|
..."scientific"...
Pace
Interesting statement about the scientific “level” of the said NASA DC-8 ash encounter “paper”. While this paper originally is part of thousands of “studies” and “reports” on the NASA Technical Report Server (NTRS), it can now be found nearly “everywhere” for known reasons. It seems, that your knowledge level and insight what scientific research work and analysis is really about is quite dim. While a pilot’s license puts you in the front seat of a complex and remarkable man-made machine, it unfortunately lacks the intellectual capabilities and skills of a profound Ph.D degree and experience in either engineering or natural sciences. The retroactive blaming of all aviation authorities, VAACs and its associated scientific advisors and risk management teams in order to follow the media mainstream is therefore a direct result of this lack of core knowledge. Better work on the quality rather than quantity of your “publications”… F.I. |
The retroactive blaming of all aviation authorities, VAACs and its associated scientific advisors and risk management teams in order to follow the media mainstream is therefore a direct result of this lack of core knowledge. you obviously are by your profile, so please enlighten us to how a zero tolerance of ash which has been in place for years can suddenly be thrown on the ash heap within days and replaced with new levels of acceptable ash. Maybe the culmination of all this research happened to coincide with this vulcanic eruption in timely fashion??? But then I am sure you will know? As to your arrogance maybe pprune should have a requirement of holding a PH.D degree to post here? I am not alone in my "views" and it will be intersting to see whether the airlines are happy to accept their losses or challenge the whole handling of the crisis to retrieve those losses through the courts as they claim they will! They must feel they have an arguement over how matters were handled? It is not the individual skills or dedication of the cooks in question but probably too many of them spoiling the broth. Pace |
All the ash in animation
This cumulative animation shows the ash cloud from April 15 up through this coming Monday or so. One can see that the cloud began to disperse at about the same time that the powers that be switched from meteorological criteria to financial criteria to set ash limits. One can also see that another big blob of ash is expected to sweep over the U.K. in the coming 48 hours or so. Strangely, I haven't read anything about it in the news.
http://api.met.no/weatherapi/volcani...type=image/gif |
Appreciate the link, AGA, but mine seems to 'hang' on 20 April at the moment. Certainly the route KEF-LGW looks like a challenge up to then:)
It is of note that in ground terms the deposits of ash particles in the south of England (Aviate 1138's 'pollen') did not amount to any more than a good dose of summer Saharan sand, if that enables a sensible comparison of risk? |
please enlighten us to how a zero tolerance of ash which has been in place for years can suddenly be thrown on the ash heap within days and replaced with new levels of acceptable ash. In order to continue you need to define how you intrepreted zero tolerance. From a safety of flight standpoint take a look at the FAA release posted here a couple of days back. Here's a typical question from an operator to an OEM 1) Is it OK to fly into volcanic ash ? ...... ans: No 2) What do I do if I accidently fly into ash ? ans: inspect your aircraft and engine systems and clean and replace as necessary 3) Why is it not OK to fly into ash? Ans: because it may damage your engines or aircraft by plating out in the hot section of engines, blocking small holes with ash or eroding aircraft windscreens, and/or blades in an engine. 4) Is it unsafe to fly into ash? ans: it might be if etc. etc. 5) How do I know if I have flown into ash? ans: any of the following symptoms may occur etc. etc. 6) How much ash does it take to bring down an aircraft? ans: Don't know, it has never happened when the following steps have been taken. etc. etc. 7) How do I avoid flying into volcanic ash? ans: ask a meteoroligist No where in the above is there a statement of zero tolerance and aviation has not operated in a zero tolerance regime but rather chosen the route of avoid with caution and accomodate if an inadvertent encounter occurs. |
Hello, I normally just read this forum (had to actually join to make this post)- they are often entertaining and sometimes enlightening, so thanks to all the contributors. My apologies if I don't do this quote thing in quite the correct manner.
