Extinction of the human race does not imply “the end of the world”. planet earth or whatever you call it, still has a few billion years left before our star expires and it would probably survive extremely well without the human species.

Extremely inaccurate. Look up every recession before the Federal reserve. Or even the recession of 1920, which was over a year later and was followed by the “roaring twenties”, a period of massive growth and prosperity. The federal reserve caused the recession, but stayed out of the recovery and it lasted only a year, thanks to reduction in government and taxes. That should have been an omen to get rid of central banking, but unfortunately for us, they only got bigger and bolder.

If central banks and Fiat money would go away, most of the world’s problems would disappear. No more printing money by governments would allow the global economy to self correct, which is normal and should be allowed to play out. Life has ups and down, you can’t get rid of the downs without severely distorting the balance, only making the next down a lot worse.

In the US, the government (which includes the private Fed) have been doing this since 2001. Destroying the purchasing power of currency, and creating a global race to the bottom by all the world’s Fiat currencies.

Well, this is bottom. And they have committed to start digging deeper and redefine the bottom. For the sake of all of us, especially our offspring, let’s hope they’ve hit rock and this opportunity is not wasted to get rid of this ridiculous Banking system.

It's actually "only" just a few hundred million years until the Sun will have changed enough to have massive impact on our planet, including all life forms (like us, in case we would still be here, which I doubt). The atmosphere will change significantly due to increasing radiation and luminosity of our star. The balance within the so-called habitable zone that allows carbon-based life forms to exist is surprisingly delicate and does not allow significant variation in most parameters.

In about 500-700 million years, C3 photosynthesis will likely stop to work, because there won't be enough CO2 in the atmosphere, despite all climate change and rising CO2 levels we currently have, CO2 will drop significantly with increasing solar radiation over the next few hundred million years until there is not enough left to keep photosynthesis running. At some point, most plant life will be dead, which will in turn lead to a massive change in available oxygen. And then it's probably game over for any higher life form.

Still plenty of time though for recovery from the human mishap and maybe even a new try to establish intelligent life through further evolution.

Damn. I've got less time than I thought. Better start running down the gin stocks

Thank you for restoring a bit of perspective.
If we did nothing, this virus would kill about 1-3% of the people, skewed towards the aged. That was routine 'business as usual' during the middle ages.
Pepys did pretty well during the Great Plague and surely he was not alone. So life continues, just a little different.

Agreed. But we are generations of humans who simply haven't had to deal with that level of external threat, so we're more than a little slow on the learning curve. That means lots of unnecessary death and harm, not to mention doing a very big number on our health workers.

We need to help each other to learn faster.

We no longer live in those times. Plagues caused massive economic damage and personal grief & suffering. I doubt you would be so blase if you had lived then.

The timeline, a la Angela, clever Muti, is when when the infection doubling rate is every 10 days..
I enjoy my consumption of the Earth's resources as much as any privileged Boomer. Should we go on? Is there, without universal Authoritarianism another way ? I'm thinking not,
Without food, a crazy habit I've developed over my years of knocking 'round this planet, I just won't stay here any longer. So food production, not coming from China, yet!

The economic damage and personal suffering back then was similarly disproportionate. That is why people remember these plagues.
The difference today is that we have not had a real crisis for about 75 years, two full generations, so we forget how hard it really is
Fwiw, they are putting up emergency hospital tents in NYC Central Park a few blocks from my place. Blase is not my state of mind under these circumstances.

Agreed. Most of us have a lot of learning to do about a world with a higher background risk of disease, and have forgotten habits that were ingrained for many of our predecessors. It's a steep curve but the more we help each other with accurate, evidence-based information, the better.

America's finest narrow-body? Boeing screwed the pooch on the 737 enhancements. Big Time. It was a great two hour airplane. Now it carries more than a 767-200. Sardine packing for passengers...very high ref speeds and poor runway performance. I'd pick an A320 anyday over the 737!

Horseshoe crab = 600 million years.

Shark = 400 million years.

H. sapien = 250,000 years.

It ain't lookin' good. 🤔

Seniority based extinction? ;-)

Makes sense. 😁

If airlines are nationalised or put on government support for a while, I can't see stratospheric salaries and bonuses being paid to directors. Previously the main interests were shareholder return and dividends, short term thinking regarding cost cutting in order to get a bonus rather than the long term good of the company. Strip out value by selling off core assets, make the numbers look good and you'd be long gone by the time the chickens came home to roost.

Privatisation under Mrs Thatcher was a good thing, inefficient state run companies were transformed, workers could own a piece of their employer and the general public got to participate in an area previously dominated by the financial elite. Now we have a new generation of robber barons pulling the financial strings, quite happy to take all the profits when it pays off but expecting a state bail out when they come short.

Privatise the profits and socialize the costs.

