I am hearing all kinds of complaints, very few solutions.
Could we perhaps have a sensible tech-log thread on what can be done now, and what should be done in the future, since it seems that this might be a fairly long-term problem.
I am surprised that the politicos have not jumped in to lead us through this catastrophy since this could hobble the fragile recovery.

latest from CFMU
 

Volcanic eruption of Icelandic volcano: Eyjafjallajokul.

Click here for a map of the forecast ash cloud issued:17-0600 UTC.
Next forecast to be published after 17-1200 UTC

Today (17-April) the ash cloud is extending.

Airspaces zero-rated/closed until:
(Aerodromes geographically located within these airspaces will be unavailable):

EB Belgium 17-1700
ED Germany 17-1200
EE Estonia 18-0000
EF Finland 18-0000
EG UK 18-0000
EH Netherlands 17-1800
EI Ireland 17-1800
EK Danmark 18-0000
EN Norway 17-1200
EP Poland 17-1800
ES Sweden 17-1800
LD Kroatia 18-0000
LFBB France Bordeaux 18-0000
LFEE France Reims 17-1800
LFFF France Paris 17-1800
LFMM France Marseille 17-1800
LFRR France Brest 17-1800
LH Hungary 17-1700
LI Italy 17-1200
LJ Slovenia 18-0000
LK Chech Republic 18-0000
LO Austria 17-1200
LR Roumania 17-2100
LS Swiss 17-1800
LY Serbia 18-0000
LZ Bratislava 18-0000
UK Ukraine 17-1500

Please note, these lists are not exhaustive.


AIRSPACE OPEN
please contact the FMP
concerned for more information

-Italy, Karlsruhe and Maastricht above FL355


The next general teleconference to review the latest VACC ash cloud forecast will be held at 1300 UTC.
(number of available lines = 400)
Telephone number: +32.2.289.5396

No IFR clearances will be issued that penetrate contaminated airspace.
Airborne aircraft planning to enter closed airspace should be prepared to divert to an alternate destination.

MPs?
 

Guys come on, what can an MP realistically do when dealing with a Volcano and the winds?
Don't you see that there is no human solution for now, we just need to be optimistic and wait.
Planes cannot fly in that ash. Full stop.
MPs can step in later on if the industry needs to be helped, drastic measures might be needed, even re-nationalisation of carriers in the worst case scenario.
All economies need aviation to survive and compete.

I agree that this is steadily becoming the biggest danger to aviation in history, 9/11 is peanuts compared to this event.

The most scary aspect is that the volcano is still very active, the area is active, and this event could carry on for many weeks if not months, and even if prevailing winds will change direction soon the problem will move somewhere else. :ugh:

<<does the no fly not restrict piston/light aircraft?>>

The only restriction on aviation is that ATC is not issuing clearances to IFR flights to enter controlled airspace within the contamintaion zone..

Outside controlled airspace aviation is not prohibited, but soooooo many posters on PPruNe don't seem to want to understand that.

Doomed ! we're all Doomed ! !

Joking apart, and it actually isn't a joke, we really SHOULD be panicking Mr Mainwaring.

If, as seems reasonably likely, this bloody thing keeps erupting, and , as seems not improbable, the air flow remains NW for a few days/weeks,more, aviation , as we know it, is pretty much fecked over the N &W of Europe, with the South & E joining in PDQ by the look of things.

This is a much bigger threat than 9/11, cannot be manipulated /spun by the political lot (hence why, along with preening themselves for an election they are keeping pretty quiet) and no-one yet has any solution, or even action that might ameliorate the situation.

