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Skyhook One
The planning around chemical / fallout scenarios was easier.
As the delivery munitions were targeted at ground forces or centres of population / transport hubs. So the affected area was generally at lower levels to ground level. So the prevailing winds were easier to estimate. As well as lower level turbulent mixing would keep the affected area more localised. With this bad boy, there will be some lower level fall out, but the fact that the dust is starting from higher levels, would suggest that it is going to cover a large area very quickly, before the grains start to make their way down. Just my thought why modelling the scenario is so much more difficult. |
Right then, suppose this volcano erupts for another month which is entirely possible and we continue to get ash blown our way. I bet attitudes towards safety will start changing over night!
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Departure ex GLA
An Air Transit flight is currently showing on Radarvirtuel having just departed GLA for YYZ.
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As pointed out allready, the jobsworths will have to wind their necks in if this continues for several days,the Eric Moody scenario has nothing to do with what is happening over Europe now.Government research a/c need to be in the skies NOW, sampling the air to give the boffins some hard data to work on.(is 'Humphrey' the RAES Herc that does atmospheric research still flying? Probably been a victim of Gordo cuts,we can allways ask NASA or NOS)
The cash burn rate of grounded airlines is truely awesome,they cannot stay grounded and survive,not to mention other busineses such as tourism etc,jobsworths will simply not be allowed to stay in pious 'better safe than sorry' arse-covering mode.Europe's economy and millions of jobs are at stake.Come on Numptys,pull your collective fingers out NOW. |
Timothy Claypole,
perhaps you should read Royalist's posts: "Just in case anyone thinks that this is too much being careful - I was on the BA flight that lost all four engines simultaneously in '82 due to volcanic dust ingestion. Trust me - you can't... " I think I would still remember at what time of day the event happened had I actually been there.... |
NATS Update:
The cloud of volcanic ash continues to cover much of the UK and the eruption in Iceland continues. Following a review of the latest Met Office information, NATS advises that restrictions preventing flights in English controlled airspace will remain in place until 0100 (UK time) tomorrow, Saturday 17 April, at the earliest. |
is 'Humphrey' the RAES Herc that does atmospheric research still flying? |
according to the metoffice, all UK airspace will continue to be shut until 0100z 17/04 at the earliest.
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<<the Eric Moody scenario has nothing to do with what is happening over Europe now>>
Why is that, please> |
The Hercules was replaced by a BAe146 in 2004 and is operated by Directflight on behalf of FAAM. There is a statement on their website.
Welcome to FAAM |
Over-reaction
Airclues:
I have just walked back from t'pub under a clear, starlit sky. There is no way that an aircraft would encounter volcanic ash tonight (25 miles from LHR). This is a massive over-reaction. On 24/2/89 I operated LHR-ANC. There was a large plume to the north of the airfield (Mt Redoubt), so we flew past the airfield and approached from the south (KLM had previously decided to fly through the plume). Tocamak: I never cease to be amazed by comments from people who probably have no real knowledge about the issue, base their assertions on unrelated experience and have no responsibility at all so can easily spout a load of rubbish. I am sure that NATS, and their equivalents in the countries affected, are not taking this action just for the fun of it or indeed lightly. They would no doubt be interested in your input to help with the formulation of an overall plan! It seems to me that this whole apparent over-reaction may be driven by the box-ticking approach to risk management which has infected public life. The unnecessary financial damage inflicted on a badly struggling industry will force a subsequent reassessment of the action plan. Stand by for plenty of spin. |
Many media reports report airspace closed to all non-emergency traffic but I've seen no definition of this. Is there one ? Some sound obvious but is there a proper definition (especially as many "emergency" services are down already such as some air ambulances. So does it just leave SAR, defence and overflights calling Mayday? Or can it be bent so "VIPs" can fly to Poland for a funeral, or suchlike (just as the saudis reportedly got permission to fly out of the USA despite a national lockdown after 9/11).
It is quite quiet here in Finland as well. Rgds |
The one aircraft that could do useful research into the situation and it's grounded for a repaint. :ugh: ( OK not their fault I know as they couldn't have foreseen the situation, but how ironic.)
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BBC just reported that all airspace closed till 1 tomorrow. flybe managed to get the belfast glasgow flight off. Presumably it was flying with the cabin crews tights fitted over the intakes and at a height of 3ft and six inches.
