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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

Old 9th Jan 2020, 12:48
  #201 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by UltraFan
Correct me if I'm wrong but if you "spend" a warhead, can it be lying intact? If you see it, it's not "spent". Source, validity and location of the photo should be verified.
this type of missiles warhead looks exactly like that on infonapalm website pictures of spent Tor warheads taken in Ukraine.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 12:53
  #202 (permalink)  
 
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Just did a small calculation. The plane must have been airborn for about 3 minutes and 30 seconds after last Flightradar contact info. It must have been burning at least for minute before impact. As it took about 30 seconds at least for a person who noticed unusual event, to react, make decision to record, to take out a phone and start to record. After what we have last 30 seconds of flight on video.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 12:56
  #203 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SASless
the Iranians do not want to release the CVR and Data Recorder
They haven't said that at all, all they have said is that wherever the recorders go for analysis, it won't be to the USA.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 13:01
  #204 (permalink)  
 
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Furthermore it is not confirmed where the search head was found and how it got there.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 13:10
  #205 (permalink)  
 
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LE Slats deployed?


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Old 9th Jan 2020, 13:35
  #206 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
They haven't said that at all, all they have said is that wherever the recorders go for analysis, it won't be to the USA.
They have also said some of the recorder memory is damaged.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 13:42
  #207 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by aterpster
They have also said some of the recorder memory is damaged.
I'd have been surprised if the memory module container (the cylindrical box to which the acoustic beacon is attached) was in pristine condition. That doesn't necessarily mean that the data can't be retrieved successfully.

I sincerely hope that they haven't tried to open it, instead of leaving it to the experts.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 13:49
  #208 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
I'd have been surprised if the memory module container (the cylindrical box to which the acoustic beacon is attached) was in pristine condition. That doesn't necessarily mean that the data can't be retrieved successfully.

I sincerely hope that they haven't tried to open it, instead of leaving it to the experts.
The accident reports by the Iran's CAO are all done in a professional way. Therefore I am pretty sure they know how to handle a FDR/CVR.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 13:54
  #209 (permalink)  
 
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EDML,

Pretty quick thinking on someone's part to publish that photo of the Seeker Head.....was it taken into evidence by the Iranian authorities....the Seeker Head and photos....and a Statement by the finder himself?

If not....what investigation was done to confirm/deny the validity of the "claim" made by the poster of the photo?

Either it is genuine or it is not.....which is it and how is the truth of the matter documented?

Can we trust what is being put forward regarding the Seeker Head by the Iranian Government?
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 13:55
  #210 (permalink)  
 
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 13:57
  #211 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by EDML
The accident reports by the Iran's CAO are all done in a professional way. Therefore I am pretty sure they know how to handle a FDR/CVR.
So do I.
I have no doubt to know the truth pretty soon.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 14:19
  #212 (permalink)  
 
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PS752 crash:
Ukrainian experts examining Boeing wreckage in Iran say fire didn't start from engines
16:55, 09 January 2020 World 104 0
The team expects to gain access to air traffic control system radar data.

Members of the Ukrainian state commission investigating the crash of the Ukrainian Boeing 737 near Tehran, who had earlier arrived in Iran and have examined the plane wreckage.

The engine malfunction version cannot be confirmed, a Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov said with reference to his source in the team.

"At present, our group has arrived at the site where the fragments of the aircraft are being transported. It is an open area where everything found in the area is being taken.

"Currently, I am observing both aircraft engines – and I don't see any traces of fire on them. Fragments of the right wing were brought here, too – there are also no traces of fire on them, so the version of engine malfunction, engine explosion, can't be confirmed at the moment. The plane was on fire, but the version of engine malfunction is not being confirmed," the source said.

He has added that Iranian officials provided preliminary information they had gathered. The plane took off at 06:13, but after five minutes into the flight, at an altitude of 2,400 meters, the plane began to descend, caught fire, and then crashed.

"According to Iranian flight control dispatchers, no messages were received from the aircraft crew. The plane allegedly turned back toward the airport, but we don't understand yet whether this U-turn was deliberate or already uncontrolled," he said.

At the same time, the Ukrainians have not seen air traffic control radar data. There is no information on objects that could be flying near the Boeing and collide with it, or if there was a missile launch. This information is yet to be provided to Ukrainians.

According to the source, the Iranians are fully cooperating in the investigation.

"The Iranians don't seem to be going to keep any info from anyone, they are going to provide access to the investigation and decryption of black box flight recorders to all parties, including Americans, aircraft manufacturers, as well as all countries whose citizens died, in accordance with the Chicago Convention... Iranians demonstrate normal dialogue, there are no signals that they intentionally seek to hide any information, so far everything is right and transparent enough," he said. Read alsoIran releases preliminary accident report on PS752 crash

Butusov, in turn, suggests a fire could break in the cabin. "The absence of any communications with the dispatcher and the absence of fire in the engines suggests that the version of a terrorist attack, a collision with a drone, or an anti-aircraft missile explosion is very likely," the journalist alleged.

