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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 18th Mar 2014, 11:22
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There has been much talk of the Malaysian military primary radar and actions consistent with a deliberate act but I haven't seen a trace or any justification for the consistency statement. Do they mean it flew straight and level, or that it performed nice rate one turns, or an impressive aerobatic sequence? I am suspicious at the apparent confusion from the Malaysians.

If the Vietnamese were looking for it after it failed to make contact, isn't it inconceivable that the Malaysians weren't doing the same? If they were, and the military were tracking it and it was flying in a controlled manner, what would be their next actions. Intercept? Shoot it down if it was heading for land and not responding? If that had happened could they obfuscate the investigation to avoid detection of their action? Which governments would be complicit in such a cover up?

No one wants the spectre of a successful hijack to reenter the geopolitical domain.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 11:23
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The Reward tool

Originally Posted by EPPO
I think a missing plane is something to worry about.
I think we can safely say that that is the understatement of the year/decade.

Sorry to interrupt the “smooth flow” of conversation here.

Now the 10th day, the trail of MH370 is clearly quite cold. The amount of manpower, time and finance expended is uncountable and still growing rapidly with no real results. The effects on families and friends are profound.
Discussions about the hows and whys no doubt will lead to further improvements to make our airways, airlines and lives safe and is always welcomed.

But answers will only start coming when MH370 and/or its FDR/CVR is found. The priority now is therefore on finding the a/c. No doubt many of the searchers/investigators are greatly motivated and altruistic. However the greatest motivator of human behaviour by and large is money. It would bring into play millions of people all over the world (who so far have not been involved in the SAR and have no motivation to do so), including the ordinary inhabitants of countries along the corridors of search.

Why doesn’t someone announce a reward? The Malaysian Government should be the one to initiate this. This a/c incident is unprecedented and the methods used to find it should also be.

Tin hat on.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 11:23
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Funny that the search area was defined so far south today. Yesterday after posting the Indian Ocean sectors at High-res visible sectors for Southeast Indian Ocean - 8 March 2014 - Weather Graphics I received a PM from a user named Chicklets. He has 0 posts to his name and is unable to get past the moderation, but he said this: "Southwest Region, 0100 UTC, four squares over and three down from top left. In the top middle/left of the square there appears to be a nice straight line."

Maybe my eyes at age 45 are already getting too weary to see it, but perhaps one of you can make it out. If it's there, that would place the coordinates at roughly near 43N 87W (within 2 deg), which is right in the area VH-XXX posted. If this artifact is really there, anything going south would easily peg it as MAS370. If you all do crosscheck and identify anything conclusive I will check the imagery and get an exact lat/long set.

I had shunned these images giving any useful information since much of the air mass is subsident, but looking at the images in those southern sectors I do see cirriform clouds south of 40N consistent with jet stream westerlies and heightened relative humidity in the upper troposphere. If the plane got that far south and was at FL450 for any extended duration it would certainly have been laying down a persistent contrail (or a shadow, as that area looks mostly cloud-covered).

I do realize at this point we're grabbing at straws, so this could just as very well be some anomaly in the cloud texture.

Regarding the mention of 250m AQUA/TERRA satellites... that would certainly be my first "go to" solution if the flights were in the air during the late morning, but by the time those satellites were overheard I'd expect any contrails to be long gone or diffused into a cirrus layer with an unidentifiable origin.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 11:26
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Oddly enough there seem to be two Hang Sheng 1:

HANG SHENG 1 - Cargo ship - Details and current position MMSI 413501228

and

HANG SHENG 1 - Cargo ship - Details and current position MMSI 413501230

(and one of them is where it is to be expected...).
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 11:29
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Quote (onetrack):
If MH370 actually did go into the Indian Ocean, in the region of the latest search area - then it's highly likely a % of any floating, surviving wreckage will almost certainly, eventually wash up onto the West Australian coast, due to constant prevailing S/Westerly surface winds.

Not necessarily; one, the Leeuwin current off of West Australia runs parallel to the coast and, two the search area extend below 40˚ south latitude which puts in in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current -if it went down there debris might wash up on Tierra del Fuego or the West Antarctic Peninsula
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 11:43
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Draw a line from KL to point of lost contact, then from this point across Malaysia to the last raw data radar position point, then from this point south towards the deepest area of the Indian Ocean. Put a X where the known fuel reserves would have been exhausted.
Put a 200 NM circle around this X and start searching within this circle 4000 meters or so down.

My guess.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 11:47
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ANA1936, your red blue white map spot on, well done.

The search area appears to confirm Jorn was On.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 11:48
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Oddly enough there seem to be two Hang Sheng 1:
HANG SHENG 1 - Cargo ship - Details and current position MMSI 413501228
and
HANG SHENG 1 - Cargo ship - Details and current position MMSI 413501230
(and one of them is where it is to be expected...).
D.
Also unusual of a merchant vessel not to have an IMO.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 11:53
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hope that chinese ship is an icebreaker as its on or close to continental Antarctica heading south at 51kts! Live Ships Map - AIS - Vessel Traffic and Positions - AIS Marine Traffic
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 11:55
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Harryw

re your link to US littoral combat ships

Are you aware what "littoral" means?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 11:58
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From what I've seen of the convoluted 'lose face' reasoning of this investigation so far, I can only imagine the pressure on any crew member there to try to remain asymptomatic rather than lose face by seeking help or stepping down whilst taking antidepressant medication.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 11:59
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@Tvasquez

@tvasquez

I can see it ! can you put a circle around it and post it here ?

