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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:24
  #4861 (permalink)  
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What has been of most concern is the seeming insistence to not adhere to a single timeframe.

Why has UTC not been used since day 1 to describe events?

The first few days were a catalogue of mistaken timezones.

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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:25
  #4862 (permalink)  
 
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For those who think the captain's home simulator is a red flag due to how complete it appears, take a quick look at Viperpit(s).org. You'll see multiple examples of F-16 cockpits that put the captain as well as Hollywood to shame, complete with fully operational displays, gauges, buttons and switches, all connected to free software (BMS 4.32) that does a damn good job of simulating an F-16C Block 50/52.


The photo's I have seen of the Captains sim indicate to me it is little more than a toy.

I do NOT understand why someone with as much experience as this guy flying the real thing would build such a box, let alone use it! He could have used the Sim's at work, clearly he was senior enough to probably even bring friends in if he particularly wanted to.

I understand fighter combat sims and the like - they are good fun, but it is always acknowledged they are toys. In fact the 'good' sims to my mind are the ones that don't pretend to be anything else.

I accept there might be weirdo anorak wearing pilots out there who might want to make a cardboard (although cardboard is accurate, and most pilots have used them in basic training), milk carton, string and elastic band box painted to look like the one you are forced to spend 1000 hours a year in, but in 30 years I have NEVER met one personally. He clearly spent money on it, and for what it is its no doubt good, but if you have kids and don't fly I would liken it to something 'Mr Maker' on TV would create in comparison to a real FFS, let alone the aircraft.

That sim would give you basic terrain awareness - though no more than Google Earth and I would assume Flight Management Computer functions. NOTHING else would even remotely be like 'the real thing' nor even the 'real' MAS sim the guy could access whenever he wanted to. Any 'practice' he would get from that construction would be considered (IMHO) 'Negative Training'. In other words, using it would lessen your physical flying skills on the 'real thing'.

Ive got 15,000 odd hours in Boeings and extra in full flight sims. The last thing I would be doing is building one at home so I can pretend I am at work when I am at home. I have enough manuals to read already without having to create others myself to explain to me how to fly a box I built for fun

As an aside, I spoke with a mate of mine who flies tripplers and I asked him how his gold stealing plans are progressing. He said he would have 50-60 tonnes on board every time he takes off from one particular airport but T7's are actually quite hard to hide. He's not giving the problem his full attention obviously, but it's not something you would just wake up one night and think 'Ive got a really great idea to try sometime'...
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:27
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My understanding was that ELTs had automatic function -other than manual, impact and water. Could someone deactivate all, including fixed ELT near tail?

Secondly, does Cospas-Sarsat monitor the southern Indian Ocean area?
re cospas-sarsat, yes.

But given all of the other recent evidence (that the satcom may have been transmitting after the a/c would have been out of fuel) it is less likely that it crashed and more likely that it landed, so the ELT is unlikely to have been automatically activated.

Now if one of the pax had their own 406 MHz PLB....
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:31
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as per previous posts, it seems likely that the Australian JORN radar system was not operating at the time
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:33
  #4865 (permalink)  
 
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One small thing that caught my eye in this sea of dross and odd bits of logic was post #1388.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v...type=2&theater

How does the security camera video footage from inside the terminal get onto facebook in such short order?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:37
  #4866 (permalink)  
 
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Also see map from earlier ...



Red circle is 40 degree arc for IOR. Blue is limit of 6 hours flight from Phuket at 900km/h. Pink is limit of coverage of POR. White is 3000km radar coverage from Laverton.

So there are places on the red arc which are reachable by 8:11am but not covered by JORN.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:38
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I realize I'm flying pretty low tech planes by some standards but PLEASE TELL ME HOW SOMEONE KNOWS IF THERE IS PREPROGRAMMED TURN IN the FMS without having the FMS present?

rigbyrigs, how does someone know without being on the plane if it is pre programmed?

I don['t know

anyone?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:38
  #4868 (permalink)  
 
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Much like Huck Finn in Tom Sawyer;

WHY would you fly South?

Suicide = why wait?
Ditch = why risk it? - bloody dangerous if there is no reason.
Time = risk of discovery/(some) crew getting back control?
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:39
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ELTs and surveillance

The US has ample satellite means of reconnaissance to identify the plane, if it ws at any known airport. An off-airport landing would likely trigger the ELT, unless it can be deactivated in flight. It can't on my plane.
I can easily arm or disarm my ELT from the left seat...

I can't envision the airplane getting into or beyond Pakistan or any of the other 'stans without U.S. surveillance assets seeing it. Same for the respective militaries of India and China and their territories. But that doesn't mean it's not there. They may have seen it but not recognized it for what it was, or they allowed it in with full knowledge of what was going on.

For one thing, it's not impossible to file and fly as a different aircraft, even one operated by a government, with full ATC knowledge. And it's unlikely any U.S. surveillance assets were looking in the right direction at the right time to pick out this T7 from the clutter, but there may have been some non-scheduled flights acting like a big Boeing. I think theories about it tailgating another aircraft are a bit far-fetched because of the skills required, but masquerading as yet another Boeing doesn't seem all that difficult.

At the end of the day, if this isn't a result of a mechanical failure, a botched hijacking that ended over water, or suicide, it's a very sophisticated and well-executed plan, to an unknown end. If so, the airplane likely is on the ground somewhere, well-camouflaged or hangared, perhaps having landed before dawn at a secluded location, like a military base. That means state actor, or at least someone acting with a government's tacit approval and a sophisticated, well -planned, -disguised and -implemented endeavor. So far.

Who has the resources and testicular fortitude to plan and pull this off?

