From the NATS website:

Restrictions extended till 1300 Sat. Our company are telling us that NATS are using a computer model based on a Canadian eruption from the past. This eruption had different ash densities to the current Icelandic one. Upshot is they are pressurising NATS to rethink the model. Personally I don't rate their chances.

BBC News just announced no flights until 1300 Saturday. 2100 Friday.

Another BIG explosion just took place:eek:

Eyjafjallajökull frá Hvolsvelli

If you have trouble viewing the webcam(s) this happened minutes ago:

http://i904.photobucket.com/albums/a...9/current8.jpg

Another webcam


Vodafone.is - Eruption in Iceland 2010

At concentrations already known to affect jet turbine blades, radar detection is probably not feasible. The primary way that volcanic ash clouds are detected involves multiband infrared sensors. One example is discussed here.

Using a conventional definition of "carbon footprint" (such as this one), the volcano's is nil, because its emissions are not the result of human activity. Furthermore, as long as significant ash releases continue to occur, the climatic impact of this erruption is self-offsetting because atmospheric ash has a stronger cooling effect than CO2 has a warming effect.

@thetimesreader84,

Ash cloud has very little moisture and typically not practicable to track effectively with radar. In blunt terms: it tend to be invisible.

etherate
 

I thought the earlier post with the satellite image of the actual plume was telling. Surely with modern technology of satellite imagery, the airspace closure could be narrowed down significantly to just the areas closest to the plume for avoidance? One wonders if we might be slightly over-reacting just a tad.
As I recall in Eric Moody's encounter (based on the chapter "Strange Encounter" in the book "Emergency") the BA009 flew very close to the volcanic ash cloud and not 700 miles away from the eruption as is most of UK airspace.
With the significantly dispersed cloud tracking over the UK there must be a much lower risk of contamination.
One problem is nobody seems to have any data as to acceptable or permitted levels of ash concentration affecting jet engines.

The other big problem, it now seems to me; is that someone is going to have to make a very difficult decision as to when to re-commence operations against an extremely hard to gauge risk of engine failure caused by volcanic ash penetration. I don't envy those who are going to have to take that one !

Yes, it is. Depending upon the density of ash it can be visible on the cm scale, but for concentrations similar to those over northern europe you need a mm radar.
This is quite an interesting read on the subject:
http://www.ece.mtu.edu/faculty/wfp/articles/diel8.pdf

The best way to detect the ash is with lidar rather than radar, though. Only one is operational now, but there's currently a proposal to reactivate a few space based lidars for north sea/iceland overpasses. Not an easy job though and by the time the beauracracy has percolated it'll probably be too late.

Aircraft are incapable of detecting the ash (unless they're lucky enough to eyeball it). The wx radar on almost all aircraft uses too long a wavelength, so you'd need an very dense cloud.
I'm also not sure how an aircraft radar would deal with volcanic ash. It behaves differently to rain, etc, so there's a chance that much of the information could be filtered out in software before it even reached the cockpit. I don't know enough to comment further on that though.

It's actually carbon negative right now due to the lack of aviation. ;)
Not sulpher negative though, and I have no idea how this affects the weather...ash is a rather good absorber of sunlight.

(edit)Which is what has happened. The plume is currently sitting over most of northern Europe. Worst concentrations (thick enough for me to see without the need for fancy computer software) are over the West coast of Norway, central England, southern Sweden and Holland. There's a few bits of something that looks like thick ash over Germany too, but I can't tell if it's ash or a very strange cloud.
As of an hour ago Iceland is more or less clear by the looks of things.

Still spewing out seconds ago:

http://i904.photobucket.com/albums/a.../current13.jpg

Vodafone.is - Eruption in Iceland 2010

And how far away from Iceland is Finnish Airspace....look at the engines from the Finnish Air Force F-18 posted earlier?

Why do so many people do not just simply grasp the fact it's there even if yoou can't see it?

They are much much smaller - which is the entire problem. That's why we can't see them and that's why they are a problem for aviation. Small things clog up small holes. Aircraft aren't really designed to deal with ash, even sand and dust particles are much bigger than what is spewing out of that volcano.

For those interested, to draw your own conclusions on wether the no fly zone by Eurocontrol is waranted or not. To give some perspective Mt Eyjafjallajökull is 1666m/5465,8 ft.

