Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost
It sounds like the world has a BROKEN ARROW on its hands - like in the movie with John Travolta, where plane is hijacked for its cargo
Last edited by auraflyer; 17th Mar 2014 at 03:36. Reason: messed up quote
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Last SATCOM position determination
The arc's showing north and south 'routes' potential locations for the final SATCOM 'ping' are only very approximate guides. Added to this, in the most extreme scenario the final 'ping' could have been sent up to 59 mins before the aircraft had actually landed or its engines were shutdown or had flamed out. (I.E. final event could potentially occur only 1 minute before the next ping was due to be transmitted)
This being the case we need to add that extra 59mins potential range, so at 480kts add another 480nm!
Also if still at altitude and the engines flamed out on this 59th minute then at FL390 you could easily add an additional glide distance of a further 150nm. (still air) Therefore, in this extreme scenario there is (very roughly) a potential further 630nm of omni directional error. Effectively you can redraw these arcs, giving them a 630nm radius (or put another way 1260nm wide!) Perhaps someone could apply these distance and post the revised arc's.
This being the case we need to add that extra 59mins potential range, so at 480kts add another 480nm!
Also if still at altitude and the engines flamed out on this 59th minute then at FL390 you could easily add an additional glide distance of a further 150nm. (still air) Therefore, in this extreme scenario there is (very roughly) a potential further 630nm of omni directional error. Effectively you can redraw these arcs, giving them a 630nm radius (or put another way 1260nm wide!) Perhaps someone could apply these distance and post the revised arc's.
Last edited by Heli-phile; 17th Mar 2014 at 04:58. Reason: wrong FL entered
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Tomnod's data all relates to the 9th of March. Their initial batch was just in a different location to the second. So that plane in that segment was flying in that spot on the 9th of March.
Props are for boats!
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ANA,
CNNs report may refer to the fact it was stationary wreckage the ping was coming from.Thats why it was the same angle.
Anyway let's wait see what eventuates. It's pure lunacy to start searching the Indian Ocean after not even properly covering the sea floor in South China, majority of the search has been by air. They need sea craft in the area.
Gosh I've had enough of this thread bye bye and good luck to all concerned.
My hearts condolences and sympathy to all the families affected.
CNNs report may refer to the fact it was stationary wreckage the ping was coming from.Thats why it was the same angle.
Anyway let's wait see what eventuates. It's pure lunacy to start searching the Indian Ocean after not even properly covering the sea floor in South China, majority of the search has been by air. They need sea craft in the area.
Gosh I've had enough of this thread bye bye and good luck to all concerned.
My hearts condolences and sympathy to all the families affected.
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@Kulwin Park - We have only a few clues of substance, and a lot of missing information. Trying to draw conclusions without all the information that is currently in the hands of top investigators is pretty fruitless.
We can rely on this much. It's not what we are being told, it is what we are deliberately NOT being told, or what is being obfuscated.
To recap:
1. The aircraft made repeated and obviously well-directed attempts at total concealment. In that respect it has been superbly successful.
Whether those well-directed attempts were by hijackers directing the Captain or FO, or by the Capt of FO acting of their own volition, isn't known.
2. Cockpit security is the major issue here. I don't recall too many successful attempts at cockpit entry since 9/11.
Either someone used a particularly clever ruse to gain cockpit entry, or it was purely the crews efforts that made the aircraft disappear.
One FO who has been shown to have a casual attitude to cockpit security is a major concern here.
3. Nothing has effectively been stated about the cargo. The only statement issued was "there is no hazardous cargo on board".
From that statement we note that the value of the cargo was omitted.
4. Terrorists are the only people who are happy to play with hundreds of innocent people lives, like a cat plays with a mouse.
It's stretching the bounds of credibility that two professional flight crew, previously showing no signs of depression, extremist anger on forums, or all the signs of extremism (and wearing a T-shirt saying "Democracy is Dead" doesn't make you an extremist) would suddenly hijack a very large aircraft without leaving some important clues.
I've looked and looked and not seen those important clues.
5. The most likely scenario is a particularly clever hijacking by a well-organised extremist Islamic group, to a remote site, such as a dry salt lake bed, where a B777 could land successfully.
The terrorists used the Captains skills to good advantage, under threat of death. He complied because he wasn't prepared to behave like Indiana Jones.
There's not one of the 634 airstrips mentioned, where the arrival of a B777 wouldn't raise immediate concern and communication - UNLESS the terrorists had already taken over the airstrip, and silenced communications from it.