I don't actually want to imagine how many companies will be affected, but it can't be long before the perfect storm of no flights flown, and reduced revenue due to lack of bookings by a worried public, combined with fixed overheads such as leasing and wages (we like to hope :hmm:) and the need to make constant refunds for flights not flown (well lets see how long that lasts :rolleyes:) can be sustained by many already financially fragile carriers. How long for example can even the mighty BA survive with the entire fleet idle ? Even MOL didn't look so chipper in an interview he gave on the Beeb, for once he didn't go into raving mode, I think with the greater part of 220 odd airframes idle he has already found the smell of coffee.
If nothing changes by the middle of the week, how many companies will we be discussing as having gone defunct this time next weekend ?

This is serious sh1t folks :uhoh:

Ash !
 

Sky news reporting that a "light dusting" of ash is settling in the Thames Valley area :bored:.

if you really want to go to Europe ...
 

FlightAware > N662CP

last piece of uncontaminated airspace ....

ICAO Experts Complain of Lack of Safe Ash Concentration Level.
 

1.1 Secondly, the past paragraph of the workshop summary suggested that ‘clear limits of ash content are required from both the manufacturers and aviation licensing authorities’. This refers to an indisputably difficult and longstanding problem; that there is no defined lower limit on ash concentration. As remote sensing techniques improve, it is likely that the aggregate areas where ash is sensed or inferred will increase, possibly leading to over-warning for ash and cost-blowouts for airlines. It should be recognized that progress on this issue would considerably aid the future operation of the IAVW, including in relation to the development of future satellite sensors, dispersion modeling, eruption notification procedures, and so on.
1.2 The group may agree that this “safe concentration of ash” problem should properly be advanced in both IAVWOPSG and WMO fora, with scientific studies informing a decision-making process about the standards required from the warning system. As it has proven difficult to get formal aviation representation at science-focused workshops such as Rotorua, the input of the aviation industry to this problem might formally be sought through IAVWOPSG processes. A draft conclusion in this regard is given below.

Helicopter across my skies 30 mins ago. Possibly heading to Cumbernauld, although from distance appeared larger, maybe enroute to PIK or GLA. First I've seen anything in the air for three days:confused:

Well not for those whose livelihoods depend on the aviation business.

On the subject of the timeline for the eruption to continue the expert from the Met Office on the BBC did say whilst the eruption may continue for quite some time the nature of it may change if the water that is causing the explosive nature is all used up. Of course the problem is knowing how much water there is in the first place.

Heathrow Director wrote:

Not only that, but the news people seem to be missing it as well. Since I was able to fly from Dundee to Cumbernauld yesterday, and back to Dundee later on, there seems no reason for telling the world that UK Airspace is closed. I can see how the big airlines might be suffering but the smaller operations ought to be making a bigger effort to publicise their availability in Scotland and the north of England.

There are a few things that may come out of this:

Oil price drop. The demand for aviation fuel will be significantly reduced over these days and the demand in terms of quantity will not "make up" for what has been lost over the past few days.

Travel companies may do better - why? Because traditionally the time after Easter holidays is lower season and many aircraft are flying with low bums in seat ratio. If the holiday companies move those passengers to later in the year, then they get fuller aircraft and don't pay out for the fuel costs for the half empty flights..

Are the airports being proactive at this point and using their downtime sensibly by getting ahaead of any upcoming scheduled repair work to runways, taxi ways etc? Any idea on how they are dealing with bird and wildlife populations who are no doubt using this time to set up home in our airports?

Also, I've noticed that the climatologists are being rather quiet, I'd imagine they are very busy monitoring the affect of such few movements over the UK.

This has been a rather interesting few days!

x

Jersey Airport has been very busy with repairs on the taxiways and rw.

[Reported on Channel TV]

It dont look good as Sky news reporting weather is set to stay the same for 4-5 days.

And the NASA DC8 only flew through ash for a few minutes!

Just a thought, if BA have a Jumbo sitting in GLA will it be in a position to make a dash back across the pond to help with stranded pax should any lifting of restrictions in Scottish Airspace happen :confused:

A lot of capacity just sitting there, could drop off a few BFS/BHD/LDY pax stranded in Scotland on it's way :ok:

Live webcam of the cause......
 

