Here are today's stats for State of Massachusetts:
Number of positive cases - 108
Number confirmed positive - 6
Number of pending positive - 102
Number of hospitalizations - 10
Number of investigations to determine if hospitalization is required - 9
Patients not hospitalized - 89
Number of deaths - 0
Total number of people subjected to quarantine - 1,083
Number in quarantine - 445
Number completed quarantine - 638

Interesting to note that of the 108 confirmed cases, 89 resulted from a Biogen conference, 5 from travel, 8 from medical center compromise, 13 under investigation.

Not extra deaths, just attributed deaths. An already underlying death rate. would have taken us out any way. So show me the difference in total death rate for all causes in the next year and compare it to past years to make a point of how potent this really is.

No, not deceiving. It just demonstrates that there are several legitimate ways of calculating "death rate" or "probability of dying", depending on what you choose as the denominator.

Italy got into the unenviable situation that the health system was overwhelmed. Not to say that it cannot happen elsewhere. Once it is overwhelmed they have to turn to triage and that basically means that mortality goes up a lot as you simply stop helping those cases beyond a certain threshold, to preserve the available system for those where it makes most sense. Yes, that is usually done in war and not in a western country, but it can, and in this case, it did and does happen. Basically: Young and a good chance to survive? Get all the help you need. Old and very low chance? No more care, happy dieing.

Italy will look like a walk in a park when **** hits the fan in the UK and USA.

Italy took extreme measures as soon as they had first confirmed case. UK and the USA are lagging far behind the reaction curve.

Also remember that the number of detected cases vs. the actual number of cases will be very different. This will depend on the number of people tested for example. Look at the different test rates across different countries, it varies very widely.

This link provides some interesting info: https://informationisbeautiful.net/v...w3X9GierRrd6w4

I sincerely hope I will be able to do that ;)

Hi,

For credible information on the number of cases Johns Hopkins University has been coordinating global information:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Todays stats 13 March 20 2:15pm:
Confirmed cases: 137,066
Recovered: 69,643
Died: 5,069

Or ... the UK's NHS is expecting 1/5 (20%) of the population to become infected. The WHO is reporting global mortality rates amongst infected individuals to be 3.4% (The Lancet has it higher at 5.7%).

For the UK alone, if the NHS & WHO numbers are correct, with a population of 66.4 million, that’s 13m infections with a mortality of over 451,000 (that's roughly the population of Cardiff, or Miami)

In the US, population 327 million, that equates to 65 million infections (equal to the entire population of the UK) and 2.2 million additional deaths (approx the population of Paris, or Houston).

Flu kills about 600,000 globally per annum.

But yes, wash your hands.

JAS

No - the USA is far behind.

The UK has consciously chosen to take a somewhat different approach: actually listening to the scientists rather than worrying about any forthcoming elections. They accept that people will die, but they also accept that most people will be exposed to the virus at some point soon, and actually want that to happen so that they get to the point of "herd immunity" and the risk of a second wave of infections is much reduced. The essence of the UK's strategy is to curtail people's quality of life and economic activity as little as possible whilst trying to manage levels to the point where the NHS is stressed, but not overwhelmed.

Personally, I approve, and shall Keep Calm and Carry On.

Your stats are mostly wrong. The one that is sort of accurate is that 1/5 of us will get it... 20%... that's the low end of figures with many saying as high as 60% but lets go with your 20%. The rest of the numbers are just wrong. 14% of cases require hospitalization. 5% of total cases require an ICU and a ventilator. 1% are dying (higher in countries where hospitals have been overrun like Italy where it is 3-4%). Let's take 20% of the US population... that's 65.5 million that will have it in a year... 9.2 million will be hospitalized and 655,000 will die. That's the US alone and again assumes only 1/5 will get it. That's using all the CDC and WHO's latest numbers. We only have 350,000 open hospital beds nationwide for the 9.2 million also, when the hospitals get overrun the mortality rate worldwide climbs from 1 to 3-4+% so it can get worse.

Heard the official advise in germany, where testing is easy to come by and, as the originator of the most widely used test, has been available quite early. The health institute (Robert-Koch-Institute) expects that around 60 to 70% of the population will be infected as long as no vaccination is available as there is no immunity against it and that is the figure needed for herd immunity. That said, quite a large number of the infected will not display any symptoms, therefore will usually not be tested, generating quite a large hidden number of infected and spreading persons. Of those positively tested around 20% will develop into a severe case. Although germany has quite a large number of ICU beds available, current guidelines are there to flatten the curve and spread the bulk of the severe cases over a longer time (but a lower number at any given time). That said, due to its federal structure central government has only limited powers to enforce any of the advise, it has to be put into action within any of the states individually.

