Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[Neogen]

Search area for 18th March:

[techgeek]

deplorably dismal data

Is anyone else troubled by the lack of accurate empirical data released to date?

1. Was ACARS log-off received?
2. Was AMSS log-off message received?
3. Was ADS logged on and contract established and, if so, for which reports?
4. The pings were sent to AES
5. The pings were received from AES
6. 6 pings - list UTC for each ping
7. 1 "ping position plot" from last ping released - where are the other 5?
8. Is Inmarsat unable to preserve details of past pings and, if so, how do we know 6 pings occurred ?
9. Either "pre-programmed waypoint(s)" were or were not reported by ADS contract over ACARS and, if not, how do we know this?
10. Did both Vietnamese and Malaysian primary radar paint a/c altitude excursions?
11. If FL430+ confirmed, did pilot practice 777 flight on home sim in coffin corner?
12. There must be a map of locations wreckage is known to NOT be located!

Every one of these items can be determined without FDR or CVR. I believe these things have been known to investigators for days now.

[D.S.]

Interesting...

So if the new seemingly supported (at least multiple organizations verifying it through "unidentified sources") news is true, then a couple things might be able to be put together to come up with an explanation for another glaring, and rather inexcusable, issue.

First, we (might) now have verification that initial Turn/WP change was actually programed into the system prior to 1:07

Then handover contact with plane at 1:19 or 1:22* which was at least rumored/questionably "verified" to be Co-Pilot
(*both times are frustratingly seemingly "confirmed," as is typical for absolutely everything the Malaysian Government says)

We also have the very unconfirmed but possible contact with Japan-Bound plane/MH88(?) saying they spoke to who they believed was the Co-Pilot shortly after 1:30 (if it is true, it is very reasonable that pilot was told by investigators to say absolutely nothing more about it while the investigation is ongoing. It is also likely a recording of said communication exists, and is now in the investigators hands. Again, if it is true, at least)

Could those things (and who knows what else that hasn't leaked) possibly be the reason behind the simulator sitting unchecked for at least 9 days?

Maybe they only took said simulator now because of the public outrage over the seemingly unexplainable and inexcusable ignoring of possible evidence as to the whereabouts of the passengers. Was their not doing so prior because they already had a solid reason to believe the pilot was not the one who was even in question here when they were tossing around their possible involvement?

More ifs and maybes than I usually like to work with, but makes sense while merely connecting some suspected/semi-confirmed/possible facts without conflict to absolutely everything else we do know.

I would gain back quite a bit of respect for the Malaysian Government if the above was true. And I do really, really want at least the Pilot to be clear in this - he seems like a truly fantastic guy from what little I know about him

[ana1936]

Just a reminder of my own maps posted on PPRuNe from last Saturday …



This showed where the red ping circle meets the blue max range circle, outside the white JORN radar circle.

So, if you look at the AMSA search area, (link posted above) you see they are searching exactly that area.

(Although ``exactly'' is a bit of a misnomer for such a large deserted search area).

[Blake777]

ana1936

Hmmm... Does that search area map for the Australians give a hint that JORN may have been on??

[The Wawa Zone]

In regards to 'runways' on the sim:

An unnamed source told Berita Harian that while it was too early to make any conclusions on the new finding.

Then why, pray tell, release the information now in this form. Either the 'unnamed source' is looking for something, anything, to tell someone, or this is part of some attempt to blame the owner of the sim.

This is very much in keeping with the controlled release of drivel that has characterised the last 11 days.

BOSSIE; I'd prefer the .45 Glock any day !

[clayne]

Originally Posted by Blake777

Hmmm... Does that search area map for the Australians give a hint that JORN may have been on??

Red circle meets the blue circle. Nothing to do with JORN.

[D.S.]

techgeek said

Is anyone else troubled by the lack of accurate empirical data released to date?

It is worse than just that - so many of the actual known facts are only confirmed facts depending on the Malaysian Press Conferences you happened to have caught. Everything they say is seemingly kinda-facts, with their details fluctuating slightly just enough to leave plenty of speculation. (and every so often they throw in some good old flat out contradiction for good measure!)

I can honestly say I have never seen anything like it before. Just mindbogglingly frustrating, really

[onetrack]

If MH370 actually did go into the Indian Ocean, in the region of the latest search area - then it's highly likely a % of any floating, surviving wreckage will almost certainly, eventually wash up onto the West Australian coast, due to constant prevailing S/Westerly surface winds.

[ana1936]

Searching around where the red and blue circle meets tells us either that JORN was on, or that for some other reason they think (or guess) that the plane did not zig zag around much after leaving the Andaman Sea. It just went straight (almost due) south at its cruising speed of about 900 km/h.

