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-   -   Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ? (https://www.pprune.org/terms-endearment/630488-who-will-survive-here-6-months.html)

infrequentflyer789 16th Mar 2020 17:20


Originally Posted by procede (Post 10716279)
Do not worry. If we, the taxpayers, do save them, this will be in a way which essentially will make the stock worthless (i.e. nationalisation). The shareholders will thus be the first who will be screwed over.

Real question is what happens to their (typically offshore) debt if they are bailed out. Shareholders get a much worse deal both ways these days, used to be you got the profits in the good times and took the losses in the bad times, now in the good times you get a share of whats left of the profit, after tax and the holders of the offshore leveraged debt take cut (tax free).

IMO taxpayer bailouts for businesses with too little in reserve to survive a downturn should generally not go to the holders of the debt that put the business in that position in the first place, and particularly not when that debt is offshore to avoid paying tax on the profits.

SamYeager 16th Mar 2020 17:29


Originally Posted by procede (Post 10716279)
The shareholders will thus be the first who will be screwed over.

However it's a fair bet that senior management will be unscathed other than perhaps the odd bonus and the profit from selling awarded shares. :*

GKOC41 16th Mar 2020 18:45


Originally Posted by Fortissimo (Post 10715842)
You are making the assumption that the people who would have died anyway (normal death rate) will dilute the numbers of deaths purely attributable to Covid-19. Some, perhaps. Many of those already deceased had underlying health conditions but that increased their susceptibility to Covid-19 effects being terminal - you can't assume they would have died anyway. What is very clear is that there is a pandemic infection doing the rounds that kills up to 3% of those infected, and we still do not know exactly what proportion of the population is likely to become infected. As for dramatic net growth or otherwise in deaths, there is pretty good evidence from the Bergamo (Italy) local newspaper, where the obituary notices have gone from the normal 1.5 pages to 10 per day. I call that dramatic.

For all of us, it is worth re-reading Dr tbd's excellent post #109 - he is only a consultant anaesthetist so might know what he is talking about? Time to start taking this seriously.

Is the thread about airlines here in 6 months or the general public...

Pugilistic Animus 16th Mar 2020 18:50


Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying (Post 10712808)
Denti's talking epidemiology:ok:

Covid19 spreads like the common cold; so, a strong probability just about all of us will be exposed to it over the next few years. Identified cases tend to be the severe ones, but at least that denominator (positive tests) is known. Silent infections are likely a much larger denominator that we don't really know at present.

As for a vaccine, they've been trying for many decades to develop one against a fellow coronavirus, the common cold.

Rhinovirus too

ciderman 16th Mar 2020 18:53

We recently booked a flight from UK to Singapore via Dubai to join a cruise ship. When we had to alter our arrangements to stop in Dubai we expected a refund on the Dubai to Singapore leg (business class). Oh no. The original flight was cancelled by the airline and we had to buy another ticket to DXB. This turned out to be £400pp dearer than UK to SIN. Fair enough, we accepted the law of supply and demand. BUT, When Richard Branson starts asking for £7.5bn to keep his airline afloat I say no way. Supply and demand is not a one way street and when the going gets tough don't ask for my (taxpayer) money. Sell an island Sir Richard and that goes for any other airline bleating about no pax!!
ciderman is offline Report Post

BlankBox 16th Mar 2020 19:02

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2132V5

...well...that didn't take long :p

Airbubba 16th Mar 2020 19:07

U.S. airlines are going to the trough hoping for more than $50 billion.

From CNBC:


U.S. airlines are seeking government assistance of more than $50 billion, including a mix of direct aid and loan guarantees, as the industry reels from the coronavirus outbreak, a lobbying group that represents 10 U.S. passenger and cargo airlines said Monday.

The aid, if received, would be the industry’s first broad bailout since the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. It is also the clearest sign yet of the financial damage coronavirus and the draconian measures governments are taking to stop it are having on American businesses.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/us-a...-business.html

Airlines for America, the industry lobbying group formerly known as the Air Transport Association, looks like they could use a web page update:

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d949ad3de6.jpg


Dan_Brown 16th Mar 2020 20:42

Why should the British tax payer help prop up airlines? Travel is a luxury, trying to save life is a priority.

