Air Traffic Live showing BHL43A approaching East Coast of Scotland as I type.

I thought airspace was closed !!


Ah, prolly Bristows coming in from the rigs to Aberdeen :\

I think Peter we was correct that NATS is simply implementing a pre-determined course of action for such an event, but I doubt they imagined that the closure of controlleed airspace would continue this long or cause such an incredible cost and disruption to the struggling aviation industry. It is fairly obvious that this catastrophe simply cannot be allowed to continue indefinitely. Someone will have to take the bit and make a practical decision. A similar event occured in the nineties when the Vatnajokull volcano erupted in Iceland. Aircraft were simply rerouted around the area with no resulting incidents and this was some ten years after the Eric Moody episode! IMHO in the weeks and months ahead this whole episode will prove to be an understandable overeaction. Yes ash is damaging to A/C and engines but only in v high concentrations such as were experienced by BA009.
NATS have admitted they dont even know what the concentrations are and yet they have made this kneejerk reaction which I cant help feeling is down to an element of paranoia concerning aviation ever since 9/11.
In future I doubt if airspace will be closed in this fashion for similar events. MET will issue the warnings and it will be down to individual airlines to decide how to avoid the danger. After all it is their A/C that are on the line and no airline is going to deliberately risk passengers or A/C in a foolhardy flight which could ruin their reputation and be financially disastrous. But why should they suffer financial ruin through no fault of their own because of an overcautious bureaucratic ban?

@ Jez,

They (CAA) are deffo most happy about it, promise - heard from a few reliable sources - at least some flying is going on which is good news as any more loss of revenues will almost certainly result in more good guys losing jobs - not good for anyone :eek:

looks like Bristow Helicopters

quote AnthonyGA:
"...I don't know if the airlines or other losing parties here are willing to make this sacrifice, but it certainly would be useful if someone did, because this is a perfect opportunity to gather data on the effects of volcanic ash, which would make it far easier to determine what levels of ash (if any) are acceptable for aviation..."

Looks they are already at it - LH´s D-ABTE (b744) just arrived @ FRA after a low level hop from MUC :ok:
It might become a busy afternoon for the mx.

Errrrrr i dont think the Dornier 228 test bed fell out of the sky......... if it did, the Aeronautical Engineer, that claims to have been on board, looked very well for it :ugh::ugh::ugh:

jetsun - others seem to be managing to get out in the lower levels VFR and all with the blessing of the CAA so maybe possible for you ?? just seems odd that some can and some cannot IMHO - sooner revenue flights are up and running again the better.

:ok:

That Ural Airline A321, landed in Vienna, flight moskau-rimini was vfr fl95!!!!!!

VFR!

Well, no doubt it needed the fuel, but I really doubt the visual inspection afterwards is done accurate

'kneejerk' raction
 

@coolguy

The so called 'knee jerk reaction' you allude to is the product of careful analysis of all available data. This is updated every 6 hours, but is being worked on round the clock.

The airlines are being kept in the loop every step of the way and are taking a very active part in the process.

This period of 'knee jerk reaction' has seen SAR helicopters getting airborne in Scotland, flying low level and coming back covered in ash. Do you think it is a reasonable risk for passenger jets to get airborne with that in mind?

I like to think I'm fairly intelligent and can take a balanced view on things - I'm also not averse to taking calculated risks if I know the full picture. However the decision to allow passenger jets to fly in potentially dangerous airspace is well above my pay grade and level of responsibility as it is above, I would suggest, the pay grade or level of responsibility of any of the posters on this thread...

It is right to ask questions and try to push the boundaries of what is or might be feasible, but don't you think it is rather significant that the airline operators are not jumping up and down complaining about the restrictions?

Go to the Met office site that is linked above (post 603) and compare the met graphics that have been released over the past 24 hours. You will see a significant change in the shape of the predicted (note the word) coverage for certain time spans i.e. over 4 graphics the same DTG is covered because of the 6 hourly updates.

Look particularly (in the case of the UK) at the corridor sneaking into the west cost of Scotland. Given the unpredictability of the shape of the coverage, I'd be rather reluctant to make a dash for the west coast of Scotland (in this instance) just because is shows a clear lane in one time period... this does not show what happens the 3 hours either side as the 'lane' opens and closes...

There probably is scope for flying within the forecast area if the particles are below a certain concentration - but until someone comes up with a figure that is deemed acceptable or 'safe' then prudence says stay on the ground.

We all know you can't mitigate against everything, flying always contains a certain amount of 'managed' risk, but at the moment it seems that not enough is known to make that call. As mentioned elsewhere in this thread, what this prolonged episode does possibly do, is provide data that can be used in the future to make similar events less restrictive or more manageable.