(My bold on the quote)
ATC Watcher's topic is about the airlines industry, not about human death rate stats hamster wheel...
There is already a pretty long topic about it on Jetblast.

Jail wasn't good enough for those w**kers!

I do not know how, but among survival ones will be Alitalia.

Thanks ,ehwatezedoing , exactly . Maybe my thread title was poorly phrased as when I mean "survive" I mean who will still be there with a job in 6 months , and which /how aviation business will overcome the next 6 months.
If we want to discuss statistics , plenty of web sites giving us that .
Singapurcanac : I like your sense of humor , but you probably are right ,they are likely to get massive State aid and survive us all. You have to admire Italians sense of resilience .:E.

Denti's talking epidemiology:ok:

Covid19 spreads like the common cold; so, a strong probability just about all of us will be exposed to it over the next few years. Identified cases tend to be the severe ones, but at least that denominator (positive tests) is known. Silent infections are likely a much larger denominator that we don't really know at present.

As for a vaccine, they've been trying for many decades to develop one against a fellow coronavirus, the common cold.

Does anyone know what's happening at Air France? Traditionally, an exceptionally secure and strong workforce.

This is what bothers me about the herd immunity plan.

Suppose the UK has 10,000 ICU beds. Suppose each person with corona virus who needs one takes up 5 days.

Then there can be 2000 new ICU admissions per day.

If the fraction of people with the virus who end up needing an ICU bed is 5%, that means the infection rate has to be kept below 40,000 per day.

To get to herd immunity in the UK, 60% of people have to get the virus, around 40 million people.

To do this without overwhelming the NHS then takes 1000 days, or roughly three years.

But the idea is to get herd immunity in place by the Autumn.

This thread should be taken as a prime example of restricting ourselves to what we do best, surreptitiously farting during night flights and moaning about house prices, audi drivers and our awful rosters.

If/when we get to the point that a large proportion of people have had it and been asymptomatic/recovered/died, there won’t be a need to restrict travel as it’ll be everywhere. It’ll need something to kick-start aviation again, like after 9/11...

oh dear, manage the NHS stress levels, right at this moment there are no ICU availability in the north of England. Well that was around 16.30. The NHS which is one of the very best services in the world is totally stressed now never mind any additional demand. Realistically please expect, major mortality rates in the UK. We all on here are worried and so concerned with our business appear to disregard the negative effects upon the population of significant deaths, that are inevitable.

The NHS is a great service, however after 10 years of austerity and chronic underfunding, not in a good shape. Compared to other countries in Europe the number of ICU beds per 100.000 people, while varying per region of course, is even on an average level extremely low. The UK has 6.6, France 9.7, Italy (!) 12.5 and Germany 29.2. Currently the number of cases in the UK are still very low, once it starts to spread in earnest, it will be very interesting indeed.

I seem to remember, possibly in Tony B'Liar's time that the number of active hospital beds were reduced to improve the NHS. Something to do with management efficiency. Does anyone else remember this? I lived in Europe then but certain I have the correct thread... in hope... having lost it now.

The most truthful reply in this thread. But then again, this place is no different to the rest of the internet, just like the non-millennial are no different to the millennials...

Look, guys, testing is only being used to advise clinical procedures. It's not being done for statistical purposes - they're not out to test the mild cases! Only the potentially problematic ones, so that it can inform care decisions. The real mortality is found in China & South Korea, who have gotten over the curve and have started testing mild ones. They too had massive CFRs in the 20s & 10s % initially, until they could shift focus from triaging. 1% is bad enough, we don't need this fear-mongering. Once the statistical models will catch up in Italy, I am sure we will see the mortality rate head south of 3%, or potentially lower. Measuring only 'closed' cases is just as flawed as measuring open ones. We can only use the data from complete outbreaks and anyone trying otherwise is just trying to do PhD level statistics with pub logic.

Focus on your flying. Save up money. Make back up plans if you're about to be made redundant. Everyone take a deep breath, relax, look after your loved ones and hope this bug doesn't rear it's head again in the near future.

Real LPT is always in the comments. Couldn't have put it better myself. This comment should be stickied at the top of every page on this bloody forum

To our grandfathers they asked them to go to war...to us they only ask to sit at our home sofa!

Thinks about it please...Peace!

good grief, why would you want anyone to comment on who will still be in business or not ?

(ps it's 'epidemic' not 'endemic')

Television today: 100 times more likely to die from Corona virus than ordinary flue.

Because I spend hours of every day reading science, or Boeing, empiricism is a word I've had drummed into me. I can find no such ratio tonight, but I've an uncomfortable feeling that the conversion to pneumonia has a dangerously high ratio.

