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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

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Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran

Old 11th Jan 2020, 12:27
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Political View

There is a slightly uncomfortable message in this incident regarding the way in which Politicians operate.
From the data they subsequently presented, the American Goverment (and probably the British and Canadian Governments) knew that the Flight had been attacked by a missile(s) within an hour. Despite this their public attitude was “Terrible event, but let’s see what comes of the investigation”. Only when 3rd party information started becoming public on the Web did they release the information they already had.
Presumably this lack of positive action was designed to ‘calm the waters’ after Iran’s earlier Strike. It does show however the extent to which Politicians tell you only what they want you to hear, even under these types of circumstance.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 12:32
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Originally Posted by andrasz View Post
One lingering question remains, and hopefully the investigaton will shed some light on this. There appears to be a gap between the last transponder position and the postion of the missile strike. This may of course be easily explained by the known granularity of FR24 data, but in theory it COULD indicate a loss of transponder signal, which under the stressed conditions could have triggered the events.
It seems this is not a factor - the Iranians are not even attempting to use it as an excuse. According to the report in The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nintentionally)'The plane was mistaken for a hostile target after it turned towards a sensitive military centre of the Revolutionary Guards, according to the military statement, carried on the official IRNA news agency.

“The military was at its highest level of readiness” amid the heightened tensions with the US, it said, adding: “In such a condition, because of human error and in an unintentional way, the flight was hit.”

The military apologised for the disaster and said it would upgrade its systems to prevent such mistakes in the future. The responsible parties would be referred to a judicial department within the military and held accountable, it said.'

This suggests that both training and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's missile systems/communications were to blame. FR24 tracking (such as it is) shows the flight was on its normal flight path leaving Imam Khomeini International Airport, which either means the Iranians located a "sensitive military centre" near the normal flight path of a major civilian airport, or that that they are being economical with the actualité. You can make your own mind up on that one.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 12:44
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Originally Posted by lapp View Post
Obsviously it didn't, I believe Iran is trying to leverage the fact that "it turned -period-", incidentally toward the base which had been identified very early, and from where with good likeliness the missile was fired.
That just to beef up the excusing factors. Clearly it turned after impact, but the "detail" that it happened as a consequence is left out. Remember their communications are largely destined to be absorbed only domestically.
Then with time this "detail" will lose any importance and become forgotten. Their task ahead is to bring this to closure quickly, so I don't expect they will be to disputing further, now the general attention must be shifted away from this very sad accident.

posted by fox_niners before

Exactly, it turned AFTER impact. Let us assume that it was hit by one or more SAM missile, or equivalent projectile, depending on point of explosion there is a significant chance that at least part of a wing would have been lost - the fire indicates ruptured fuel tanks - with the consequent impact on the ability of the crew to maintain any flight control, even if they had any control left whatsoever depending on whether the cockpit systems were still viable, or still attached to the rest of the fuselage even (consider Lockerbie). So a significant deviation of flight path as the plane descended towards the ultimate crash site is to be expected.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 12:57
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Atakacs, as regards the Itavia case (I was a small kid at that time, it was 1980, middle of the Cold War, in a VERY different world from today, pre-Internet) actually Francesco Cossiga (Italian PM and even president of the Italian Republic) stated very clearly in 2007 that the flight was downed by a French missile, and that France wasn't absolutely willing to cooperate.
As for the rest... I absolutely agree with MFC Fly. The dawn prayer is considered of crucial importance in the day, and throughout the Muslim world you are typically waken up by the adhan (very loud call for prayer on loudspeakers, all over cities/towns, you will be waken up inside your hotel room) at 05:30, or similar... like it's broad daylight. People are going to the mosque, or praying at home, but it's like: "the day has started".
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 13:06
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Originally Posted by SAMXXV View Post
As an ex SAM operator (for 7 years) I found this very well written set of theories interesting & believable..... https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...nnocent-people
Very good knowledgabe link, thanks for sharing. Sounds very plausible.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 13:07
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Originally Posted by SAMXXV View Post
As an ex SAM operator (for 7 years) I found this very well written set of theories interesting & believable..... https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...nnocent-people
That seemed a reasonable article -- Yes people who are all keyed up for incoming enemy air strikes might well make mistakes.
In a similar vein, one article I heard of mentions other Iranian SAM and AA control problems -- shooting at their own forces -- while all keyed up for war, although it seems to be talking more about the 2007-2008 era, just after Israel bombed their nuclear facility:
https://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/w...n-strikes.html
And as has been pointed out 'the best trained & best equipped' may fail too, as in the USS Vincennes.

