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Maybe it would be easier and simpler just to retrofit cargo planes with the occasional seat? :hmm:
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Surely the 6-feet/2-metre spacing cannot be maintained when pax need to visit the toilets, or wait for toilets. Also cabin crew will continually pass close to pax in aisle seats. I can see the spacing work after a fashion in 2-4-2 becoming 1-1-1, ditto for 2-3-2. But to achieve a practical yield, airfares would need to increase by up to 65%. And more than double, on single-aisle aircraft. Another solution will need to be found.
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Originally Posted by Samju
(Post 10775209)
Is it possible for the Aircraft manufacturers to modify the seating arrangement in AC to fit into social distancing norms, instead of leaving the middle seats empty. Like, completely removing the middle rows and creating separate aisle for each column so that there is less cross overs or touching between the pax. This will boost the confidence of travelling public who may otherwise avoid air travel
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Although at the moment IATA is not recommending social distancing on board aircraft ( middle seat off) it is thinking about it : from their latest relaae :
Calls for social distancing measures on aircraft would fundamentally shift the economics of aviation by slashing the maximum load factor to 62%. That is well below the average industry breakeven load factor of 77%..With fewer seats to sell, unit costs would rise sharply. Compared to 2019, air fares would need to go up dramatically—between 43% and 54% depending on the region—just to break even. |
Air fares of pre-covid levels will in any case see 50-100% increase due to cost of additional arrangements at the airport/ in flight. Persons will travel only if necessary or if they can afford as was the case before the boom happened in this century. But this means that 30-50 % of the current fleet may operate in domestic sectors saving some Pilot jobs albeit with reduced hours and pay. An optimistic view.
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher
(Post 10775336)
Although at the moment IATA is not recommending social distancing on board aircraft ( middle seat off) it is thinking about it : from their latest relaae :
But with current average load factors on international flights ( not domestic) in the 10-15% range they will have to do something more dramatic to get people back in aircraft ... masks, disinfectants and higher air recycling rates do not seem to be enough to have the desired effect.. |
Travel restrictions will be eased shortly. Solutions to problem of gainful utilisation of empty seating can also be found.Avoiding breathing of recirculated air can also be found through oxygen masks. The airlines have to work for building up the confidence of travelers instead of crying for help or pretending helplessness.This virus is going to stay with us and solution based approach should be adopted as we have to accept that travel is not going to be same as before for a long time.
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Originally Posted by Samju
(Post 10775940)
Avoiding breathing of recirculated air can also be found through oxygen masks. .
Having spent my formative years flying around wearing a well fitting mask all the time I'd politely suggest from a psychological POVthat would be a step too for many/most regular men or women off the streets. There would also be some practical problems:, for example to avoid breathing recirculated air you couldn't use a regulator with an "airmix" setting that mixes cabin air with the bottled gas, so everything you breath would have to come out of the bottle/tank - given that have you given any thought to how much bottled air you'd need to carry, even for a short haul sector, for the passengers..the scuba divers amongst us will no doubt be able to give us a clue. If your idea is that instead of bottled gas you re-plumb/reroute an element of the Bleed air/AC system to feed the masks then aside from the engineering issue and weight problems you end up back with the psychological issues of expecting Mrs Miggins, aged 80, or master Miggins, aged 3, being expected to mask up for the flight.. |
Reference the French border closures..big press conference yesterday..unfortunately for air travel they continue..
France will keep its borders closed to all but essential travel until at least June 15th, the Interior Minister has announced. Contrary to some opinions expressed control over one's own borders is still allowed even within the EU.... |
Travel restrictions will be eased shortly. Solutions to problem of gainful utilisation of empty seating can also be found |
Originally Posted by wiggy
(Post 10775948)
:confused:
Having spent my formative years flying around wearing a well fitting mask all the time I'd politely suggest from a psychological POVthat would be a step too for many/most regular men or women off the streets. There would also be some practical problems:, for example to avoid breathing recirculated air you couldn't use a regulator with an "airmix" setting that mixes cabin air with the bottled gas, so everything you breath would have to come out of the bottle/tank - given that have you given any thought to how much bottled air you'd need to carry, even for a short haul sector, for the passengers..the scuba divers amongst us will no doubt be able to give us a clue. If your idea is that instead of bottled gas you re-plumb/reroute an element of the Bleed air/AC system to feed the masks then aside from the engineering issue and weight problems you end up back with the psychological issues of expecting Mrs Miggins, aged 80, or master Miggins, aged 3, being expected to mask up for the flight.. |
Opening borders is a prerequisite to see pax back on international flights , but it is not a guarantee that they will do so in great numbers.
