Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
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For those who think the captain's home simulator is a red flag due to how complete it appears, take a quick look at Viperpit(s).org. You'll see multiple examples of F-16 cockpits that put the captain as well as Hollywood to shame, complete with fully operational displays, gauges, buttons and switches, all connected to free software (BMS 4.32) that does a damn good job of simulating an F-16C Block 50/52.
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More than Enough & Do Your Homework
I am breaking a longstanding rule of mine not to post. I am a grateful observer of this forum. For about seven years I have visited because of the quality of thought, reason and gravitas offered herein. During this thread I felt obliged to register because I found myself reading postings constantly, copying them and evaluating.
Once I was paid to fly and conduct SAR. When I aged I failed the paid or "pro" part of this site's offering and thus I listened and learned. And then I married into a family of producers (generations) of these great airplanes and I have to pay attention.
Today, I observe a profound change in postings and attitudes. There IS TOO MUCH speculation on the souls aboard MH370. I survived a horrific crash in the Andes and know what my Father went through. I have lost seven flying buddies, brothers really and each lost was profound torment. I ache and choke when I visualize the family's waiting for crew and passengers...
Not to take the time to do your homework and read all the posts is juvenile.
It also is a loss for your search for fact. This is not a forum within which you can validate your view of your cleverness or intelligence. It is a gathering of experienced aviators and those that allow aviation to exist...honor that.
And finally, my great Scottish Aunt Bette, said: " ...there is no sense havin' ignorance unless you can show it." This is one place I know I hope never to show my arrogance, let alone ignorance. I have many questions, and they get answered here by remarkable women and men.
Please forgive my intrusion. I find what I am reading too much to remain silent.
Once I was paid to fly and conduct SAR. When I aged I failed the paid or "pro" part of this site's offering and thus I listened and learned. And then I married into a family of producers (generations) of these great airplanes and I have to pay attention.
Today, I observe a profound change in postings and attitudes. There IS TOO MUCH speculation on the souls aboard MH370. I survived a horrific crash in the Andes and know what my Father went through. I have lost seven flying buddies, brothers really and each lost was profound torment. I ache and choke when I visualize the family's waiting for crew and passengers...
Not to take the time to do your homework and read all the posts is juvenile.
It also is a loss for your search for fact. This is not a forum within which you can validate your view of your cleverness or intelligence. It is a gathering of experienced aviators and those that allow aviation to exist...honor that.
And finally, my great Scottish Aunt Bette, said: " ...there is no sense havin' ignorance unless you can show it." This is one place I know I hope never to show my arrogance, let alone ignorance. I have many questions, and they get answered here by remarkable women and men.
Please forgive my intrusion. I find what I am reading too much to remain silent.
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I also want to say that the Australian girl coming forward with the cockpit pictures and perhaps even the telling of the Captain's wife and children leaving the day before smells too much like a set up for the end of this story. It's a smoke screen being put forward to add beef to the story.
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Tim Vasquez
Weather Graphics
Thank you for providing this.
It has crossed my mind in a hopeful moment that
some TOMNOD like satellite photos of the areas needing crowdsearch
searching would be posted... I was fancying USA using their
photos and putting them on the massive healthcare.gov site. LOL.
Weather Graphics
Thank you for providing this.
It has crossed my mind in a hopeful moment that
some TOMNOD like satellite photos of the areas needing crowdsearch
searching would be posted... I was fancying USA using their
photos and putting them on the massive healthcare.gov site. LOL.
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Quote (galaxy flyer):
After this much time, I find it hard to believe it being on the "northern track" or on the ground. The US has ample satellite means of reconnaissance to identify the plane, if it ws at any known airport. An off-airport landing would likely trigger the ELT, unless it can be deactivated in flight. It can't on my plane.
Not to mention the Chinese -over whose territory the 'northern track' is indicated. -my opinion: given the sat capabilities of the U.S. and China a whole lot more is known than has been released.
After this much time, I find it hard to believe it being on the "northern track" or on the ground. The US has ample satellite means of reconnaissance to identify the plane, if it ws at any known airport. An off-airport landing would likely trigger the ELT, unless it can be deactivated in flight. It can't on my plane.
