths genius to work out that in Germany this would mean a 0.5% fatality rate would result in 400,000 deaths.

0.5% is laughable. If the thing is not contained, it can be up to 10%. Look at Italy: 15k cases, 1k dead!

We need to contain this to protect healthcare capacity:

And note that Germans do some creative statistics there.
If you had asthma and got COVID19 and then died - they count you as asthma death.
So reality is muuuch worse there.


&

I'll take my chances with that rate any day.

Like aviation that keeps on growing, the greater the population at risk, the greater the number affected by a single cause. What is needed is the relative contribution of a single cause over a fixed period of time, compared to the basic underlying risk of dying from any cause, known or unknown.

Jet Blast

I found this site to be interesting https://www.worldometers.info/corona...navirus-cases/

The last graph (outcome of cases) is compelling.

Flu has a fatality rate of .1%, Thus virus is between 3.4 and 6%, so between 340 and 600 times as deadly, and it spreads and multiplies in a similar way.

Don't tell me, you also think climate change is a hoax too...

I'm not one of those that say "it's just a flu". However, the mortality rate is most likely nowhere near as high as you suggest. Your numbers are only based on known infections. It is fair to assume that there are lot's more unknown infections which will bring down the mortality rate a lot. My guess based on everything I have read is to not more than 1%

Again, that is still ten times worse than the regular flu. But not as bad as you suggested.

Did Al Gore do your modeling for that?

1% is the going rate - UK CMO

Take a look at the facts about both topics

In responce to the question "Who will still be here in 6 months". My answer,...Most of us...But with almost eight billion humans on this world the numbers will still be huge.

Wait til this hits the 3rd world... Italy can't cope, imagine some parts of Africa...

Please first read the article from the link before spreading partially incorrect statements. Especially the UK is very good at downplaying this at the moment. The 0.5-1% number is due to the fact that we are at the very beginning of this pandemic. Someone infected today will die in approx. 2 weeks. Therefore the current number of deaths is hardly correct to paint a correct picture. So is the number of people infected. The amounts are much higher than known.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-f4d3d9cd99ca

And, of course, your figures are based on "My Guess"- not the experts whose job it is to provide these figures.

But 1% is WAY lowball

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...-fatality-rate

Yeah, the CMO says no problem-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ave-it-says-pm

Facts on that other matter

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...-than-in-1990s

A good point but he was referring to a society reacting to keep the peak as low as possible with planned interventions.

The state I work in has declared emergency - unless you are very high risk or showing severe symptoms requiring hospitalization, you are not tested to confirm COVID - not enough test kits to go around. So likely, you are correct that the mortality rate is quite a bit lower then the numbers being spouted.

Wrong: My "guess" based on expert opinion I have read. I'm just making their bets guess my best guess. We do know the number of deaths but we (including the experts) can only guess the number of those infected. It's almost certain that many more people are invected but have not been tested.

The U.K. CMO is saying that between 5000 to 10000 people in the IK have the virus, very few are confirmed cases. Like other countries the confirmed cases are the “tip of the iceberg”. So working on that premiss the death rate is about .7%.

This is deceiving.

Once you are confirmed, the probability of dying is 3.4% (or whatever the number currently is), because you are now in the tested cohort, and we know the mortality rate of the tested cohort.

Almost certainly true with flu also,

Those would be the same millennials who are unlikely to actually die of this, right? The ones with a very low mortality rate? Unlike all the old farts who are moaning about the millennials...

https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death

World population is approximately 7.7 billion. The worst case infection rate has been quoted as 80% which would give 6.16 billion. If the mortality rate of 1% is correct then 61.6 million extra deaths.

I wish I hadn't looked now.

You have an extra zero in there. .1% to 3.4% is 34x.