And went into the water during the hour or so after 8:11am.

[nitpicker330]

The fact that Australia have now committed 3 x P3's 1 x C130 1 x 737 Wedgetail the Kiwis 1 x P3 and the US 1 x P8 Poseidon to the search SW of Perth must say something about what info they now have.

[onetrack]

D.S. - Put yourself in the Malaysians position. This is their 9/11. They have never had to deal with anything like this before.
MAS has an excellent safety record, they're not African cowboys, despite the occasional laxity in procedures.
They're obliged to hand out some info, they're no doubt working with conflicting basic data that has to be analysed and re-analysed to ensure erroneous information is discarded.

They have to give some hope to the relatives, whilst not giving away crucial investigation lines that often involve military secrecy. It's kinda like tight rope walking, but with no end to the rope.
I don't envy them, particularly when you consider the amount of skill in planning and deceit, that went into this disappearance. It's unparalleled in the history of aviation, or any other transportation field, for that matter.

The additional horror will come when the lawyers start, and when MAS goes under, due to the run-on effect of this event on its image and revenue.

[harrryw]

Australia (and the US ) have massive submarine detection arrays covering all that area so if the plane did hit the sea there I am sure there would be some indication.
And whoever the Captain's inlaws are does not seem to need admitting. There is no secret to his (and many other people's) political leaning.

[Blake777]

Apologies ana1936 - your post crossed mine. I was interested also in the fact that the first search area, for which I haven't seen a map, was north and west of Cocos Islands. Now they have moved to the published SAR which is where the blue and red circles intersect. It just does bring up the question that they have chosen currently to eliminate waters closer to WA, which is likely not to be coincidental.

Thanks for your work on the mapping by the way - extremely helpful.

[wdew]

Clasping at straws but the hot GLEX activity around Ghanzi in Afghan could be related ?????????

[butterfly68]

The history tells that when something so mysterious happens it's a normal tendency to try to find to solve it with complicated or even sci-fi solutions,( let's see Amelia Hearhart disappearance in 1937, it was even told that she could have been captured by the Japanese soldiers and kept prisoner, but what probably happened was just a crash in the sea because the airplane run out of fuel). So what I am thinking is that also in this case it could be more simple then what the whole world is wondering. Electrical failure, maybe fire, ACARS and Transponder failes, maybe smoke or an Hypoxia situation recognised by the crew which immediately tried to turn back to KL, tried to insert new data in the FMS ( under hypoxia you think you are doing right when in reality you do crazy things)and this could explain the erratic behaviour of the plane and then it just flew until it run out of fuel.

( by the way, I'm not familiar with the ACARS system, is there any alarm that the crew will receive in case it fails suddenly on its own? can the crew notice it in case it happens?)

[DespairingTraveller]

The "evidence", that this accident has a "criminal" background is so rediculously "thin", I really donīt understand this whole discussion.

Quite. As far as I understand events, the "criminal" interpretation all stems from a statement (by the Malaysian PM?) that ACARS and transponders were deliberately switched off.

As far as ACARS is concerned, this was subsequently clarified to confirm that an expected transmission simply did not occur. I don't think anything has been said about the transponder.

Absent a deliberate switch-off, it's difficult to see what has been confirmed so far that is inconsistent with an (as yet not understood) mechanical or electrical failure, possibly a fire, which culminated in loss of crew, after they had attempted a turn back to attempt a landing somewhere. The aircraft then flying on in whatever condition of autopilot or trim it was left in, until it met its end at fuel exhaustion. It's happened before.

And even a deliberate switch-off doesn't prove criminal intent...

And yet the entire world seems now to be gripped in a fever of speculation and hysteria about mysterious cargoes, government plots, hyper-terrorists, concealed landing strips, terrain-hugging airliners and Bond-like super-villains - presumably stroking white cats in high tech conference rooms!

I don't get it.

[SOPS]

Please stop this non standard RT talk. I got handed over last night and the controller said to us, and I quote, "XXXXX 456 call XXX on 123.45. Have a good flight, see ya" it happens all the time, nothing suspicious about it at all.

[Pontius Navigator]

SOPS, if it is my post to which you refer, you have picked up the wrong inference. RT was just another possible indicator of the professional standards by that FO and tolerated by at least two captains.

BJ,

The RT is only one aspect and a minor one.

[ajamieson]

Question. When the New York Times reports that the left turn was ",,,carried out through a computer system that was most likely programmed by someone in the plane's cockpit who was knowledgeable about airplane systems..." - is that a convoluted way of suggesting that the auto-pilot had not been disengaged?