As posted on the Filter thread, I became very angry with the press hijacking a minister by crowding his progress. I can hear the cries of 'Oh, badly played. Or, beastly bad show.' but on behalf of the politician, I really wanted to silence that screaming moron with an action that would have stopped her spraying a potentially lethal mist at me. I suppose thrusting her microphone in her mouth would be considered bad form.

https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/...l#post10711985

Slowly, slowly I'm beginning to feel I'm not the only one that puts airborne particles at the top of the list of infection communication - by a long mile.

The North of Italy has got one of the best NHS systems in the world (it is the opposite in the South), this is in addition to having one of the highest number of intensive care beds vs 100K of population compared to the rest of the world. This is a serious and very worrying sign of what COVID-19 can do in any other country. The biggest problem now is the impact that COVID-19 will have on any travel related business as global travel will soon be completely banned as we have never seen it before. Airlines, Hotels, Travel Companies, Events Companies, etc will have zero cash flow imminently as transactions have collapsed by a magnitude that has never been seen before. Millions of jobs will be lost as other industries will collapse due to the absence of travel, e.g. airline manufacturers will also temporarily close down, whilst national airlines will have to be nationalized again,all other airlines will disappear. If governments will not step in quickly to support the millions of people losing their jobs then we will also see civil unrest and riots. This prediction seems probably unreal now however it is the first time in my life that I genuinely believe this could be the 3rd WW we have all been waiting for. This time is really scary. Good luck to all of us. The economic collapse is as scary as the massive loss of lives that COVID-19 will cause. Covid-19-->Health emergency/Pandemic-->Banned Global travel-->Travel related businesses collapsing--->Civil unrest. This prediction is not pure pessimism. Governments will have to inject lots of cash to save travel related businesses. Central banks can just produce unlimited e-Money and transfer to Companies, let's hope they will start asap to avoid chaos. So who will survive in 6 months? Only those helped by the Governments, all the others will disappear.

My two cents::

1. Containment works to slow the virus as is happening now in China, Taiwan, Singapore and a few other places.
2. Containment will slow the virus in Italy too, even if that doesn't appear to be the case today.
3. Ultimately the virus may affect quite a lot of people worldwide. But we will overcome. I am hoping what they say that about 80pct of people infected will suffer not much more than a bad cold and not require hospital treatment. The 20pct who do require hospitalization, unfortunately not all of these (depending on available care) will make it.
4. The greater tragedy and danger will be social unrest resulting in lack of food, and water . Also very important lack of income.

We should contain the virus as much as we can in a controlled manner as much as possible, but when a large number of people have gotten sick and containment is no longer an option, we should all get back to work doing what we do and keep the wheels turning on Society. The wheels must turn or else people will starve. We can make it. I am confident we will survive this once in a hundred year viral crisis, we need to remain strong.

True, well caught.

I’ve seen this compared to 9/11 a lot but in terms of the bounce back there will (provided people still have their jobs -big question) be a lot of pent up demand. Don’t forget that in 2001 people had just watched a commercial airliner plough deliberately into a skyscraper in New York, psychologically horrifying as it was just unimaginable at that time. People were physically scared of getting on an aircraft because of these images’ effect on the psyche. Now the fear is largely confined to not being able to get back from their destinations if a quarantine/lockdown is put in place. If those have been lifted then there’s not much to actually dissuade people from starting to travel again aside from the money in their wallet which, as I said earlier, is the big factor here.

Yes some colds are caused by coronaviruses, but most are caused by rhinoviruses.

Europe will go on lockdown, the UK will finally wake up and do the same and then the USA will be the epicentre of the outbreak and the EU will ban flights from the USA.

Can I have one bucket of sand please.

People refer to 2001 9/11 because their remember it . I am ( unfortunately) old enough to remember the 1973-74 oil embargo crisis , and this is much more similar .

It started with a crash of the stock exchange following an oil embargo to certain countries, Netherlands was one of them and this is where I was living at the time . Flights were banned , aircraft grounded, , cars prohibited to drive on Sundays , heating oil and electricity was rationed with tickets, and emergency powers given to Governments to impose prison sentences to citizens not following the new rules.. Social unrest followed , government fell and fortunately it stopped right in time to avoid complete chaos The whole story you can read on Internet..
Travel bans looks great on TV to appease public opinion but are creating far more issues than what they are suppose to achieve. the virus is already present everywhere it does not stop at the borders.,But our Industry is the first one that is hit by those bans
.
As the Chinese A350 bringing expertise and respirators to Italy showed yesterday , Aviation is not spreading the virus , it will be essential to fight it too...so let's keep it up while it still can..

Well this makes a change. Everything is normally the fault of crewing and ops!