With reference to BOAC's post "Iceland’s Katla Volcano New Seismic Activity 4/28/10: Eruption Imminent Today, Iceland’s Katla volcano had a significant earthquake. Although no eruption has happened yet, this would be the normal course of events prior to an eruption. No official news story available at this time, but the seismograph data is available for public viewing here: Icelandic Meteorological Office - Volcanic Eruption - Seismicity - Weather forecasts - Weather observations - Avalanches - Hydrology - Climatology - Sea Ice Please can we have some opinions? |
lomapaseo
Your last post really 'hit the nail on the head' with respect to the difficulty operators faced during the inital few days of the ash cloud reaching the UK and Europe. Given that the industry had no quantitive measure as to safe levels of ash, as we now seem to have established, albeit in extremis- all our previous instructions and procedures instructed us to avoid ash- period. Is it a surprise to anyone that we stopped flying in the face of this ash cloud?- such as it was. What operator would have/could have ignored VAAC advisories, Ops Manuals and OEM instructions, even if NATS would have issued clearances? None is my guess. And if and when Katla goes, if the UK is affected, I predict we'll have a similar difficulty in deciding if its 'safe' to operate. Unless the plume is very well definded, which it wasn't last time, quite how we'll flight plan around ash in a dymanic atmosphere is going to be another major issue. |
over reaction?
Was in work today and read a lot of e-mails from Executive Officers of airlines in the UK praising the way NATS dealt with things. This includes one from BA... It also includes one from Lord Adonis.
Not only that, but they all stated they were very impressed with the communication, hospitality and work that NATS provided during the period. Yes, there may well have been an over reaction but the airlines, in private at least, are singing the praises of the efforts made. Maybe they want to put a different spin on it to appease their customers, but it does not marry with what they have written. The fact of the matter is this is the first time this has happened over such a densely flown area. There are bound to be lessons learned, hopefully they will be. |
Dangerous Ash?
To previous posters some answers:
We have wx radar to Detect and AVOID CBS When significant bird concentrations are known about we DONT TAKE OFF Flying is all about risk management. The whole point of my post is that overnight someone has dreamt up a supposed safe level of volcanic ash concentration. Where is the evidence to back that up and how do we as pilots determine the level that we are flying through is at or below that level. Oh yeah and the only remedy we have in flight is a 180 turn THAT IS BASED ON A FLIGHT PLAN THAT AVOIDS ASH So having not been flight planned through and not encountering ash at any level of concentration up to that point a 180 turn is a sensible action to remove the risk. Being flight planned THROUGH ash areas that maneuver may very well be useless |
re: kala87
The advice would have been quite clear AVOID FLYING THROUGH KNOWN AREAS OF VOLCANIC ASH
We pilots deal with this situation ALL THE TIME the only difference here was there wasn't any clearly defined area to fly around |
how much more different is it from flying in dense dust as is frequently done in the middle east.
|
Volcanic ash is much more corrosive than sand, and the particular type of ash from this eruption contained higher levels of glass particulates than the ash from either Pinatubo or Mt St Helens.
|
I personally thought Five days from Whoa to Go again is very quick, considering the scientific, technical, operational, not to mention regulatory, insurance and legal issues that had to be addressed.
Well done. Furthermore, we now have a precedent in place that will prevent the whining and bitching from uninformed idiots in the event that Ash becomes a problem again. |
how much more different is it from flying in dense dust as is frequently done in the middle east. Hope we are now ready for Katla if it blows. |
I was on a Swiss A340 flight on April 30/May 1st and they kept the landing lights on for the entire flight. Is this standard practice to see the ash clouds?
We also hit some 'clouds' southwest of Iceland which looked different and the aircraft flew higher to escape which was an unusual reaction to cloud. |
BOAC
Does this help ? Volcanic Ash Animation :: ASHTAM The Aviation, Volcanic Information Site An animation from the beginning of all the Norwegian Met Office Images. Gary |
Yes - I was looking at the pressure pattern forecast for this week earlier, and that confirms my concerns.
|
Well, Jan, re my post #2494 - it might be that we do not even need Katla to find out where our ducks are sitting.
|
The Volcano That Stopped Britain - Channel 4
.... ..... Looks interesting, UK C4 TV, Sunday 02May, starts about 21.00/21.10 Z |
here it comes again....will it stop the UK again this time??????