As mentioned above, they objected to the Govenment (tax payer) assisting Fly Be, now they're squealing like stuck pigs, now they are in the pig poo, themselves.

lomapaseo 16th Mar 2020 20:48


Originally Posted by Vendee (Post 10716237)
I can only speak for my country but I don't see why big business, its directors and shareholders can fatten themselves in the good times and then expect Joe Public to give them money when things turn sour.

Well if we went socialist we wouldn't get fat in good time so then bad times would not even be noticed as a change to the worker bees

BlankBox 16th Mar 2020 21:06


Originally Posted by GKOC41 (Post 10716398)
Is the thread about airlines here in 6 months or the general public...

I tried to get a separate thread for Airline bailouts going...but Mods had other ideas & combined 'em...so live with it...

PS: ...I'm over 75 so likely one o' the dead ones to come...so fit into what I thought this was originally about..:\

infrequentflyer789 16th Mar 2020 21:22


Originally Posted by dogsridewith (Post 10716078)
There have been a couple reports of arthritis drugs (Rheumatoid Arthritis?) being tried (with some success?) for treating Covid-19 cases. But drug names or types were not stated. Methotrexate? Leflunomide? The "Biologics?" If these drugs' sort of general immune system suppression function is working against Covid-19, that would suggest the "Cytokine Storm" explanation of this Coronovirus' lethality?

More likely referring to hydroxychloroquine, mild immunosuppressive but also anti-viral effect, apparently. Other candidates are some of the anti-HIV drugs.

Hydroxychloroquine is an older anti-malarial, still used for certain destinations (most places it is no longer effective against malaria), I guess some pilots may have some. I'd keep hold of it if you do. I know that the UK has put it on export restriction as of a couple of days ago, this isn't a coincidence.

And yes, "Cytokine Storm" is a known lethal pathology for this disease.

Nil by mouth 16th Mar 2020 22:29

I saw this tip on a Mercedes forum about panic buying hand sanitiser https://benzglobal.org/viewtopic.php?f=2&p=338#p338

Gib/Spanish border operating normally this morning.
EasyJet and BA flights departed today and both airlines scheduled flights to UK airports still listed up until this coming Saturday. https://www.gibraltarairport.gi/cont...ve-flight-info

etudiant 16th Mar 2020 23:48

This virus is the best thing that ever happened to the national carriers. Whereas previously governments were inclined to let them go bust or folded into transnational entities, now suddenly there is largess, courtesy of the taxpayer.
Of course the airlines have plenty of company in this de facto renationalization, now that the EU has shown its complete inability to ensure supranational rules apply to critical items such as protective medical gear.
The dream of 'one world' has faded with the recognition that it is dangerous to rely on a global supply chain for essentials such as medicines. Imho Brexit is only the beginning of a return to national self reliance, which will bring tariffs and trade barriers.
Of course there will be less global travel in this new environment, so the national carriers will prosper, but on a smaller scale.

gearlever 16th Mar 2020 23:55

No worries....


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5cb24e5d1e.jpg

Ollie Onion 17th Mar 2020 00:02

The ‘Chinese’ virus, no Donald I think it is the Worlds virus now.

Longtimer 17th Mar 2020 00:39

Boeing and Trump administration in talks about short-term aid as aviation reels from coronavirus
So it seems that someone is creating a link between the MAX problems (caused by Boeing?) and the virus. Hmmmm Seems to me that the Boeing problems are 99% Max and 1% virus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coro...-term-aid.html


AerialPerspective 17th Mar 2020 03:00


Originally Posted by Longtimer (Post 10716771)
Boeing and Trump administration in talks about short-term aid as aviation reels from coronavirus
So it seems that someone is creating a link between the MAX problems (caused by Boeing?) and the virus. Hmmmm Seems to me that the Boeing problems are 99% Max and 1% virus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coro...-term-aid.html

Who gives a damn what the orange clown thinks, he's an imbecile who is likely to make this worse rather than better... as for Boeing, they will be bailed out by the US Government. The US don't have much choice with the amount of defense materiel tied to Boeing.