One still wonders why this particular flight got targeted, when airliners had already been taking off from the airport through the early hours of the morning, and the base has always been close to airline departure routes. That's where the Iranian government start blaming the airliner for 'coming close to' or 'turning towards' the military facilty, even though the flight path seems no different than of all the other airliners. New morning shift at the SAM battery? Some equipment malfunction there? There was also that speculation that the airliner actually had some problem and started turning back (= towards the military facility) before the shooting started, without contacting ATC first, but I guess that is unlikely and probably can be ruled out by better analysis of the tracks & other events.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 13:40
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Still there's a lot of investigating need to be done and precisely explained how this mistake could have happened. Then it's proven it wasn't intentional. Don't give me plane did this or that, turned whatever, when there's absolutely nothing unusual about the flight behavior. Delayed little less than 1 hr that's hardly unusual. Lack of any common sense to double-check it's not a civilian aircraft when you are right next to the airport. And dozen ways to do so, even looking at the sky - they all failed. Why?
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 13:48
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On the location of the TLAR for the launch:

The video has the sound of what appears to be the booster of the 9m331 missile, similar to the sound of the test firing in 2007 by the Iranians. That precludes the launch location being the berm area of the site to the WNW of the aircraft. From the prepared site, the missile noise would have been received after the impact, not before. The site of the launcher at firing has to be proximate to the observer, and to the west of them. That location would pick up the aircraft coming into view on the initial climb out of the airport, and on a track that would be offset from the direct to launcher bearing by a small angle, it would be attention getting if you are anxiously awaiting an inbound wild weasel HARM launch. Early on, the built up area may mask the primary target and even possibly the SSR ID, so could be seen as a pop up, leading to a snap shot (takes out ADSB?), and the follow up which is then captured on video.

launcher location may be a significant factor to the decision to launch by the SAM crew.

FDR
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:05
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Originally Posted by KiloB View Post
There is a slightly uncomfortable message in this incident regarding the way in which Politicians operate.
From the data they subsequently presented, the American Goverment (and probably the British and Canadian Governments) knew that the Flight had been attacked by a missile(s) within an hour. Despite this their public attitude was “Terrible event, but let’s see what comes of the investigation”. Only when 3rd party information started becoming public on the Web did they release the information they already had.
Presumably this lack of positive action was designed to ‘calm the waters’ after Iran’s earlier Strike. It does show however the extent to which Politicians tell you only what they want you to hear, even under these types of circumstance.
Or they simply decided to wait and let the Irani government dig its own hole.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:17
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Originally Posted by ManaAdaSystem View Post
If his pictures show a real stamp from Iran, his comment is spot on. If not, it’s bad taste.
According to the wikipedia page for Iran Air Flight 644, it depicts "a 45 rial postage stamp released by Iran on 11 August 1988 titled Disastrous U.S. missile attack against Iranian air liner."
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:19
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Originally Posted by ManaAdaSystem View Post
If his pictures show a real stamp from Iran, his comment is spot on. If not, it’s bad taste.
The stamp is legit and real, it was issued 11 August 1988 by Iran.

Scroll down and check : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:25
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Originally Posted by foxcharliep2 View Post
The stamp is legit and real, it was issued 11 August 1988 by Iran.

Scroll down and check : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655
Karma at work. We could sure do without it, but it is a severe slap in the Irani government face.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:27
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There was no collateral damage during the Baghdad Airport strike......none.