The aim of the hijack would be to secure the valuables in the hold - because terrorism requires financing, and the terrorists finances have been drying up due to increased financial systems surveillance, and the blocking of funding transfers.
The hold could likely have contained a large shipment of easily-utilised banknotes, not just gold or diamonds.
The bonus would be a free aircraft in the deal, to use as a weapon sometime in the future. It has been immediately camouflaged upon landing to facilitate the theft and the disappearance.
Feel free to shoot me down.
We can rely on this much. It's not what we are being told, it is what we are deliberately NOT being told, or what is being obfuscated.
To recap:
1. The aircraft made repeated and obviously well-directed attempts at total concealment. In that respect it has been superbly successful.
Whether those well-directed attempts were by hijackers directing the Captain or FO, or by the Capt of FO acting of their own volition, isn't known.
2. Cockpit security is the major issue here. I don't recall too many successful attempts at cockpit entry since 9/11.
Either someone used a particularly clever ruse to gain cockpit entry, or it was purely the crews efforts that made the aircraft disappear.
One FO who has been shown to have a casual attitude to cockpit security is a major concern here.
3. Nothing has effectively been stated about the cargo. The only statement issued was "there is no hazardous cargo on board".
From that statement we note that the value of the cargo was omitted.
4. Terrorists are the only people who are happy to play with hundreds of innocent people lives, like a cat plays with a mouse.
It's stretching the bounds of credibility that two professional flight crew, previously showing no signs of depression, extremist anger on forums, or all the signs of extremism (and wearing a T-shirt saying "Democracy is Dead" doesn't make you an extremist) would suddenly hijack a very large aircraft without leaving some important clues.
I've looked and looked and not seen those important clues.
5. The most likely scenario is a particularly clever hijacking by a well-organised extremist Islamic group, to a remote site, such as a dry salt lake bed, where a B777 could land successfully.
The terrorists used the Captains skills to good advantage, under threat of death. He complied because he wasn't prepared to behave like Indiana Jones.
There's not one of the 634 airstrips mentioned, where the arrival of a B777 wouldn't raise immediate concern and communication - UNLESS the terrorists had already taken over the airstrip, and silenced communications from it.
The aim of the hijack would be to secure the valuables in the hold - because terrorism requires financing, and the terrorists finances have been drying up due to increased financial systems surveillance, and the blocking of funding transfers.
The hold could likely have contained a large shipment of easily-utilised banknotes, not just gold or diamonds.
The bonus would be a free aircraft in the deal, to use as a weapon sometime in the future. It has been immediately camouflaged upon landing to facilitate the theft and the disappearance.
Feel free to shoot me down.
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@Shadoko
That does look like a 777 in flight!!!
From the time stamp it is over 24 hours after the last known contact, so probably another a/c.
If it was in the water you would see the wake/waves breaking on it.
Tomrod site :
Tomnod
Are the a/c flying visible on the pictures? On the pic from the link above, on the "submap" 637975 (it is the fifth rectangle from the right edge, and the twentyfourth from the bottom), there is an "intact" a/c, even visible as a very small white point on the thumbnail map). And I don't see its shadow, but there is a black "band" on the pic, just west of the a/c.
From the api vs chalenge link, it this one : "id":637524,"overlay_id":1272,"lat":11.603921,"lon":92.7 7524 7,"status":1,"msg":"Retrieved map ID = 637524"
Tomnod
Are the a/c flying visible on the pictures? On the pic from the link above, on the "submap" 637975 (it is the fifth rectangle from the right edge, and the twentyfourth from the bottom), there is an "intact" a/c, even visible as a very small white point on the thumbnail map). And I don't see its shadow, but there is a black "band" on the pic, just west of the a/c.
From the api vs chalenge link, it this one : "id":637524,"overlay_id":1272,"lat":11.603921,"lon":92.7 7524 7,"status":1,"msg":"Retrieved map ID = 637524"
From the time stamp it is over 24 hours after the last known contact, so probably another a/c.
If it was in the water you would see the wake/waves breaking on it.
Last edited by xcitation; 17th Mar 2014 at 03:56.
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RE:.....
..........
The bonus would be a free aircraft in the deal, to use as a weapon sometime in the future. It has been immediately camouflaged upon landing to facilitate the theft and the disappearance..."
Oy Vey. U make me yearn for the coffee spill theorists to come back on!
..........
