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MH17 down near Donetsk

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MH17 down near Donetsk

Old 20th Jul 2014, 06:34
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Once again, as a NTSB trained aircraft accident investigator I am appalled by the treatment of this crash site.
This was not an accident, it was murder
As this is not an accident, but a deliberate shoot down of a civil airliner


Oh righto, as an NTSB trained accident investigator, (if that's actually true) tell me, do you conclude all your cases from stuff you've seen/heard on the TV/Internet and without being anywhere near the accident?

Propoaganda feeds off the weak minded and their ill informed reinforcement
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 06:40
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picture of missile launch?

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2014/...49_634x396.jpg



For what its worth….
If you look closely at the trail near the ground it does a dog leg, is it consistent with a post launch correction?
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 07:00
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Re dogleg in ground to air smoke trail.

Probably more consistent with the normal effect of air currents on the smoke otherwise known as wind movements from the surface to higher altitude.
It seems that the conspiracy theorists are running amuck on this site.
That doesn't apply to your post Mickjoebill.
Given a choice of a conspiracy or a stuff-up the stuff-up is more likely.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 07:39
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Why this aircraft?

Why not the one before, the one after, or all after a particular time?
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 07:40
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@mickjoebill

The weather on the daily mail image is quite different to the weather in the videos of the impact you can watch on youtube e.g:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gdmM6pWoHso

In all the videos there are flat extending cu, reports of cb further south also indicate convective activity that day. The daily mail image shows a sky without any convective clouds.

The vegetation doesn't seem to match either.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 07:49
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Capvermell
Isn't there any chance that ATC Radar will have captured the missile's path from launch to impact with its target. Of course as the Ukrainians have not so far come up with anything then perhaps not. No doubt ATC monitoring facilities in that region are still primitive in the extreme.
I can assure you that in that part of Russia / Ukraine the ATC radar tracking abilities are far from primitive, they may let you think they are.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 08:43
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Let's hope that with all of the debate about whether MH17 and other traffic should even have been on that airway, that ICAO and IATA decide on a consistent plan to avoid hot airspace and airways that are proximate to hot zones. Afghan, Syrian! Libyan and Iraqi airspace should now be considered areas to avoid...even possibly Pakistan for overflight! particularly to their North and Western boundaries...this also puts the Pilots decision to accept the given CFP route into question..handing back authority to the crew again?
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 08:53
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Ukraine responsible for airspace safety: IATA

@Green Guard
Ukraine responsible for airspace safety: IATA
Finally some meaningful discussion and data in the media.





KLM809 flight-paths are especially revealing. Clearly, they attempted (and twice flown) through what was officially closed airspace of the Crimea restriction zone, which was safe (but officially disallowed), and on other occasions flown the northern Donetsk route, which was officially open, but obviously very unsafe due to confirmed SAM activities. Coincidence, or did they try to steer off the Donetsk route but on some occasions were not allowed to.

Therefore, situation was a complete FUBAR. Local ATC should have closed the airspace in situation such as this and ICAO should always be breathing down their necks when something like this goes on. Instead, it appears everyone was playing politics, as usual. Trying to punish Russia by excluding Crimea space to force the routes over Ukraine did not make any sense as the traffic had to enter Russia space anyway. If someone was determined to play such punishments, restricting all Russia east of Ukraine would have made much more sense.

This is why blaming MH staff for this in any way is insane. How could they do things differently? By having their own intelligence crew for each country they are overflowing? Monitoring press reports about who and when captured SAMs?

Yes, it's disgusting that any cretins would be shooting at things in the sky without knowing what they were shooting at. But, ironically, for them to know what they were shooting at, they would have to have full support of Russian radar and C&C facilities - meaning full Russian involvement and not silly proxy games.

But, from the rebel point of view, (being bombed and shelled daily) it is easy to see why they would think that one would have to be completely NUTS to fly over that area.

(p.s. - From the maps, next time I'm flying I would go for BA or AirFrance. They obviously sensed the FUBAR, even though were not legally required to do so, and routed clear of it. )

Last edited by SadPole; 20th Jul 2014 at 09:17. Reason: typos
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 09:07
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It now appears all of the bodies that have been recovered have been taken "somewhere" by pro-Russian forces in the area.

Associated Press journalists saw the pro-Russia rebels putting bagged bodies onto trucks at the crash site Saturday in rebel-held eastern Ukraine and driving them away.
Ukraine: Rebels have taken all plane crash bodies

A later report now says they've been put into refrigeration:

http://news.yahoo.com/rail-workers-b...1--sector.html
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 09:24
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Originally Posted by Capvermell
Isn't there any chance that ATC Radar will have captured the missile's path from launch to impact with its target. Of course as the Ukrainians have not so far come up with anything then perhaps not. No doubt ATC monitoring facilities in that region are still primitive in the extreme..
Actually a primitive ACT system might rather than a modern one that will usually only be working on secondary radar.