Add to that the propensity for "next quarter" management thinking.

It's the American Way. 😏

@krismiler, 10/10

how we run into situation that very successfull bussiness, with profits and bonuses, and all of sudden 15 days of interuption and we are out of money. Where is reserve gone?
could you imagine house, decent one, with healty and functional family, cars, Bora Bora holidays- and they could not survive without dayli fresh cash a few days?

In France, the economy minister said yesterday that in any private business where the State has a share ( e.g Like in AF or Airbus ) and who will be applying for State financial aid, whether loan or grant, will be requested not to pay dividends to its shareholders in 2020.
Some of those companies already agreed ( incl. Airbus) but not all yet .

Elephant in the Room.
 

Sad to contemplate it but will there even be any call for PPRuNe, in six months time?

The crisis is producing a de facto nationalization of industry. With a little more time, expect rationing as the supply chains buckle.
It is truly a wonderful opportunity for a comprehensive reset of the western economies. What is missing is any indication of the desired outcome.

True when you see the condition of the UK railroad system....:\

Those companies made huge profits in 2019 and , as I understood it, were due to pay large dividends in next months or so, those are the ones in question. .

Well said. There is a time and place and that time isn’t now 👏👏👏

The idea that the industry, Jet2 included, won't contract between by 10-20% as so many holidaying people have lost jobs is difficult to argue against now, since the 23rd March a lot has changed.
Flying schedules will be slow to get going again, some crews got current, some continued to be furloughed. The global economic impact of what we are seeing is unprecedented and like other global events the aviation industry will take years to recover from.
Sadly more will lose their jobs and even worse some their lives. Let us hope we make it out alive and prepare of a very much smaller industry that will take years to recover to January 2020 levels.

I've been pretty consistent in my assertion that the industry will contract by a hell of a lot more than 10-20%. That doesn't change my belief that TUI UK and Jet2 (the corporate entities) will come out of this in reasonable fighting shape. For a large number of pilots and cabin crew currently at both companies that'll be scant comfort because they will be out of work with little prospect of getting flying again.

True, but this isn't a "normal" financial crisis. A lot of those 10-20% haven't necessarily lost their jobs permanently but have instead been temporarily layed off. It's possible that the economy will rebound a lot quicker compared to previous examples. In an optimistic scenario we get on top of coronavirus over the next few months and life slowly returns to normal. This summer is clearly a write-off for most airlines but I don't think it's inconceivable that by next summer traffic is back close to February 2020 levels. Certainly the 3+ year depression people on these forums seem to be assuming is by no means guaranteed.

That is a very optimistic scenario,IMHO. This thing isn't going away. Until there is a vaccine travel will remain restricted by States and individuals to one degree or another. That could easily be 18 months away. I'd say a 20% contraction of the industry would be optimistic, returning to Feb 2020 levels a fantasy.

The Eurocontrol network manager is very optimistic and predicts a rebound of traffic as early as May and around 80-90%f of January traffic by October . .They have normally very good data , but I have a bit of difficulty to see this coming .
On the other hand IATA has a much more pessimistic view ..:

Predictions
 

I too have (great) difficulty seeing any accuracy in the Eurocontrol network manager's predictions -- and Eurocontrol's historical predictions regarding air traffic and economic benefits thereof have been little better than optimistic guessing, even in more predictable times.

Re IATA: Remember what IATA's mandate and primary role is: They are the global lobbying agency for airlines. So rather than calling it "pessimistic" I see it as they are simply setting the stage for the upcoming months of arguing for financial assistance / bailouts for airlines (their members).

”Where did the reserve go to”, in business of all kinds there is very little reserve, it’s just not airlines, when customers stop paying you, you can’t pay the overheads. Your creditors, including leasing companies, banks and shareholders have to take a hit. It’s up to the creditors to decide if the business can be revived or wether to throw the towel in. New investors may or may not buy up the assets such as they are, one guarantee, employees and small creditors always loose.

I admire your steadfast optimism, but what’s required is that we need to face up to all the signals that this isn’t simply a “blip” in the global economy and aviation. The passengers that have been furloughed or laid off will not just walk into another job without financial hangover from the loss of earnings. This and many other issues, such as the price of oil and world futures markets means aviation will not recover quickly from this shock to it. Instead aviation, like so many industries, will have to be supported and gently eased back to full fitness.

The full recovery I believe and hope will happen, but there will be the loss of initial capacity and with it jobs throughout the aviation sector, this will simply reflect the global economic contraction. Those currently furloughed might be thinking about whether it’s likely they will be rehired when eventually the airlines restart a limited flight schedule, or made redundant?