The bonus would be a free aircraft in the deal, to use as a weapon sometime in the future. It has been immediately camouflaged upon landing to facilitate the theft and the disappearance..."
Oy Vey. U make me yearn for the coffee spill theorists to come back on!
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ONETRACK, I think you are mistaken.
regarding FO's casual attitude about cockpit security. are you aware the captain would have to "OK" visitors in the cockpit and not the first officer?
are you aware that some countries allow for cockpit visits, the USA doesn't, but it did 50 years ago, so it is not unheard of (thanks to United Convair 240 crew that let this former 8 year old boy stand in the cockpit, looking at an orange radar screen with hood)
IT IS QUITE HEALTHY in my view for a pilot, age 27, to want to have cute girls in the cockpit. FOR THE RECORD malaysian airlines didn't punish him 3 years ago and only expressed some outrage recently (a PR ploy if you ask me).
IF you want to have cute girls in the cockpit, you probably don't want to hijack your own plane.
regarding FO's casual attitude about cockpit security. are you aware the captain would have to "OK" visitors in the cockpit and not the first officer?
are you aware that some countries allow for cockpit visits, the USA doesn't, but it did 50 years ago, so it is not unheard of (thanks to United Convair 240 crew that let this former 8 year old boy stand in the cockpit, looking at an orange radar screen with hood)
IT IS QUITE HEALTHY in my view for a pilot, age 27, to want to have cute girls in the cockpit. FOR THE RECORD malaysian airlines didn't punish him 3 years ago and only expressed some outrage recently (a PR ploy if you ask me).
IF you want to have cute girls in the cockpit, you probably don't want to hijack your own plane.
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FOR THE RECORD malaysian airlines didn't punish him 3 years ago and only expressed some outrage recently (a PR ploy if you ask me)
Yes, the Malaysian PR is in full swing right about now. Wouldn't YOU be trying to soothe a LOT of nervous future SLF in their position?
The Malaysian political PR is in full swing too - they are using every attempt possible, to blacken a Captains name who just happens to be a strong supporter of an Opposition Party leader, that the ruling party wants to see eliminated for good.
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Psychology
A man whose wife has just announced that their marriage is over, that she is leaving and taking his 3 beloved children with her. This man, a normally decent individual, is boiling with rage, frustration, humiliation and loss. His life as he sees it is over - pointless. His anger immense.
The next day, his first alone, he is on the flight. People are behaving normally. It enrages him more. He is not thinking rationally, the rage is all-consuming. He decides.
His plan is simple enough. At the appropriate point, go invisible, fly back over Malaysia and then take the plane to 45,000 feet. He doesn't want to die by smashing the plane into the water. Lack of oxygen is an easier death.
And he doesn't want it to look like suicide. He programs a flight path into the autopilot, and hopes that the plane will return from 45,000ft and follow that path until it flames out in the middle of the ocean, never to be found.
He will be missed - oh yes - his family will cry for him. They never should have left.
The next day, his first alone, he is on the flight. People are behaving normally. It enrages him more. He is not thinking rationally, the rage is all-consuming. He decides.
His plan is simple enough. At the appropriate point, go invisible, fly back over Malaysia and then take the plane to 45,000 feet. He doesn't want to die by smashing the plane into the water. Lack of oxygen is an easier death.
And he doesn't want it to look like suicide. He programs a flight path into the autopilot, and hopes that the plane will return from 45,000ft and follow that path until it flames out in the middle of the ocean, never to be found.
He will be missed - oh yes - his family will cry for him. They never should have left.
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one track
you don't know what malaysian did or did not know 3 years ago. and remember the captain let those girls in, the copilot didn't order the captain to let them in.
sorry charlie, it doesn't work like that. and even a horny young man of 24 (then) wouldn't throw away his new job flying a 777 to hit on some girls. it had to be "accepted" by some people in the know then
you don't know what malaysian did or did not know 3 years ago. and remember the captain let those girls in, the copilot didn't order the captain to let them in.
sorry charlie, it doesn't work like that. and even a horny young man of 24 (then) wouldn't throw away his new job flying a 777 to hit on some girls. it had to be "accepted" by some people in the know then
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We only have inference, not "know conclusively that"
In other words, it had been programmed to turn by someone in the cockpit. This aircraft did not go into a heading mode. It was a deliberate, and premeditated turn, if the investigators' leaks to the media are to be believed.
This is why they know 'conclusively' that the airplane was hijacked/piloted on its rogue course.