There is more chance of Ukrainian military radar seeing the intercept, but whether they recorded the data is something else.

Regarding Russian radar it depends on the distance from the border.

Then considering detection of the SAM radar(s), that is unlikely as a ground-based detection system would need to be within a few miles of the battery. Best bet for detection would be AWACS but the transmission duration would probably be brief.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 09:33
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Ukrainian military forces lost all radars at eastern Ukraine during conflict. some were captured, other destroyed. Uksatse lost one secondary radar.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 09:45
  #532 (permalink)  
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TC but are there radars still under their control nearby?

I think Ole's comment on the missile smoke trail is right, do you concur?
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 09:53
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i also feel sorry for Malaysian Airlines as they have had two major disasters not of their making!
That statement is very much open to debate.

However ......... reading some of the reports about not just the shooting down of the aircraft, which I still believe may have been accidental, I am filled with revulsion at the way the 'authorities', for want of a better word, in Ukraine, have handled this, obstructing salvage efforts, not treating the deceased with even the minimum of respect, allowing looting ......... it is beyond belief. How appalling for those who have lost loved ones to see their bodies being treated in this way.

MH17: Malaysia Airlines crash victims robbed of their dignity by rebels - Telegraph
.... bodies were being left to rot amid the wreckage in temperatures of 85F (29.4C), ........
“It basically looks like the biggest crime scene in the world right now, guarded by a bunch of guys in uniform with heavy firepower who are quite inhospitable.”
Ukrainian officials accused the rebels of destroying evidence of “international crimes” and allowing cash and credit cards to be stolen from the dead.
In September 1978 an Air Rhodesia Viscount was shot down by Zipra terrorists. 18 people survived and half of those were slaughtered on the ground by the terrorists. In February 1979 another RH Viscount was shot down. The BBC 'chose' to omit these two events from its list of civilian shootdowns published a few days ago.

Reverend John Da Costa, Dean of St. Mary and all Saints in Salisbury delivered a sermon at the memorial for the victims of the first massacre. Much of what he said applies to MH017.

I fear that after the rhetoric from Obama and Cameron, a few verbal slaps on the wrist will be delivered to Mr. Putin for covertly supporting the rebels, and this will all die down and be forgotten.

I'm not aware of any statement from Ban Ki Moon of the useless toothless UN taking on this - I may have missed it.

David Cameron said the European Union needed to “reconsider its approach to Russia”, suggesting further sanctions are likely

Amid growing condemnation Mr Hammond told the Telegraph: “It’s a fundamental principle of human decency that the victims and their possessions should be treated with dignity. I have seen reporting in the media which suggests that these norms are not being respected. We have no evidence that this is the case - but if it turns out to be so, those responsible can be sure they will be held to account for their crimes."
A senior British source said: “Putin needs to feel some pain before he will change his behaviour.”

I'm sure Putin is quaking in his boots.

The Silence is Deafening
Much of this applies today as it did 36 years ago.
Nobody who holds sacred the dignity of human life can be anything but sickened at the events attending the crash.........But are we deafened with the voice of protest from nations which call themselves "civilised"? We are not. Like men in the story of the Good Samaritan, they "pass by, on the other side." One listens for loud condemnation.
One listens and the silence is deafening.
One listens for loud condemnation by the President of the United States.
One listens for loud condemnation by the Pope, by the Chief Rabbi, by the Archbishop of Canterbury, by all who love the name of God.
Again the silence is deafening.

First, those who fired the guns. Who were they? Youths and men who, as likely as not. Men who went over to the other side in a few months were so indoctrinated that all they had previously learned was obliterated.

Second, it is common knowledge that in large parts of the world violence is paraded on TV and cinema screens as entertainment. Films about war, murder, violence, rape devil-possession and the like are "good box-office". Peak viewing time is set aside for murderers from Belfast,, Palestine, Europe, Africa and the rest, to speak before an audience of tens of millions. Thugs are given full treatment, as if deserving of respect.
Not so the victims' relations.
Who else is to be blamed?
The United Nations.......... I am sure they both bear blame in this. Each parade a pseudo-morality which, like all half-truths, is more dangerous than the lie direct. From the safety and comfort of New York and Geneva, high moral attitudes can safely be struck. For us in the sweat, the blood, the suffering, it is somewhat different.
. The ghastliness of this ill-fated flight ...... will be burned upon our memories for years to come. For others, far from our borders, it is an intellectual matter, not one which affects them deeply. Here is the tragedy!
The especial danger of Marxism is its teaching that human life is cheap, expendable, of less importance than the well-being of the State. But there are men who call themselves Christians who have the same contempt for other human beings, and who treat them as being expendable.
.
I have nothing but amazement at the silence of so many of the political leaders of the world..
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 10:40
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Hi all.