Not to mention the Chinese -over whose territory the 'northern track' is indicated. -my opinion: given the sat capabilities of the U.S. and China a whole lot more is known than has been released.
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D.S.
2 - ACARS last transmitted somewhere along the 40 Degree line at 8:11
The SATCOM system, however, continued to function, in a sort of keep-alive mode, but did not pass flight or aircraft data to the satellite(s). It's the last of those recurring signals that Inmarsat has plotted along roughly the 40N arcs.
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Posted By The Dominican
Until there is concrete evidence of their involvement, I consider the flight crew as two more victims in this horrible crime.......!
Until there is concrete evidence of their involvement, I consider the flight crew as two more victims in this horrible crime.......!
Props are for boats!
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Reasons not to stop searching in the South China Sea
1. Last SSR 01:22 am near IGARI waypoint
2. Very descriptive eyewitness account from the Song Mercur Oil Rig off Vung Tau. Which was checked by one Veitnam Aircraft only, no sea or sea floor sonar search ever done to date.
3. Chinese reported a seismic event in South China Sea off Veitnam at same location.
4. The 40 degree IOR Satellite ring passes through the same area South Veitnam coast . Which is only being discounted for one reason radar coverage. The last ping at 08:11 am was on this 40 degree ring. Some reports saying all the pings came from 1 place. Yes they did come from one place, the wreckage in the South China Sea until it sunk some time after 08:11am.
5. Kota Baru police report loud bang off the coast.
Reason to now discount the Malaysian Military Radar
1. It came to us way later in the search. And seems erroneous in nature,
2. The area of reported tracking Mh370 over the Malay peninsula is a high traffic region! many aircraft in and out of Phuket , hadyai , Krabi, langkawi, and Penang etc.
3. Aircraft was reported at multiple FLight levels, some way above service ceiling B777. To me these plot are all different aircraft doing different things and not one aircraft. I bet the jet at FL450 was a Bizjet for sure.
4. Many countries have reported no primary radar contact with such a target at the times reported now Indonesia, India, and even now Pakistan deny radar contact.
PLEASE DO NOT STOP SEARCHING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA! KEEP YOUR ASSETS IN PLACE AND START DOING SEA FLOOR SEARCH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AIRWAYS!
1. Last SSR 01:22 am near IGARI waypoint
2. Very descriptive eyewitness account from the Song Mercur Oil Rig off Vung Tau. Which was checked by one Veitnam Aircraft only, no sea or sea floor sonar search ever done to date.
3. Chinese reported a seismic event in South China Sea off Veitnam at same location.
4. The 40 degree IOR Satellite ring passes through the same area South Veitnam coast . Which is only being discounted for one reason radar coverage. The last ping at 08:11 am was on this 40 degree ring. Some reports saying all the pings came from 1 place. Yes they did come from one place, the wreckage in the South China Sea until it sunk some time after 08:11am.
5. Kota Baru police report loud bang off the coast.
Reason to now discount the Malaysian Military Radar
1. It came to us way later in the search. And seems erroneous in nature,
2. The area of reported tracking Mh370 over the Malay peninsula is a high traffic region! many aircraft in and out of Phuket , hadyai , Krabi, langkawi, and Penang etc.
3. Aircraft was reported at multiple FLight levels, some way above service ceiling B777. To me these plot are all different aircraft doing different things and not one aircraft. I bet the jet at FL450 was a Bizjet for sure.
4. Many countries have reported no primary radar contact with such a target at the times reported now Indonesia, India, and even now Pakistan deny radar contact.
PLEASE DO NOT STOP SEARCHING THE SOUTH CHINA SEA! KEEP YOUR ASSETS IN PLACE AND START DOING SEA FLOOR SEARCH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AIRWAYS!
Last edited by Sheep Guts; 17th Mar 2014 at 01:38.
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jmmilner said
It is not He Had Simulator = He Did it
I am pretty sure not a single person believes that.
What it instead is
-Plane goes missing in extremely sophisticated way; one that was quite possibly practiced before attempting to pull off.
-Last known person to fly the plane has a devise he can practice flying the plane on, in nearly any situation, in his home.
It makes no sense refusing to check it, just like every single other person on the plane needs to be checked to see if they possibly have a way of figuring out how to pull this off.
