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MH17 down near Donetsk

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MH17 down near Donetsk

Old 20th Jul 2014, 12:45
  #541 (permalink)  
 
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To all those wondering how the Americans claim to know what happened, try reading these Wiki references. Surface radar observations are not required.

MASINT

Space-Based Infrared System

Space Tracking and Surveillance System

Trumpet (satellite)

These systems would tell the US exactly where the missile was launched, track the missile in flight, observe the explosion, analyse the spectral traces of the missile efflux and the warhead detonation, and record the SAM radar emissions. The missile's speed and trajectory and the characteristics of the efflux, warhead and radar can all be used to identify the missile system.

With all this information to hand, you can understand why Obama was in a position to point the finger only hours after the news broke. The accident site will yield more information; explosive residues, missile parts, etc, and those will be the sticks with which the international community beats Russia in due course. The US will almost certainly keep its MASINT secret because:

1) Those who already know what happened (e.g. Putin) will merely have their knowledge of US MASINT capabilities enhanced;
2) Those who disbelieve everything the US says will just say the US is lying;
3) Those who believe the US don't actually need to see the evidence in order to trust what Obama said.

So I think there is little chance we'll ever see any of this highly-classified intelligence. But perhaps the conspiracy theorists might consider that the US case against the separatists is based on evidence more substantial than a few tweets, a Facebook post and a (allegedly) doctored telephone conversation.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 12:46
  #542 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by SLFplatine
Multiple reports indicate that it was known several days prior that the undisciplined irregular separatist/rebel army had acquired control of a SAM system capable of bringing down large aircraft at altitude. Now, if so, and if Kiev was aware (and there are multiple reports indicating they were) why they did not immediately close the airspace over the area within which said undisciplined irregular armed units were operating is a question they need to answer.
Possibly they thought that nobody would be so stupid as to take out a civil airliner at random.

Also as evidenced here by the 'professionals', pilots and civil aviation experts are not exactly knowledgeable about the capabilities of military hardware.

Perhaps the military intel being passed to civil should be 'dumbed down' and instead of "the rebels have several Buk launchers" it should have been "the rebels are operating surface to air missiles which can destroy aircraft up to 72,000 ft". Then the FL320 restriction would have been seen as less than adequate.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 12:52
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If Russian special forces which are doubtless in large numbers 'close to the scene' were ordered to make that crash site available to recover bodies the irregulars would not dare intervene.
That's not exactly true and shows that the West is again looking at the whole thing through the prism of their fantasies about Ukraine, and not realities on the ground.

Kiev government took power through a coup, was opposed by most of the population of the Eastern Ukraine. Almost entire military in Eastern Ukraine rebelled against Kiev, and they have all the equipment that Western Ukraine has. What's more, Kiev had to pretty much build the leadership and new army (national guard) from scratch because most of them were Russians opposing Kiev and part of the problem was that cash-strapped Ukraine was not paying the soldiers for months.

The only reason the rebels were not using SAMs before was because it took Kiev a lot of time to reassemble something resembling an air-force - the rebels had nothing useful to shoot at.

It was totally childish by the West to treat the insurrection in Eastern Ukraine as bunch of drunk losers with peashooters and not trained military force equal to that of Kiev. Their equipment and training is at least at the level of Kiev forces. The fact that Kiev forces were scoring some victories lately (marked with heavily shelled towns) shows that Putin was actually bowing to pressure and stopped supporting the rebels in meaningful fashion. So, ironically, he probably is in this mess because he unplugged the rebels from C&C support.

BUK system is intended as completely mobile platform intended to secure air-space for advancing tanks and rest of such toys. It can operate as part of integrated system, but its chief purpose is being an autonomous weapon protecting advancing columns on the ground. Interestingly, even Russia does not have effective countermeasures/control of BUK because they lost some of their advanced planes in Georgia because of BUKs smuggled from, (where else?) Ukraine.

p.s. In today's speeches, Ukrainian politicians demanded advanced weaponry from the West so they can finally "bring order".
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 13:09
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Sad Pole,
I'm sure there is a lot of insight in what you write. And indeed Putin seemed to be pulling back from supporting the rebels: I wonder if missiles might have been either an intended counterbalance to the overall weakening of support or possibly a more locally instigated attempt to offset that pullback.