This is why they know 'conclusively' that the airplane was hijacked/piloted on its rogue course.
To show you what happens (inference, of course!) when you program a coding sequence in error, look at KAL 007. Yes, we cannot conclusively establish that as error, either! Although, deliberately tempting nervous and touchy Russians at the height of Cold-War tensions by flying over an off-limits Kamchatka Peninsula bristling with heavy weaponry strikes me as foolhardiness way past what any serious pilot would do. Just saying'.
And once again, I emphasize the difference between "Fact" and "inference." Specifically, we have precisely ZERO FACTS that any act here was deliberate by the flight crew. Or any passenger. Or aliens brought in by teleporting. Or much of anything else. What we KNOW as FACT is that it took off, climbed out normally, topped, levelled, went to the proper waypoint, communicated with no stress in voice - and vanished.
Everything else past that is inference. Inference is what we think "might have happened" and we are converting that, in frustration, into "what did happen." Sorry, guys, but I am not going past the facts.
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A man whose wife has just announced that their marriage is over, that she is leaving and taking his 3 beloved children with her. This man, a normally decent individual, is boiling with rage, frustration, humiliation and loss. His life as he sees it is over - pointless. His anger immense
The Captains closest friend has expressed his opinion that the Captain was a fine, honourable individual, and he would fly anywhere with him. He said nothing about him being a hothead - which he would need to be to fit your scenario.
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dont slag off the crew
One of the post before was saying that untill the full facts are known and the investigation is made public then we really should not lay any blame on to the crew for this incident.
Malay police are investigating every one on the aircraft and involved in the dispatch of the flight. This is a normal line of investigation so untill its all out in the open and facts are proven please lets lay off the crew. They are as much victims as are the family of the crew just as the pax and pax familys.
Oh and so what if he had an F16 flight sim in his home. In some of the airlines that I have worked in the past 30 years there were many flight crews that lived and breathed flying to the extent of flight vid games and so forth. And I would say that they were all total pros too, not weirdos. To obtain and maintain the CPL cost more than an arm and a leg in the first place so anyone up front must really love his job.
Back off untill the full facts are known and proven, please.
Malay police are investigating every one on the aircraft and involved in the dispatch of the flight. This is a normal line of investigation so untill its all out in the open and facts are proven please lets lay off the crew. They are as much victims as are the family of the crew just as the pax and pax familys.
Oh and so what if he had an F16 flight sim in his home. In some of the airlines that I have worked in the past 30 years there were many flight crews that lived and breathed flying to the extent of flight vid games and so forth. And I would say that they were all total pros too, not weirdos. To obtain and maintain the CPL cost more than an arm and a leg in the first place so anyone up front must really love his job.
Back off untill the full facts are known and proven, please.
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a/c on Tomnod's site: I did not think it was in water, but on Google Earth, a/c in flight are blurred from their speed (and often with a red-green-blue "offset" because the three colors channels are registred one after the other). No colors here, because pics are one channel ones, but I am surprised there is no blur from speed. Perhaps the a/c was going to land in Port Blair? I don't find it on radar24.
Or it is kind of test to see if viewers are careful or to make some stats ?
Or it is kind of test to see if viewers are careful or to make some stats
?
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A man whose wife has just announced that their marriage is over, that she is leaving..................His life as he sees it is over - pointless
I'm fairly confident he's not the first Airline pilot to go through a divorce!
Red Rings
ana and Galaxy Flyer, if the distance rings can be regarded as position lines at known times, then using the max ground speed (and min GS of zero) out of the first ping ring corresponding to one of the early radar fixes, you can create a running fix on a later ring.
Actually you will produce two running fixes; one in each direction outward or along the initial ring. This will produce a probable area enclosing a 'tree-branch' set of possible tracks as you move towards later rings in this way.
This will enable someone with earlier 'ping' data to resolve the distance limit on the two final arcs (actually one arc with the adjoining satellite's coverage area already eliminated).
The Malaysians may be waiting for the USG / FAA to do this for them so that they can blame them if it goes wrong.
Actually you will produce two running fixes; one in each direction outward or along the initial ring. This will produce a probable area enclosing a 'tree-branch' set of possible tracks as you move towards later rings in this way.
This will enable someone with earlier 'ping' data to resolve the distance limit on the two final arcs (actually one arc with the adjoining satellite's coverage area already eliminated).
The Malaysians may be waiting for the USG / FAA to do this for them so that they can blame them if it goes wrong.