It was done in a manner so there would be no collateral damage.

If you wish to claim collateral damage for the shoot down of the airliner.....then you would have to point the finger at the Iranians as it was Iranian forces that launched the miissiles, ballistic missiles first then the SAM's.

The US Military did not respond to those attacks and certainly fired no weapons.

So....ya'll that want to talk collateral damage....how do you blame the USA when they fired no weapons inside Iran and no where near Tehran?

Come on guys....get real!
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:31
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One thing that has always bothered me, maybe others could shed some light on it...

We have seen photos of the crash site that show wreckage from the tail, wings, fuselage, engines, undercarriage, etc, etc.
We have seen maps showing where the various parts were found on the ground.
But I have not seen any photos or maps showing anything of the front of the aircraft, i.e. the flight deck, windscreens, etc. Where are they?
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:33
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Originally Posted by MFC_Fly View Post
One thing that has always bothered me, maybe others could shed some light on it...

We have seen photos of the crash site that show wreckage from the tail, wings, fuselage, engines, undercarriage, etc.etc. We have seen maps showing where the various parts were found on the ground. But I have not seen any photos or maps showing anything of the front of the aircraft, i.e. the flight deck, windscreens, etc. Where are they?
I was wondering that but the cockpit windows were shown on BBC News today - the Ukrainian investigators used a photo of it to illustrate where the first missile hit (directly below the cockpit) and how, sadly, this would have killed the pilots instantly leading to no further ATC comms.
It's an un-nerving picture to look at.

Last edited by Auxtank; 11th Jan 2020 at 14:59.
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:35
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Originally Posted by MFC_Fly View Post
One thing that has always bothered me, maybe others could shed some light on it...

We have seen photos of the crash site that show wreckage from the tail, wings, fuselage, engines, undercarriage, etc, etc.
We have seen maps showing where the various parts were found on the ground.
But I have not seen any photos or maps showing anything of the front of the aircraft, i.e. the flight deck, windscreens, etc. Where are they?
I’ve seen a picture of the right side of the cockpit, including the outside handle for opening the cockpit window.

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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:42
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Cockpit picture
https://g1.nh.ee/images/pix/900x1200...e-88623339.jpg
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:45
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Originally Posted by unworry View Post
According to the wikipedia page for Iran Air Flight 644, it's "a 45 rial postage stamp released by Iran on 11 August 1988 titled Disastrous U.S. missile attack against Iranian air liner."
An interesting thread on the use of such stamps in the region. Sadly, nothing on the historic origins of the stamps themselves, just on the collector who left Iran at the overthrow of the Shah.

Back to topic, whatever the cause of the tragic launch(es), Iran have come clean very quickly, particularly given the “fog of war” and the confusion that must have immediately followed this sad event - and commendably so. More than can be said of the Russians over MH17. I think the Iranian Government are dealing with an awful accident. MH17, while possibly through miss-identification as well, was the victim of a much more involved, shadowy plot. So, credit where credit is due – hard as it will be for all those who have lost loved ones/friends, at least it looks like some degree of closure is swiftly becoming available.

RIP to all ….. and may mankind learn … again!
.

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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:50
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http://www.tehrantimes.com/news/4440...nger-plane-had

TEHRAN – Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, said on Saturday that after he became “confident” that the Ukrainian passenger plane had been shot down erroneously by the Iranian air defense system “I wished death”.

The passenger plane, with 179 people aboard, was mistakenly downed on Wednesday morning. It happened a few hours after Iran fired dozens of missiles at the U.S. airbase inside Iraq in retaliation for the assassination of Iranian Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad on January 3.

Hajizadeh said he was in western Iran when the incident happened.

“I will accept all the responsibilities for this incident,” he told a press conference.

He added, “We will obey any decision by officials.”
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Old 11th Jan 2020, 14:51
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Originally Posted by liider View Post
Thank you, the first I have seen
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