RickNRoll 17th Mar 2020 06:55


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 10716730)
This virus is the best thing that ever happened to the national carriers. Whereas previously governments were inclined to let them go bust or folded into transnational entities, now suddenly there is largess, courtesy of the taxpayer.
Of course the airlines have plenty of company in this de facto renationalization, now that the EU has shown its complete inability to ensure supranational rules apply to critical items such as protective medical gear.
The dream of 'one world' has faded with the recognition that it is dangerous to rely on a global supply chain for essentials such as medicines. Imho Brexit is only the beginning of a return to national self reliance, which will bring tariffs and trade barriers.
Of course there will be less global travel in this new environment, so the national carriers will prosper, but on a smaller scale.

Capitalise the profits, socialise the losses.

clipstone1 17th Mar 2020 07:58


Originally Posted by gearlever (Post 10716740)

Exactly what the US did post Sept 11, subsidised their aviation industry while the rest of the world to pay themselves.....

Nialler 17th Mar 2020 08:07

SLF here, but probably with enough miles under my belt to have paid several salaries over the years.

I took two things from the OP (although both might not have been included:

The first is the risk to our health - and that risk seems global.

The second is the risk to livelihoods in the aviation industry.

I don't feel that there is anything wrong with addressing both. Of course there is a much bigger picture involved, but surely you professionals have the right to also consider the potential fallout when it comes knocking on your door with a message for you personally. That the individual knocking isn't carrying a scythe, but rather a P45 or its equivalent, doesn't mitigate the direct impact.

You people carry us hither and thither. Sometimes you may have to dig deep into your bank of skills in order to get us where we want to be.

I hope you all survive this with health intact and a career in place. The best of luck to all.

Smooth Airperator 17th Mar 2020 10:42


Capitalise the profits, socialise the losses.
I'll use that for life!

Drc40 17th Mar 2020 11:08


Originally Posted by AerialPerspective (Post 10716861)
Who gives a damn what the orange clown thinks, he's an imbecile who is likely to make this worse rather than better... as for Boeing, they will be bailed out by the US Government. The US don't have much choice with the amount of defense materiel tied to Boeing.

I give a damn what the orange clown thinks. He’s all the US has and we should hope he makes good decisions. Based on what I’ve seen he’s been smart enough to surround himself with professionals and experts. Now is not the time to point fingers with political partisanship. We all need to band together and work the problem. I’m stuck with the spineless Mr Trudeau. At least the orange clown is making hard decisions while my leader can’t decide when to take a dump. I’d be happy with a cocky clown vs a spineless wimp right now.

As for Boeing, of course there will be government bailouts. It won’t be unique to them or the industry either. Many other industries will need the same to survive. Many big companies and banks will lose value as well. Companies like Apple will lose billions of stock value but they won’t become insolvent. Many big businesses will shed paper value and there will be a new norm. This is a huge game changer.

Nialler 17th Mar 2020 11:21


Originally Posted by Drc40 (Post 10717223)
I give a damn what the orange clown thinks. He’s all the US has and we should hope he makes good decisions. Based on what I’ve seen he’s been smart enough to surround himself with professionals and experts. Now is not the time to point fingers with political partisanship. We all need to band together and work the problem. I’m stuck with the spineless Mr Trudeau. At least the orange clown is making hard decisions while my leader can’t decide when to take a dump. I’d be happy with a cocky clown vs a spineless wimp right now.

As for Boeing, of course there will be government bailouts. It won’t be unique to them or the industry either. Many other industries will need the same to survive. Many big companies and banks will lose value as well. Companies like Apple will lose billions of stock value but they won’t become insolvent. Many big businesses will shed paper value and there will be a new norm. This is a huge game changer.

I am simply not seeing him being at all smart, and certainly not seeing evidence of his taking on board the views of experts.