It is probably fair to say that this incident is occuring in an area where traffic density is much greater than in other previous incidents and thus the effect is much greater.

Unfortunately it seems that the level of data we currently have (collectively on a global scale) for passenger jet flights in areas of Volcanic Ash is sufficiently lacking, such that the internationally accepted advice is - do not fly in it at all.

just my little contribution, luckily just got in on thursday and not flying till tuesday at the earliest.
most of you are talking about nats, it's decisions and the traffick arriving into the uk. i know you live on an island and that makes for a certain outlook, i guess, but all of the other civil aviation authorities of northern europe have taken the same decision.

and an aircraft arriving from say spain would have to fly through (at least) france, where the airspace is closed, not only contolled airspace, ALL civilian airspace. so no vfr, ifr or other imagination.

let's just weather this out, try and understand thoses who are stuck somewhere.

out for the day now

"airliner through the ashes

News reporting that an Airbus 321 optd by Ural Airlines routed Moscow - Rome diverted into Vienna this morning. ( reasons are not quite clear I'd say, press say they "ran out of fuel" http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/sr...lies/cwm13.gif )

Austrian mx is now giving said aircraft a throughout check."

What news agency released this info?
Are you referring to this flight of A320?

http://img693.imageshack.us/img693/9727/cap1f.jpg
http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/3660/cap2n.jpg

This one was diverted over the Poland and returned back to Russia (I guess)...
Note the FL190.

"and an aircraft arriving from say spain would have to fly through (at least) france, where the airspace is closed, not only contolled airspace, ALL civilian airspace. so no vfr, ifr or other imagination."

This is changing quickly too,though, as Maastricht has opened up Benelux... So as long as you aren't landing in Belgium or the Netherlands, you can fly over it now....

As anotherthing said,
Which seems a very sane comment to an outsider such as me. Some of the posts in this thread show a negativity - cynicism, suspicions of conspiracy theories, predisposition to distrust any official decisions - that seem downright irresponsible to me, and positively barking in some cases.

I am one of the great masses whose arrangements for the next few days have been comprehensively :mad: up.

But I give credit to the people who have had to make tough decisions - and if they erred on the side of caution good for them. As a long-term lurker (ok call it voyeur) on the forum I am more than occasionally worried by an attitude problem in some quarters of the industry ...

No doubt all pilots would claim to be infallible, but that doesn't mean all non-flying employees connected with the airline industry are complete morons, which seems to be the prevailing flight-deck view.

End of rant.

now 0700 tomorrow

Statement on Icelandic volcanic eruption: Saturday April 17, 1445

The volcanic ash cloud from Iceland is moving around and changing shape. Based on the latest information from the Met Office, NATS advises that the restrictions currently in place across UK controlled airspace will remain in place until at least 0700 (UK time) tomorrow, Sunday 18 April.
There may be some airspace available within Scotland, Northern Ireland and England north of Leeds up till 1900 (UK time), which may enable some domestic flights to operate under individual coordination with ATC. We will be coordinating this closely with airlines and airports. We would repeat, it is most unlikely that many flights will operate today and anyone hoping to travel should contact their airline before travelling to the airport. After 1900 (UK time), Met Office forecasts show the ash cloud progressively covering the whole of the UK.
We will continue to monitor Met Office information and review our arrangements in line with that. We will advise further arrangements at approximately 2100 (UK time), today.

Nine LH ferry flights from MUC to FRA this afternoon.

Ash maps
 

The next 24 hours are looking a bit grim with the corridor to Scotland closing and the ash travelling west towards Newfoundland. Could this close Canadian and USA airspace ??

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1271508253.png

Every cloud has a silver lining!
 

Do there recents events mean European airlines have met their EU CO2 emission targets simply by parking up their planes for a few days now?

And Germany takes the lead...

VALIDITY: 2010/04/17 1200 UNTIL 2010/04/19 1000 ESTIMATED
.
IN RESPECT TO THE CURRENT SIGMET FOR GERMAN AIRSPACE, DFS WILL
ISSUE IFR CLEARANCES FOR FLIGHTS AT OR ABOVE FL200.
PILOTS ARE REMINDED THAT IN ACCORDANCE WITH CURRENT SIGMET THE
AIRSPACE BELOW FL200 IS CONSIDERED TO BE CONTAMINATED WITH
VOLCANICASH.
.
IFR FLIGHTS HAVE TO BE CONDUCTED ON PILOTS OWN RISK, SHOULD THE
NECESSITY OCCUR TO DESCEND BELOW FL200 DUE TO ACFT MALFUNCTIONS.
.
DFS GERMANY

It's not a case of any country "taking the lead". The conditions in the skies above any country are different to those in neighbouring countries, and I presume that the specific conditions over Germany now make it possible to lift certain restrictions in that country.

no, it landed in Vienna for refuelling

And what did the boroscope of the engines show?