This camera is located aprox 35km west of the mountain

http://http://eldgos.mila.is/eyjafja...thorolfsfelli/

Incredible sight on the webcams at the moment. This is far worse than Tuesday's event. If you can't view the webcams, I'm happy to take screen grabs and post here. Maybe mods are ok with this? I'm sure some won't be able to view the 'cams..

22 Degree Halo, how is it possible that on your picture at 21 GMT is so bright as it is midday? I don't get that... please explain it to us, thanks in advance! :}

It looks St.Petersburg and Moscow airports still operating at full capacity even they are shown in the affected area?
And why we don't hear about dozens of crashes there?

GfaRm

Are you saying this clock is wrong?
http://i904.photobucket.com/albums/a.../current13.jpg

Top right.

Btw, it's getting dark now ;)

Vodafone.is - Eruption in Iceland 2010

Look at the time - 30 mins later

Nobody should expect crashes - "only" damage to the engines, which is enough not to fly!

sunrise/sunset in Iceland (Reykjavik).
 

For info: sunrise/sunset

16 Apr 2010 05:53 21:04

20 Jun 2010 02:55 00:04:ok:

22 Dec 2010 11:23 15:30:\

Position for Reykjavik is 64°08′N 21°56′W

Local time: UTC

PICTURES: Finnish F-18 engine check reveals effects of volcanic dust-16/04/2010-London-Flightglobal.com

http://www.flightglobal.com/assets/g...x?ItemID=33774
http://www.flightglobal.com/assets/g...x?ItemID=33775

Dornier 228 has been up to sample the air at various levels, The expert quoted "there's a lot of muck up there " and " Not a place for big jets" paraphrased.

Nuff said, went up, inspected, deemed not safe.


Update. ROBDEAN below found the link thanks,

to quote

A high-tech plane with sensors calibrated to find volcanic ash has landed after finding 'a lot of muck' in UK airspace.

Aeronautical engineer Dr Guy Gratton of Airborne Atmospheric Measurements, said he would advise against flying passenger jets in those conditions.

Source: BBC News.

To all of you doubters and naysayers out there, please stop for one moment think of it this way:

As an airline executive or pilot faced with a go/no go decision, could you make a decision to go into an area which is forecast, under a best case scenario, to cause damage to some of the most expensive components on your aircraft (engines)? I'm not an engineer, but I am lead to believe that a hot section inspection is not cheap, let alone hot + cold and replacing defective parts! (For evidence of this occurring, please see Finnish Military pictures above).

The worst case scenario is that you lose an aircraft and crew. Strictly from a business point of view, and aside from all of the damage to your airlines' reputation, the sheer monetary loss would be astronomical. I dare say that no insurance company will cover your loss for deliberately flying into (forecast and completely avoidable) dangerous meteorological conditions.

Also, as has been said before:

"Its much better to be down here wishing you're up there than to be up there wishing you're down here."

and

"Superior Airmanship is the application of superior judgement to ensure use of the airmans' superior skills is not required"

You may be interested in a report of a coastguard helicopter flight through the ash yesterday. See this report

Some parts of Russian airspace should have been closed more then 24 hours ago, when ash started to propagate it's airspace. !! Yesterday !! night crews around Moscow reported St Elmo's Fire (visible electrical discharges) at altitudes from 2500 to 11000 feet (therefore ash IS there). All Russian airspace remains fully open despite that more then 24 hours has passed since data came that ash IS there. That's insane!

Officials from Russian meteorological service said that "they have no accurate measuring equipment since 90's and rely on western colleges for ash forecasts" Still, they don't follow those forecasts and keep all FIR's open (except for Kaliningrad - the one on the far west, between Lithuania and Poland).

I bet if we have fatal accident resulting from ash, then in will happen in Russia. Total disregard for safety.

$200,000,000 a day loss....
 

No flights, no revenue, no jobs. Because of the nature of this disaster, loss to the business of public air travel will not be recovered. Jobs may have to be cut. You know it and I know it.

Already happening at SAS :uhoh:

SAS warns of 2,500 temporary lay-offs due to grounded flights - Yahoo! News UK

GSLOC
 

During my many thousands of worldwide flying hours I often experienced St Elmo's Fire. Are you saying that I spent a significant time of my flying career flying through volcanic ash?