Honestly, no one knows how long the economy can survive a lock down.
It is quite possible that martial law and rationing will become necessary if the crisis goes into May.
We are already seeing breakdowns in international civility because the distribution of critical protective gear was not controlled appropriately, given the circumstances.
In this context, it is a stretch to speculate on the prospects for individual air carriers or aerospace equipment makers. They are small potatoes relative to others such as the auto or energy or financial industries, their fates will get determined once the big sectors have been sorted.
It is however very plausible that there will be a dramatic fall in productivity, as supply chains get deglobalized to prevent cutoffs in the future. That does not bode well for commercial air travel.

Honestly, no one knows how long the economy can survive a lock down.

100% agree. A reporter on the BBC coined the phrase "existential debate" meaning - bluntly - the cost of immediate fatality versus the cost of forthcoming fataility owing to socio-economic collapse. Some of the well-intentioned financial measures to support business in a service economy are not going to work. No rational business leader is going to borrrow money to sustain a business which has no future. Assuming this goes on for just a few more months, in the coming years the majority of the economically active part of the population will concerned with paying their mortgage and bills and putting food on the table. There will be squat for the "luxury" part of the market place which means devastation from lack of demand in the leisure and travel sectors, which form a sizeable chunk of any service economy. Not just airlines, hotels, clubs, pubs, restaraunts, any form of tourist attraction etc etc.

Governments will know this they are not dumb. They will be frantically searching for two solutions. 1. More realistic (yet still some how "affordable") business support measure, to eek out business survivability a few more months. 2. An exit strategy that gets people out of their homes and back to work. If that sounds like a statement of the obvious, maybe the implied bit is that the exit strategy is going to have to accept a level of immediate fatality higher than people might expect. In other words, I doubt we will remain locked down until this virus if a) fully under control b) we have herd immunity c) we have a vaccine. I think we will have to be out and about before any of those things happen.

Just posted elsewhere...Radio Scotland reporting that easyjet only has funds to survive to August unless they can cancel their planned aircraft orders.

(Appreciate that Stelios has been against expansion so he may be telling porkies 😉).

I think that there will be an easing for younger people quite soon- by that I mean June. I think that those over 70 and the vulnerable will be advised to self isolate for a long time - may be around a year with a few exemptions to visit family etc. That might help shops and pubs but the airline industry is in the most difficult position. It will require international agreement on the way forward and then people having the desire or funds to travel.

I really don't see any sort of demand for at least a year and any real recovery to something we recognise until 2023. Who will be left given that scenario is anybody's guess.

There are talks already to undo the "stay-at-home" restrictions in some countries pretty soon ( e.g Austria, perhaps Germany) both for economical reasons but also to get "herd" immunity on the long run . But these will not restore air travel in a matter of weeks. .
There is also some civilization / economical models which might not survive this crisis. , The create need for superfluous items that extensively relied on air transport to exist. The flower industry is one of them for instance..
Ferrying people in and out of cruise ships is another.
One of the International Organisation I work for decided to cancel all meetings/ travels in 2020. and go for virtual solutions. There are many of such examples that might either not survive, or at least take a certain time to restart. They might individually be a small percentage of traffic,but all of these put together will also have an serious impact on demand.

Liquidity and government response
 

I think it will all depend on individual airline's liquidity combined with the response of the government in which they're based. It's going to need both of these things for each airline to survive all this.

Maybe this has been touched on earlier, but in the US at least, the Federal government doesn't control the lock down. It didn't institute the shelter in place orders. The state governments did. For an edict from our Federal government telling people it's time to come out of their rabbit holes to be effective will take three things. First, the states will have to agree. Admittedly the Federal government could use bailout money to encourage them, but since those conditions aren't in the Congressional bailout authorization, it would likely face an immediate test in court. However, even if that succeeds, the second is that companies will have to agree. For the purposes of this discussion, that means that companies restart business travel and that won't happen until the business flyer is confident they won't risk death to attend a conference or make a sales call. Finally, the people themselves need to agree. And, once again, for the purposes of this discussion, that means people will start booking flights to Disneyland again.

This is all about trust, not governmental edicts, and trust in our Federal government at this moment is in short supply. Perhaps the day we can buy an n95 mask, hand sanitizer and toilet paper at our local store again, the day we don't have to stand in USSR-style lines to get in a grocery store to buy food, the day we're not seeing photos of mass graves in New York parks, the trust barometer might be high enough to make the transition.

Al Jazeera reporting that the UK is the new epicentre.

If true then it will be a wee whiley yet afore we're supping Tennants doon the local...

...relevence here?

It'll be awhile yet. Airlines with good balance books & effective lobbying...🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

A Different Poit of View
 

Living on the left coast, I guess I can understand your attitude. However, the federal government and the president lead the country, constitutionally and morally. If the president says the economy must be restarted, people will be glad to hear it and will force state governments to follow suit, where practical. This will be a rolling start up depending on the situation on the ground. In my neck of the woods there are no lines anywhere, and we don't see CNN.