For those who think the captain's home simulator is a red flag due to how complete it appears, take a quick look at Viperpit(s).org.
I am pretty sure not a single person believes that.
What it instead is
-Plane goes missing in extremely sophisticated way; one that was quite possibly practiced before attempting to pull off.
-Last known person to fly the plane has a devise he can practice flying the plane on, in nearly any situation, in his home.
It makes no sense refusing to check it, just like every single other person on the plane needs to be checked to see if they possibly have a way of figuring out how to pull this off.
Some thoughts
Since this thread was started on March 7, there have been almost 5,000 posts, and over 7.5 million views.
We have muddled through a huge number of theories, and possible causes.
Once in awhile, someone brings up that 239 souls may have been lost.
As we trudge through this, I would ask all to take moment, a breath, and think some good thoughts about those on board MH 370.
Regards,
OBD
We have muddled through a huge number of theories, and possible causes.
Once in awhile, someone brings up that 239 souls may have been lost.
As we trudge through this, I would ask all to take moment, a breath, and think some good thoughts about those on board MH 370.
Regards,
OBD
Last edited by Old Boeing Driver; 17th Mar 2014 at 01:08. Reason: Date
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Professional pilots should bear in mind that the MH370 S&R fiasco will likely result in the public's demanding changes. It might be wise for professional pilots to propose their own solution, rather than wait for governments and regulators to impose new rules. Perhaps the pilots' unions should propose that:
1. the automatic reporting system installed by the airframe manufacturer, which transmits data through the Inmarsat satellite system, be modified so that it sends a GPS position as well as hull data;
2. that the frequency of the Inmarsat reports be increased from every half-hour to, say, once every ten minutes;
3. that this reporting system be tied to the aircraft's main power bus (and thus placed outside human control); and
4. that the pilots' unions would pay the marginal cost which, at $2.00 per transmission, is not very much at all.
This service would:
1. increase the difficulty of a third-party hijacking;
2. protect all pilots from the stain on them which may remain if the mystery of MH370 is never sorted out; and
3. provide much comfort to future passengers.
1. the automatic reporting system installed by the airframe manufacturer, which transmits data through the Inmarsat satellite system, be modified so that it sends a GPS position as well as hull data;
2. that the frequency of the Inmarsat reports be increased from every half-hour to, say, once every ten minutes;
3. that this reporting system be tied to the aircraft's main power bus (and thus placed outside human control); and
4. that the pilots' unions would pay the marginal cost which, at $2.00 per transmission, is not very much at all.
This service would:
1. increase the difficulty of a third-party hijacking;
2. protect all pilots from the stain on them which may remain if the mystery of MH370 is never sorted out; and
3. provide much comfort to future passengers.
The system you are describing is already expected to be retrofitted to aircraft in the near future. It is Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Contract (ADS-C) Extended Projected Profile or ADS-C EPP. This will be used over VHF data link FANS 2/B and over SATCOM FANS 1/A (it already is in use by some aircraft). FANS 1/A ADS-C is transmitted ~every 10 minutes but could be at 90 second intervals; FANS 2/B ADS-C could also be transmitted every 90 seconds. This would be in line with SESAR/NextGen and would also answer the BEA requests after AF447. The advantage of ADS-C EPP is that it transmits up to 128 waypoints from the FMC active route and a lot of other data.
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Malaysian jet 'avoided radars in three countries' | Stuff.co.nz
Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 dropped to altitudes as low as 5000 feet, or 1524 metres, using a dangerous flying technique called "terrain masking" to avoid radar in at least three countries, investigators believe.
...it is understood investigators say it is more likely the plane is in the northern corridor where there are unstable governments, mountainous terrain and extremist groups.
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Why go to such trouble? Possible explanations
Consensus is it was a deliberate act with significant knowledge and non-trivial planning and flight for several hours either on Northern arc through China towards Eastern Europe or South to Indian Ocean. No single convincing explanation has yet emerged as to why go to these lengths. A few thoughts.