The guy is either an idiot or doing a very accomplished impersonation of one. Did you not watch his presser the other night? Critical aspects of what he said had to be clarified afterwards. I mean really basic and critical aspects.

marchino61 17th Mar 2020 11:23


Originally Posted by clipstone1 (Post 10716188)
The biggest risk for the airline employees (current and former) is potential loss of pensions that have been accrued over many years. Sure a whole bunch of new airlines, probably with almost the same names, will start up to fill gaps of any that do disappear (all paying less money and with worse t&cs than those which have gone) but that will still leave employees with huge holes in their legacy pension schemes.

Why? Pension schemes are not owned by companies. They are independent. As long as the companies have kept the schemes fully-funded, there should be no problem.

superflanker 17th Mar 2020 11:51


Originally Posted by infrequentflyer789 (Post 10716031)

Just for starters:

* we don't know the long term effects of exposure, many (most?) recovered SARS patients have chronic lung problems and lipid metabolism changes, many years later, for COVID19 we don't know yet, but early survivors are known not to have recovered full lung function, yet, maybe they will in future, or maybe not
* we know that some corona viruses in animals lie dormant after first exposure and recovery and then go on to kill years later, no one knows what this one will do years from now

You have to be careful with this assumptions. When you say this things it's almost like you love see people panicking.

1- Only critical patients with severe pneumonia had shown this problems (and "regular" pneumonia caused by bacteria can have the same effect, I have seen this happen on a family member years ago).
2- Remember critical-ill patients represent around 5-10%. And not all of them have shown this problems.
3- You say this virus is new and we don't know much about it (true). So you can't assure this problems are "chronic". They may be temporary.

This virus has "just" been discovered. The entire world is researching vaccines, new treatments and old treatments for other diseases that could work with this one. It's just a matter of time some treatment with good results show up.

And speculations about how this virus could or could not behave in the future doesn't help anybody.

This situation is already bad as it is for the world, for aviation and for us (pilots). And it will most probably get worse before it gets better. So please stop spreading more panic.

Thanks

admiral ackbar 17th Mar 2020 12:28


Originally Posted by Drc40 (Post 10717223)
I give a damn what the orange clown thinks. He’s all the US has and we should hope he makes good decisions. Based on what I’ve seen he’s been smart enough to surround himself with professionals and experts. Now is not the time to point fingers with political partisanship. We all need to band together and work the problem. I’m stuck with the spineless Mr Trudeau. At least the orange clown is making hard decisions while my leader can’t decide when to take a dump. I’d be happy with a cocky clown vs a spineless wimp right now.

As for Boeing, of course there will be government bailouts. It won’t be unique to them or the industry either. Many other industries will need the same to survive. Many big companies and banks will lose value as well. Companies like Apple will lose billions of stock value but they won’t become insolvent. Many big businesses will shed paper value and there will be a new norm. This is a huge game changer.

The man you say surrounded himself with scientists called the virus a hoax and said it was contained to 15 cases 2 weeks ago. You say not to get lost in political posturing and go on a generic anti-Trudeau rant in the same breath, does it only work one way? The VP and current surgeon general heading your crack team mismamaged an HIV epidemic in Kansas (2011) because they don't believe in science and also think South Korea is a dictatorship (to explain why they could not react like them).

Not saying the federal government is doing a great job (our Premier in Quebec is making Trudeau look awful) but the provincial governments in general (except Alberta and Ontario, Doug Ford telling people to go on spring break last Friday was almost criminal) are doing a good job so far, at least where I live. Your confidence in our friends to the south federal leadership is misguided. I would have shut the border to Americans (people not goods) yesterday as well.



ATC Watcher 17th Mar 2020 12:37

Someone earlier asked about Air France future . well the French Finance minister Bruno Le Maire announced this morning that no large company will be allowed to fail, money will be injected even nationalization will be looked at .
So here you go. Air France will survive this crisis.