Ultimately, though, I think the highest probability here is Captain Speaking did a deadstick lawn dart into the IO, and some trace will be identified in 48 hours or so.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:40
  #4870 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Sheep Guts
Reasons not to stop searching in the South China Sea
They dont want to search that area despite all the eyewitness account and other evidence points to that direction. Reason, someone doesnt want the truth to come out on what they did to MH370.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:40
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Centre of arcs

People sorry if this has already been discussed on any of the previous 171 pages of this thread, but:

what does the centre point of those arcs represent and how was it determined?

Thanks
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:44
  #4872 (permalink)  
 
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Been covered, it's the geosynchronous satellite position.

Please resize the graphic
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:44
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tomnod lat long

Hmmm tomnod hasn't given up on the S China Sea
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:44
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foxnewsinsider.com NOW joins ABC NEWS in reporting the "pre-programmed turn":

"Investigators believe that someone intentionally switched off the jetliner’s tracking devices and then flew the plane for several hours. The left turn that was made was reportedly pre-programmed into the plane’s navigational computer, raising a lot of questions."

I somewhat agree with BARREL questioning that, and the timing, as the 40 degree course correction occurred at the waypoint first, and the ACARS was gone by then. (although I suggested a convoluted workaround possibility).

I wish ABC NEWS and now FOX would confirm this reliably, name a source, whatever. Its NOT a trivial point!

UPDATE to GLENDALE. The event log for ACARS supposedly shows the FMC entry. Thats why the timing of the ACARS system being alive/active, and other entries, is so critical now.

Last edited by rigbyrigz; 17th Mar 2014 at 01:47. Reason: update glendale
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:46
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Someone smarter than me post the Asia chart

http://www.planningcharts.de/index.p...5&catid=17&m=0
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:48
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The IOR satellite which heard the pings is more than 38000km straight above a point at 64E on the equator. That point is the centre of the red circle. If a circle is drawn with that centre it represents points that are equidistant from IOR.

The ping at 8:11am came from a point on that red circle.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:51
  #4877 (permalink)  
 
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Inmarsat pings

I find it strange that investigators talk about two possible routes based on Inmarsat pings. These are not routes, but merely candidates for the final resting point (+/- one hour's movement).

My understanding is that the satellite logged the signal round-trip time, which allowed to calculate the distance between the airplane and the satellite. So for every one of these 6 pings, there is a ring on the Earth surface where the airplane must have been during the ping. The portions of the ring that are too far away for the fuel load are cut away, and so we get the curve on the map as shown by investigators.

From the 6 pings, there must be 6 different rings. But we are only shown curves from a single ring (probably from the final one). Is there any information about the other 5 pings? It would at least help determine the lateral motion of the plane (how much it moved "towards" or "away" from the satellite).

If all 6 pings had the same round-trip time, it probably means the plane stood still (maybe flying a holding pattern until the fuel ran out). It is very improbable that the plane was programmed to fly a curve that would keep the same distance from the Inmarsat satellite for hours. This isn't a Great Circle route at all.

Unless of course the whole Inmarsat story is a cover for a leak from intelligence sources.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:52
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Originally Posted by glendalegoon
I realize I'm flying pretty low tech planes by some standards but PLEASE TELL ME HOW SOMEONE KNOWS IF THERE IS PREPROGRAMMED TURN IN the FMS without having the FMS present?

rigbyrigs, how does someone know without being on the plane if it is pre programmed?

I don['t know

anyone?
Yes, we now have news media reporting that the Malaysians are saying the turn was "Pre-programmed". What they aren't aren't saying is how they know this.

I fly the B777 and I can't think of a way for anyone to know what was programmed on the FMC of MH 370.

Some airlines can upload a flight plan directly to the aircraft, but even so, the pilot has to request the upload and activate the route.

This just seems to me like more bad information and more bad media reporting.

Last edited by Lost in Saigon; 17th Mar 2014 at 02:04.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:52
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Originally Posted by V-Jet
The photo's I have seen of the Captains sim indicate to me it is little more than a toy.

I do NOT understand why someone with as much experience as this guy flying the real thing would build such a box, let alone use it! He could have used the Sim's at work, clearly he was senior enough to probably even bring friends in if he particularly wanted to.
I agree, it makes no sense at all. There is nothing he could learn from it for any conceivable purpose. A man goes home from work and then starts playing on his sim, which is the same as his work???
It is quite bizarre, and indicates someone obsessed.
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Old 17th Mar 2014, 01:56
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@YYZjim
Professional pilots should bear in mind that the MH370 S&R fiasco will likely result in the public's demanding changes. It might be wise for professional pilots to propose their own solution, rather than wait for governments and regulators to impose new rules. Perhaps the pilots' unions should propose that:
1. the automatic reporting system installed by the airframe manufacturer, which transmits data through the Inmarsat satellite system, be modified so that it sends a GPS position as well as hull data;
2. that the frequency of the Inmarsat reports be increased from every half-hour to, say, once every ten minutes;
3. that this reporting system be tied to the aircraft's main power bus (and thus placed outside human control); and
4. that the pilots' unions would pay the marginal cost which, at $2.00 per transmission, is not very much at all.
This service would:
1. increase the difficulty of a third-party hijacking;
2. protect all pilots from the stain on them which may remain if the mystery of MH370 is never sorted out; and
3. provide much comfort to future passengers.
Damn straight, Sir

This probably warrants a thread of its own as it is not necessarily unique to this event (thought it will be triggered by it).

From a technical point of view the frequency of transmissions need not be in static intervals.
Transponder signals are somewhat continuous (short intervals).
ACARS can be dynamic in intervals depending on the "health" of the airframe. If all is good space them out or if faults/irregularities are detected send as often as possible.

While in flight, I see no reason that anyone should have control over that type of communication.

Last edited by MrDK; 17th Mar 2014 at 04:18.
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