A) The theory of going North and landing somewhere remote for re-use as a weapon is interesting but I am assuming all strips of sufficient length are known as a result of a Cold War spanning many decades after the advent of high resolution satellite imagery and have been investigated by now by satellite, and ones with convenient hangarage more directly (although we may not know). One would hope that (at least) until it is found all the military around will be on high readiness and alert for any unexpected primary contact or questionable secondary and a T7 trying to creep along slowly at low level pretending to be a GA VFR flight with no tx is likely to get noticed, so 2nd part of plan seems less likely to work, we hope. But that's not to say any terrorist who has done what seems like the difficult bit was sufficiently rational and self-critical to have figured that out, and may have a plan. So I'd say this is still possible but not that likely.
B)Or did they carefully plan everything else but then have a "Doh!" moment by overestimating fuel on board or burning more than planned in initial high climb then lower level flight and fail to make a visible target perhaps in Europe and crash somewhere dark in remote Eastern Europe, without a fireball after engines flameout, still waiting to be discovered. Seems possible, question is could they have disabled ELTs first (and would they have bothered if intending to hit somewhere else anyway).
C)Indian Ocean if you want to make it hard to be found, this could be the pilot wanting it to be a long time to have cause discovered so his estranged family don't suffer, but arguably a dive at Vne into ground in remote jungle with lots of fuel still on board possibly with some erratic inputs, less planned and muffled struggle sounds on CVR (and maybe even a radio call suggesting distress) in case it survives would seem simpler unless he really wanted to keep a mystery alive. So possible but frankly seems unlikely. I would remain sceptical of any conjecture based on his t-shirts, family situation, etc as I suspect a sizeable proportion of professional pilots who won't ever plan or execute a complex disappearance have personal lives which could be construed as indicative of latent dissatisfaction with something. Now if his flight sim happens to have a route corresponding to route flown and relevant recent manual extracts, then we might reconsider but until then nothing to me supports this.
D)Or someone else who actively wants extended mystery, perhaps a true Bond villain type organisation who wants to show it can make a plane disappear... yet then apparently keeps quiet? Of course they may be in secret discussions as to what they want with some vague threat to repeat if motive is financial and they seriously think (unlikely) they can elude most of the world's co-ordinated efforts to track them. Seems unlikely.
E)Personally I doubt whether a religious or political fanatical terrorist organisation would go to such systematic lengths and not want a show either with a dramatic climax or publicly claiming responsibility and I suspect all chatter from all known such organisations has been minutely scrutinised for any hint. Time may reveal more, but if something useful were known or even suspected, there would be a lot of pressure to reveal at least something by now to allay public unease that authorities didn't have a clue.
F)Or a true "terrorist" wanting extended uncertainty - I suspect many rational pilots and passengers are more uneasy about flying and this may give a similar knock to aviation as 9/11. Perhaps a fanatical environmental group unheard of previously, many environmental activists are intelligent people with the wit I guess to access information, and off the radar (no pun intended) of conventionally blinkered security services. A recent BBC Horizon as it happened showed a group of trained US security people all failed to spot a similar threat and only a newbie did as the experienced analysts all looked for the usual suspects. Worryingly it seems hard to rule this out, though I suspect if it were correct, it is unlikely to be repeated, which if appreciated makes it less worrying, I suppose! Possible but also seems unlikely.
G) Interestingly the northern track plus any flying beyond last "ping" gives a good chance of aircraft being in China. Now given that China was the original destination, and the passengers were naturally full of people who know the country, it is not impossible that there was a plan to throw people off the scent then head back to a point in China for some purpose. Now just suppose (admittedly no evidence I have seen to support this) Chinese military discovered it some time after it had first entered Chinese airspace then hastily intercepted and shot it down. Would they A) freely admit to the watching world their air defences are porous and that they have just shot down an aircraft with hundreds of their own citizens on board or B) keep quiet and go on the offensive and criticise another county's incompetence for the incident? I don't know and it would be speculation from me or anyone else without inside knowledge to pursue this thought, but I can't quite see yet why this can be ruled out.
Before anyone shouts (although it seems this may be summarily deleted) I fully accept there is no evidence (to my knowledge) convincingly supporting or disproving any of these theories yet, which is my point. It would be good if at least some of them could be concisely sensibly rejected with even a single hard fact, rather than just someone else's supposition that they are unlikely. I personally don't see a better explanation out there yet, though there may be one. So applying Sherlock's principle, one of these unlikely theories for an unlikely event may be correct. I fear however, hoping to be proved wrong, that the only fact which will do the trick is the finding of the aircraft, which may take some time.