Smooth Airperator 17th Mar 2020 12:38

The biggest U.S. airlines spent 96% of free cash flow over the last decade to buy back shares of their own stock in order to boost executive bonuses and please wealthy investors. Now, they expect taxpayers to bail them out to the tune of $50 billion. It's the same old story.

Drc40 17th Mar 2020 13:08


Originally Posted by Nialler (Post 10717230)
I am simply not seeing him being at all smart, and certainly not seeing evidence of his taking on board the views of experts.



Originally Posted by admiral ackbar (Post 10717300)
The man you say surrounded himself with scientists called the virus a hoax and said it was contained to 15 cases 2 weeks ago

I sure as $&@# not defending the guy nor claiming he’s smart. I dislike him as much as the entire world but what I’ve seen the last few days appears promising. I’ve seen an army of health and science professionals, out front, doing the best they can. Whatever happened two weeks ago is ancient history in this clamity. Its not the time to be pointing fingers over what they shoulda coulda done. There will be a time for that but it’s not now. Now is the time to be vigilant, smart and safe.

I think the testing dispute is impossible. No country has the capability to test all citizens. You test those with symptoms in order to quarantine. You simply can not test the entire population. Those with a runny nose will make a beeline to the testing stations and crash the system. It’s a fools errand to think testing everyone will somehow help and suggesting to do so is heightening the hysteria.

Cheers all, everyone stay safe.

Xeptu 17th Mar 2020 13:28

My Tip, All International Passenger Borders Globally will close for one month at least from Saturday 21st March 2020 Freight and Special Missions only

Smooth Airperator 17th Mar 2020 13:50


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....55d89595cc.png


Spooky 2 17th Mar 2020 14:07


Originally Posted by AerialPerspective (Post 10716861)
Who gives a damn what the orange clown thinks, he's an imbecile who is likely to make this worse rather than better... as for Boeing, they will be bailed out by the US Government. The US don't have much choice with the amount of defense materiel tied to Boeing.


The mods should have addicted politics site for your kind of crap.

neville_nobody 17th Mar 2020 14:22

If Boeing get government aid I'd be very aggrieved if I was Bombardier. Build a superior aircraft, unable to sell in the USA because of alleged of government support, lose all your orders to Boeing who then go broke and get a Government bailout

This press release from a few years ago is not going to age well:


“We are disappointed that the International Trade Commission did not recognize the harm that Boeing has suffered from the billions of dollars in illegal government subsidies that the Department of Commerce found Bombardier received and used to dump aircraft in the U.S. small single-aisle airplane market. Those violations have harmed the U.S. aerospace industry, and we are feeling the effects of those unfair business practices in the market every day.

“While we disagree with the ITC’s conclusion today, we will review the Commission’s more detailed opinions in full as they are released in the coming days.

“Boeing remains confident in the facts of our case and will continue to document any harm to Boeing and our extensive U.S. supply chain that results from illegal subsidies and dumped pricing. We will not stand by as Bombardier’s illegal business practices continue to harm American workers and the aerospace industry they support. Global trade only works if everyone adheres to the rules we have all agreed to. That’s a belief we will continue to defend.”

cats_five 17th Mar 2020 15:36


Originally Posted by Drc40 (Post 10717342)
I sure as $&@# not defending the guy nor claiming he’s smart. I dislike him as much as the entire world but what I’ve seen the last few days appears promising. I’ve seen an army of health and science professionals, out front, doing the best they can. Whatever happened two weeks ago is ancient history in this clamity. Its not the time to be pointing fingers over what they shoulda coulda done. There will be a time for that but it’s not now. Now is the time to be vigilant, smart and safe.

I think the testing dispute is impossible. No country has the capability to test all citizens. You test those with symptoms in order to quarantine. You simply can not test the entire population. Those with a runny nose will make a beeline to the testing stations and crash the system. It’s a fools errand to think testing everyone will somehow help and suggesting to do so is heightening the hysteria.

Cheers all, everyone stay safe.