Kind regards

S

Where does the buck stop?
 

We need to know who took the decision to shutdown ALL (I stress ALL) British commercial aviation and the reasons for doing so. No whitewash will be acceptable. This is far too serious a threat to the British airline industry.

St Elmo's Fire alone is not an evidence for ash, however encounters i'am describing happened exactly in defined areas on that VA chart at specified time. Combination of these strongly suggests that ash is in russian airspace, and been there for at least 24 hours. Countries like Bulgaria had shut their FIRs long before cloud even approached state's boundaries. Russian airspace is wide open regardless of all signs that ash cloud almost now into 1/3 of it's territory and moving further...

BA284
 

Local news in SFO reporting BA284 dispatched to Scotland about 10 minutes ago? Best of luck to them.

Why this sudden demand for trial by media in realtime? Let the professionals at NATS / CAA / Met Office do their job, and consider after the event.

We have seen the real damage on the Finnish aircraft...

One of the links on the thread suggested 5-20x denser than the plume that hit the NASA DC8.

Different volcano...different silica content...pick up the geography textbook...:}

Check out Vodafone.is - Eruption in Iceland 2010 Friday 16th April 2100-2105hrs GMT. Certainly erupting a lot still.

You conspiracy theorists just won't let go will you. Despite separate confirmed reports from aircraft which have been up there and showed us all the damage sustained and the reports from crew, you still maintain it's all a big storm in a teacup, just because you can't see ash particles on a piece of paper on the ground. And now there's a whitewash going on?

Unbelievable. :ugh::ugh:

NATS - You truly are world leaders
 

Thank you NATS for being the only people around here to have the b*lls to put your money where your mouth is and make a very difficult decision that will ultimately, probably have saved lives by being the first ANSP to close their airspace to all aircraft. An unprecedented decision which it took the rest of Europe many hours to follow and could not have been an easy decision to take bearing in mind all the flak it was bound to generate. I hope at some time in the future the person who ultimately took that brave decision will be recognised and acknowledged.

On the beach

Latest ash forecast (as of 0000z) is available
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1271463398.png

Doesn't look hopeful for today.

Given that this ash cloud didn't suddenly appear over the UK on 15 April, anyone aware of any preliminary discussions and plans amongst the airlines, CAA, METS, NATS, etc. for potential disruptions and options? I realize the options would probably be limited to deadheading equipment out and forewarning passengers (and selling stock), but it seems some planning could have or may have taken place.

Or did the jetstream just eddy south unexpectedly and suddenly?

Not a conspiracy theorist, and not pointing fingers at any organizations, just wondering why this slow moving ash cloud suddenly seemed to be a major issue with little to no forewarning -- or was that just a function of the press reportage?

sure, and NATS is also responsible for all of Scandinavia, Benelux, France, Germany, and, and, and shutting down. Do you honestly think they did it without real reason? :ugh:

Not only the airline industry and travel agencies, but think of all the freight not getting delivered where it's supposed to be.

It's a MESS!

We can only hope the winds change direction.... and soon!

Big eruptions again this morning (UK & Iceland time)

Eyjafjallajökull frá Hvolsvelli

Vodafone.is - Eruption in Iceland 2010

Eyjafjallajökull frá Valahnúk

If you don't believe me, as when you view it's quiet again, I have saved the images ;)

for those who enjoy complaining.... here's Switzerland:

A0182/10 - DUE TO VOLCANIC ACT IN ICELAND AND THE RESULTING ASHCLOUDS IN THE
FIR SWITZERLAND, ALL CIVIL IFR AND VFR OPS ARE SUSPENDED.
POLICE, SAR AND HEL EMERG MEDICAL SER FLT ARE EXEMPTED.
SFC/UNL. 16 APR 21:59 2010 UNTIL 17 APR 07:00 2010. CREATED: 16 APR 14:15 2010

A0179/10 - EXP CLOSURE OF SWISS AIRSPACE AND SUSPENSION OF ALL CIVIL IFR AND
VFR OPS FM 1004162200 DUE TO VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD.
SFC/UNL. 16 APR 11:54 2010 UNTIL 19 APR 23:59 2010 ESTIMATED. CREATED: 16 APR
11:54 2010

Not even VFR allowed.