I must suggest, though, that the Western picture of primitive ignorant drunken thugs rather than a disciplined military force is maybe less derived from prejudice than from endless video footage of drunk unwashed chaps in balaclavas waving AK47s and apparently under no coherent authority or acting in anything like a civilized manner...
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 14:01
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2 SadPole:

Yes, you are absolutely right, but: not pro-western comments are deleted usually.
I have relatives in Cremea as well as in Donetsk area and know a bot more, then european and american "writers", but.... I have no right to write what I know about this case.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 14:56
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I agree. Let them think they can manipulate the evidence when we already know. It's really ignorant to think this can be completely covered up so my concern is the same.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 15:10
  #547 (permalink)  
 
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Dutch relatives speaking on SKY news just now at Schipol Airport say

''Mr Putin - I want my children home -- I want to arrange their funerals - where are they? - they are rotting in field somewhere''

shameful
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 15:22
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Tsenis,

I agree it is easy to jump to conclusions and it does need verification. If it is indeed Krasnoarmeysk it should be easy for the person on Twitter making the claim to photograph the exact location seen with billboard, road etc.

Other claims have been made about the transporter truck.

Looks like the same transporter truck with Buk on back? Claimed to have been seen in a rebel convoy that entered Snizhne.





Claimed to have been seen in convoy with a separatist truck although there doesn't seem to be any footage of the two together? The milita truck appears to be one of the separatist "Mad Max" type conversions?

Max Max truck conversions at 0:26, 01:00 and in convoy at 02:46

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Old 20th Jul 2014, 15:31
  #549 (permalink)  
 
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If you are looking for an apology 26 years later, as a US citizen, I feel remorse my country made such a horrible mistake taking almost 300 innocent peoples lives and my heart goes out to the families. I wish we would have apologized more than paying $60 million dollars which shows responsibility, but I wish we would have shown more feeling.

I was a widow at 20 with a 3 week old son after a plane crash and while money can never replace the loss of a husband and father, atleast the US government gave $60 million to the families to try to make the lives easier for the loved ones lost. Financial help would have greatly helped me raise a child alone and I would have felt his life had value and frankly, Food, clothing and shelter would have been the apology I needed more than words.

As a pilot, we have much responsibility to stay on course and not stray into hostile territory and to vigilantly monitor 121.5 and other frequencies when near danger (like in the case of Iran Air). Even in non war zones, like flying in the US, if I lose radios and fly into Washington DC and NY and do not follow procedures, there is a possibility, another terrorist act could be suspected and I may be shot down by my own country to prevent thousands from being killed. The job of an airline pilot is no joke and you have to know what you are doing.

Flying through a war zone where planes have been shot down a few days ago is just irresponsible. Our airlines management must be aware of where they send their crew and aircraft and put them in harms way and not wait for the information to come to them. Airlines management must be proactive! In the case of Malaysian, other airlines understood not to fly in this area. There are layers of protection and everyone must do their part responsibly. My airline put out bulletins to all pilots, that we were prohibited from flying in the area Malaysian was in.

That aside, anytime innocent people are killed tragically those responsible should, admit their mistakes like men instead of sub human beings below animals, show remorse and human feelings for their mistake and make restitution, not to mention cooperate as much as possible.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 15:42
  #550 (permalink)  
 
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Rottenray,

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsxabpVIAAALK9c.jpg:large

That is the remains of an anti-tank guided missile. Looks like a Konkurs? That area must be littered with ordnance and remnants so no wonder that a journalist would come across it.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 15:52
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Russia / Putin could provide access to that site in minutes. If Russian special forces which are doubtless in large numbers 'close to the scene' were ordered to make that crash site available to recover bodies the irregulars would not dare intervene.