http://metoffice.com/aviation/vaac/d...1272863146.png |
Interesting article on the BBC
Volcano ash flight ban 'might have ended sooner'
Flights resumed when manufacturers gave assurances six days after the eruption, which disrupted the plans of hundreds of thousands of people last month. If airline engine manufacturers had specified a safe level of ash earlier, the Civil Aviation Authority says it could have reopened the skies earlier. All aircraft engine makers contacted by the BBC declined to comment. CAA chief executive Andrew Haines told Radio 4's The Report: "The critical path for this decision was the time it took for the manufacturers to satisfy themselves on the safe level of contamination. "How long does it take for a manufacturer who has declined to determine something for many years to actually say, 'Given the evidence we've now got, we're happy to nail our colours to the mast and say that these are safe levels of contamination that don't present a hazard.'" He said: "I suspect that manufacturers knew much of this, that they knew there was an acceptable level of safety but what hadn't happened is that they were prepared to underwrite that and validate it." Mr Haines continued: "I suspect that a lot of these things come down to a combination of commercial and safety pressures and actually there are levels of contamination which might impact on the life of the engine without impacting on its safety. "But that's only a speculation on my part.... I'm just grateful that they came to the table and worked very hard to get it resolved." "If we'd had the assurances from manufacturers that we have now at the start of this crisis, the response would have been different." Ongoing discussions about the safe level of volcanic ash to fly in had already been taking place between air regulators and the air industry, according to Richard Deakin, chief executive of the National Air Traffic Control Services (NATS). "There had been a meeting of the volcanic ash advisory group with aero engine manufacturers in March of this year, so literally a few weeks before events unfolded," he said. The question of what might be a safe level has been widely discussed across the industry for many years. In 1982 a BA jumbo jet flew right into a plume of ash from an Indonesian volcano and all four engines stalled, although they were eventually restarted. The normal procedure when planes encounter ash is to fly round it, meaning that manufacturers have not had to specify "safe" levels. But the size and location of the ash cloud produced by Eyjafjallajokull, meant it was impossible to fly round it. BD |
Watching BBC weather this morning it struck me that another high pressure system was on its way. 0000UTC Wed 5 May Px Chart shows a pretty clear flow toward uk/europe:
Met Office: Surface pressure forecast A second wave? Who knows... no really, who actually knows? |
Not good. Lots more activity around Eyjafjallajökull as well. The red markers show activity in the last 24 hours.
See: Earthquakes - Mýrdalsjökull |
Its Back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
|
Here's the official Icelandic government report. Emphasis in bold is mine, not theirs
Eruption in Eyjafjallajökull Status Report: 21:00 GMT, 02 May 2010 Icelandic Meteorological Office and Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland Compiled by: MJR / MTG / FS / BO / SSJ / SH Based on: IMO seismic monitoring; IES-IMO GPS monitoring; IMO hydrological data; web cameras of the eruption site from Vodafone, Mila, and Múlakot; IMO weather radar measurements; information from scientists at Gígjökull. [No scientific overflight today.] Eruption plume: Height (a.s.l.): Estimated from web-camera views and observers on the ground at an elevation of 4–5.4 km (13–18,000 ft). Clouds of ash at lower elevations observed drifting south-east of the eruption site. No verifiable detections from the weather radar at Keflavík Airport. Heading: South-east from the eruption site. Plume track visible at least 200 km from the eruption site on MODIS (12:35 GMT) and EUMETSAT (17:15 GMT) satellite imagery. Colour: Dark grey (ash) clouds observed over the eruptive site. White (steam) plumes rising from Gígjökull, north of the eruption site. Tephra fallout: Moderate ash-fall reported in the village of Vík (12:00 GMT), located 40 km south-east of Eyjafjallajökull. Lightning: No detections today over the eruption site (18:00 GMT). Noises: Booming sounds heard during the night and throughout the day up to 40 km south-east of the eruption site. Additional note: Plumes of white steam extend partway down Gígjökull. Lava appears to have advanced further down Gígjökull overnight. Aerial observations at 18:25 GMT confirmed a dense cloud of ash between 3–3.3 km a.s.l. (10,000–11,000 ft) at 60° N, 16° W (~470 km south-east of Iceland). London VAAC have