Last edited by T28B; 9th Jan 2020 at 14:24. Reason: Proper Attribution added
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 14:25
  #213 (permalink)  
 
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Latest from Babak Taghvaee on the missile theory. Like some other folks here, I've operated out of Mehrabad Airport but not out of Khomeini. Is the depicted dogleg to the right normal on departure?

Babak Taghvaee‏ @BabakTaghvaee40m40 minutes ago

More#BREAKING: Eyewitness reports & wreckage of 9M331 missile found near #PS752's crash site prove that the Boeing 737-8KV of #Ukraine Airlines is shot-down by Tor-M1 SAM of #IRGC|ASF located in a ballistic missile research facility of #IRGCASF! They mistook it with a #USAF airplane! https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/st...11318236127232




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Old 9th Jan 2020, 14:32
  #214 (permalink)  
 
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The FDR is obviously central to this investigation, but I'd be really interested to learn if the CVR has anything on it. I realize that communication is the last thing you do, but if the aircraft was in fact, turning / turned back towards the airport, one would think a quick word with the tower would be in order. That there was no (reported) communication is interesting.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 14:40
  #215 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Airbubba
Latest from Babak Taghvaee on the missile theory.
This beggars belief.
If what this gent suggests is true, I would on first instinct attribute this to a collossal mistake/cock up, rather than anything willful or malicious, given that this airline has been operating on that route for some time out of this airport (per the posts much previous to this one). Still skeptical, even though now and again truth is stranger than fiction.

After looking at who the passengers are believed to be (students returning to Canada after a break): what a tragic loss of part of the future generation.
From the news article cited a few posts up ...
"Currently, I am observing both aircraft engines – and I don't see any traces of fire on them. Fragments of the right wing were brought here, too – there are also no traces of fire on them, so the version of engine malfunction, engine explosion, can't be confirmed at the moment. The plane was on fire, but the version of engine malfunction is not being confirmed," the source said.
Engines are not the only place that a fire can start.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 14:41
  #216 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RCyyz
The FDR is obviously central to this investigation, but I'd be really interested to learn if the CVR has anything on it. I realize that communication is the last thing you do, but if the aircraft was in fact, turning / turned back towards the airport, one would think a quick word with the tower would be in order. That there was no (reported) communication is interesting.
Not to forget the flight deck communication...
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 14:47
  #217 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by gearlever
Not to forget the flight deck communication...
Yes. And the mics would pick up sounds from explosions too, be it engine explosions or other external explosions.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:04
  #218 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by andrasz
Have said it before, but with all the noise on the thread it is now deeply burried so let me repeat: in a totalitarian society (and let's not open a debate whether Iran is one) EVERYTHING that appears in formal news outlets is controlled by the authorities. I would find it extremely unlikely that if any Iranian military unit would have committed such a blunder (which by itself is not at all inconceivable), free access would have been given to local press to the wreckage, and photos permitted to be published. Were that the case, by sunrise authorties would have known in full detail what happened, and as a knee jerk reaction would have done everything in their power to supress incriminating information.
I agree with that, but I think that the perceived freedom of access to site, and the newly released intention of conducting a normal investigation does not eliminate the possibility that the Iranian military (or militia) is involved.
Reasoning: this is 2020, a good old times total cover up is just impossible to accomplish credibly. Neither is desirable the insinuation that it is being attempted, Iran is wants to show they play by international law and civilization as much as possible.
The only damage-limiting tactic possible: Act as if nothing is known. If and when the investigation will have enough evidence that was explosion, dispute the missile theory until the end. Support the thesis of an inside bomb, that has worked good in case of Itavia IH870. Only if considered inevitable, and at a later point blame the shoot down on an mistake that was, somehow, never communicated upward. Prosecute some sacrificial ranks and file, or whatever official is needed, have them executed. Compensate the airline and victim's families to the smallest amount possible and just move on. After all, Iran has bigger problems to deal with.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:05
  #219 (permalink)  
 
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[pax] Opinion says not. Given the short duration of the event, whatever initiated it must have been very intense in order to cause so much flame so rapidly: no time for a progressive build up. Inference is that the electrics were lost so no transponder or comms.
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Old 9th Jan 2020, 15:25
  #220 (permalink)  
 
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Damaged Memory?

Originally Posted by aterpster
They have also said some of the recorder memory is damaged.
To be strictly accurate, the statement actually said....

"There is memory in both devices, but physical damage is visible on them."

Which I take it to mean the device themselves, rather than the internal memory. Just my view, but would they really have got round to opening them and checking the contents after such a relatively short time??

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