Sorry if this has already been posted, a link to a live webcam overlooking the cause of it all:

Eyjafjallajökull frá Hvolsvelli

Isn't there some other alternatives for the major EU airlines to use their aircraft that is stuck in other countries to fly to other hubs/airports, just to get the pax that seriously needs to get to destinations on to european soil and moving? Ie:
BA should have quite few aircraft stuck elsewhere in the world (I think there is 5 in South Africa alone), can't they sort of fly to MAD at least?
LH to MXP or ZRH
AF/KLM to southern France (Nice, Marseille) (A380 stuck in JNB as well).

Would other carriers with major connecting hubs to Europe allow pax to reroute to southern european destinations...ie: say an EK ticket JNB-DXB-LHR change to JNB-DXB-ROM ...at least with pax from Asia/Oceania/Africa...this could be done by EK, QR, EY, TK, ET, KQ etc.

Would airlines like TP and IB be doing better business at the moment, with pax just trying to get to european soil at least and travel from there onwards by train/bus/taxi/transfer. Would other carriers be allowed to increase flights to these destinations not affected (yet) like MAD, LIS, ROM, NCE?

Did anyone boroscope the Dornier afterwards, to see if the contaminants (at this concentration) did actually stick?


As an aside, a colleague reports that he has been banned from posting on this thread for being negative. The Mod said "pro comments only accepted on this thread". What kind of free-speech discussion is this?

Silverstrata
 

That was my immediate thought when I saw the clip of them wheeling it away afterwards. If that was my aeroplane, I would have the engineers peering into its soul before it had a chance to cool.

The bloke I saw being interviewed said he was an Aeronautical Engineer and from what he had seen; 'he wouldn't want to put my aeroplanes up there at the moment.'

Having said that, he did say the layers weren't all dust. Some of them were the gas products of the eruption and, although unpleasant, would not be as destructive as the pumice dust.

Roger.

All cars covered in fine brown dust this morning. Just north of London so it is unquestionably settling and confirms what the Do228 found yesterday - distinct "muck" in layers upto 10,000'.

Time to start getting very concerned. Prevailing winds are going to keep this coming our way till the middle of next week. The volcano webcams confirm it is still belching out a lot of smoke/soot/ash/debris - just better pray that its big brother "Katja" (?) doesn't blow its top :uhoh:

I suspect a lot of temporary lay-offs in many airlines if this continues for another week and as for the recovery from recession........ double dip anyone?

A4 :(

PICTURES: Finnish F-18 engine check reveals effects of volcanic dust-16/04/2010-London-Flightglobal.com

G

As per the Flight Global article the F18's were not knowingly deliberately flying through the cloud "on a purpose" however...the engine damage photographs are from one of 5 aircraft that were involved in normal air to air combat training exercises that took place BEFORE Finnish airspace had been closed that morning

According to BA, these flights operated last night.

BA174 (JFK) - Arrived in (GLA)

BA176 (JFK) - Arrived in (PIK)

BA184 (EWR) - Arrived in (PIK)

There ain't much politicians can do, other than help pick up the pieces afterwards.
However, if travel "windows" appear, maybe they should be advising EU citizens not to travel by air in the next month other than to return to home base. Thus allowing maximum seats available for people getting home & not increasing the potential number of strandees and also giving people the opportunity to make alternative arrangements.
At the moment some carries are only working a few hours ahead, when clearly the forecasts are not good for some time to come.

Accept it and make the best of it
 

I note many aviation authorities continually announcing closures of airports and airspace "until xxxx GMT today," followed inevitably by new announcements as the opening times must be postponed again and again.

Why not just say "closed until further notice"? Because that's the reality. And it looks stupid for authorities to announce specific times only to revise them again, and again, and again. Why the reluctance to say "we don't know"?