Unfortunately before he finally started listening to the experts, the National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense had been closed down.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...96f_story.html

Drc40 17th Mar 2020 15:44


Originally Posted by cats_five (Post 10717503)
Unfortunately before he finally started listening to the experts, the National Security Council Directorate for Global Health Security and Biodefense had been closed down.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...96f_story.html

I bought into that until I did a little reading and discovered it was false. Now the same paper is setting the record straight.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...sponse-office/

cats_five 17th Mar 2020 16:13


Originally Posted by Drc40 (Post 10717518)
I bought into that until I did a little reading and discovered it was false. Now the same paper is setting the record straight.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...sponse-office/

Thanks but Paywall... :( I've used my free views for the time being.

bafanguy 17th Mar 2020 21:12


Originally Posted by Drc40 (Post 10717342)
...but what I’ve seen the last few days appears promising. I’ve seen an army of health and science professionals, out front, doing the best they can. Whatever happened two weeks ago is ancient history in this clamity. Its not the time to be pointing fingers over what they shoulda coulda done. There will be a time for that but it’s not now. Now is the time to be vigilant, smart and safe.

I think the testing dispute is impossible. No country has the capability to test all citizens. You test those with symptoms in order to quarantine. You simply can not test the entire population. Those with a runny nose will make a beeline to the testing stations and crash the system. It’s a fools errand to think testing everyone will somehow help and suggesting to do so is heightening the hysteria.

Drc40,

Thank you for a measured, rational response to the hysteria and political vitriol, keeping the focus on the actual extant problem. There's a long way to go to set the world right.

I was going to attempt it myself but you did infinitely better than I could have.

Aithiopika 17th Mar 2020 21:16


Originally Posted by Drc40 (Post 10717342)
I think the testing dispute is impossible. No country has the capability to test all citizens. You test those with symptoms in order to quarantine. You simply can not test the entire population. Those with a runny nose will make a beeline to the testing stations and crash the system. It’s a fools errand to think testing everyone will somehow help and suggesting to do so is heightening the hysteria.

Not sure what you're criticizing here. I'm certain there's no serious dispute about whether to test every single person (it's impossible).

Any serious person who wants to get testing up and running wants to do targeted testing, because if we can only manage to sort out the testing mess, it will allow for much more effective containment.

(most of the pronouncements we (USA) have had about the virus being pas the point of containment are really arguments that testing is so fubar that we won't be able to fix it and get all the necessities distributed to where they are needed before it becomes too late. I.e., it's too late from a logistics of testing perspective, not from a direct how widely the virus has spread perspective).

Radgirl 17th Mar 2020 22:00

There is a lot we dont know about the virus, but some basics about epidemiology and what is happening around the world allow us to be reasonably confident

1 that we should have totally isolated China when they locked down - we didnt and the early cases either came straight from China or via China

2 that we should have locked down our countries (I mean the UK and US) about 2 weeks ago - close borders and self isolate everyone except essential workers

3 that we are both undertesting - we need to test 100s of thousands so we can track and eliminate

If we had done so we could have kept deaths at under 100 in the UK and equivalent in the US. As it is we will see many more. The message must go out to self isolate. Everyone except essential workers. No exceptions as to who or how. No contact. Period. Once each patient can only infect less than one other person we win. We can then unlock, rebuild and get the economy and aviation moving again. Anything less and it will drag on much longer with more lives lost


TURIN 17th Mar 2020 22:18


Originally Posted by Radgirl (Post 10717935)
... The message must go out to self isolate. Everyone except essential workers. No exceptions as to who or how. No contact. Period. Once each patient can only infect less than one other person we win. We can then unlock, rebuild and get the economy and aviation moving again. Anything less and it will drag on much longer with more lives lost

Who decides which are essential?
Is it the supermarket shelf stockers, produce delivery drivers, and admin staff that run the re-supply operation? What about utility suppliers? Gas, electricity generation and distribution and water/sewage don't look after themselves. Do we tell the police, fire services and other emergency services to stay at home? What about government, local and national? TV and radio networks , do we shut them down and let everyone go back to reading books and playing cards?

Its all very well saying 'essential workers' until you realise who actually is essential.


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