been informed about this sighting. Meltwater: Before 16:00 GMT, discharge levels at the old Markarfljóts bridge, ~18 km downstream from Gígjökull, were noticeably lower than yesterday's levels. Between 16:00–17:00 GMT, a meltwater pulse was detected at the bridge; the flood was comparable in size to earlier floods on 30 April. At 19:40 GMT, web-camera images of Gígjökull showed plumes of steam rising from the glacier edge. Additionally, steam is rising from the delta that occupies the lake basin, suggesting the discharge of near-boiling meltwater. Conditions at eruption site: Explosive activity has increased somewhat over the last 2–3 days; mass flux in the plume is estimated at 10–20 tonnes s–1. A scoria cone continues to form at the eruption site. Lava is propagating down Gígjökull and most of its energy is being used to melt ice. As lava advances down-glacier, the size of the ice canyon increases. Large plumes of steam are produced where lava is in contact with ice and meltwater. Seismic tremor: During the last 30 hours, tremor levels have intensified. This intensification could be due to lava-ice interactions within Gígjökull, or conditions at the eruption site. Earthquakes: No locatable seismicity detected beneath Eyjafjallajökull. GPS deformation: Horizontal displacement towards the centre of the volcano, in addition to vertical subsidence. In the last couple of days increased subsidence has been observed at stations closest to the eruptive crater. These observations are consistent with deflation of a magma reservoir beneath Eyjafjallajökull, although the deformation pattern has changed somewhat. Magma flow: See overall assessment. Other remarks: No measurable geophysical changes within the Katla volcano. Overall assessment: The eruption is mixed, with the lava-producing phase being larger than the explosive phase. During the last 2–3 days, the plume has been darker and wider than in the preceding week. Tephra fall-out in the vicinity of Eyjafjallajökull has increased. From the location of the steam plume over Gígjökull, lava has advanced over 3 km north of the eruption. Steam plumes over the glacier edge from 19:40 GMT suggest that lava may have advanced even further. A rough order-of-magnitude estimate of lava volume can be obtained from the dimensions of the ice canyon. This estimate gives a lava production rate of-the-order 20 m3 s–1 (i.e. 50 tonnes s–1). The explosive phase may be 10–20 tonnes s–1. The explosive phase has increased somewhat in intensity during the last few days. Presently, there are no measurable indications that the eruption is about to end. |
I'm glad I don't have to make the decision either way.
Rgds Dr I |
Over the midlands by tomorrow evening I would think.
|
You mean..............................the ash might have suddenly become dangerous again?:ugh:
|
For goodness sake. I can't summon more disgust than that. I wonder what the politicos and the money men will decide this time.
|
sky news now running the story:
"The latest information we have is that some of the denser volcanic ash, that's the no-fly zone, is over the Donegal area," IAA's chief executive Eamon Brennan told RTE radio. "We are concerned about the north-easterly winds moving this down over the rest of the country." He went on: "At the moment we have a slither of denser ash over the midlands and if this continues for the next number of hours we have no option, based on the new regime imposed in Europe last week, except to impose a no-fly zone and a 60-mile buffer zone which would effectively close Shannon and Dublin airports." |
Irish airspace closed from 7am
rte.ie/news reporting that Irish airspace will close from 7am.
RTÉ News: Irish airspace to close from 7am |
Radio programme on the Ash debacle:
BBC - BBC Radio 4 Programmes - The Report |
Forget the current insignificant volcano........
Katla is probably imminent, and the ensuing ecological disaster :\ Katla | Ríkisútvarpið vefur |
Ash Cloud Returns-Ireland Closed.
|
So will the UK government politicians dare to run round like headless chickens again in election week ?
|
|
Ive just looked on Caspar and it is showing flights still in and out of Dublin.
Is it accurate and is Irish airspace still open? |
..erm - 7 posts above? Wake up at the back.
|
Quote from the Icelandic Met Office site. Sounds as if they're getting fed up of groundless conjecture:
Katla is NOT erupting and there are NO indications that Katla is about to erupt. Information on this page is for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption. |
Katla
Not totally conjecture;
Re post 2505/Calvin Hobbes 28APR Page 2 of "Status Report" Katla rumbled at 03.36 28APR 6km down Just checked the site and apparently nothing since Rod. |
| All times are GMT. The time now is 04:14. |
Copyright © 2026 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.