About 12 years ago was was loafing around an RAF maintanance base talking to the egineers. He handed me some turbine blades to keep as a momento. they came off Tornados from the first Gulf War. Flying low level over the desert the engines had ingested sand. From what I gathered the sand had melted in the high temperatures and turned into glass, which finly covered the blades and ruined them. no idea what the effects off ash ingestion are, but my girlfriend uses a pummice on the dry skin on her feet. I think its made from volcanos(althought its also organic and smells of apricots), so if it works on her feet, it must not agree with aircraft(hope she doesn't read this). I'm on days off today, back to work on Sunday afternoon. Although thats looking increasingly unlikly. How long can airlines last with a grounded fleet? Poor W. Walsh must be pulling his hair out with the increased disruption. do any airlines sell Volvic water onboard.......its got volcanic goodness in it apparently. So long as you don't mind an abraded tongue!!! |
To all those that think this is an over reaction:
When you find out just how much ash can be ingested safely into a jet engine, say in ppm, and then find out what concentration of ash is in the atmosphere above us. Then you can come back here with the figures and tell us all it was an over reaction. But wait, engine manufacturers don't run tests like that on their engines so we have no idea how much is safe. Maybe we should pack a plane full of you send it up and let you lot be the first to find out. |
Tocamak, you should be aware that Airclues is exactly the sort of person who has related experience and responsibility! |
Just wait until the whole ash thing is over and most people have actually found out that you don't need to go aborad for 90 percent of the business they do, but rather do it via video conference :E
That'll hit the industry... |
Post 354 above sums up the situation neatly (if inadvertently!).
We appear to be in a Rumsfeld 'Unknown unknowns' situation and all the box-tickers who have no technical understanding of turbine physics/chemistry and no advice to work on do their customary knee-jerk and tick the box marked 'Airspace Closed'. BUT.... - WHO is doing the physics / chemistry on particles in turbines? Or when are they planning to start? - WHAT is the ACTUAL range of particle sizes, density per cubic metre, descent rate to ground, ...? (there seem to be a lot of unknowns in this category!) - IS THERE a reliable method (apparently not current airborne radar) for detecting and assessing a 'dust cloud' that you're about to fly into? - WHY is there little or no concern about OTHER 'dust clouds' that happen all the time: desert sandstorms, obviously, but there MUST be lots of very local clouds from industry, civil engineering, ..., that SHOULD affect LOW flying aircraft, especially helicopters. Don't remember ever seeing any reports of such damage.... Being in mind the report that last time this particular volcano had a serious eruption, it lasted 3 years, some detailed answers are quite important. |
I fully agree with you. Some of these people needs to learn the proper facts. Just because you can't see it, doesn't mean its not a problem! |
At first sight it looks like today, Fri 16, there is no air traffic in Eire, UK, Scandinavia, Finland, Latvia Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Germany, Benelux, Holland, France, Spain and Portugal.
Clearly all these countries have overreacted and lack the judgement of most posters here. Clearly there are many questions to be answered - amongst which might be what are the relative values of pollution between air traffic and volcano ash. hmmm |
Apologies is this has been asked before but with 20 pages of posts I can't see it.
If the ash is around 18,000' (as reported on Breakfast TV) why not let aircraft operate at say 5000' until clear? Is it a case of not being sure of the level or operational issues or £? |
Didn't a plane go up yesterday for sample testing? Anyone heard any results from it?...
As has been said, why can't pilots depart VFR to 5,000ft until clear then open up a IFR plan? |
Lots of varied opinions on here none from me though cos i am not i a position to know. I fancy shuttting down is the right decision because the French have done it as well, they always like to be different when they can get away with it.
Our roof skylight is covered with a film of orange dust this morning it wasn't there yesterday and it hasn't rained so maybe it is from Iceland!! |
Most if not all airlines do not permit VFR flight. Terrain, economic and many other issues.
Also jet engines operating at that level burn huge amounts of fuel. Plus I guess they are worried about descending ash which is why VFR (flying club) traffic is now affected. |
I know re-posting this is pointless
Obviously if you are going to be the 100th person posting the same comment "I think this is an over reaction", you arn't actually going to read anything but the last post on the thread...
barbiesboyfriend: I think this is all a bit overdone. We know that the ash that BA009 encountered was too much. Is that all we know? How much, for example, is of no significance? (in ppm) How much is the level over, say, London today? in ppm or some other unit. First stage turbine blades in jet engines are operating in a gas stream well above their melting point. They are cooled by an internal flow of cooling air that exhausts through hundreds of very tiny holes, providing what is called "film cooling". Volcanic ash in the cooling air melts and clogs these holes. The result is blades overheating and failing. Failure = no thrust. As far as I know, the only data on "How much" ash will cause this condition is supplied by Two or Three accidental flights through ash. I don't believe anyone wants to risk aircraft or passengers in test flights to prove some theory about acceptable levels of airborne ash, or others about ash concentrations or flow patterns. As far as we currently know, the acceptable level is zero ash. The blades look something like this, and they are very, very expensive. |
John47 At first sight it looks like today, Fri 16, there is no air traffic in Eire, UK, Scandinavia, Finland, Latvia Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Germany, Benelux, Holland, France, Spain and Portugal. Clearly all these countries have overreacted and lack the judgement of most posters here. I'm not a specialist too. However I know there are many active volcanos on our planet, but I haven't heard any recently about airspase closures apart from narrow no-fly zones where you can obviously see the dust visually. |
@ Binks,
Thanks, didn't know they were not alowed to fly VFR (Im a chopper jock). If they were though, I'm sure the extra fuel burn would be alot less impacting finacially than having them on the floor all together. Don't know just a thought.... |
Notivce the ash maps say no significant ash risk above FL 350 - so are NATS allowing overflights above that level and, if not, why not? Ok I suppose emergency descent is a possibility?
