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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 16th Mar 2014, 21:53
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letsjet

I'd take anything the DM says with a grain of salt - or a hundred grains.
Just the spin on that article when I read it a few hours ago was enough
to put me off, truth or no truth. They are character assassinating the pilot
with no real facts.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 21:54
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Reading a few posts back the family situation was deemed not to be an issue. Also being at a political event on the day of the flight could be ruled out as what happened to MH370 can clearly not be called impulsive (imho).
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 21:54
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READ this.

From 2 hours ago Nine news Australia is reporting that the pilots wife and children moved out the day before.

There's your "stressor."

'Obsessive' pilot pictured with political slogan
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 21:55
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The news media are making a big deal that "the pilot" acknowledged a frequency change some minutes after the ACARS was disabled.

However, they're not making a big deal that he did so with "roger that", (or similar), a phrase that many have said was unusual in the circumstances.

Has voice recognition proved that it was the Captain's or FO's voice that made that acknowledgement? I very much doubt it. It could have been - and in my opinion, quite likely was - someone other than either of the operating crew.

Blaming one or both of the pilots is too convenient - it absolves the authorities of many very uncomfortable and inconvenient implications that have the potential of gutting passenger bookings and costing airlines enormous sums in increased security procedures.

I for one am not buying it.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 21:55
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ettore

Bunk. I repeat it for you alone : Would you please cool down for a while on wild theories. We're talking about 239 souls. Thanks.
I have no wild theories. That's my point: nothing seems to fit; therefore, I think the current situation was unintended. However, with Occam as a guide, I still think it worth trying to deduce what might have been the original intention, because that may then indicate where to look.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 21:56
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Can the inmarsat data be more accurate?

About 8 pages back EPPo posted today's update and says they had 6 pings that is basically 1 an hour after falling of milrad.
Please follow me through this.


If you look at the map by Volcanicash page 203 #4043 ( http://s8.postimg.org/ye87yekz9/isat.jpg )

Counting back that is 40, 45,50,55,60 65. He clearly could not have gotten that close to the centre of the elevation rings ,and still get to those final arcs, so he must have flown at tangent to them, My best guess is

1st ping 45 - west bound from final radar loss point
2nd ping 50 still west ish bound
3rd ping 55 still west ish bound
he then turns NW or SW
4th ping 50
5th ping 45
6th ping 40

and ended up on the north or south arc.

But there was a rush to the north (Andam sea) why?


Finally if you look at this link from Vinnie_boombatz p201 #4011
http://telecom.esa.int/telecom/media...-Obj4-hres.jpg


It shows the beaming arrangement of the I-4 series inmarsats (3 cover the world), there is wide beam (the whole area), a number of regional beams and finally the narrow beams. ( used I-3 diag for explanation purpose only)

To my knowledge the signals were picked up by the old I-3 sats which use 4 to cover the world and only have wide and regional beams.

As I understand the workings of the system the sat send a "hello anyone there" signal using the wide beam and if a reply is received it calculates the best regional beam to use transmits back to the response using the regional beam. Sat engineers pls confirm/correct.

The point of this post is to ask an expert if it can do that why don't we know a more accurate position ie a shorter arc based on the regional beam.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 21:56
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Wherefore art thou?

Originally Posted by flash8
Rupert Murdoch suspect the a/c in is Northern Pakistan. The guy may be loopy but could have a point.

Assuming a sophisticated hijack one would assume the a/c is on the ground somewhere now, dumping into the sea seems a rather odd statement
Facts:
1 This is terra firma

2 Unless you are a NASA space rocket in active launch mode, what goes up must come down

3 MTOW of MH370 is 297,550 kg.

4 Max range of a 777 200ER is 14,305 km (7,725 nautical miles)

5 largest dimensions of the T7 are 60.9 x 63.7 m

6 Hundreds of humans would know where it is pax, ground/air crew, atc/radar controllers and so on

Logic says:

1 MH370 kissed terra firma well within the first day of its flight

2 MH370 either used the ocean or a hangar or a crowd of other parked planes to hide.

3 in the former scenario it may never be found. In the case of the latter, who is covering up?

Or am I the only one lost (other than MH370)?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 21:57
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RE: "another source for story of pilot's wife and three children..."

At Singapore Seen | Family of MH370 captain moved out of home before disappearance

per this link, it seems that the MALAY MAIL interviewed the maid and determined the same fact (or rumor or news) that the Mirror reports.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 22:03
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Logic

In the military I can tell you that operations are generally Monday to Friday; this event occurred on the weekend which is the period of incompetence, including those learners monitoring radar, especially from areas not exactly known for their military prowess. Therefore most of this data and reporting needs to be treated with scepticism.
A hijacking usually is done to demand something using the lives of the passengers as collateral. If the hijacking was done to divert the cargo, it is highly unlikely that a somebody would sacrifice the lives of 200+ people purely for money, for a religion yes, but not asset gain.
The search should remain in the location where contact was lost.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 22:04
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Perhaps those who fly in the area regularly (I do not) could 'rate' the quality of the ATC authorities in the area?
As pointed out by a previous poster here, the Yangon FIR appears to me to be conspicuously worse than the others as far as comms. Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Ho Chi Minh seem to have very good overwater communications in my experience. Singapore has the best ATC lah, those folks are great for taking you around the weather when they have you on radar. I sometimes have trouble understanding the Lumpur controllers, it may just be the accent.