The reopening of Business in Georgia (USA) last week end is showing that people are not really prepared to take risks . from an Atlanta news outlet : Georgia's Reopening Has Been 'A Disaster' For Some Retailers Desperate For Revenue “That was the worst-case scenario, especially with all the marketing we did,” Zelaya said. “The reopening weekend was a disaster. We had two customers all weekend." source : https://www.bisnow.com |
Originally Posted by Samju
(Post 10775940)
Avoiding breathing of recirculated air can also be found through oxygen masks.
On a 12 hour flight? :confused: All the various proposals to make aircraft 'safe' are simply uneconomic in the present aviation industry model. The best you can hope for is a vaccine or herd immunity - either of which will possibly take up to 2 years. |
Should the government and other agencies arrange everything in a democracy? You can also appeal to your citizenship to keep the necessary distance between others.
If it's too busy on that train and you feel you can't keep the social distance apart, get off and take the next less crowded train just like you would on a bus. These transport companies already provide extra trains and buses, only to allow you as a traveler to keep your distance. In an airplane it is different you can not compare with the above, here are the airlines that must ensure that you can always keep social distance from a fellow passenger, when boarding and disembarking, but also during the flight. This will take a lot of inspiration from the airlines, but I am sure that a solution can be found to the satisfaction of those who want to take the plane. The solution has to come, because it is now a matter of surviving for the airlines, they absolutely cannot turn their heads or cry as little babies at the ice cream shop. It's just a new world and everyone will have to put in an extra effort for a while before it can return to normal. |
Despite the lockdown, we've settled at 5000 cases per day and 600 deaths per day for almost a month. Removing the lockdown now or at any point will result in a rapid daily rise. This thing is too damn contagious. Look at this and ask yourself, even with contact tracing and testing, without a lockdown, how on earth will the number of cases reduce to below 5000 per day? I just can't see it. A vaccine is 12-18 months away, until then, what? lockdown?
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....8228d47760.png |
Exactly. That was always the issue with entering lockdown without a credible exit plan beyond hoping for an effective vaccine and/ or treatment to be developed in an incredibly short timescale. Lockdown for the long term is simply not a feasible solution.
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At the beginning of April they were testing 10K people a day. Now they are testing around 100K people a day. The number of cases being found now likely reflects the number of people being tested rather than a static number of cases in the country.
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That's a valid point but one I've not heard anyone from ourleadership mention.
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Originally Posted by IBE8720
(Post 10777029)
Can someone explain to me why ONLY the airline industry, according to the experts on this site, will have to enforce social distancong rules?
I am sitting on a train sharing a cabin with 4 complete strangers. To get to the train station, I took a bus from the airport. On the bus, 3 or 4 people at least rubbed shoulders with me moving around. On the plane, I had people sitting within arms length distance of other passengers the entire flight. To get to the plane, we were loaded onto a bus, standing room only. And there would have had to be 30-40 people o that bus. I totally agree - if Social Distancing is required then it is as required on public transport as it is on an airplane. Which is why I dont understand some of the other rules that have been brought in in London. We have seen pavements widened by taking away one lane of traffic, they are talking about more roads blocked off for pedestrians, longer red light waits, more cycle lanes etc - all of these are going to increase congestion for cars at precisely the time when you want people to swap from public transport to private vehicles to allow for social distancing. There doesn't seem to be an awful lot of joined up thinking. |
Never lose hope (after the dip)
Hello, my aviation friends!
Times are hard for aviators, and so for me! My type rating with a European airline was stopped right in the middle of the simulator part in March and I don't know what will happen next. That's why I share this video. It shows the airlines with the highest revenue in the world from 1995 - 2020. You can clearly see some huge decreases (for example during the crisis in 2008), but you know what? After the dip there was always a huge spike up! So don't lose hope for the following months/years. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QxbpZ4tvOqc&lc=UgymdFBbSp-zCu5xAN14AaABAg Airlines with the highest revenue 1995 - 2020 |
Boeing CEO predicts coronavirus pandemic will claim a major U.S. airline. He didn't name namesDawn GilbertsonUSA TODAY 9:11 pm May 11, 2020 With anemic passenger counts and no signs travel will rebound quickly from the coronavirus pandemic, airlines are fighting for their financial lives. They're looking everywhere but the couch cushions to raise badly needed cash and the threat looms of major layoffs this fall. Boeing CEO David Calhoun thinks one major U.S. carrier won't survive. Calhoun, who replaced the plane maker's longtime CEO in January in the wake of the prolonged 737 Max crisis, made the prediction to NBC "Today" co-anchor Savannah Guthrie. Guthrie, in an interview scheduled to air on the network Tuesday, asked Calhoun if "there might be a major U.S. carrier that just has to go out of business?'' "Yes, most likely,'' Calhoun said. He didn't name names or define "major" airline in the 22-second snippet NBC shared ahead of the full interview. Calhoun told Guthrie passenger traffic levels will not be back to 100% by this fall, when payroll protection for employees under the CARES Act runs out. Airlines have said they will have to cut payroll costs to survive if business doesn't rebound by then. "They won't even be back to 25 (%),'' Calhoun said. "Maybe by the end of the year we approach 50 (%). So there will definitely be adjustments that have to be made on the part of the airlines.'' |
did you watch it ? anything interesting ? in an interview to Richard quest in CNN Al Baker on Monday , CEO from Qatar declared it will take at least 3 years for Qatar airways to rebound How to weather the storm is the critical thing for any airline today .