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It would be interesting to know whether or not the University of East Anglia has been involved in the decision making.:)
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ITV reported about half an hour ago "live" from LHR that an a/c had just departed for Canada - long trip VFR!
I'm off to fly some circuits. |
Finnish Air Force did "sample gathering flights" with a BAE Hawk on request by traffic safety bureau. Pilot didn't need to eject but evidently findings were worrying enough that the authorities chose to close entire aerospace soon after. Earlier the day some Air Force Hornets had accumulated dust in engine intakes. Volcanic ash was also found on Vinka L-70 basic trainers (piston powered). If the ash can be found on a basic trainer, I can imagine any GA flying at lower levels is in risk.
Ref. Article in finnish (google translate isn't entirely incorrect): Ilmavoimien koneet hakivat nytteit - HS.fi - Kotimaa |
If you look at the latest predictions from the met office http://metoffice.com/aviation/vaac/d...1271398735.png
You can see that the cloud is starting to move up it's own backside. This will continue until we start getting some SW airflow which, if you look at this chart. Mean sea level pressure, wind speed at 850 hPa and geopotential 500 hPa, temperature at 850 hPa is unlikely to occur until next weekend. We have the real possibility of a massive cloud of ash sitting right over the UK and extending well beyond 10 west. |
We have the real possibility of a massive cloud of ash sitting right over the UK and extending well beyond 10 west. |
Skeptics, consult post no. 308 by Lobo Tx
Lobo is a geologist. He explains how different volcanos make different particle contributions to various flight levels. So dodging Mt. St. Helens back in the l980s is far far different from ingesting abrasion downstream from Iceland.
Can't argue with a volcano. As it seems possible air travel may have to downsize, suggest, LoboTX, that you book your family holiday this summer to the UK via Cunard...... Meanwhile, those addicted to flying might enjoy visiting a local gliding club (consult British Gliding Association website); happy to get you airborne via winch launch, no flameouts guaranteed. I still recall with pleasure sharing the airways with the jet traffic over Aboyne at 20,000' - in a glider. And enjoying a cross country flight in the UK of more than 500k. You really don't need any engine at all, chaps. Now if we could only figure out a way to cut the noise and pollution from road traffic as well...... |
Remember that even if the ash concentration is not high enough to cause an engine to stop running, it can still cause significant damage. And what good is it to have planes flying now and after 10 or 20 hours flight time in the "thin ash" you find out that your engines are ruined. How long would fleets have to be grounded if suddenly all engines have to be replaced?
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I don't suppose NATS or other ATC organisations are banning the flights lightly. After all, if the aircraft don't fly throught their airspace, they don't get paid either.
The decision not to fly has been made internationally and for the right reasons. Can you imagine the furore if an airliner flew in these conditions and came down over London, Amsterdam or Frankfurt? It is inconvenient for all- crews and passengers alike, but unfortunately, so be it. I am happier being down here wishing I was up there rather than being up there wishing I was down here! The real trial for all the airlines will be next week when it starts to get back to normal- not only are crews in the wrong place, but my company have crews stuck downroute on what is now their days off- they will need extra unscheduled leave to compensate and this will impact on ALL the crews, so I suspect much disruption for the next week or so. And THAT assumes we will get back into the air in the next day or so! |
Thomson inbound to Glasgow??
According to Casper and Glasgow arrivals flight due to land in 20 mins - currently it is north of Belfast
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Irish Aviation Authority is to lift all airspace restrictions at 10am
Irish Aviation Authority is to lift all airspace restrictions at 10am. Up to airlines what operations will resume.
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I flew back and forth from the US to Asia for several years, like many other pilots. Warnings (sigmets) for volcanic ash were and still are commonplace in Alaska and the Kamchatka peninsula in Russia's far east. The US nor the Russians closed their respective airspace. You re-route and carry more fuel.
Of course flying through volcanic ash is not wise, but to do the "blanket approach" and shut down airports and airspace that is not infected by the ash, is incredible. This is going to set the airline recovery back another century. Get ready for thousands more qualified and current pilots to join the ranks of the unemployed if airlines are unable to cope with this economic setback. |
Looking at the maps linked on post 380 you can see that anything from the Irish Sea westwards across Ireland doesn't seem to be in the "Ash" zone so hence the Irish authority's decision.
Although it won't help many yet at least it's good news for some! |
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