How does that line up with the current search area and predicted paths..possible to overlay the positions ?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 12:04
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Naive question from a non-pilot: assuming a decompression, might the (disoriented) pilot have pulled the transponder/radio CB by mistake thinking he was doing something more appropriate? That is, on the 777 is there any CB located near the radio CB that you might reasonably want to pull following a decompression?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 12:08
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So of the options re aircraft final destination we have:
  1. South China Sea - Not likely due to data and intensive search - Cause would be sudden destruction/crash and not found.
  2. Northern Sector - Less likely outcome at present: Cause would be Sophisticated Hijacking. Possibly same scenario re pax as per 3 below but hostage option another possibility, i.e. they were alive whilst in the air at least. Either aircraft landed somewhere and dodged radar/satellite, crashed due to running out of fuel, deliberate action by PIC to avoid 9/11 type scenario or some fight happening on board as per United 93.
  3. Southern Sector - Most likely outcome at present: Suicide mission to remote place so aircraft hopefully never found to make sure of insurance pay-out for family. Pilot overcomes/shuts out other crew member(s), goes up to incapacitate (..) pax then sneaks away as far as possible and runs out of fuel or crashes.

Hypoxia scenario starting just after 1:20 and before 1:37 less likely due to data, i.e. too many unlikely (and not aimed at alleviating situation) input moments from some agency on board. Only scenario I can remotely consider would be hypoxia scenario after point of last radar contact (02:40) due to fight between PIC and others on west coast of Malaysia and aircraft continues south until fuel runs out.

What else fits the data so far?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 12:11
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Originally Posted by bekolblockage
Similar ATC experience, half of it in this region.
While I agree with you on the "goodnight" bit, its the "alright,..." that sounds a bit odd to me togther with the lack of callsign if that is the case.
I've spoken with hundreds of MH flights over the years and can't recall anyone acknowledging a frequency transfer with just "alright, ......"

Granted he is answering his own countrymen ATC, so maybe a little more familiarity crept in there.
It would be of more interest to hear what the ATC said on handoff - if the controller was punchy and professional 'alright goodnight' would be strange, if the controller was flippant and made some comment on handoff then that may have triggered the 'alright goodnight'. Out of context it is not what you would expect, however it may make more sense in context.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 12:12
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Many interesting versions have been addressed and discussed, but the "Occam's razor" principle suggests to first evaluate and elaborate the most obvious options.

IMHO, this means to focus on a "trivial" hijacking. If that was possible in US back in 2001, why similar guys (e.g. islamic extremists) cannot do that now in KL where the security is not very tough (my personal opinion as a passenger that flew to/from that airport several times in the recent years)?

A long and careful (and hidden) work of many security services may (and hopefully will) bring more on the desk than chaotic search involving many planes and vessels. After 9/11 the details of the entire gang were revealed quite quickly. Thus, it was doable.

It appears that in China (because of their known regime) they could screen background of their passengers, but there were people of many nationalities onboard. I wonder if all the countries whose citizens were in the plane are eager to cooperate and have capabilities to dig out all the aspects of their personal life? But again, this now seems to be the only way to crack the puzzle. If the debris were not found in 10 days, the probability of finding them later reduces exponentially.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 12:18
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From what I've seen of the convoluted 'lose face' reasoning of this investigation so far, I can only imagine the pressure on any crew member there to try to remain asymptomatic rather than lose face by seeking help or stepping down whilst taking antidepressant medication.
Not just there....
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 12:19
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Are there any countries left searching the South China Sea? Or has it been totally abandoned? I hope not. They should keep there options open.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 12:21
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Originally Posted by femanvate
When your "always on" device shorts and catches on fire, you'd wish it had a breaker to fully disable it...
I agree - give a breaker to disable it - and disabling the device will be treated by all agencies as an emergency squawk - as obviously it would only be turned off if you were being hijacked or you were on fire. So within a short period you would have a fighter escort to the nearest suitable airport for landing as if you had a suspect cargo - be taxied to the most remote part of the airport and have everyone, including you, carefully searched and interviews without tea and biscuits.

I believe that the world has now got to this state. IFF it turns out that this was a crew initiated 'hijack' AND the aircraft is subsequently used for some kind of terrorist incident. Expect pilots' views on what they don't like not to be given a whole lot of precedence.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 12:25
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Yes....I do know littoral means close to shore. Probably comes from lighters which were used for cargo.
THe point I wass making with these was small ships which normally could operate at 20 knots but could perform for some time at the speed the website quoted.
'
I think the only people who really know what they are are not likely to tell us. I do notice that the tracks of the Pilot Boat Parmelia however are pretty accurate so presumably these tracks are not too inacurate either.
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