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Excellent new editorial from IFALPA on the future post Covid-19 :
https://www.ifalpa.org/media/3536/so...1-may-2020.pdf |
That’s one of the most eloquent articles I’ve read in recent years regarding our industry. It need to be forwarded to law makers in all areas to make it happen.
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher
(Post 10781585)
Excellent new editorial from IFALPA on the future post Covid-19 :
https://www.ifalpa.org/media/3536/so...1-may-2020.pdf |
Originally Posted by ATC Watcher
(Post 10781007)
did you watch it ? anything interesting ? in an interview to Richard quest in CNN Al Baker on Monday , CEO from Qatar declared it will take at least 3 years for Qatar airways to rebound How to weather the storm is the critical thing for any airline today .
The follow-up article to the airing of the interview is below. In the lede of the video in the article link the announcer proudly boasts that the prediction in Ms. Guthrie's inverview of Mr. Calhoun sent shockwaves through Wall Street and airline offices. Coronavirus pandemic could force a major U.S. airline out of business, says Boeing CEO"Something will happen when September comes around. Traffic levels will not be back to 100 percent. They won't even be back to 25 percent. So there will definitely be adjustments that have to be made on the part of the airlines," David Calhoun said.May 12, 2020, 7:53 AM EDT By Lucy Bayly The airline industry is having an "apocalyptic" moment that could force a major U.S. carrier out of business, said David Calhoun, president and CEO of Boeing, in an interview with Savannah Guthrie on NBC's "TODAY" show that aired on Tuesday morning. "The threat to the airline industry is grave. There's no question about it. And apocalyptic does actually accurately describe the moment," Calhoun said of the impact of the coronavirus. The airline industry raked in record profits for a decade, due to lower jet fuel prices and consolidation through a series of mergers. That ended with the coronavirus pandemic, which has devastated the industry and has led to a 95 percent drop in air travel demand. American Airlines, United, Southwest and Delta all reported huge quarterly losses, their first in years. Airline executives have said the pandemic is the industry’s worst crisis, and have compared its impact to the events of September 11. Despite billions of dollars in emergency funding as part of the government's CARES Act, the future for the industry remains uncertain, with many airline executives forecasting traffic will not return to prior levels for three to five years, leading to questions about the survival of some major carriers. "I don't want to get too predictive on that subject. But yes, most likely," Calhoun said when asked if he thought a major U.S. carrier would have to go out of business. "Something will happen when September comes around. Traffic levels will not be back to 100 percent. They won't even be back to 25 percent. So there will definitely be adjustments that have to be made on the part of the airlines," Calhoun said. The air travel experience will be very different, he acknowledged. While he recommended that regulators require face masks, he said the interior of a plane's cabin was nonetheless "designed to prevent transmission of exactly this kind of airborne carrier." "The cabin itself replaces its air every two to three minutes," he said. "By the time you layer those protections, and you consider the responsible actions of the public themselves, I believe you do gradually get back to the same level of confidence that we've had before." Calhoun told the "TODAY" show he does not share the same view on the future of airlines as does billionaire investor Warren Buffet, who recently sold his entire $4 billion stake in U.S. airlines. Buffett said at the time he did not think people would fly as many passenger miles as they did last year. “The world has changed for the airlines," Buffett said earlier this month at the annual shareholder meeting for his investment firm, Berkshire Hathaway. "I don’t know if Americans have now changed their habits or will change their habits because of the extended period.” "I don't happen to share the view," Calhoun told Guthrie. "I share the near-term turmoil. Near-term for me doesn't mean a few months. I believe it's three full years before we return to the traffic levels that we had just in 2019, and then probably another two before we begin to return to the growth rates that we used to have. And I'm hopeful that somewhere between here and there, there's a vaccine, and that the moment of high anxiety begins to really subside. But I still believe in the future of the industry." Guthrie also questioned Calhoun about the future of Boeing itself. The company's troubled 737 Max jet fleet remains grounded worldwide, after two crashes led to hundreds of fatalities. "In remembrance of the two accidents, which were as real as can be, our heartfelt sorrows to everybody who was touched by those accidents," Calhoun said. "We made a bad assumption, with respect to the design envelope for that airplane, at that moment in time, under that condition. Our assumption about how a pilot would react in a very tense, difficult moment was wrong. Simple as that. But I do believe that has been fixed. I also believe in the culture at Boeing. I believe — actually, all of our employees believe — deeply in safety. And have we taken a magnifying glass to everything we do, everything, so that we don't ever allow for something like that to happen in the future." "I am confident in the Max," Calhoun said. "The certification work, the FAA's work, has been as thorough as anything I've ever seen. We've worked every scenario we can possibly work into the testing programs. And it does exceedingly well." Calhoun also spoke proudly of how "magical" it was for Boeing to be helping out during the pandemic, delivering front-line emergency supplies. "The pilots who fly these airplanes around the world, to deliver these supplies, it's our front line helping the health care front line," Calhoun said. "It's pretty magical when it happens, and it is wildly motivating for me, of course, but mostly for our people. And they need that kind of motivation." |
Friend who is owed money by Thai Airways just received an email reputedly from the Thai High Court stating they have filed for bankruptcy.