A) The theory of going North and landing somewhere remote for re-use as a weapon is interesting but I am assuming all strips of sufficient length are known as a result of a Cold War spanning many decades after the advent of high resolution satellite imagery and have been investigated by now by satellite, and ones with convenient hangarage more directly (although we may not know). One would hope that (at least) until it is found all the military around will be on high readiness and alert for any unexpected primary contact or questionable secondary and a T7 trying to creep along slowly at low level pretending to be a GA VFR flight with no tx is likely to get noticed, so 2nd part of plan seems less likely to work, we hope. But that's not to say any terrorist who has done what seems like the difficult bit was sufficiently rational and self-critical to have figured that out, and may have a plan. So I'd say this is still possible but not that likely.
B)Or did they carefully plan everything else but then have a "Doh!" moment by overestimating fuel on board or burning more than planned in initial high climb then lower level flight and fail to make a visible target perhaps in Europe and crash somewhere dark in remote Eastern Europe, without a fireball after engines flameout, still waiting to be discovered. Seems possible, question is could they have disabled ELTs first (and would they have bothered if intending to hit somewhere else anyway).
C)Indian Ocean if you want to make it hard to be found, this could be the pilot wanting it to be a long time to have cause discovered so his estranged family don't suffer, but arguably a dive at Vne into ground in remote jungle with lots of fuel still on board possibly with some erratic inputs, less planned and muffled struggle sounds on CVR (and maybe even a radio call suggesting distress) in case it survives would seem simpler unless he really wanted to keep a mystery alive. So possible but frankly seems unlikely. I would remain sceptical of any conjecture based on his t-shirts, family situation, etc as I suspect a sizeable proportion of professional pilots who won't ever plan or execute a complex disappearance have personal lives which could be construed as indicative of latent dissatisfaction with something. Now if his flight sim happens to have a route corresponding to route flown and relevant recent manual extracts, then we might reconsider but until then nothing to me supports this.
D)Or someone else who actively wants extended mystery, perhaps a true Bond villain type organisation who wants to show it can make a plane disappear... yet then apparently keeps quiet? Of course they may be in secret discussions as to what they want with some vague threat to repeat if motive is financial and they seriously think (unlikely) they can elude most of the world's co-ordinated efforts to track them. Seems unlikely.
E)Personally I doubt whether a religious or political fanatical terrorist organisation would go to such systematic lengths and not want a show either with a dramatic climax or publicly claiming responsibility and I suspect all chatter from all known such organisations has been minutely scrutinised for any hint. Time may reveal more, but if something useful were known or even suspected, there would be a lot of pressure to reveal at least something by now to allay public unease that authorities didn't have a clue.
F)Or a true "terrorist" wanting extended uncertainty - I suspect many rational pilots and passengers are more uneasy about flying and this may give a similar knock to aviation as 9/11. Perhaps a fanatical environmental group unheard of previously, many environmental activists are intelligent people with the wit I guess to access information, and off the radar (no pun intended) of conventionally blinkered security services. A recent BBC Horizon as it happened showed a group of trained US security people all failed to spot a similar threat and only a newbie did as the experienced analysts all looked for the usual suspects. Worryingly it seems hard to rule this out, though I suspect if it were correct, it is unlikely to be repeated, which if appreciated makes it less worrying, I suppose! Possible but also seems unlikely.
G) Interestingly the northern track plus any flying beyond last "ping" gives a good chance of aircraft being in China. Now given that China was the original destination, and the passengers were naturally full of people who know the country, it is not impossible that there was a plan to throw people off the scent then head back to a point in China for some purpose. Now just suppose (admittedly no evidence I have seen to support this) Chinese military discovered it some time after it had first entered Chinese airspace then hastily intercepted and shot it down. Would they A) freely admit to the watching world their air defences are porous and that they have just shot down an aircraft with hundreds of their own citizens on board or B) keep quiet and go on the offensive and criticise another county's incompetence for the incident? I don't know and it would be speculation from me or anyone else without inside knowledge to pursue this thought, but I can't quite see yet why this can be ruled out.