It's not a case of any country "taking the lead". The conditions in the skies above any country are different to those in neighbouring countries, and I presume that the specific conditions over Germany now make it possible to lift certain restrictions in that country.

Was a figure of speech... Wasn't intending to appear as if it was a true "race".
However, Met predictions show Germany in a slightly MORE affected area than UK at the current time... So, if planes are getting through without incident, one would hope that at some point other countries in same "degree" of affectedness may follow suit. Clearly, safety is primary concern, but perhaps this loosening of restrictions will provide anectodal evidence that other more cautious countries are looking for to justify their own opening of airspace....
And last I checked, the cloud couldn't discern what country it was over... highly doubt it changed density/altitude at the border....
But ya never know...

Irish Airspace remains close to 13.00 Sunday 18th
 

Irish Aviation Authority: Restrictions on Irish airspace extended to 13.00 Sunday. "No commercial traffic including N American flights will operate from any Irish airport during this period." Further update at 11.00 Sun morning.

Excellent Picture
 

Picture of UK one hour ago and it is fairly obvious where the ash is http://lh5.ggpht.com/_m_Sq-5fiago/S8...s800/photo.jpg

Lufthansa seems to be pushing DFS

KGD LED flights in operation...
 

Looks like the Russians are flying between KGD and LED, although not much elsewhere (at least what is visible on flightradar24).

Sky news now reporting UK Airspace closed until 7AM Sunday! If the bigger volcano goes off which could happen within the next 2 years we're going to be stuffed. Titan seem to be using their A109 a lot today!

Bobster
:{

The wind will not always be from the direction it is blowing at the moment. Icelandic volcanoes have erupted in very recent history with no impact on UK or mainland Europe.

The more normal, Polar Maritime airstream, i.e. South Westerlies will help clear things away, though maybe not in the immediate future. Instead of doom and gloom predictions for the next two years, people should remember their basic meterology and the normal air flows...:ugh:

Some people have been taking advantage of the free airspace around airports this morning...

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_m_Sq-5fiago/S8...sentation3.jpg

Not all airports are closed and not all flights are grounded. VFR is allowed , as is IFR flight outside NATS controlled airspace. Not good for pax traffic for sure but plenty flying around. 150 ish movements at Bournemouth yesterday for example

Relentless power

http://i42.tinypic.com/24m5lw9.jpg

http://i40.tinypic.com/u6794.jpg

Eyjafjallajökull frá Valahnúk

Eyjafjallajökull frá Hvolsvelli

http://www.vodafone.is/eldgos/en

What are military transport doing to get in/out of UK airspace:rolleyes:

Actually it is apparently where the concentrations are from that MODIS image. You can only see the areas where concentrations are very high, though. When it was taken just about everything south of the Scottish border had an ash layer overhead.

Same as everyone else, sitting on the ground and waiting.

My guess is Friday before any significant improvement unless the volcano stops erupting.

Two Air Berlin A330s have just been ferried from Munich to Dusseldorf.... VFR @ FL115 :ok:

Heathrow Director,Anthony GA's & others suggestions that a/c fly into the ash cloud over the UK and then inspect for any damage is not insane it is the only way to get empirical evidence of acceptable ash density levels,we need to be proactive if things do not improve,I for one would be perfectly prepared to do this research as would most other pilots (I've asked around).If we just sit on our arses wringing our hands,we can kiss goodbye to our industry.

So, let's be really pessimistic here. Say the situation in the UK lasts for another ten days, how is this going to impact on our own individual airlines? Times are tough enough without this headache for our bean counters. Wondering how long it will be before the wage bill is looked at.....and the subsequent implications of that too? I am enjoying the time off at home with the family but wondering where I put last weeks Flight magazine.....can't imagine I'm on my own with these considerations.

Hello,

To airseb :
1- NATS do not ALL arrive in UK simply because NO NATS arrive in UK but only in portugal

http://www.turbulenceforecast.com/ma...antic_east.gif


2- The fact that all the french airspace and all french airports are closed is completely false ! Some airports are only closed to IFR and commercial traffic (ie. LFBH and so on..) There's about 30 airports closed.

According german press: Lufty's ferry flights MUC-FRA around FL100 after detailled inspection by maintenance: no findings

Thought this might be of interest.

PICTURES: Finnish F-18 engine check reveals effects of volcanic dust-16/04/2010-London-Flightglobal.com