The fact that Russia is not assisting even in just the humanitarian recovery of bodies of civilians means they deserve all the opprobrium people wish to give them.
I disagree.

Wtih the western media playing the propganda that it was Putin's finger on the button, if Russian forces were to become involved in military action to secure the site, then it throws up all kinds of allegations that Putin/Russia is taking over the site for whatever nefarious puproses anyone can wish to alledge.

Further, it would become a international issue in that one state was sending military personnel into another state and would engender shreiks of declaration of war/state take over, with the resulting allegations against Putin/Russia.

Putin's response has been that there must be a thorough and objective investigation, which in all respects, emotive issues and shrieks and finger pointing aside is actually correct.

The site is on Ukranian soil, it is down to the Ukranians, no matter what faction to ensure that international incident investigators and recovery teams be given access.

As per Putin, a thorough and objective investigation not including political leverage must take place. The media is shreiking from all sides with fantasy, allegation and in some case downright lies and fiction. This has NO place in an investigation into the loss of a civil aircraft with the souls on board.

Using this for political leverage is an offront to the victims and families of the passengers and crew.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 15:57
  #552 (permalink)  
 
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Gentlemen, why not to talk technical issues (or issues that may be related to facts) rather than emotions and politics?
I am not sure the recorders will help if it were a ground-to-air missile. Studying the debris may only help if it were not the "Buk" system involed, but a larger one like C-200/300. The locations of the latter ones are known well enough and this could narrow the scope. But the Buks are owned by all the sides currently blaming each other.
A couple of days ago the US officials vaguely mentioned they had some proofs that the launch was triggered from the territory controlled by the separatists (village or town of Snezhnoye). Could all this stuff be put on the table? If they refer to the early warning satellite system (which indeed works 24/7), its accuracy is in (big) question. I assume that the 90-95% probability ellipsoid is measured out in tens of miles and thus could also cover the locations of some Buk launch systems of the regular army.
The Russian MoD reported shortly after the accident that their stations of radio-intelligence recorded the Buk radar signals operating in different combat modes, the signals coming from several Buk complexes arranged in a networks. They were, for sure, the army ones (because only army has the networks of them). It is also known that they were relocated to the conflict area shortly before the tragedy. Actually means nothing, only proving that the teams were either training or testing the systems.
If there were some LEO satellite photos ("spy sats") that pictured the launch, this would raise another question: how could it happen that the camera was looking at this particular location at this particular moment? The constellation of those sats is not covering the whole earth area on the 24/7 basis, at all. They are orbiting the planet, not hanging on a geostationary orbit or a highly-elliptical one.
Thus, I am afraid that totally convincing "technical" proofs would not be found.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 15:58
  #553 (permalink)  
 
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Dutch relatives speaking on SKY news just now at Schipol Airport say

''Mr Putin - I want my children home -- I want to arrange their funerals - where are they? - they are rotting in field somewhere''

shameful
Yes it is shameful.

It is shameful that the media frenzy, devoid of facts, is playing politics.

Ukraine is a separate state to Russia, Putin has no control over Ukraine.

The Ukranians are not retards, they are not some alternative species, they are not incapable people.

The correct statement should be:

''Mr Yatsenyuk - I want my children home -- I want to arrange their funerals - where are they? - they are rotting in field somewhere''


The media behaviour on this is not only disgusting it is highly dangerous and inflammatory.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 15:59
  #554 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by stuckgear
if Russian forces were to become involved in military action to secure the site, then it throws up all kinds of allegations that Putin/Russia is taking over the site for whatever nefarious puproses anyone can wish to alledge.
Putin is desperately trying to distance himself from this tragedy. If he was to use the influence he undoubtedly has, it would place him even closer to culpability.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 17:12
  #555 (permalink)  
 
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the responsibility should be shared between those who shot down the plane, those who improperly trained them and those who allowed the plane to fly that corridor because they sure were informed of aforementioned two facts
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 17:30
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Originally Posted by tsenis
There are counter claims that the alleged video was shoot in Krasnoarmeysk which is controlled by Ukrainian government since May.