However, this doesn't mean that the Burmese military side might not be awake and watching closely even though ATC will not answer.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 22:04
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bunk exceeder
SARSAT/коспас seems not to have been mentioned. Why wouldn't it be able to pick up the 406 MHz ELT in a 777 were one to go off?
IF the ELT went off, then Sarsat MIGHT pick it up. The system is not flawless, on both the beacon and satellite sides. There has been no mention from the authorities about an ELT signal, so presumably a signal has not been received. When a signal is detected, alerts go to multiple locations, so there isn't a concern that someone somewhere missed the alert.

Mike
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 22:09
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Now, if we can call fact the diversion to the west, the airplane surely would have been picked up by radars if it had overflown PAK/IND or other country with military air force.

Hence I believe, again, IF it flew westward, that it lies somewhere in the bay of bengal. Although the pings from the satellite seem to indicate it flew for 5h, I just can't believe no military force could have spotted it, if over their territory.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 22:09
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I earlier commented about there being access to the E/E bay located outside the cockpit and that this was questionable. However, it makes sense after reading this:

"This access is potentially needed for extreme emergencies, such as by the cabin crew to fight an E/E bay fire."

Question is do you put possibility of emergency above chances of sabotage...?
At the risk of adding 'facts' to this discussion.

Many airlines have chosen (or been mandated by their local CAA) to lock the MEC access hatch from underneath. It is often a bolt that requires two spanners to undo it or it can be a spring loaded shoot-bolt. I have seen both used on the same aircraft type by the same airline (not Malaysian).

Opening one of these locked hatches from the cabin would not be a quiet affair and would need considerable effort.

On the other hand if someone did manage to conceal themselves below until the time was right, the hatch is usually covered by a velcro sealed carpet. Not easy to push open from below.

Sorry to butt in.. I'll put my tinfoil hat back on now.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 22:10
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Originally Posted by bunk exceeder
SARSAT/коспас seems not to have been mentioned. Why wouldn't it be able to pick up the 406 MHz ELT in a 777 were one to go off?

yes it would but it didn't so most likely not in the drink?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 22:13
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ELT is set off by an impact (G-switch?) I think. Not being submerged.

It is the FDR/CVR pingers that are water activated.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 22:14
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I still say, makes no sense to "steal" the plane without knowing for sure you can't be tracked. How could they know for sure all the cell phones in the back were off? How did they know who had radar coverage and where? Impossible for criminal-minded to know all those countries abilities or status like that. One AWACS or P-3 in the area unknown to them could undo their whole plot.

How could you be sure someone at your intended destination wouldn't notice or report Maylasian T7 arriving/parked/refueled/departed? Surely they had to have all the details worked out and this only works if no one knows where they went. Impossible to iron all that out. One slip-up and their whole plan unravels.

Hard to say if Maylasian knows where/what happened, but all of the countries in that area with AD radar have reasons for a shoot-down, and a propensity to cover it up by keeping quiet. If they didn't shoot it down, they'd still keep quiet. I'd like to think negotiations are ongoing and a team is assembled to get to the aircraft and passengers, but that all seems just way too complex and too much drama for real life.

I agree that there will be a need to mandate/put a system onboard commercial acft for either passive or active pinging equipment. I would think a low wattage system could be installed that would be isolated from system, but able to relay info in regular intervals. Maybe initially only required for Oceanic flying or rtes with more than 100 miles of non-radar.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 22:19
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Ettore, I'm cool. I'm just wondering why a bi-national global system of ELT sniffing satellites has not been mentioned among the pictures of people straining to look out of windows on maritime aircraft and surface ships bobbing through the water? Without saying whose ELT it is, shouldn't AN ELT be detected were it to go off? The little yellow ELT in our 172 then backs it up with a GPS signal reducing the accuracy circle to 50M. I sort of assumed the one in my old Jumbo had that too.

As for attaching Lat/Long to ACARS messages and live streaming FDR info, this soon to be system would appear to allay many concerns about proper ATC and position information, without breaks in coverage, full time, at long last:

Aireon Global Leadership

Perhaps there would be merit in eventually transmitting FDR-like information real time for certain critical parameters such as red EICAS stuff.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 22:23
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Originally Posted by ackfoo
Quoting lakedude:
Triangulation doesn't require the points of measurement to be in a triangle, or even for there to be three of them
Maybe a picture will help you understand. Even if you had 100 satellites in a line there would still be a ghost point on the other side of the line of satellites with no way to determine which was the real point. The only way to determine the real point from the mirror image ghost is to have one satellite that is not on the same exact line (yes I know the earth is round and that this is really a 3 dimensional issue).

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Old 16th Mar 2014, 22:25
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Just from the perspective of technical feasibility, with no real theory (new or proposed) resulting:

a) pilot (or someone) pre-programs left-turn VAMPI before IGARI is reached. This is before 1:07 and so appears as an ACARS event

b) ACARS off or gone, no more events logged and reported

c) pilot (or someone) programs or turns 40 degree course correction for reasons unknown, but could be to lessen suspicion of Vietnam ATC. No ACARS so no record of this

d) as soon as 40 degree turn is achieved, then left 180 degrees to VAMPI, no ACARS now so no report of this...

with some "mastermind bizarre logic" ascribed to this sequence of events, it would at least "explain" what barrel_owl or others are questioning?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 22:26
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Hi, Bunk.

Glad to see you're right back on track. Took a bit of explanation. Was worth it. Thanks
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