Nothing on the news, anyone else received the email or can confirm, or is this part of the restructuring to wipe its debts with creditors? I know the Thai government said they would save them and allow them to restructure in mid-May, with the hearings due to start in August, and has started applying to the courts around the world to protect their assets from seizure. https://uk.reuters.com/article/thai-...-idUKL4N2DM2AE https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tran...s-from-seizure |
Yes, got the email too. Presumably because I'm a Thai frequent flyer/miles holder. They're bankrupt basically, that's the gist. Absolutely no surprise there.
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Originally Posted by Flying Clog
(Post 10809762)
Yes, got the email too. Presumably because I'm a Thai frequent flyer/miles holder. They're bankrupt basically, that's the gist. Absolutely no surprise there.
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ec652e761.jpeg https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6cf0ce1ce7.png Looks similar to Chapter 11 protection?? |
For sure. Thai Airways is a basket case. But we've all known that for years. Whether they'll survive this crisis in any way, shape, or form is anyone's guess. Probably not for the best if they do, just for national pride's sake maybe..
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Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 10809308)
Friend who is owed money by Thai Airways just received an email reputedly from the Thai High Court stating they have filed for bankruptcy.
Nothing on the news, anyone else received the email or can confirm, or is this part of the restructuring to wipe its debts with creditors? I know the Thai government said they would save them and allow them to restructure in mid-May, with the hearings due to start in August, and has started applying to the courts around the world to protect their assets from seizure. https://uk.reuters.com/article/thai-...-idUKL4N2DM2AE https://thethaiger.com/hot-news/tran...s-from-seizure What is unbelievable is today TG announced all staff would be safe for the next year whilst they 'rehabilitate' the airline. Seems they are still content to bleed cash whilst holding onto everyone's money. No attempt to cut costs at all and just on going delays to any form of long overdue change. |
I started this thread exactly 6 months ago, so time to reflect on it :
Most of us are still there , not everyone is at work , but not many of us have been fired or furloughed yet . Only very few , mostly small ,airlines have collapsed as a result of the crisis, mainly due to vast state aid programs . Boeing and Airbus are still there and still manufacturing aircraft , albeit at a reduced rate.. Now where are we 6 months later? : Traffic worldwide is at 45% of 2019 levels, international and long haul is down 70--80% . Load factors are in the 45-50% and States travel restrictions are growing . Today everybody seem to agree that the crisis will last until 2024 at best. The forecast is not very good for what is likely to happen in the meantime : Existing airlines, especially the legacy ones will become smaller , some even much smaller , a few may collapse, and many airports will have to cease operations . This winter will be hard for everyone . So the question is rather now : who will survive the next 6 months ? |
Originally Posted by ATC Watcher
(Post 10882097)
This winter will be hard for everyone . So the question is rather now : who will survive the next 6 months ?
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Looks like 6 months is nothing on the grant scheme of things. More interesting who will still be here in 60 months. Even when recovery of previous traffic levels occurs, that still doesn't equal an all-clear. There will inevitably be someone who will succumb to their elevated ambitions to make use of the situation, eventually releasing all their ground to those who adopt a somewhat more conservative, but also more sustainable approach short-term. Think Small Planet back in the day. Great overall market, sudden availability of aircraft from Air Berlin, they tried to make use of the opportunity and choked on it within less than a year.
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Originally Posted by PilotLZ
(Post 10882351)
Looks like 6 months is nothing on the grant scheme of things. More interesting who will still be here in 60 months.
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The Highlands of the UK has never looked so appealing for skiing as it does now.... :)
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