Transport of BUK System to Russia filmed – really?

After some geolocation work I tend to believe this version of the story, although reluctantly since I know both parties are engeaged in a dirty Pr war.

Any way I do not base conclutions on videos & pictures posted here and there without verification


tsenis, the Krasnoarmeysk claim has already been disproved on other websites. You can see a low rooftop in the back ground, meaning the terrain slopes and there are trolley bus cables visible behind the billboard.

Krasnoarmeysk (Ukrainian held) sits on a flat plain and doesn't have a trolley bus line.

Krasnodon (rebel held) sits on a hill and does have a trolley bus line.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 18:21
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Until very recently on another thread we were debating the issue of Heightened Security Alert, emergency laws and measures. It seems fat lot of good it did making sure all air travellers had charged up batteries for their lap tops, tablets, mobile phones, shavers and all manner of other electronic gizzmos. All the spooks must have been so busy with this nonsense they overlooked the obvious, the real shooting war going on over there in Eastern Ukraine. Should they also not be held accountable for this tragedy.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 19:23
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Speed of disclosure, impartiality, and co-operation is what this incident desperately needs right now. Primarily for the sakes of the victims' relatives.
Tell this to the masked and camouflaged rebels who control this piece of land, or tell this to whoever controls them, otherwise it is meaningless.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 19:28
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Remains of missile found in the vicinity of the crash site(?)

Rottenray has in post #528 a link to a site showing remains of a missile found at the crash scene(?):
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/BsxabpVIAAALK9c.jpg:large

He has the opinion that the picture shown has been photoshopped and gives a number of reasons for his standpoint.

I do not know whether the picture is photoshopped, but I am convinced that the missile shown is NOT a SA11. I have compared the missile shown with a very clear picture of a SA11 from the following link:
Buk missile system - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Look at the fins for example - on the missile shown in the first link they are almost as high as the diameter of the missile itself. On the next link (showing a genuine SA11!) they are about half the size of the missile diameter.
And there are no external fasteners on a SA11, and although hard to judge, I should think that the first missile is much smaller that a SA11.
I also think that a missile falling from more that 10000 meters would show much more damage than can be seen on the picture.
Whether the missile shown is an anti-tank missile as suggested by TEEEj in post #564, I do not know.

I do think that the B777 was shot down, but with a missile not in any way connected with the remains shown in the first link.
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Old 20th Jul 2014, 19:43
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I don't know if others have yet seen it, but FR24 are now providing access to a form of playback.

The flight appears to have reached FL310 overhead Bielefeld in western Germany long before cruising across Poland at that altitude. Upon entering Ukraine airspace over an hour later, it climbed to FL330 and appeared to remain at that altitude for over an hour before it was downed.

On that evidence, any spin on that story that the aircraft was instructed to descend from FL350 to FL330 "only minutes before" it was downed would appear to be extremely questionable.

I do not for one minute believe that any major power ordered or manipulated the shootdown, but it is surely an international crime by unknown individuals working for major powers that these types of weapon were knowingly and recently entrusted to thugs and incompetents and thereby civilian traffic was permitted to be routinely and unknowingly risked daily.

Since the major powers like to play politics while loved ones lie rotting far from home with no-one admitting anything, I would like to know whether it is Aviation War Risks underwriters or Aviation Non-War Risks underwriters who are preparing to shoulder this loss ? Or will they and their advisors also be playing politics tomorrow Monday morning in the City?

Had any underwriters already designated this airspace as a war zone ?

I heard this weekend that there are over 40 current wars being waged in this world. How many get flown over daily as routine? I wonder how many are designated as actual war zones by aviation underwriters who are supposed to be the risk experts?
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