Apols if this has been posted before, but a Kazakh-Russian acquaintance who I've been talking to about this ghastly tragedy has mentioned that a BUK missile is only accurate up to 6000 m if fired from a single launcher, and that to down a plane at 10000 meters needs a whole network of 3-4 stations working.

Is this true?
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 11:02
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Originally Posted by ilesmark
Hi all.

Apols if this has been posted before, but a Kazakh-Russian acquaintance who I've been talking to about this ghastly tragedy has mentioned that a BUK missile is only accurate up to 6000 m if fired from a single launcher, and that to down a plane at 10000 meters needs a whole network of 3-4 stations working.

Is this true?
No. It is all to do with PK - kill probability. To achieve a 95% probability you may need 2 missiles etc. Firing just one against a manoeuvring target may have only 30% and maybe 50% on a large non-'manoeuvring' one.

It is in the nature of statistics that a single missile may get a hit.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 11:13
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Pontius Indeed. Furthermore, in this circumstance the target was almost definitely not trying to evade the missile nor would it have had defensive aids, all adding to the PK.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 11:13
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I'm assuming that Russia has a case to answer in criminal terms, for the supply of these things in the first instance
Does Russia have a case to answer over the Antonov also shot down preceding MH17.. or the Hind's also shot down?*

Dangerous Escalation in Ukraine: Separatists May Have Captured More than 100 Missiles

The self-defense forces of Donetsk People’s Republic seized control of a Ukrainian anti-air military installation, RIA Novosti reports.
"The forces of Donetsk People’s Republic assumed control of A-1402 military base," the militia's representative said. According to him, it is an anti-aircraft missile forces facility equipped with Buk mobile surface-to-air missile systems.
During the last several days the militia took control of two internal security troops' installations in eastern Ukraine.
This report, from the end of last month, has had little play in the Western media, which has preferred to focus on reports from security sources that the rocket launchers (and tanks and APCs) used by the separatists were supplied by the Putin regime.
Meanwhile MH17 Tragedy is 'An Opportunity' Says Crass Eurocrat

In a display of insensitivity extraordinary even for a Brussels bureaucrat, a European Union official has told journalists that the downing of the Malaysian flight over Eastern Ukraine "provides an opportunity" for the EU to have "direct contact for the first time" with pro-Russian separatists.


The playing of politics over this, from all sides, is objectionable and an offront to the victims. I for one am disgusted over the political leverage MH17 is being used for.



Note: * i have no particular love for Russia, the Ukraine, the EU and am only looking at MH17 as a tradgic incident with cause and circumstance.

Last edited by stuckgear; 20th Jul 2014 at 11:16. Reason: edit to add
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 11:15
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Originally Posted by ilesmark
Hi all.

Apols if this has been posted before, but a Kazakh-Russian acquaintance who I've been talking to about this ghastly tragedy has mentioned that a BUK missile is only accurate up to 6000 m if fired from a single launcher, and that to down a plane at 10000 meters needs a whole network of 3-4 stations working.

Is this true?
I have not seen anything of a kind in any SA-11 spec writeups. A single launcher in autonomous mode has a radar with the range of 65-75 km and there's no plausible reason why it should only be accurate to 6 km.

Also keep in mind that it's designed to handle supersonic fighter jets (moving up to mach 2.5) so a 777 would be a very easy target.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 12:25
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Originally Posted by flash8
We need some objectivity here.

Their is no evidence that either the separatists nor their alleged Russian sponsors are responsible for this, and any reports by OSCE observers need to be taken within the context of their agenda, they are not as many imagine totally unbiased.

I would also take with a pinch of salt the reports of drunk separatists shooting their guns whilst swigging from bottles as they loot passenger belongings. Somebody is pushing their agenda it seems.

We even have the US arguing (quite rightly) for a full independent investigation and then in the next sentence stating that this was the fault (indirectly or directly) of the Russian Federation.

What we don't have is any facts.
This is totally false.

We have some 'facts'

* MH17 was shot down
* Irregulars supported by Russia are preventing civilian access to the crash site and recovery of civilian bodies

They are indisputable 'facts' for you.


Russia / Putin could provide access to that site in minutes. If Russian special forces which are doubtless in large numbers 'close to the scene' were ordered to make that crash site available to recover bodies the irregulars would not dare intervene.

The fact that Russia is not assisting even in just the humanitarian recovery of bodies of civilians means they deserve all the opprobrium people wish to give them.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 12:35
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Interview with Michael Bociurkiw (OSCE) who is/was on the crash site:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESzmymN5JCc#t=69


Graphic summary of the crash site:

Malaysian MH17 Airliner Crash Photos
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