Before anyone shouts (although it seems this may be summarily deleted) I fully accept there is no evidence (to my knowledge) convincingly supporting or disproving any of these theories yet, which is my point. It would be good if at least some of them could be concisely sensibly rejected with even a single hard fact, rather than just someone else's supposition that they are unlikely. I personally don't see a better explanation out there yet, though there may be one. So applying Sherlock's principle, one of these unlikely theories for an unlikely event may be correct. I fear however, hoping to be proved wrong, that the only fact which will do the trick is the finding of the aircraft, which may take some time.
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The only thought more appalling than the fact of this tragedy, is the terrible thought that we may never know what happened.
If, as seems to be accepted, someone deliberately turned off all comms and flew the a/c seven hours away from the original flight path, then it's a reasonable conclusion that they do not want it to be found.
I assume all circuits in a modern aircraft have circuit breakers. This presumably includes the CVR/CDR. It would seem logical to hit that breaker as well. That would be the ultimate insult to the victims, assuming the airframe is ever found.
If, as seems to be accepted, someone deliberately turned off all comms and flew the a/c seven hours away from the original flight path, then it's a reasonable conclusion that they do not want it to be found.
I assume all circuits in a modern aircraft have circuit breakers. This presumably includes the CVR/CDR. It would seem logical to hit that breaker as well. That would be the ultimate insult to the victims, assuming the airframe is ever found.
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Back to SC Sea
Originally Posted by Sheep Guts
Reasons not to stop searching in the South China Sea
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Not sure if anyone here has given Tomnod a go or not - I have but found it annoying that I couldn't see where my map related to / the actual area I was searching. I figured if someone has a theory of where the plane went down then it would be nice to be able to search that specific area, not just a randomly generated map.
I saw someone post a way round this so thought I'd share it incase anyone is interested. I can't see this info in the thread already so hopefully this post will stay!
Load a map at Tomnod
Change the word "challenge" in the url to "api". This brings up a page with the latitude & longitude on it which you can then google. You can then decide whether to search this area or select "Jump to random map" and start the process again
I saw someone post a way round this so thought I'd share it incase anyone is interested. I can't see this info in the thread already so hopefully this post will stay!
Load a map at Tomnod
Change the word "challenge" in the url to "api". This brings up a page with the latitude & longitude on it which you can then google. You can then decide whether to search this area or select "Jump to random map" and start the process again
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With CNN covering other matters, I switched on FOX and Judge Pirro's 2 hour MH370 special. BTW, some of the annoying "talking heads" and hosts/hostesses on TV make the most annoying folks in this forum (probably including me) seem like Mother Teresa...
...interviewing her 2nd "guest expert" she started off a query with "we know there was a unexpected turn pre-programmed into the flight..." - the guest started to say "thats not clear" and she argues "yes it is" and (with host perogative) changes the subject and moves forward.
SO I grant you this is an un-sourced issue (reported by ABC NEWS and FOX and "their sources") that could make this less than a FACT.
That "maybe fact" and the timing of the off-ACARS-14-minutes-transponder-THEN "alright goodnight" has had me convinced for some time that deliberate actions not electro-mechanical mishap (like coffee or batteries) is afoot. The authorities who have seen other data appear to believe this, though I dont trust them and I dont exactly rule out a KAL shootdown mentality in this day and age.
SO: has anyone sourced a reliable time-sensible unexpected-pre-programmed-turn?
Reliable is of course the operative word.
...interviewing her 2nd "guest expert" she started off a query with "we know there was a unexpected turn pre-programmed into the flight..." - the guest started to say "thats not clear" and she argues "yes it is" and (with host perogative) changes the subject and moves forward.
SO I grant you this is an un-sourced issue (reported by ABC NEWS and FOX and "their sources") that could make this less than a FACT.
That "maybe fact" and the timing of the off-ACARS-14-minutes-transponder-THEN "alright goodnight" has had me convinced for some time that deliberate actions not electro-mechanical mishap (like coffee or batteries) is afoot. The authorities who have seen other data appear to believe this, though I dont trust them and I dont exactly rule out a KAL shootdown mentality in this day and age.
SO: has anyone sourced a reliable time-sensible unexpected-pre-programmed-turn?
Reliable is of course the operative word.