In fact, there seems to be a general reluctance to accept the reality. As long as there's ash in the air, you can't fly. The ash might clear tomorrow, or it might be there a year. There is absolutely nothing that can be done about it, so there's no sense stressing over it.

But there is one way to make the best of it, and I see I'm not the only one thinking about it:

I don't know if the airlines or other losing parties here are willing to make this sacrifice, but it certainly would be useful if someone did, because this is a perfect opportunity to gather data on the effects of volcanic ash, which would make it far easier to determine what levels of ash (if any) are acceptable for aviation. But nobody seems to be doing much of anything. There isn't anything else to do, and there's ash right at the doorstep waiting to be measured, so why not at least try to profit from the situation. If crews are willing to volunteer for the work, at least. And they'd actually be risking airframes, not just engines.

Without some experimental flights by some brave researchers, the threshold of acceptable ash levels will always be zero. It might turn out to be zero even after research is done … or it might not.

Julian... See post #567. Outside controlled airspace you can do as you normally would.

It never will be, there are perpretual volcaninc eruptions on this planet and what is emitted circulates in the moving airmass that surrounds this planet.

Some volcanic debris has been recorded as having circled the globe three times following an eruption. It will never be zero.

Overreaction ?
 

Iceland eruption and the massive disruption to global aviation: Is the shutdown really necessary? | Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation - CAPA

When Eyjafjallajokull went off in 1821 it lasted for a year.

Looking at the met office predictions into this afternoon there is quite a significant shift allowing most of Scotland, Northern Ireland and possibly Manchester to start operating flights either between airports or westbound flights.

I hope for those stranded something comes of it, even if there is a slight chance I'm sure the airlines will jump on it to get things moving.

Met Office: Icelandic volcano eruption

LH is doing some ferry VFR positioning flights MUC-FRA low level.

Apparently LH wants to check the effect the ash has on the aircraft.

Latest news from CFMU:

airliner through the ashes
 

News reporting that an Airbus 321 optd by Ural Airlines routed Moscow - Rome diverted into Vienna this morning. ( reasons are not quite clear I'd say, press say they "ran out of fuel" :suspect: )

Austrian mx is now giving said aircraft a throughout check.

I hope you guys get back in the air soon.

Here's a link to an article from yesterday predicting a change in the jetstream that will allow flights to resume Thursday.
AccuWeather.com - Weather News | Ash Plume Aviation Crisis May Get Relief Thursday

We were in Stockholm Thursday and awoke to the news of this. Our Ops department management decided they didn't need to wake us up. By the time we were airborne at 1312z the airspace just north was closed and the airport closed at 16z. When we called for engine start, they told us we couldn't go even though Brussels had approved the route. Took about 15 minutes of negociations to convince them we could go. We went south to Geneva before turning westbound for the states.

Wish they had woken us up. We were lucky, we should have gotten out earlier.


Best,
Jim

Have reliably heard that one or two business jet operators are managing to get around the problems at the moment by flying VFR outside CAS - all hunky dory with the UK CAA as well - maybe with a little liason with those in the ivory towers at Gatwick, might pave the way for a few more operators to gain some revenue ?

:ok:

@AnthonyGA:

Your suggestion reeks of common sense. Which may well be its downfall. :uhoh:

I think you'll find that the CAA aren't all that happy about these operators flying VFR outside CAS. Several phone calls have been made by the CAA this morning encouraging a cessation of these flights. :(

Regards, jez

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1271508253.png


the latest ash prediction

not looking any beter

OutsideCAS... People in "ivory towers" have no real say in the matter. They are following international guidelines about Controlled Airspace, as are many other countries. What goes on outside CAS in the UK is up to the aircraft operators. However, volcanic ash clouds are not well-known for remaining inside CAS!

As for popping some old engines on an aeroplane and flying into the ash to check the results.... I think that's bordering on insanity. How about if the engines powering the "test-bed" became clogged and it crashed? So you're willing to risk life and limb for this venture?