Originally Posted by
andrasz
Have said it before, but with all the noise on the thread it is now deeply burried so let me repeat: in a totalitarian society (and let's not open a debate whether Iran is one) EVERYTHING that appears in formal news outlets is controlled by the authorities. I would find it extremely unlikely that if any Iranian military unit would have committed such a blunder (which by itself is not at all inconceivable), free access would have been given to local press to the wreckage, and photos permitted to be published. Were that the case, by sunrise authorties would have known in full detail what happened, and as a knee jerk reaction would have done everything in their power to supress incriminating information.
I agree with that, but I think that the perceived freedom of access to site, and the newly released intention of conducting a normal investigation does not eliminate the possibility that the Iranian military (or militia) is involved.
Reasoning: this is 2020, a good old times total cover up is just impossible to accomplish credibly. Neither is desirable the insinuation that it is being attempted, Iran is wants to show they play by international law and civilization as much as possible.
The only damage-limiting tactic possible: Act as if nothing is known. If and when the investigation will have enough evidence that was explosion, dispute the missile theory until the end. Support the thesis of an inside bomb, that has worked good in case of Itavia IH870. Only if considered inevitable, and at a later point blame the shoot down on an mistake that was, somehow, never communicated upward. Prosecute some sacrificial ranks and file, or whatever official is needed, have them executed. Compensate the airline and victim's families to the smallest amount possible and just move on. After all, Iran has bigger problems to deal with.